nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2012‒03‒08
25 papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. The Effects of the Food Reserve Agency on Maize Market Prices in Zambia. By Mason, Nicole; Myers, Robert J
  2. Assessing Bank Competition within the East African Community By Matthew Gaertner; Sarah Sanya
  3. The Impact of State Marketing Board Operations on Smallholder Behavior and Incomes: The Case of Kenya By Mather, David; Jayne, T.S.
  4. Discovering East Africa's Industrial Opportunities By Cesar A. Hidalgo
  5. Does European Aflatoxin Regulation Hurt Groundnut Exporters from Africa? By Xiong, Bo; Beghin, John C.
  6. Zambian Smallholder Behavioral Responses To Food Reserve Agency Activities By Mason, Nicole M.; Myers, Robert J.
  7. The Sun Rises in the East (of Africa): A Comparison of the Development and Status of the Solar Energy Markets in Kenya and Tanzania By Janosch Ondraczek
  8. Power outages and economic growth in Africa By Andersen, Thomas Barnebeck; Dalgaard, Carl-Johan
  9. Structural Breaks and Predictive Regressions Models of South African Equity Premium By Goodness C. Aye; Rangan Gupta; Mampho P. Modise
  10. Financing Africa: Through the crisis and beyond. By Beck, T.H.L.; Munzele Maimbo, S.; Faye, I.; Triki, T.
  11. Optimal public investment, growth and consumption: evidence from African countries By Augustin Kwasi Fosu; Yoseph Yilma Getachew; Thomas Ziesemer
  12. Implications of Mandatory Registration of Mobile Phone Users in Africa By Nicola Jentzsch
  13. Capital Market Integration: Progress Ahead of the East African Community Monetary Union By Masafumi Yabara
  14. Livestock Transactions as Coping Strategies in Zambia: New Evidence from High-Frequency Panel Data By Ken Miura; Hiromitsu Kanno; Takeshi Sakurai
  15. The Impact of a Feeder Road Project on Cash Crop Production in Zambia’s Eastern Province between 1997 and 2002 By Christian K.M. Kingombe and Salvatore di Falco
  16. Fighting corruption in Africa: do existing corruption-control levels matter? By Simplice A , Asongu
  17. What Determines Exit from Aid-dependence? By Degol Hailu; Admasu Shiferaw
  18. The Effects of the Food Reserve Agency on Maize Market Prices in Zambia By Mason, Nicole M.; Myers, Robert J.
  19. Returns to migration : the role of educational attainment in rural Tanzania By Kudo, Yuya
  20. Working-Age Adult Mortality, Orphan Status, and Child Schooling in Rural Zambia By Mather, David
  21. The gap between recognition and the 'compensation business' : the claim against Britain for compensation by Kenya's former Mau Mau fighters By Tsuda, Miwa
  22. Cassava Commercialization in Mozambique By Donovan, Cynthia; Haggblade, Steven; Salegua, Venâncio Alexandre; Cuambe, Constantino; Mudema, João; Tomo, Alda
  23. Pratiques de vote et pensées politiques des électeurs durant les élections de 2010 au Burundi By Helbig de Balzac, Hélène; Ingelaere, Bert; Vandeginste, Stef
  24. Un soutien appuyé malgré des effets limités : comment expliquer le paradoxe de la privatisation des infrastructures de la BM en Afrique sub-saharienne ? By Arthur Foch
  25. Prudential Liquidity Regulation in Developing Countries: A Case Study of Rwanda By Sarah Sanya; Wayne Mitchell; Angelique Kantengwa

  1. By: Mason, Nicole; Myers, Robert J
    Abstract: Over the last decade, governments in eastern and southern Africa have become increasingly involved in grain marketing via strategic reserves and marketing boards. Kenya, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Zambia all have one or both of these entities, and their level of involvement in grain marketing has generally increased in recent years. Yet, to date, relatively little is known about how the resurgent activities of strategic grain reserves and marketing boards are affecting market prices. This paper estimates the effects of the Zambia Food Reserve Agencyâs (FRA) activities on maize market prices in the country.
