nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2013‒10‒18
forty papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. The impact of tax incentives to stimulate investment in South Africa By Estian Calitz; Sally Wallace; Le Roux Burrows
  2. Development at the border: policies and national integration in Côte d’Ivoire and its neighbors By Cogneau, Denis; Mesplé-Somps, Sandrine; Spielvogel, Gilles
  3. Sources of Subsectoral Growth in South Africa By Fiona Tregenna
  4. A question of efficiency: decomposing South African reading test scores using PIRLS 2006 By Debra Shepherd
  5. The Impact of the Slave Trade on Literacy in Africa: Evidence from the Colonial Era By Nonso Obikili
  6. Anatomy of the Southern African Customs Union: Structure and Revenue Volatility By Harold P.E. Ngalawa
  7. Hidden Redistribution in Higher Education By Perrotta Berlin, Maria
  8. Financing Water in Africa By Kate Bayliss
  9. Transportation choices and the value of statistical life By Gianmarco León; Edward Miguel
  10. Jatropha Potential on Marginal Land in Ethiopia: Reality or Myth? By Mengistu Assefa Wendimu
  11. Dependence on Environmental Resources and Implications for Household Welfare: Evidence from the Kalahari Drylands, South Africa By Gladman Thondhlana and Edwin Muchapondwa
  12. Estimating the benefits of linking ties in a deeply divided society: considering the relationship between domestic workers and their employers in South Africa By Ronelle Burger; Marisa Coetzee; Carina van der Watt
  13. Health Care Facility Choice and User Fee Abolition: Regression Discontinuity in a Multinomial Choice Setting By Steven F. Koch and Jeffrey S. Racine
  14. Can Trade Reduce Poverty in Africa? By Maëlan Le Goff; Rajun Jan Singh
  15. Impact of Information and Communication Technology-based Market Information Services on Smallholder Farm Input Use and Productivity: The Case of Kenya By Ogutu, Sylvester O.; Okello, Julius K.; Otieno, David J.
  16. Modeling the Cost-effectiveness of HIV/AIDS Interventions in Different Socio-economic Contexts in South Africa (2007-2020) By Josue Mbonigaba
  17. Important Channels of Transmission Monetary Policy Shock in South Africa By Nombulelo Gumata, Alain Kabundi and Eliphas Ndou
  18. Microfinance efficiency in the West African economic and monetary union: have reforms promoted sustainability or outreach? By Sandrine Kaplan
  19. The global financial crisis: An analysis of the spillover effects on African stock markets By Sugimoto, Kimiko; Matsuki, Takashi; Yoshida, Yushi
  20. Efficient Market Hypothesis in South Africa: Evidence from a threshold autoregressive (TAR) model By Van Heerden , Dorathea; Rodrigues, Jose; Hockly, Dale; Lambert, Bongani; Taljard, Tjaart; Phiri, Andrew
  21. The impact of fertility on household economic status in Cameroon, mali and Senegal By KUEPIE Mathias; SAIDOU HAMADOU Théophile
  22. Health Cycles and Health Transitions By Chakraborty, Shankha; Papageorgiou, Chris; Perez Sebastian, Fidel
  23. Smallholder Farmers Participation in Livestock Market in Zambia By Lubungu, Mary; Chapoto, Antony; Tembo, Gelson
  24. Up in smoke ? agricultural commercialization, rising food prices and stunting in Malawi By Wood, Benjamin; Nelson, Carl; Kilic, Talip; Murray, Siobhan
  25. Burkina Faso : Perceived Shocks, Vulnerability, Food Insecurity, and Poverty By World Bank
  26. Service Delivery with More Districts in Uganda : Fiscal Challenges and Opportunities for Reforms By World Bank
  27. Financial Sector Assessment Program : Nigeria - IOSCO Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation By International Monetary Fund; World Bank
  28. Urbanization with and without Structural Transformation By Douglas Gollin; Remi Jedwab; Dietrich Vollrath
  29. Republic of South Sudan : Country Integrated Fiduciary Assessment Southern Sudan, Volume 3. South Sudan Procurement Assessment Report By World Bank
  30. Mali : Poverty and Gender Notes By World Bank
  31. Uganda - Diagnostic Trade Integration Study Update : Prepared for the Enhanced Integrated Framework By World Bank
  32. Burkina Faso : Non-Monetary Poverty and Gender Inequalities, 1993-2010 Trends By World Bank
  33. Financial Sector Assessment Program : Nigeria - Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision By International Monetary Fund; World Bank
  34. Politiques publiques et pauvreté : trois études de cas d'évaluation des performances de ciblage et d'analyse d'impact. By Backiny Yetna, Prosper Romuald
  35. Financial Sector Assessment Program Update : Nigeria - Strengthening Monetary and Liquidity Management By International Monetary Fund; World Bank
  36. Financial Sector Assessment Program : Nigeria - Crisis Management and Crisis Preparedness Frameworks By International Monetary Fund; World Bank
