nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2010‒10‒09
ten papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Civil War, Climate Change and Development: A Scenario Study for Sub-Saharan Africa By Devitt, Conor; Tol, Richard S. J.
  2. Financial Development and Income Inequality: Evidence from African Countries By Enowbi Batuo, Michael; Guidi, Francesco; Mlambo, Kupukile
  3. Indirect Taxation and Gender Equity: Evidence from South Africa By Daniela Casale
  4. Economic Effects of Clustering of Ethnically Similar Communities in Kenya: Application of Spatial Correlation Model By Nobuaki Hamaguchi
  5. Sexual Risk Taking Among Young Adults in Cape Town: Effects of Expected Health and Income By Mintewab Bezabih; Andrea Mannberg; Martine Visser
  6. A New Avenue for Understanding the Nutritional Health of Children in Guinea By Ohiniba Carole Bruce; Dorothée Boccanfuso
  7. Community-Based Initiatives in Enhancing OVC Service Delivery: Prospects and Challenges in Post Conflict North Central Uganda By Omwa, Samuel Samson
  8. Une approche Macroprudentielle du risque systémique en zone CEMAC By Nguenang, Christian; Kamgna, Sévérin yves; Tinang, Nzeusseu Jules
  9. Analyse du rapport Mutsinzi sur l’attentat du 6 avril 1994 contre l’avion présidentiel rwandais By Reyntjens, Filip
  10. L’économie politique de la filiere du charbon de bois à Kinshasa et à Lubumbashi By Trefon, Theodore; Hendriks,Thomas; Kabuyaya, Noël; Ngoy, Balthazar

  1. By: Devitt, Conor; Tol, Richard S. J.
    Abstract: We construct a model of development, civil war, and climate change. There are multiple interactions. Economic growth reduces the probability of civil war and the vulnerability to climate change. Climate change increases the probability of civil war. The impacts of climate change, civil war, and civil war in the neighbouring countries reduce economic growth. The model has two potential poverty traps ? a climate-change-induced one and a civil-war-induced one ? and the two poverty traps may reinforce one another. We calibrate the model to Sub-Saharan Africa and conduct a double Monte Carlo analysis accounting for both parameter uncertainty and stochasticity. We find the following. Although we use the SRES scenarios as our baseline, and thus assume rapid economic growth in Africa and convergence of African living standards to the rest of the world, the impact of civil war and climate change (ignored in SRES) are sufficiently strong to keep a number of countries in Africa in deep poverty with a high probability. Other countries enjoy exponential growth; and some countries may either be trapped in poverty or experience rapid growth. The SRES scenarios were wrong to ignore the impact of climate change and civil war on economic development.
    Keywords: civil war/climate change/economic development/Climate change/growth/Impacts of climate change/poverty/scenarios/uncertainty
    Date: 2010–09
  2. By: Enowbi Batuo, Michael; Guidi, Francesco; Mlambo, Kupukile
    Abstract: This paper present empirical evidence on how financial development is related to income distribution in a panel data set covering 22 African countries for the period between 1990 to 2004. A dynamic panel estimation technique (GMM) is employ and the findings indicate that income inequality decrease as economies develop their financial sector, which is consistent with the bulk of theoretical and empirical research. The result also confirm that educational attainment play a significant role in making income distribution more equal. We also find no evidence supporting the Greenwood-Jovanovic hypothesis of an inverted-U- shaped relationship between financial sector development and inequality.
