nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2013‒11‒16
25 papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Africa's Growth Prospects in a European mirror: a Historical Perspective By Broadberry, Stephen; Gardner, Leigh
  2. The Threat of Domestic Violence and Women Empowerment: The Case of West Africa By Marcel-Cristian Voia; Saikou Amadou Diallo
  3. Banking in Africa By Beck, Thorsten; Cull, Robert
  4. Does malaria control impact education? A study of the Global Fund in Africa. By Maria Kuecken; Josselin Thuilliez; Marie-Anne Valfort
  5. A systemic analysis of land markets and land institutions in West African cities : rules and practices -- the case of Bamako, Mali By Durand-Lasserve, Alain; Durand-Lasserve, Maylis; Selod, Harris
  6. Intergenerational Transmission of Self-Employed Status in the Informal Sector: A Constrained Choice or Better Income Prospects? Evidence from seven West-African Countries By Pasquier-Doumer, Laure
  7. Credit Constraints and the Racial Gap in Post-Secondary Education in South Africa By David Lam; Cally Ardington; Nicola Branson; Murray Leibbrandt
  8. Time-Varying Linkages between Tourism Receipts and Economic Growth in South Africa By Mehmet Balcilar; Renee van Eyden; Roula Inglesi-Lotz; Rangan Gupta
  9. Enhancing the credibility of fiscal forecasts in South Africa: Is a fiscal council the only way? By Estian Calitz; Krige Siebrits; Ian Stuart
  10. Sitting on the fence: Pork - barrels and democratization under threat of conflict. The case of Ghana, 1996 - 2004 By Mesplé-Somps, Sandrine; André, Pierre
  11. Production and Marketing of Vegetables among smallholders in Ethiopia: The case of Lume district of Ethiopia By Gebreselassie, Samuel
  12. Strengthening economic rights and women's occupational choice : the impact of reforming Ethiopia's family law By Hallward-Driemeier, Mary; Gajigo, Ousman
  13. The accuracy of fiscal projections in South Africa By Estian Calitz; Krige Siebrits; Ian Stuart
  14. Dynamic Fiscal Impact of The Debt Relief Initiatives on African Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs) By Van Campenhout, Bjorn; Raffinot, Marc; Ferry, Marin; Cassimon, Danny
  15. Can free provision reduce demand for public services ? evidence from Kenyan education By Bold, Tessa; Kimenyi, Mwangi; Mwabu, Germano; Sandefur, Justin
  16. Attrition and Follow-Up Rules in Panel Surveys: Insights from a Tracking Experience in Madagascar By Vaillant, Julia
  17. Prospective Jatropha Curcas based Firms in Nigeria. How Viable? By Fakayode, Segun Bamidele; Belewu, M.A.; Muhammed, N.O.; Adekola, O.F.; Adebayo, G.B.; Ameen, O.M.; Raji, S. A.; Jimoh, A. A; Olaniyan, A.M
  18. Pauvreté monétaire versus non-monétaire au Burundi By Jean-Claude Nsabimana; Nicolas Ndayishimiye; Christian Kwidera; Aurélien Beko
  19. Is ‘tradition’ the solution? Lessons from Rwanda’s gacaca courts for justice and reconciliation after mass violence By Ingelaere, Bert
  20. Migrants' Home Town Associations and Local Development in Mali By Mesplé-Somps, Sandrine; Mercier, Marion; Gubert, Flore; Chauvet, Lisa
  21. Learning to walk before you run : Financial Behavior and mobile banking in Madagascar By Venet, Baptiste; Arestoff, Florence
  22. Microcrédit, pauvreté et autonomisation des femmes au Bénin By Dieudonné Bleossi Dahoun; Olivier Manlan; Cosme Vodonou; Saint-Martin Mongan; Damien Mededji; Janvier P. Alofa
  23. Dutch disease and spending strategies in a resource-rich low-income country -- the case of Niger By Go, Delfin S.; Robinson, Sherman; Thierfelder, Karen; Utz, Robert
  24. The Transmission of Oil and Food Prices to Consumer Prices – Evidence for the MENA Countries By Ansgar Belke; Christian Dreger
  25. Institutions, gouvernance et croissance de long terme à Madagascar : l'énigme et le paradoxe By Razafindrakoto, Mireille; Roubaud, François; Wachsberger, Jean-Michel

  1. By: Broadberry, Stephen (London School of Economics and CAGE); Gardner, Leigh (London School of Economics)
    Abstract: Drawing on recent quantitative research on Europe reaching back to the medieval period, and noting a relationship between the quality of institutions and economic growth, this paper offers a reassessment of Africa’s growth prospects. Periods of positive growth driven by trade, followed by growth reversals which wiped out the gains of the previous boom, characterized pre-modern Europe as well as twentieth century Africa. Since per capita incomes in much of sub-Saharan Africa are currently at the level of medieval Europe, which did not make the breakthrough to modern economic growth until the nineteenth century, we caution against too optimistic a reading of Africa’s recent growth experience. Without the institutional changes necessary to facilitate structural change, growth reversals continue to pose a serious threat to African prosperity. Only if growth continues after a downturn in Africa’s terms of trade can we be sure that the corner has been turned.
