nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2013‒03‒02
seventeen papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. The Legacy of Historical Conflict Evidence from Africa By Timothy Besley and Marta Reynal-Querol
  2. Big Constraints or Small Returns? Explaining Nonadoption of Hybrid Maize in Tanzania By Kathage, Jonas; Qaim, Matin; Kassie, Menale; Shiferaw, Bekele A.
  3. Weight calculations for panel surveys with sub-sampling and split-off tracking By Himelein, Kristen
  4. Competition, Industrial structure and Economic Growth By J.W. Fedderke
  5. South African food security and climate change: Agriculture futures By Dube, Sikhalazo; Scholes, Robert J.; Nelson, Gerald C.; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Palazzo, Amanda
  6. Trend Shocks and Economic Development By Claude Francis Naoussi; Fabien Tripier
  7. Missing Women: Age and Disease: A Correction By Stephan Klasen; Sebastian Vollmer
  8. Using a choice experiment to manage the excess demand challenges facing the Sundays River Estuary recreational fishery in South Africa By Deborah E. Lee, Stephen G. Hosking and Mario Du Preez
  9. Conditional cooperation among the poor: a new profile? By Jonathan Gheyssens; Isabel Günther
  10. A chameleon called debt relief By Cassimon, Danny; Essers, Dennis
  11. The Prevalence of Poverty and Inequality in South Sudan: The Case of Renk County By Ahmed, Adam; Roghim, Somaia; Saleh, Ali; Siddig, Khalid H.A.
  12. Dynamic fiscal impact of the debt relief initiatives on african heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs) By Danny Cassimon; Marin Ferry; Marc Raffinot; Bjorn Van Campenhout
  13. Self-reported health care seeking behavior in rural Ethiopia: Evidence from clinical vignettes By Mebratie, A.D.; Van de Poel, E.; Debebe, Z.Y.; Abebaw, D.; Alemu, G.; Bedi, A.S.
  14. The income lever and the allocation of aid By Ceriani, Lidia; Verme, Paolo
  15. Using provider performance incentives to increase HIV testing and counseling services in Rwanda By de Walque, Damien; Gertler, Paul J; Bautista-Arredondo, Sergio; Kwan, Ada; Vermeersch, Christel; de Dieu Bizimana, Jean; Binagwaho, Agnes; Condo, Jeanine
  16. The Origins of Social Contracts: Attitudes toward Taxation in Urban Nigeria. By Cristina Bodea; Adrienne LeBas
  17. Republic of Mozambique: Fifth Review Under The Policy Support Instrument And Request For Modification Of Assessment Criteria By International Monetary Fund

  1. By: Timothy Besley and Marta Reynal-Querol
    Abstract: This paper exploits variation between and within countries to examine the legacy of recorded conflicts in Africa in the pre-colonial period between 1400 and 1700. There are three main findings. First, we show that historical conflict is correlated with a greater prevalence of post-colonial con.ict. Second, historical conflict is correlated with lower levels of trust, a stronger sense of ethnic identity and a weaker sense of national identity across countries. Third, historical conflict is negatively correlated with subsequent patterns of development within countries.
