nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2013‒11‒29
thirty-two papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Russia and South Africa before the Soviet era By Apollon Davidson
  2. Development at the border: policies and national integration in Côte d’Ivoire and its neighbors By Spielvogel, Gilles; Cogneau, Denis; Mesplé-Somps, Sandrine
  3. Is Aid Really Dead? Evidences from Sub-Saharan Africa By Ogundipe, Adeyemi; Ogundipe, Oluwatomisin
  4. Scaling-up adoption of improved technologies: The impact of the promotion of row planting on farmers' teff yields in Ethiopia. By Vandercasteelen, Joachim; Dereje, Mekdim; Minten, Bart; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum
  5. Nigeria: Publication of Financial Sector Assessment Program Documentation––Technical Note on Strengthening Monetary and Liquidity Management By International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
  6. Reinventing the Wheel: The Economic Benefits of Wheeled Transportation in Early British Colonial West Africa By Isaías N. Chaves; Stanley L. Engerman; James A. Robinson
  7. Nominal GDP Targeting and the Monetary Policy Framework By Shakill Hassan and Chris Loewald
  8. Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC): 2013 Staff Report on Common Policies for Member Countries By International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
  9. The Roles of Land Tenure Reforms and Land Markets in the Context of Population Growth and Land Use Intensification in Africa By Holden, Stein; Otsuka, Keijiro
  10. Sudan: Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper By International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
  11. Comment mesurer la performance des alliances stratégiques internationales ? Application aux industries agroalimentaires en Afrique de l’Ouest By Camara, A.; Cheriet, F.; Fort, F.
  12. Treating schools to a new administration. The impact of South Africa’s 2005 provincial boundary changes on school performance By Martin Gustafsson; Stephen Taylor
  13. South African Capital Markets: An Overview By Shakill Hassan
  14. Sustaining Economic Development of West African Countries: A System GMM Panel Approach By Alege, Philip; Ogundipe, Adeyemi
  15. DSGE Model-Based Forecasting of Modeled and Non-Modeled Inflation Variables in South Africa By Rangan Gupta; Patrick T. kanda; Mampho P. Modise; Alessia Pacagnini
  16. The economic importance and impacts of intellectual property rights (IPRs) in Sudan By Nour, Samia Satti Osman Mohamed
  17. Joint Land Certification and Intra-household Decision-making:Towards Empowerment of Wives? By Holden, Stein; Bezu, Sosina
  18. Estimation of optimal conservation fees for international park visitors in the Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park By Johane Dikgang and Edwin Muchapondwa
  19. Fiscal Discipline in WAEMU: Rules, Institutions, and Markets By Ermal Hitaj; Yasin Kursat Onder
  20. Evolution of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Malawi: A TVP-VAR with Stochastic Volatility Approach By Chance Mwabutwa, Manoel Bittencourt and Nicola Viegi
  21. The Role of Services Trade in Economic Development By Alege, Philip; Ogundipe, Adeyemi
  22. Determinants of Student Satisfaction with Campus Residence Life at a South African University By Ferdi Botha, Jen Snowball, Vivian de Klerk & Sarah Radloff
  23. Making Monetary Policy More Effective: The Case of the Democratic Republic of the Congo By Felix Fischer; Charlotte J. Lundgren; Samir Jahjah
  24. Oil Price and Exchange Rate Volatility in Nigeria By Ogundipe, Adeyemi; Ogundipe, Oluwatomisin
  25. Sudan: Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper-Joint Staff Advisory Note By International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
  26. Development and social justice: Education, training and health in Sudan By Nour, Samia Satti Osman Mohamed
  27. Armed conflict and schooling in Rwanda: Digging deeper. By Guariso, Andrea; Verpoorten, Marijke
  28. Inclusive Growth and Inequality in Senegal By Alexei Kireyev
  29. Sudan: 2013 Article IV Consultation By International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
  30. "To Have and Have Not": Migration, Remittances, Poverty and Inequality in Algeria By Margolis, David N.; Miotti, Luis; Mouhoud, El Mouhoub; Oudinet, Joël
  31. Sudan: Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
  32. Economic Growth in the Euro-Med Area through Trade Integration: Focus on Agriculture and Food. North Africa case studies - Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia By Mohamed Ben Abdallah; Abdelkader Ait El Mekki; Gamal Siam

  1. By: Apollon Davidson (1Ordinary professor, National Research University Higher School of Economics; Academician, Russian Academy of Sciences)
    Abstract: This article is devoted to relations between Russia and South Africa from the mid-17th to the early 19th century. It covers first attempts at sending Russian expeditions around the Cape of Good Hope by Peter the Great and Catherine II and describes how the first Russians reached the Cape from the other end, from Kamchatka. It goes on to describe the trips to the Cape by Russian naval officers and other Russians, some of whom spent a long time in South Africa and left interesting descriptions of the Cape. A unique testimony to the fact that black South Africans knew about Russia is presented in the letter of a Pondo chief to the Russian tsar. The most significant part of Russia’s relations with South Africa was its preoccupation with South African affairs during the Anglo-Boer War of 1899–1900, when Russian volunteers went to fight for the Boers and two medical detachments were sent to treat their wounded. At that time Russia even established diplomatic relations with Transvaal. Mutual interest in the mining sphere is also analysed, and relations between some Russian and South African intellectuals are mentioned. Immigration of Russian Jews to South Africa is also described.