    Keywords: Africa, Growth prospects.
    Date: 2013
  2. By: Marcel-Cristian Voia (Department of Economics, Carleton University); Saikou Amadou Diallo (Health Canada)
    Abstract: In this paper we assess the significance of a set of threats of domestic violence in ten West African countries that we argue limit the potential of women in particular and the development of society. Our data consists of the most recent year of a country-specific Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), conducted in the same way for each participating country. The risk of domestic violence and the intensity of its threat are assessed using different probabilistic model specifications together with an assessment of how heterogeneous/homogenous are these effects across the set of countries. The overall results suggest that religion has played a significant role in relation to domestic violence in most countries, the exceptions being Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. Area of residence has played an important positive role in Benin, Ghana, Guinea, Senegal and Sierra Leone while the level of well-being and/or household’s level of wealth have a significant negative impact on the threat of domestic violence in Benin, Ghana, Nigeria, and Senegal. Finally, the factor that we feel has been most important in reducing the threat of domestic violence has been improvement in the status and/or autonomy of women. This is characterized in our sample by the fact that wife is working, plays a decision making role in the family, is sexually active and has a higher level of education.
    Keywords: “threat” of domestic violence, women empowerment, West Africa
    JEL: J12 J16 I24 I25 I31
    Date: 2013–09–22
  3. By: Beck, Thorsten; Cull, Robert
    Abstract: This paper takes stock of the current state of banking systems across Sub-Saharan Africa and discusses recent developments including innovations that might help Africa leapfrog more traditional banking models. Using an array of different data, the paper documents that African banking systems are shallow but stable. African banks are well capitalized and over-liquid, but lend less to the private sector than banks in non-African developing countries. African enterprises and households are less likely to use financial services than their peers in other developing countries. The paper also describes a number of financial innovations across the continent that can help overcome different barriers to financial inclusion and have helped to expand the bankable and the banked population.
    Keywords: Access to Finance,Banks&Banking Reform,Debt Markets,Emerging Markets,Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress
    Date: 2013–10–01
  4. By: Maria Kuecken (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics); Josselin Thuilliez (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics); Marie-Anne Valfort (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: We examine the middle-run effects of the Global Fund's malaria control programs on the educational attainment of primary schoolchildren in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using a quasi-experimental approach, we exploit geographic variation in pre-campaign malaria prevalence (malaria ecology) and variation in exogenous exposure to the timing and expenditure of malaria control campaigns, based on individuals' years of birth and year surveyed. In a large majority of countries (14 of 22), we find that the program led to substantial increases in years of schooling and grade level as well as reductions in schooling delay. Moreover, although by and large positive, we find that the marginal returns of the Global Fund disbursements in terms of educational outcomes are decreasing. Our findings, which are robust to both the instrumentation of ecology and use of alternative ecology measures, have important policy implications on the value for money of malaria control efforts.
    Keywords: Malaria, Sub-Saharan Africa, education, quasi-experimental.
