nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2012‒01‒25
twenty-six papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. How Large Is the Private Sector in Africa? Evidence from National Accounts and Labor Markets By Stampini, Marco; Leung, Ron; Diarra, Setou M.; Pla, Lauréline
  2. Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of the Big Four By Wim Naudé
  3. Human Development in Africa: A Long-Run Perspective By Leandro Prados de la Escosura
  4. Structural Impediments to African Growth? New Evidence from Real Wages in British Africa, 1880-1965 By Ewout Frankema; Marlous van Waijenburg
  5. Income shocks and HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa: By Burke, Marshall; Gong, Erick; Jones, Kelly
  6. Emerging policies and partnerships under CAADP: Implications for long-term growth, food security, and poverty reduction By Badiane, Ousmane; Odjo, Sunday; Ulimwengu, John
  7. Barriers to Internationalisation: Firm-Level Evidence from South Africa By Marianne Matthee; Waldo Krugell
  8. Agricultural productivity and policies in Sub-Saharan Africa: By Yu, Bingxin; Nin-Pratt, Alejandro
  9. The Role of Human Development on Deforestation in Africa: A Modelling-Based Approach By Brian A., Jingwa; Simplice A., Asongu
  10. Strengthening Health Systems: Perspectives for economic evaluation By Till Bärnighausen; David E. Bloom; Salal Humair
  11. Putting gender on the map: Methods for mapping gendered farm management systems in Sub-Saharan Africa By Meinzen-Dick, Ruth; van Koppen, Barbara; Behrman, Julia; Karelina, Zhenya; Akamandisa, Vincent; Hope, Lesley; Wielgosz, Ben
  12. Responding to land degradation in the highlands of Tigray, Northern Ethiopia: By Kumasi, Tyhra Carolyn; Asenso-Okyere, Kwadwo
  13. Resource-rich yet malnourished: Analysis of the demand for food nutrients in the Democratic Republic of Congo By Ulimwengu, John; Roberts, Cleo; Randriamamonjy, Josee
  14. Mobile Banking: The Impact of M-Pesa in Kenya By Isaac Mbiti; David N. Weil
  15. Altruism, Cooperation, and Efficiency: Agricultural Production in Polygynous Households By Akresh, Richard; Chen, Joyce J.; Moore, Charity
  16. Capital Flight and Investment Dynamics in Nigeria: A Time Series Analysis (1970-2006) By ADESOYE, A. Bolaji; MAKU, Olukayode E.; ATANDA, Akinwande A.
  18. Is Monetary Policy a Growth Stimulant in Nigeria? A Vector Autoregressive Approach By ADESOYE, A. Bolaji; MAKU, Olukayode E.; ATANDA, Akinwande Abdulmaliq
  19. Health systems and HIV treatment in sub-Saharan Africa: Matching intervention and program evaluation strategies By Till Bärnighausen; David E. Bloom; Salal Humair
  20. Development Finance Institutions in Nigeria: Structure, Roles and Assessment By ADESOYE, A. Bolaji; ATANDA, Akinwande Abdulmaliq
  21. Monetary Policy and Share Pricing Business in Nigeria By ADESOYE, A. Bolaji; ATANDA, Akinwande Abdulmaliq
  22. Evaluating the Mexico city policy: How US foreign policy affects fertility outcomes and child health in Ghana By Jones, Kelly M.
