nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2013‒05‒11
35 papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Measuring government performance in public opinion surveys in Africa: Towards experiments? By Bratton, Michael
  2. Africa-Brazil co-operation in social protection: Drivers, lessons and shifts in the engagement of the Brazilian Ministry of Social Development By Leite, Iara Costa; Suyama, Bianca; Pomeroy, Melissa
  3. Who.s the alien?: Xenophobia in post-apartheid South Africa By Duponchel, Marguerite
  4. Evaluating antipoverty transfer programmes in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa: Better policies? Better politics? By Barrientos, Armando; Villa, Juan M.
  5. Policing reforms and economic development in African states: Understanding the linkages: empowering change By Marenin, Otwin
  6. Trade policies and agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa: Comparative analysis in a Computable General Equilibrium framework. Politiques commerciales et agriculture en Afrique Sub-Saharienne : Analyse comparative en Equilibre Général Calculable: Analyse comparative en Equilibre Général Calculable. By Douillet, Mathilde
  7. Different dreams, same bed : collecting, using, and interpreting employment statistics in Sub-Saharan Africa -- the case of Uganda By Fox, Louise; Pimhidzai, Obert
  8. Check-in, departure and arrival times: Air cargo in Southern Africa? By Bianka Dettmer; Andreas Freytag; Peter Draper
  9. Growth of African economies: Productivity, policy syndromes, and the importance of institutions By Fosu, Augustin Kwasi
  10. Evaluating the Prospects of Benefit Sharing Schemes in Protecting Mountain Gorillas in Central Africa By Mukanjari, Samson; Muchapondwa, Edwin; Zikhali, Precious; Bednar-Friedl, Birgit
  11. Infrastructure and climate change: Impacts and adaptations for the Zambezi River Valley By Chinowsky, Paul S.; Schweikert, Amy E.; Strzepek, Niko L.; Strzepek, Kenneth
  12. The political economy of food price: The case of Ethiopia By Admassie, Assefa
  13. The Economics of Climate Change and Science of Global Warming Debate:African Perspectives By Nwaobi, Godwin
  14. Foreign aid and decentralization: Policies for autonomy and programming for responsiveness By Dickovick, J. Tyler
  15. Implementing REDD through Community-Based Forest Management: Lessons from Tanzania By Robinson, Elizabeth J.Z.; Albers, H.J.; Meshack, Charles; Lokina, Razack B.
  16. The Dynamics of Electric Cookstove Adoption: Panel Data Evidence from Ethiopia By Alem, Yonas; Hassen, Sied; Kohlin, Gunnar
  17. The Valuation of Biodiversity Conservation by the South African Khomani San “Bushmen” Community By Dikgang, Johane; Muchapondwa, Edwin
  18. The Distributive Effect and Food Security Implications of Biofuels Investment in Ethiopia: A CGE Analysis By Gebreegziabher, Zenebe; Mekonnen, Alemu; Ferede, Tadele; Guta, Fantu; Levin, Jörgen; Köhlin, Gunnar; Alemu, Tekie; Bohlin, Lars
  19. Intra-household efficiency: An experimental study from Ethiopia By Kebede, Bereket; Tarazona, Marcela; Munro, Alistair; Verschoor, Arjan
  20. The political economy of food price policy in Nigeria By Olomola, Aderibigbe S.
  21. Impact of climate change on crops, irrigation and hydropower in the Zambezi River Basin By Fant, Charles; Gebretsadik, Yohannes; Strzepek, Kenneth
  22. Assessing the risk of cyclone-induced storm surge and sea level rise in Mozambique By Neumann, James E.; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Ravela, Sai; Ludwig, Lindsay C.; Verly, Caroleen
  23. An Innovation Learning Platform for Drought Tolerant Maize in Malawi: Lessons Learned and the Way Forward By Kassie, Girma Tesfahun; Erenstein, Olaf; Mwangi, Wilfred; Setimela, Peter S.; Langyintuo, Augustine S.; Kaonga, K.K.