    Keywords: South Africa, Transvaal, Anglo–Boer War, Peter the Great, Witsen, Cathrine the Great, Beniovsky, Golovnin, Goncharov, van Riebeeck, Nicholas II, Grand Duke Alexei, Pondo, Olive Schreiner, Leipoldt, Maximov, Russian Jews.
    JEL: N97
    Date: 2013
  2. By: Spielvogel, Gilles; Cogneau, Denis; Mesplé-Somps, Sandrine
    Abstract: By applying regression discontinuity designs to a set of household surveys from the 1980–90s, we examine whether Côte d’Ivoire’s aggregate wealth was translated at the borders of neighboring countries. At the border of Ghana and at the end of the 1980s, large discontinuities are detected for consumption, child stunting, and access to electricity and safe water. Border discontinuities in consumption can be explained by differences in cash crop policies (cocoa and coffee). When these policies converged in the 1990s, the only differences that persisted were those in rural facilities. In the North, cash crop (cotton) income again made a difference for consumption and nutrition (the case of Mali). On the one hand, large differences in welfare can hold at the borders dividing African countries despite their assumed porosity. On the other hand, border discontinuities seem to reflect the impact of reversible public policies rather than intangible institutional traits.
    Keywords: National Integration; Africa; Borders; Economic Geography; Welfare;
    JEL: O12 R12 P52
    Date: 2013–10
  3. By: Ogundipe, Adeyemi; Ogundipe, Oluwatomisin
    Abstract: This study examined the relationship between foreign aid and economic development in Sub Saharan Africa. The study seeks to examine the role of institutions in aid effectiveness in SSA countries by adopting a theoretical framework similar to the Endogenous/New Growth model and the System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique of estimation in order to overcome the challenge of endogeneity perceived in the institution variables and Aid-Growth argument. It was observed that foreign aid does not significantly influenced Real GDP Per Capita in Sub-Saharan Africa, even after controlling for adequate rule of law and sound public institutions. In the same manner; capital stock, rule of law, control of corruption and Human capital enhanced economic performance while foreign aid failed to contribute meaningfully to economic development in SSA Countries.
    Keywords: Foreign aid, Economic Development, Institutions, System GMM
    JEL: C33 F35 G18 O1 P48
    Date: 2013–11–24
  4. By: Vandercasteelen, Joachim; Dereje, Mekdim; Minten, Bart; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum
    Abstract: Adoption of yieldincreasing technologies is seen as a key driver to increase agricultural production in Sub-Saharan Africa. There is, however, a lack of empirical evidence on the impact of programs aiming to scale-up the adoption of improved technologies from research settings to the farm level. To fill this gap, this paper assesses the impact of the promotion of a new agricultural technology, i.e. row planting at reduced seed rate, on farmers’ teff yields in Ethiopia. The results of a randomized control trial show that the program to scale-up row planting on average has a positive effect on teff yield. Depending on the measure of yield used, we find increases between 2 percent—but not statistically significant—and 22 percent. These findings are in contrast with larger yield increases found on village demonstration plots and in more controlled settings, as well as with the yield increase expected by teff farmers. The differences seemingly are linked to problems in implementation of the program and of its recommendations, methodological issues, and likely over-optimism on the potential of row planting in real farm settings.
    Keywords: Ethiopia; teff yield; row planting; adoption; new technology;
    Date: 2013
  5. By: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
    Keywords: Monetary policy;Liquidity management;Capital markets;Money markets;Exchange markets;Financial Sector Assessment Program;Nigeria;
    Date: 2013–10–24
  6. By: Isaías N. Chaves; Stanley L. Engerman; James A. Robinson
    Abstract: One of the great puzzles of Sub-Saharan African economic history is that wheeled transportation was barely used prior to the colonial period. Instead, head porterage was the main method of transportation. The consensus among historians is that this was a rational adaption to the underlying conditions and factor endowments. In this paper we undertake the first systematic investigation of the relative costs of the different forms of wheeled transportation in Africa. We focus on calculating the social savings and social rate of return associated with the introduction of the railway into colonial British West Africa. We provide more speculative estimates of the social savings of other forms of wheeled transportation. We find that all forms of wheeled transportation were economically efficient in the sense that they increased national income, though the estimated social savings of railways were modest when compared to GDP. However, we also find that the social rate of return of railways was exceedingly high, with annual social returns being equivalent to the entire capital outlays in Nigeria, i.e., railways there had a social rate of return of around 100%. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, railways appear to have been a very good social investment in West Africa because they were cheap to build. We discuss some alternative hypotheses that may nevertheless account for why they were not adopted.