  23. L'impact de la solidarité familiale sur le niveau de vie et la pauvreté des personnes âgées au Mali By KUEPIE Mathias
  24. Effets des Chocs de Produits de Base sur la Mobilisation des Recettes Publiques dans les Pays d'Afrique Sub-saharienne By Souleymane DIARRA
  25. Do informed citizens receive more...or pay more ? the impact of radio on the government distribution of public health benefits By Keefer, Philip; Khemani, Stuti
  26. Using panel data to partially identify HIV prevalence when HIV status is not missing at random By Bruno Arpino; Elisabetta De Cao; Franco Peracchi

  1. By: Stampini, Marco (Inter-American Development Bank); Leung, Ron (African Development Bank); Diarra, Setou M. (Université Laval); Pla, Lauréline (African Development Bank)
    Abstract: In recent years, the private sector has been recognized as a key engine of Africa's economic development. Yet, the most simple and fundamental question remains unanswered: how large is the African private sector? We present novel estimates of the size of the private sector in 50 African countries derived from the analysis of national accounts and labor market data. Our results point to a relatively large size of the African private sector. National account data shows that this accounts for about 2/3 of total investments, 4/5 of total consumption and 3/4 of total credit. In relative terms, large private sector countries are concentrated in Western Africa (Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Niger, Senegal and Togo), Central Africa (Cameroun, Republic of Congo) and Eastern Africa (Kenya, Sudan, Uganda and Tanzania), with the addition of Mauritius. Countries with small private sectors include a sample of oil-exporters (Algeria, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Libya and Nigeria), some of the poorest countries in the continent (Burundi, Burkina Faso, Guinea Bissau, Mali and Sao Tome e Principe), Zambia and Botswana. Over the last ten years, the size of the private sector has been contracting significantly in oil exporting countries, although the variation in its size does not appear to be significantly correlated with growth performance. Labor market data reinforces the idea of a large private sector, which provides about 90% of total employment opportunities. However, most of this labor is informal and characterized by low productivity: permanent wage jobs in the private sector account on average for only 10% of total employment (a share similar to that provided by public administration and state owned enterprises). South Africa is the notable exception, with formal wage employment in the private sector representing 46% of total employment. Finally, we find evidence of negative private sector earning premiums, suggesting that market distortions abound. These are likely to prevent the efficient allocation of human resources, and to reduce the overall productivity of the African economies.
    Keywords: private sector size, private sector development, private consumption, private investment, national accounts, private sector employment, private sector earnings, labor markets, Africa
    JEL: H10 J21 O10 O55 P17 Y10
    Date: 2011–12
  2. By: Wim Naudé (Maastricht School of Management, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, University of Maastricht, and United Nations University (UNU-MERIT), Maastricht, The Netherlands, e-mail:
    Abstract: In Sub-Sahara Africa, Botswana, Ghana, Mauritius and South Africa can be considered the “Big Four” economies in terms of economic development and growth. How successful has these countries been in terms of economic development, and can they be considered role models for other Sub-Saharan African countries? And what are the commonalities and differences in their economic development experiences? This paper argues that only Botswana and Mauritius are unqualified development success stories. The jury is still out on Ghana, and South Africa (after 1994) is at most a mixed success. Generally, Botswana, Mauritius and South Africa escaped the factors which caused economic stagnation in much of Sub-Saharan Africa, such as poor policies, poor trade performance, and weak institutions. Geography and history (initial conditions) are also shown to be important in the case of the Big Four, but to have more complex interactions with policies and subsequent outcomes. In Botswana and Mauritius good growth followed from (or even due to) adverse initial conditions. But not all initial conditions were unfavorable: Botswana and Mauritius, as well as South Africa avoided the worst negative impacts of colonialism and slavery, as well as the potential adverse effects of natural resource abundance. The paper finally remarks on two factors which are often overlooked in the economic literature in explaining country performance: good leadership and good luck.
    JEL: O55 O43 O11
    Date: 2011–11
  3. By: Leandro Prados de la Escosura (Department of Economic History and Institutions, Universidad Carlos III, Madrid)
    Abstract: Long-run trends in Africa’s well-being are provided on the basis of a new index of human development, alternative to the UNDP’s HDI. A sustained improvement in African human development is found that falls, nonetheless, short of those experienced in other developing regions. Within Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa has fallen steadily behind the North since mid-20th century. Human development improvement is positively associated to being coastal and resource-rich and negatively to political-economy distortions. Contrary to the world experience, in which life expectancy dominated, education has driven progress in African human development during the last half-a-century and, due to the impact of HIV/AIDS on life expectancy and the arresting effect of economic mismanagement and political turmoil on growth, advances in human development since 1990 have depended almost exclusively on education achievements. The large country variance of the recovery during the last decade suggests being cautious about the future’s prospects.
    Keywords: Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Human Development, HDI, Life Expectancy, Education
    JEL: O15 O55 I30 N37
    Date: 2011–10
  4. By: Ewout Frankema (Utrecht University); Marlous van Waijenburg
    Abstract: Recent studies on African economic history have emphasized the structural impediments to African growth, such as adverse geographical conditions and extractive colonial institutions. The evidence is mainly drawn from cross-country regressions on late 20th century income levels, assuming persistent effects of historical causes over time. But to which extent has African poverty been a persistent phenomenon? Our study sheds light on this question by providing new evidence on long-term African growth-trajectories. We show that slave trade regressions are not robust for pre-1970s GDP per capita levels, or for pre-1973 and post-1995 growth rates. We calculate urban unskilled real wages of African workers in nine British African countries 1880-1965, adopting Allen’s (2009) subsistence basket methodology. We find that real wages were above subsistence level, rose significantly over time and were, in major parts of British Africa, considerably higher than real wages in Asian cities up to, at least the 1930s. We explain the intra-African variation in real wage levels by varying colonial institutions concerning land alienation, taxation and immigration.
