nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2013‒01‒07
33 papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. The Rising Class of Emergent Farmers: An Effective Model for Achieving Agricultural Growth and Poverty Reduction in Africa? By Sitko, Nicholas J.; Jayne, Thomas S.
  2. A Short-run Schumpeterian Trip to Embryonic African Monetary Zones By Simplice A, Asongu
  3. Does Intra-Africa Regional Trade Cooperation Enhance Africa’s Export Survival? By Dick Nuwamanya Kamuganga
  4. The impact of liberalisation policies on income inequality in african countries By Enowbi Batuo, Michael; A. Asongu, Simplice
  5. What Drives Africa`s Export Diversification? By Dick Nuwamanya Kamuganga
  6. War and Stature: Growing Up During the Nigerian Civil War By Richard Akresh; Sonia Bhalotra; Marinella Leone; Una Osili
  7. The gap between school enrolments and population in South Africa: Analysis of the possible explanations By Martin Gustafsson
  8. Armed Conflict, Household Victimization, and Child Health in Côte d'Ivoire By Camelia Minoiu; Olga N. Shemyakina
  9. Employment Generation in Rural Africa: Mid-term Results from an Experimental Evaluation of the Youth Opportunities Program in Northern Uganda By Christopher Blattman; Nathan Fiala; Sebastian Martinez
  10. Financial instability, financial openness and economic growth in african countries By Batuo Enowbi, Michael; Kupukile, Mlambo
  11. Zambian Smallholder Behavioral Responses To Food Reserve Agency Activities (Revised Version) By Mason, Nicole M.; Jayne, Thomas S.; Myers, Robert J.
  12. Working Paper 163 - Food Prices and Inflation in Tanzania By AfDB
  13. Estimating the Causal Effects of War on Education in Côte D’Ivoire By Andrew L. Dabaleno; Saumik Paul
  14. Smallholder Farmers Participation in Livestock Markets: The Case of Zambian Farmers. By Lubungu, Mary; Chapoto, Antony; Tembo, Gelson
  15. Causes of Civil War: Micro Level Evidence from Côte d’Ivoire By Andrew L. Dabalen; Ephraim Kebede; Saumik Paul
  16. Learning from the experiments that never happened : lessons from trying to conduct randomized evaluations of matching grant programs in Africa By Campos, Francisco; Coville, Aidan; Fernandes, Ana M.; Goldstein, Markus; McKenzie, David
  17. The Persistence of Subjective Poverty in Urban Ethiopia By Alem, Yonas; Köhlin, Gunnar; Stage, Jesper
  18. Integrating Soil Sciences into Agricultural Production Frontiers By Ekbom, Anders; Alem, Yonas; Sterner, Thomas
  19. Gender Control and Labour Input: Who Controls the Proceeds from Staple Crop Production among Zambian Farmers? By Shipekesa, Arthur M.; Jayne, Thomas S.
  20. Nutrition, Governance and Violence: A Framework for the Analysis of Resilience and Vulnerability to Food Insecurity in Contexts of Violent Conflict By Patricia Justino
  21. Life Satisfaction in Urban Ethiopia: Trends and determinants By Alem, Yonas; Köhlin, Gunnar
  22. Repercussions of Fertilizer Subsidy Programs on Private Sector Input Retailers: Evidence from Malawi and Proposal for Further Research By Fitzpatrick, Natalie Bess
  23. Is the Government of Zambia’s Subsidy to Maize Millers Benefiting Consumers? By Kuteya, Auckland N.; Jayne, Thomas S.
  24. Living Within Conflicts: Risk of Violence and Livelihood Portfolios By Marc Rockmore
  25. Climate change adaptation in Ethiopia: to what extent does social protection influence livelihood diversification? By Prowse, Martin; Weldegebriel, Zerihune Berhane
  26. Organic Certification, Agro-Ecological Practices and Return on Investment: Farm Level Evidence from Ghana By Linda Kleemann; Awudu Abdulai
  27. Seeds of Distrust: Conflict in Uganda By Dominic Rohner; Mathias Thoenig; Fabrizio Zilibotti
  28. The nature of volatility in temporal profit with in Ethiopian commodity exchange: The case of washed export coffee modelled using ARFIMA-M-HYGARCH model By Mezgebo, Taddese
  29. Returning Home after Civil War: The Consequences of Forced Displacement for Food Security, Nutrition and Poverty among Burundese Households By Philip Verwimp
  30. On the fungibility of spending and earnings -- evidence from rural China and Tanzania By Christiaensen , Luc; Pan, Lei
  31. Monetary versus non-monetary pro-poor growth: Evidence from rural Ethiopia between 2004 and 2009 By Kacem, Rami Ben Haj
  32. War, Health, and Educational Attainment: A Panel of Children during Burundi’s Civil War By Tom Bundervoet
  33. KIs grade repetition one of the causes of early school dropout? Evidence from Senegalese primary schools. By Pierre André