  24. The Making of Middle Class in Africa: Evidence from DHS Data By Ncube, Mthuli; Shimeles, Abebe
  25. Dealing with the 2007/08 global food price crisis: The political economy of food price policy in Malawi By Chirwa, Ephraim; Chinsinga, Blessings
  26. Contract Duration under Incomplete Land Ownership Rights: Empirical Evidence from Rural Ethiopia By Beyene, Abebe D.; Bezabih, Mintewab; Gebreegziabher, Zenebe
  27. The political economy of food price policy: The case of Kenya By Nzuma, Jonathan Makau
  28. Community Controlled Forests, Carbon Sequestration and REDD+: Some Evidence from Ethiopia By Beyene, Abebe D.; Bluffstone, Randall; Mekonnen, Alemu
  29. Fiscal Space and Public Spending on Children in Burkina Faso By John Cockburn; Hélène Maisonnave; Véronique Robichaud; Luca Tiberti
  30. The political economy of food price policy: Country case study of Mozambique By Nhate, Virgulino; Massingarela, Claudio; Salvucci, Vincenzo
  31. Determinants of Adoption and Spatial Diversity of Wheat Varieties on Household Farms in Turkey By Negassa, Asfaw; Hellin, Jonathan; Shiferaw, Bekele A.
  32. Climate uncertainty and economic development: Evaluating the case of Mozambique to 2050 By Arndt, Channing; Thurlow, James
  33. Thanks but No Thanks: A New Policy to Avoid Land Conflict By Dufwenberg, Martin; Köhlin, Gunnar; Martinsson, Peter; Medhin, Haileselassie
  34. Jobs and welfare in Mozambique By Jones, Sam; Tarp, Finn
  35. Ties that bind: The kin system as a mechanism of income-hiding between spouses in rural Ghana By Castilla, Carolina

  1. By: Bratton, Michael
    Abstract: In examining the study of government performance, this paper asks whether field experiments can improve the explanatory precision of results generated by public opinion surveys. Survey research on basic health and education services sub-Saharan Africa sho
    Keywords: government performance, surveys, experiments, health, education, Africa
    Date: 2013
  2. By: Leite, Iara Costa; Suyama, Bianca; Pomeroy, Melissa
    Abstract: The Brazilian Ministry of Social Development.s co-operation with sub-Saharan Africa has shifted from an initial engagement in cash transfers to a recent engagement in food and nutritional security. This paper aims at understanding the main drivers for suc
    Keywords: South-South development co-operation, social protection, food and nutritional security, Brazil, sub-Saharan Africa
    Date: 2013
  3. By: Duponchel, Marguerite
    Abstract: In May 2008, South Africa became the theatre of widespread violent attacks against undesirable .outsiders.. Over 60 were killed, hundreds wounded, and tens of thousands displaced. This analysis aims at identifying the characteristics of the victims in an
    Keywords: xenophobia, violence, South Africa
    Date: 2013
  4. By: Barrientos, Armando; Villa, Juan M.
    Abstract: The paper provides a comparative analysis of the incidence of evaluation methods in antipoverty transfer programmes in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa. The paper identifies two broad explanations for the incidence of evaluation in antipoverty transfe
    Keywords: impact evaluation, poverty, antipoverty transfers, Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa
    Date: 2013
  5. By: Marenin, Otwin
    Abstract: The notion that economic development in African states requires minimal levels of security has become widely accepted in the international development community. Reforming non-functioning policing systems is an important step toward achieving security, ye
    Keywords: Africa, policing, economic development, policing reforms
    Date: 2013
  6. By: Douillet, Mathilde
    Abstract: This dissertation aims at contributing to the comparative analysis of trade and agricultural policies in Sub-Saharan Africa from a policy coherence for development point of view. The framework is established by reviewing the policies historically implemented in the region, linking them to the history of economic thought. The debates on the role of agriculture for development and on the use of public intervention and trade policies to promote development strategies are explored justifying the need to prioritize potential policy reforms based on their impacts on agriculture and economic growth, and the choice of computable general equilibrium modeling. Chapter I highlights the main challenges and opportunities for Sub-Saharan African agricultural trade stemming from the changes in the global agricultural markets and the trade agreements currently negotiated. Chapter II and III show that global computable general equilibrium provides a useful tool to compare regional integration to multilateral integration, in terms of their impacts on gross domestic product, welfare and sectoral growth distribution. Chapter III is a case study on Malawi. The global model is linked to a national model including household data to compare the distributional impacts of trade policies and agricultural policies on poverty. This dissertation highlights that regional integration could bring substantial economic gains to Sub-Saharan Africa, together with more diversified and more processed agricultural exports than multilateral integration. Not all policy reform is found to equally reduce the poverty of the small-scale farmers, the majority of the poors and vulnerable in Sub-Saharan Africa.