    Keywords: Africa, living standards, real wages, labor market, colonial institutions
    Date: 2011–12
  5. By: Burke, Marshall; Gong, Erick; Jones, Kelly
    Abstract: Poverty is commonly cited as a key driver of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, yet little causal evidence exists linking economic conditions to actual disease outcomes. Using data on more than 200,000 individuals across 19 Sub-Saharan African countries, we present evidence that negative income shocks can lead to substantial increases in HIV prevalence, particularly for women in rural areas. Building on recent work showing that income shortfalls can induce some women to engage in higher-risk sex, we match data on individuals' HIV status from the Demographic and Health Surveys to data on recent variation in local rainfall, a primary (and exogenous) source of variation in income for rural households in Africa. We find that infection rates for women (men) in HIV-endemic rural areas increase significantly by 14 percent (11 percent) for every drought event experienced in the previous 10 years. Further analysis suggests that women most affected by the shocks (that is, those engaged in agriculture) are driving the women's results; these women are partnering with men least affected (those employed outside agriculture). Our findings suggest a role for formal insurance and social safety nets in tackling the HIV/AIDS epidemic.
    Keywords: HIV/AIDS, Income shocks,
    Date: 2011
  6. By: Badiane, Ousmane; Odjo, Sunday; Ulimwengu, John
    Abstract: The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) is one of the main components of the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD). CAADP is an initiative launched by the African Union Commission (AUC) in 2002 to serve as a continent-wide framework to facilitate faster agricultural growth and progress toward poverty reduction and food and nutrition security in Africa. CAADP seeks to promote policies and partnerships and raise investments in Africa's agricultural sector and achieve better development outcomes. It is an unprecedented, comprehensive effort to rally governments and other stakeholders around a set of key values and principles; create partnership mechanisms at continental, regional, and country levels; promote evidence-based and outcome-driven policy design and implementation; and establish inclusive dialogue and review processes to increase the effectiveness of the development process among African countries. This paper examines the new policy and investment planning and the review, dialogue, and partnership modalities and evaluates their likely impact on future growth and poverty-reduction outcomes.
    Keywords: Agriculture, CAADP, Growth, NEPAD, Nutrition, partnership, Poverty,
    Date: 2011
  7. By: Marianne Matthee (School of Economics, North-West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa); Waldo Krugell (School of Economics, North-West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa)
    Abstract: The internal resource barriers that firms experience influence their capability to export. This in turn influences the export performance of the country and the extent to which exports contribute to economic growth. The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of resource barriers, more specifically firm size, productivity, firm-specific capital and labour market constraints, on South African firms' decision to internationalise. The literature on South African exporting firms presents some interesting glimpses of the exporting behaviour of firms in South Africa. However, these were cross-sectional studies focusing on earlier NES data and the 2003 ICA data. This paper tries to provide another dimension in terms of data, by taking the 2007 ICA data into account and by constructing a unique panel from the World Bank Enterprise Survey data for 2003 and 2007. Using panel data allows for better understanding of South African firms in that it enables one to consider the dynamic nature of firms over time. Also, the earlier South African contributions examined the export behaviour of South African firms, but did not control for unobserved heterogeneity. This paper takes the analysis a step further by estimating a panel data two-step Heckman selection model of the predictors of firms’ export propensities and intensities. From the overall results of the model, it is clear that the unobserved factors that make export more likely tend to be associated with lower levels of exports. The main findings are that firm size, productivity and finance matter for exports. Also, barriers to doing business, such as electricity, customs delays and transportation and the use of imported inputs influence exporting firms’ supply-side capabilities.
    JEL: F14 F23 O55 D21
    Date: 2011–07
  8. By: Yu, Bingxin; Nin-Pratt, Alejandro
    Abstract: We analyze the evolution of Sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA's) agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) over the past 45 years, looking for evidence of recent changes in growth patterns using an improved nonparametric Malmquist index. Our TFP estimates show a remarkable recovery in the performance of SSA's agriculture between 1984 and 2006 after a long period of poor performance and decline. That recovery is the consequence of improved efficiency in production, resulting from changes in the output structure and an adjustment in the use of inputs. Policy interventions, including fiscal, trade, and sector-specific policies, appear to have played an important role in improving agricultural performance. Despite the improved agricultural performance, economies in SSA face serious challenges to sustain growth. Among these are the small contribution of technological change to TFP growth in the past, the large tax burden imposed by remaining distortions, and the challenge of population growth.
