nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2013‒12‒06
nine papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Africa and Global Economic Trends Quarterly Review - Third Quarter 2013 By AfDB
  2. Revisiting Linkages between Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in South Africa: Fresh Evidence from Combined Cointegration Test By Polat, Ali; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Ur Rehman, Ijaz; Satti, Saqlain Latif
  3. Out of Garamba, into Uganda. Poaching and trade of ivory in Garamba National Park and LRA-affected areas in Congo By Titeca, Kristof
  4. DGSE Model-Based Forecasting of Modeled and Non-Modeled Inflation Variables in South Africa By Rangan Gupta; Patrick Kanda; Mampho Modise; Alessia Paccagnini
  5. Decentralized beneficiary targeting in large-scale development programs : insights from the Malawi farm input subsidy program By Kilic, Talip; Whitney, Edward; Winters, Paul
  6. On the Causality between Domestic Credit Aggregates and Economic Growth in a Multivariate VAR Framework: Evidence from Nigeria By Evans, Olaniyi
  7. Correlations between the Petroleum Industry and the Per Capita Income in Nigeria: Cointegration and Error Correction Model Approach by Olaniyi Evans By Evans, Olaniyi
  8. Analyzing Economic Growth From Structural Unobserved Component Modeling: The Case of Senegal By Ndiaye, Cheikh Tidiane; Bates, Samuel
  9. Migrants' Home Town Associations and Local Development in Mali By Mesplé-Somps, Sandrine; Mercier, Marion; Gubert, Flore; Chauvet, Lisa

  1. By: AfDB
    Date: 2013–11–29
  2. By: Polat, Ali; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Ur Rehman, Ijaz; Satti, Saqlain Latif
    Abstract: This study revisits the impact of financial development on economic growth in South Africa by incorporating trade openness in the production function. The paper covers the period of 1970-2011. We apply the Bayer-Hanck combined cointegration approach to examine the long run relationship between the variables. Our results indicate that financial development stimulates economic growth. Capital use adds in economic growth but trade openness impedes economic growth. The demand-side hypothesis is validated in South Africa. This paper suggests that government should redirect trade policies to reap optimal fruits of financial development for long run economic growth.
    Keywords: financial development, trade openness, economic growth, South Africa
    JEL: C5
    Date: 2013–11–20
  3. By: Titeca, Kristof
    Abstract: Ivory poaching and trading in central and eastern Africa has recently received a lot of attention. On the one hand, there have been a number of analyses highlighted how ‘tusks fund terror’ for the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA). On the other hand, there have been a wide range of news reports on the confiscation of large consignments of ivory, in Entebbe airport, but particularly in Mombasa, all of which highlighting the intensified trade in ivory and the important (transit) role of Uganda. This analysis wants to better document both of these points, by linking them together: it wants to explain the poaching dynamics in Garamba National Park (GNP) in the DRC, where the LRA is active. It particularly wants to show how the LRA is a relatively minor actor in poaching – it can by far not explain the strong intensification of elephant poaching in the park: whereas from 2007 to 2012, 7 to 8 elephants were killed in the park, in the first 10 months of 2012 alone, a staggering 50 elephants were killed. Related with this, the analysis wants to show how much of the ivory passing through Uganda, or confiscated in Mombasa, comes from GNP. Therefore, while calls from the UN Security Council to investigate the role of the LRA in ivory poaching are useful in bringing attention to the poaching problem, the strict attention to the LRA is not particularly helpful, and will only have a limited impact.
    Keywords: Poaching; Uganda; DRC; ivory; ivory trade
    Date: 2013–11
  4. By: Rangan Gupta; Patrick Kanda; Mampho Modise; Alessia Paccagnini
    Abstract: Inflation forecasts are a key ingredient for monetary policymaking - especially in an inflation targeting country such as South Africa. Generally, a typical Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) only includes a core set of variables. As such, other variables, e.g. such as alternative measures of inflation that might be of interest to policymakers, do not feature in the model. Given this, we implement a closed-economy New Keynesian DSGE model-based procedure which includes variables that do not explicitly appear in the model. We estimate such a model using an in-sample covering 1971Q2 to 1999Q4, and generate recursive forecasts over 2000Q1-2011Q4. The hybrid DSGE performs extremely well in forecasting inflation variables (both core and non-modeled) in comparison with forecasts reported by other models such as AR(1).
    Keywords: DSGE model, in ation, core variables, non-core variables
    JEL: C11 C32 C53 E27 E47
    Date: 2013–11
  5. By: Kilic, Talip; Whitney, Edward; Winters, Paul
    Abstract: This paper contributes to the long-standing debate on the merits of decentralized beneficiary targeting in the administration of development programs, focusing on the large-scale Malawi Farm Input Subsidy Program. Nationally-representative household survey data are used to systematically analyze the decentralized targeting performance of the program during the 2009-2010 agricultural season. The analysis begins with a standard targeting assessment based on the rates of program participation and the benefit amounts among the eligible and non-eligible populations, and provides decompositions of the national targeting performance into the inter-district, intra-district inter-community, and intra-district intra-community components. This approach identifies the relative contributions of targeting at each level. The results show that the Farm Input Subsidy Program is not poverty targeted and that the national government, districts, and communities are nearly uniform in their failure to target the poor, with any minimal targeting (or mis-targeting) overwhelmingly materializing at the community level. The findings are robust to the choice of the eligibility indicator and the decomposition method. The multivariate analysis of household program participation reinforces these results and reveals that the relatively well-off, rather than the poor or the wealthiest, and the locally well-connected have a higher likelihood of program participation and, on average, receive a greater number of input coupons. Since a key program objective is to increase food security and income among resource-poor farmers, the lack of targeting is a concern and should underlie considerations of alternative targeting approaches that, in part or completely, rely on proxy means tests at the local level.