    JEL: I15 I21 O19 O55
    Date: 2013–10
  5. By: Durand-Lasserve, Alain; Durand-Lasserve, Maylis; Selod, Harris
    Abstract: This paper presents a new type of land market analysis relevant to cities with plural tenure systems as in West Africa. The methodology hinges on a systemic analysis of land delivery channels, which helps to show how land is initially made available for circulation, how tenure can be formalized incrementally, and the different means whereby households can access land. The analysis is applied to the area of Bamako in Mali, where information was collected through (i) interviews with key informants, (ii) a literature review on land policies, public allocations, and customary transfers of land, (iii) a press review on land disputes, and (iv) a survey of more than 1,600 land transfers of un-built plots that occurred between 2009 and 2012. The analysis finds that land is mostly accessed through an informal customary channel, whereby peri-urban land is transformed from agricultural to residential use, and through a public channel, which involves the administrative allocation of residential plots to households. The integrated analysis of land markets and land institutions stresses the complexity of procedures and the extra-legality of practices that strongly affect the functioning of formal and informal markets and make access to land costly and insecure, with negative social, economic, and environmental impacts over the long term.
    Keywords: Urban Housing,Public Sector Management and Reform,Municipal Housing and Land,National Urban Development Policies&Strategies,Urban Housing and Land Settlements
    Date: 2013–11–01
  6. By: Pasquier-Doumer, Laure
    Abstract: This paper aims at highlighting the debate on firm heterogeneity in the informal sector by testing whether entrepreneurial familial background impacts informal businesses outcomes in the West African context. In the USA, a literature aiming at understanding the high intergenerational correlation of the self-employed status shows that children of self-employed have better business performance than children of wage earners. However, it is not obvious that this result could be generalised to developing countries. Using 1-2-3 surveys collected in the commercial capitals of seven West African countries in 2001–02, this paper shows that children of self-employed, who own an informal business, do not have better business outcomes than children of wage earners, except when they choose a familial tradition in the same sector of activity. Thus, in the West African context, having a self-employed father seems not sufficient for the transmission of valuable skills and does not provide any advantage in terms of value added or sales if the activity is different from that of the father. On the other hand, informal entrepreneurs who have chosen a specific enterprise based on familial tradition have a competitive advantage. Their competitive advantage is partly explained by the transmission of enterprise-specific human capital, acquired through experiences in the same type of activity and by the transmission of social capital that guarantees a better clientele and a reputation.
    Keywords: informal sector; Entrepreneurship; Intergenerational link; Human capital; secteur informel; entreprenariat; lien intergénérationnel; capital humain;
    JEL: L26 J24 J62
    Date: 2013
  7. By: David Lam; Cally Ardington; Nicola Branson; Murray Leibbrandt
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of high school household income and scholastic ability on post-secondary enrollment in South Africa. Using longitudinal data from the Cape Area Panel Study (CAPS), we analyze the large racial gaps in the proportion of high school graduates who enroll in university and other forms of post-secondary education. Our results indicate that family background and high school achievement (measured by a literacy and numeracy exam and performance on the grade 12 matriculation exam) are strong predictors of post-secondary enrollment and statistically account for all of the black-white difference in enrollment. Controlling for parental education and baseline scholastic ability reduces the estimated impact of household income on university enrollment, though there continues to be an effect at the top of the income distribution. We also find evidence of credit constraints on non-university forms of post-secondary enrollment. Counterfactual estimates indicate that if all South Africans had the incomes of the richest whites, African university enrollment would increase by 65%, even without changing parental education or high school academic achievement. The racial gap in university enrollment would narrow only slightly, however as our results suggest that this gap in postsecondary enrollment results mainly from the large racial gap in high school academic achievement.
    JEL: I24 I25 J15 J24
    Date: 2013–11
  8. By: Mehmet Balcilar (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, North Cyprus,via Mersin 10, Turkey); Renee van Eyden (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Roula Inglesi-Lotz (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)
    Abstract: The causal link between tourism receipts and GDP has recently become a major focus in the tourism economics literature. Results obtained in recent studies about the causal link appear to be sensitive with respect to the countries analysed, sample period and methodology employed. Considering the sensitivity of the causal link, we use the rolling window and time-varying coefficient estimation methods to analyse the parameter stability and Granger causality based on a vector error correction model (VECM). When applied to South Africa for the 1960-2011 periods, the findings are as follows: results from the full sample VECM indicate that there is no Granger-causality between the tourism receipts and GDP, while the findings from the time-varying coefficients model based on the state-space representation and rolling window estimation technique show that GDP has no predictive power for tourism receipts; however, tourism receipts have positive-predictive content for GDP for the entire period, with the exception of the period between 1985 and 1990.