    Keywords: Agriculture, Efficiency, Malmquist index, policy, Technical change, Total factor productivity,
    Date: 2011
  9. By: Brian A., Jingwa; Simplice A., Asongu
    Abstract: The rate of deforestation in Africa is of paramount concern not only to the future of Africa, but also to the world. This study uses country-level data to model changes in forest area over an 18 year period (1990-2007) in 35 African countries and investigates the role played by important development indicators of human development. The results reveal that the net loss of forests was 0.19% every year between 1990 and 2007. This implies a total of 3.42% of forest was lost in the 18 year period. This is more in line with estimates obtained by the Food and Agricultural Organization (0.56% between1990-2000 and 0.49% between 2000-2010). Human development which involves life expectancy, education and income is found to have a positive effect on forest growth and conservation, while cutting down trees for wood fuel is a significant cause of deforestation. Using generalized linear mixed models and generalised estimating equations, we were able to calculate expected estimates of forest area for 2010, 2020 and 2030 under the assumption that nothing is done to change observed trends. In many countries, progress has been made in reforestation, forest protection and conservation. However, if indiscriminate cutting down of trees is not checked, many countries will lose most or all of their forests by 2030.
    Keywords: Deforestation; Environment; Human development index; Agriculture; Data modelling; Africa
    JEL: Q23 C39 C50 I0 O13 C33
    Date: 2012–01–12
  10. By: Till Bärnighausen (Harvard School of Public Health); David E. Bloom (Harvard School of Public Health); Salal Humair (Harvard School of Public Health)
    Keywords: economic evaluation, health systems, HIV, antiretroviral treatment, Africa
    Date: 2012–01
  11. By: Meinzen-Dick, Ruth; van Koppen, Barbara; Behrman, Julia; Karelina, Zhenya; Akamandisa, Vincent; Hope, Lesley; Wielgosz, Ben
    Abstract: Although the different roles of men and women in agriculture in different parts of Sub-Saharan Africa have been widely acknowledged, there have not been consistent efforts to collect data on these patterns. This paper presents a way of classifying gendered farm management systems and then describes pilots of four different approaches to collecting and georeferencing information on the dominant pattern in each area. Case studies from existing literature provided valuable insights but represent a time-consuming method, limited in spatial coverage and often leaving gaps because the original study authors did not report on all of the aspects of interest for a gendered farm management systems analysis. Expert consultations conducted in Ghana and Zambia allowed for dialogue among participants during map development, permitting them to explore nuances and dynamics. However, this technique may be restricted in scale to one country at a time, limiting cross-national comparison. An open online survey, or crowdsourcing, of the information tapped into a wide range of expertise, providing difficult-to-obtain widespread coverage, but had inconsistent data quality. Mapping of georeferenced information from nationally representative data could potentially provide widespread and relatively accurate data, but thus far the relevant underlying data have not been consistently included in large-scale surveys. Gender mapping offers an important step toward greater awareness of the diverse gender roles in agricultural farm management systems, but gaps remain between field reality and the understanding of gender relations in research, on the one hand, and between the researchers‘ understanding and what can be displayed on a map, on the other. Addressing these gaps requires developing a consensus on the key variables that characterize gendered farming systems, collecting these data systematically, and then linking the data to other spatial information for use in planning and prioritizing development interventions.
