nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2011‒04‒16
eleven papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Producers and Consumer attitudes toward Biotechnology in Ghana By Nsafoah, Annie; Dicks, Michael R.; Osei, Collins
  2. How would population growth affect investment in the future? Asymmetric panel causality evidence for Africa. By Simplice A, Asongu
  3. International Relative Prices and Civil Wars in Sub-Saharan Africa. Theory and Evidence over the period (1995-2006) By Caruso, Raul
  4. How integrated is SADC ? trends in intra-regional and extra-regional trade flows and policy By Behar, Alberto; Edwards, Lawrence
  5. Dynamic Effects of an Economic Partnership Agreement: Implications for Senegal By Cissokho, Lassana
  6. Adoption of Conservation Agriculture Technologies by Smallholder Farmers in the Shamva District of Zimbabwe: A Tobit application By Chiputwa, Brian; Langyintuo, Augustine S.; Wall, Patrick
  7. Farmers’ Preferential Choice Decisions to Alternative Cassava Value Chain Strands in Morogoro Rural District, Tanzania By Sewando,, Ponsian T.; Mdoe, N. Y. S.; Mutabazi, K.D.S
  8. Nigeria The Next Generation Report By David E. Bloom et al.
  9. South Sudan Referundum: A Macroeconomic Analysis of Post-Secession Scenario By Onour, Ibrahim
  10. Commodity Price Shocks and Child Outcomes: The 1990 Cocoa Crisis in Côte d'Ivoire By Cogneau, Denis; Jedwab, Rémi
  11. Livestock Market Integration and Price Discovery: Case of Mali By Bizimana, Jean Claude; Bessler, David A.; Angerer, Jay P.

  1. By: Nsafoah, Annie; Dicks, Michael R.; Osei, Collins
    Abstract: Over 265 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa face malnutrition, chronic hunger, and poverty. One of the technologies that could help alleviate the perpetuating cycle of chronic hunger is biotechnology. Genetic modification (GM) has the potential to enhance agricultural productivity and improve Africaâs food security, but little is known about the potential benefits and costs of using genetically modified maize in Africa - Ghana. African and Ghanaian policy makers, farmers, and consumers often have difficulty accepting new technologies. Their reluctance is due to the investment required for new technology, - aversion to risk, the changes required to traditional production practices, and incomplete- knowledge of new technologies. This study elicits the knowledge, views, acceptability, preference, adaptability, and willingness-to-pay for genetically modified GM corn (maize). A survey instrument was used in two corn growing areas in the Ashanti Region of Ghana, to identify the barriers to the adoption of GM corn. The results of the study suggest that maize growers in the Ashanti region are willing to try GM maize, contrary to the current government restrictions.
    Keywords: Producers and Consumer attitudes toward Biotechnology in Ghana, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2011
  2. By: Simplice A, Asongu
    Abstract: Our generation is experiencing the greatest demographic transition and Africa is at the center of it. There is mounting concern over rising unemployment and depleting per capita income accruing there-from. We look at the issue in this paper from a long run perspective by examining the nature of the relationship between population growth and a plethora of investment indicators: public, private, foreign and domestic investments. Using asymmetric panels on data spanning from 1977 to 2007, we investigate effects of population growth on investment from Granger causality models. Our findings reveal a long-run positive causal linkage from population growth to only public investment. But for domestic investment, permanent fluctuations in human capital affect changes in other forms of investments. Not unexpected, no significant short-run causal relationship is found. For economic implications, sampled countries should take family planning and birth control policies seriously. Though growth in population may appear not to have an impact on investment in the short spell, in the distant future, it strangles public finances. Therefore measures should be adopted such that, rising unemployment rate resulting from population growth be accommodated by private sector investments. Seemingly, structural adjustments policies implemented by sampled countries have not had the desired investment effects.