    Keywords: Tourism receipts, economic growth, time-varying causality, time-varying parameter model
    JEL: C32 L83 O40
    Date: 2013–10
  9. By: Estian Calitz (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch); Krige Siebrits (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch); Ian Stuart (Treasury, Government of South Africa)
    Abstract: The paper investigates whether fiscal credibility in South Africa (SA) would be enhanced by following the international trend of establishing a fiscal council. Given that fiscal councils and numerical fiscal rules are increasingly seen as complementary aspects of fiscal policymaking frameworks, we survey evidence on fiscal councils, with reference to empirical studies and country experience – Chile in particular. Whilst earlier studies generated inconclusive results of earlier attempts about the link between fiscal councils and good fiscal performance, more recent studies found that the involvement of fiscal councils has contributed to more accurate macroeconomic and budgetary forecasts. In the light of this evidence – in particular, the increasingly recognised need for flexibility in fiscal rules, respect for the country’s political environment in considering the appropriateness of fiscal councils and the importance of transparency in any fiscal regime – we discuss lessons for SA, and the mechanics of our proposal. SA’s fiscal performance and regime are assessed, with reference to the literature’s finding of historical fiscal sustainability and macro fiscal forecasting accuracy and various measures characterising the current transparency-enhancing regime of fiscal discretion. It is recognised that SA does not have numerical fiscal rules and that the National Treasury has not been outperformed by nongovernment economists in forecasting key variables used in drafting the annual budget. Projections nevertheless become increasingly inaccurate over three-year periods. On average, budget deficit forecasting errors have during the previous decade been lower than in European Union countries. The case for a fiscal council on the basis of better short-term forecasting accuracy alone is not strong. Instead of a fiscal council, an institutional innovation is proposed, namely structured bi-annual discussions of government’s macroeconomic budget forecasts in public parliamentary hearings, integrated into the budget process. This avoids drainage of scarce resources from Treasury and political pitfalls encountered elsewhere and might strengthen credibility of medium-term projections.
    Keywords: fiscal rules, fiscal policy, fiscal council, fiscal transparency, fiscal forecasts
    JEL: H61 H68
    Date: 2013
  10. By: Mesplé-Somps, Sandrine; André, Pierre
    Abstract: This paper studies political competition in the case of a democratization process. We present an illustrative model describing political competition when the opposition threatens the stability of the country. In some cases, our model predicts the government should invest in opposition districts to avoid political agitation. This contrasts with existing literature on established democracies, where public funds usually target ruling, party supporters or electorally tight districts. We empirically observe the first democratic changeover in Ghana in 2000. Implement- ing a diff-in-diff strategy, we find that districts with a leading political party member appear to receive slightly more public funds when their party is not in charge. This phenomenon is found in urban areas and in areas that vote the most for this leading member’s party. Hence it occurs in places with the potential for political agitation.
    Keywords: Public goods; Elections; Politics; Ghana;
    JEL: D72 O55 R53
    Date: 2013–04
  11. By: Gebreselassie, Samuel
    Abstract: Irrigated vegetable crop production as a viable economic venture helps farmers gain full employment, all year round and generate substantial amount of income. However, the positive prospects of emergence of dynamic and strong commercial horticulture sector among small farmers in the Lume area (as in other parts of the country) depends partly on further support on marketing and improved post-harvest product handling techniques. Specifically, there is a need to develop and improve marketing outlets for producers, and to improve marketing efficiency and competitiveness of existing vegetable markets. Any marketing support to small vegetable producers should focus on identifying and minimizing/neutralizing the factors that help brokers and wholesalers to determine price to their advantage. Any intervention should also be along the whole vale chain as competitiveness of one market depends on the other that precedes or follows it. It is essential to design marketing strategy for increasing market chain competitiveness (both along the whole value chain and in a given market especially where vegetable growers sell the bulk of their vegetable.
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries, Marketing,
    Date: 2012–11
  12. By: Hallward-Driemeier, Mary; Gajigo, Ousman
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the impact of strengthening legal rights on the types of economic opportunities that are pursued. Ethiopia changed its family law, requiring both spouses'consent in the administration of marital property, removing the ability of a spouse to deny permission for the other to work outside the home, and raising women's minimum age of marriage. Thus both access to resources and the removal of restrictions on employment served to strengthen women's bargaining position within the household and their ability to pursue economic opportunities. Although this reform now applies nationally, it was initially rolled out in the two chartered cities and three of Ethiopia's nine regions. Using nationally representative household surveys from just prior to the reform and five years later allows for a difference-in-difference estimation of the reform's impact. The analysis finds that women were relatively more likely to work in occupations that require work outside the home, employ more educated workers, and in paid and full-time jobs where the reform had been enacted, controlling for time and location effects. As the relative increase in women's participation in these activities was 15-24 percent higher in areas where the reform was carried out, the magnitude of the impact is significant too.
