nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2012‒06‒13
eleven papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Cigarettes taxes and smuggling in South Africa: Causes and Consequences By Craig Lemboe; Philip Black
  2. Global e-commerce and african participation:a critical assessment By Nwaobi, Godwin
  3. A right price for rice? Côte d’Ivoire insights into the welfare implications of the ‘global food crisis’ By Ralitza Dimova; Monnet Gbakou
  4. Impacts of large-scale expansion of biofuels on global poverty and income distribution By Cororaton, Caesar B.; Timilsina, Govinda R.
  5. Does Decentralization Facilitate Access to Poverty-Related Services? Evidence from Benin By Emilie Caldeira; Martial Foucault; Grégoire Rota-Graziosi
  6. Working Paper 150 - South Africa’s Quest for Inclusive Development By AfDB
  7. Trade and Resources: Welfare effects of the Lake Victoria fisheries boom By Eggert, Håkan; Greaker, Mads; Kidane, Asmerom
  8. Stress test macroéconomique du système bancaire de l'UEMOA By Gammadigbé, Vigninou
  9. Construction and updating of a Ugandan CGE database By Louise Roos; Philip Adams; Jan van Heerden
  10. Estimating the causal effects of conflict on education in Côte d'Ivoire By Dabalen, Andrew L.; Paul, Saumik
  11. L'instrumentation du contrôle de gestion dans les entreprises au Sénégal By Boniface Bampoky; François Meyssonnier

  1. By: Craig Lemboe (Bureau for Economic Research, University of Stellenbosch); Philip Black (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)
    Abstract: The main instrument within the broader framework of tobacco control in South Africa has been the more aggressive use of tobacco taxes which since 1999/2000 have increased from 0.12 cents per cigarette to 0.38c in 2009/10. The primary goal of these policies is to reduce cigarette consumption and the attendant negative externality. National Treasury (NT) data seem to suggest that these initiatives and higher taxes in particular have been effective in reducing cigarette consumption. However, the official (NT) data pay little attention to the illegal cigarette market which in South Africa has long been assumed to be only a fraction of total cigarette consumption. Comparing an independent consumption survey with the NT data we find that the level of cigarette smuggling in South Africa is in fact significant, constituting between 40% and 50% of the total market, and that cigarette tax hikes have to a large extent contributed to its continued existence and growth by creating a financial incentive to smuggle. Furthermore, the well-established informal sector in South Africa - which developed under Apartheid rule and is characterised by strong networks with other African countries - implies that there is a greater ability and likelihood of consumers switching from consuming legal cigarettes to consuming illegal cigarettes following a tax-induced price increase. There is also much evidence indicating that illegal cigarettes are of inferior quality which, combined with the tax induced shift to smuggled cigarettes, suggests that cigarette tax hikes could have the perverse effect of raising rather than lowering the overall negative externality.
    Keywords: externalities, cigarette smuggling, illegal market, tobacco control
    JEL: H23 I18
    Date: 2012
  2. By: Nwaobi, Godwin
    Abstract: Indeed, it has been asserted that the most fundamental resource in the modern economy is knowledge while the most important process of economic development is learning. Therefore, e-commerce is an important contributor to the learning process which shapes economic performance. In fact, it provides improved access to structured business information as well as offering opportunities for innovation when embedded in production processes. Although inequalities of access to information have been shown to adversely affect market performance in african countries; the internet(by virtue of its relatively low investment and configuration costs as well as interactive global reach) potentially could play a pivotal role in enabling increasing connectivity and visibility at national, regional and global-scale value chains. In the light of this background, this paper assessed the dynamics of e-commerce in Africa so that a new insight may be shed on the ways in which e-commerce is transforming the organization(and operation)of value chains. However, to be able to develop appropriate policies, decision makers need to be aware of the implications of the emerging transformation process.