    Keywords: Zambia, Food Security, Maize, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty,
    Date: 2011–12
  2. By: Matthew Gaertner; Sarah Sanya
    Abstract: This paper is an empirical analysis of competitiveness in the banking system of four out of the five East African Community (EAC) countries2. The results show that the degree of competition is low due to a combination of structural and socio-economic factors. By way of preview, the analysis ranks the countries in terms of banking sector competitiveness in the following order: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda.
    Keywords: Banking systems , Competition , Cross country analysis , East Africa , Markets ,
    Date: 2012–01–26
  3. By: Mather, David; Jayne, T.S.
    Abstract: Despite the resurgence of parastatal marketing boards and strategic grain reserves over the last decade in eastern and southern Africa, there is little empirical evidence about how their activities affect smallholder input use and cropping decisions. This paper uses panel survey data from 1997-2007 on Kenyan smallholders to investigate the effect of Kenyaâs National Cereal Produce Board (NCPB) activities on farm-gate maize price expectations, output supply, and factor demand.
    Keywords: Kenya, Marketing, Smallholder, Agribusiness, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Security and Poverty,
    Date: 2011–11
  4. By: Cesar A. Hidalgo
    Abstract: What are East Africa's industrial opportunities? In this article we explore this question by using the Product Space to study the productive structure of five south-east African countries: Kenya, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania and Zambia. The Product Space is a network connecting products that tend to be exported by the same sets of countries. Since countries are more likely to develop products that are close by in the Product Space to the ones that they already produce, the Product Space can be used to help anticipate a country's industrial opportunities. Our results suggest that the most natural avenue for future product diversification for these five south-east African nations resides in the agricultural sector, since all of these nations appear to have productive structures that are pre-adapted to the production of many agricultural products that none of them are currently exporting. We conclude this paper by exploring the potential benefits of further regional economic integration by doing an exercise in which we pull together the productive structures of these five countries. This exercise shows that the products that become more accessible in the combined economy are once again predominantly agricultural. These results suggest that while diversification into all sectors should remain an important long-term goal of the region, the path towards increased diversification in the near future may well lie in a more empowered and diverse agricultural sector.
    Date: 2012–03
  5. By: Xiong, Bo; Beghin, John C.
    Abstract: We provide an ex-post econometric examination of the harmonization and tightening of the EU Maximum Residues Limit (MRL) on aflatoxins in 2002, and its impact on African exports of groundnut products. We show that the MRL set by the EU has no significant trade impact on groundnut exports from Africa across various methods of estimation. African domestic supply plays an important role in the determination of the volumes of trade and the propensity to trade. Our findings suggest that the trade potential of African groundnut exporters is more constrained by domestic supply issues rather than by limited market access.
    Keywords: food safety; standards; aflatoxin; MRL; groundnut; Africa; EU; market access
    JEL: F13 Q17
    Date: 2011–02–01
  6. By: Mason, Nicole M.; Myers, Robert J.
    Abstract: More than two decades after the initiation of agricultural market reforms in eastern and southern Africa (ESA), governments in the region are increasingly using parastatal grain marketing boards (GMBs) and/or strategic grain reserves (SGRs) to directly influence the prices faced by farmers and consumers (Jayne, Chapoto, and Govereh 2007). In Zambia, the government through the Food Reserve Agency, an SGR/GMB, purchased nearly 400,000 MT of maize from smallholders in 2006/07 and 2007/08, or more than 50% of the maize marketed by this group.
    Keywords: Zambia, Smallholder, Food Security, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty,
    Date: 2011–12
  7. By: Janosch Ondraczek (University of Hamburg, Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change)
    Abstract: This paper describes, compares and analyses the historical development and current status of Kenya's and Tanzania's emerging solar energy markets. The analysis is based on an extensive literature survey and 25 in-depth personal interviews with experts on the East African solar power market. Kenya's solar market is found to be one of the world's leading markets for off-grid solar uses, with a current installed capacity of over 10 MWp and more than 320,000 solar home systems. Having developed much later than the Kenyan market, Tanzania's market still remains smaller than its neighbour's, with an installed capacity of around 4 MWp and at least 40,000 solar home systems, but is in the process of catching up. In addition to solar home systems, other applications of solar energy technologies, such as in social institutions, telecoms and tourism, are covered. Major differences and similarities between the Kenyan and Tanzanian solar markets are identified and reasons for these are analysed. Initial policy i implications regarding the regulation and promotion of solar energy in East Africa suggest that awareness, availability and affordability are major drivers that all need to be present to enable the widespread uptake of off-grid solar technologies in emerging markets.