    Abstract: Cette thèse procède à une analyse comparative des politiques commerciales et agricoles en Afrique sub-saharienne, en se concentrant sur la cohérence des politiques pour le développement. Elle examine les politiques mises en œuvre historiquement dans la région, en les reliant à l'histoire de la pensée économique, et explore les débats sur le rôle de l'agriculture, des politiques commerciales et du recours à l'intervention publique dans les stratégies de développement. Le chapitre I analyse les principaux défis et opportunités pour le commerce agricole de l'Afrique sub-saharienne au vu de l'évolution des marchés agricoles mondiaux et des accords commerciaux en cours de négociation. Les chapitres II et III montrent l'utilité des modèles d'équilibre général calculable mondial pour comparer intégration régionale et intégration multilatérale, en considérant l' impact de ces stratégies sur le produit intérieur brut, le bien-être et la distribution sectorielle de la croissance. Le chapitre III est une étude de cas sur le Malawi. Le modèle global y est lié à un modèle national et à des enquêtes ménages, ce qui permet de comparer les effets distributifs des politiques commerciales et des politiques agricoles sur la pauvreté. Cette thèse démontre que l'intégration régionale peut apporter des gains économiques substantiels à l'Afrique sub-saharienne et promouvoir des exportations agricoles plus diversifiées et à des stades de transformation plus avancés que l'intégration multilatérale ; et que seules certaines réformes politiques permettent de réduire la pauvreté des petits agriculteurs, qui constituent la majorité des personnes pauvres et vulnérables en Afrique sub-saharienne.
    Keywords: Politique agricole, Intégration régionale, Afrique, pauvreté, Politique commerciale, Préférences commerciales, Malawi, Equilibre général calculable;
    Date: 2012–06
  7. By: Fox, Louise; Pimhidzai, Obert
    Abstract: Employment and earnings statistics are the key link between the size and structure of economic growth and the welfare of households, which is the ultimate goal of development policy, so it is important to monitor employment outcomes consistently. A cursory review of employment data for low-income Sub-Saharan African countries shows both large gaps and improbable variation within countries over time and among countries, suggesting that low quality data are routinely reported by national statistics offices. Unfortunately, policies are formed and projects developed and implemented on the basis of these statistics. Therefore, errors of measurement could be having profound implications on the strategic priorities and policies of a country. This paper explains the improbable results observed by using data from Uganda, where the labor module contains variation both within and across surveys, to show the sensitivity of employment outcomes to survey methodology. It finds that estimates of employment outcomes are unreliable if the questionnaire did not use screening questions, as labor force participation will be underestimated. Likewise, surveys that use a seven-day recall period underestimate or potentially misrepresent employment outcomes, owing to seasonality and multiple jobs. Common multivariate analysis applied on household survey data will be affected, as the errors in measurement in the dependent and independent variables will be correlated. Corrections to reduce measurement bias in existing data are tested with the survey data; none are found to be completely satisfactory. The paper concludes that there is a knowledge gap about employment outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa that will continue unless collection techniques improve.
    Keywords: Labor Markets,Labor Policies,Educational Sciences,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis,Tertiary Education
    Date: 2013–05–01
  8. By: Bianka Dettmer (Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena); Andreas Freytag (School of Economics and Business Administration, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena); Peter Draper (South African Institute of International Affairs)
    Abstract: In this paper we develop a methodology which is based on two important criteria - sensitivity in delivery time and value-to-weight ratio - to classify products relevant for air transport. Detailed trade data by mode of transport are used to check the loading of an average airplane between South Africa and the European Union. The product classification is applied to evaluate the potential for air cargo transport in Southern Africa. We find that especially export of products with high and medium air cargo relevance grew much faster than exports of bulky goods and non air cargo products. South Africa's most prominent export products to industrialized countries consist of diamonds, gold and platinum (HS71) which, however, are so precious that they tend to be transported in the hand baggage of a business or security person, because they leave the loading weight of an average airplane almost unaffected. When correcting South Africa's trade for these 'invisible outliers' in the loading freight we find that South Africa exports a much larger share of products with high air cargo relevance to its SADC partners than to industrialized countries. The results indicate that air cargo seems to be valuable option to overcome trade barriers associated with poor land transport infrastructure and corruption.
    Keywords: Trade cost, time sensitivity, air transport, intra-African trade
    JEL: F10 F14 F15 L93
    Date: 2013–04–24
  9. By: Fosu, Augustin Kwasi
    Abstract: Recent evidence from an exhaustive political economy study of growth of African economies.the growth project of the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) suggests that .policy syndromes. have substantially contributed to the generally poor growth in
    Keywords: growth of African economies, productivity, policy syndromes, institutions
    Date: 2013
  10. By: Mukanjari, Samson; Muchapondwa, Edwin; Zikhali, Precious; Bednar-Friedl, Birgit
    Abstract: Presently, the mountain gorilla in Rwanda, Uganda, and the Democratic Republic of Congo is endangered mainly by poaching and habitat loss. This paper sets out to investigate the possible resolution of poaching involving the local community by using benefit sharing schemes with local communities. Using a bioeconomic model, the paper demonstrates that the current revenue sharing scheme yields suboptimal conservation outcomes. It is shown, however, that a performance-linked benefit sharing scheme in which the Park Agency makes payment to the local community based on the growth of the gorilla stock can achieve socially optimal conservation. This scheme renders unnecessary poaching effort by the local community. Therefore, it becomes unnecessary to impose poaching fines and anti-poaching enforcement on the local community. Given the huge financial outlay requirements for the ideal benefit sharing scheme, the Park Agencies in Central Africa could reap more financial benefits for use in conservation if they employ an oligopolistic pricing strategy for gorilla tourism.