    JEL: N77 O33 R40
    Date: 2013–11
  7. By: Shakill Hassan and Chris Loewald
    Abstract: A nominal income target may provide credibility to a commitment to keep real interest rates exceptionally low, until a target output level is reached -–even if expected inflation rises in the interim–- in economies where nominal interest rates are effectively at the zero lower bound, which is not the South African case. There are practical difficulties with adopting nominal income targeting as the monetary policy framework. These include issues on the choice of a target level, risk of unanchored in‡ation expectations, and increased likelihood of error due to data uncertainty and revisions. Responsiveness to output growth and supply shocks -–two important attractions of nominal income targeting - can be largely accommodated within flexible inflation targeting. Neither regime will automatically resolve the challenges posed to monetary policy by volatile capital flows and exchange rates, and asset price bubbles. The case for abandoning flexible in‡ation targeting, to adopt nominal income targeting, in South Africa and other emerging economies, is not compelling.
    Keywords: Monetary policy, nominal income targeting, Inflation targeting, Growth
    JEL: E52 E58
    Date: 2013
  8. By: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
    Abstract: KEY ISSUES: Context. Strong area-wide economic performance in 2012 was largely driven by public investment financed by high oil revenues. GDP growth is expected to slow down in 2013 due to a decline in oil production, moderation in public investment and the political crisis in Central African Republic. Albeit robust in recent years, economic growth has been insufficient to significantly improve income per capita. While macroeconomic stability has been maintained, with moderate inflation, the region’s main challenge is to implement structural policies necessary to help promote sustainable and inclusive growth. The region remains vulnerable to a possible decline in oil prices. Key policy recommendations: Policy mix. The fiscal stance should be more cautious in some countries where policy buffers are insufficient to withstand shocks. The recent easing of monetary policy has been appropriate given the positive inflation outlook. Reserves coverage remains adequate and the real effective exchange rate is broadly in line with fundamentals but the issue of only partial repatriation of foreign exchange reserves by some member states needs be resolved. Fiscal policy coordination. The fiscal surveillance framework should be revised to limit pro-cyclicality and better ensure long-term fiscal sustainability of oil rich countries. Monetary policy framework. In the context of the peg of the CFA Franc to the euro, the operational framework for monetary policy needs to be revised to improve management of systemic liquidity and make it an efficient tool of macroeconomic management. Financial sector. To reduce risks to financial sector stability, strengthening the capacity of the regional regulator, strictly enforcing prudential requirements and expediting the restructuring of unviable institutions are among key priorities. Financial deepening requires structural financial sector reforms related to credit information, security of collaterals, creditor rights and payment system. Growth. More effective regional integration could help boost and sustain diversified and inclusive growth. Reinforcing regional institutions and improving the coordination of national development plans are needed to optimize the region’s potential. Regional efforts to boost private sector investment should aim at improving governance and the business climate, one of the most challenging in Africa.
    Keywords: Economic growth;Central African Economic and Monetary Community;Fiscal policy;Global competitiveness;Fiscal reforms;Financial sector;Economic integration;Monetary policy;Bank supervision;Economic indicators;Staff Reports;Press releases;
    Date: 2013–11–06
  9. By: Holden, Stein (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Otsuka, Keijiro (GRIPS, Tokyo, Japan)
    Abstract: This article provides a review of the past and potential future roles of land tenure reforms and land markets in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as responses to population growth in the process of land use intensification and livelihood transformation. The farm size distribution and the existence of an inverse relationship (IR) between farm size and land productivity in SSA and the implications of this relationship for efficiency and equity are investigated. More secure property rights and removal of restrictions on land markets have the potential to create both efficiency and equity benefits, but there are high risks of elite capture of large land areas with inefficient and inequitable outcomes. This situation is the case not only in land-abundant areas but also in urban and peri-urban areas where increasingly larger proportions of people will make their living. Increasing population pressure in densely populated rural areas contributes to more rapid rural–urban migration, and creating alternative livelihood opportunities for the migrating youth population is essential to achieving economic development with social stability.
    Keywords: Inverse farm size–productivity relationship; tenure security; tenure reform; land markets; migratio; livelihood opportunities
    JEL: O13 Q12 Q15 Q56 R23
    Date: 2013–11–18
  10. By: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
    Abstract: Sudan has had one of the highest growth rates amongst Sub-Saharan African countries and a rapidly rising per capita income, with per capita GDP of US$1,500. Nonetheless, the country’s human development outcomes remain weak. Sudan ranks 154 out of 169 countries in UNDP’s 2010 Human Development Index, especially relative to the fact that income per capita GDP exceeded $1,500 or roughly 25 percent higher than the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) average. In 2009, Sudan was the third largest producer of crude oil in SSA, behind Nigeria and Angola, although Sudan’s production was only about 30 percent of Angola’s. Despite the rising per capita income, the incidence of poverty is high, with 46.5 percent of the population is below the poverty line. There is also significant variation in the incidence of poverty between urban and rural areas as well as between states in the Federation. The incidence of poverty in Khartoum state is 26.0 percent and 69.4 percent in North Darfur.