    Keywords: Solar energy, Photovoltaic energy, Market development, East Africa, Kenya, Tanzania
    JEL: Q42 Q48 Q49
    Date: 2012–01–27
  8. By: Andersen, Thomas Barnebeck (Department of Business and Economics); Dalgaard, Carl-Johan (Department of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the total effect of power outages on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa over the period 1995-2007. Outages are instrumented using a satellite-based measure of lightning density. As suggested by Henderson et al. (2011), we also combine Penn World Tables GDP data with satellite-based data on nightlights to arrive at a more accurate measure of economic growth. Our results suggest that the annual economic growth drag of a weak power infrastructure is about 2 percentage points.
    Keywords: Economic growth; public utilities; electricity; earthlights; Africa
    JEL: H40 O10 O40
    Date: 2012–02–28
  9. By: Goodness C. Aye (Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Agriculture, Makurdi, Nigeria); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Mampho P. Modise (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)
    Abstract: In this paper, we test for the structural stability of both bivariate and multivariate predictive regression models for equity premium in South Africa over the period of 1990:01 to 2010:12, based on 23 financial and macroeconomic variables. We employ a wide range of methodologies, namely, the popular Andrews (1993) statistic and the Bai (1997) subsample procedure in conjunction with the Hansen (2000) heteroskedastic fixed-regressor bootstrap. We also used the Elliott and Muller (2003) statistic and Bai and Perron (1998, 2003a, 2004) methodologies. We find strong evidence of at least two structural breaks in 22 of 23 bivariate predictive regression models. We also obtain evidence of structural instability in the multivariate predictive regression models of equity premium. Our results also show that the predictive ability of the 23 variables can vary widely across different regimes.
    Keywords: Predictive regression model, equity premium, structural breaks, South Africa
    JEL: C22 C52 C53 G12
    Date: 2012–03
  10. By: Beck, T.H.L. (Tilburg University); Munzele Maimbo, S.; Faye, I.; Triki, T.
    Date: 2011
  11. By: Augustin Kwasi Fosu; Yoseph Yilma Getachew; Thomas Ziesemer
    Abstract: Abstract How much does public capital matter for economic growth? How large should it be? This paper attempts to answer these questions, taking the case of Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. It develops and estimates a model that posits a non-linear relationship between public investment and growth, to determine the growth-maximising public investment GDP share. It empirically also accounts for the crowding-in and crowding-out effects between public and private investment, with equations estimated separately and simultaneously, using System GMM. The paper further runs a simulation and examines the public investment GDP share that maximises consumption. This is estimated to be between 8.4 percent and 11 percent. The results from estimating the growth model are in the middle of this range, which is larger than the observed value of 7.2 percent at the end of the sample period. These outcomes suggest that, on average, there has been public under-investment in Africa, contrary to previous findings.
    Date: 2012
  12. By: Nicola Jentzsch
    Abstract: Sub-Saharan Africa ranks among the top regions in terms of growth in the number of mobile phone users. The success of mobile telephony is attributed to the opening of markets for private players and lenient regulatory policy. However, markets may be increasingly saturated and new regulations introduced across Africa could also have a negative impact on future growth. Since 2006, the majority of countries in the region have introduced mandatory registration of users of prepaid SIM cards with their personal identity details. This potentially increases the costs of using mobile telephony. I present a fixed effects model for the estimation of the impact of mandatory registration on mobile penetration growth, which is based upon a panel dataset of 32 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa for the years 2000 to 2010. The results show that the introduction of mandatory registration depresses growth in mobile penetration.
