nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2013‒06‒04
35 papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. What are the effects of input subsidy programs on equilibrium maize prices? Evidence from Malawi and Zambia By Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob; Mason, Nicole; Jayne, Thomas; Darko, Francis; Tembo, Solomon
  2. Impacts of Seed Subsidies on Poverty and Inequality among Smallholder Maize Growers in Zambia By Smale, Melinda; Mason, Nicole M.
  3. The Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Export Growth and Import Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa By Lanre Kassim
  4. Boosting Manufacturing Firms' Exports? The role of trade facilitation in Africa By Hoekstra, Ruth
  5. Analysing Job Creation Effects of Scaling Up Infrastructure Spending in South Africa By Hélène Maisonnave; Ramos Mabugu; Margaret Chitiga; Véronique Robichaud
  6. Unemployment insurance in South Africa: A descriptive overview of claimants and claims By Haroon Bhorat; Sumayya Goga; David Tseng
  7. Fertilizer Subsidies and Voting Patterns: Political Economy Dimensions of Input Subsidy Programs By Mason, Nicole M.; Jayne, T.S.; Walle, Nicolas van de
  8. Banking Competition in Africa: Sub-regional Comparative Studies By Stephen Hall
  9. Do Industrial Disputes Reduce Employment? Evidence from South Africa By Haroon Bhorat; Elne Jacobs; Carlene Van Der Westhuizen
  10. Capital Structure, Product Market Competition and Firm Performance: Evidence from South Africa By Samuel Fosu
  11. Constrained gazelles : high potentials in West Africa's informal economy By Grimm, Michael; Knorringa, Peter; Lay, Jann
  12. Determinants of Fresh Vegetable, Fresh Fruit and Peanut Products Expenditure in Urban Households in Ghana By Meng, Ting; Florkowski, Wojciech J.; Sarpong, Daniel; Resurreccion, Anna V. A.; Chinnan, Manjeet
  13. Are House Prices in South Africa Really Non-Stationary? Evidence from SPSM-Based Panel KSS Test with a Fourier Function By Tsangyao Chang; Tsung-pao Wu; Rangan Gupta
  14. Population Dynamics, Economic Growth and Energy Consumption in Kenya By Michieka, Nyakundi; Fletcher, Jerald
  15. Does the availability of secondary schools increase primary schooling? Empirical evidence from northern Senegal By Goensch, Iris
  16. What factors determine membership to farmer groups in Uganda? Evidence from the Uganda Census of Agriculture 2008 2008/9 By Adong, Annet; Mwaura, Francis; Okoboi, Geofrey
  17. The Role of Faith-Inspired Health Care Providers in Sub-Saharan Africa and Public-Private Partnerships: Strengthening the Evidence for Faith-inspired Health Engagement in Africa, Volume 1 By Wodon, Quentin
  18. Causes of health inequalities in Uganda: Evidence from the demographic and health surveys By Ssewanyana, Sarah; Kasirye, Ibrahim
  19. A Scoping Study of the Mobile Telecommunications Industry in Uganda By Shinyekwa, Isaac
  20. Housing and the Business Cycle in South Africa By Goodness C. Aye; Mehmet Balcilar; Adel Bosch; Rangan Gupta
  21. Evaluation of the Millennium Challenge Corporation's Electricity-Transmission and Distribution Line-Extension Activity in Tanzania: Baseline Report. By Duncan Chaplin; Arif Mamun; John Schurrer
  22. Evaluating Agricultural Productivity’s Impact on Food Security By Rada, Nicholas E.; Rosen, Stacey; Beckman, Jayson
  23. SADC Parliamentarians as Green Growth Leaders By Michael MacLennan
  24. Growing Green with Equity: Our Approach By Michael MacLennan
  25. Reviewing Uganda’s tourism sector for economic and social upgrading By Mwaura, Francis; Ssekitoleko, Solomon
  26. Considering Growth and Equity in SADC Today By Michael MacLennan
  27. From Research to Results: Greener Pathways for the SADC Region By Michael MacLennan
  28. Assessing Indicators of Currency Crisis in Ethiopia: Signals Approach By Megersa, kelbesa; Cassimon, Danny
  29. Tenure insecurity and investment in soil conservation. Evidence from Malawi By Stefania Lovo
  30. HIV/AIDS sero-prevalence and socioeconomic status: Evidence from Uganda By Kasirye, Ibrahim
  31. Engaging for results in civil service reforms : early lessons from a problem-driven engagement in Sierra Leone By Roseth, Benjamin; Srivastava, Vivek
  32. East African Regional Integration: Challenges in meeting the convergence criteria for monetary union: a survey By Kuteesa, Annette; Nampew
  33. Agricultural Diversification and Beekeeping: A Study of Rural Ethiopian Farmers By Josephson, Anna Leigh
  34. The Effectiveness of Aid in Improving Regulations: Empirical evidence and the drivers of change in Rwanda By Busse, Matthias; Hoekstra, Ruth; Osei, Robert
  35. Determinants of Internal Migration among Senegalese Youth By David SAHN; Catalina HERRERA

  1. By: Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob; Mason, Nicole; Jayne, Thomas; Darko, Francis; Tembo, Solomon
    Abstract: An important hypothesized benefit of large-scale input subsidy programs in Africa is that by raising maize production, the subsidies should put downward pressure on retail maize prices to the benefit of urban consumers and the rural poor who tend to be net food buyers. To inform debates related to this rationale for input subsidies, this study estimates the effects of fertilizer subsidies on retail maize prices in Malawi and Zambia using market or district-level panel data covering the 2000/01 to 2011/12 maize marketing years. Results indicate that roughly doubling the size of Malawi’s subsidy program (i.e., increasing the amount of subsidized fertilizer distributed to each district by 4,000 metric tons per year) reduces maize prices by 1.2% to 1.6% on average. In Zambia, roughly doubling the scale of the country’s subsidy program (i.e., increasing the amount of subsidized fertilizer distributed to each district by 1,000 metric tons per year) reduces maize prices by 1.8% to 2.4% on average. The results are robust across countries and model specifications, and indicate that the fertilizer subsidy programs in Malawi and Zambia have had a minimal effect on reducing retail maize prices.