  37. Republic of South Sudan : The Rapid Water Sector Needs Assessment and a Way Forward By Nihal Fernando; Walter Garvey
  38. Wage Subsidy in the DRC: A CGE Analysis By Jean Luc Erero, Daniel Djauhari Pambudi and Lumengo Bonga Bonga
  39. Burkina Faso : What is Driving Cotton Production, Stochastic Frontier Approach for Panel Data By World Bank
  40. Burkina Faso : Determinants of Cereal Production, Stochastic Frontier Approach for Panel Data By World Bank

  1. By: Estian Calitz (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch); Sally Wallace (Department of Economics, Georgia State University); Le Roux Burrows (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is, very generally, to provide a framework and potential methodology of analysis of tax incentives in one country — South Africa. As incentives are often specific and targeted, the precise methods needed to analyse the effectiveness of incentives may well differ among types of incentives. However, by positing a framework for evaluation based on basic economic principles, we believe that transparency, accountability and rigorous evaluation of individual incentives or regarding the choice of incentives may be enhanced. A classification of different tax incentives is provided, with reference to their acceptability in the economic literature and with an indication of their occurrence in South Africa. The cost of tax incentives to manufacturing in South Africa is estimated by sector of economic activity, indicating a sizeable drain on the national budget, and a multiplier analysis of current tax incentives is undertaken.
    Keywords: South African tax incentives, Investment incentives, tax policy, tax incentives, tax expenditure
    JEL: H2 H25 H3
    Date: 2013
  2. By: Cogneau, Denis; Mesplé-Somps, Sandrine; Spielvogel, Gilles
    Abstract: By applying regression discontinuity designs to a set of household surveys from the 1980–90s, we examine whether Côte d’Ivoire’s aggregate wealth was translated at the borders of neighboring countries. At the border of Ghana and at the end of the 1980s, large discontinuities are detected for consumption, child stunting, and access to electricity and safe water. Border discontinuities in consumption can be explained by differences in cash crop policies (cocoa and coffee). When these policies converged in the 1990s, the only differences that persisted were those in rural facilities. In the North, cash crop (cotton) income again made a difference for consumption and nutrition (the case of Mali). On the one hand, large differences in welfare can hold at the borders dividing African countries despite their assumed porosity. On the other hand, border discontinuities seem to reflect the impact of reversible public policies rather than intangible institutional traits.
    Keywords: national integration; Africa; borders; economic geography; welfare
    JEL: O12 R12 P52
    Date: 2013–10
  3. By: Fiona Tregenna
    Abstract: While South Africa’s growth performance has improved somewhat in recent years, it has generally been poor over the past few decades. This article uses Chenery’s factor decomposition method to analyse the sources of growth in South Africa from 1970 to 2007. Using input-output data, the growth of each subsector is decomposed into components associated with export growth, import substitution, growth in domestic demand, and growth in intermediate demand. The results highlight the dependence on domestic demand expansion as a source of growth since 2000, especially for manufacturing. Subsectors which relied primarily on domestic demand expansion generally performed relatively poorly. Technological change is the only component of growth with a consistently positive and statistically significant correlation with subsectoral growth. The analysis contributes to a better understanding of growth in South Africa, particularly in terms of subsectoral dynamics.
    Keywords: Growth, sectors, factor decomposition, structural change, Chenery, South Africa
    JEL: C67 D57 E20 O11 O14 O40
    Date: 2013
  4. By: Debra Shepherd (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)
    Abstract: The "bimodal" pattern of performance observed in South Africa illustrates the persistence with which learners of former Black schools continue to lag behind their "advantaged" counterparts. It is posited that the poor functioning of former Black schools accounts for this result. A nationally representative dataset of grade 5 learners and counterfactual distribution and decomposition techniques are adopted to identify the part of the performance gap that may be explained by differences in (i) the returns structure and (ii) school characteristics composition. The former is found to be 18.9 percent of the average gap and increases significantly over the outcome distribution.