    Keywords: Telecommunication, government policy, consumer protection, privacy
    JEL: L96 L98 D18
    Date: 2012
  13. By: Masafumi Yabara
    Abstract: Capital markets in the East African Community (EAC) face common challenges of low capitalization and liquidity, but to different degrees. EAC member countries have made noticeable progress in developing domestic capital markets through a regional approach, removing constraints on capital transactions and harmonizing market infrastructure. Nevertheless, empirical analysis suggests capital market integration has not deepened during the past few years in the EAC, although convergence of investment returns is taking place to some extent. Learning from the experience of the West African Economic and Monetary Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, EAC countries would benefit from four actions to accelerate financial market integration: (i) further harmonize market infrastructure; (ii) strengthen regional surveillance mechanisms; (iii) encourage local currency bond issuance by multilateral financial institutions; and (iv) build the capacity of the existing regional institutions.
    Keywords: Bond markets , Capital account liberalization , Capital markets , East Africa , Economic integration , Monetary unions , Stock markets ,
    Date: 2012–01–19
  14. By: Ken Miura; Hiromitsu Kanno; Takeshi Sakurai
    Abstract: This study re-examines the buffer stock hypothesis regarding livestock by taking into account differences in wealth level, asset types, and periods after a shock. This paper takes advantage of a unique panel data set of agricultural households in Southern Province, Zambia. The data were collected by weekly interviews of 48 sample households from November 2007 to December 2009, covering two crop years in which an unusually heavy rainfall event took place. If we consider delayed responses to the heavy rain shock, our econometric analyses support the buffer stock hypothesis for cattle as well as small livestock. Overall, this paper suggests that conventional annual data sets used by existing literature may miss the period-dependent transactions of assets after a shock.
    Keywords: Asset Smoothing, Buffer Stock, Weather Risk, Livestock, Sub-Saharan Africa
    Date: 2012–01
  15. By: Christian K.M. Kingombe and Salvatore di Falco (Overseas Development Institute / Graduate Institute of International Studies / London School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the dynamic impacts of rural road improvements on farm productivity and crop choices in Zambia’s Eastern Province. There are several channels through which the feeder road improvements impact on farmers. Our aim is to estimate whether the differential outcomes in the five treatment districts and three control districts generated by the expansion of market agricultural activities among small to medium scale farmers could be explained by rural road improvements that took place after the new Chiluba MMD government in 1995 had completed an IMF rights accumulation programme bringing the principal marketing agent system to an end. Our district-level empirical analysis is an extension to the Brambilla and Porto(2005, 2007) cross-provincial level approach which proposes a dynamic approach accounting for entry and exit into the agricultural cotton sector to avoid biases in the estimates of aggregate productivity, when measuring productivity in agriculture applied to a repeated cross-sections of farm-level data from the Zambian post-harvest survey (PHS). Despite the limitations of the PHS data covering the period from 1996/1997 to 2001/2002 when the Eastern Province Feeder Road Project (EPFRP) was being implemented. The identification strategy relies on differences-in-differences of outcomes (i.e., cotton productivity) approach across two phases (pre-treatment and post-treatment). We use maize productivity to difference out unobserved household and aggregate agricultural year effects. Through our descriptive analysis we do find that changes in land allocation and in yields to Eastern Province’s most important cash crop – cotton did occur at the district level. However, it is difficult to conclude that these changes are linked directly to the improved accessibility obtained from the implementation of the EPFRP based on our differences-in-differences estimator or our Tobit model.
    Keywords: Impact evaluation, Cash crop choice; Cotton productivity; Africa; Zambia (Eastern Province).