    Keywords: farm management systems, Gender, georeferencing,
    Date: 2012
  12. By: Kumasi, Tyhra Carolyn; Asenso-Okyere, Kwadwo
    Abstract: Improving the long-term sustainability and resilience of smallholder agriculture in Africa is highly dependent on conserving or improving the quality of the natural resource. Conservation agriculture is conceived around more integrated and effective management strategies for provisioning both food and other ecosystem services. If unattended to, land degradation would reduce agricultural productivity and increase pressure on marginal environments in the Tigray highlands of Ethiopia, adversely affecting food security and livelihoods of smallholder farmers. This paper answers some pertinent questions about mass mobilization of free compulsory labor for ecological restoration in Tigray. It details perception of changes in climate; the process of collective decisionmaking; resistance, documentation, and enforcement of rules; methods of conflict resolution; knowledge and information networks; arrangements for benefit sharing of communal resources; and the role of gender in mass mobilization for communal work. We analyzed data collected from 20 villages in 3 districts in the Tigray region through a household survey using a structured questionnaire, focus group discussions, and personal observations. The results reveal that the people are motivated to provide their free labor to restore the ecology to increase agricultural productivity and production to avoid food insecurity and improve their general livelihood. Availability of institutions in terms of grassroots organizations and rules and regulations was a major factor in the positive response to the call for action. The commitment of the government at both the national and local levels (through sensitization and mobilization for group formation and provision of tools and construction materials); the ethnic homogeneity of the population; and the existence of the Orthodox Church, where most of the people were members, were major factors for the success of the community mobilization for collective action in Tigray. Social networking with neighbors, the clergy, and leaders of grassroots organizations provided the knowledge and information on climate variability and solutions required to conserve the ecology and improve human livelihood. We also observed that there were no differences in gender division of labor except that women worked half the workload of men in a day; the women also did the cooking and cleaned up the surroundings after eating at the site. Both men and women played active roles in leadership with regard to mobilization of people, communal work planning and scheduling, conflict resolution, and sharing of community products. An impact assessment of the ecological conservation in Tigray on agricultural productivity and production and food security would be useful. It will be interesting to replicate the study in other areas in Ethiopia and other countries where the societies may not be homogenous to find out the level of commitment of the people to communal work.
    Keywords: Collective action, ecological restoration, free labor, Land degradation,
    Date: 2011
  13. By: Ulimwengu, John; Roberts, Cleo; Randriamamonjy, Josee
    Abstract: Endowed with 80 million hectares of arable land (of which only 10 percent are used), diverse climatic conditions, and abundant water resources, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has the potential to become the breadbasket of the entire African continent. Instead, the country is one of the most affected by malnutrition. The DRC has the highest number of undernourished persons in Africa and the highest prevalence of malnutrition in the world. As a result, child stunting and infant mortality rates in the DRC are also among the highest in the world. Overall, at least 50 percent of the population is deficient in vitamin B12, calories, riboflavin, iron, vitamin E, folate, and zinc; vitamins A, C, and B6, for which palm oil and cassava are the main sources, are generally consumed in sufficient quantities. Across provinces, there is significant heterogeneity. All nutrients exhibit positive expenditure elasticities in both rural and urban areas; however, as expected, the expenditure elasticities of all nutrients are higher in urban areas than in rural areas. In rural areas, strategies to improve nutrition will need to use instruments that attack malnutrition directly rather than relying simply on rising incomes. With respect to prices, an increase in own price is expected to have a nonpositive effect on all nutrients. Our results also suggest significant substitution effects. Overall, our results highlight the paradox of the DRC, a country with huge potential for agricultural development but incapable of feeding itself in terms of both quantity and quality of nutrients.
    Keywords: Nutrients, elasticity, Poverty, demand, expenditure, price,
    Date: 2012
  14. By: Isaac Mbiti; David N. Weil
    Abstract: We are grateful to Taryn Dinkelman, John Driscoll, Frederik Eijkman, James Habyarimana, Stephen Mwaura, Benno Ndulu, Pauline Vaughn, Dean Yang and seminar participants at Tulane University and the NBER Africa Success Conference for helpful comments and suggestions. Emilio Depetris Chauvin, Federico Droller, Richard Amwayi Namolo, Angeline Nguyen, Scott Weiner and Jingjing Ye provided superb research assistance. We are grateful to the Financial Sector Deepening (FSD) Trust of Kenya and Pep Intermedius for providing us with data. Financial support for this research was graciously provided by the NBER Africa Success Project. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
    Keywords: #
    Date: 2011
  15. By: Akresh, Richard (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); Chen, Joyce J. (Ohio State University); Moore, Charity (Ohio State University)
    Abstract: Altruism among family members can, in some cases, inhibit cooperation by increasing the utility that players expect to receive in a non-cooperative equilibrium. To test this, we examine agricultural productivity in polygynous households in West Africa. We find that cooperation is greater – production is more efficient – among co-wives than among husbands and wives because co-wives are less altruistic towards each other. The results are not driven by scale effects or self-selection into polygyny. Nor can they be explained by greater propensity for cooperation among women generally or by the household head acting as an enforcement mechanism for others' cooperative agreements.