    Keywords: Conflict, Trust, Identity
    JEL: N47 O43 O55
    Date: 2013
  2. By: Kathage, Jonas; Qaim, Matin; Kassie, Menale; Shiferaw, Bekele A.
    Abstract: Modern technologies are often not widely adopted among smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa. Several adoption constraints have been discussed in the literature, including limited access to information. Using survey data from farmers in Tanzania and the average treatment effect framework, we question the hypothesis that limited information is an important constraint for the adoption of hybrid maize technology. While we find an adoption gap from incomplete awareness exposure, this gap is sizeable only in the east of Tanzania, where productivity effects of hybrids are small. In the north, where adoption is much more beneficial, almost all farmers are already aware of hybrids. The results suggest that exposure to a new technology may be a function of expected returns to adoption. We also test for other constraints related to credit and risk, which do not determine adoption significantly. More generally, nonadoption of technologies is not always a sign of constraints but may also indicate low benefits. Some policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: farm survey, technology adoption, hybrid maize, Tanzania, Community/Rural/Urban Development, International Development, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, O13, O33, Q12, Q16,
    Date: 2013–02
  3. By: Himelein, Kristen
    Abstract: The Living Standards Measurement Study -- Integrated Surveys on Agriculture project collects agricultural and livelihood data in seven countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. In order to maintain representativeness as much as possible over multiple rounds of data collection, a sub-sample of households are selected to have members that have left the household tracked and interviewed in their new location with their new household members. Since the sub-sampling occurs at the level of the household but tracking occurs at the level of the individual, a number of issues arise with the correct calculation for the sub-sampling and attrition corrections. This paper is based on the panel weight calculations for the initial rounds of the Integrated Surveys on Agriculture surveys in Uganda and Tanzania, and describes the methodology used for calculating the weight components related to sub-sampling, tracking, and attrition, as well as the criteria used for trimming and post-stratification. It also addresses complications resulting from members previously classified as having attrited from the sample returning in later rounds.
    Keywords: Housing&Human Habitats,Small Area Estimation Poverty Mapping,Science Education,Scientific Research&Science Parks,Statistical&Mathematical Sciences
    Date: 2013–02–01
  4. By: J.W. Fedderke
    Abstract: This paper takes as its starting point established findings on industrial conduct as measured by pricing power in South African industry. The South African findings are contrasted with recent results derived from firm-level data from China and India. A stark contrast emerges between China, with low mark-ups of price over marginal cost of production, and South Africa and India with high mark-ups. Given the impact of pricing power on productivity growth, we show that lack of competitive pressure in the manufacturing sector, contributes one important explanation of why China has a relatively large, while South Africa and India have a relatively small manufacturing sector. We also provide an estimate of foregone employment opportunities due to the presence of pricing power has carried for South Africa. We provide a framework in terms of which the impact of success of potential policy intervention in the labour market can be assessed, given the findings on industrial structure. Returning to Chinese firm level data, we also examine whether there is a case to be made for differential policy treatment of established, new entrant, and struggling firms - and find that there is little evidence to support such a claim. For China we find that state intervention in the manufacturing sector has primarily served to suppress pricing power. We conclude with reflections on competitive pressures in other sectors of the economy, as well as final inferences on desirable policy interventions designed to stimulate growth and employment creation.
    Keywords: Competition, Industrial Structure, Economic Growth, South Africa, India, Industry
    Date: 2013
  5. By: Dube, Sikhalazo; Scholes, Robert J.; Nelson, Gerald C.; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Palazzo, Amanda
    Abstract: The projected changes in planted area, yield per area, net exports/imports and priced for five major agricultural crops in South Africa were simulated using the projections of four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three socio-economic scenarios. The GCM runs were those undertaken for the IPCC fourth assessment report. They show consistent strong warming over the subcontinent, but disagree with respect to future precipitation, from slight wetting (particularly on the eastern side) to overall slight drying. The future crop yields were simulated using the DSSAT crop model suite. The planted area, commodity prices and net exports were simulated using the IMPACT global food trade model. The results indicate slightly rising to stable yields per unit area up to 2050, despite climate change, largely due to the inbuilt assumption of ongoing agronomic and genetic improvements. The planted area remains fairly constant in both location and size. As a result of increasing food demand, net exports decline (i.e. imports increase) substantially, and so do prices due to simultaneous increases in global demand. The effects on food security in South Africa, measured as average calorific intake per person and malnutrition in children under the age of five, depends more on the assumptions regarding population and GDP growth than on climate change, since the study assumes that local shortages will be balanced by increased imports, if they are affordable. Thus the vulnerability to food insecurity at family and national level increases in the future under all but the most optimistic development scenarios, and is exacerbated by climate change, especially through global-scale, market-related mechanisms. Policies to increase local agricultural production, decrease its climate sensitivity and facilitate access to international markets are indicated, along with efforts to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. --
    Keywords: climate change,crop production,scenarios,food security,futures,modeling
    JEL: Q55 Q18
    Date: 2013
  6. By: Claude Francis Naoussi; Fabien Tripier
    Abstract: This article explores the role of trend shocks in explaining the specificities of business cycles in developing countries using the methodology introduced by Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) [“Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend” Journal of Political Economy 115(1)]. We specify a small open economy model with transitory and trend shocks on productivity to replicate the differences in the business cycle behavior observed between developed, emerging, and Sub-Saharan Africa countries. Our results suggest a strong relationship between the weight of trend shocks in the source of fluctuations and the level of economic development. The weight of trend shocks is (i) higher in Sub-Saharan Africa countries than in emerging and developed countries, (ii) negatively correlated with the level of income, the quality of institutions, and the size of the credit market, and (iii) uncorrelated with the volatility of aid received by countries, the inflation rate, and the trend in trade-openness.