  1. By: Sitko, Nicholas J.; Jayne, Thomas S.
    Abstract: The relative importance of small versus large farm enterprises in driving agricultural production growth and poverty reduction is a central development debate in Africa. More broadly this debate revolves around questions of farm land intensification versus extensification as the most effective means for addressing the persistent issues of food insecurity and hunger in Africa. On the one hand, there is a well‐established literature that argues that the intensification of smallholder production is the most effective way of initiating sweeping beneficial changes in predominantly agrarian societies. One the other hand, there is a growing belief that massive constraints in African smallholder production and marketing systems make it improbable for very small farms to be engines of agricultural‐led capital accumulation, land consolation, farm expansion, and significant production gains. For them a strategy that seeks to stimulate large‐scale agriculture can more effective address the constraints to African food production.
    Keywords: Africa, Poverty Reduction, Food Security and Poverty,
    Date: 2012–10
  2. By: Simplice A, Asongu
    Abstract: With the spectre of the Euro crisis looming substantially large and scaring potential monetary unions, this study is a short-run trip to embryonic African monetary zones to assess the Schumpeterian thesis for positive spillovers of financial services on growth. Causality analysis is performed with seven financial development and three growth indicators in the proposed West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) and East African Monetary Zone (EAMZ). The journey is promising for the EAMZ and lamentable for the WAMZ. Results of the EAMZ are broadly consistent with the traditional discretionary monetary policy arrangements while those of the WAMZ are in line with the non-traditional strand of regimes in which, policy instruments in the short-run cannot be used to offset adverse shocks to output. Policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: Finance; Growth; Africa
    JEL: O55 O10 E50 G20
    Date: 2012–12–01
  3. By: Dick Nuwamanya Kamuganga (Graduate Institute of International Studies)
    Abstract: In this paper, I use a stratified Cox Proportional Hazard Model to econometrically evaluate the effects of intra-Africa regional trade cooperation and other underlying factors on Africa`s export survival. Using a highly disaggregated dataset of bilateral trade flows at HS 6 digit level for 49 African countries for the period 1995 to 2009, I obtain 3 key main empirical results. First, intra-Africa regional trade cooperation do increase the likelihood of Africa`s export survival. The results show that the depth of regional integration matters on lowering Africa`s export hazard rates relative to countries that are not in any regional cooperation. Second, I find evidence that supports the “learning by export hypothesis”. That is export experience within regional as well as rest of the world markets increases the likelihood of Africa`s export survival. Finally, results suggests that infrastructure related trade frictions such as costs to export, time to export, and customs procedures to export as well as weak export supporting institutions have a negative effect on Africa`s export survival. Similarly macroeconomic developments particularly exchange rate volatility, financial underdevelopment, “inappropriate” foreign direct investment hurt chances of an African export survival. The results also show that interaction effects between regional integration initiatives and a variety of these trade frictions namely: costs to export, time to export and customs procedures effects on hazard rates diminish in significance with the depth of regional integration over time.
    Keywords: regional integration, export survival, trade relationships
    JEL: F14 F15 C14 C41
    Date: 2012–12–13
  4. By: Enowbi Batuo, Michael; A. Asongu, Simplice
    Abstract: Despite over three decades of Liberalisation policies in Africa, income-inequality has stayed persistently high. Using updated panel data of 26 African countries spanning the period 1996-2010, this study examines the effect of liberalisation policies with particular focus on financial, trade, institutional, political and economic liberalisations on income-inequality. We find: that financial liberalisation has a levitated income-redistributive effect with the magnitude of the de jure measure (KAOPEN) higher than that of the de facto measure (FDI); that exports, trade and ‘freedom to trade’ have an equality incidence on income-distribution; and that institutional and political liberalisation has a negative impact and we also find that, economic freedom has a negative income-redistributive effect possibly because of the weight of its legal component. The impact of these policies implications are discussed in detail in this study.
