nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2013‒04‒27
35 papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Mobile wholesale and retail price interplay: The somewhat contrary case of South Africa in Africa By Stork, Christoph; Gillwald, Alison
  2. Does freer trade really lead to productivity growth?: Evidence from Africa By Bresnahan, Lauren; Coxhead, Ian; Foltz, Jeremey; Mogues, Tewodaj
  3. Financial development and manufactured exports: the african experience By Wamboye, Evelyn; Mookerjee, Rajen
  4. The patterns of mobile telephony development in Sub Sahara Africa: A cluster analysis By Moshi, Goodiel; Mitomo, Hitoshi
  5. Who talks to whom in African agricultural research information networks? The Malawi case By Droppelmann, Klaus; Mapila, Mariam A. T. J.; Mazunda, John; Thangata, Paul; Yauney, Jason
  6. Internet going mobile: Internet access and usage in eleven African countries By Stork, Christoph; Calandro, Enrico; Gillwald, Alison
  7. The Determinants of Technology Adoption:The Case of the Rice Sector in Tanzania By Nakano, Yuko; Kajisa, Kei
  8. Forget your gods: African evidence on the relation between state capacity and cognitive ability of leading politicians By Kodila-Tedika, Oasis
  9. A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Concentrator Photovoltaic Technology Use in South Africa: A Case Study By Mario du Preez, Justin Beukes and E. Ernest van Dyk
  10. Short Run Underpricing of Initial Public Offering (IPOs) in the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) By Gillian van Heerden and Paul Alagidede
  11. Is Africa's recent growth sustainable? By Andersen, Thomas Barnebeck; Jensen, Peter Sandholt
  12. The Causal Relationship between Imports and Economic Growth in the Nine Provinces of South Africa: Evidence from Panel-Granger Causality Tests By Tsangyao Chang; Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne; Rangan Gupta
  13. Predictors of mobile internet usage in 10 African countries By Calandro, Enrico; Wang, Rong
  14. Extensification and Intensification Process of Rainfed Lowland Rice Farming in Mozambique By Kajisa, Kei; Payongayong, Ellen
  15. Fiscal Policy Shocks and the Dynamics of Asset Prices: The South African Experience By Goodness C. Aye; Mehmet Balcilar; Rangan Gupta; Charl Jooste; Stephen M. Miller; Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir
  16. Spillover effects of targeted subsidies: An assessment of fertilizer and improved seed use in Nigeria By Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda; Salau, Sheu
  17. Correcting inflation with financial dynamic fundamentals: which adjustments matter in Africa? By Asongu, Simplice A
  18. The impact of irrigation on nutrition, health, and gender: A review paper with insights for Africa south of the Sahara By Domenech, Laia; Ringler, Claudia
  19. How gender-sensitive are the National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) of Sub-Saharan African countries? A gender-scan of 31 NAPAs By Holvoet, Nathalie; Inberg, Liesbeth
  20. Life chances and class: Estimating inequality of opportunity in South Africa for various life stages By Asmus Zoch
  21. Unbundling Land Administrative Reform: Demand for Second Stage Land Certification in Ethiopia By Bezu, Sosina; Holden, Stein
  22. How Much Does Women's Empowerment Influence their Wellbeing? Evidence from Africa By David Fielding
  23. Enhancing rural connectivity through an extended internet cafés business models By Williams, Idongesit; Gyaase, Patrick Ohemeng; Falch, Morten
  24. Improving navigability on the Kromme river Estuary: A choice experiment application By Deborah E Lee, Stephen G Hosking and Mario Du Preez
  25. Impact of a Shade Coffee Certification Programon Forest Conservation:A Case Study from a Wild Coffee Forest in Ethiopia By Takahashi, Ryo; Todo, Yasuyuki
  26. The Surprisingly Dire Situation of Children's Education in Rural West Africa: Results from the CREO Study in Guinea-Bissau (Comprehensive Review of Education Outcomes) By Peter Boone; Ila Fazzio; Kameshwari Jandhyala; Chitra Jayanty; Gangadhar Jayanty; Simon Johnson; Vimala Ramachandrin; Filipa Silva; Zhaoguo Zhan
  27. Scaling-up What Works: Experimental Evidence on External Validity in Kenyan Education. By Tessa Bold; Mwangi Kimenyi; Germano Mwabu; Alice Ng'ang'a; Justin Sandefur
  28. Using Interviewer Random Effects to Calculate Unbiased HIV Prevalence Estimates in the Presence of Non-Response: a Bayesian Approach By Mark E. McGovern; Till Bärnighausen; Joshua A. Salomon; David Canning
  29. Monetary exchange rate model as a long-run phenomenon: evidence from Nigeria By Adawo, Monday A.; Effiong, Ekpeno L.
  30. Institutional analysis of monitoring and evaluation systems : comparing M&E systems in Ugandas health and education sector By Holvoet, Nathalie; Inberg, Liesbeth; Sikirime, Susan
  31. Potential and actual FDI spillovers in global value chains : the role of foreign investor characteristics, absorptive capacity and transmission channels By Winkler, Deborah
  32. Taille des villes, urbanisation et spécialisations économiques; Une analyse sur micro-données exhaustives des 10 000 localités maliennes By Claire Bernard; Sandrine Mesplé-Somps; Gilles Spielvogel
  33. Assessing the effectiveness of multistakeholder platforms: Agricultural and rural management councils in the Democratic Republic of the Congo By Badibanga, Thaddée; Ragasa, Catherine; Ulimwengu, John M.