    Keywords: Business Cycle;Permanent shocks;Growth;Africa;Small open economy
    JEL: E32 F41 O55
    Date: 2013–01
  7. By: Stephan Klasen (Georg-August-University Göttingen); Sebastian Vollmer (Georg-August-University Göttingen)
    Abstract: In a recent paper in the Review of Economic Studies, Siwan Anderson and Debraj Ray (Anderson and Ray, 2010) develop and apply a new ‘flow’ measure of ‘missing women’ to estimate the extent of gender bias in mortality in developing countries. Contrary to the existing literature, they find that the problem of gender bias in mortality is as severe among adults as it is among children in India, that gender bias in mortality is larger in Sub‐Saharan Africa than in China and India, and that there was substantial evidence of gender bias in mortality in the US around 1900. These latter results are driven largely by the finding of substantial gender bias among adults. We show first that the data for Sub‐Saharan Africa used in the paper are generated by simulations in ways that deliver their findings on Africa (and the US in 1900) by construction. Second, we show that the analysis is entirely dependent on a highly implausible reference standard that is inappropriately applied to settings where the overall disease and mortality environment differ greatly; the attempt to control for the disease environment by the authors is not able to address these issues. When a more appropriate reference standard is used, most of the new findings of Anderson and Ray disappear. Instead, the findings from the existing literature relying on stock measures of missing women are confirmed. The one finding that remains and deserves further attention is some evidence of gender bias in mortality among young adults in Africa (though of much lower magnitude than suggested by Anderson and Ray).
    Keywords: Missing women; gender bias; mortality; disease; age; Sub‐Saharan Africa; China; India
    JEL: J16 D63 I10
    Date: 2013–02–13
  8. By: Deborah E. Lee, Stephen G. Hosking and Mario Du Preez
    Abstract: The Sundays River Estuary, situated in the Eastern Cape, South Africa, has excess recreational demand for estuarine services, specifically recreational fishing. The estuary has been over-fished, putting its sustainability at risk. Various management interventions may be required in order to save it, but how is this to be done without reducing welfare. This paper reports the application of a choice experiment to guide this very issue. It is found that the physical size of fish stocks is a very important predictor of recreational choice at the Sundays River Estuary, and it is recommended that demand be curtailed through an increase in the boat license fee for using the estuary of R174 per annum.
    Keywords: Estuary, demand management, recreational attributes, recreational fishery, choice experiment
    Date: 2013
  9. By: Jonathan Gheyssens (ETH Zürich); Isabel Günther (ETH Zürich)
    Abstract: On the basis of a conditional contribution experiment conducted in Benin and Uganda, we argue that a conditional u-shaped profile exists, at least in poor communities. Under this profile, individuals invest considerably in public goods when nobody else does, reduce their commitment in reaction to positive group participation and turn into conditional cooperators after a threshold of others’ participation is reached. For the understanding of the dynamics of repeated cooperation the implications of this group of u-shaped cooperators might be important.