    JEL: C2 C83 D2 O12 O13 Q12 R3
    Date: 2012–02–28
  16. By: Simplice A , Asongu
    Abstract: Purpose – Are there different determinants in the fight against corruption across African countries? Why are some countries more effective at battling corruption than others? To assess these concerns we examine the determinants of corruption-control throughout the conditional distribution of the fight against corruption using panel data from 46 African countries for the period 2002-2010. Design/methodology/approach – The panel quantile regression technique enables us to investigate if the relationship between corruption-control and the exogenous variables differs throughout the distribution of the fight against corruption. Findings – Results could be summarized in the following. (1) Greater economic prosperity leads to less corruption-control and the magnitude of the effect is more important in countries where the fight against corruption is high. (2) Regulation quality seems bimodal, with less positive effects in the tails: among the best and least fighters of corruption. (3) There is support for a less negative consequence of population growth in countries that are already taking the fight against corruption seriously in comparison to those that are lax on the issue. (4) Findings on democracy broadly indicate the democratization process increases the fight against corruption with a greater magnitude at higher quantiles: countries that are already taking the fight seriously. (5) The relevance of voice and accountability in the battle against corruption decreases as corruption-control is taking more seriously by the powers that be. (6) Good governance dynamics of political stability, government effectiveness and the rule of law gain more importance in the fight against corruption when existing levels of corruption-control are already high. Social implications – Our results suggest that the determinants of corruption-control respond differently across the corruption-control distribution. This implies some current corruption-control policies may be reconsidered, especially among the most corrupt and least corrupt African nations. As a policy implication, the fight against corruption should not be postponed, doing so will only reduce the effectiveness of policies in the future. The rewards of institutional reforms are more positive in countries that are already seriously engaged in the corruption fight. Originality/value – This paper contributes to existing literature on the determinants of corruption by focusing on the distribution of the dependent variable(control of corruption). It is likely that good and poor corruption fighters respond differently to factors that influence the fight against corruption. There are subtle institutional differences between corrupt and clean nations that may affect corruption-control determinants and government efficacy in the fight against corruption.
    Keywords: Corruption; Democracy; Government quality; Quantile regression; Africa
    JEL: H10 C10 O55 O10 K10
    Date: 2012–02–24
  17. By: Degol Hailu (UNDP SURF); Admasu Shiferaw (College of William and Mary)
    Abstract: At the Fourth High Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness, the African Union stated that ?the post-Busan agenda for Africa is in essence a programme to reduce aid dependency and ultimately exit aid? (AU, 2011: 11). This One Pager sketches out the attributes of an aid exit strategy to inform such an agenda. We ranked 132 countries based on their aid-to-GDP ratio and grouped them into deciles for the past five decades. The Figure plots the deciles for the 1960s relative to the 2000s. The additional horizontal and vertical lines correspond to the 5th deciles as a threshold for higher and lower degrees of aid-dependence. The 45° line is the locus of countries that have experienced no change in their ranking of aid-dependence between the decades. (?)
    Keywords: What Determines Exit from Aid-dependence?
    Date: 2012–02
  18. By: Mason, Nicole M.; Myers, Robert J.
    Abstract: This policy synthesis estimates the effects of the Zambia Food Reserve Agencyâs (FRA) activities on maize market prices in the country. The FRA, a government parastatal strategic food reserve/maize marketing board, buys maize at a pan-territorial price that typically exceeds wholesale market prices in major maize producing areas. It then exports the maize or sells it domestically at prices determined by tender, at auction, or administratively. In deficit production years, the Agency often imports maize and sells it to select large-scale millers at below-market prices.
    Keywords: Zambia, Maize, Food Security, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty,
    Date: 2011–12
  19. By: Kudo, Yuya
    Abstract: Given the migration premium previously identified in an impact evaluation approach, this paper asks the question of why migration is not more prominent, given such high premium associated with it. Using long-term household panel data drawn from rural Tanzania, Kagera for the period 1991-2004, this study aims to answer this question by exploring the contribution of education in the migration premium. By separating migrants into those that moved out of original villages but remained within Kagera and those who left the region, this study finds that, in consumption, the return on investment in education is higher at both destinations. However, whilst the higher return on education fully explains the gains associated with migration within Kagera, it only partly explains those of external migration. These findings suggest that welfare opportunities are higher at the destination and that an individual's limited investment in education plays a major role in preventing short-distance migration from becoming a significant source of raising welfare, which is not the case for long-distance migration. While education plays a role, it appears that other mechanisms may prohibit rural agents from exploiting the arbitrage opportunity when they migrate to the destination at a great distance from the source.
