nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2010‒10‒02
twenty papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Wage Subsidies to Combat Unemployment and Poverty: Assessing South Africa’s Options By Justine Burns; Lawrence Edwards; Karl Pauw
  2. English Language Proficiency and Earnings in a Developing Country: The Case of South Africa By Daniela Casale; Dorrit Posel
  3. Forecasting Monetary Policy Rules in South Africa By Ruthira Naraidoo; Ivan Paya
  4. Forecasting Monetary Policy Rules in South Africa By Ivan Paya; Ruthira Naraidoo
  5. The Role of Primary Commodities in Economic Development: Sub-Saharan Africa versus Rest of the World By Fabrizio Carmignani; Abdur Chowdhury
  6. Underemployed women: an analysis of voluntary and involuntary part-time wage employment in South Africa By Colette Muller
  7. The Sustainability of South African Current Account Deficits By Peter Searle; Albert Touna Mama
  8. The Use of a Marshallian Macroeconomic Model for Policy Evaluation: Case of South Africa By Jacques Kibambe Ngoie; Arnold Zellner
  9. The Value of the Trout Fishery at Rhodes, North Eastern Cape, South Africa, A Travel Cost Analysis Using Count Data Models By M Du Preez; S G Hosking
  10. Evidence on the impact of minimum wage laws in an informal sector: Domestic workers in South Africa By Taryn Dinkelman; Vimal Ranchhod
  11. Macroeconomic uncertainty and emerging market stock market volatility: The case for South Africa By Z. Chinzara
  12. The Freetown Declaration: Countercyclical Policy for Africa By John Weeks
  13. Poverty and Land Redistribution: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from South Africa's LRAD program By Malcolm Keswell; Michael Carter
  14. A History With Evidence: Income inequality in the Dutch Cape Colony By Johan Fourie; Dieter von Fintel
  15. Public spending composition and public sector efficiency: Implications for growth and poverty reduction in Uganda By Sennoga, Edward B.; Matovu, John Mary
  16. Forecasting Key Macroeconomic Variables of the South African Economy: A Small Open Economy New Keynesian DSGE-VAR Model By Rangan Gupta; Rudi Steinbach
  17. The potential impact of the EU-ACP economic partnership Agreement: A case study of the Ugandan horticulture sector By Economic Policy Research Centre
  18. Growth by Destination (Where you Export Matters): Trade with China and Growth in African Countries By Mina Baliamoune-Lutz
  19. Les déterminants du niveau et de l’inégalité de la pauvreté au Cameroun : Une analyse de décomposition multidimensionnelle By Chameni Nembua, Célestin; Miamo Wendji, Clovis
  20. Différence de performance sociale des institutions de microfinance au Mali By Yaya Koloma

  1. By: Justine Burns (SALDRU, School of Economics, University of Cape Town); Lawrence Edwards (School of Economics, University of Cape Town); Karl Pauw (SALDRU, School of Economics, University of Cape Town)
    Abstract: Wage or employment subsidies have been used in both developed and developing countries to raise employment levels. Various advisers to the South African government have endorsed wage subsidies as a policy measure to deal with this country’s massive unemployment problem. This paper takes stock of the international literature and conducts an economywide macro-micro analysis to obtain insights into wage subsidy design and implementation issues facing developing countries. It also investigates whether this policy measure is appropriate in dealing with South Africa’s particular sources of unemployment. We argue that although wage subsidies may be successful at creating jobs in South Africa, they should not be seen as the primary or dominant policy instrument for dealing with the broader unemployment problem. To enhance the effectiveness of wage subsidies, they should preferably be linked to structured workplace training, be targeted to industries where employment will be responsive to changes in labor costs, and be focused on the youth. In the long run, addressing unemployment in South Africa requires policies that improve economic growth and the economy’s employment absorption capacity, that raise skills of new labor market entrants, that reduce labor market rigidities, and that promote effective job search, especially among the youth.
    Date: 2010–08
  2. By: Daniela Casale; Dorrit Posel
    Abstract: In this paper we explore the relationship between English language proficiency and earnings in South Africa, using new data from the first wave of the National Income Dynamics panel survey of 2008. Much of the literature on this topic has studied the impact on earnings of host country language acquisition among minority groups of immigrants to developed countries. In our study we analyse the returns to language skills in a developing country context where the dominant language of business, government and education is that of the former colony, although not more than one percent of the African majority population group speaks English as their home language. Our findings suggest large returns among Africans to reading and writing English very well, and particularly among those who have a tertiary education. We also briefly consider the implications of these results for language and education policy in South Africa in the post-apartheid period.