    Keywords: Input subsidies, maize prices, Malawi, Zambia, sub-Saharan Africa, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, Production Economics, E65, G38, O13, O20, Q18,
    Date: 2013
  2. By: Smale, Melinda; Mason, Nicole M.
    Abstract: Spurred by current debates about beneficiary bias in the new generation of input subsidies implemented across Sub-Saharan Africa, we test explicitly the hypotheses that subsidies on hybrid seed change maize production, total household income, the poverty gap, and income inequality among smallholder maize growers in Zambia. The analysis contributes to the literature by measuring the effects of seed (as compared to fertilizer) subsidies, with a focus on indicators of household well-being rather than input demand. To address potential sources of endogeneity, we apply the fixed effects instrumental variables estimator and correlated random effects Tobit with the control function approach to a nationally representative panel of over 3,500 smallholder maize-growing households. Our findings demonstrate that in its initial years, hybrid maize seed delivered through the subsidy program enhanced the well-being of smallholder maize growers according to each indicator, but by small magnitudes.
    Keywords: hybrid maize seed, input subsidy programs, poverty, income inequality, Zambia, sub-Saharan Africa, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, Q12, Q18, H20, I38, N57,
    Date: 2013–05
  3. By: Lanre Kassim
    Abstract: This paper adopts panel data methodologies to investigate the impact of trade liberalisation on export growth and import growth across 28 Sub-Saharan African countries from 1981 to 2010. We find that trade liberalisation increases the growth of exports, however, imports grow faster by approximately two percentage points which gives a prima facie evidence that the trade balance in the region deteriorated in the post-liberalisation era. We also find that trade liberalisation significantly raises the price elasticity of demand for exports and imports, however, it does not significantly affect income elasticity of demand.
    Keywords: Trade liberalisation; Export growth; Import growth; Price and Income elasticities of demand; Sub-Saharan Africa
    JEL: C23 F13 F14 O55
    Date: 2013–05
  4. By: Hoekstra, Ruth
    Abstract: Facilitating trade is essential for Africa's economic development and further integration into the world economy, as business in Africa still suffers from behind-the-border barriers to trade. Using firm level data from the World Bank's Enterprise surveys covering more than 6,500 manufacturing firms, this paper empirically investigates the determinants of African firms' export decisions with a special focus on trade facilitation measures like the energy or telecommunications infrastructure. Overall, trade facilitation can increase African firms' probability to participate in international trade. Furthermore, lower trade barriers are associated with a higher propensity to export, i.e. stimulate the growth of exports.
    Keywords: Trade facilitation; Trade barriers; Africa; Firm-level data; Export probability
    JEL: F13 F15 O24
    Date: 2013
  5. By: Hélène Maisonnave; Ramos Mabugu; Margaret Chitiga; Véronique Robichaud
    Abstract: In a first for South Africa, we draw on literature on infrastructure productivity to model dynamic economywide employment impacts of infrastructure investment funded with different fiscal tools. According to the South African investment plan, the policy will affect the stock of infrastructure as well as the stock of capital of some private and public sectors. Increased government deficit financed infrastructure spending improves GDP and reduces unemployment. However, in the long term, the policy reduces investment and it is not sustainable for South Africa to let its deficit grow unabated. Increased investment spending financed by tax increases has contrasting implications on unemployment. In the long run, unemployment decreases for all types of workers under one of the scenarios. In the short run, only elementary occupation workers benefit from a decrease in unemployment; for the rest, unemployment rises. Findings have immediate policy implications in various policy modelling areas.