    Keywords: Productivity, investment, human capital, asymmetric panel, causality, Africa
    JEL: O10 J00 C33 O40
    Date: 2011–02–14
  3. By: Caruso, Raul
    Abstract: This paper presents first a theoretical model of conflict between two agents characterized by a two-sector economy. In a contested sector two agents struggle to appropriate the maximum possible fraction of a contestable output. In an uncontested sector, they hold secure property rights over the production of some goods. Agents split their resource endowment between ‘butter’, ‘guns’ and ‘ice-cream’. Eventually, tradable goods made of butter and ice-cream produced by conflicting parties are both sold to the Rest of the world. Therefore, the opportunity cost of conflict depends also on relative profitability of contested and uncontested production. In particular, productivity of uncontested production and profitability of contested sectors are countervailing forces. The empirical section focused on a panel of Sub-Saharan African countries for the period 1995-2006. Results are not fully conclusive. However, there is robust evidence that prices of manufactures (interpreted as the uncontested ice-cream) are negatively associated with the likelihood of a civil war. Eventually, international price of manufactures is also associated with a higher GDP per capita growth rate. The concluding remark seems to be that an increase in world prices of manufactures would make civil wars less likely.
    Keywords: Theoretical model of conflict; Civil war; resource curse; butter guns and ice-cream; structure of the economy; commodity prices; MUV; panel probit analysis
    JEL: D74 O19 C33
    Date: 2011–03
  4. By: Behar, Alberto; Edwards, Lawrence
    Abstract: Do Southern African Development Community countries trade enough with each other and with the rest of the world? Although its share of world trade has fallen, appropriate benchmarking shows that, controlling for gross domestic product and other characteristics, Southern African Development Community countries have experienced an increase in openness that is comparable to other developing countries. Once market size and geography are taken into account, trade between Southern African Development Community countries is actually high. Southern African Development Community countries also trade more products with each other than they do with the rest of the world. In this sense, and contrary to stylized fears, the Southern African Development Community region is quite integrated. Although the Southern African Development Community has reduced its tariffs, the structure remains complex and could be lowered on intermediates. Other impediments make it costly and difficult to move goods, but are at levels that are comparable with countries at similar levels of development. Although this may be surprising, there is still scope for improvement and the disadvantageous geography of the Southern African Development Community makes it important for other trade impediments to be reduced.
    Keywords: Free Trade,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Trade Policy,Trade Law
    Date: 2011–04–01
  5. By: Cissokho, Lassana
    Abstract: In this paper, I use a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium to evaluate, for the economy of Senegal, the dynamic effects of an economic Partnership Agreement between West African countries and the European Union. In the simulation, the liberalization scheme is designed in a way similar to the interim agreement signed by Cote dâIvoire and Ghana. The effects described are the shifts from the baseline numbers. I found that the production of agricultural goods will decrease, affecting employment negatively, particularly in unskilled labor, since this sector is very labor intensive. In fact, employment drops at around 0.2 percent a year, during the simulation period (2012-2030). GDP grows on average by 1.9 percent a year. The effects of the economic partnership agreement closely mirror the results of a free trade agreement between Senegal and the European Union, implying that a customs union between West African countries is not necessary to reap of the benefit of the former.
    Keywords: Economic Partnership Agreement, Free Trade Area, Dynamic Computable General Economic, Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2010–12
  6. By: Chiputwa, Brian; Langyintuo, Augustine S.; Wall, Patrick
    Abstract: Conventional agricultural practices such as the use of the moldboard plough are no longer sustainable due to their extensive soil degradation effects. As a panacea, several Conservation Agriculture (CA) technologies have been promoted to improve soil structure and water conservation. However, adoption of these technologies has been resisted by smallholder farmers and identifying causes of the low adoption rates to facilitate intervention strategies remains a challenge to development practitioners. Using data from 100 farmers, this paper uses a Tobit application to assess the underlying factors important in determining farmersâ adoption of zero-tillage, crop rotation and contour ridging technologies. Empirical results suggest that adoption and use intensity of each of these technologies is affected by a set of distinct household factors. There is also evidence to show complementarities in adoption and use of these technologies, suggesting the need to tailor awareness and promotional strategies depending on the technology in question and socio-economic background of target farmers.