    Keywords: Conditional cooperation; Public goods; Experiments; sub-Saharan Africa
    Date: 2013–02–22
  10. By: Cassimon, Danny; Essers, Dennis
    Abstract: This paper critically reviews three decades of official creditors’ debt relief practice in Sub-Saharan Africa from a novel angle, i.e. along debt relief’s similarities with other aid modalities. We show that debt relief is a true ‘chameleon’ which mimics different sorts of aid, from traditional project aid to multi-year general budget support. The ‘colour’ of this chameleon depends on the embedded conditionality, alignment and the budgetary resource effect of particular debt relief interventions. We argue that characterising debt relief from an aid modality perspective is helpful in better understanding its widely varying performance track record and holds important policy lessons for designing future operations.
    Keywords: debt relief; HIPC; MDRI; aid modalities; budget support; Sub-Saharan Africa
    JEL: F34 F35
    Date: 2013–02
  11. By: Ahmed, Adam; Roghim, Somaia; Saleh, Ali; Siddig, Khalid H.A.
    Abstract: In this study we use a comprehensive household income and expenditure survey with a sample of 245 respondents representing urban and rural households in the Renk County of South Sudan to assess the prevalence of poverty and inequality in the study area. We used the cost of basic needs; to establish both food poverty line and Poverty line; estimated poverty incidence, gap and severity; and estimated different equality measures. Major results show that 87% and 73% of the urban and rural households respectively fall below our calculated poverty lines. The estimated Gini coefficient was 18% and 20% for urban and rural households, respectively. Results of other equality measures show higher inequality between the poorest and richest segments of households as the richest quintile among urban households consumes 5 times that of the poorest, while that of the rural households consumes 4 4 folds the poorest quintile.
    Keywords: Poverty, Inequality, South Sudan., Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Production Economics, D6, I3, P4, Q12.,
    Date: 2013–01–27
  12. By: Danny Cassimon (University of Antwerp); Marin Ferry (LEDa, UMR DIAL-Paris-Dauphine); Marc Raffinot (LEDa, UMR DIAL-Paris-Dauphine); Bjorn Van Campenhout (International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI))
    Abstract: (english) After two debt relief initiatives launched in 1996 (the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries, HIPC Initiative) and in 1999 (The enhanced HIPC initiative), the G7 decided to go further by cancelling the remaining multilateral debt for these HIPC countries through the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI, 2005). A few papers tried to assess the desired fiscal response effects of those initiatives. This paper uses an extended dataset and alternative econometric techniques in order to tackle methodological issues as endogeneity and fixed effects. We found that debt relief and especially the enhanced HIPC initiative have had a positive impact on the total domestic revenue and the public investment (as percentages of the GDP). Thanks to our large observation span, we also observed that the MDRI led to a significant additional improvement of the level of public investment and domestic revenues ratio, although these effects are smaller than the HIPCs ones. _________________________________ (français) Après deux initiatives de réduction de dette (PPTE I fin 1996 et PPTE II en 1999), le G7 décida d’annuler la totalité de la dette multilatérale (Initiative d’Annulation de la Dette Multilatérale, IADM en 2005). Quelques travaux ont essayé d’évaluer l’impact de ces mesures sur les finances publiques des pays bénéficiaires. Ce travail utilise une base de données plus étendue et des méthodes économétriques alternatives pour tenir compte de l’endogénéïté et des effets fixes. Nous trouvons que les réductions de dette (en particulier l’initiative PPTE II) ont eu un impact positif sur la pression fiscale et sur les investissements publics (en pourcentage du PIB). Grâce à l’extension de la période d’étude, nous observons également que l’IADM a un effet similaire, quoique moins persistent.
    Keywords: HIPC, MDRI, Debt relief, Fiscal revenue, Public investment, Fiscal response.