    Keywords: Economic growth;Private sector;Agricultural sector;Infrastructure;Transport;Electric power;Natural resources;Education;Health care;Social safety nets;Governance;Sudan;
    Date: 2013–11–01
  11. By: Camara, A.; Cheriet, F.; Fort, F.
    Abstract: The purpose of this exploratory study is threefold. It is first to conduct a critical literature review on international strategic alliances’ issues. Then, drawing on combined frameworks of Blanchot (2006), Reus and Ritchie (2004), and Cheriet (2009), we aim to propose an integrated model of performance measurement of these cooperative relationships with three logics: multi-dimensions of the construct,multi-perspectives of partners and integration of cooperative relationship dynamics. Finally, our word will also discuss the possibilities of its application to the specific context of agribusiness in West Africa countries. This first work intends to identify appropriate performance indicators through the examination of the main empirical research on the strategic alliances’ performance o in the context of emerging countries and to consider the possibilities of methodology replication to African context. ....French Abstract : L’objet de ce travail exploratoire est triple. Il s’agit d’abord de mener une analyse critique de la littérature portant sur les issues des alliances stratégiques internationales. Ensuite, en s’inspirant des travaux de Blanchot (2006), de Reus et Ritchie (2004) et de Cheriet (2009), de proposer un « tableau de bord » de la mesure de la performance de ces relations coopératives avec une triple logique : multidimensions du construit, multi-perspectives des partenaires et tenant compte de la dynamique de la relation. Enfin, il s’agira de discuter des perspectives de son application au contexte spécifique des industries agroalimentaires et du secteur de la distribution alimentaire en Afrique de l’Ouest. Ce travail d’étape est aussi destiné à identifier les indicateurs de performances pertinents à travers l’examen des résultats des principales recherches empiriques sur la performance des alliances stratégiques dans le contexte des pays émergents et de s’interroger sur les possibilités de réplication méthodologique au contexte africain.
    JEL: L24 L25 L66 O55
    Date: 2013
  12. By: Martin Gustafsson (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch); Stephen Taylor (Department of Basic Education)
    Abstract: The impact that the systems and practices of the education authorities, as opposed to the management at the school, have on school performance is usually difficult to quantify. Provincial boundary changes occurring in South Africa after 2005 appear to create a quasi-experiment that lends itself to impact evaluation techniques. A total of 158 secondary schools experienced a switch in provincial administration and at least two types of switches, one from Limpopo to Mpumalanga and another from North West to Gauteng, were sufficiently common to make statistically significant trends a possibility. Various indicators of Grade 12 mathematics performance are explored which take into account passes at a low threshold, achievement at an excellent level and selection into mathematics. Models used and critically discussed include a simple value-added school production function, a difference-in-difference model and a fixed effects panel data analysis. The data include annual Grade 12 examination results for the period 2005 to 2012, which allow for lags in the impact to be explored. Spatial analysis is used to identify schools located close to switching schools to establish whether student commuting effects could have confounded the results. A key finding is that schools moving from North West to Gauteng appear to enjoy benefits associated with the treatment especially as far as the production of students excelling in mathematics is concerned. However, a strong caveat is that the finding depends heavily on just 2012 values and that 2013 examination data will have to be included in the analysis before the study can inform policy recommendations. A brief comparison of institutional aspects of the education authorities in the two provinces North West and Gauteng, drawing from publicly available plans and reports, is provided to help interpret the differences seen in the data. The paper ends with some tentative conclusions in relation to how governance responsibilities in education can be optimally spread across the national, provincial and local levels in South Africa.
    Keywords: South Africa, school improvement, mathematics education, impact evaluation
    JEL: C21 H11 I21
    Date: 2013
  13. By: Shakill Hassan
    Abstract: This paper presents a overview and discussion of facts and research findings on South African equity, currency, bond and derivatives markets. It is not a comprehensive literature review, but rather an assessment of where we stand - how the markets have developed, how the main markets compare internationally, what do we have a firm understanding of, and what are (some of) the areas in most evident need for further research.
    Keywords: Bonds, derivatives, emerging markets, equities, foreign exchange, market value, turnover
    JEL: G10 F31
    Date: 2013
  14. By: Alege, Philip; Ogundipe, Adeyemi
    Abstract: The paper investigates the relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth in ECOWAS using the System-GMM panel estimation technique covering the period 1970-2011.The study adopted System-GMM in order to overcome the weaknesses perceived in the empirical works of earlier studies; majority of these studies failed to control for the presumed challenges of endogeneity inherent in the FDI-Growth argument. The study likewise interacted human capital and institutions indicators with other explanatory variables in explaining the variability of FDI. The results of the System-GMM appears contrary to earlier studies, as the contribution of FDI was insignificant and impacts negatively on growth in ECOWAS despite the controlling for the role of human capital and quality of institutions in the model. Following this outcome, policy makers in developing Africa needs to exercise cautions in adopting the recommendation from earlier studies; most of which advocates more openness, advancing human capital development and strengthening institutions. This might not be completely helpful considering the pattern of FDI inflow into ECOWAS, which is absolutely resource-seeking. There is need to curtail excessive openness in the extractive industries, encouraging more manufacturing FDI and domestic investment of repatriated capital by ensuring more economic stability and raising domestic interest rate.
    Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth, System-GMM
    JEL: E22 O1
    Date: 2013–11–24
  15. By: Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Patrick T. kanda (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Mampho P. Modise (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Alessia Pacagnini (Dipartimento di Economia, Metodi Quantitativi e Strategie d'Impresa (DEMS), Facoltà di Economia, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca)
    Abstract: Inflation forecasts are a key ingredient for monetary policymaking - especially in an inflation targeting country such as South Africa. Generally, a typical Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) only includes a core set of variables. As such, other variables,e.g. such as alternative measures of inflation that might be of interest to policymakers, do not feature in the model. Given this, we implement a closed-economy New Keynesian DSGE model-based procedure which includes variables that do not explicitly appear in the model. We estimate such a model using an in-sample covering 1971Q2 to 1999Q4, and generate recursive forecasts over 2000Q1-2011Q4. The hybrid DSGE performs extremely well in forecasting inflation variables (both core and non-modeled) in comparison with forecasts reported by other models, such as the AR(1).
    Keywords: DSGE model, in ation, core variables, non-core variables
    JEL: C11 C32 C53 E27 E47
    Date: 2013–11
  16. By: Nour, Samia Satti Osman Mohamed (Faculty of Economic and Social Studies, Khartoum University, and UNU-MERIT/MGSoG)
    Abstract: This paper explains the importance of IPRs and examines the factors hindering and those contributing toward enhancing IPRs in Sudan. We find that the inadequacy of IPRs protection in Sudan is attributed to low integration in the international institutions, lack of legal issues, lack of government concern, lack of private sector concern, weak institutions setting, lack of public awareness, lack of resources, weak culture for IPRs, lack of cooperation between universities and industry and lack of coordination. The inadequate IPRs protection in Sudan leads to poor national system of innovation, hindering FDI and hindering transfer of technology. The factors contributing toward enhancing IPRs in Sudan include promotion of adequate IPRs legislations and enforcement; planning, commitment to international IPRs agreements; finance, investment and resources; social partnership to encourage IPRs protection, government concern, private sector concern, public awareness, cooperation between universities and industry, institutions setting, coordination and culture for IPRs protection.
    Keywords: IPRs, economic importance, economic impacts, Sudan, Africa
    JEL: O30 O34
    Date: 2013
  17. By: Holden, Stein (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Bezu, Sosina (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences)
    Abstract: We have used gender-disaggregated household panel data from 2007 and 2012 in combination with dictator games and hawk-dove games to assess the effects of joint land certification of husbands and wives on wives’ involvement in land-related decisions within households. Wives’ stated preferences for stronger land rights to women and husbands’ stated preferences for the traditional weak position of women were significantly affecting the wives’ degree of within household involvement in land-related decisions in opposite directions. Within-household generosity as expressed in dictator game experiments between husbands and wives, was correlated with stronger involvement of wives in land-related decisions.
    Keywords: Joint land certification; gender; empowerment of wives; experiments; Ethiopia
    JEL: D03 J16 Q15
    Date: 2013–11–18
  18. By: Johane Dikgang and Edwin Muchapondwa
    Abstract: This paper estimates the visitation demand function for Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park (KTP) in order to determine the conservation fee to charge international tourists to maximise park revenue. International tourists account for approximately 20 percent of total number of visitors to South African national parks, with domestic visitors making-up the remaining portion. Though small, the South African international tourism market is mature, and accounts for a disproportionately large share of net revenue. The random effects Tobit model is used to estimate visitation demand at the KTP and three other national parks. Using the estimated elasticities, the revenue-maximizing daily conservation fees are computed to be R1 131.94 (US$144.20) for KTP, R575.67 (US$73.33) for Kruger National Park (KNP), R722.95 (US$92.10) for Augrabies Falls National Park (AFNP) and R634.11 (US$80.78) for Pilanesberg National Park (PNP). Our findings therefore imply that the conservation fees of R180 (US$22.93) for KTP and KNP, R100 (US$12.74) for AFNP, and R45 (US$5.73) for PNP currently charged to international visitors are significantly lower. This indicates that international park fees could be raised.
    Keywords: conservation fee, demand, land claim, national park
    Date: 2013
  19. By: Ermal Hitaj; Yasin Kursat Onder
    Abstract: This paper gauges the scope for market discipline and the effectiveness of the regional surveillance framework in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). The paper finds that the responsiveness of sovereign bond rates to governments’ fiscal behavior in the regional financial market remains limited. In addition, the paper examines the effectiveness of fiscal rules and institutions in an environment where financial markets fall short of exerting a significant disciplining effect on governments.