  34. Urbanization and poverty reduction -- the role of rural diversification and secondary towns By Christiaensen, Luc; De Weerdt, Joachim; Todo, Yasuyuki
  35. Schooling, violent conflict, and gender in Burundi By Verwimp, Philip; Van Bavel, Jan

  1. By: Stork, Christoph; Gillwald, Alison
    Abstract: This paper analyses the link between termination rate reductions and retail prices. It draws on in-depth case studies of South Africa, Namibia and Kenya where regulators have reduced termination rates towards the cost of an efficient operator. To varying degrees these have all led to lower retail prices and a significant market expansion. While both Namibia and Kenya, experienced significant retail price reduction following substantial termination rate reductions, the case of South Africa demonstrates that termination rate reductions are not automatically passed through to consumers. In South Africa only the second reduction in March 2012 allowed smaller operators to reduce their off-net prices to a level could tempt subscribers from dominant operators to switch. The case studies confirm that retail prices do not go up in response to termination rates going down, in CPNP (calling-party's-network-pays) markets as contended by dominant mobile operators. This is also in contrast to a body of academic literature stating that termination rates and mobile retail prices constitute a two-sided market and that termination rate reductions will lead to a so called waterbed effect. This study draws on a database of all prepaid products available in 46 African countries which were collected monthly for the period January 2011 to June 2012. The OECD price basket methodology is used to compare prices between countries and between operators. In-depth face-to-face interviews on termination rate regulations were also held with regulators in Kenya, Namibia and South Africa. The analysis is further supplemented with an analysis of audited financial statements of dominant operators in each market, namely Vodacom South Africa, MTN South Africa, Telkom South Africa, MTC2 in Namibia, and Safaricom in Kenya. --
    Keywords: Mobile termination rates,retail prices,Waterbed effect,two-sided markets,South Africa,Kenya,Namibia
    Date: 2012
  2. By: Bresnahan, Lauren; Coxhead, Ian; Foltz, Jeremey; Mogues, Tewodaj
    Abstract: We use firm-level data from the World Bank’s Regional Program on Enterprise Development, covering Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, and Tanzania for 1991–2003. Econometric results confirm well-known relationships, such as a positive association between export intensity and TFP, which implies that more productive firms are more likely to select in to exporting.
    Keywords: trade; firm productivity; Manufacturing industries; exports; trade liberalization;,
    Date: 2013
  3. By: Wamboye, Evelyn; Mookerjee, Rajen
    Abstract: Using a sample of twenty nine African countries for which adequate time series data are available this paper explores the nexus between financial development and manufactured exports. This particular relationship is especially important in the context of Africa since export diversification away from resources and agriculture is an important part of Africa’s growth strategy. Our results show that in eleven countries financial development causes manufactured exports and manufactured exports causes financial development in seven countries. We then explore reasons for these findings and find that a rich and surprising set of factors explain our findings.
    Keywords: Financial Development, Granger Causality, Manufactured Exports, Africa
    JEL: E44 E50 F13 G20 O16 O55
    Date: 2013–04–22
  4. By: Moshi, Goodiel; Mitomo, Hitoshi
    Abstract: --
    Date: 2012
  5. By: Droppelmann, Klaus; Mapila, Mariam A. T. J.; Mazunda, John; Thangata, Paul; Yauney, Jason
    Abstract: The sector-wide approach currently dominates as the strategy for developing the agricultural sector of many African countries. Although it is recognized that agricultural research plays a vital role in ensuring success of sectorwide agricultural development strategies, there has been little or no effort to explicitly link the research strategies of the National Agricultural Research System (NARS) in African countries to the research agenda that is articulated in sectorwide agricultural development strategies. This study fills that gap by analyzing the readiness of Malawi’s NARS to respond to the research needs of the national agricultural sector development strategy, namely the Agriculture Sector Wide Approach (ASWAp) program. Results of a social network analysis demonstrate that public agricultural research departments play a central coordinating role in facilitating information sharing, with other actors remaining on the periphery. However, that analysis also shows the important role other actors play in relaying information to a wider network of stakeholders. These secondary information pathways can play a crucial role in ensuring successful implementation of the national agricultural research agenda. Policymakers and managers of public research programs are called upon to integrate other research actors into the mainstream national agricultural research information network. This is vital as other research actors are, at the global level, increasingly taking up a greater role in financing and disseminating research and research results, and in enhancing the scaling up and out of new agricultural technologies.