    Keywords: Tanzania, Population movement, Migration, Education, Rural societies, Africa, Internal migration, School Investment, Return to education, Welfare growth
    JEL: J61 J62 O15 R23 I25
    Date: 2012–02
  20. By: Mather, David
    Abstract: During the last decade, the Zambian government has dramatically increased expenditures on primary and secondary schooling, and enrollment rates have risen dramatically. At the same time, Zambia has faced the challenge of rising HIV prevalence and the possibility that recent gains in long-term human capital development could be eroded if households which suffer the death of a working-age (WA) adult pull their children out of school due to family labor shortages or financial constraints. This paper uses panel survey data from rural Zambia to measure the impact of WA adult mortality and morbidity on primary school attendance and school advancement, and separately tests the extent to which orphan status affects these schooling outcomes. There are five principal findings from our analysis.
    Keywords: Zambia, Adult Mortality, Orphan, Schooling, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Security and Poverty, Health Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2011–11
  21. By: Tsuda, Miwa
    Abstract: During the first Kibaki administration (2002-2007), a movement by the former Mau Mau fighters demanded recognition for the role that they had played in the achievement of independence. They began to demand, also, monetary compensation for past injustices. Why had it taken over 40 years (from independence in 1963) for the former Mau Mau fighters to initiate this movement? What can be observed as the outcome of their movement? To answer these questions, three different historical currents need to be taken into account. These were, respectively, changing trends in the government of Kenya, progress in historical research into the actual circumstances of colonial control, and a realization, based on mounting experience, that launching a legal action against Britain could turn out to be a lucrative initiative. This paper concludes that, regardless of the actual purpose of the legal case, neither of their objectives was certain to be achieved. Two inescapable realities remain: the doubts cast on the reputation of the government by its decision to lift the Mau Mau‟s outlaw status – a decision that was widely seen as a latter-day example of the „Kikuyu favouritism‟ policy followed by the first Kibaki administration – and the popular interpretation of the involvement of Leigh Day, well known in Kenya ever since the unexploded bombs case for its success in obtaining substantial compensation payments, as a vehicle for squeezing large amounts of money from the British government for the benefit of the Kikuyu people.
    Keywords: Kenya, Great Britain, Independence movements, Guerrillas, Colonies, Ethnic problem, Compensation, Ethnicity, Kibaki, Colonization, Kikuyu, Mau Mau
    Date: 2012–02
  22. By: Donovan, Cynthia; Haggblade, Steven; Salegua, Venâncio Alexandre; Cuambe, Constantino; Mudema, João; Tomo, Alda
    Abstract: Cassava supplies roughly 30% of all calories consumed in Mozambique, making it the countryâs most important food security crop. Over the past several decades, growing urbanization and shifting demand patterns have led to growing opportunities for cassava processing and commercialization. This paper examines the commercial dynamics in Mozambiqueâs cassava value chain as well as the food security implications of growing cassava commercialization.
    Keywords: Mozambique, Cassava, Food Security and Poverty,
    Date: 2011–12
  23. By: Helbig de Balzac, Hélène; Ingelaere, Bert; Vandeginste, Stef
    Abstract: A scholarly consensus exists regarding the fact that electoral processes can facilitate democratisation but can equally be the source of instability and/or advance authoritarian rule. Generally, these processes are analyzed by focussing on macro-political institutions and actors. This paper, however, presents a "bottom-up" analysis of the 2010 electoral proces in Burundi through the analysis of survey results that are representative for the Burundian electorate. The results reveal the existence of two regional tendencies regarding "political mobilisation". In addition, four major "electoral groups” can be identified throughout the Burundian territory. Although the “generic" motivation to exercise civic rights and democratic duties through elections is widespread throughout these electoral groups and regions, the findings reveal that an important part of the electorate is either disinterested or characterized by populistic or clientelistic thinking and behaviour. The findings also suggest the existence of a divide between the perceived preoccupations of the political class and the aspirations of the ordinary population. Situated in the context of