    Keywords: Employment, dynamic CGE model, infrastructure scale up, externalities, South Africa
    JEL: D58 D92 H54 H59
    Date: 2013
  6. By: Haroon Bhorat; Sumayya Goga; David Tseng (Development Policy Research Unit; Researcher)
    Abstract: This study, primarily descriptive in nature, is one of the first to examine the claiming behavior of unemployment benefit recipients within the South African Unemployment Insurance Fund (UIF) system. The design of the UIF system in South Africa is crucial in determining access to the system in terms of days of benefits, as well as determining benefit amounts. From the perspective that South Africa has one of the highest unemployment rates in the world, the UIF system is stringent in that the days of benefits are dependent on prior work history, though income replacement benefits are progressive with regard to previous income. The data shows that women, youth, poorer claimants and contract employees face the lowest potential claim days when claiming their benefits, while youth, poorer claimants and claimants with relatively short potential claim periods are eligible to claim a relatively larger proportion of their previous employment salaries as replacement benefits. Importantly, though, in the period between 2005 and 2011, those with the lowest potential claim periods were also subject, on average, to lower absolute benefits compared to their wealthier counterparts. We do find though that claimants represent a subsect of vulnerable potential contributors. Finally, we do not find evidence in this descriptive overview of moral hazard effects, though this would have to be investigated further through more thorough survival analysis techniques.
    Keywords: South Africa, unemployment, income distribution, Sub-Saharan Africa
    Date: 2013–04
  7. By: Mason, Nicole M.; Jayne, T.S.; Walle, Nicolas van de
    Abstract: Agricultural input subsidies often have implicit or explicit political economy objectives. Using panel data from Zambia, this article empirically tests whether election outcomes affect targeting of subsidized fertilizer and whether fertilizer subsidies win votes. Results suggest that the Zambian government allocated substantially more subsidized fertilizer to households in constituencies won by the ruling party in the last election, and more so the larger its margin of victory. However, past subsidized fertilizer allocations had no statistically significant effect on the share of votes won by the incumbent president. Rather, voters rewarded the incumbent for reductions in unemployment, poverty, and income inequality.
    Keywords: fertilizer subsidies, political economy, voting patterns, election outcomes, fractional response, Zambia, sub-Saharan Africa, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, Political Economy, P16, D7, H2, H4, Q18,
    Date: 2013–05
  8. By: Stephen Hall
    Abstract: This paper examines the extent of banking competition in African sub-regional markets. A dynamic version of the Panzar-Rosse model is adopted beside the static model to assess the overall extent of banking competition in each sub-regional banking market over the period 2002 to 2009. Consistent with other emerging economies, the results suggest that African banks generally demonstrate monopolistic competitive behaviour. Although the evidence suggests that the static Panzar-Rosse H-statistic is downward biased compared to the dynamic version, the competitive nature identified remains robust to alternative estimators.
    Keywords: Exchange Market Pressure; Currency Misalignment; Time-Varying-Coefficient
    JEL: G21 L10 L13 D40
    Date: 2013–05
  9. By: Haroon Bhorat; Elne Jacobs; Carlene Van Der Westhuizen (Development Policy Research Unit; Researcher)
    Abstract: Theory predicts that an increase in employment protection may reduce employment levels by acting as a tax on firms by constraining hiring and firing decisions. We use a unique administrative database of the country’s dispute resolution body—the Commission for Conciliation, Mediation and Arbitration (CCMA)—to create a nuanced and empirically based measure of employment protection for the labor market in South Africa. Drawing on district-level labor force data, we evaluate the empirical link between industrial disputes, a function of quantity and efficiency parameters of the CCMA, and employment levels in the domestic labor market. We assume a positive relationship between the number of industrial disputes and the level of employment protection in the labor market. We utilize an augmented Lazear model, where a two-stage, endogeneity-corrected, least-square model is used to predict the impact of differentially measured indices of industrial disputes on time and regional variation in employment levels in South Africa. Our estimates suggest that an increase in industrial disputes, measured both in the number of industrial dispute cases brought to the CCMA and in the efficiency levels of this body, decreases regional-level employment in the South African labor market.
    Keywords: Employment, South Africa, Economic Development
    Date: 2013–02
  10. By: Samuel Fosu
    Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between capital structure and firm performance, paying particular attention to the degree of industry competition. The paper applies a novel measure of competition, the Boone indicator, to the leverage performance relationship. Using panel data consisting of 257 South African firms over the period 1998 to 2009, this paper examines the effect of capital structure on firm performance and investigates the extent to which the relationship depends on the level of product market competition. The results suggest that financial leverage has a positive and significant effect on firm performance. It is also found that product market competition enhances the performance effect of leverage. The results are robust to alternative measures of competition and leverage.
    Keywords: Capital structure; Product market competition; Firm performance
    JEL: G32 L11 L25
    Date: 2013–05
  11. By: Grimm, Michael; Knorringa, Peter; Lay, Jann
    Abstract: The informal sector is typically characterized as being very heterogeneous and possibly composed of two clearly distinct segments, sometimes called the lower and upper tier. However, empirical evidence shows that even among lower tier entrepreneur's profitability can be quite high. The authors combine these findings and develop an innovative approach to identify what is called constrained gazelles, next to the well-known survivalists in the lower tier and growth-oriented top-performers in the upper tier. The sample of informal entrepreneurs in seven West-African countries allows linking the relative size of these three groups to the structural and macroeconomic environment in these countries.