    Keywords: Framework for African Agricultural Productivity, National Agricultural Research System (NARS), sector-wide approach, Social network analysis, Africa, Africa south of Sahara, East Africa, Malawi
    Date: 2013
  6. By: Stork, Christoph; Calandro, Enrico; Gillwald, Alison
    Abstract: While the 2007/8 African ICT access and usage survey demonstrated alarmingly little access to the Internet on on the continent together with a large-scale absence of computers and smart phones and compounded by the high cost of connectivity, (Gillwald & Stork 2008), the mobile phone is now the key entry point for Internet usage.1 Internet access has increased significantly across all countries as a result increasing Internet penetration to 15,5% across the ten African countries surveyed on household and individual ICT access and usage by Research ICT Africa in 2011/12.2 Mobile internet requires less ICT skills, less financial resources and does not rely on electricity at home compared to computer or laptop and generally fixed-Internet access. Other findings highlight the unevenness of Internet take up across and within countries. So while the majority of the countries under investigation demonstrate increased mobile Internet take up, in Rwanda, Tanzania and Ethiopia Internet usage remains negligible. In those countries where mobile Internet is driving connectivity this is being driven by social networking applications. Understanding prepaid mobile Internet further provides a pro-poor dimension to public policies seeking improved Internet access and which was historically available and affordable to the elite, other than through public access points, whether private Internet cafes or schools and libraries, raising significant policy questions with which the paper concludes. --
    Date: 2012
  7. By: Nakano, Yuko; Kajisa, Kei
    Abstract: Using an extensive household-level data set collected in Tanzania, this paper investigates the determinants of technology adoption in rice cultivation by focusing on the role of credit. We find that credit enhances fertilizer use and the adoption of labor-intensive agronomic practices such as transplanting in rows, for which monitoring of hired labor is easy. We also find that new technologies are adopted more widely in irrigated areas and small-scale farmers are not at a disadvantage. Based on these findings, we argue that with appropriate policies including credit, a rice Green Revolution can improve the productivity of small-scale farmers in Tanzania.
    Keywords: technology adoption , Green Revolution , Sub-Saharan Africa , Tanzania
    Date: 2013–03–26
  8. By: Kodila-Tedika, Oasis
    Abstract: This paper uses a unique dataset to investigate the effect of the cognitive ability of leading politicians on state capacity. Given the evidence that cognitive ability of leading politicians’ affects state capacity positively, except Africa. For the continent, this relationship between state and cognitive ability of leading politicians is negative. This finding is robust to a wide range of specifications and controls variables. Justifications for the unexpected nexus are provided.
    Keywords: State capacity, cognitive ability of leading politicians, Intelligence, Africa
    JEL: D02 H11 I25 O20 O43 O5
    Date: 2013–04–22
  9. By: Mario du Preez, Justin Beukes and E. Ernest van Dyk
    Abstract: The South African government currently faces the dual problems of climate change mitigation and the rollout of electricity provision to rural, previously disadvantaged communities. This paper investigates the economic efficiency of the implementation of concentrator photovoltaic (CPV) technology in the Tyefu area in the Eastern Cape, South Africa as a means of addressing these problems. A cost-benefit analysis (CBA), both from a social and a private perspective, is carried out in the study. The CBA from a private perspective investigates the desirability of the CPV project from a private energy investor’s point of view, whilst the CBA from a social perspective investigates the desirability of the CPV project from society’s point of view. The CBA from a social perspective found that the project was socially viable and was, thus, an efficient allocation of government resources. The CBA from a private perspective, on the other hand, found that investing in a CPV project was not financially viable for a private investor. It is recommended that the government consider CPV as an alternative to grid-connected electricity provision to rural, previously disadvantaged communities.
    Keywords: Cost-benefit analysis, concentrator photovoltaic technology, social discount rate
    Date: 2013
  10. By: Gillian van Heerden and Paul Alagidede
    Abstract: The underpricing of initial public offerings (IPOs) represents one of the anomalies observed in primary markets worldwide, however, the depth and breadth of it varies from country to country, and sector to sector. This study is an empirical analysis of short run performance of IPOs in the Johannesburg StockExchange (JSE). Using data for 138 South African IPOs that were listed on the JSE from 2006 to 2010, we found significant short run underpricing. A sector wise analysis of three broad sectors indicated that the financial sector had the largest IPO underpricing, particularly evident in 2007. The year-wise analysis is also documented.
    Keywords: IPOs, JSE, underpricing, South Africa
    JEL: G0 C12 C13
    Date: 2013
  11. By: Andersen, Thomas Barnebeck (Department of Business and Economics); Jensen, Peter Sandholt (Department of Business and Economics)
    Abstract: In this paper we argue that the answer is yes. Our optimism rests on the finding that differences in the level of institutional quality predict cross-country variation in African economic growth during the period 1995-2011. This finding is quite robust. It holds in OLS, LAD and 2SLS settings; it holds for different measures of institutions and different measures of economic growth; and it holds for the period before and the period after the global financial crisis. We also show that changes in institutional quality predict cross-country variation in African economic growth. Moreover, if we split our sample in two equally sized groups, a high-growth and a lowgrowth group, then the high-growth group has experienced a statistically significant increase in institutional quality, whereas the low-growth group has not. Overall, this makes probable that institutions has played an important part in Africa’s recent growth acceleration. The continent has seen many false dawns, caused in large part by ups in commodity prices, but a growth acceleration driven by institutions is likely to signify a genuine African takeoff.