    Keywords: Gender and Law,Access to Finance,Population Policies,Gender and Development,Labor Policies
    Date: 2013–11–01
  13. By: Estian Calitz (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch); Krige Siebrits (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch); Ian Stuart (Treasury, Government of South Africa)
    Abstract: Forecasting accuracy is important for fiscal policy credibility. Three questions are posed. Firstly, are the forecasts by South Africa’s National Treasury good, compared to those of non-government economists? The paper compares Treasury’s forecasts to non-government projections and to those of other countries and over time. With reference to the mean absolute error and the root mean square error (van der Watt, 2013), it is concluded that nongovernment economists do not necessarily forecast GDP and inflation better than Treasury. Secondly, have the forecasts by National Treasury been good, over time and compared to those of other countries? The forecast error (the final figure minus the budget estimate) is calculated, using data for 2000/01-2010/11. This is most relevant because retrospectively the outcome of fiscal policy is analysed and judged with reference to final figures. National Treasury’s budget forecast errors are found to be significant. Margins of error in forecasting revenue, expenditure and GDP have partially neutralised each other in terms of their impact on the budget balance as a percentage of GDP. Except towards the end of the period, the fiscal balance was better than budgeted. On average and calculated as a percentage of GDP, revenue forecasting inaccuracies made the biggest contribution to inaccurate estimates of the budget balance, but this is largely explained by GDP forecasting inaccuracies. SA fiscal forecasts show a smaller forecast error than that of 14 member countries of the European Union. Thirdly, has the forecasting ability of National Treasury improved over time? A trend line shows higher Treasury forecast errors towards the end of the period and an underestimation bias for GDP and revenue forecasts. A simple example of the dynamics of fiscal politics is presented to demonstrate that a persistent underestimation of revenue could also erode fiscal credibility.
    Keywords: fiscal policy, fiscal forecasts, fiscal credibility
    JEL: E60 H3 H61 H62
    Date: 2013
  14. By: Van Campenhout, Bjorn; Raffinot, Marc; Ferry, Marin; Cassimon, Danny
    Abstract: After two debt relief initiatives launched in 1996 (the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries, HIPC Initiative) and in 1999 (The enhanced HIPC initiative), the G7 decided to go further by cancelling the remaining multilateral debt for these HIPC countries through the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI, 2005). A few papers tried to assess the desired fiscal response effects of those initiatives. This paper uses an extended dataset and alternative econometric techniques in order to tackle methodological issues as endogeneity and fixed effects. We found that debt relief and especially the enhanced HIPC initiative have had a positive impact on the total domestic revenue and the public investment (as percentages of the GDP). Thanks to our large observation span, we also observed that the MDRI led to a significant additional improvement of the level of public investment and domestic revenues ratio, although these effects are smaller than the HIPCs ones.
    Keywords: PPTE; IADM; HIPC; MDRI; Debt relief; Fiscal revenue; Public investment; Fiscal response;
    JEL: H20 H54 H63 O55 F34
    Date: 2013–01
  15. By: Bold, Tessa; Kimenyi, Mwangi; Mwabu, Germano; Sandefur, Justin
    Abstract: In 2003 Kenya abolished user fees in all government primary schools. Analysis of household survey data shows this policy contributed to a shift in demand away from free schools, where net enrollment stagnated after 2003, toward fee-charging private schools, where both enrollment and fee levels grew rapidly after 2003. These shifts had mixed distributional consequences. Enrollment by poorer households increased, but segregation between socio-economic groups also increased. The shift in demand toward private schooling was driven by more affluent households who (i) paid higher ex ante fees and thus experienced a larger reduction in school funding, and (ii) appear to have exited public schools partially in reaction to increased enrollment by poorer children.