    Keywords: africa; elearning; ecommerce; global; internet; policies; knowledge; economy; investment; infrastructure; technologies; growth; development; networks; social; participation; assessment
    JEL: F00 O30 Z13 D80 M20 A14
    Date: 2012–06–06
  3. By: Ralitza Dimova; Monnet Gbakou
    Abstract: Abstract Using 2008 LSMS data for Côte d’Ivoire, we study the welfare implications of the price increase of key imported staple food – rice – and consider the consumption smoothing effect of locally produced food and cash crop varieties. While middle-income households are found to be hardest hit by a price shock, the poorest appear to be immune to it. When both cash and food crop production is taken into account, the negative impact becomes negligible. We find interesting income reallocations from richer to poorer households, which can potentially be generalised across similar African countries.
    Date: 2012
  4. By: Cororaton, Caesar B.; Timilsina, Govinda R.
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of large-scale expansion of biofuels on the global income distribution and poverty. A global computable general equilibrium model is used to simulate the effects of the expansion of biofuels on resource allocation, commodity prices, factor prices and household income. A second model based on world-wide household surveys uses these results to calculate the impacts on poverty and global income inequality. The study finds that the large-scale expansion of biofuels leads to an increase in production and prices of agricultural commodities. The increased prices would cause higher food prices, especially in developing countries. Moreover, wages of unskilled rural labor would also increase, which slows down the rural to urban migration in many developing countries. The study also shows that the effects on poverty vary across regions; it increases in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, whereas it decreases in Latin America. At the global level, the expansion of biofuels increases poverty slightly.
    Keywords: Rural Poverty Reduction,Food&Beverage Industry,Regional Economic Development,Economic Theory&Research,Labor Policies
    Date: 2012–06–01
  5. By: Emilie Caldeira; Martial Foucault; Grégoire Rota-Graziosi
    Abstract: We study the effect of decentralization on the access to some poverty-related public services in Benin. Compiling panel data from local governments' accounts and from surveys on 18,000 Beninese households performed in 2006 and 2007, our study suggests that decentralization has a positive overall effect on access to basic services. However, this effect appears to be nonmonotone following an inverted U-shaped curve. It varies according to local jurisdictions' wealth and to the nature of basic services. Decentralization in Benin contributes positively to the reduction of poverty by improving the average access to poverty-related services. However, the devil is in the details, as decentralization seems to increase inequality among local governments in terms of access. Another result relying on the success of decentralization in Benin is the prioritization of basic services, which differs among local governments according to their wealth. While the poorest jurisdictions neglect primary education, focusing more on access to drinking water, the richest ones get less attention to sewage services, since these are already provided at a sufficiently high level.
    JEL: D73 H41 H42 H52 H77 I38 O17
    Date: 2012–06
  6. By: AfDB
    Date: 2012–05–28
  7. By: Eggert, Håkan (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Greaker, Mads (Statistics Norway); Kidane, Asmerom (University of Dar-es-Salaam)
    Abstract: In this paper we examine the welfare implications of the Tanzanian fisheries boom following from the increase in quantities and prices of the Lake Victoria Nile perch export during 1993-2008. We use the theoretical model by Brander and Taylor (1997) that we try to test empirically. We have a micro level perspective using data from a 1993 World Bank household survey and our own study from 2008, both containing data from about 520 households in the two regions Mwanza and Mara by the lake. Our results indicate that average income has increased in both rural and urban areas. For the poorest part of the population, rural areas experienced only modestly and non-significantly reductions in the fraction below basic needs, while urban areas had a substantial reduction. However, growth was modest and inequality seems to have increased during the period. Concerning human capital measured as education for the household head we found substantial improvements in educational level and a simple regression model confirmed the significant impact of education on household income. We also found that households on average are better off when situated close to the lake.
    Keywords: international fish trade; Lake Victoria; Nile perch; poverty reduction; Tanzania
    JEL: F18 Q02 Q22 Q56
    Date: 2012–06–04
  8. By: Gammadigbé, Vigninou
    Abstract: In this paper we evaluate the resilience of the banking system of WAEMU to macroeconomic shocks. From banks data, aggregated by country from 1990 to 2010, we identify the microeconomic and macroeconomic determinants of banks profitability of the Union using the generalized method of moments (GMM) in a dynamic panel data model. We then perform the exercises of stress by evaluating the sensitivity of the banks coefficient of profitability to various adverse scenarios.The results show that banks of the Union are more vulnerable to monetary shocks than real activity. They support especially soundness of the banking sector as a whole in respond to changes in its macroeconomic environment, so that the risk of degradation of profitability related to impact of the real economy are contained.