    Keywords: Access to Finance,Economic Theory&Research,Microfinance,Financial Literacy,Environmental Economics&Policies
    Date: 2012–03–01
  12. By: Meng, Ting; Florkowski, Wojciech J.; Sarpong, Daniel; Resurreccion, Anna V. A.; Chinnan, Manjeet
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics,
    Date: 2013
  13. By: Tsangyao Chang (Department of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan); Tsung-pao Wu (Department of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)
    Abstract: This study applies the Sequential Panel Selection Method (SPSM) to investigate the time-series properties of provincial house prices for entire, large, medium, and small middle-segments of South Africa. Quarterly time-series data were collected from nine provinces in South Africa for different house-size categories over the period of 1978.Q1 to 2012.Q4. Whereas other panel-based unit root tests are joint tests of a unit root for all members of a panel and are incapable of determining the mix of integrated of order zero (I(0)) series and integrated of order one (I(1)) series in a panel setting, the SPSM proposed by Chortareas and Kapetanios (2009) can clearly identify how many and which series in the panel are stationary processes by classifying a whole panel into a group of stationary and non-stationary series. The empirical results from several panel-based, as well as standard pure time-series, unit root tests, indicate that house prices for the nine provinces studied here are either stationary or non-stationary. However, results from the SPSM using the panel-version of the Kapetanios et al. (KSS, 2003) test with a Fourier function unequivocally indicate that house prices are stationary for the 9 provinces under study. Our test results have important economic and policy implications for South Africa.
    Keywords: House Prices, Panel KSS Unit Root Test, Sequential Panel Selection Method, Non-Stationary
    JEL: C23 R21
    Date: 2013–04
  14. By: Michieka, Nyakundi; Fletcher, Jerald
    Abstract: Kenya is a small open economy that depends on energy for growth. Since independence in 1963, it has experienced tremendous urban and rural population growth, placing an increasing strain on energy resources and economic development. Therefore, in this paper the relationship between urban and rural populations, economic development, and energy use is studied. The empirical analysis uses a vector autoregression framework. The Granger Causality test results suggest unidirectional causality running from urban population to GDP. The vector error decomposition results imply that urban growth will continue to play a major role in energy consumption in Kenya.
    Keywords: Population, growth, energy, Kenya, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2013
  15. By: Goensch, Iris
    Abstract: When parents in Senegal decide upon primary school enrollment of their children, they might consider future returns to education. These future benefits in turn heavily depend on a child's prospects to attend secondary school. If private returns to primary schooling are very low and secondary schooling is costly but yields higher returns, the incentive to send children to primary school might be low for poor families. Based on a new household survey from urban and rural northern Senegal, this paper reassesses the puzzling results of Filmer (2007) according to which the availability of secondary schools does not affect primary school participation in Senegal. The empirical results confirm that secondary school availability does not play a role for the average child. Distance to the next secondary school matters only for the two highest wealth quintiles. Instead, the availability of primary schools and household wealth are important determinants of primary school enrollment. To shed further light on this surprising result, the paper discusses various reasons why the distance to the nearest secondary school might not be a very good proxy of a child's prospect of secondary school attendance. --
    Keywords: development,education,enrollment rates,logistic regression,West Africa
    JEL: C25 I21 O15
    Date: 2013
  16. By: Adong, Annet; Mwaura, Francis; Okoboi, Geofrey
    Abstract: While government of Uganda and its development partners are targeting farmer groups as the vehicle for agricultural development, there is limited empirical evidence on what drives membership to these groups. Using the Uganda Census of Agriculture 2008/9 data, this paper reveals low levels of membership both at individual and household levels with a marked regional dimension. The key policy variables found to influence participation in farmer group included education attainment, distance to extension service and quality of road infrastructure. Increasing membership to farmer groups requires government and its development partners to target more resources towards less educated farmers and those who live far from extension workers. The use of the local language in publicity materials is also important in ensuring participation among the illiterate and the less educated. Overall, there is a need for concerted efforts by all institutions supporting groups to ensure that existing groups have improved access to agricultural technologies and noticeable outcomes are achieved so as to attract more farmers.