    Keywords: Financial development; income inequality; Africa G20; D63; 055
    JEL: D63 O55 G2
    Date: 2010–08
  3. By: Daniela Casale
    Abstract: This paper explores the equity implications of indirect or consumption taxes from a gender perspective, using detailed expenditure data for South Africa. While a growing literature on the incidence of indirect taxes investigates their impact on the income distribution in developing countries, there is little work on whether indirect taxes have differential gender outcomes. Gender bias is likely to exist in taxes that are levied on consumption expenditure, because men and women (and their households) spend their incomes on different types of goods, or on goods that are taxed differently. To estimate the gender incidence of indirect taxes, this study explores differences between households that are classified as more ‘female’ or more ‘male’ according to their demographic and economic attributes. The results suggest that the zero-rating of a selection of basic foodstuffs and fuel for household use is important in protecting ‘female-type’ households, especially those in the lowest expenditure quintiles and with children, from bearing an otherwise disproportionate share of the burden of these taxes. In contrast, high taxes on alcohol, tobacco and fuel for private transport result in a higher incidence on ‘male-type’ households, those in the middle and top quintiles and those without children. The paper also suggests ways in which the indirect tax system could be refined to further reduce the large gender (and income) inequities that exist in South Africa.
    Keywords: indirect taxes, incidence, gender equity, South Africa
    JEL: D63 H22 J16
    Date: 2010
  4. By: Nobuaki Hamaguchi (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University)
    Abstract: Using regional data of Kenya, we found that income spillovers depend on ethnic similarity, which suggests the influence of ethnic bias. This result implies, for policy making, that the question of interregional transaction costs cannot be narrowly focused on problems of transportation infrastructure but it is also related with ethnic divisions in African context.
    Keywords: Ethnic diversity, transaction cost
    JEL: R58 O18
    Date: 2010–10
  5. By: Mintewab Bezabih; Andrea Mannberg; Martine Visser (SALDRU, School of Economics, University of Cape Town)
    Abstract: The wide prevalence of HIV in Africa has long been associated with seemingly irrational levels of sexual risk taking. Hence understanding the rationale behind risky sexual behavior is critical for designing effective prevention policies. This paper empirically assesses links between expectations of future health and income on sexual risk taking. An important contribution of the paper lies in combining a wide range of variables measuring risky sexual behavior such that the maximum information possible is extracted from, and adequate weights are attached to each measure, as opposed to previous studies that are based on individual measures or arbitrary aggregations. The findings indicate that expected income and health and future uncertainty are significant determinants of current patterns of sexual risk taking. From a policy perspective, the results suggest that reducing poverty and improving social insurance as well as reducing the taboo related to talking about HIV, and further investigating the relatively low degree of condom use of women may constitute important issues to be addressed.
    Date: 2010–05
  6. By: Ohiniba Carole Bruce (GREDI, Faculte d'administration, Université de Sherbrooke); Dorothée Boccanfuso (GREDI, Faculte d'administration, Université de Sherbrooke)
    Abstract: In spite of notable progress in medicine, infant-juvenile mortality remains a major issue in developing countries. One of the main causes of this mortality, namely malnutrition, continues to be a serious problem, and its reduction remains the primary target of many health policies developed in a number of countries and organizations. In Guinea, contrary to certain other African countries, the rate of growth retardation for children under 5 years old has risen from 26 to 35% and that of underweight from 23 to 26% between 1999 and 2005. To be able to recommend policies seeking to improve the nutritional status of Guinean children, we use an approach based on the decomposition of Yun (2005) to decompose the gap of the nutritional status of Guinean children that was observed between 1999 and 2005 into the detailed effect of its characteristics and that of the coefficients of the characteristics. In our study, the health status of children is represented by two indicators, namely the Z-score height-for-age and the Z-score weight-for-age of children. The results stemming from the decomposition of Yun (2005) indicate that, regardless of the health indicator considered, the aggregate effect of the coefficients is substantially stronger than that of the characteristics. Our study is a pioneering one for Africa insofar as it seeks to fill gaps in studies along similar lines, which very often limit themselves to explaining the health status of children in a given period, or comparing the health status of children between two periods.