    Keywords: benefit sharing, bioeconomic model, conservation, mountain gorilla, performance payment
    Date: 2012–11–16
  11. By: Chinowsky, Paul S.; Schweikert, Amy E.; Strzepek, Niko L.; Strzepek, Kenneth
    Abstract: The African Development Bank has called for US$40 billion per year over the coming decades to be provided to African countries to address development issues directly related to climate change. The current study addresses a key component of these issues, t
    Keywords: climate change, roads, infrastructure, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia
    Date: 2013
  12. By: Admassie, Assefa
    Abstract: Food prices increased significantly in 2007.08 in Ethiopia due to several supply- and demand-side factors. The Ethiopian government released emergency food grain reserves, imported and distributed wheat at subsidized price, banned the export of staple cer
    Keywords: agriculture, political economy, food price, Ethiopia
    Date: 2013
  13. By: Nwaobi, Godwin
    Abstract: As at today, it is an indisputable fact that the climate is changing and there is a scientific consensus that the world is becoming a warmer place principally attributable to human activities. Regrettably, the physical impacts of future climate change on humans and the environment will include increasing stresses on and even collapses of ecosystems, biodiversity loss, changing timing of growing seasons, coastal erosion, and ocean acidification as well as shifting ranges for pests and diseases. Consequently, development goals are threatened by climate change with heaviest impacts on poor countries and poor people. In particular, African countries will bear the brunt of effects of climate change, even as they strive to overcome poverty and advance economic growth. For these countries, climate change threatens to deepen vulnerabilities, erode hard-won gains and seriously undermine prospects for development. Using environmental impact and sustainability applied general equilibrium model, this paper argues that climate change will negatively affect agricultural productivity in Africa. Although the obligations to mitigate and adapt to climate change (and to go green) may be costly, it can actually represent an opportunity for African economies. As latecomers, Africa has indeed an opportunity to be at the forefront of the green revolution by implementing green development strategies based on low energy –intensity, low-carbon emissions and clean technologies.
    Keywords: Climate Change, Global Warming, Sustainable Development, Carbon Dioxide, Emissions, Methane, Nitrox Oxide, Simulations, Africa, Climate Finance, Abatement, Mitigation, Policies, Green Growth, Green Economy, Environment, Strategies, Perspectives, Challenges, Development Models, Temperature, Agriculture, Productivity, Poverty, Global Partnership, Ocean, Earth, Greenhouse Gases, Envisage, Cge Model, Energy Climate Change, Global Warming, Sustainable Development, Carbon Dioxide, Emissions, Methane, Nitrox Oxide, Simulations, Africa, Climate Finance, Abatement, Mitigation, Policies, Green Growth, Green Economy, Environment, Strategies, Perspectives, Challenges, Development Models, Temperature, Agriculture, Productivity, Poverty, Global Partnership, Ocean, Earth, Greenhouse Gases, Envisage, Cge Model, Energy
    JEL: D5 D62 H2 I3 L50 O1 O13 O14 O19 O2 O21 O3 O30 O33 O4 Q0 Q2 Q3 Q4 R0
    Date: 2013–05–07
  14. By: Dickovick, J. Tyler
    Abstract: Donor support for decentralization comes in two main categories: recommendations at the policy level and project activities at the programming level. At the policy level, donors promote decentralization by recommending greater autonomy for subnational act