    Keywords: Liberalisation Policies; Income Inequality; Poverty; Africa
    JEL: O11 F4 O55 F5 O15 C23 F3 I32
    Date: 2012–06
  5. By: Dick Nuwamanya Kamuganga (Graduate Institute of International Studies)
    Abstract: The primary purpose of this paper is to seek empirical answers to the above question. Using a highly disaggregated bilateral trade flows at HS 6 digit level for African countries for a period 1995-2009 and a conditional logit technique, I find 3 main empirical results. First, intra-Africa regional trade cooperation enhances the likelihood of an African nation exporting across the new-product, new-market margin. Second, I also find evidence that both product and market experience help to increase the chances of African exporters exporting on new-product and new market margins thus providing support for the learning effects hypothesis. The third result shows that infrastructure related trade frictions such as export costs; time to export; procedures to export as well as weak export supporting institutions have a negative effect on African export diversification. Similarly macroeconomic developments particularly exchange rate volatility, financial underdevelopments and inappropriate foreign direct investments hurt African nation’s chances to diversify its exports. In policy terms this study suggests that for African exporters learning to export from regional markets before exploring major distant markets, a reduction in intra-African trade barriers, deepening and strengthening regional trade cooperation could be a significant channel for encouraging export diversification in Africa.
    Keywords: Extensive Margin of trade, Firm Heterogeneity, unilateral trade preferences & regional trade agreements
    JEL: F1 F13 F14 F15
    Date: 2012–12–13
  6. By: Richard Akresh (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and IZA); Sonia Bhalotra (University of Bristol and IZA); Marinella Leone (University of Sussex); Una Osili (Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis)
    Abstract: The Nigerian civil war of 1967-70 was precipitated by secession of the Igbodominated south-eastern region to create the state of Biafra. It was the first civil war in Africa, the predecessor of many. We investigate the legacies of this war four decades later. Using variation across ethnicity and cohort, we identify significant long-run impacts on human health capital. Individuals exposed to the war at all ages between birth and adolescence exhibit reduced adult stature and these impacts are largest in adolescence. Adult stature is portentous of reduced life expectancy and lower earnings.
    Keywords: war, height, early life conditions, human capital investments, Nigeria
    JEL: I12 O12 J13
    Date: 2012–04
  7. By: Martin Gustafsson (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)
    Abstract: In South Africa, like in many developing countries, the differences between enrolment totals, estimated by the education authorities, and the numbers of children in the country, estimated by demographers in the national statistical agency, defy easy explanations and suggest that one or both sets of statistics are inaccurate. In South Africa the gap between the two sets of estimates is substantially larger than one would expect. The typical reasons that have been found to underlie developing country data problems of this kind are discussed and their applicability to the South African data is investigated, using a variety of data sources. It is found that not clarifying the reasons behind the data discrepancies and not making necessary adjustments lead to distortions in commonly cited international development indicators that are not insignificant. It is demonstrated that analysing the various possible reasons for unexplained gaps between enrolment and population aggregates can reveal patterns that are in general useful for education planning. For instance, comparing the educational attainment of adults to enrolment patterns for children in the household data can help to gauge the extent to which the child enrolment responses are subject to typical upward biases. The analysis as a whole highlights the importance of collaboration between the education authorities and national statistical agencies to improve data collection and imputation techniques on both sides.
    Keywords: population estimates, school enrolment, enrolment ratios, household surveys, gross enrolment ratio
    JEL: D19 I21
    Date: 2012
  8. By: Camelia Minoiu (International Monetary Fund IMF Institute); Olga N. Shemyakina (Georgia Institute of Technology School of Economics)
    Abstract: We examine the effect of the 2002-2007 civil conflict in Côte d'Ivoire on children's health status using household surveys collected before, during, and after the conflict, and information on the exact location and date of conflict events. Our identification strategy relies on exploiting both temporal and spatial variation across birth cohorts to measure children's exposure to the conflict. We find that children from regions more affected by the conflict suffered significant health setbacks compared with children from less affected regions. We further examine possible war impact mechanisms using rich data on households' experience of war from the post-conflict survey. Our results suggest that conflict-induced economic losses, health impairment, displacement, and other forms of victimization are important channels through which conflict negatively impacts child health.