    Keywords: Farmer group Membership, Decision Making, Uganda Census of Agriculture, Adong, EPRC, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Labor and Human Capital, Productivity Analysis,
    Date: 2012–05
  17. By: Wodon, Quentin
    Abstract: This role of faith-inspired health care providers in sub-saharan Africa and public-private partnerships is comprised of a three volume series on strengthening the evidence for faith inspired engagement in health in sub-Saharan Africa. An increasing level of interest in the role of faith in development has generated much debate and dialogue at the international and national levels over the last decade. Despite difficulties in communication and differences in cultures within such debates, there has been a continued reaffirmation of the potential benefits that faith-inspired communities can bring towards efforts to achieve the millennium development goals (MDGs), especially in the areas of health. This series focuses on assessing the role and market share of faith-inspired providers and on assessing the extent to which they are involved in and benefit from public-private partnerships. The purpose of this series is three HNP discussion papers is to round up various analytical perspectives and emerging research on faith engagement in health in Africa from a range of researchers and practitioners from the north as well as the south. The series is structured into three volumes: a first volume on the role and market share of faith-inspired providers and public-private partnerships, a second on satisfaction and the comparative nature of faith-inspired health provision, and the third on mapping of faith inspired provision and the extent to which faith-inspired providers reach to the poor.
    Keywords: access to services, advocacy efforts, advocacy purposes, antenatal care, beds, capacity building, choice of provider, civil society actors, CIVIL SOCIETY ORGANIZATIONS, clinics, communities, community care, community development, community health, contraceptives, contractual arrangements, delivery mechanisms, delivery of health care, Delivery of Health Services, delivery systems, Developing Countries, Development Policy, Development Strategies, doctors, drugs, educational services, employment, Equitable Access, Essential Medicines, family planning, formal care, Global Health, Global Health Council, government agencies, government support, HEALTH CARE, health care delivery, health care facilities, HEALTH CARE ORGANIZATIONS, HEALTH CARE PROVIDERS, health care provision, health care sector, health care services, Health Care System, health care systems, health centers, health coverage, Health Delivery, health facilities, health financing, health infrastructure, health initiatives, health needs, Health Organization, health planning, Health Policy, health posts, HEALTH PROGRAMS, health providers, health provision, Health Reform, Health Research, health sector, health service, health service delivery, health service providers, health service provision, health services, health strategies, health system, HEALTH SYSTEMS, Health-sector, healthcare providers, HIV, HIV/AIDS, homes, hospital beds, hospital care, hospital services, hospitals, Household Level, household surveys, households, HR, Human Development, Human Resources, illness, illnesses, important policy, income, Income Countries, individual health, Information Systems, integration, intervention, local community, localities, Low Income, low-income populations, management of Health, medical care, medical facilities, medical goods, medical systems, Medicines, Millennium Development Goals, Ministries of Health, Ministry of Health, mission hospital, mobile clinics, modern contraception, modern contraceptive methods, Multilateral Organizations, national governments, national health, national health service, national health services, national health systems, national level, national levels, Newborn, Newborn Health, Non-governmental Organizations, Nongovernmental Organizations, nurses, Nutrition, orphans, outpatient care, pandemic, patient, patient satisfaction, patients, personal relationships, Pharmaceutical Sector, pharmaceutical services, pharmacies, policy discussions, policy level, practitioners, primary care, PRIMARY HEALTH CARE, private doctors, private hospitals, private sector, providers of health care, providers of health services, provision of health care, provision of health services, Public Health, public health system, public providers, PUBLIC SECTOR, quality of services, quality services, religious practices, REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH, REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH PROGRAMS, reproductive health services, respect, rural areas, rural health care, shops, Social Development, Social Science, Social Services, Supply Systems, technical assistance, traditional healers, traditional practices, UNFPA, Universal Access, urban development, work environment, workforce, World Health Organization
    Date: 2012–11–01
  18. By: Ssewanyana, Sarah; Kasirye, Ibrahim
    Abstract: Despite sustained macroeconomic growth and impressive income poverty reduction in Uganda, the country’s total child nutrition status remains poor. More so, wide within country disparities in stunting and underweight rates exist across the country. This study exploredthe determinants of child nutrition status and in Uganda using three rounds of the Uganda demographic and health surveys undertaken during 1995–2006.The surveys are nationally representative and capture anthropometric indicators for children aged below 5 years. The study investigated the determinants of health inequalities focusing on child health status through a combination of decomposition and regression analysis. Our results show that household welfare status remains a key determinant of child health status and inequalities in health. Furthermore, the results show that individual maternal education matters more in enhancing child health than does community knowledge about health.
    Keywords: Health, EPRC, Ssewanyana, Poverty reduction, Child nutrition, maternal education, welfare, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Health Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2012
  19. By: Shinyekwa, Isaac
    Abstract: The paper aims at mapping out the Mobile Telecommunications Industry in Uganda with a view to identify areas for further research in a systematic and more detailed way. The economic and social upgrading/downgrading conceptual framework to guide the Capturing the Gains research agenda was used in this process. The paper briefly presents the mobile phone domains, emphasising the relevant parts for Uganda, which include; software development, sales and marketing, mobile service provision and end use developmental elements. The paper gives highlights of the growth and explosion of the mobile telecommunications sector in the last two decades underpinning the drivers of this growth, which include deregulation, liberalisation, technology advancement, the growing population and Uganda’s strategic hinterland location. It is demonstrated that Mobile-phone Network Operators (MNOs) in Uganda are owned by companies with strong global value chains, which spread continentally to other African countries, Arab countries and in the case of Orange, France. The MNOs include MTN, UTL, Warid, Airtel and Orange. To provide insights into potential areas for further research on economic and social upgrading, the paper looks at outsourcing, infrastructure and the developmental aspects of mobile phones. The paper outlines areas for further research, which include money transfer, health, agriculture and outsourcing of services by MNOs. Finally, given that outsourcing of some of the services by MNOs is salient, conditions of work in MNOs and the outsourced companies is critical.