    Keywords: Institutions; economic growth; Africa
    JEL: O11 O43 O47
    Date: 2013–04–15
  12. By: Tsangyao Chang (Department of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan); Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)
    Abstract: This paper examines the causal relationship between imports and growth in nine provinces of South Africa for the period 1996-2011, using panel causality analysis, which accounts for cross-section dependency and heterogeneity across regions. Our empirical results support unidirectional causality running from economic growth to imports for Gauteng, Mpumalanga, North West, and Western Cape; a bi-directional causality between imports and economic growth for KwaZulu-Natal; and no causality in any direction between economic growth and imports for the rest of provinces. This suggests that import liberalisation might not be an efficient strategy to improve provincial economic performance in South Africa. Indeed, provincial imports tend to increase in some provinces as economic growth improves.
    Keywords: Imports, Economic Growth, Dependency and Heterogeneity, Panel Causality Test
    JEL: C33 F14 R11 R12
    Date: 2013–04
  13. By: Calandro, Enrico; Wang, Rong
    Abstract: Mobile phones and Internet use can enable human capabilities that can contribute to positive developmental outcomes (Smith, Spencer, & Rashid, 2011; Ndung'u & Waema, 2011; Agüero, de Silva & Kang, 2011; Sen, 1999). Communication networks, in Africa particularly mobile phones, have been recognised as an important component for social mobilisation (Castells, 2009). Reports have focused on the role of mobile phones in organising social protests and political mobilization (Comninos, 2011) such as the food protest in Mozambique in 2007/08, and violent ethnic mobilisation in Kenya in 2009 and around the world. Further, since the Arab Spring, the use of the mobile phone for social mobilization has become an increasing focus of research. As part of this research which seeks to explore the role of ICTs in contemporary social and political engagement, this paper presents an empirical assessment of predominant social and demographic factors that are predictors of mobile Internet usage. It is based on nationally representative ICT household survey data collected by Research ICT Africa in 2011 and 2012 across 10 African countries. This study draws on previous studies on technology adoption, and tests on the effect of social factors and demographic variables on mobile Internet usage. Also, it presents descriptive data on network exposure. It poses the following research questions: what are the social aspects and demographic factors influencing mobile Internet usage in selected African countries? To what extent does belonging to specific civic affiliations such as religious, recreational or political groups impact on mobile Internet usage? The odd of using mobile Internet is assessed against demographic factors such as age, gender, income and level of education, among others. The impact of mobile Internet usage for social mobilisation is evaluated against belonging to specific social affiliations such as religious, recreational or political organisations. Other predictors include affiliation with certain social groups and the closeness of the local community. Network exposure was measured in the ICT household surveys, by asking respondents to list how many people out of their top five contacts are users of mobile phones and social network sites. Further, the analysis includes also an assessment of whether the use of the mobile phone increased or decreased contacts with specific social groups. What activities users got involved in through the mobile are also included into the analysis. The study concludes with policy implications on mobile Internet usage in African countries in particular related to democracy, empowerment and capability development. Furthermore, since it investigates whether mobile Internet usage enhances contacts with different social groups such as family, friends, religious or political groups, this study seeks to assess the potential of the technology to mobilise different networks in selected African countries. --
    Keywords: ICT indicators,Access,Mobile Internet,Social Media,ICT Household Survey,ICTD
    Date: 2012
  14. By: Kajisa, Kei; Payongayong, Ellen
    Abstract: This paper explores the extensification and intensification process of rice production in Mozambique’s dominant rice ecology, i.e., rainfed lowland area. Our household-level data show that the potential of extensification is not fully exploited, as only 41% of the cultivable lowland is used for rice. The lack of power predominantly constrains rice area expansion. High potential also exists in land intensification as indicated by the average yield of 2.5 t/ha among the top 25% of rainfed farmers. Intensification through technology adoption and intensive crop care (i.e., Boserupian process) seems to be emerging among the farmers reaching their rice land limits.
    Keywords: Green Revolution , rice , Sub-Saharan Africa
    Date: 2013–03–29
  15. By: Goodness C. Aye (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria); Mehmet Balcilar (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Charl Jooste (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria); Stephen M. Miller (Department of Economics, University of Nevada, Las Vegas); Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir (Department of Economics, Gazi University)
    Abstract: This study assesses how fiscal policy affects the dynamics of asset markets, using Bayesian vector autoregressive models. We use sign restrictions to identify government revenue and government spending shocks, while controlling for generic business cycle and monetary policy shocks. In addition to examining the effects of anticipated and unanticipated revenue and spending shocks, we also analyse three types of fiscal policy scenarios: a deficit-financed spending increase, a balanced budget spending increase (financed with higher taxes), and a deficit-financed tax cut (revenue decreases but government spending stays unchanged). Using South African quarterly data from 1966:Q1 to 2011:Q2, we show that a deficit spending shock does not affect house prices, but temporarily exerts a positive effect on stock prices. With a deficit-financed tax cut shock, house prices increase persistently while stock prices increase quickly, but only temporarily. A balanced budget shock permanently decreases house prices and temporarily reduces stock prices.