    Keywords: decentralization, development, local governance, Africa
    Date: 2013
  15. By: Robinson, Elizabeth J.Z.; Albers, H.J.; Meshack, Charles; Lokina, Razack B.
    Abstract: REDD (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation) aims to slow carbon releases caused by forest disturbance by making payments conditional on forest quality over time. Like earlier policies to slow deforestation, REDD must change the behaviour of forest degraders. Broadly, it can be implemented with payments to potential forest degraders, thus creating incentives; through payments for enforcement, thus creating disincentives; or through addressing external drivers such as urban charcoal demand. In Tanzania, community-based forest management (CBFM), a form of participatory forest management (PFM), was chosen as the model for implementing REDD pilot programs. Payments are made to villages that have the rights to forest carbon. In exchange for these payments, the villages must demonstrably reduce deforestation at the village level. Using this pilot program as a case study, we provide insights for REDD implementation in sub-Saharan Africa. We pay particular attention to leakage, monitoring and enforcement. We suggest that implementing REDD through CBFM-type structures can create appropriate incentives and behavioural change when the recipients of the REDD funds are also the key drivers of forest change. When external forces drive forest change, however, REDD through CBFM-type structures becomes an enforcement program, with local communities rather than government agencies being responsible for the enforcement. That structure imposes costs on local communities, whose local authority limits the ability to address leakage outside the particular REDD village. In addition, for REDD to lead to lower emissions, implementation will have to emphasize conditionality of payments on measurable decreases in forest loss.
    Keywords: REDD, community-based forest management, leakage, Tanzania
    Date: 2013–03–13
  16. By: Alem, Yonas; Hassen, Sied; Kohlin, Gunnar
    Abstract: Previous studies on improved cookstove adoption in developing countries use cross-sectional data, which makes it difficult to control for unobserved heterogeneity and investigate what happens to adoption over time. We use robust non-linear panel data and hazard models on three rounds of panel data from urban Ethiopia to investigate the determinants and dynamics of electric cookstove adoption. We find the price of electricity and firewood, and access to credit as major determinants of adoption and transition. Our findings have important implications for policies aiming at promotion of energy transition and reduction of the pressure on forest resources in developing countries.
    Keywords: cookstoves, electric mitad, firewood, panel data, random-effects probit
    JEL: Q40 Q41 Q42 Q48
    Date: 2013–01–24
  17. By: Dikgang, Johane; Muchapondwa, Edwin
    Abstract: The restitution of parkland to the Khomani San “bushmen” and Mier “agricultural” communities in May 2002 marked a significant shift in conservation in the Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park and environs in South Africa. Biodiversity conservation will benefit from this land restitution only if the Khomani San, who interact with nature more than do other groups, are good environmental stewards. To assess their attitude toward biodiversity conservation, this study used the contingent valuation method to investigate the values the communities assign to biodiversity conservation under three land tenure arrangements in the Kgalagadi area. For each community and land tenure arrangement, there are winners and losers, but the winners benefit by more than the cost that losers suffer. The net worth for biodiversity conservation under the various land tenure regimes ranged from R928 to R3,456 to R4,160 for municipal land, parkland, and communal land respectively for the Khomani San, compared to R25,600 to R57,600 to R64,000 for municipal land, parkland, and communal land respectively for the Mier. Both communities have the highest preference for the implementation of the biodiversity conservation programme on communal land. There are no significant differences in the WTP between the two communities when adjusted for annual median household income; hence, the Khomani San can be trusted to become good environmental stewards. However, in order for all members of the local communities to support biodiversity conservation unconditionally, mechanisms for fair distribution of the associated costs and benefits should be put in place.
    Keywords: biodiversity, contingent valuation, Khomani San, land restitution
    JEL: Q01 Q53 Q57
    Date: 2012–10–17
  18. By: Gebreegziabher, Zenebe; Mekonnen, Alemu; Ferede, Tadele; Guta, Fantu; Levin, Jörgen; Köhlin, Gunnar; Alemu, Tekie; Bohlin, Lars
    Abstract: In response to global opportunities and domestic challenges, Ethiopia is revising its energy policy to switch from high-cost imported fossil fuel to domestically produced biofuels. Currently, there are biofuel investment activities in different parts of the country to produce ethanol and biodiesel. However, there is no rigorous empirical study to assess impacts of such investments. This paper assesses the distributive effect and food security implications of biofuels investment in Ethiopia, using data from 15 biofuels firms and 2 NGOs in a CGE (computable general equilibrium) analysis. Findings suggest that biofuels investments in the context of Ethiopia might have a ‘win-win’ outcome that can improve smallholder productivity (food security) and increase household welfare. In particular, the spillover effects of certain biofuels can increase the production of food cereals (with the effect being variable across regions) without increasing cereal prices. When spillover effects are considered, biofuel investment tends to improve the welfare of most rural poor households. Urban households benefit from returns to labor under some scenarios. These findings assume that continued government investment in roads allows biofuels production to expand on land that is currently unutilized, so that smallholders do not lose land. Investment in infrastructure such as roads can thus maximize the benefits of biofuels investment.