    Keywords: language proficiency, earnings, South Africa, language policy
    JEL: J24 J31 I21
    Date: 2010
  3. By: Ruthira Naraidoo; Ivan Paya
    Abstract: This paper is the first one to: (i) provide in-sample estimates of linear and nonlinear Taylor rules augmented with an indicator of financial stability for the case of South Africa, (ii) analyse the ability of linear and nonlinear monetary policy rule specifications as well as nonparametric and semiparametric models in forecasting the nominal interest rate setting that describes the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) policy decisions. Our results indicate, first, that asset prices are taken into account when setting interest rates; second, the existence of nonlinearities in the monetary policy rule; and third, forecasts constructed from combinations of all models perform particularly well and that there are gains from semiparametric models in forecasting the interest rates as the forecasting horizon lengthens.
    Keywords: Taylor rules, nonlinearity, nonparametric, semiparametric, forecasting
    JEL: C14 C51 C52 C53 E52 E58
    Date: 2010
  4. By: Ivan Paya; Ruthira Naraidoo
    Abstract: This paper is the .rst one to: (i) provide in-sample estimates of linear and nonlinear Taylor rules augmented with an indicator of .nancial stability for the case of South Africa, (ii) analyse the ability of linear and nonlinear monetary policy rule speci.cations as well as nonparametric and semiparametric models in forecasting the nominal interest rate setting that describes the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) policy decisions. Our results indicate, .rst, that asset prices are taken into account when setting interest rates; second, the existence of nonlinearities in the monetary policy rule; and third, forecasts constructed from combinations of all models perform particularly well and that there are gains from semiparametric models in forecasting the interest rates as the forecasting horizon lengthens.
    Keywords: Taylor rules, nonlinearity, nonparametric, semiparametric, forecasting
    Date: 2010
  5. By: Fabrizio Carmignani (School of Economics The University of Queensland); Abdur Chowdhury (Department of Economics Marquette University)
    Abstract: We study the nexus between natural resources and growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and find that SSA is indeed special: resources dependence retards growth in SSA, but not elsewhere. The natural resources curse is thus specific to SSA. We then show that this specificity does not depend on the type of primary commodities on which SSA specializes. Instead, the SSA specificity appears to arise from the interaction between institutions and natural resources.
    Keywords: primary commodities, growth, institutions
    JEL: O13 O40 Q00 F43
    Date: 2010–09
  6. By: Colette Muller
    Abstract: Using nationally representative household survey data from 1995 to 2006, this paper explores heterogeneity among female part-time wage (salaried) workers in post-apartheid South Africa, specifically distinguishing between individuals who choose to work part-time and part-time workers who report wanting to work longer hours. As in studies of voluntary and involuntary part-time employment in other countries, the findings show that involuntary part-time workers in South Africa are outnumbered by voluntary part-time workers. In contrast to other countries, however, involuntary underemployment in South Africa has not risen substantially over time, nor is there consistent evidence to suggest a positive correlation between involuntary underemployment and broad unemployment. Significant differences are found among part-time workers, with occupational characteristics specifically being identified as key correlates of involuntary part-time employment. The wage premium to female part-time employment in South Africa, identified in an earlier study, is shown to be robust also to a distinction among part-time workers, and involuntary part-time workers are found to have a stronger labour force attachment than women who choose to work part-time.
    Date: 2010
  7. By: Peter Searle; Albert Touna Mama
    Abstract: Deficits in the South African current account since 2003 have been met with growing concern by economists. As these deficits reached unprecedented levels, questions about the sustainability of the country's external position have begun to arise. This paper tests the sustainability of South Africa's current account deficits via a test of the country's intertemporal budget constraint. Following a similar methodology to Husted (1992) in testing for the sustainability of U.S. current account deficits and Wu, Fountas and Chen (1996) for U.S. and Canadian deficits, this paper employs the Engle and Granger (1987) ADF test for cointegration. An initial finding of an unsustainable current account position is reversed once structural breaks at 1994:1 and 2003:2 are controlled for in the cointegration equation. This investigation therefore concludes that South African current account deficit is sustainable.