    Keywords: bimodal performance, effectiveness, decomposition, South Africa
    JEL: C31 I21 I25
    Date: 2013
  5. By: Nonso Obikili
    Abstract: Recent studies have highlighted the importance of Africa's history of slave exporting to its current economic development. In this paper I show that differences in investment in education may be one of the channels through which that history has affected current development. I combine data on literacy rates of administrative districts from the colonial censuses of Nigeria and Ghana from the 1950's with data on slave exports of different ethnic groups. I find a negative and signicant relationship between slave export intensity before the colonial era and literacy rates during the colonial era. I also use contemporary data on literacy rates from the 2010 Nigerian Literacy Survey and find that this negative relationship is still present and significant. Thus, I show that the slave trades affected development through channels other than inter-ethnic group confliict or formal nation-state level institutions.
    Keywords: Africa, Slave trades, Human Capital, Development
    JEL: O10 N37 N97 I25
    Date: 2013
  6. By: Harold P.E. Ngalawa
    Abstract: This paper studies the evolution of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), tracing it from its inception in 1889 as the Customs Union Convention, the world’s first customs union, to its current status. While the union has operated under different agreements, which have been negotiated and renegotiated with changing circumstances, the study identifies the agreements of 1889, 1910, 1969 and 2002 as key to the union’s transformation. It is observed that SACU has evolved from a geopolitical organisation with a repressive colonial foundation to a well-integrated regional trading bloc that is perceived as a possible springboard for larger regional trading blocs in Africa. The study further explores evidence of declining SACU revenue, and investigates its implications on government expenditures in the small members of the union, namely, Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland (BLNS Countries). It is found that among the members of the union, Lesotho and Swaziland are the most dependent on SACU transfers and consequently the most vulnerable to the current downward trend in SACU revenue. While Namibia has traditionally relied on diamond exports, it has also been receiving large SACU transfers relative to its GDP. In addition, the study observes that the present SACU revenue sharing formula adopted in 2002 exposes the BLNS countries to instabilities arising from global business cycles more than it does South Africa.
    Keywords: customs union, public expenditure, government revenue
    JEL: N17 H27 H50
    Date: 2013
  7. By: Perrotta Berlin, Maria (Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics)
    Abstract: Low income countries, and in particular countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, have invested huge resources over the last 40 years in financing higher (university level) education, compared with the number of students at that level and with the corresponding expenditures for lower levels of education. I propose and test an elite capture hypothesis: that expenditure in tertiary education is partly used as a tool for redistribution towards the elites close to the political leaders. I fi nd that this hypothesis can explain a substantial part of the within-country variation in expenditures levels.
    Keywords: higher education; public expenditures; inefficient redistribution; Sub-Saharan Africa
    JEL: C81 H52 I22 O55
    Date: 2013–08–06
  8. By: Kate Bayliss (Department of Economics, SOAS, University of London, UK)
    Abstract: Despite repeated policy initiatives from donors and governments, the human and economic cost of continued lack of access to safe water and sanitation in sub-Saharan Africa remains high. This paper shows that a radical reorientation of policy is needed to achieve a significant increase in investment finance in order to raise access levels. Rather than continuing to pursue policies that have failed for the past two decades, such as bringing in the private sector and raising prices to cost recovery levels, attention needs to shift to wider aspects of domestic revenue mobilization to support public investment.
    Keywords: Water, privatisation, private sector participation, PPP, cost recovery, pricing, equity, inequality
    JEL: D40 L95 H1 H2 H4
    Date: 2013–08
  9. By: Gianmarco León; Edward Miguel
    Abstract: This paper exploits an unusual transportation setting to estimate the value of a statistical life (VSL). We estimate the trade-offs individuals are willing to make between mortality risk and cost as they travel to and from the international airport in Sierra Leone (which is separated from the capital Freetown by a body of water). Travelers choose from among multiple transport options – namely, ferry, helicopter, hovercraft, and water taxi. The setting and original dataset allow us to address some typical omitted variable concerns in order to generate some of the first revealed preference VSL estimates from Africa. The data also allows us to compare VSL estimates for travelers from 56 countries, including 20 African and 36 non-African countries, all facing the same choice situation. The average VSL estimate for African travelers in the sample is US$577,000 compared to US$924,000 for non-Africans. Individual characteristics, particularly job earnings, can largely account for the difference between Africans and non-Africans; Africans in the sample typically earn somewhat less. There is little evidence that individual VSL estimates are driven by a lack of information, predicted life expectancy, or cultural norms around risktaking or fatalism. The data implies an income elasticity of the VSL of 1.77. These revealed preference VSL estimates from a developing country fill an important gap in the existing literature, and can be used for a variety of public policy purposes, including in current debates within Sierra Leone regarding the desirability of constructing new transportation infrastructure.