    JEL: H20 H54 H63 O55 F34
    Date: 2013–01
  13. By: Mebratie, A.D.; Van de Poel, E.; Debebe, Z.Y.; Abebaw, D.; Alemu, G.; Bedi, A.S.
    Abstract: Between 2000 and 2011, Ethiopia rapidly expanded its health-care infrastructure recording an 18-fold increase in the number of health posts and a 7-fold increase in the number of health centers. However, annual per capita outpatient utilization has increased only marginally. The extent to which individuals forego necessary health care, especially why and who foregoes care are issues that have received little attention in the context of low-income countries. This paper uses five clinical vignettes covering a range of context-specific child and adult-related diseases to explore the health-seeking behavior of rural Ethiopian households. We find almost universal preference for modern care. There is a systematic relationship between socioeconomic status and choice of providers mainly for adult-related conditions with households in higher consumption quintiles more likely to seek care in health centers, private/NGO clinics as opposed to health posts. Similarly, delays in care-seeking behavior are apparent mainly for adult-related conditions. The differences in care seeking behavior between adult and child related conditions may be attributed to the recent spread of health posts which have focused on raising awareness of maternal and child health. Overall, the analysis suggests that the lack of health-care utilization is not driven by the inability to recognize health problems or due to a low perceived need for modern care but due to other factors.
    Keywords: Ethiopia;clinical vignettes;foregone care;health care seeking behavior
    Date: 2013–02–04
  14. By: Ceriani, Lidia; Verme, Paolo
    Abstract: The paper develops a concept and a measure of the monetary capacity of a country to reduce its own poverty and shows how these tools can be used to guide budget allocations or the allocation of aid. The authors call this concept the income lever. Making use of tax and distributive theory, the paper shows how different redistributive criteria correspond to the different normative criteria of the income lever. It then constructs various income lever indexes based on these criteria and uses such indexes to rank countries according to their own capacity to reduce poverty. As shown in the empirical application, this methodology can provide an equitable tool to rank countries or regions when it comes to budget or aid allocations, whether it is the allocation of social funds within the European Union (North-North transfers) or the allocation of aid from rich to poor countries (North-South transfers). The findings indicate that the allocation of social funds in the European Union follows closely the rank that results from the income lever indexes proposed while the allocation of aid to Sub-Saharan African countries does not.
    Keywords: Regional Economic Development,Rural Poverty Reduction,Services&Transfers to Poor,Achieving Shared Growth,Economic Conditions and Volatility
    Date: 2013–02–01
  15. By: de Walque, Damien; Gertler, Paul J; Bautista-Arredondo, Sergio; Kwan, Ada; Vermeersch, Christel; de Dieu Bizimana, Jean; Binagwaho, Agnes; Condo, Jeanine
    Abstract: Paying for performance provides financial rewards to medical care providers for improvements in performance measured by specific utilization and quality of care indicators. In 2006, Rwanda began a paying for performance scheme to improve health services delivery, including HIV/AIDS services. This study examines the scheme's impact on individual and couples HIV testing and counseling and using data from a prospective quasi-experimental design. The study finds a positive impact of paying for performance with an increase of 6.1 percentage points in the probability of individuals having ever been tested. This positive impact is stronger for married individuals: 10.2 percentage points. The results also indicate larger impacts of paying for performance on the likelihood that the respondent reports both partners have ever been tested, especially among discordant couples (14.7 percentage point increase) in which only one of the partners is HIV positive.
    Keywords: Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Disease Control&Prevention,Population Policies,Health Systems Development&Reform,HIV AIDS
    Date: 2013–02–01
  16. By: Cristina Bodea; Adrienne LeBas
    Abstract: How do social contracts come into being? This paper argues that norm adoption plays an important and neglected role in this process. Using novel data from urban Nigeria, we examine why individuals adopt norms favoring a citizen obligation to pay tax where state enforcement is weak. We find that public goods delivery by the state produces the willingness to pay tax, but community characteristics also have a strong and independent effect on both social contract norms and actual tax payment. Individuals are less likely to adopt pro-tax norms if they have access to community provision of security and other services. In conflict-prone communities, where “self-help” provision of club goods is less effective, individuals are more likely to adopt social contract norms. Finally, we show that social contract norms substantially boost tax payment. This paper has broad implications for literatures on state formation, taxation, clientelism, and public goods provision.
    Date: 2013
  17. By: International Monetary Fund
    Keywords: Policy Support Instrument;Economic growth;Fiscal policy;Infrastructure;Natural resources;Public investment;Balance of payments;Monetary policy;Economic indicators;Staff Reports;Press releases;Performance criteria modifications;Mozambique;
    Date: 2013–01–04

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