    Keywords: Bayesian Sign-Restricted VAR, fiscal policy, housing prices, stock prices
    JEL: C32 E62 G10 H62
    Date: 2012–08
  16. By: Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda; Salau, Sheu
    Abstract: While there is growing evidence of the impact of targeted subsidies on private input demand, as far as we are aware no empirical studies have examined the spillover effects of targeted subsidies for just one input on the use of other complementary inputs with which there is low substitutability. Consequently, this study begins to fill this gap by exploring the effect of increasing access to subsidized fertilizer on farmers’ use of improved seed in Nigeria.
    Keywords: Agricultural inputs; voucher program; improved seed; improved seed adoption; fertilizer use; subsidies; fertilizer subsidies; Spillover;,
    Date: 2013
  17. By: Asongu, Simplice A
    Abstract: This paper assesses the adjustment of inflation with financial dynamic fundamentals of money (financial depth), credit (financial activity) and efficiency. Three main findings are established. (1) There are significant long-run relationships between inflation and the fundamentals. (2) The error correction mechanism is stable in all specifications but in case of any disequilibrium, only financial depth is significant in adjusting inflation to the long-run relationship. (3) In the long-run, short-term adjustments in the ability of banks to transform money into credit do not matter in correcting inflation. This is most probably due to surplus liquidity issues. Policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: Excess money; inflation; credit; Africa
    JEL: E31 E5 O55
    Date: 2012–09–18
  18. By: Domenech, Laia; Ringler, Claudia
    Abstract: The hypothesis underlying this review paper is that how irrigation gets deployed in SSA will be decisive not only for environmental sustainability (such as deciding remaining forest cover in the region) and poverty reduction, but also for health, nutrition, and gender outcomes in the region. The focus of this paper is on the health, nutrition, and gender linkage.
    Keywords: Irrigation; Nutrition; Health; Gender; Women; Water resources; Environmental impacts; Water use.;,
    Date: 2013
  19. By: Holvoet, Nathalie; Inberg, Liesbeth
    Abstract: The recent (draft) decision of the 2012 Conference of the Parties (CoP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) recognises that a more balanced representation of women from developed and developing countries in the UNFCCC process is important in order to create climate policies that are responding to the different needs of men and women in national and local contexts (UNFCCC, 2012). In the context of the UNFCC, countries that are most vulnerable to climate change list their priority adaptation projects in National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs). Guidelines for drafting NAPAs have been made gender-sensitive drawing upon equality, effectiveness and efficiency arguments. More specifically, climate change affect men and women differently and therefore, policies and programmes that do not take into account the particular needs and capacities of both men and women will fail to be effective and may even worsen the already existing male bias. Against this background of increased acknowledgement of the importance of gender mainstreaming in climate change policies, we aim at confronting rhetorics with reality. Our study investigates to what extent and in what way the 31 available Sub Sahara African NAPAs integrate a gender dimension into the different phases (diagnosis, selection of projects, budgeting, monitoring and evaluation) of the NAPA cycle and the different sectors that are especially related to climate change (in addition to the energy sector, these are the agriculture, forestry, water and sanitation and health sectors). Additionally, we also analyse the degree of participation of women and gender experts in diagnosis and decision-making as well as the gender sensitivity of the format used for participation. The findings of the gender scan among others demonstrate that there is a decline in gendersensitivity throughout the cycle, which is particularly outspoken when translation priorities into budgets and indicators. Next, processes have been more gender sensitive than the actual content of NAPAs which hints at the fact that the gender actors around the table in NAPA decision making have not always been able to influence the content of the NAPAs. This could among others be related to a low track record of these gender actors in the area of climate change. Local climate change experts on the other hand often lack operational ‘gender’ tools and approaches which are framed in their own terminology. When it comes to an integration of gender issues in climate change budgets, our study suggests that the insights, approaches and tools of gender budgeting could be particularly useful.
    Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa; National Adaptation Programmes of Action; NAPA
    Date: 2013–03
  20. By: Asmus Zoch (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)
    Abstract: This paper aims to determine the degree to which class and socio-economic background influence a child’s life chances and their future perspectives. We build on the growing number of papers that deal with the concept of inequality of opportunity. Comparing children from poor and middle class households we find significant differences in terms of access to basic education, sanitation, clean water and mobility. Our multivariate analysis highlights the importance of class membership for schooling outcomes and labour market prospects of a child. The single most important variable to explain schooling outcomes are mother’s education. While income seems to be less important for younger ages it becomes increasingly important for the chances of reaching matric and obtaining tertiary education. The results are robust for various models and panel data.
    Keywords: Inequality of opportunity, Intergenerational mobility, South Africa, Middle class
    JEL: D63 I24 J62
    Date: 2013
  21. By: Bezu, Sosina (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Holden, Stein (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences)
    Abstract: Ethiopia has implemented one of the largest, fastest and cheapest land registration and certification reforms in Africa. While there have been evidences of positive impacts of this land reform in terms of increased investment, land productivity and land rental market activities, the government is now piloting another round of land registration and certification that involves GPS measurement and computer registration. This ‘Second Stage land registration’ is expected to replace the registration from the first round that used field markings in combination with memory of the neighbors to identify plot borders. We use panel data from 600 households in two regions (Oromia and SNNP) to investigate household perceptions and demand for such a Second Stage reform. Our study has revealed a relatively low demand and WTP for Second Stage certificates. The WTP also decreases significantly from 2007 to 2012 while the value of land increases dramatically in the same period. Households with larger land holdings and male-headed households whose First Stage certificate contained only the husband’s name are especially less interested in a new registration. Households who attended a meeting on land registration are more interested and willing to pay for Second Stage certificate. The demand for Second Stage certificates comes primarily from the Land Administrations as it can provide a better basis for Land Administration and produce public documentation of land-related affairs.