    Keywords: Value of statistical life; risk taking behavior; Africa; Sierra Leone
    JEL: J17 O18
    Date: 2013–09
  10. By: Mengistu Assefa Wendimu (Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS); Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen)
    Abstract: Rising oil prices, concerns about climate change, and future energy supplies have contributed to growing interest in the use of liquid biofuels in the transport sector which, in turn, has driven large-scale land acquisitions in developing countries for biofuel feedstock production, mainly jatropha. The increasing trend of land acquisition for biofuels has led to the widespread debate about food versus biofuel because of the perceived competition for land and water. To avoid the food versus fuel debate, the use of “marginal” land for biofuel feedstock production (jatropha) has emerged as a dominant narrative. But both the availability and suitability of “marginal” land for commercial level jatropha production is not well understood/examined, especially in Africa. Using a case study of large-scale jatropha plantation in Ethiopia, this paper examines the process of land identification for jatropha investments, and the agronomic performance of large-scale jatropha plantation on so-called marginal land. Although it has been argued that jatropha can be grown well on marginal land without irrigation, and thus does not compete for land and water or displace food production from agricultural land, this study indicates that moisture stress is the key factor in the failure of many large-scale jatropha plantations in Ethiopia.
    Keywords: biofuels; jatropha; marginal land; large-scale; Ethiopia
    JEL: Q15 Q16 Q42
    Date: 2013–10
  11. By: Gladman Thondhlana and Edwin Muchapondwa
    Abstract: This paper examines dependence on environmental resources and impacts on household welfare among the indigenous San and Mier rural communities neighbouring Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park in the arid Kalahari region, South Africa. Data on the various household income types, including environmental income, were collected through a structured survey of 200 households. Environmental income constituted 20% of total income, indicating a substantial dependence on environmental resources. The poorest income quintile had the highest environmental income share (31%), though absolute income from environmental resources increased with total income. Analysis of household income with and without environmental income shows that environmental resources shield households, especially the low-income ones, from poverty. Further, Gini-coefficient analyses revealed an important income inequality reduction potential of environmental resources among households. Given the current proposal to grant local communities access to environmental resources inside the Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park, our results predict household welfare improvements from such a proposal. However, the findings underscore the need to sustainably manage environmental resources (access and extraction) inside and outside the park to balance ecological and socio-economic needs.
    Keywords: Kalahari drylands, environmental resources, indigenous people, dependence, income diversification, household welfare
    Date: 2013
  12. By: Ronelle Burger (Departement Ekonomie, Universiteit van Stellenbosch); Marisa Coetzee (Departement Ekonomie, Universiteit van Stellenbosch); Carina van der Watt (Departement Ekonomie, Universiteit van Stellenbosch)
    Abstract: In South Africa social exclusion remains a problem due to the multiple and overlapping divisions in post-apartheid society and the lack of linking ties bridging the worlds of those who have plenty and those without. To quantify the potential benefit of such linking ties for socio-economic mobility, we examine the relationship between domestic workers and their employers – a case where we find frequent, proximate and intimate contact between individuals from these two different worlds. We construct a well matched comparison group for domestic workers via propensity score matching using a pooled version of seven General Household Surveys. The households of domestic workers appear to have lower unemployment duration and better quality jobs, a higher likelihood of owning assets and a lower prevalence of child and adult hunger. These differences provide evidence that the linking ties of domestic workers with their more affluent employers increase well-being in a way that is consistent with social network theory.
    Keywords: Social capital, social networks, domestic workers, inequality, South Africa
    JEL: Z13 Z10 D63
    Date: 2013
  13. By: Steven F. Koch and Jeffrey S. Racine
    Abstract: We apply parametric and nonparametric regression discontinuity methodology within a multinomial choice setting to examine the impact of public health care user fee abolition on health facility choice using data from South Africa. The nonparametric model is found to outperform the parametric model both in- and out-of-sample, while also delivering more plausible estimates of the impact of user fee abolition (i.e. the `treatment effect'). In the parametric framework, treatment effects were relatively constant { around 7% { and that increase was drawn equally from both home care and private care groups. On the other hand, in the nonpara-metric framework treatment effects were largest for the least well-off (also around 7%) but fell for the most well-off. More plausibly, that increase was drawn primarily from the home care group, suggesting that the policy favoured those least well-off as more of these children received at least some minimum level of professional health care after the policy was implemented. Regarding the most well-off, despite having access to free public health care, children were still far more likely to receive health care at private facilities than at public facilities, which is also more plausible in South Africa's two-tier health sector.