    Keywords: Mobile service, Mobile phones, Shinyekwa, EPRC, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Demand and Price Analysis, Industrial Organization, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Public Economics, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,
    Date: 2012–06
  20. By: Goodness C. Aye (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Mehmet Balcilar (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, North Cyprus,via Mersin 10, Turkey); Adel Bosch (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)
    Abstract: This paper examines the housing-output growth nexus in South Africa by accounting for the time variation in the causal link with a bootstrapped rolling Granger non-causality test. We use quarterly data on real gross domestic product, real house prices, real gross fixed capital formation and number of building plans passed. Our data span 1971Q2-2012Q2. Using full sample bootstrap Granger causality tests, we find a uni-directional causality from output to number of building plans passed; a uni-directional causality from real house price to output and a bi-directional causal link between residential investment and output. However, using parameter stability tests, we show that estimated VARs are unstable, thus full-sample Granger causality inference may be invalid. Hence, we use a bootstrap rolling window estimation to evaluate Granger causality between the housing variables and the growth rate. In general, we find that the causality from housing to output and, vice versa, differ across different sample periods due to structural changes. Specifically speaking, house price is found to have the strongest causal relationship with output compared to residential investment and number of building plans passed, with real house price showing predictive ability in all but one downward phase of the business cycle during this period.
    Keywords: House price, residential investment, number of building plans, GDP, bootstrap, time varying causality
    JEL: C32 E32 R31
    Date: 2013–05
  21. By: Duncan Chaplin; Arif Mamun; John Schurrer
    Abstract: This report presents findings from an analysis of baseline data collected as the first step in an impact evaluation of the Millennium Challenge Corporation’s energy sector project in Tanzania. The evaluation will use rigorous methods to estimate impacts of two project components: (1) an activity to provide new transmission and distribution lines to more than 300 communities in seven regions of Tanzania, and (2) a financing scheme initiative to provide low-cost connections to about 5,800 households in 29 of these communities.
    Keywords: MCC, Electricity Transmission, Distribution Line Extension, Tanzania
    JEL: F Z
    Date: 2012–11–20
  22. By: Rada, Nicholas E.; Rosen, Stacey; Beckman, Jayson
    Abstract: Global agriculture must significantly increase production to meet by mid-century the demands for food, feed, and fiber posed by the world’s enlarging population. An important requirement to meeting those demands is a lifting of agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) growth rates. The present analysis evaluates the impact global agricultural TFP growth may have on food security in developing countries over the next decade. The results present an encouraging picture of developing countries’ food security status, especially in Asia and Africa. It finds that a continuation of last decade’s agricultural performance significantly accelerates food security reductions, highlighting the important role agricultural productivity plays in a country’s food security strategy. It also finds that TFP growth alleviates food insecurity primarily through a balanced approach between production and trade in Asia and Latin America but gains in Africa appear heavily tilted toward imports. There are, however, limitations to our approach, such as possible overestimation of import capacity in some countries.
    Keywords: agricultural productivity growth, TFP, GTAP, value-added, gross output, food security, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, Productivity Analysis,
    Date: 2013
  23. By: Michael MacLennan (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: The Green Guide?s emphasis on ?going green with equity? is not simply a new policy option but, rather, critical to regional survival. Defined largely by mineral-dependent growth, a number of challenges and lessons relating to the inclusiveness of the recent Southern African Development Community?s (SADC) regional growth have emerged, see One Pager No. 195, Challenges to the status quo have emerged from project research findings to date related to? (?)
    Keywords: SADC Parliamentarians as Green Growth Leaders
    Date: 2013–05
  24. By: Michael MacLennan (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: The real-time opportunities for sustainable inclusive green growth within the Southern African Development Community (SADC) are being explored as part of the development of a Green Guide for SADC parliamentarians. The collaborative partnership between the Rural and Sustainable Development team at the UNDP International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC-IG) and the SADC Parliamentary Forum, which has been fully supported by the Climate Development Knowledge Network (CDKN), dates back to July 2011. The Green Guide, the primary output of this collaboration, will outline the compelling case for further implementation of contextappropriate inclusive green growth policies to decision-makers from a variety of departments and ministries, with the aim of encouraging intersectoral coordination, policy coherence and programme convergence. (?)