    Keywords: altruism, non-cooperative behavior, household bargaining, polygyny, Africa
    JEL: D13 D70 J12 O13 O55
    Date: 2011–12
  16. By: ADESOYE, A. Bolaji; MAKU, Olukayode E.; ATANDA, Akinwande A.
    Abstract: This study critically examines the implications of capital flight on investment growth in Nigeria between 1970 and 2006, because of the consequential effect it has on economic growth. The time series data properties incorporated were examined using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test and the results revealed that Investment, capital flight, interest rate and exchange rate were stationary at levels excluding exchange rate found to be integrated at first difference. The Augmented Engle-Granger (AEG) co-integration test employed to investigate the dynamic relationship between capital flight and investment level in Nigeria, revealed that there exist long-run interaction. Though, capital flight was found to exert positive but insignificant effect on investment growth during the review period. While, the short-run dynamic interaction as a result of the structural instability in the long-run was captured by the Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) model which was found inestimable due to the high collinearity existing among the incorporated variables. Policy recommendations were proffered base on the research findings.
    Keywords: Capital flight; Investment behaviour; Long-run; Stationarity; ECM; Cointegration; Nigeria
    JEL: E22 E00 C22 A10
    Date: 2012
  17. By: André de Waal (Associate professor Strategic Management at the Maastricht School of Management, the Netherlands, and academic director of the research organisation Center for Organisational Performance, the Netherlands.); Miriam Frijns (Miriam Frijns is lecturer at the Maastricht School of Management, the Netherlands, and director of the training advice centre Nihil Admiraria.)
    Abstract: In the past seventeen years Rwanda has been in the process of recovering from the 1994 genocide. The country is currently rebuilding itself, with considerable success. One of the main components of the post-genocide reconstruction of Rwanda is the government’s development plan called Vision2020. This programme aims at overcoming poverty and division by initiating a wide range of improvement programmes for good governance and economic development. In practice, however, the roll-out of Vision2020 seems to be missing a coordinating framework to provide direction to and align the improvement initiatives of the various, often independently operating, governmental agencies. Such a framework could not only provide direction but also help to set priorities and offer an evaluation mechanism to monitor progress on improvement initiatives. This article describes exploratory research into the question whether the High Performance Organisations Framework could function as this coordinating framework. It was assumed that the empirically validated HPO Framework could be used in the Rwandan context as it had earlier been successfully applied in neighbouring country Tanzania. After a first application of the HPO framework at the Rwandan Ministry of Local Governance and Social Affairs (MINALOC), it was concluded that this framework could indeed be used to assess the status of a Rwandan governmental agency and that in addition it also shed light on possible improvement points for MINALOC. By strengthening its internal organisation, the HPO framework will help Rwanda’s MINALOC to focus on what is really important to improve and thereby it can advance the improvement process and the realisation of Vision 2020.
    JEL: M12 M14
    Date: 2011–11
  18. By: ADESOYE, A. Bolaji; MAKU, Olukayode E.; ATANDA, Akinwande Abdulmaliq
    Abstract: This paper critically examines the dynamic interaction between monetary policy tools in stimulating economic growth, as well as stabilizing the economy from external shocks in Nigeria. The paper considered key monetary time series variables and real growth of output in formulating Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models which showed interdependence interaction between the period of 1970 and 2007. The time series properties of the selected variables are examined using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test and the results revealed that only growth of real output and broad money supply are stationary at levels, while saving, lending and exchange rates were found stationary at first difference. The long-run dynamic interaction was established through the Johansen’s Trace and Maximum Eigenvalue tests. The pair-wise Granger-Causality test conducted showed that the growth rate of real output is not a leading indicator for any monetary variables. Other innovation accounting tests were also carried out like impulse responses function to test for the response of growth in real output to innovation shock on monetary variables. Also, the forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) is used to decompose the monetary shock on the growth rate of real output in Nigeria. Proper policy recommendations were proffered based on the results emanated from the econometric analyses.