    Keywords: Health care facility, User fee abolition, Regression Discontinuity
    Date: 2013
  14. By: Maëlan Le Goff; Rajun Jan Singh
    Keywords: International Economics and Trade - Free Trade International Economics and Trade - Trade Policy Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Economic Theory and Research Poverty Reduction - Achieving Shared Growth Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Date: 2013–04
  15. By: Ogutu, Sylvester O.; Okello, Julius K.; Otieno, David J.
    Abstract: Information asymmetry has traditionally constrained smallholder farmers’ access to markets. Past studies indicate that it inhibits adoption of modern technologies that have the capacity to enhance productivity of smallholder farms. Hence, farm productivity and agricultural transformation has been stifled, leaving smallholder famers in grinding poverty. Improved smallholder farmers’ access to markets via the recent Information and Communication Technology (ICT) platforms could reverse this scenario. This study uses Propensity Score Matching (PSM) technique to evaluate the impact of participation in an ICT-based market information service (MIS) project on farm input use and productivity in Kenya. It finds strong empirical evidence on the benefits of ICT use in market linkage. Specifically, it finds that participation in the ICT-based MIS project has positive and significant impact on the usage of improved seeds and fertilizers. It also improves land and labour productivity, but has negative and significant impact on the usage of hired and family labour. These findings have vital policy implications on the use of ICT tools as a development strategy.
    Keywords: ICT, Impact assessment, PSM, Market Access, Input Use, Productivity, Crop Production/Industries, Production Economics, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,
    Date: 2013–09
  16. By: Josue Mbonigaba
    Abstract: Evidence of how cost-effectiveness (CE) of an HIV/AIDS intervention compares in a rural context and an urban context is deficient yet crucial to potential efficiency in resource allocations in South Africa. To inform policy makers about such potential, the CE of major HIV/AIDS interventions is estimated in these contexts over the period 2007-2020. Two versions of Spectrum Policy Modeling System (SPMS) are constructed; one for a rural context and another for an urban context. Then each version is populated with context-specific parameters, before being used to project the annual number of patients and health outcomes of an HIV/AIDS intervention and a related USUAL CARE. The cost evidence for an HIV/AIDS intervention and related USUAL CARE is applied to projected number of patients and the incremental CE ratio (ICER) of an HIV/AIDS intervention relative to USUAL CARE in each context is estimated. The ICERs in the two contexts for the same HIV/AIDS intervention are then used to compare the CE of that HIV/AIDS intervention across contexts. The paper finds that CE estimates of an HIV/AIDS intervention across a rural context and an urban context differ and the extent of that difference varies across HIV/AIDS interventions. Therefore, policy makers can increase efficiency by allocating resources in HIV/AIDS interventions in socio-economic contexts according to CE variations in such contexts.
    Keywords: HIV/AIDS, rural, urban, socio-economic, interventions, South Africa, modeling, Spectrum, projections
    Date: 2013
  17. By: Nombulelo Gumata, Alain Kabundi and Eliphas Ndou
    Abstract: This paper investigates the di¤erent channels of transmission of monetary policy shock in South Africa in a data-rich environment. The analysis contains 165 quarterly variables observed from 1990Q1 to 2012Q2. We use a Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressive model, which can easily accommodate a large cross-section of variables without running out of degree of freedom. The benefit of this framework is its ability to handle different channels of transmission of monetary policy simultaneously, instead of using different models. The model includes five channels of transmission: credit, interest rate, asset prices, exchange rate, and expectations. The results show that all channels seem potent, but their magnitudes and importance differ. The results indicate that the interest rate channel is the most important transmitter of the shock, followed by the exchange rate, expectation, and credit channels. The asset price channel is somewhat weak.
    Keywords: Bayesian VAR, Monetary policy transmission; Balance sheets, large
    JEL: C11 C13 C33 C53
    Date: 2013
  18. By: Sandrine Kaplan
    Abstract: This study assesses whether the undertaken reforms in the microfinance industry in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) have promoted sustainability or outreach. To this purpose we use a data envelopment analysis (DEA) to measure the social efficiency on the one hand and the financial efficiency on the other hand. Our results show that social efficiency decreases, while financial efficiency increases. Moreover, reforms have a negative impact on social efficiency. Indeed, prudential ratios and accounting standards that were implemented led MFIs to abandon their social role.