    Keywords: Growing Green with Equity: Our Approach
    Date: 2013–05
  25. By: Mwaura, Francis; Ssekitoleko, Solomon
    Abstract: In tourism the use of sector’s employment opportunities and contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) as a measure of its performance may be deceptive as the sector is prone to foreigners domination and has a lot of ‘leakages’. Global production network (GPN) analysis is becoming popular analytical frameworks for understanding industries like tourism. In this paper, we review literature on global production networks, with a focus on the tourism sector in Uganda. The main objective of the study is to establish information availability and point out existing information gaps in understanding Uganda’s participation in the tourism GPN with respect to economic and social upgrading/downgrading. It was observed that the tourism sector remains an important avenue for economic growth and poverty reduction, and has experienced growth in investment along the value chain, attractiveness and operational complexity. Information gaps were observed on levels of functional integration among tourism actors, impacts of tourism on employment and poverty reduction among gender and social classes and factors that will affect trajectory for social and economic upgrading/downgrading for the tourism actors in Uganda.
    Keywords: GPD, EPRC, Mwaura, GPN, PRODUCTION NETWORKS, Agribusiness, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Environmental Economics and Policy, Industrial Organization, Institutional and Behavioral Economics,
    Date: 2012
  26. By: Michael MacLennan (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: The Green Guide project, see One Pager No. 194, funded by the Climate Development Knowledge Network, provides an important opportunity to carry out action-oriented research and to explore some of the innately complex political issues which arise in the process of re-calibrating economies for greener and more inclusive growth. The trajectory of growth within the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region presents potential and real opportunities for the guide to provide insight on sustainable and equitable growth. The lessons learned from the project could potentially also be applicable to a broader cross-section of other developing countries. (?)
    Keywords: Considering Growth and Equity in SADC Today
    Date: 2013–05
  27. By: Michael MacLennan (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: The prevalence of highly mono-cultural economies within the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region (over half the countries in the region have fewer than eight sectors accounting for 75 per cent of exports), primarily agrarian or dependent on mineral resources, shaped the selection of five (5) priority policy intersections which define the region?s social, environmental and economic development. (?)
    Keywords: From Research to Results: Greener Pathways for the SADC Region
    Date: 2013–05
  28. By: Megersa, kelbesa; Cassimon, Danny
    Abstract: Currency crises, generally defined as rapid depreciation of a local currency or loss of foreign exchange reserves, are common incidents in modern monetary systems. Due to their repeated occurrence and severity, they have earned wide coverage by both theoretical and empirical literature. However, unlike advanced and emerging economies, currency crises in low-income countries have not received due attention. This paper uses the signals approach developed by Kaminsky et al. (1998) and assesses currency crisis in Ethiopia over the time frame January 1970 to December 2008. Using the Exchange Market Pressure Index (EMPI), we identify three currency crisis episodes, Oct. 1992 - Sep. 1993; Mar. – Jul. 1999 and Oct. – Dec. 2008. This timing shows the importance of both local and international dynamics in determining currency crises. The crisis periods coincide with the liberalization following the fall of Ethiopian socialism, the Ethio-Eritrean border conflict, and the zenith of the global financial crisis, respectively. More macro-economic indicators picked up the first crisis in a 24 month signalling window, compared to the latter two. Three categories of indicators were used: current account, capital account and domestic financial sector. None of the capital account indicators were significant based on the noise-to-signal ratio rule. One possible explanation for this might be the weak integration of the Ethiopian economy with global capital markets.
    Keywords: Currency crisis, financial crisis, early warning systems, signals approach, Ethiopia
    JEL: E5 E6 G2 O1 O11
    Date: 2013–05–22
  29. By: Stefania Lovo
    Abstract: Tenure insecurity can have important consequences for the conservation of natural resources. Land titling is often considered a solution to the problem of weak investment incentives under tenure insecurity. Using a large plot-level dataset from Malawi, this paper shows that land titling alone might not induce greater investment in soil conservation under the existing customary inheritance systems and that a reform of the rental market is in order. The paper focuses on two main sources of tenure insecurity: informal short-term tenancy contracts and customary gender-biased inheritance practices. Both sources of insecurity matter for soil conservation investments and are likely to be unaffected by the introduction of land titling alone. Further evidence suggests that soil erosion can have adverse distributional effects and that tenure insecurity accounts for one-third of the long-term loss in land productivity.
    Date: 2013–05
  30. By: Kasirye, Ibrahim
    Abstract: Although Uganda reported large reductions in HIV/AIDS prevalence during the 1990s, recent evidence suggests that country’s rate of new HIV infections is on the rise. This study explores the factors that are correlated with sexual behavior and the risk of HIV infection using a unique dataset of 19,500 individuals from the 2011 Uganda AIDS Indicator Survey. This survey tested individuals 15-49 years of age for sexually transmitted infections, including the HIV virus. The same survey also collected background information for all tested individuals. This information is similar to what is collected in a typical demographic and health survey (DHS). We estimate probit models for the correlates of risky sexual behaviors that can lead to HIV infection such as: having concurrent sexual partners, no-condom use, and alcohol use during sex. In addition, we examine correlates of having been tested for HIV prior to the survey. Also, we estimate models for correlates of the risk of testing HIV positive as well as the self-assessed risks of contracting HIV. We find that higher education attainment and access to health facilities are important for adopting safe sexual behaviors as well as the reducing the risk of testing HIV positive. Among HIV infected couples, we find that women have a higher rate of discordance which is at odds with the low rates of self-reported extra marital sexual behavior.
