nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2010‒11‒13
fifteen papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Divide and Rule or the Rule of the Divided? Evidence from Africa By Stelios Michalopoulos; Elias Papaioannou
  2. Rethinking the (European) Foundations of Sub-Saharan African Regional Economic Integration: A Political Economy Essay By Peter Draper
  3. Discussion Sessions Coupled with Microfinancing May Enhance the Roles of Women in Household Decision-Making in Burundi By Giulia Ferrari; Radha Iyengar
  4. Efficient Development Portfolio Design for Sub Saharan Africa By Zon, Adriaan van; Wiebe, Kirsten
  5. Haki Yetu (It’s Our Right): Determinants of Post-Election Violence in Kenya By Takashi Yamano; Yuki Tanaka; Raphael Gitau
  6. The interface between policy reforms, household livelihoods and farm-nonfarm linkages: insights from a village economy in rural Ethiopia By Ferede T.
  7. The Role of Land Certification in Reducing Gender Gaps in Productivity in Rural Ethiopia By Bezabih, Mintewab; Holden, Stein
  8. Assets, Shocks, and Poverty Traps in Rural Mozambique By Lena Giesbert; Kati Schindler
  9. Decomposing Terms of Trade Fluctuations in Ethiopia By Josef L. Loening; Masato Higashi
  10. The Impact of Transitory Income on Birth Weights: Evidence from a Blackout in Zanzibar By Alfredo Burlando
  11. Economic Growth and the HIV/AIDS Pandemic: Evidence from the Early 21st Century Copper Boom By Nicholas Wilson
  12. Politique active d'emploi et employabilité des jeunes dans la ville d'Abidjan By Clément Kouadio Kouakou
  13. « Femmes et Coquillages » pour une gestion durable des ressources conchylicoles dans le Delta du Saloum au Sénégal By Fatou, Ndoye; Pascale, Moity-Maïzi
  14. Antiretroviral Therapy and Demand for HIV Testing: Evidence from Zambia By Nicholas Wilson
  15. Accounting for heterogeneity in growth incidence in Cameroon By Essama-Nssah, , B.; Bassol3, Leandre; Paul, Saumik

  1. By: Stelios Michalopoulos; Elias Papaioannou
    Abstract: We investigate jointly the importance of contemporary country-level institutional structures and local ethnicity-specific pre-colonial institutions in shaping comparative regional development in Africa. We utilize information on the spatial distribution of African ethnicities before colonization and exploit within ethnicity (across countries) and within-country (across ethnicities) regional variation in economic performance, as proxied by satellite light density at night. The fact that political boundaries across the African landscape partitioned ethnic groups in different countries, thus subjecting identical cultures to different country-level institutions, offers a regression discontinuity framework. After identifying the partitioned ethnicities we document a positive cross-sectional association between national institutions and regional economic development. However, our ethnicity fixed-effects specifications show that differences in countrywide institutional arrangements do not explain differences in regional economic performance within ethnic groups. In contrast, we document that local ethnic traits proxied by tribal pre-colonial political institutions and class stratification exert even today a significant effect on regional development. The positive within country effect of pre-colonial institutions also obtains in regions of partitioned ethnicities along the national boundaries.
    Keywords: Africa, Borders, Ethnicities, Development, Institutions
    JEL: O10 O40 O43 N17 Z10
    Date: 2010
  2. By: Peter Draper
    Abstract: Support for regional economic integration in Africa runs high amongst the continent’s international development partners and African elites. However, its expression in European forms of economic integration is not appropriate to regional capacities and in some cases may do more harm than good. This lacuna is exacerbated by technical and theoretical analyses rooted either in economics or international relations literatures. This paper sets out to reconceptualise the foundations of African economic integration through reviewing key debates within each literature and comparing the results across disciplinary boundaries. Overall, I conclude that a much more limited approach is required, one that prioritises trade facilitation and regulatory cooperation in areas related primarily to the conduct of business; underpinned by a security regime emphasising the good governance agenda at the domestic level. Care should be taken to design the ensuing schemes in such a way as to avoid contributing to major implementation and capacity challenges in establishing viable and legitimate states. In doing so, the presence of regional leaders with relatively deep pockets– South Africa in the Southern African case – points to the imperative of building such limited regional economic arrangements around key states.<BR>Le soutien à l’intégration économique régionale en Afrique est fort au sein des partenaires au développement du continent et des élites africaines. Cependant, une intégration régionale à l’Européenne ne correspond pas aux capacités régionales, et dans certains cas, pourrait faire plus de mal que de bien. Cette lacune est exacerbée par les analyses techniques et théoriques basées sur les littératures de l’économie et des relations internationales. Cet article vise à reconceptualiser les fondations de l’intégration économique africaine en passant en revue les principaux débats au sein de chaque littérature, et en comparant les résultats de manière pluridisciplinaire. Globalement, nous concluons qu’une approche bien plus limitée est requise : mettre l’accent sur la facilitation du commerce et la coopération en matière de régulation dans des domaines relevant en premier lieu des affaires, dans le cadre d’un régime de sécurité qui renforce la bonne gouvernance au niveau national. Une attention particulière devrait être portée à la conception des programmes, de telle sorte qu’ils n’aggravent pas les problèmes de capacité et de mise en oeuvre qu’on rencontre dans l’édification d’Etats viables et légitimes. Ce faisant, la présence de leaders régionaux au poids économique important – l’Afrique du Sud dans le cas de l’Afrique australe – indique l’impératif d’une construction de ces accords économiques régionaux autour d’Etats stratégiques.