    Keywords: microfinance efficiency, outreach and sustainability, regulatory programs, WAEMU
    JEL: C23 C61 C67 G21 O16 O55
    Date: 2013–10–08
  19. By: Sugimoto, Kimiko; Matsuki, Takashi; Yoshida, Yushi
    Abstract: This paper examines the relative importance of the global and regional markets for financial markets in developing countries, particularly during the US financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis. We examine the way in which the degree of regional (seven African markets combined), global (China, France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US), commodity (gold and petroleum), and nominal effective exchange rate (Euro and US dollar) spillovers to individual African countries evolve during the two crises through the econometric method introduced by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). We find that African markets are most severely affected by spillovers from global markets and modestly from commodity and currency markets. Conversely, the regional spillovers within Africa are smaller than the global ones and are insulated from the global crises. We also find that the aggregated spillover effects of European countries to the African markets exceeded that of the US even at the wake of the US financial crisis.
    Keywords: African financial market; financial crisis; financial integration; spillover; variance decomposition.
    JEL: F36 G15 O55
    Date: 2013–10
  20. By: Van Heerden , Dorathea; Rodrigues, Jose; Hockly, Dale; Lambert, Bongani; Taljard, Tjaart; Phiri, Andrew
    Abstract: This study deviates from the conventional use of a linear approach in testing for the efficiency market hypothesis (EMH) for the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) between the periods 2001:01 to 2013:07. By making use of a threshold autoregressive (TAR) model and corresponding asymmetric unit root tests, our study demonstrates how the stock market indexes evolve as highly persistent, nonlinear process and yet for a majority of the time series under observation, the formal unit root tests reject the hypothesis of stationarity among the variables. These results bridge two opposing contentions obtained from previous studies by concluding that while a number of stock prices under the JSE stock market may not evolve as pure unit root processes, the time series are, however, highly persistent to an extent of being able to be deemed as weak-form efficient.
    Keywords: Keywords: Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Johannesburg stock Exchange (JSE), South Africa, Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) model, Unit Roots.
    JEL: C01 C13 C22 G10
    Date: 2013–10–10
  21. By: KUEPIE Mathias; SAIDOU HAMADOU Théophile
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to measure the impact of family size on the socioeconomic status of households in three sub-Saharan African countries (Cameroon, Mali and Senegal). This study has a microeconomic tie-in with the theory of social capillarity, which states that the smaller the family, the better its chances of climbing the social ladder, and that a high birth rate hampers the probability of social mobility and can therefore impoverish families. We use recent demographic and health survey data from the three countries to test this hypothesis. These data have the advantage of providing detailed information on fertility, durable goods and households? housing characteristics. The information is used to build suitable indicators of household assets and of fertility and its instruments. Methodologically, we take rigorous tests to show that fertility can be considered as exogenous in the three countries in question. The estimates consequently find that fertility has a negative impact on the socioeconomic status of women and that this effect is strongest in Cameroon and Senegal, while it is weaker in Mali. Quantile regressions find that demographic pressure has more of a negative effect on assets when households are in the first quartile of the distribution of assets than when they are in the last quartile. These findings are robust to different alternative specifications. An obvious policy recommendation is the importance of putting in place effective family planning policies.
    Keywords: Fertility; Poverty; Household behaviour; social capillarity
    JEL: D81 D82 I11 I31 O15
    Date: 2013–10
  22. By: Chakraborty, Shankha; Papageorgiou, Chris; Perez Sebastian, Fidel
    Abstract: We study the dynamics of poverty and health in a model of endogenous growth and rational health behavior. Population health depends on the prevalence of infectious diseases that can be avoided through costly prevention. The incentive to do so comes from the negative effects of ill health on the quality and quantity of life. The model can generate a poverty trap where infectious diseases cycle between high and low prevalence. These cycles originate from the rationality of preventive behavior in contrast to the predator-prey dynamics of epidemiological models. We calibrate the model to reflect sub-Saharan Africa's recent economic recovery and analyze policy alternatives. Unconditional transfers are found to improve welfare relative to conditional health-based transfers: at low income levels, income growth (quality of life) is valued more than improvements to health (quantity of life).