    Keywords: child health, conflict, height-for-age, sub-Saharan Africa
    Date: 2012–08
  9. By: Christopher Blattman (Yale University, Departments of Political Science & Economics); Nathan Fiala (German Institute for Economic Research); Sebastian Martinez (Inter American Development Bank, Office of Strategic Planning and Development Effectiveness)
    Abstract: Can cash transfers promote employment and reduce poverty in rural Africa? Will lower youth unemployment and poverty reduce the risk of social instability? We experimentally evaluate one of Uganda’s largest development programs, which provided thousands of young people nearly unconditional, unsupervised cash transfers to pay for vocational training, tools, and business start-up costs. Mid-term results after two years suggest four main findings. First, despite a lack of central monitoring and accountability, most youth invest the transfer in vocational skills and tools. Second, the economic impacts of the transfer are large: hours of nonhousehold employment double and cash earnings increase by nearly 50% relative to the control group. We estimate the transfer yields a real annual return on capital of 35% on average. Third, the evidence suggests that poor access to credit is a major reason youth cannot start these vocations in the absence of aid. Much of the heterogeneity in impacts is unexplained, however, and is unrelated to conventional economic measures of ability, suggesting we have much to learn about the determinants of entrepreneurship. Finally, these economic gains result in modest improvements in social stability. Measures of social cohesion and community support improve mildly, by roughly 5 to 10%, especially among males, most likely because the youth becomes a net giver rather than a net taker in his kin and community network. Most strikingly, we see a 50% fall in interpersonal aggression and disputes among males, but a 50% increase among females. Neither change seems related to economic performance nor does social cohesion—a puzzle to be explored in the next phase of the study. These results suggest that increasing access to credit and capital could stimulate employment growth in rural Africa. In particular, unconditional and unsupervised cash transfers may be a more effective and cost-efficient form of large-scale aid than commonly believed. A second stage of data collection in 2012 will collect longitudinal economic impacts, additional data on political violence and behavior, and explore alternative theoretical mechanisms.
    Keywords: Cash grant, randomized control trial, credit constraints, psychological and social impacts
    JEL: O12 O15
    Date: 2012–12
  10. By: Batuo Enowbi, Michael; Kupukile, Mlambo
    Abstract: In the aftermath of the recent global financial crisis, the implication of financial liberalisation for stability and economic growth has come under increasing scrutiny. One strand of literature posits a positive relationship between financial liberalisation and economic growth and development. However, others emphasise that the link between financial liberalisation is intrinsically associated with financial instability which may be harmful to economic growth and development. In this study, we offer an empirical analysis assessing the relationship between financial instability, financial liberalisation, financial development and economic growth based on a dataset of 41 African countries spanning the years 1985-2010. The results suggest that the link between financial development and liberalisation has a positive and significant effect on financial instability but the latter has a harmful effect on economic growth, which are more pronounced in the pre- financial liberalisation periods than in the post-liberalisation.
    Keywords: Economic Growth; Financial Development; Financial instability;Africa
    JEL: G1 O55 O47 B22 O16 C33 G01
    Date: 2012–08
  11. By: Mason, Nicole M.; Jayne, Thomas S.; Myers, Robert J.
    Abstract: Only a small percentage of well-capitalized smallholders are able to sell maize to the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) and take advantage of the maize price support. For example, in the 2007/08 marketing year, only 10% of smallholders sold maize to the FRA and these households had larger landholdings, more farm assets, and higher education levels than smallholders that did not sell maize to the FRA. 2. An increase in the FRA farmgate maize price influences smallholder behavior by increasing the farmgate maize price that smallholders expect to receive at the next harvest.
    Keywords: Zambia, Smallholder, Food Security and Poverty,
    Date: 2012–11
  12. By: AfDB
    Date: 2012–12–26
  13. By: Andrew L. Dabaleno (The World Bank); Saumik Paul (Osaka University)
    Abstract: In this paper we estimate the causal effects of civil war on years of education in the context of a school-going age cohort who are exposed to armed conflict in Cote d’Ivoire. Using year and department of birth to identify an individual’s exposure to war, the difference-in-difference outcomes indicate that the average years of education for a school-going age cohort is .94 years fewer compared to an older cohort in war-affected regions. To minimize the potential bias in the estimated outcome, we further use a set of victimization indicators to identify the true effect of war. The propensity score matching estimates do not alter the main findings. In addition, the outcomes of double-robust models minimize the specification errors in the model. Moreover, we find the outcomes are robust across alternative matching methods, estimation by using subsamples and other education outcome variables. Overall, the findings across different models suggest a drop in average years of education by a range of .2 to .9 fewer years.