    Keywords: Sexual behaviour, Kasirye, EPRC, STDs, Health, Health Economics and Policy, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Risk and Uncertainty,
    Date: 2012
  31. By: Roseth, Benjamin; Srivastava, Vivek
    Abstract: Two related propositions have been central in the recent debates on public sector reforms. The first of these is that the appropriate measure of institutional strength is the ability of public sector management systems to deliver ("functionality") rather than the institutional"form"or what these institutions look like. This is a central idea in the World Bank's Public Sector Management (PSM) Approach 2011-2020. Second, and consistent with this, is the recognition that the process of engagement matters in the sense that how problems, solutions, and reform approaches are identified matters at least as much as what the solution is. This suggests that development institutions should focus on bringing a broad range of stakeholders together and facilitate a process of collective problem and solution identification. Recent contributions to the literature describe a"Problem-Driven Iterative Adaptation"approach as a means of putting this idea into practice. While both of these propositions have considerable intellectual and intuitive appeal, they are based on an inductive logic and neither is currently backed with a large body of robust evidence. This paper contributes to this literature by documenting the experience of a civil service reform project -- the World Bank-financed Sierra Leone Pay and Performance Project -- the objective of which is to improve the performance of the civil service in Sierra Leone by targeting a narrowly defined set of critical reforms. The paper concludes that intensive, client-led engagement together with use of a results-based lending instrument provide a promising way forward on a difficult reform agenda.
    Keywords: Banks&Banking Reform,Public Sector Corruption&Anticorruption Measures,Government Diagnostic Capacity Building,E-Business,Access to Finance
    Date: 2013–05–01
  32. By: Kuteesa, Annette; Nampew
    Abstract: The realization of a successful monetary union among EAC partner states depends upon a sufficient degree of convergence of partners economies to established criteria. Gathering but scattered research has begun assessing the various benchmarks for this characteristic. This work integrates and synthesizes the various findings of literature with the view of providing a general perspective on how far the partner states have reached in meeting the macroeconomic convergence criteria and whether they have met the precondition for ascending the union. The review is done with anticipation of uncovering the challenges countries are encountering in aligning the economies to set criteria and what possible policy strategies exist to overcome these problems. Findings reveal that there has been very limited convergence. Generally countries remain behind the staged indictors. Progress to the monetary union is challenged by the highly demanding criteria, lack of exchange rate mechanism, obstacles to the common market, multiple memberships and many more. While countries might have the option of revising the benchmarks, efforts to strengthen national economic growth, build regional capacities, harmonize policies related to the monetary union, and correct constraints in the common market will enhance deeper integration and contribute greatly to macro-economic convergence.
    Keywords: EAC partner states, macroeconomic convergence, challenges, policies, EPRC, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Demand and Price Analysis, Industrial Organization, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Relations/Trade, Labor and Human Capital, Marketing, Production Economics,
    Date: 2012–06
  33. By: Josephson, Anna Leigh
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries,
    Date: 2013–05
  34. By: Busse, Matthias (Ruhr-University Bochum, Faculty of Management and Economics, Germany); Hoekstra, Ruth (Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI), Germany); Osei, Robert (Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER), Ghana)
    Abstract: The paper assesses the impact of foreign aid on the change in the quality of regulations, and identifies the drivers of this change in a case study on Rwanda. In the empirical analysis, we find that highly targeted Aid for Business has a significantly positive impact on regulations across developing countries, but we do not find any effects for overall aid or aid directed at broad governance areas. In the country case study, we depart from Rwanda's excellent regulatory performance to explain how aid is effective in changing the regulatory environment, driven by the country’s strong political leadership and its singular institutional history.
    Keywords: Foreign aid; Governance; Business regulations; Rwanda
    JEL: F35 G28 L51 O55
    Date: 2013
  35. By: David SAHN; Catalina HERRERA
    Abstract: We analyze the socio-economic determinants of youth decision to internally migrate in Senegal. Young people undertake mostly rural-to-rural and urban-to-urban migrations and over half of them are temporary migrants. Using multinomial logit models, we estimate the role of household and community characteristics during childhood in later youth migration decisions. We find that these determinants are heterogeneous by gender and destination. The higher the fathers' education the more (less) likely are their daughters to move to urban (rural) areas. Young individuals, who spend their childhood in better off households, are more likely to move to urban areas. Also, the presence of younger siblings increases the propensity of moving to rural areas. Access to primary schools during childhood decreases the likelihood of migrating to urban areas for both men and women.
    Keywords: Internal migration, senegal, youth, multinomial logit
    Date: 2013

This nep-afr issue is ©2013 by Quentin Wodon. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.