    Keywords: Infectious Disease, Cycles, Economic Epidemiology, Morbidity, Mortality, Conditional Transfers, Unconditional Transfers
    JEL: I15 O11 O40 O47
    Date: 2013–10–10
  23. By: Lubungu, Mary; Chapoto, Antony; Tembo, Gelson
    Abstract: This study uses longitudinal household data collected in 2001, 2004, and 2008 to identify factors that influence Zambian smallholder farmers' participation in livestock markets. Although livestock ownership increased during the study period, not all provinces experienced the upward trend. While livestock populations increased in Southern and Central Provinces, they remained stagnant in Eastern, North western and Lusaka Provinces and reduced in Western Province. Not only has herd size remained stagnant over the years, but the level of participation of smallholder farmers in the livestock markets has also remained largely the same. Crop commercialization and participation in off-farm activities reduces the likelihood of participation in cattle markets but not in the markets for small livestock.
    Keywords: Consumer/Household Economics, Livestock Production/Industries,
    Date: 2013–08
  24. By: Wood, Benjamin; Nelson, Carl; Kilic, Talip; Murray, Siobhan
    Abstract: Diversification into high-value cash crops among smallholders has been propagated as a strategy to improve welfare in rural areas. However, the extent to which cash crop production spurs projected gains remains an under-researched question, especially in the context of market imperfections leading to non-separable production and consumption decisions, and price shocks to staple crops that might be displaced on the farm by cash crops. This study is a contribution to the long-standing debate on the links between commercialization and nutrition. It uses nationally-representative household surveydata from Malawi, and estimates the effect of household adoption of an export crop, namely tobacco, on child height-for-age z-scores. Given the endogenous nature of household tobacco adoption, the analysis relies on instrumental variable regressions, and isolates the causal effect by comparing impact estimates informed by two unique samples of children that differ in their exposure to an exogenous domestic staple food price shock during the early child development window (from conception through two years of age). The analysis finds that household tobacco production in the year of or the year after child birth, combined with exposure to an exogenous domestic staple food price shock, lowers the child height-for-age z-score by 1.27, implying a 70-percent drop in z-score. The negative effect is, however, not statistically significant among children who were not exposed to the same shock. The results put emphasis on the food insecurity and malnutrition risks materializing at times of high food prices, which might have disproportionately adverse effects on uninsured cash crop producers.
    Keywords: Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Food&Beverage Industry,Rural Poverty Reduction,Regional Economic Development
    Date: 2013–10–01
  25. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Food and Beverage Industry Agriculture - Food Security Poverty Reduction - Rural Poverty Reduction Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Regional Economic Development Industry
    Date: 2013–06
  26. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Public Sector Economics Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Subnational Economic Development Governance - National Governance Public Sector Expenditure Policy Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Public Sector Development
    Date: 2013–06
  27. By: International Monetary Fund; World Bank
    Keywords: Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Markets and Market Access Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Banks and Banking Reform
    Date: 2013–05
  28. By: Douglas Gollin (University of Oxford); Remi Jedwab (George Washington University and LSE); Dietrich Vollrath (University of Houston)
    Abstract: We document several new facts regarding urbanization and structural change in developing countries and develop a model that can account for them. Most developing countries follow a standard pattern: urbanization is a by-product of either "push" from agricultural productivity growth or a "pull" from industrial productivity growth. In these countries urbanization occurs with structural transformation and cities are "production cities", with a mix of workers in tradable and non-tradable sectors. For a distinct subset of countries that rely on natural resource exports, however, urbanization has increased at an equally rapid pace, but it is not associated with an increased importance of manufacturing and services in GDP. In these countries urbanization has taken place in "consumption cities" where the mix of workers is heavily skewed towards non-tradable services. We adapt a standard model of structural transformation to explain how natural resources can both drive urbanization as well as shift the composition of the urban labor force. The model may help explain why natural resource exporters - and Sub-Saharan Africa in particular - have experienced urbanization without structural transformation, which has implications for the pace of long-run growth in these areas.