    Keywords: economic integration, integration, international trade associations, intégration économique, intégration, organisations du commerce international
    JEL: F15
    Date: 2010–10–25
  3. By: Giulia Ferrari; Radha Iyengar
    Abstract: The empowerment of women within households remains a major issue around the worldincluding in Africa. We have conducted a study in Burundi coupling discussion sessions withmicrofinancing to determine if they enhance the role of women in decisions regardinghousehold purchases and the reduction of domestic violence. We compare our findings to thatfrom a published study in South Africa that combined discussion sessions on life skills andhealth on reduction in domestic violence and decisions on economic issues. Both studies usedrandomized controlled experiments. Both studies show a trend towards increases inhousehold authority, with the Burundi study showing statistical significance. In South Africathere was a large, albeit short lived decrease in domestic violence. In Burundi there was smallreduction but trend suggest a longer duration. The effects on overall empowerment are small.These studies suggest that a more sustained use of discussion sessions could be beneficial.Future research could focus on the longer term effects of the use of discussion sessions andinvestigate how the observed impacts can be sustained in magnitude and duration.
    Keywords: domestic violence, microfinance, Burundi
    JEL: J12 J18
    Date: 2010–10
  4. By: Zon, Adriaan van (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); Wiebe, Kirsten (UNU-MERIT)
    Abstract: We use Financial Optimum Portfolio Theory to obtain Optimum Development (Policy) Portfolios for Sub Saharan African (SSA) Countries. We estimate a model linking public expenditures on health, education and general government expenditures to the Human Development Index (HDI). Given the uncertainty of the estimated impact parameters, we obtain optimum expenditure portfolios and use them to measure the effectiveness of actual public spending. Actual HDI performance is in part due to pure chance, but significant improvements in HDI performance could be realized through the reallocation of public spending towards health and education. For some SSA countries we find that a double dividend exists, since an expansion of public expenditures may lead to both a rise in HDI performance and a fall in its corresponding variance. We also find that HDI shortfalls due to chance are uncorrelated with governance indicators, while inefficient spending and good governance are negatively correlated.
    Keywords: Human Development Index, Public spending, Optimum Portfolio Theory
    JEL: H50 I00 O20
    Date: 2010
  5. By: Takashi Yamano (Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development; National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies); Yuki Tanaka (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies); Raphael Gitau (Tegemeo Institute)
    Abstract: During the violence following the 2007 presidential election in Kenya, it has been reported that around 1,000 people were killed and over 500,000 people were displaced. In this paper, we investigate the root causes of the violence by using a panel survey of 295 rural households living Rift Valley and Nyanza Provinces, where the violence took place. Among our sample households, 11 percent of male members and 9 percent of female members were victims of the violence, 11 percent of households were displaced, and 23 percent of households hosted at least one internally displaced person. The results show that certain ethnic groups had higher probabilities of being victims of the violence. In addition, we find that members of households without land titles were victimized more than those with land titles, but they were less likely to leave their homes. They could be victimized because the mobs wanted to chase them away, but they hesitated to leave their homes, knowing that it would be difficult for them to retain their land without land titles. The land issue was clearly one of the root causes of the violence, and the issue should be solved or at least addressed to prevent similar conflicts in the future.
    Keywords: Violence, Election, Internal Displacement, Kenya, Africa
    Date: 2010–09
  6. By: Ferede T.
    Abstract: After two decades of agricultural-led development strategies since the early 1990s, economic growth has been erratic, land degradation has worsened, and the country has failed to enjoy significant drop in the number of food insecure population. By using a complementary qualitative and quantitative analysis, this study shades some insights regarding the effects of policy reforms on household livelihoods in rural Ethiopia. The qualitative results indicate that agricultural productivity declined and households experienced a downward livelihood trajectories. Farm households have stuck in a stagnant and low productivity agriculture as output growth is largely driven by employment expansion with limited or no productivity gain. Simulation results based on the village computable general equilibrium (CGE) model indicate that growth in agricultural productivity does not promote the development of the nonfarm sector in the form of labour-intensive small businesses. In settings characterized by low productivity, complementary reforms are required to trigger growth and to improve household livelihoods. The growth and employment linkages are strengthened when agricultural growth is driven by a set of mutually reinforcing policy reforms.