    Keywords: Primary Education,Education For All,Teaching and Learning,Tertiary Education,Secondary Education
    Date: 2013–11–01
  16. By: Vaillant, Julia
    Abstract: Most longitudinal surveys recontact households only if they are still living in the same dwelling, producing very high attrition rates, especially in developing countries where rural–urban migration is prevalent. In this paper, we discuss the implications of the various follow-up rules used in longitudinal surveys in the light of an original tracking survey from Madagascar. This survey attempted in 2005 to search and interview all individuals who were living in the village of Bepako in 1995, the baseline year of a yearly survey, the Rural Observatories. The tracking survey yielded an individual recontact rate of 78.8 percent, more than halving attrition compared to a standard dwelling-based follow-up rule. The tracking reveals a very high rate of out-migration (38.8 percent) and household break-ups, as three-quarters of recontacted households had divided between 1995 and 2005. The average income growth of the sample over the period increases by 28 percentage points when follow-up is extended to those who moved out of their household or village, suggesting that dwelling-based panels give a partial view of the welfare dynamics of the baseline sample. A higher baseline income per capita is associated with a higher probability of staying in Bepako and of being found in the tracking if one moved out. The hardest people to find are the poorest and most isolated. Special attention should be paid to collecting data that enable the identification and follow-up of individuals, without which attrition is likely to remain a source of bias even after a tracking procedure is carried out.
    Keywords: Mobilité; Enquêtes tracking; Données de panel; Mobility; Attrition; Tracking surveys; Panel data;
    JEL: O15 O12 I32 C81
    Date: 2013
  17. By: Fakayode, Segun Bamidele; Belewu, M.A.; Muhammed, N.O.; Adekola, O.F.; Adebayo, G.B.; Ameen, O.M.; Raji, S. A.; Jimoh, A. A; Olaniyan, A.M
    Abstract: This study examined the viability of prospective Jatropha based firms vis–a-vis employment opportunities in Nigeria, specifically the study identified the Jatropha bio-diesel and other allied products that were been researched into in Nigeria, estimated the costs and returns structure to Jatropha cultivation and the production of Jatropha based products. For the study, small scale Jatropha based firms were investigated. The results of the study revealed that Jatropha based products manufactured include bio-diesel, Jatropha kernel cake livestock feed, Jatropha ink pigment and dye, glycerine and Jatropha seeds-coat cement sheet and floor tiles. All the various parts of the Jatropha seeds are useful either for one or two of these products. Jatropha cultivation, was shown to be very profitable. Among Jatropha products, only the costs of the biodiesel Jatropha fuel is relative expensive when compared with the common fossil diesel. Based on the study findings, the study calls for the mobilisation of the Nigerian farmers to cultivate Jatropha, Alongside training to intimate the masses of the numerous products and benefits from Jatropha is necessary. They should be trained to manufacture simple Jatropha based necessities like those highlighted in the study. Market accessibility training to farmers and other stakeholders involved should also be embedded in the training. There is also the need to popularize the practicality of using Jatropha to produce these products via workshops and seminars. It is also necessary to step-up steps at introducing these products to the markets so as to enhance the marketability and competitiveness of the Jatropha based firms. Government and also other individuals and stake-holders need ensure the availability of supporting infrastructures for these small holder industries to thrive in the long-run.
    Keywords: livestock feed, ink pigment, dye, glycerine, supporting infrastructures, Labor and Human Capital, Livestock Production/Industries,
    Date: 2012–11
  18. By: Jean-Claude Nsabimana; Nicolas Ndayishimiye; Christian Kwidera; Aurélien Beko
    Abstract: L’objectif général de l’étude est d’analyser la situation de la pauvreté au Burundi. Pour ce faire, trois objectifs spécifiques sont considérés : évaluer la pauvreté monétaire à l’aide d’une échelle d’équivalence ; construire un indicateur composite de la pauvreté basé sur l’approche multidimensionnelle ; et enfin identifier les principaux déterminants de la pauvreté. L’estimation du modèle d’Engel a permis de dégager trois échelles associées à trois tranches d’âges qui se sont révélées significatives. Il convient dès lors d’utiliser ces coefficients dans les études sur les conditions de vie au Burundi. Nos résultats montrent une sensibilité des mesures de pauvreté selon notre échelle empirique, si l’on ne tient pas compte des échelles. L’application de la méthode de l’analyse des correspondances multiples évalue la prévalence de la pauvreté multidimensionnelle à 70%, c’est à dire légèrement au-dessus de la prévalence de la pauvreté monétaire, évaluée à 69% selon le modèle empirique. Le caractère rural de la pauvreté a été mis en exergue par l’utilisation des approches monétaires et non monétaires. De plus, les tests de dominance stochastique révèlent que le sud et le nord sont les régions les plus touchées par le phénomène de pauvreté. L’utilisation du modèle Probit et Biprobit a permis de mettre en exergue les caractéristiques sociodémographiques qui contribuent le plus à la probabilité d’être pauvre. Des recommandations de politiques de lutte contre la pauvreté sont formulées à partir des résultats de l’étude.