    Keywords: war, human capital, education, propensity score matching, evaluation, Africa
    Date: 2012–08
  14. By: Lubungu, Mary; Chapoto, Antony; Tembo, Gelson
    Abstract: Livestock production and associated products offer significant opportunities for economic growth and poverty reduction, especially among the rural farmers in Zambia and other developing countries. However, smallholder livestock producers are characterized by low levels of market participation (Negassa, Rashid, and Gebremedhin 2011). Among many reasons cited in the literature, smallholder farmers do not participate in livestock markets because of remoteness of livestock producers from the main urban market centers, and poor road infrastructure that result in high transport costs. Understanding the determinants and livestock marketing behavior of smallholder farmers will contribute to the knowledge gap in the country regarding why poverty remains high even among households owning livestock.
    Keywords: Livestock Markets, Zambia, Livestock Production/Industries,
    Date: 2012–08
  15. By: Andrew L. Dabalen (The World Bank); Ephraim Kebede (The World Bank); Saumik Paul (Osaka University)
    Abstract: A multiethnic country like Côte d’Ivoire, which was relatively stable until the late 1980s, has been mired in crisis in the last two decades and experienced large-scale violence. This paper undertakes a disaggregated analysis of the civil war at sub-national levels in Cote d’Ivoire for the period from 1998 to 2006 using: (1) nationally representative household survey data, and (2) the ACLED conflict database that contains information on the date and geographical location of conflicts. We use both the department and the sub-prefecture levels as units of analysis, and find robust evidence that ethnic diversity is significantly associated with conflicts. We also find strong empirical evidence that the share of Ivoirites population and the share of Muslim population is a significant determinant of civil war at the sub-prefecture level. Furthermore, more populous areas are at high risk of civil war, but the outcome is statistically significant only at the department level. However, we do not find significant evidence that income inequality and land inequality have determined the level of civil conflict. Overall the findings suggest ethnicity and religious identities are the significant determinants of civil war in Cote d’Ivoire.
    Keywords: Civil war; Disaggregated data; Ethnicity; GIS; Cote d’Ivoire
    Date: 2012–08
  16. By: Campos, Francisco; Coville, Aidan; Fernandes, Ana M.; Goldstein, Markus; McKenzie, David
    Abstract: Matching grants are one of the most common policy instruments used by developing country governments to try to foster technological upgrading, innovation, exports, use of business development services and other activities leading to firm growth. However, since they involve subsidizing firms, the risk is that they could crowd out private investment, subsidizing activities that firms were planning to undertake anyway, or lead to pure private gains, rather than generating the public gains that justify government intervention. As a result, rigorous evaluation of the effects of such programs is important. The authors attempted to implement randomized experiments to evaluate the impact of seven matching grant programs offered in six African countries, but in each case were unable to complete an experimental evaluation. One critique of randomized experiments is publication bias, whereby only those experiments with"interesting"results get published. The hope is to mitigate this bias by learning from the experiments that never happened. This paper describes the three main proximate reasons for lack of implementation: continued project delays, politicians not willing to allow random assignment, and low program take-up; and then delves into the underlying causes of these occurring. Political economy, overly stringent eligibility criteria that do not take account of where value-added may be highest, a lack of attention to detail in"last mile"issues, incentives facing project implementation staff, and the way impact evaluations are funded, and all help explain the failure of randomization. Lessons are drawn from these experiences for both the implementation and the possible evaluation of future projects.
    Keywords: Microfinance,Banks&Banking Reform,Access to Finance,ICT Policy and Strategies,E-Business
    Date: 2012–12–01
  17. By: Alem, Yonas (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Köhlin, Gunnar (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Stage, Jesper (Dept of Social Sciences, Mid Sweden University)
    Abstract: Using panel data spanning 15 years, this paper investigates the persistence and correlates of subjective and consumption poverty in urban Ethiopia. Despite the decline in consumption poverty in recent years, which has been linked to rapid economic growth, subjective poverty has remained largely unchanged. Dynamic probit regression results show that households with a history of past poverty continue to perceive themselves as poor even if their material consumption improves. Our results also suggest that the relative economic position of households is a strong determinant of subjective poverty, and having at least some type of employment reduces the likelihood that households will perceive themselves as poor, even if they remain in objective poverty. Receiving remittances from abroad, on the other hand, does not reduce perceived poverty, even if it raises material consumption. We argue that any analysis to measure the impact of growth on welfare should encompass subjective measures as well.<p>
    Keywords: Ethiopia; subjective poverty; dynamic probit
    JEL: I32 O12
    Date: 2012–12–19
  18. By: Ekbom, Anders (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Alem, Yonas (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Sterner, Thomas (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)
    Abstract: This paper integrates soil science variables into an economic analysis of agricultural output among small-scale farmers in Kenya’s highlands. The integration is valuable because farmers’ choice of inputs depends on both the status of the soil and socio-economic conditions. The study uses a stochastic production frontier in which the individual farm’s distance to the frontier depends systematically on individual factors. We show the importance of including key soil properties and find that phosphorus has a negative output elasticity, suggesting that farms may be using the wrong fertilizer mix. Hence, the central policy implication is that while fertilizers are generally beneficial, their application needs to be based on better soil information. This highlights the importance of strengthening agricultural extension, increased access to markets, and more diversified supply of production inputs.<p>
    Keywords: Soil analysis; stochastic production frontier; agricultural productivity