    Keywords: biofuels investment, CGE model, food security, household welfare, equivalent variation, Ethiopia
    JEL: Q56 Q42 O44 O5
    Date: 2013–01–18
  19. By: Kebede, Bereket; Tarazona, Marcela; Munro, Alistair; Verschoor, Arjan
    Abstract: An experimental design using treatments of a voluntary contribution mechanism is used to test household efficiency. Efficiency is decisively rejected in all treatments contrary to the assumption of most household models. Information on initial endowments
    Keywords: household efficiency, intra-household models, experimental games, Ethiopia
    Date: 2013
  20. By: Olomola, Aderibigbe S.
    Abstract: The food crisis of 2008 in Nigeria was influenced by price changes in the world market and the escalation of the price of imported fuel into Nigeria which led to sharp increases in the prices of agricultural inputs and transportation cost. The soaring pri
    Keywords: food crisis, policy responses, political economy
    Date: 2013
  21. By: Fant, Charles; Gebretsadik, Yohannes; Strzepek, Kenneth
    Abstract: The past reliance on historical observed weather patterns for future investment in basic infrastructure planning (e.g., irrigation schemes, hydropower plants, roads, etc.) has been questioned considerably in recent years. For this reason, efforts to study
    Keywords: climate Change, Zambezi, southern Africa, investment risk, system model, water resource
    Date: 2013
  22. By: Neumann, James E.; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Ravela, Sai; Ludwig, Lindsay C.; Verly, Caroleen
    Abstract: This article considers the impact of sea level rise and storm surge on the port cities of Maputo and Beira in Mozambique. By combining a range of sea level rise scenarios for 2050 with the potential maximum storm surge level for the current 100-year storm
    Keywords: sea level rise, storm surge, tropical cyclone risk, flood risk, southern Africa
    Date: 2013
  23. By: Kassie, Girma Tesfahun; Erenstein, Olaf; Mwangi, Wilfred; Setimela, Peter S.; Langyintuo, Augustine S.; Kaonga, K.K.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty,
    Date: 2012–09
  24. By: Ncube, Mthuli (African Development Bank); Shimeles, Abebe (African Development Bank)
    Abstract: This paper presents evidence on the making of the middle class in Africa by exploiting a comparable micro data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for thirty-seven countries over two decades consisting of over seven hundred thousand household histories. We constructed a pseudo-panel to examine the dynamics of middle class in blocks of four periods covering the period 1990-2011. A key finding is that there was significant mobility of the middle class to the upper class in the last two decades with very few slipping back to poverty with obvious difference across countries. The paper approached the making of a middle class in Africa from institutional and policy perspectives. Initial conditions such as level of development in early decades, quality of institutions and most of all ethnic fractionalization play a significant role in determining the growth of the middle class in recent years. In addition we found evidence suggesting that the size of the middle class is higher in countries where mutual trust among citizens tends to be stronger. The role of education feature prominently in the making of the middle class. In about 30 of the 83 country-level regression decompositions we conducted for the asset index, the contribution of education exceeded 25% in explaining the overall variance in the asset index. The 'premium' (or 'return') individuals obtain from achieving primary, secondary and tertiary level of education is unambiguously high compared with no education, but the effect decreases as the mean level of schooling increases.
    Keywords: middle class, asset index, multiple correspondence analysis, regression decomposition
    JEL: D31 J15
    Date: 2013–04
  25. By: Chirwa, Ephraim; Chinsinga, Blessings
    Abstract: The paper examines the underlying political economy motivations of the government.s policy responses to food price increases in 2007/08 focusing particularly on maize as the main staple crop. The main government policy responses to the food price spikes i
    Keywords: food policy, price policy, food security, policy processes, political economy
    Date: 2013
  26. By: Beyene, Abebe D.; Bezabih, Mintewab; Gebreegziabher, Zenebe
    Abstract: Using the land tenure system in Ethiopia, where all land is state-owned and only farm households have usufruct rights, as a case study, we assessed the links between land owners’ tenure insecurity, associated behavioral factors, and contract length. In this paper, we analyze these links with survey data of rural households in the Amhara National Regional State of Ethiopia. The empirical strategy follows a hazard function model employed in duration data analyses and investigates the fitness of the data to the alternative exponential and Weibull functional forms. The results show that landlords’ risk aversion increases the duration of contracts, which is in line with the reverse tenancy argument that landlords’ risk preferences affect land-contract decisions. The findings of the study also indicate that tenure insecurity is a critical factor in the nature and length of contracts; hence, policies should aim to reduce landlords’ frustrations regarding future land redistribution by the state. An important implication of the results is that secure tenure systems can reduce the disincentives from tenure insecurity due to uncertainty about contract duration and thereby enhance tenants’ welfare. Longer-term and stable contracts can improve the land rental market. In addition, the impact of risk preferences points toward the importance of poverty in the functioning of the land rental market.