    Keywords: Land registration and certification; Second Stage registration and certification; joint land certification; land administration; gender;
    JEL: Q15
    Date: 2013–04–19
  22. By: David Fielding (Department of Economics, University of Otago, New Zealand)
    Abstract: One of the eight Millennium Development Goals is to 'promote gender equality and empower women.' However, only 1% of official foreign aid is currently spent on gender equality and human rights. Using individual-level survey data from 39 villages in northern Senegal, we model the effects that freedom within the home have on married women's subjective wellbeing. We find the direct effects on wellbeing to be of a similar magnitude to the direct effects of consumption, education and morbidity. These results suggest the need for a review of aid allocation priorities.
    Keywords: wellbeing; health; women's empowerment
    JEL: O15 J12 I15
    Date: 2013–04
  23. By: Williams, Idongesit; Gyaase, Patrick Ohemeng; Falch, Morten
    Abstract: This paper discusses the potentials of an adaptation of the Internet café business model adopted for Internet access in African cities to improve rural Internet access through a partnership between the public and private sectors. The rural areas in most developing countries e lack of Internet connectivity due to commercial unviability of such investment by the private sector alone.. The modernization theory is used to support the concept that the availability of Internet services in rural can be catalyzed if an Adaptation of the Internet cafés business model incorporating the public participation are replicated in the rural areas. . A study is carried out in Ghana, where the market players in the Internet café operations to ascertain the potential viability of public - private partnership in the provisioning of internet access in the rural areas in Ghana. A new business model in the form of Public Private Partnership is proposed that will facilitate the extension of Internet cafés into rural areas to enhance rural connectivity. --
    Date: 2012
  24. By: Deborah E Lee, Stephen G Hosking and Mario Du Preez
    Abstract: Navigation of estuaries is a vitally important aspect of boating recreation in South Africa and elsewhere. This paper uses a choice experiment to estimate recreation values of the Kromme River Estuary, a popular estuary along South Africa’s east coast. This valuation methodology allows for the identification of preferred management strategies through the trade-offs made by estuarine recreational users. It is found that the level of navigability is the most important predictor of user choice, and argued that more attention needs to be paid than is being to options for improving navigability and methods to fund these interventions. It is concluded that an increase in license fee of R437 would improve recreational value.
    Keywords: Estuary, recreational attributes, navigability, choice experiment, willingness-to-pay, conditional logit model, random parameters logit model
    Date: 2013
  25. By: Takahashi, Ryo; Todo, Yasuyuki
    Abstract: In recent years, shade coffee certification programs have attracted increased attention from conservation and development organizations. The certification programs offer an opportunity to link environmental and economic goals by providing a premium price to producers and thereby contribute to forest conservation. However, the significance of the certification program’s conservation efforts is still unclear because of the lack of empirical evidence. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the shade coffee certification program on forest conservation. The study was carried out at the Belete-Gera Regional Forest Priority Area in Ethiopia, and remote sensing data from 2005 and 2010 was used to gauge the change of the forest area. Employing the propensity score matching estimation, we found that forests under the coffee certification were less likely to be deforested than forests without forest coffee. By contrast, the difference in the degree of deforestation between forests with forest coffee but not under the certification program and forests with no forest coffee is statistically insignificant. These results suggest that the certification program had a large impact on forest protection, decreasing the probability of deforestation by 1.7 percentage points.
    Keywords: shade coffee , coffee certification , impact evaluation , remote sensing , Ethiopia
    Date: 2013–03–14
  26. By: Peter Boone; Ila Fazzio; Kameshwari Jandhyala; Chitra Jayanty; Gangadhar Jayanty; Simon Johnson; Vimala Ramachandrin; Filipa Silva; Zhaoguo Zhan
    Abstract: We conducted a survey covering 20% of villages with 200-1000 population in rural Guinea-Bissau. We interviewed household heads, care-givers of children, and their teachers and schools. We analysed results from 9,947 children, aged 7-17, tested for literacy and numeracy competency. Only 27% of children were able to add two single digits, and just 19% were able to read and comprehend a simple word. Our unannounced school checks found 72% of enrolled children in grades 1-4 attending their schools, but the schools were poorly equipped. Teachers were present at 86% of schools visited. Despite surveying 351 schools, we found no examples of successful schools where children reached reasonable levels of literacy and numeracy for age. Our evidence suggests that interventions that raise school quality in these villages, rather than those which target enrollment, may be most important to generate very sharp improvements in children's educational outcomes.