    JEL: Q02 Q12
    Date: 2012–12–19
  19. By: Shipekesa, Arthur M.; Jayne, Thomas S.
    Abstract: Because gender roles and relations are dynamic, programs built on a solid up-to-date understanding of how men and women share labor responsibilities and the proceeds from their agricultural activities have the potential to bring forth positive outcomes. Better information on gender-based constraints and intra-household power dynamics form the foundation for programs that can enhance gender equity.
    Keywords: Gender Control, Zambia, Food Security and Poverty, Labor and Human Capital,
    Date: 2012–09
  20. By: Patricia Justino (Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex)
    Abstract: We show that armed conflict affects social capital as measured by trust and associational membership. Using the case of Uganda and two rounds of nationally representative individual-level data bracketing a large number of battle events, we find that self-reported generalized trust and associational membership decreased during the conflict in districts in which battle events took place. Exploiting the different timing of two distinct waves of violence, we provide suggestive evidence for a rapid recovery of social capital. Evidence from a variety of identification strategies, including difference-indifference and instrumental variable estimates, suggests that these relationships are causal.
    Date: 2012–11
  21. By: Alem, Yonas (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Köhlin, Gunnar (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)
    Abstract: Most studies of subjective well-being in developing countries use cross-sectional data, which makes it difficult to control for unobserved individual heterogeneity. In this paper, we use three rounds of panel data and robust non-linear panel data models to investigate the trends and determinants of life satisfaction in urban Ethiopia. Although Ethiopia exhibited rapid economic growth during the analyzed period, the average reported level of life satisfaction declined. Regression results show that despite the significant difference between urban Ethiopia and industrialized countries in terms of economic and social conditions, many of the determinants of life satisfaction are similar. This includes, age, marital status, health, unemployment, economic status, relative position and educational achievement. Our results also indicate that both individual (respondent) and household level versions of these variables are important determinants of life satisfaction. This provides some evidence on the interdependence of individual and household subjective well-being in developing countries. The fact that rapid economic growth was accompanied by a decline in citizens’ average reported level of life satisfaction brings the pro-poorness of the recent economic growth in Ethiopia into question. We argue that economic growth that trickles down to the poor and ensures creation of stable jobs would be welfare enhancing.<p>
    Keywords: Life Satisfaction; Urban Ethiopia; Economic Growth; Correlated Random-Effects Ordered Probit.
    JEL: C25 D60 I31
    Date: 2012–12–19
  22. By: Fitzpatrick, Natalie Bess
    Abstract: This paper looks at the experiences of agricultural input retailers in Malawi as a result of the Agricultural Input Subsidy Program. In particular, it focuses on the impact of excluding private sector retailers from participation in the subsidy program. Using a difference-in-difference approach to modeling fertilizer sales, it attempts to evaluate how retailers who were allowed to participate for part of the duration of the program but were then excluded experienced this policy change in comparison to retailers who were not allowed to participate at any point in the program. Furthermore, by looking at survey attrition over a two-year period, this paper looks at the evidence for and against the case that the subsidy program is driving private sector retailers out of business entirely. Due to known problems with the data and the results of testing done in the process of this research, this paper goes on to discuss the ideal methods that could produce the data needed to more accurately and comprehensively address the questions discussed in the first parts of the paper.
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries,
    Date: 2012
  23. By: Kuteya, Auckland N.; Jayne, Thomas S.
    Abstract: All governments require accurate information on how the economy functions in order to formulate and implement sound agricultural policies. Policies to ensure food security are no different. Efforts to keep food prices at tolerable levels require information about the competitiveness of the wholesaling, milling, and retailing stages of the food value chain. The main objective for this paper is to better inform policy discussions about the effects of alternative maize pricing and marketing policies on national food security and agricultural development.