    Keywords: contract length, tenure insecurity, risk and rate of time preferences, Ethiopia
    JEL: D2 Q12 Q15
    Date: 2012–07–24
  27. By: Nzuma, Jonathan Makau
    Abstract: This paper evaluates Kenya.s food price crisis over 2002.11 using a political economy approach. Kenya.s food prices have been high and volatile relative to world food prices. Moreover, domestic food markets are highly integrated while about 30 per cent of
    Keywords: political economy, food prices, policy processes
    Date: 2013
  28. By: Beyene, Abebe D.; Bluffstone, Randall; Mekonnen, Alemu
    Abstract: REDD+ (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation, “plus” afforestration) is a tool that supports forest carbon-enhancing approaches in the developing world in order to mitigate and hopefully reverse climate change. A key issue within REDD+ is to appropriately bring in the almost 25% of developing country forests that are effectively controlled by communities. Many authors have discussed the social aspects of appropriateness, but there is limited analysis of the actual carbon sequestration potential of better-managed community controlled forests (CCFs). Drawing on an analytical framework that relies heavily on the common property and social capital literatures, our paper contributes to closing this research gap and sheds light on whether community forest management structures should be given serious consideration as REDD+ partners in the battle to mitigate climate change. Using household and community level data from four regional states in Ethiopia, we examine whether CCFs with design features known to be associated with better management appear to sequester more carbon than community systems with lower levels of these characteristics. The empirical analysis suggests that the quality of local level institutions may be important determinants of carbon sequestration. Developing country CCFs may therefore play a positive role within the context of REDD+ and other carbon sequestration initiatives. However, because of the nature of our data, results should be considered indicative. Better and smarter data combined with innovative techniques are needed to conclusively evaluate linkages between CCFs, carbon sequestration and REDD+.
    Keywords: carbon stock, local institutions, REDD, rural Ethiopia
    JEL: Q23 Q54
    Date: 2013–03–22
  29. By: John Cockburn; Hélène Maisonnave; Véronique Robichaud; Luca Tiberti
    Abstract: Despite high growth rates in recent decades, Burkina Faso is still a poor country. The government acknowledges the need for a stronger commitment to reach the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), particularly regarding the reduction of poverty. At the same time, the Burkinabe budget deficit has grown in recent years in response to various crises which have hit the country. There are strong pressures to rapidly reduce this budget deficit, but there are active concerns about how this will be achieved. The country thus faces difficult choices: how to ensure better living conditions for children, attain the millennium goals and ensure they have a better future in the present budgetary context? To answer this question, three policy interventions were identified: (i) an increase in education spending, (ii) a school fees subsidy and (iii) a cash transfer to households with children under the age of five. The same total amount is injected into the economy in each of the three cases, facilitating comparison between the three scenarios. The discussions also made it possible to identify the three financing mechanisms that appear most realistic: (i) a reduction in subsidies, (ii) an increase in the indirect tax collection rate and (iii) an extension of the timeframe to reduce the public deficit to ten years rather than five. The results indicate that increased public education spending helps raise school participation and pass rates, thus increasing the supply and education level of skilled workers, leading to a reduced incidence and depth of both monetary and caloric poverty. School fees subsidies have more differentiated effects on education: they promote children’s entry into school to a greater degree, but are less effective at inducing them to pursue their studies. Finally, the supply of skilled workers increases slightly, but their average level of education is lower than in the reference scenario. This type of intervention has a beneficial impact on poverty, greater than under increased public education spending. Cash transfers have a limited impact on educational behaviour, and thus on the supply of skilled workers, but substantially reduce the incidence and depth of poverty. The results are qualitatively similar under each financing approach. In sum, if the objective is to achieve improved education and economic performance, the best intervention appears to be to focus on increased public education spending. However, if reducing child poverty is prioritized, it is cash transfers to families that appear more suitable. Regardless of the intervention considered, the most suitable financing mechanism appears to be a temporary increase in the public deficit, because it is accompanied by a smaller negative effect on the quality of life of the most destitute.