    Keywords: Children’s health, anthropometric indicators, Millennium Development Goals, Guinea
    JEL: I10 O12 O55 P46
    Date: 2010–09–27
  7. By: Omwa, Samuel Samson
    Abstract: This study seeks to greatly contribute to understanding of OVC community care. Using mainly ethnographic qualitative evidence from Ngai Sub County, in Oyam district, northern Uganda, it addresses the challenges and complexities that many a ingenious community OVC care institutions are grappling with in providing an array of care and support services to the OVCs. It argues that an appropriate informed synergistic response in tandem with local aspirations has the potential to greatly stem the impact of the orphaning crisis in north central Uganda. The analysis of the findings provides vital information and prospects regarding the de-institutionalisation of OVC support and response services in the country.
    Date: 2010
  8. By: Nguenang, Christian; Kamgna, Sévérin yves; Tinang, Nzeusseu Jules
    Abstract: In this study, we identifie a small number of indicators of macro-prudential supervision important to monitoring of the banking’s system. We use the theory of Markov stochastic processes to measure the systemic risk of CEMAC by calculating the degree of fragility of system and we determine the variables that influent on it degradation by using a logit model on panel data. Following this analysis, it appears that the claims on the private sector in a period, foreign direct investment (FDI), private sector credit and exports increase the risk of failure of the banking system, while the equity, The rate of inflation, exchange rates, while rising, downward influence the likelihood of degradation of the banking system in CEMAC
    Keywords: Banking System; Macro-Prudential Indicators;Degradation; Systemic risk;Markov stochastic processes; Monetary Policy CEMAC; BEAC; ;
    JEL: C13 C12 G28 G21
    Date: 2010
  9. By: Reyntjens, Filip
    Abstract: The report of the Mutsinzi commission attempts to show that President Habyarimana’s airplane was not downed by the RPF, as the French investigating judge Bruguière tried to demonstrate, but by Hutu radicals who were close to the main victim of the attack. The report raises a number of serious questions. The committee claims to be independent, but all the commissioners are members of the RPF, which means that it is both judge and party. This is made abundantly clear throughout the report, which treats as solid evidence testimonies showing the complicity of Hutu extremists, but shows total disregard for the evidence pointing in the other direction. While the committee claims to have interviewed hundreds of witnesses, the validity of their testimonies raises serious doubts. Of those identified, dozens are members of the former government army FAR, all of them interviewed under extreme pressure, in full awareness of what they were expected to say, and of the price to be paid if they did not. As this analysis shows, the committee generally proceeds by first presenting unsubstantiated hypotheses or even downright untruths as facts; the accumulation of these “facts” then allows to establish the “truth”. There are now two radically opposed versions of the truth as to who is responsible for the shooting down of the presidential plane: one is inscribed in the findings of the Bruguière inquiry, the other in the Mutsinzi report. They both point fingers at suspects, albeit different ones, and they both indicate that a crime has been committed. The natural way of dealing with such findings is to conduct a contradictory debate before a court of law. However, it would seem that both Rwanda and France, in their attempt to improve their relations, are intent on sacrificing justice on the altar of political expediency. The Rwandan people deserve better than such a cynical outcome.
    Date: 2010–01
  10. By: Trefon, Theodore; Hendriks,Thomas; Kabuyaya, Noël; Ngoy, Balthazar
    Abstract: Charcoal use in urban Congo expanded significantly in the early 1990s. While recourse to charcoal (makala) as cooking fuel existed during the early independence period, most urban households had access to electricity for domestic use. Population, pressure, poorly maintained infrastructures and state crisis combined to force people to rely on makala for their daily cooking needs. Trade networks developed to make the link between makala producers and consumers. This can be considered as a popular response to state failure and is the subject of this working paper. Our research followed the trade network that includes charcoal producers, transporters, middlemen, wholesalers and retailers and a host of other peripheral supporting actors who claim to „live miraculously? from the network. The main conclusion of the research is that this informal trade network thrives, despite hassles from state agents, because it provides a vital service to Congo's urban poor.
    Date: 2010–02

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