    Keywords: Maize, Zambia, Food Security and Poverty,
    Date: 2012–09
  24. By: Marc Rockmore
    Abstract: This paper provides a comprehensive view of household responses to insecurity by examining chances along the extensive and intensive margins of livelihoods during a conflict. In particular, it examines how insecurity affects both the choice of activities and the composition of associated livestock and crop portfolios. Uniquely, I rely on a sample of over 690,000 rural households, accounting for 75 percent of all rural households in Northern Uganda. Overall, the analysis suggests that shifts in the composition and levels of assets are one of the primarily paths by which conflict-risk lowers welfare.
    Keywords: Welfare and Poverty, Economic Development, Conflict, Risk
    Date: 2012–09
  25. By: Prowse, Martin; Weldegebriel, Zerihune Berhane
    Abstract: Ethiopia is vulnerable to climate change due to its limited development and dependence on agriculture. Social protection schemes like the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) can play a positive role in promoting livelihoods and enhancing households’ risk management. This article examines the impact of the PSNP by using Propensity Score Matching to estimate the effect on income diversification. The results show receiving transfers from the PSNP, on average, increases natural resource extraction (one component of off-farm income). While these results should be treated with caution, they suggest the PSNP may not be helping smallholders diversify income sources in a positive manner for climate adaptation. The article concludes by arguing for further investigation of the PSNP’s influence on smallholders’ adaptation strategies.
    Keywords: Ethiopia; climate change
    Date: 2012–11
  26. By: Linda Kleemann; Awudu Abdulai
    Abstract: The recent empirical literature on economic sustainability of certified export crops shows that certification standards that enhance yields are important for improving farm revenues and farmer welfare. However, limited evidence exists on the impact of organic certification on the adoption of agro-ecological practices. In this study, we use unique farm-level data from Ghana to examine the impact of organic certification on the use of agro-ecological practices to improve environmental conditions, as well as how using these measures affect farm outcomes such as return on investment. In the former, we utilize an endogenous switching regression approach to account for selection bias due to unobservable factors. Our empirical results reveal that organic certification increases agro-ecological practice use, although from a very low starting point. Using a generalized propensity score approach, we show that there is a nonlinear relationship between the intensity of agro-ecological practice use and return on investment
    Keywords: organic agriculture, certification, agro-ecological practices, return on investment, impact assessment
    JEL: O13 Q13 Q17 Q56
    Date: 2012–12
  27. By: Dominic Rohner (Department of Economics, University of Zurich); Mathias Thoenig (Department of Economics, University of Lausanne); Fabrizio Zilibotti (Department of Economics, University of Zurich, and Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University)
    Abstract: We study the effect of civil conflict on social capital, focusing on the experience of Uganda during the last decade. Using individual and county-level data, we document large causal effects on trust and ethnic identity of an exogenous outburst of ethnic conflicts in 2002-05. We exploit two waves of survey data from Afrobarometer 2000 and 2008, including information on socioeconomic characteristics at the individual level, and geo-referenced measures of fighting events from ACLED. Our identification strategy exploits variations in the intensity of fighting both in the spatial and cross-ethnic dimensions. We find that more intense fighting decreases generalized trust and increases ethnic identity. The effects are quantitatively large and robust to a number of control variables, alternative measures of violence, and different statistical techniques involving ethnic and spatial fixed effects and instrumental variables. We also document that the post-war effects of ethnic violence depend on the ethnic fractionalization. Fighting has a negative effect on the economic situation in highly fractionalized counties, but has no effect in less fractionalized counties. Our findings are consistent with the existence of a self-reinforcing process between conflicts and ethnic cleavages.
    Keywords: ethnicity, violence, fractionalization
    JEL: D74
    Date: 2012–02
  28. By: Mezgebo, Taddese
    Abstract: Using AFIRMA-M-HYGARCH model it is found that the structure of temporal profit was observed to change in three periods. Since the second and third periods are associated with lagged effect of heavy handed state intervention, it was possible to get an idea to the effect of such state policy. It is concluded in this paper that the strategy was more destabilizing and it did harm wholesale traders by reducing their return from volatility, but it also improve their leverage to some extent. More over in what state intervention resulted is in changing the stable high volatility toward more structured and hard to control clustered volatility, than reducing it. For some time, however, the limit of the volatility was reduced while destabilizing the market from day to day. In general the grain market is observed to have high level of volatility in temporal profit.