    Keywords: Fiscal policy;West African Economic and Monetary Union;Sovereign debt;Public debt;Bonds;European Economic and Monetary Union;Cross country analysis;Economic models;Fiscal discipline, fiscal rules, regional surveillance sovereign risk, sovereign spreads, WAEMU
    Date: 2013–10–23
  20. By: Chance Mwabutwa, Manoel Bittencourt and Nicola Viegi
    Abstract: This paper investigates the evolution of monetary transmission mechanism in Malawi between 1981 and 2010 using a time varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility. We evaluate how the responses of real output and general price level to bank rate, exchange rate and credit shocks have changed over time since Malawi adopted financial reforms in 1980s. The paper finds that inflation, real output and exchange rate responses to monetary policy shocks changed over the period under review. Importantly, beginning mid-2000, the monetary policy transmission performed consistently with predictions of economic theory and there is no evidence of a price puzzle as found in the previous literature on Malawi. However, the statistical significance of the private credit supply remains weak and this calls for more financial reforms targeting the credit market which can contribute to monetary transmission and promote further economic growth in Malawi.
    Keywords: Transmission Mechanism, price puzzle, Financial Reforms, Bayesian TVP-VAR
    JEL: C49 D12 D91 E21 E44
    Date: 2013
  21. By: Alege, Philip; Ogundipe, Adeyemi
    Abstract: This paper is an attempt to investigate the impact of services trade on economic development of Sub-Sahara African (SSA) countries. Our analysis is based on a panel data framework over the period 1990 to 2010 covering thirty-three countries. The paper employs the endogenous growth model to examine the nonlinearities associated with services exports and services imports in the economic development process of SSA countries under consideration. The trade data was disaggregated into travel, transport and other services. The panel data constructed was estimated using ordinary pooled, fixed effects and random effects model techniques and the efficient model was selected based on the Hausman test. The paper finds that both services exports and services imports enhance economic development process. The study also indicates that labour and capital play an important role in the SSA economies.
    Keywords: Economic Development, Services Trade, Panel Data Analysis
    JEL: C33 F1 O1
    Date: 2013–11–24
  22. By: Ferdi Botha, Jen Snowball, Vivian de Klerk & Sarah Radloff
    Abstract: Although there are a number of studies on the determinants of general quality of life among university students, these occur mainly in developed countries and do not focus specifically on campus-based residence life. It has long been accepted that factors outside the classroom (“the other curriculumâ€) can contribute to academic success, as well as the achievement of other important outcomes such as the appreciation of human diversity. Striving towards equality of residence life satisfaction across different racial and gender groups, for example, is thus important for academic outcomes and for the development of well-functioning citizens. This study is based on the 2011 Quality of Residence Life (QoRL) Survey, conducted at a South African university, comprising roughly 2 000 respondents. Based on descriptive analyses and ordered probit regressions, the study investigates the association between satisfaction with QoRL and (i) residence milieu and characteristics, (ii) direct and indirect discrimination, (iii) perceptions of drug and alcohol issues in residence, (iv) safety, and (v) individual student characteristics. One of the main findings is that there are no significant differences in satisfaction with QoRL across racial and gender groups; a finding that suggests significant progress in university transformation and equity goals. The general atmosphere and characteristics of residences are also important predictors of QoRL satisfaction.
    Keywords: Life satisfaction, university life, residence
    Date: 2013
  23. By: Felix Fischer; Charlotte J. Lundgren; Samir Jahjah
    Abstract: The paper looks at the challenges of conducting monetary policy in a context of high dollarization of the banking system and weak institutions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The empirical analysis confirms the limited effectiveness of the Central Bank of Congo in controlling inflation, despite a rapid policy response to inflation shocks. Options available to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy are limited. After exploring the pros and cons of different exchange regimes we conclude that strengthening the current monetary policy framework remains the first-best option, given the country’s exposure to frequent terms-of-trade shocks.
    Keywords: Monetary policy;Republic of Congo;Central bank autonomy;Dollarization;Exchange rate regimes;dollarization, monetary policy, inflation, exchange rate regime, dedollarization, financial deepening.
    Date: 2013–11–05
  24. By: Ogundipe, Adeyemi; Ogundipe, Oluwatomisin
    Abstract: Nigeria being a mono-product economy, where the main export commodity is crude oil, changes in oil prices has implications for the Nigerian economy and, in particular, exchange rate movements. The latter is mostly important due to the double dilemma of being an oil exporting and oil-importing country, a situation that emerged in the last decade. The study examined the effects of oil price, external reserves and interest rate on exchange rate volatility in Nigeria using annual data covering the period 1970 to 2011. The theoretical framework of this study is based on Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasity modeled by Tim Bolerslev (1986) and Exponential General Autoregressive Conditional heteroskedastic modeled by Daniel Nelson (1991). These models were used to estimate the relationship between oil price changes and exchange rate. Relevant descriptive and econometric analyses were employed. The econometric tests adopted include the unit root tests, Johansen co-integration technique and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM); the time series property examined shows that all the variables were stationary at first difference. The long run relationship among the variables was determined using the Johansen Co-integration technique while the vector correction mechanism was used to examine the speed of adjustment of the variables from the short run dynamics to the long run. It was observed that a proportionate change in oil price leads to a more than proportionate change in exchange rate volatility in Nigeria; which implies that exchange rate is susceptible to changes in oil price. The study therefore recommend that the Nigeria government should diversify from the Oil sector to other sectors of the economy so that Crude oil will no longer be the mainstay of the economy and frequent changes in crude oil price will not influence exchange rate volatility significantly in Nigeria.