    JEL: F35 H43 I2 O1 O55
    Date: 2013–04
  27. By: Tessa Bold; Mwangi Kimenyi; Germano Mwabu; Alice Ng'ang'a; Justin Sandefur
    Abstract: The recent wave of randomized trials in development economics has provoked criticisms regarding external validity. We investigate two concerns – heterogeneity across beneficiaries and implementers – in a randomized trial of contract teachers in Kenyan schools. The intervention, previously shown to raise test scores in NGO-led trials in Western Kenya and parts of India, was replicated across all Kenyan provinces by an NGO and the government. Strong effects of short-term contracts produced in controlled experimental settings are lost in weak public institutions: NGO implementation produces a positive effect on test scores across diverse contexts, while government implementation yields zero effect. The data suggests that the stark contrast in success between the government and NGO arm can be traced back to implementation constraints and political economy forces put in motion as the program went to scale.
    Date: 2013
  28. By: Mark E. McGovern (Harvard School of Public Health); Till Bärnighausen (Harvard School of Public Health); Joshua A. Salomon (Harvard School of Public Health); David Canning (Harvard School of Public Health)
    Abstract: Selection bias in HIV prevalence estimates occurs if refusal to test is correlated with HIV status. Interviewer identity is plausibly correlated with consenting to test, but not with HIV status, allowing a Heckman-type correction that produces consistent HIV prevalence estimates. We innovate on existing approaches by showing that an interviewer random effects Bayesian estimator produces prevalence estimates that are unbiased as well as consistent. An additional advantage of this new estimator is that it allows the construction of bootstrapped standard errors. It is also easily implemented in standard statistical software. The model is used to produce new estimates and confidence intervals for HIV prevalence among men in Zambia and Ghana.
    Keywords: HIV, Heckman Selection Models, Missing Data, Bayesian Estimation
    Date: 2013–04
  29. By: Adawo, Monday A.; Effiong, Ekpeno L.
    Abstract: How well does the monetary exchange rate model explain exchange rate behaviour in Nigeria? Using the Johansen -Juselius (1990) and Johansen (1991) cointegration technique, this paper examines the long-run validity of the monetary exchange rate model in Nigeria for the flexible exchange rate regime with quarterly data covering the period 1987 to 2008. We found a unique long-run relationship between the nominal exchange rate and the traditional monetary fundamentals (money supply, output and interest rate differentials). The estimated cointegrating coefficients are theoretically consistent with the monetary model and statistically significant exception of the output differential. In particular, this evidence supports strongly the validity of the monetary exchange rate model for Nigeria and also its relevance to modelling the naira-US dollar exchange rate movement.
    Keywords: Exchange rate; Monetary fundamentals; Monetary exchange rate model; Cointegration; Nigeria
    JEL: C22 C32 E4 F31 F41
    Date: 2013–02–05
  30. By: Holvoet, Nathalie; Inberg, Liesbeth; Sikirime, Susan
    Abstract: In the context of the Paris Declaration and sector wide approaches (SWAps), the need to invest in well-functioning national health sector monitoring and evaluation (M&E) systems is widely acknowledged. Regardless of the approach adopted, an important first step in any strategy for capacity development is to diagnose the quality of existing systems or arrangements, taking into account both the supply and demand sides of M&E. As no standardized M&E diagnostic instrument currently exists, we invested in the development of an assessment tool for sector M&E systems. In order to counter the criticism that M&E is often narrowed down to a focus on technicalities, our diagnostic tool assesses the quality of M&E systems according to six dimensions: i) policy; ii) indicators, data collection and methodology; iii) organisation (further divided into iiia: structure, and iiib: linkages); iv) capacity; v) participation of non-government actors; and vi) use of M&E outputs. We have applied this checklist to M&E arrangements in e.g. the education and health sectors of Uganda. The outcomes of these two assessments are compared in this paper. As we aim to explore the underlying institutions and contextual factors that influence M&E in Uganda, and more specifically M&E in the education and health sectors, we draw upon the insights from the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework to structure our analysis.
    Keywords: Uganda; monitoring and evaluation; health; education
    Date: 2013–04
  31. By: Winkler, Deborah
    Abstract: Using newly collected survey data on direct supplier-multinational linkages in Chile, Ghana, Kenya, Lesotho, Mozambique, Swaziland, and Vietnam, this paper first evaluates whether foreign investors differ from domestic producers in terms of their potential to generate positive spillovers for local suppliers. It finds that foreign firms outperform domestic producers on several indicators, but have fewer linkages with the local economy and offer less supplier assistance, resulting in offsetting effects on the spillover potential. The paper also studies the relationship between foreign investor characteristics and linkages with the local economy as well as assistance extended to local suppliers. It finds that foreign investor characteristics matter for both. The paper also examines the role of suppliers'absorptive capacities in determining the intensity of their linkages with multinationals. The results indicate that several supplier characteristics matter, but these effects also depend on the length of the supplier relationship. Finally, the paper assesses whether assistance or requirements from a multinational influence spillovers on suppliers. The results confirm the existence of positive effects of assistance (including technical audits, joint product development, and technology licensing) on foreign direct investment spillovers, while the analysis finds no evidence of demand effects.