    Keywords: Conservation Agriculture (CA), Conventional Farming (CF) technology, Tobit Model, Adoption, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Farm Management,
    Date: 2010–08
  7. By: Sewando,, Ponsian T.; Mdoe, N. Y. S.; Mutabazi, K.D.S
    Abstract: Abstract: The study was conducted to determine farmers’ preferential choice decision of alternative cassava value chain strands and as well as factors behind such decisions in Morogoro rural District, Tanzania. Factor analysis was first used to reduce and identify the factors (variables for further analysis whereby the factors with highest eigen-value were applied to develop factor scores to measure the attitudinal variables. Results indicate that farmers have positive risk attitude towards participation in the alternative cassava value chain strands for commercialization. A count data model known as Poisson model was applied to determine the factors which influenced this attitude. Results indicated that farm size, experience, female-headed households and land-holding had influenced the farmers’ preferential choice decision. Recommendations for enhancing farmers’ participation in profitable cassava value chain strands are strengthening coordination, provision of improved cassava varieties and introduction of cassava processing technologies.
    Keywords: Preferential choice decisions; factor analysis; cassava farmers; risk attitude; Poisson model
    JEL: D8
    Date: 2011–03–23
  8. By: David E. Bloom et al. (Harvard School of Public Health)
    Abstract: The Next Generation Task Force was convened to explore Nigeria's future at a time of rapid demographic, social, and economic change. Over the next 20 years, Nigeria will experience huge growth in the number of young adults in its society. If these young people are healthy, well educated, and find productive employment, they could boost the country's economy and reinvigorate it culturally and politically. If not, they could be a force for instability and social unrest. The Task Force report is intended to catalyse a broader debate on Nigeria's future – and especially the needs of its young people. The next generation is beginning to find its voice. If Nigeria can harness its ideas and energy, then its future will surely be bright.
    Keywords: Nigeria, demography, growth
    Date: 2010–10
  9. By: Onour, Ibrahim
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper to analyse financial stability in small open economy, with dual foreign exchange markets, enduring political uncertainty and facing the likelihood of perminant adverse export shock. The finding in the paper indicate, given capital outflow is maintained at minimal level, there exist stable equilibrium exchange rates, despite the adverse export shock. However, for the foreign exchange market to adjust more quickly towards a new steady state equilibrium the central bank need to build sufficient foreign exchange reserves. If the reserve level remains at low levels the recovery process from the adverse shock will take longer time, as periodic devaluation of the official rate remain the only available tool for the central bank. When expanding fiscal deficit and declining official reserves force the government adopting a floating exchange rate system, our model predict depreciation of foreign exchange rate is identical to domestic money growth.
    Keywords: parallel rate; official rate; Stability; Steady-state
    JEL: E0 C02 E44
    Date: 2010–10–27
  10. By: Cogneau, Denis; Jedwab, Rémi
    Abstract: We look at the drastic cut of the administered cocoa producer price in 1990 Côte d'Ivoire and study to which extent cocoa producers' children suffered from this severe aggregate shock in terms of school enrollment, labor, height stature and morbidity. Using pre-crisis (1985-88) and post- crisis (1993) data, we propose a difference-in-difference strategy to identify the causal effect of the cocoa shock on child outcomes, whereby we compare children of cocoa-producing households and children of other farmers living in the same district or the same village. This causal effect is shown to be rather strong for the four child outcomes we examine. Hence human capital investments are definitely procyclical in this context. We also argue that the difference-in-difference variations can be interpreted as private income effects, likely to derive from tight liquidity constraints.
    Keywords: Education; Health; Child Labor; Commodity price Education; Health; Child Labor; Commodity price
    JEL: I12 I21 O12
    Date: 2010–05
  11. By: Bizimana, Jean Claude; Bessler, David A.; Angerer, Jay P.
    Abstract: Replaced with revised version of paper 02/22/11.
    Keywords: cointegration, structural breaks, market integration, Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, International Development, Livestock Production/Industries,
    Date: 2011

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