    Keywords: Oil Price, Exchange rate, Volatility, Johansen Co-integration
    JEL: F31 G12 G15
    Date: 2013–11–22
  25. By: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
    Abstract: This interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (I-PRSP) was prepared following the secession of South Sudan in July 2011. It was approved by the Council of Ministers as well as by Parliament on 20 July 2012, respectively. The preparation of this I-PRSP was initiated before the secession of South Sudan. Since then, the governance structures for the new Sudan have remained the same, based on the 2005 Interim National Constitution (INC) that underpinned the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). Until the signature of the CPA, Sudan had experienced an alternation of civilian and military governments and two protracted North-South wars that took a heavy toll on human life and economic resources. The leadership in Sudan has initially been preoccupied with the difficult negotiations of the economic and political relations with South Sudan, but began in June 2012 to deal with the implications of the massive revenue shocks caused by the loss of the share of the revenues from oil production in South Sudan. The Sudanese government’s attention was also captured by internal conflicts and threats of new ones in several areas of the new country; the situation is being aggravated by the urgent resettlement and reintegration of millions of internally displaced persons (IDPs) from past conflicts in the territory and international refugees from conflict-affected neighboring countries. In this complex environment, the authorities are seeking to normalize Sudan’s relations with the international development community, while opening up access to post-conflict recovery and development assistance, including relief from its onerous external burden.
    Keywords: Governance;Public sector;Financial management;Education;Gender equality;Health care;Economic growth;Employment;Private sector;Agricultural sector;Infrastructure;Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers;Sudan;
    Date: 2013–11–01
  26. By: Nour, Samia Satti Osman Mohamed (Faculty of Economic and Social Studies, Khartoum University, and UNU-MERIT/MGSoG)
    Abstract: This paper discusses the importance of sound policies for achieving social development and social justice in provision of education, training and health services in Sudan. Different from Sudanese literature, we provide new contributions by explaining the low commitment to the standardized international equity criterion related to the supply-demand sides and provision of education, training and health services in Sudan. We fill an important gap in Sudanese literature by explaining that regional inequality in the demand for education (share in enrolment in education) is most probably due to economic reasons (per capita income and poverty rate), demographic reasons (share in total population) and other reasons (degree of urbanization) in Sudan. We find that the increase in the incidence of high poverty rates and low per capita incomes seem to be the most important factor limiting the demand for education, notably, demand for primary education, especially for females in Sudan. The major policy implication from our findings is that poverty eradication is key for the achievement of universal access to primary education, gender equality, equity, social justice and therefore, fulfillment of the second and third UN-MDGs in Sudan by 2015. We recommend further efforts to be made to improve equitable provision of education, training and health services to enhance social justice and social development in Sudan.
    Keywords: Education, training, health, supply, demand, equity, development, social justice, Sudan
    JEL: I14 I24 I28
    Date: 2013
  27. By: Guariso, Andrea; Verpoorten, Marijke
    Abstract: It has been shown that armed conflict in Rwanda had a strong negative impact on schooling. Huge gaps remain, however, in our understanding of its heterogeneous effects across subgroups and the underlying mechanisms. Relying on population census data, we show that – in contrast to previous findings - there is no leveling off, i.e. the negative impact is not stronger for non-poor and boys. We further demonstrate that slower grade progression as well as increased drop-outs explain the drop in primary schooling, while the drop in secondary schooling is driven by a decline in school initiation. Finally, our results reveal a spatial mismatch between commune-level genocide intensity and the drop in schooling. We test for several confounding factors - pre-war regional trends in schooling, migration, selective killings, and post-war assistance to genocide survivors - but find that none of these factors can fully account for the mismatch. We conjecture that the impact of armed conflict on schooling in Rwanda was nationwide, both because the disruption caused by the genocide was felt in every corner of the country and because - besides the genocide - other forms of violence took place in Rwanda in the nineties.
    Date: 2013–11–06
  28. By: Alexei Kireyev
    Abstract: The paper examines Senegal’s growth performance from the perspective of its povertyreducing and distributional characteristics, and discusses policies that might help make growth more inclusive. The main findings are that poverty has fallen in the last two decades, but poverty reduction has slowed in recent years. Although available indicators sometimes give conflicting signals on distributional shifts, people in the middle of the income distribution have received the most benefit, mainly in urban areas. Further progress in poverty reduction and inclusiveness would require sustained high growth and exploration of growth opportunities in the sectors with high earning potential for the poor. Better-targeted social policies and more attention to the regional distribution of spending would also help reduce poverty and improve inclusiveness.