    Keywords: Rural Poverty Reduction,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis,Economic Theory&Research,Regional Economic Development,Services&Transfers to Poor
    Date: 2013–11–01
  6. By: Evans, Olaniyi
    Abstract: The major objective of this paper is to empirically investigate the relationship between domestic credit and economic growth in Nigeria, using annual time series data from 1970 to 2012. In order to do this, the study employs KPSS unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, VAR modeling, impulse response function, variance decomposition and granger causality. Firstly, the findings reveal that there is a bi-directional causality and positive relationship between domestic credit and the economic growth in Nigeria. That is, domestic credit does not only contribute positively to economic growth in Nigeria, but the impact is strong and statistically significant. The findings have a strong implication on financial policy in Nigeria. The major implication is that an efficient financial system is one of the foundations for building sustained economic growth. Considering regulations, institutional constraints and other macro-economic factors militating against domestic credit in the economy, government should make the environment conducive and supportive so that performance is enhanced and good lending behaviour guaranteed.
    Keywords: Domestic Credit, Economic growth, Johansen cointegration test, VAR modeling, impulse response function, variance decomposition and granger causality, financial system and Nigeria
    JEL: E5 E51 G21 O1 O42
    Date: 2013–11
  7. By: Evans, Olaniyi
    Abstract: In the literature, there has been an acquiescence that the greater the dependence on oil and mineral resources, the worse the growth performance of an economy. With time series data of Oil Revenue (proxy for petroleum industry), Non-oil Revenue, Investment and GDP per capital from 1970-2012, the paper explores the correlations between the petroleum industry and real per capita income in Nigeria. Using cointegration and error correction approach, the study finds that oil revenue has a positive and significant impact on per capital real income in the long-run. As well, the study shows that non-oil revenue and investment has insignificant impact on per capital real income, validating the fact that the entire economy is dominated by oil. Contrary to a report by the Ernst & Young (2013) which indicated that Nigeria’s per capita Gross Domestic Product is expected to cross the $2,000 threshold by 2017, Nigeria may not harness its petroleum revenues to lift its teeming population out of the vicious circle of poverty because only a small percentage of the population is employed in the petroleum industry. Therefore, Nigeria needs to develop other sectors of the economy. Some of the suggested means are: economic diversification, technology management, transparency, investments in education, domestic private ownerships, public involvement and strong institutions among others.
    Keywords: Petrolum industry, oil revenue, real per capital income, cointegration, error correction model, dutch disease
    JEL: E6 L7 O2
    Date: 2013–11–21
  8. By: Ndiaye, Cheikh Tidiane; Bates, Samuel
    Abstract: Using the structural unobserved component (UC) modeling, this study will analyze the Senegalese economic growth path after 5 decades of independence by focusing on the potential output, the GDP cycle, and the type of shocks on the GDP. Empirical evidence suggests that an inventory cycle mainly drives the GDP short-term component with a time-varying extent of fluctuations. The main sources of shocks result from external determining factors. However, their persistent effects have been mitigated particularly since the devaluation of 1994. International institutions have motivated the relative successful GDP growth path of Senegal. Nevertheless, some structural internal improvements are needed to balance the financial and productive flaws in order to consolidate both the resilience to shocks as well as the macroeconomic stabilization.
    Keywords: Economic growth; Unobserved component modeling; Senegal;
    JEL: C32 E32
    Date: 2013–07
  9. By: Mesplé-Somps, Sandrine; Mercier, Marion; Gubert, Flore; Chauvet, Lisa
    Abstract: This paper explores the impact of Malian migrants' Home Town Associations (HTAs) located in France on the provision of local public goods in Mali. To this end, we compute an original dataset on all the HTAs that have been created by Malian migrants in France since 1981 and geo-localize their interventions on the Malian territory. Thanks to four waves of Malian census, we also build a panel dataset on the provision of a range of public goods in all Malian villages over the 1976-2009 period. These two sources of data allow us to implement a difference-in-differences strategy, and to compare villages with and without an HTA, before and after HTAs developed their activity in Mali. We find that Malian HTAs have significantly contributed to improve the provision of schools, health centers and water amenities over the 1987-2009 period. When looking at the timing of the treatment, we observe that the difference between treated and control villages in terms of water amenities is mainly driven by the second period of observation (1998-2009), while schools and health centers exhibit significant differences during the whole period.
    Keywords: Biens publics locaux; Local public goods; Migration; Mali;
    JEL: F22 H41 H75 O55
    Date: 2013–10

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