    Keywords: Stress testing; dynamic panel data models; Generalized method of moments; coefficient of profitability; WAEMU
    JEL: C23 G21
    Date: 2012–03
  9. By: Louise Roos; Philip Adams; Jan van Heerden
    Abstract: This paper documents (1) the structure of a CGE database; (2) the data manipulation steps in creating such a database from published data; (3) updating a SAM; and (4) describe features of the updated SAM. The database is constructed for a Ugandan CGE model. The building blocks for creating a database for a CGE model are official data from an Input/output (IO) table, or from a Supply Use Table (SUT), or from a SAM. Often the structure of the published data is not in the required format of a CGE database, and so a major task is to transform the official data into a form required by a CGE database. The first step in this task is typically a review of the primary source of data. We then proceed by identifying any implausible, unusual and negative values. We adjust these elements and rebalance the database to ensure that the balancing conditions hold. We then proceed to create the matrices required by the CGE model. Typically we create (1) a source dimension for all user-specific matrices, (2) user and source-specific margin matrices, (3) user and source-specific tax matrices and (4) industry-specific land rentals. It is likely that as we adjust data and create the required matrices, we violate the balancing conditions. Therefore in each step in the database construction stage, we check the balancing conditions and when appropriate we rebalance the database to ensure that the balancing conditions hold. Having constructed the 2002 database that conforms to the CGE structure, we update the database to 2009. We then proceed to create an additional sector namely, RawOil sector. In terms of the database, we create an additional industry and an additional commodity. Our final task is to create, based on the 2009 database, an updated SAM. The CGE database does not provide information on transfers between economic agents. We therefore adjust the transfer elements based on shares estimated for 2002.
    Keywords: CGE modelling, database construction, Uganda
    JEL: C68 C69
    Date: 2012–03
  10. By: Dabalen, Andrew L.; Paul, Saumik
    Abstract: This paper estimates the causal effects of civil war on years of education in the context of a school-going age cohort that is exposed to armed conflict in Cote d'Ivoire. Using year and department of birth to identify an individual's exposure to war, the difference-in-difference outcomes indicate that the average years of education for a school-going age cohort is .94 years fewer compared with an older cohort in war-affected regions. To minimize the potential bias in the estimated outcome, the authors use a set of victimization indicators to identify the true effect of war. The propensity score matching estimates do not alter the main findings. In addition, the outcomes of double-robust models minimize the specification errors in the model. Moreover, the paper finds the outcomes are robust across alternative matching methods, estimation by using subsamples, and other education outcome variables. Overall, the findings across different models suggest a drop in average years of education by a range of .2 to .9 fewer years.
    Keywords: Access&Equity in Basic Education,Population Policies,Post Conflict Reconstruction,Education For All,Primary Education
    Date: 2012–06–01
  11. By: Boniface Bampoky (UMMISCO - Unité de modélisation mathématique et informatique des systèmes complexes - IRD : UR209 - Université Paris VI - Pierre et Marie Curie - Institut de la francophonie pour l'informatique - Université Cadi Ayyad (Marrakech, Maroc) - Université Cheikh Anta Diop (Dakar, Sénégal) - Université Gaston Bergé (Saint-Louis, Sénégal) - Universtié Yaoundé 1 (Cameroun)); François Meyssonnier (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Université de Nantes : EA4272)
    Abstract: Des entretiens exploratoires auprès de 10 entreprises suivis d'une enquête confirmatoire par questionnaires auprès de 130 entreprises représentatives permettent de décrire les pratiques de contrôle de gestion des entreprises au Sénégal.
    Date: 2012

This nep-afr issue is ©2012 by Quentin Wodon. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
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