    Keywords: pauvreté, Echelle d’équivalence, approche multidimensionnelle, seuil, Modèle logistique, déterminants de la pauvreté
    JEL: C01 C13 C14 C20 C81
    Date: 2013
  19. By: Ingelaere, Bert
    Abstract: Over the past years, there has been an increasing attention for the use of tradition-based or home-grown justice and reconciliation mechanisms in the aftermath of violent conflict. The Rwandan gacaca court system is often evoked in this global trend. The gacaca courts operated nationwide between 2005 and 2012. This policy briefing summarizes major findings and policy recommendations based on extensive field research conducted during these years.
    Keywords: Rwanda; gacaca
    Date: 2013–10
  20. By: Mesplé-Somps, Sandrine; Mercier, Marion; Gubert, Flore; Chauvet, Lisa
    Abstract: This paper assesses the impact of migrants' Home Town Associations (HTAs) located in France on the provision of local public goods in Mali. To this end, we computed a dataset on all the HTAs that have been created by Malian migrants in France since 1981 and geo-localised their interventions on the Malian territory. Thanks to Malian census data, we also built a panel dataset informing the provision of a range of public goods in all the Malian localities over the 1976-2009 period. These two sources of data allow us to implement a double di erence strategy, and to compare localities with and without an HTA, before and after its creation. We not only assess whether "having an HTA" makes a di erence in terms of local development, but also whether the intensity of the treatment as measured by the number of HTAs intervening in each locality or the number of year under treatment leads to di erentiated impacts. We nd that Malian HTAs have signi cantly contributed to improve the provision of water amenities (mainly fountains), health centers and electricity connection over the 1987-2009 period. The impact is found to be stronger when the focus is on the earlier period (before 1998).
    Keywords: HTA; Home Town Associations; International Migration; Public Goods;
    JEL: F22 H41 H75 O55
    Date: 2013–06
  21. By: Venet, Baptiste; Arestoff, Florence
    Abstract: In Madagascar, Orange introduced its mobile banking services in September 2010. Mobile-banking (m-banking) is a system that allows users to conduct a number of financial transactions through a mobile phone. The existing body of literature suggests that the use of m-banking services may have a positive impact on individual savings, affect money transfer behavior and/or encourage financial inclusion. In 2012, we conducted a survey of 598 randomly selected Orange clients in Antananarivo. We use the matching methodology to assess the impacts of m-banking on clients' financial behavior. The results show that the use of m-banking services increases the number of national remittances sent and received. It is in line with the conclusions of the existing literature devoted to M-Pesa in Kenya. Yet we find that using of m-banking services has no significant impact on the sums saved by users or the sums of remittances sent and received, which appears to contradict the users' perceptions. This result may, however, be explained by a learning-by-doing process: users need to first learn to trust the e-money system before making any significant changes to their financial behavior.
    Keywords: Banque mobile; Matching; Comportements financiers; Pays en développement; Mobile banking; Low Income countries; Financial behavior; Matching methodology;
    JEL: G2 G21 O16
    Date: 2013–09
  22. By: Dieudonné Bleossi Dahoun; Olivier Manlan; Cosme Vodonou; Saint-Martin Mongan; Damien Mededji; Janvier P. Alofa
    Abstract: Cette étude apprécie l’impact du microcrédit sur l’autonomisation des femmes chefs de ménages au Bénin à partir de la méthode des groupes appariés, inspirée des travaux de Rosenbaum & Rubin [1983], Rubin [2006] et Abadie & Imbens [2006]. A cet effet et au regard des données disponibles (EMICoV 2010), quatre principales dimensions d’autonomisation ont été retenues, à savoir : (i) alphabétisme et niveau d’instruction, (ii) responsabilités sociales et conditions de vie, (iii) participation et droits politiques et (iv) participation et droits culturels. Les résultats obtenus suggèrent globalement un impact positif et significatif du microcrédit sur l’autonomisation des femmes au Bénin, en particulier les pauvres. Cet impact global est l’expression de l’effet significatif du microcrédit sur les dimensions « responsabilités sociales et condition des vie » et « participation et droits culturels » de l’autonomisation. Ainsi, en permettant aux femmes d’être économiquement actives, le microcrédit leur permet d’avoir des possibilités de s’informer et de constituer notamment des actifs physiques qui leur permet d’acquérir plus d’influence dans la communauté.