    Date: 2010–08
  7. By: Bezabih, Mintewab; Holden, Stein
    Abstract: The importance of providing secure land rights to smallholder farmers in developing countries is now widely recognized. In line with this, our paper analyzes the impact of land certification on boosting productivity of female-headed households in Ethiopia, which are believed to be systematically more tenure insecure than their male counterparts. Based on parametric and semi-parametric analyses, the impact of certification on plot-level productivity is positive and significant. However, certification has different impacts on male and female productivity: male-headed households gain significantly and women gain only modestly. Hence, the results indicate that, while certification is clearly beneficial to farm-level productivity, it does not necessarily lead to more gains for female-headed households.
    Keywords: productivity, female-headed households, land certification
    JEL: D2 Q12 Q15
    Date: 2010–11–03
  8. By: Lena Giesbert; Kati Schindler
    Abstract: Using a micro-level approach to poverty traps, this paper explores welfare dynamics among households in post-war rural Mozambique. Conceptually, the paper builds on an asset-based approach to poverty and tests empirically, with household panel data, for the existence of a poverty trap. Findings indicate that there is little differentiation in productive asset endowments over time and that rural households gravitate towards a single equilibrium, which is at a surprisingly low level. The analysis shows that shocks and household coping behavior help to explain the observed poverty dynamics. The single low-level equilibrium points to an overall development trap in the rural farm-based economy. This is attributed to the long-term impact of the civil war, which has consolidated unfavorable economic conditions in rural areas and limited new economic opportunities outside of the agricultural sector.
    Keywords: Asset-based approach, Mozambique, poverty trap, shocks, violent conflict
    JEL: D31 I32 O12 O18
    Date: 2010
  9. By: Josef L. Loening (World Bank, Washington); Masato Higashi (Columbia University)
    Abstract: This paper proposes a technique to decompose short-run fluctuations in the terms of trade. Using Ethiopia as an example, we decompose the commodity terms of trade into various components to measure the impact of price and volume shifts as well as export diversification. We use monthly data from the past decade, including periods during the global food and financial crises. Our findings suggest that diversification out of traditional coffee exports to other export commodities successfully mitigated a terms of trade shock. Continued export diversification will be beneficial.
    Keywords: Terms of Trade, Food Price Crisis, Financial Crisis, Ethiopia
    JEL: F14 O11 O55
    Date: 2010–10–08
  10. By: Alfredo Burlando (University of Oregon Economics Department)
    Abstract: Do transitory income shocks affect infant health? I find evidence that birth weights fell following a temporary income reduction caused by an unexpected, month-long blackout in Zanzibar. Relying on 350 household surveys collected during field work, I show that the 2008 blackout reduced labor supply of workers in electricity-dependent jobs by an average of 25%, with no effect on workers in other sectors. The income shock was temporary. Using over 20,000 birth records from a maternity ward, I document a reduction in the average birth weight of children exposed to the blackout while in utero, and an increase in the probability of low birth weight. Supporting a causal interpretation of these results, the reduction in weights is correlated with measures of maternal exposure to the blackout. In particular, reductions in birth weights were largest among children from wards with intermediate levels of employment in electrified sectors. The two causes that are most consistent with these results are a blackout-induced decline in maternal nutrition, and maternal stress. Alternative explanations are examined, including the possible effects of a temporary fertility shift. It is shown that the blackout increased births, but that selection into pregnancy cannot explain the drop in birth weights.
    Keywords: Neonatal health, Birthweights, Nutrition, Fertility, Transitory income, Blackouts, Africa
    JEL: O15 O14 J29 I12
    Date: 2010–10–02
  11. By: Nicholas Wilson (Williams College)
    Abstract: Copper mining is among the largest economic activities in Zambia, comprising close to ten percent of GDP. Between 2003 and 2008, the price of copper increased by over 400 percent. In response, copper production in Zambia increased by 70 percent and employment in copper mining increased by nearly 200 percent. This paper examines the effect of this large and sustained economic shock on sexual behavior and the spread of HIV/AIDS in Zambia. I use nationally representative survey data on sexual behavior before and during the copper boom in conjunction with detailed spatial data on the location of survey respondents and copper mines. The results indicate that the copper boom reduced transactional sex, multiple partnerships, alcohol use at sex, coital frequency, pregnancy rates, and marital rates in the copper mining cities. These effects were concentrated among young adults and selective in-migration to the copper mining cities appears to have contributed to the reduction in sexual activity.