    Keywords: Microfinance,Foreign Direct Investment,Emerging Markets,Debt Markets,Markets and Market Access
    Date: 2013–04–01
  32. By: Claire Bernard (EHESS, IRD, UMR DIAL); Sandrine Mesplé-Somps (DIAL, IRD, Paris); Gilles Spielvogel (UMR Développement et Société, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)
    Abstract: This paper uses exhaustive individual-level data from the Malian 1976, 1987 and 1998 censuses to analyze the urbanization process and economic specialization of cities in Mali. We first construct an exhaustive panel data set of the 10,000 Malian localities. In order to analyze urban areas that make sense from an economic point of view, we develop a consistent method to construct functional urban agglomerations, based on a density threshold for contiguous localities. Our definition of "cities" therefore abstracts from any administrative criteria. These data enable us to study the dynamics of the complete distribution of urban and rural localities from 1976 to 1998. We show that the urbanization process in Mali is mainly due to the spatial extension and population growth of Bamako, the capital city and to the demographic growth of small rural market towns. Consequently, the density of the Malian urban system is very low and urban primacy very high. We then turn to an econometric analysis of the determinants of non-agricultural employment growth between 1987 and 1998 by locality. We focus on two main factors: population density, which may induce agglomeration externalities that attract workers and firms; and the degree of specialization of economic activities that could capture industry level externalities. Controlling for a range of other characteristics like distance to the road network, administrative status, physical geography, and rainfall shocks, we show that total employment has been spreading out mainly due to the spreading out of primary employment. Primary sector dynamic is impacted by market access. Services and industry jobs cluster in cities and small towns, due mainly to public infrastructure amenities rather than urbanization externalities or sectoral externalities, the latter being not significant and the former significant but weak. _________________________________ A partir de données exhaustives des recensements maliens de la population de 1976, 1987 et 1998, cette étude analyse le processus d’urbanisation et de spécialisation économique des 10 000 localités maliennes. Grâce à un travail d’appariement minutieux, rarement entrepris même dans les pays développés, nous constituons un panel de l’ensemble des localités et nous définissons les agglomérations urbaines en fonction de leurs tailles, densités et contiguïtés. Nous montrons que le Mali est un pays où la concentration des populations s’est opérée prioritairement à Bamako et dans des petits bourgs ruraux et que son tissu urbain est très peu dense. La primatialité du système urbain est alors très élevée. L’analyse de la dynamique de l’emploi révèle que le processus d’urbanisation du Mali s’accompagne plutôt d’un processus de dispersion spatiale des emplois. Cependant, on observe que la croissance des emplois des branches secondaire et tertiaire au sein des villes et des bourgs ruraux de plus de 1 000 habitants dépend positivement de la taille des marchés. Les villes maliennes et leurs concentrations d’habitants permettent donc un dynamisme plus important de l’emploi dans les branches non agricoles. On observe que les zones d’expansion de la culture du coton sont les zones où la croissance démographique des localités est plus forte, sans pour autant que cela occasionne un dynamisme plus important de l’emploi non agricole.
    Keywords: urbanization, agglomeration, Mali,Secteur informel, marché du travail, Vietnam, crise financière internationale, politiques publiques.
    JEL: R11 R12 O18 O55
    Date: 2012–11
  33. By: Badibanga, Thaddée; Ragasa, Catherine; Ulimwengu, John M.
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the effectiveness of local-level (territory) multistakeholder platforms using data from 55 CARGs in 23 randomly selected territories in three provinces (Bandundu, Bas-Congo, and Kinshasa) of the DRC. The first CARG was established in 2008, and the survey was conducted three years later, from August to October 2011.
    Keywords: multistakeholder governance; Agricultural policies; Participatory development; Participation;,
    Date: 2013
  34. By: Christiaensen, Luc; De Weerdt, Joachim; Todo, Yasuyuki
    Abstract: A rather unique panel tracking more than 3,300 individuals from households in rural Kagera, Tanzania during 1991/4-2010 shows that about one in two individuals/households who exited poverty did so by transitioning from agriculture into the rural nonfarm economy or secondary towns. Only one in seven exited poverty by migrating to a large city, although those moving to a city experienced on average faster consumption growth. Further analysis of a much larger cross-country panel of 51 developing countries cannot reject that rural diversification and secondary town development lead to more inclusive growth patterns than metropolitization. Indications are that this follows because more of the poor find their way to the rural nonfarm economy and secondary towns, than to distant cities. The development discourse would benefit from shifting beyond the rural-urban dichotomy and focusing instead more on how best to urbanize and develop the rural nonfarm economy and secondary towns.
    Keywords: Rural Poverty Reduction,Regional Economic Development,Achieving Shared Growth,Population Policies
    Date: 2013–04–01
  35. By: Verwimp, Philip; Van Bavel, Jan
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of exposure to violent conflict on human capital accumulation in Burundi. It combines a nationwide household survey with secondary sources on the location and timing of the conflict. Only 20 percent of the birth cohorts studied (1971-1986) completed primary education. Depending on the specification, the probability of completing primary schooling for a boy exposed to violent conflict declines by 7 to 17 percentage points compared to a nonexposed boy, with a decline of 11 percentage points in the preferred specification. In addition, exposure to violent conflict reduces the gender gap in schooling, but only for girls from nonpoor households. Forced displacement is one of the channels through which conflict affects schooling. The results are robust to various specifications and estimation methods.
    Keywords: Post Conflict Reconstruction,Education For All,Population Policies,Rural Poverty Reduction,Primary Education
    Date: 2013–04–01

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