    Keywords: Revenu des Ménages - Autonomisation des femmes - Impact de la politique de Microcrédit - Pauvreté - Responsabilités sociales et conditions de vie - Méthode des groupes appariés
    JEL: C52 H32 D12
    Date: 2013
  23. By: Go, Delfin S.; Robinson, Sherman; Thierfelder, Karen; Utz, Robert
    Abstract: This paper examines spending plans suggested by the recent literature regarding Dutch disease and examines their implications to Niger relative to its expanding mineral sector. The key to the benefits of significant mineral revenue lies with the productivity and supply responses of spending. If significant output gain is ensured, then there is little difference across the spending plans in their effects on real consumption. The overshooting of relative prices of the non-tradable sector or the shrinking share of traded sectors in gross domestic product is also ameliorated with greater supply flexibility. Growth paths of alternative spending strategies differ markedly in timing and pattern when spending does not raise productivity. As a caution against expectations that exaggerate the benefits of mineral revenue under all circumstances, the more aggressive spending plan may result in a boom-bust cycle if fiscal adjustments and debt repayments are necessary for any significant borrowing against future revenue and productivity gains are not realized. Using extractive industries revenue for transfers to households would have a greater effect on poverty reduction in the short and medium term but the long-run gains from investment in human and physical capital are likely to offset the initial lack of pro-poor bias. Different strategies differ significantly with regard to risks and required technical implementation capacity and political capacity to sustain a chosen course of action.
    Keywords: Economic Theory&Research,Debt Markets,Emerging Markets,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Banks&Banking Reform
    Date: 2013–11–01
  24. By: Ansgar Belke; Christian Dreger
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of global oil and food price shocks to consumer prices in Middle East-North African (MENA) countries using threshold cointegration methods. Oil and food price shocks increase domestic prices in the long run, whereby the impact of food prices dominates. While global prices are weakly exogenous, consumer prices respond to deviations from the equilibrium relationship. The shortrun adjustment pattern exhibits asymmetries and is particularly strong after positive shocks. Downward rigidities on wages may play a crucial role in this regard, as the relatively weak reactions of consumer prices after negative shocks are related to labour market institutions and public subsidies. The more rigid the regulations the more pronounced are the asymmetries. Robustness checks show that international price shocks do not affect GDP growth.
    Keywords: Oil and food price transmission; asymmetric error correction; MENA region
    JEL: C22 E31 Q02
    Date: 2013–10
  25. By: Razafindrakoto, Mireille; Roubaud, François; Wachsberger, Jean-Michel
    Abstract: The classical and more recent theories on development all fail to explain Madagascar’s long-running economic underperformance. This paper proposes a reinterpretation of Malagasy history based on the analytical framework of political economy. Our analyses point to the fact that, despite deep-rooted blockages, Madagascar has shown an unexpected capacity to transform and modernise: economic transition (with the emergence of a new entrepreneurial class) and political transition (with democratic alternation of power); the setting up of sound institutions that characterise “modern” societies; control of violence; and the Malagasy people’s expression of their economic and civic aspirations. However, three structural constraints hinder the country’s development. Firstly, social fragmentation, an atomised population and the atrophy of intermediary bodies foster a high concentration of power in the hands of a few elites who are neither compelled nor encouraged to develop a medium- or long-term vision and take the interests of the vast majority into consideration. Secondly, although the Malagasy people lay claim to democratic principles, they remain torn between the demands of democratic and meritocratic nature and the traditional values that impose respect for the real and symbolic hierarchies they have inherited from the past. Finally, although the policies promoted and sometimes imposed by international donors may have had some positive effects, they have also had a hugely negative impact on the State’s capacity to regulate society.
    Keywords: Economie politique; Elites; Croissance de long terme; structure sociale; Rentes; Violence; Political economy; Madagascar; Elite; long term growth; social structure; Rents;
    JEL: N37 N47 O55 Z13
    Date: 2013–10

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