    Keywords: commodity shocks, copper mining, HIV/AIDS, Zambia
    JEL: I18 J10 O12
    Date: 2010–10
  12. By: Clément Kouadio Kouakou (UFR-SEG, Université de Cocody-Abidjan)
    Abstract: Cette étude est une contribution à l’analyse du processus d’insertion professionnelle des jeunes urbains à Abidjan. A partir d’une enquête d’insertion professionnelle, l’étude montre que les politiques d’emploi jeunes ont relativement amélioré la situation des bénéficiaires à travers des effets de travailleurs additionnels et une mobilité professionnelle relativement plus favorable. Cependant, les résultats laissent apparaître une transition chaotique des jeunes sur le marché du travail urbain en Côte d’Ivoire, mais également un ciblage imparfait dans la sélection des bénéficiaires. En effet, l’estimation d’un modèle de durée de type Weibull avec instrumentation du passage par le programme d’insertion montre d’une part que les programmes ont souffert d’un mauvais ciblage des bénéficiaires dû au fait que la sélection n’a pas tenu compte de la dépendance temporelle des jeunes aux états qui amenuisent leur employabilité comme la durée et le nombre de période d’inactivité et de chômage et la situation sociale des jeune. D’autre part, le modèle de durée réfute l’existence d’un effet significatif sur la sortie du chômage dans la situation post programme. This study is a contribution to the analysis of the employability process of urban youth in Côte d'Ivoire. Through an insertion survey, the study shows that youth employment policies have relatively improved situation of beneficiaries through the effects of additional workers and occupational mobility relatively more favorable. However, the results reveal a chaotic transition of youth in the urban labor market in Côte d’Ivoire, but also an imperfect targeting in the selection of beneficiaries. Indeed, estimating a Weibull duration model with instrumentation of insertion program shows both that the programs have suffered from poor targeting of beneficiaries because the selection did not consider the time dependence on the status of youth that erode their employability such as the duration and number of periods of inactivity and unemployment and social situation of the young. On the other hand, the duration model refutes the existence of a significant effect on the exit from unemployment in the post program.(Full text in french)
    JEL: C13 C14 C41 J64
    Date: 2010–10
  13. By: Fatou, Ndoye; Pascale, Moity-Maïzi
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Labor and Human Capital,
    Date: 2010–10–27
  14. By: Nicholas Wilson (Williams College)
    Abstract: This paper examines the effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on demand for HIV testing and of ART-induced testing on demand for risky sexual behavior. I provide a model of sexual behavior decision-making under uncertainty and estimate the structural parameters of the model using nationally representative survey data from Zambia on HIV testing decisions before and after the introduction of ART. The empirical results indicate that although the introduction of ART increased demand for HIV testing, the ART allocation process limited the prevention benefit of ART-induced testing. Simulation results show that eliminating this prevention inefficiency while holding the supply of ART constant would increase the prevention impact of ART-induced testing more than four-fold. More generally, the analysis indicates that existing studies which examine "universal" testing or quasi-experimental testing programs understate the efficacy of standard voluntary counseling and testing programs.
    Keywords: HIV/AIDS, Beliefs, Selection, Rationing, Zambia
    JEL: D45 I18 O12
    Date: 2010–10
  15. By: Essama-Nssah, , B.; Bassol3, Leandre; Paul, Saumik
    Abstract: This paper presents counterfactual decompositions based on both the Shapley method and a generalization of the Oaxaca-Blinder approach to identify proximate factors that might explain differences in the distribution of economic welfare in Cameroon in 1996-2007. In particular, the analysis uses re-centered influence function regressions to link the growth incidence curve for 2001-2007 to household characteristics and account for heterogeneity of impact across quantiles in terms of the composition (or endowment) effect and structural (or price) effect. The analysis finds that the level of the growth incidence curve is explained by the endowment effect while its shape is driven by the price effect. Observed gains at the bottom of the distribution are due to returns to endowments. The rest of the gains are accounted for by the composition effect. Further decomposition of these effects shows that the composition effect is determined mainly by household demographics while the structural effect is shaped by the sector of employment and geography. Finally, analysis of the rural-urban gap in living standards shows that, for the poorest households in both sectors, differences in household characteristics matter more than the returns to those characteristics. The opposite is true for better-off households.
    Keywords: Rural Poverty Reduction,Achieving Shared Growth,Regional Economic Development,Economic Theory&Research
    Date: 2010–11–01

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