twenty years of political transition in Burundi, these "pragmatic" and “populistic” practices and local ways of political thinking observed during the 2010 electoral process reveal the danger of an instrumentalisation of these tendencies by anti-democratic and or violent “forces". Secondly, it raises the question how to democratize Burundi’s political transition in substance, thus also in local popular thoughts and practices. Il existe un consensus scientifique concernant le fait que les processus électoraux peuvent faciliter la démocratisation mais peuvent également être la source d’instabilité ou encore amener un régime autoritaire. Généralement, ces processus sont analysés en mettant l'accent sur les acteurs et les institutions politiques macros. Cet article présente toutefois une analyse par le bas du processus électoral de 2010 au Burundi par le biais de l’analyse des resultats d’un sondage représentatif de l'électorat burundais. Les resultats révèlent l’existence de deux tendances régionales sur le plan de la "mobilisation politique". En plus, quatre grands "groupes d’électeurs" peuvent être distingués au sein du territoire burundais. Bien que la motivation "générique", c'est-à-dire l'exercice des droits civiques grâce à des élections, soit très répandue dans l'ensemble de ces groupes d’électeurs et les diverses regions du pays identifiées, les resultats révèlent qu'une partie importante de l’électorat est désintéressée ou alors caractérisée par des comportements et des pensées populistes ou clientélistes. Les résultats indiquent également l’existence d’un fossé entre la perception des preoccupations de la classe politique et les aspirations de la population ordinaire. Situées dans le contexte de vingt années de transition politique au Burundi, ces pratiques "pragmatiques" et "populistes" et les modes de pensée politique observés au niveau local durant le processus électoral de 2010 révèlent le danger d’une instrumentalisation de ces tendances par des "forces" antidémocratiques et/ou violentes. En second lieu, se pose également la question de savoir comment démocratiser en substance la transition politique du Burundi, donc aussi dans les pratiques et les pensées populaires locales.
    Date: 2011–11
  24. By: Arthur Foch (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon Sorbonne)
    Abstract: Trente ans après l'introduction de la privatisation par la BM en ASS, la littérature empirique sur les effets de cette politique conclut à un bilan très mitigé, surtout dans le secteur des infrastructures. Malgré cela, la BM intensifie ses prescriptions de privatisation des infrastructures en ASS. Si des explications convergentes peuvent justifier l'attitude de la BM, cet article défend l'idée qu'elle peut en partie s'expliquer par des motivations financières. La privatisation représente notamment pour la BM un moyen efficace de satisfaire les intérêts financiers de ses principaux donateurs au travers des contrats de reprise des infrastructures. Une analyse empirique reposant sur 270 cas de privatisation des infrastructres en ASS sur la période 1960-2009 indique que les investisseurs étrangers, dont ceux des principaux pays donateurs de la BM, bénéficient davantage de la privatisation lorsqu'elle est appuyée par la BM que lorsqu'elle ne l'est pas. En outre, la BM prescrit plus particulièrement la privatisation des infrastructures dans les secteurs qui sont les plus bénéfiques à ces investisseurs. Plusieurs recommandations politiques sont alors fournies pour rendre la privatisation plus acceptable en ASS et contribuer à résoudre ainsi le problème urgent du financement des infrastructures.
    Keywords: Privatisation, infrastructures, Banque mondiale, Afrique subsaharienne.
    Date: 2012–01
  25. By: Sarah Sanya; Wayne Mitchell; Angelique Kantengwa
    Abstract: This paper analyses the prudential liquidity management framework, in particular the quantitative indicators employed by the central bank of Rwanda in response to the domestic liquidity crisis in 2008/09. It emphasises that the quantitative methods used in the monitoring and assessment of systemic liquidity risk are inadequate because they did not signal the liquidity crises ex-post. There are quick gains to be made from augumenting the liquidity risk indicators with more dynamic liquidity stress tests so that compliance will be achieved through lengthening the maturities of both assets and liabilities on the balance sheet as opposed to simply holding more liquid assets. The paper recommends that policy emphasis shift toward reforms that strengthen systemic liquidity risk assesment, monetary policy implementation as well as improve the efficiency of Rwanda’s financial system.
    Keywords: Bank supervision , Banking sector , Developing countries , Liquidity management , Monetary policy ,
    Date: 2012–01–20

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