    Keywords: Ethiopian commodity exchange; coffee export; Ethiopia; ECX; FIGARCH; HYGARCH; ARFIMA
    JEL: G14 C53 C22
    Date: 2012–02–20
  29. By: Philip Verwimp (ECARES and Centre Emile Bernheim, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Université Libre de Bruxelles)
    Abstract: Civil wars often force people to leave their homes. Displaced populations run higher risk in terms of disease, hunger and death, something that is well-documented. They leave their land, cattle and other assets behind for an uncertain existence in a refugee camp or depend on relatives or friends. But what happens when they return back home? This paper investigates the food security and poverty of formerly displaced persons and their household. Using the 2006 Core Welfare Indicator Survey for Burundi we compare their food intake and their level of expenses with that of their non-displaced neighbours. We test whether it is the duration of displacement that matters for current welfare or the time lapsed since returning. We use log-linear and ordered probit models as well as propensity score matching. We find that the individuals and households who returned home just before the time of the survey are worse off compared to those who returned several years earlier. It takes 8 to 10 years after return before the level of welfare of the displaced converges to that of the non-displaced. The duration of displacement seems not to matter. On average, the formerly displaced have 20% lower expenses per adult equivalent compared to the non-displaced, 15% lower food expenses but only 6 % lower calorie intake, showing that the formerly displaced consume relatively more high calorie products. The formerly displaced also report more children with a smaller size at birth. Despite international, government and NGO assistance, the welfare of recent returnees is lagging seriously behind in comparison with the local non-displaced populations.
    Keywords: Forced Displacement, Food Security, Nutrition, Poverty, Burundi
    Date: 2012–09
  30. By: Christiaensen , Luc; Pan, Lei
    Abstract: A common behavioral assumption of micro-economic theory is that income is fungible. Using household panel data from rural China and Tanzania, this study finds however that people are more likely to spend unearned income on less basic consumption goods such as alcohol and tobacco, non-staple food, transportation and communication, and clothing, while they are somewhat more likely to spend earned income on basic consumption goods such as staple food, and invest it in education. This resonates with the widespread cultural notion that money that is easily earned is also more easily spent. Cognitively, the results could be understood within the context of emotional accounting, whereby people classify income based on the emotions it evokes, prompting them to spend hard earned money more wisely to mitigate the negative connotations associated with its acquisition. The policy implications are real, bearing for example on the choice between employment guarantee schemes and cash transfers in designing social security programs.
    Keywords: Economic Theory&Research,Rural Poverty Reduction,Inequality,Labor Policies,Fiscal&Monetary Policy
    Date: 2012–12–01
  31. By: Kacem, Rami Ben Haj
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to contribute to the debate on the pro-poor growth measurement techniques using monetary versus non-monetary indicators. In this context, an alternative method for introducing non-monetary indicators into monetary pro-poor growth analysis is presented. The method is based on the definition of a Conditional Growth Incidence Curve for each group of households with a common selected non-monetary characteristic. Additional information provided by the Conditional Growth Incidence Curve is useful for a more detailed pro-poor growth analysis. Empirical illustration using data from rural Ethiopia between 2004 and 2009 shows the utility and the limits of each measurement technique. --
    Keywords: pro-poor growth,multidimensionality of poverty,growth incidence curve
    JEL: D30 I30 O12
    Date: 2012
  32. By: Tom Bundervoet (the International Rescue Committee)
    Abstract: This article examines the impact of war-induced ill early childhood health on educational attainment in early adolescence. Using data on a small panel of children we find that children who were malnourished at baseline had on average attained fewer grades than children of the same year of birth cohort who were healthier at baseline. The effect is particularly salient for the older children who were most exposed to violence in their early childhood years. We find that the worse educational status of malnourished children is due to both an enrolment effect and a poor school performance effect.
    Keywords: childhood, health, education, nutrition, Burundi
    Date: 2012–04
  33. By: Pierre André (THEMA, Universite de Cergy-Pontoise and THEMA)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the connection between grade repetition and school outcomes. It uses the fact that pupils need to meet class-specific standards to pass to the next grade. It measures the differences in the link between learning achievement and grade repetition between classes with different requirements to pass to the next grade. This double difference identifies the effect of grade repetition. The results show a negative effect of the grade repetition decision on the probability to be enrolled at school the next year, and on the probability to start secondary school. Despite this mechanism, pupils from schools with tough grade repetition policies are on average more likely to be enrolled during the follow-up survey and to start secondary school. These schools do not seem to be located in particularly favorable places for this. This emphasizes that grade repetition policies might have other consequences than affecting repeating pupils.
    Keywords: Grade repetition, School demand, School dropouts, Senegal
    JEL: D12 I28 O12
    Date: 2012

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