    Keywords: Monetary policy; Monetary Instruments; Economic growth; VAR; Impulse shock response; Variance decomposition
    JEL: C51 C32 E0 E52 E00
    Date: 2012
  19. By: Till Bärnighausen (Harvard School of Public Health); David E. Bloom (Harvard School of Public Health); Salal Humair (Harvard School of Public Health)
    Abstract: Objectives International donors financing the delivery of antiretroviral treatment (ART) in developing countries have recently emphasized their commitment to rigorous evaluation of ART impact on population health. In the same time frame but different contexts, they have announced that they will shift funding from vertically-structured (i.e., disease-specific) interventions to horizontally-structured interventions (i.e., staff, systems and infrastructure that can deliver care for many diseases). We analyze likely effects of the latter shift on the feasibility of impact evaluation. Methods We examine the effect of the shift in intervention strategy on (i) outcome measurement, (ii) cost measurement, (iii) study-design options, and the (iv) technical and (v) political feasibility of program evaluation. Results As intervention structure changes from vertical to horizontal, outcome and cost measurement are likely to become more difficult (because the number of relevant outcomes and costs increases and the sources holding data on these measures become more diverse); study design options become more limited (because it is often impossible to identify a rigorously defined counterfactual in horizontal interventions); the technical feasibility of interventions is reduced (because lag times between intervention and impact increase in length and effect mediating and modifying factors increase in number); and political feasibility of evaluation is decreased (because national policymakers may be reluctant to support the evaluation). Conclusions In the choice of intervention strategy, policymakers need to consider the effect of intervention strategy on impact evaluation. Methodological studies are needed to identify the best approaches to evaluate the population health impact of horizontal interventions.
    Keywords: Impact evaluation, health systems, HIV, antiretroviral treatment, Africa
    Date: 2012–01
  20. By: ADESOYE, A. Bolaji; ATANDA, Akinwande Abdulmaliq
    Abstract: The efficient channelling of funds and allocation of financial resources are roles expected to be undertaken in the financial system to facilitate productive growth in the real sector of the economy. There have been overlapping roles in the Nigerian financial system and this has resulted to inefficient intermediation and under-development of vibrant sectors of the economy. Thus, necessitated the emergence of development financial institutions to render services to the large un-catered economics agents (especially in the rural areas) by the universal banks. The institutions are expected to offer specialized and micro financial services, offer relative cheap and accessible financing options, provide long-term finance for infrastructure development, industrial growth, agriculture, small and medium enterprises (SME) development and provide financial products for certain sections of the people. However, this paper evaluates the roles and structure of the development financial institutions in Nigeria and also assesses their performance over time.
    Keywords: Development Finance Institutions; Financial Institutions; Financial Intermediation; Real Sectors; Financial Services; Financial Products; Small and Medium Scale Enterprises; Nigeria
    JEL: E0 E44 F33
    Date: 2012
  21. By: ADESOYE, A. Bolaji; ATANDA, Akinwande Abdulmaliq
    Abstract: The anatomy of Nigerian financial system is composed of the money and capital markets. Monetary policy is a framework used by the apex bank to regulate the flow of loanable funds in the economy, though the pricing of equity used by private investors to raise capital from the economy is carried out at the capital market end of the system. As earlier empirical studies have shown the relationship between monetary policy and stock market, this study provide a precise insight in the mechanism of interaction that co-exist between monetary policy and share pricing in Nigeria. The study identified money supply and interest rate (credit creation) as the main channels through which monetary policy influence sharing pricing in an open economy like Nigeria.
    Keywords: Monetary Policy; Share Pricing; Monetary instruments; Money supply; Equity/capital market; money market; financial system; IPO pricing; Nigeria
    JEL: G12 G15 E52 G0
    Date: 2012
  22. By: Jones, Kelly M.
    Abstract: US development assistance represents a significant source of funding for many population programs in poor countries. The Mexico City policy, known derisively as the global gag rule, restricts activities of foreign nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) that receive such assistance. The intent of the policy is to reduce the use of abortion in developing countries—a policy that is born entirely of US domestic politics and that turns on and off depending on the political party in power. I examine here whether the policy achieves its aim, and how the policy affects reproductive outcomes for women in Ghana. Employing a woman-by-month panel of pregnancies and woman fixed effects, I estimate whether a given woman is less likely to abort a pregnancy during two policy periods versus two nonpolicy periods. I find no evidence that any demographic group reduces the use of abortion as a result of the policy. On the contrary, rural women significantly increase abortions. This effect seems to arise from their increased rate of conception during these times. The policy-induced budget shortfalls reportedly forced NGOs to cut rural outreach services, reducing the availability of contraceptives in rural areas. The lack of contraceptives likely caused the observed 12 percent increase in rural pregnancies, ultimately resulting in about 200,000 additional abortions and between 500,000 and 750,000 additional unintended births. I find that these additional unwanted children have significantly reduced height and weight for age, relative to their siblings. Rather than reducing abortion, this policy increased pregnancy, abortion, and unintended births, resulting in more than a half-million children of significantly reduced nutritional status.