    Date: 2013
  29. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Law and Development - Contract Law Private Sector Development - E-Business International Economics and Trade - Government Procurement Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures Finance and Financial Sector Development - Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress Public Sector Development
    Date: 2013–06
  30. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Poverty Reduction - Poverty Lines Poverty Reduction - Rural Poverty Reduction Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Regional Economic Development Poverty Reduction - Achieving Shared Growth
    Date: 2013–05
  31. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Private Sector Development - E-Business Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Transport Economics Policy and Planning Environmental Economics and Policies Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Environment Transport
    Date: 2013–04
  32. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Gender - Gender and Development Health, Nutrition and Population - Population Policies Poverty Reduction - Rural Poverty Reduction Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Regional Economic Development
    Date: 2013–06
  33. By: International Monetary Fund; World Bank
    Keywords: Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Finance and Financial Sector Development - Financial Intermediation Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets
    Date: 2013–05
  34. By: Backiny Yetna, Prosper Romuald
    Abstract: Ce travail est consacré à l’évaluation des performances de ciblage et à l’analyse d’impact de trois projets. La première étude porte sur l’accès à l’eau courante en République du Congo ; et l’auto-ciblage pratiqué à travers une tarification spécifique ne bénéficie qu’aux ménages connectés qui sont plutôt non pauvres. L’auto-ciblage fonctionne mieux pour le projet des travaux publics au Libéria ; la proportion de pauvres qui participent à ces travaux est élevée. En fait ce projet n’a aucune barrière à l’entrée, ce qui explique en partie ce bon résultat. Le ciblage du programme de modernisation agricole en RDC n’est pas très efficace non plus, les bénéficiaires n’étant souvent pas pauvres. L’impact en termes de réduction de la pauvreté est important dans les deux projets concernés par ce type d’analyse (modernisation agricole en RDC et travaux publics au Libéria), tout au moins pour les populations bénéficiaires. Le cas du projet de modernisation agricole en RDC montre néanmoins qu’il est important de prendre en compte d’autres facteurs pour obtenir un impact important, comme lever les contraintes liées au marché du crédit et à l’accès aux infrastructures
    Abstract: This work analyses the targeting performance and the impact evaluation of three projects. The first paper is about the water subsidies in the Republic of Congo. The study shows that the self-targeting scheme, using an Inverse Block Tariff structure has poor performance, indeed only those households who are connected can benefit from it, and they are usually non-poor. The self-targeting mechanism used in the Public Work program in Liberia works better since the proportion of poor involved in the program is high. This project has no entry barrier which partly explains the good result. The targeting performance of the Modernization of Agriculture project in the DRC is also poor, most of the beneficiaries being non-poor. The impact in terms of poverty reduction is important in both projects involved in this type of analysis (Modernization of Agriculture in the DRC and Public Work in Liberia), at least for the beneficiaries. The case of the DRC project, however, shows that it is important to lift some other constraints like access to credit and infrastructures in order to improve the impact of the program.
    Keywords: Pauvreté; Ciblage; Performance; Impact; Evaluation; Poverty; Targeting; Impact; Evaluation; Performance;
    JEL: I32 I38
    Date: 2013–02
  35. By: International Monetary Fund; World Bank
    Keywords: Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Stabilization Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets
    Date: 2013–05
  36. By: International Monetary Fund; World Bank
    Keywords: Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets
    Date: 2013–05
  37. By: Nihal Fernando; Walter Garvey
    Keywords: Water Supply and Sanitation - Water Supply and Systems Water Supply and Sanitation - Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions Water Resources - Water and Industry Water Supply and Sanitation - Town Water Supply and Sanitation Water Resources - Water Conservation
    Date: 2013–01
  38. By: Jean Luc Erero, Daniel Djauhari Pambudi and Lumengo Bonga Bonga
    Abstract: This paper analyses wage subsidies on lower-skilled formal workers in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). A multi-sectoral empirically-calibrated general equilibrium model capturing the economy-wide transactions between the formal and informal sectors is used to analyse one policy simulation in the DRC. The short and long run simulation in which the government provides wage subsidy to lower-skilled workers indicates that the government is able to significantly improve the deficiencies of the formal and informal households’ real disposable incomes. There is a general increase across formal and informal sectors in real household disposable incomes due to wage subsidy. The simulation results show that subsidy allocation narrowed the income gap between high and low income households, and between formal and informal sectors as well. The result seems somewhat insightful for wage policy simulation as the wage subsidy that targets lower-skilled formal workers increases real GDP from the expenditure side by 1.19% and 3.19% in the short and long run, respectively, from the baseline economy.
    Keywords: wage subsidy, informal sector, CGE model, Democratic Republic of Congo
    JEL: C68 D58 E24 E26 O17 R28
    Date: 2013
  39. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Rural Development Knowledge and Information Systems Industry - Agricultural Industry Social Protections and Labor - Labor Policies Crops and Crop Management Systems Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Regional Economic Development Rural Development Agriculture
    Date: 2013–06
  40. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Rural Development Knowledge and Information Systems Social Protections and Labor - Labor Policies Food and Beverage Industry Agriculture - Climate Change and Agriculture Crops and Crop Management Systems Rural Development Industry
    Date: 2013–06

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