    Keywords: Child Poverty, Dynamic General Equilibrium, Micro-Simulation, Burkina Faso
    JEL: I32 D58 C50 O55
    Date: 2013
  30. By: Nhate, Virgulino; Massingarela, Claudio; Salvucci, Vincenzo
    Abstract: The 2007-09 price shocks affected in particular the prices of food commodities and fuel. As a consequence, Mozambique experienced reduced exports, more expensive imports and increased food and oil prices, contributing to the stagnant poverty rates registe
    Keywords: food price, agriculture, price shocks, political economy, Mozambique
    Date: 2013
  31. By: Negassa, Asfaw; Hellin, Jonathan; Shiferaw, Bekele A.
    Abstract: The Heckman two-stage estimation procedure was used to investigate factors influencing the adoption of modern and/or landrace wheat varieties and spatial diversity of wheat varieties in Turkey. In the first stage, the multinomial logit choice model (MNLM) was used to determine factors influencing farmers’ adoption of modern varieties (MVs) and/or landrace varieties (LVs) of wheat. Conditional on the choice of a given wheat variety or combination of MVs and LVs, a Tobit regression model was used to assess the determinants of on-farm spatial diversity of wheat varieties in the second stage. Our empirical approach allows for the analysis of partial adoption decision of wheat varieties and controls for self-selection problem in analyzing the determinants of spatial diversity of wheat varieties. The empirical model was conceptualized based on random utility model(RUM).The analysis was based on cross-sectional survey data collected on 486 sample households in six provinces of Turkey. Results showed that household size, the number of owned cattle, the number of buildings on farm, farm size, farm land fragmentation, the percentage of irrigable farm plots and regional variations are the important factors in determining the farmers’ first-stage choice of wheat variety types. The selfselection problem was significant only in one of the three cases for the landrace wheat varieties. In the second stage, the farm size and land fragmentation were found to be the key variables influencing the level of on-farm spatial diversity of wheat varieties. The results showed that considerable spatial wheat genetic diversity was maintained on-farm at the household level, mainly through the simultaneous adoption of modern and traditional wheat varieties. Growing a combination of modern and landrace wheat varieties was observed to yield significantly higher level of spatial diversity of wheat genetic resources as compared to growing modern varieties alone or landrace varieties alone. This result suggests that the modern and landrace wheat varieties can coexist and could still support more on-farm spatial diversity of wheat genetic resources. This finding has significant implications for future extension, research and policy efforts for on-farm conservation and utilization of wheat genetic resources in Turkey. There is a need for the government and private sector research and extension efforts to support farmers’ use of both modern and landrace varieties, for example, in terms of seed supply, provision of extension and credit services and marketing support instead of just giving undue priority to popularization and adoption of modern varieties alone.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics,
    Date: 2012–03
  32. By: Arndt, Channing; Thurlow, James
    Abstract: We apply a probabilistic approach to the evaluation of climate change impacts in the Zambeze River Valley. The economic modeling relies on an economywide modeling approach. Taking a distribution of shocks as inputs, we create hybrid frequency distribution
    Keywords: Climate change, uncertainty, economic impacts, economywide model, Mozambique
    Date: 2013
  33. By: Dufwenberg, Martin; Köhlin, Gunnar; Martinsson, Peter; Medhin, Haileselassie
    Abstract: Land conflicts can be detrimental. An important goal of development policy is to help define and instill respect for borders. This is often implemented through mandatory and expensive interventions that rely on the expansion of government land administration institutions. We bring to the table a new policy that, in theory, promotes neighborly relations and equitable divisions at low cost. The salient features of this policy would be the existence of a regulatory institution and the option to bypass regulation in favor of a cooperative solution. Such a policy is particularly relevant when the government formally owns the land but tenure rights are about to be individualized. The key idea combines the logic of forward induction with the insight that social preferences transform social dilemmas into coordination problems. As a first and low-cost pass at empirical evaluation, we conduct a framed field experiment among farmers in the Ethiopian highlands, a region exhibiting features typical of many countries where borders are often disputed.
    Keywords: conflict, land grabbing game, social preferences, forward induction, Ethiopia, experiment, land reform, development aid
    JEL: C78 C93 D63 Q15
    Date: 2013–01–18
  34. By: Jones, Sam; Tarp, Finn
    Abstract: Mozambique has achieved remarkable macroeconomic success over recent decades, boasting one of the world.s highest rates of GDP growth. However, absolute poverty remains persistent, spilling over into social unrest. To better understand the link between ag
    Keywords: Mozambique, labour market, jobs, agriculture, structural transformation
    Date: 2013
  35. By: Castilla, Carolina
    Abstract: I present a model of intra-household allocation to show that when income is not perfectly observed by both spouses, hiding of income can occur even when revelation increases bargaining power. I draw data from Ghana and exploit the variation in the degree
    Keywords: incomplete information, income-hiding, non-cooperative family bargaining
    Date: 2013

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