    Keywords: abortion, child health, fertility, Foreign aid,
    Date: 2011
  23. By: KUEPIE Mathias
    Abstract: Selon la théorie des flux intergénérationnels de richesse, quand les enfants sont jeunes, les parents investissent en eux et quand ces enfants deviennent actifs et les parents âgés, les enfants leur viennent en soutien à leur tour. Les enfants constituent ainsi une sorte d’assurance vieillesse pour les parents. L’objectif de cette étude est d’évaluer l’impact de cette « assurance vieillesse » sur le risque de pauvreté des seniors. Nous mobilisons les données d’une enquête ménage réalisée au Mali en 2006. Les résultats montrent que le mécanisme des flux intergénérationnels ascendants n’est pas efficace pour lutter contre la pauvreté des seniors.
    Keywords: Solidarité intergénérationnelle; personnes âgées; pauvreté; Mali
    Date: 2011–10
  24. By: Souleymane DIARRA (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I)
    Abstract: Les chocs de produits de base ont fait l'objet de nombreuses études scientifiques. Les analyses se sont plutôt concentrées sur l'effet des chocs sur : la croissance économique, les dépenses publiques, le niveau de la pauvreté des ménages, etc. Cet article donne une autre dimension à l'analyse de l'effet des chocs en s'intéressant à la mobilisation des recettes publiques dans les pays d'Afrique sub-saharienne. Nous avons d'abord identifié et créé des variables muettes "booms" et "busts". Le test économétrique qui en suit montre un effet significatif et négatif des chocs négatifs sur le taux de prélèvement public et un effet non significatif des chocs positifs. Ces résultats s'expliquent par la baisse de l'effort de mobilisation des recettes publiques durant les périodes de "booms" et l'incapacité des pays d'Afrique sub-saharienne à mobiliser davantage de recettes durant les périodes de "busts". La baisse de l'effort de mobilisation des recettes durant les périodes de "booms" s'explique par l'effet richesse et par la politique budgétaire optimale de Talvi et Végh (2005). En effet, pendant ces périodes, une erreur d'appréciation de la durée du choc positif peut amener les Etats à réduire volontairement les taux d'imposition ou à pratiquer des politiques fiscales laxistes. En outre, l'apparition des pressions à la dépense durant les chocs positifs rend coûteux les surplus budgétaires et amène les Etats à réduire leur taux d'imposition. L'effet négatif et significatif des chocs négatifs est logique et s'explique par le rétrécissement de l'assiette fiscale et les difficultés de mise en œuvre des politiques de mobilisation fiscale durant les périodes de chocs négatifs pour compenser les pertes de recettes publiques.
    Keywords: Chocs;Produits de base;Recettes publiques.
    Date: 2012–01–10
  25. By: Keefer, Philip; Khemani, Stuti
    Abstract: The government provision of free or subsidized bed nets to combat malaria in Benin allows the identification of new channels through which mass media affect public policy outcomes. Prior research has concluded that governments provide greater private benefits to better-informed individuals. This paper shows, for the first time, that governments can also respond by exploiting informed individuals'greater willingness to pay for these benefits. Using a"natural experiment"in radio markets in northern Benin, the paper finds that media access increases the likelihood that households pay for the bed nets they receive from government, rather than getting them for free. Households more exposed to radio programming on the benefits of bed nets and the hazards of malaria place a higher value on bed nets. Local government officials exercise significant discretion over bed net pricing and respond to higher demand by selling bed nets that they could have distributed for free. Mass media appears to change the private behavior of citizens -- in this case, to invest more of their own resources on a public health good (bed nets) -- but not their ability to extract greater benefits from government.
    Keywords: Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Population Policies,Knowledge Economy,Education For All,Malaria
    Date: 2012–01–01
  26. By: Bruno Arpino (Department of Decision Sciences and Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics, Bocconi University.); Elisabetta De Cao (Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics, Bocconi University.); Franco Peracchi (Tor Vergata University and EIEF)
    Abstract: Although population-based surveys are now considered the "gold standard" for estimating HIV prevalence, they are usually plagued by problems of nonignorable non- response. This paper uses the partial identification approach to assess the uncertainty caused by missing HIV status due to unit and item nonresponse. We show how to exploit the availability of panel data and the absorbing nature of HIV infection to narrow the worst-case bounds without imposing assumptions on the missing-data mechanism. Applied to longitudinal data from rural Malawi, our approach results in a substantial reduction of the width of the worst-case bounds. We also use plausible instrumental variable and monotone instrumental variable restrictions to further narrow the bounds.
    Date: 2011

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