    Keywords: Economic growth;Senegal;Income distribution;Poverty reduction;growth, inclusiveness, low-income countries, poverty reduction.
    Date: 2013–10–23
  29. By: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
    Abstract: KEY ISSUES Context: The July 2011 secession of South Sudan led to the buildup of large economic imbalances in Sudan. The authorities responded in June 2012 with a comprehensive package of corrective measures, which laid the ground for a much-needed adjustment process. The reform process was expected to continue in 2013, through a second package of measures, which the authorities recently put together, but has yet to be implemented. The March 2013 agreement with South Sudan on oil and security matters is offering an opportunity to continue the adjustment process by implementing bold reforms to address the post-secession challenges. Outlook and risks: Risks are mainly to the downside and risks include domestic political instability and volatile security conditions, notably tensions at the border with South Sudan. Strong and steady implementation of reforms is crucial for improving macroeconomic stability and enhancing medium-term growth prospects. Focus of the Article IV discussions: Discussions focused on: (i) near-term policies for restoring macroeconomic stability; and (ii) a medium-term strategy for rebuilding the economy and implementing policies for sustained and inclusive growth, higher employment, and poverty reduction. Policy recommendations: Action is needed on the following fronts: (i) fiscal adjustment grounded in a sound medium-term framework, including a gradual phase-out of fuel and wheat subsidies, and strengthening of social safety nets thus making way for higher quality spending; (ii) a tighter monetary stance to address high inflation and exchange rate pressures; (iii) unification of the exchange rates and markets together with further exchange rate flexibility; and (iv) further liberalization of the economy and improvement in the business environment in order to boost private sector-led growth. Staff-Monitored Program: Strong corrective policy measures to address the large economic imbalances and reforming the economy are needed to serve as the basis for a successor staff-monitored program. Debt relief: Relief is predicated on reaching out to creditors, normalizing relations with international financial institutions, and establishing a track record of cooperation with the IMF on policies and payments.
    Keywords: Article IV consultation reports;Political economy;Economic growth;Fiscal policy;External debt;Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Multiple currency practices;Exchange rate regimes;Financial sector;Economic indicators;Staff Reports;Press releases;Sudan;
    Date: 2013–11–01
  30. By: Margolis, David N. (Paris School of Economics); Miotti, Luis (University of Paris 13); Mouhoud, El Mouhoub (Université Paris-Dauphine); Oudinet, Joël (University of Paris 13)
    Abstract: This article analyses the distributional impact of remittances across two regions of Algerian emigration (Nedroma and Idjeur) using an original survey we conducted of 1,200 households in 2011. Remittances and especially the role played by foreign pensions decrease the Gini index by nearly 4 % for the two Algerian regions, with the effect in Idjeur being twice as large as Nedroma. At the same time, they help reduce poverty by nearly 13 percentage points. Remittances have a strong positive impact on very poor families in Idjeur but much less in Nedroma, where poor families suffer from a “double loss” due to the absence of their migrants and the fact that the latter do not send money home.
    Keywords: remittances, migration, poverty, inequality, Algeria
    JEL: F24 O15 O55
    Date: 2013–11
  31. By: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
    Abstract: Sudan faces difficult challenges in the conduct of its monetary policy following South Sudan’s secession in 2011. Sudan’s economic conditions deteriorated rapidly after this permanent shock. The fiscal deficit widened owing to the loss of oil revenues and delays in fiscal adjustment. Monetization of the fiscal deficit led to high inflation, which reached 47.8 percent in March 2013. An understanding of the effects of monetary policy on macroeconomic variables (such as output, employment and prices) and the channels through which these effects are transmitted is critical for effective policy formulation and timely implementation, and for ensuring macro-financial stability.
    Keywords: Monetary transmission mechanism;Monetary policy;Taxation;Gold;Natural resources;Global competitiveness;Reserves adequacy;Selected issues;Sudan;
    Date: 2013–11–01
  32. By: Mohamed Ben Abdallah (Tunis El-Manar University, Faculté des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion de Tunis (FSEGT), Laboratoire d'Intégration Economique Internationale (LIEI)); Abdelkader Ait El Mekki (National School of Agriculture in Meknes); Gamal Siam (Faculty of Agriculture at Cairo University)
    Abstract: This report presents the macro-effects of deep trade integration between the EU and respectively Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. Overall, the simulation results from both a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and Social Accounting Matrixes (SAM) analyses show that further trade liberalisation leads to a general gain for the countries under review, with the effect being more pronounced for combining tariff elimination with Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) reduction.
    Keywords: Economic integration, agricultural trade, modelling tools, food security
    JEL: F15 C68 D57 Q17
    Date: 2013–09

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