    Keywords: deficit sustainability, cointegration, structural breaks, capital flows
    JEL: F30
    Date: 2010
  8. By: Jacques Kibambe Ngoie; Arnold Zellner
    Abstract: Using a disaggregated Marshallian Macroeconomic Model (MMM-DA), this paper investigates how the adoption of a set of 'free market reforms' may affect the economic growth rate of South Africa. Accounting for possible side effects mainly on the budget deficit, our findings suggest that the institution of the proposed policy reforms would yield a substantial growth in the aggregate annual real GDP. The resulting GDP growth rate could range from 5.3 percent to 9.8 percent depending on which variant of the reform policies is implemented.
    Keywords: Marshallian Macroeconometric Model; Disaggregation; Transfer functions.
    JEL: E27
    Date: 2010
  9. By: M Du Preez; S G Hosking
    Abstract: The National Environmental Management: Biodiversity Act, no.10 of 2004) makes provision for the presence of alien trout in South African waters by means of a zoning system, partly in recognition of the significant income generating potential of trout fishing in South Africa. This paper reports the first formal recreational valuation of a trout fishery in South Africa, the one in and around Rhodes village, North Eastern Cape. The valuation is carried out by applying the individual travel cost method using several count data models. The zero truncated negative binomial model yielded the most appealing results. It accounts for the non-negative integer nature of the trip data, for truncation and over-dispersion. The paper finds that in 2007 consumer surplus per day visit to the Rhodes trout fishery was R2 668, consumer surplus per trip visit was R13 072, and the total consumer surplus generated was R18 026 288.
    Date: 2010
  10. By: Taryn Dinkelman; Vimal Ranchhod (SALDRU, School of Economics, University of Cape Town)
    Abstract: What happens when a previously uncovered labor market is regulated? We exploit the introduction of a minimum wage in South Africa and variation in the intensity of this law to identify increases in wages and formal contract coverage, and no significant effects on employment on the intensive or extensive margins for domestic workers. These large, partial responses to the law are somewhat surprising, given the lack of monitoring and enforcement in this informal sector. We interpret these changes as evidence that external sanctions are not necessary for new labor legislation to have a significant impact on informal sectors of developing countries, at least in the short-run.
    Date: 2010–07
  11. By: Z. Chinzara
    Abstract: This paper analyses how systematic risk emanating from the macro-economy is transmitted into stock market volatility using augmented autoregressive GARCH (AR-GARCH) and Vector autoregression models. Also examined is whether the relationship between the two is bidirectional. By imposing dummies for the 1997-98 Asian and the 2007-2008 sub-prime financial crises, the study further analyses whether financial crises affect the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and stock market volatility. The findings show that macroeconomic uncertainty significantly influences stock market volatility. Although volatilities in inflation, the gold price and the oil price seem to play a role, it is found that volatility in short-term interest rates and exchange rates are the most important, suggesting that South African domestic financial markets are increasingly becoming interdependent. Finally, the results show that financial crises increase volatility in stock market and in most macroeconomic variables and, by so doing, strengthen the effects of changes in macroeconomic variables on the stock market.
    Date: 2010
  12. By: John Weeks
    Abstract: In August 2009 the African finance ministers issued the Freetown Declaration, in which they committed their governments to “implement fiscal stimulus measures” to counter the effects of the international financial crisis on their economies.<span>  </span>This paper analyzes the feasibility of realizing this commitment. It considers the availability of policy instruments in the sub-Saharan countries for countercyclical intervention.<span>  </span>On the basis of this, the paper proposes a fiscal stimulus tailored to the conditions and constrains of the countries of the region.<span>  </span>In a majority of the countries the fiscal expansion could be financed domestically, in other countries governments would require additional external funding, and only for a few countries would a stimulus not be appropriate.
    JEL: E3 E62 O11 O55
    Date: 2010
  13. By: Malcolm Keswell; Michael Carter
    Abstract: We estimate the impact on consumption of South Africa's Land Redistribution for Agricultural Development (LRAD) program, which provides capital and other forms of assistance to beneficiaries to enable market-assisted transfers of property rights from large landowners to the rural poor. Counterfactual outcomes are derived by screening out applicants with low probability of admission into the program, and then non-parametrically matching beneficiaries to applicants that are still in the pipeline to receive assistance. We find that land transfers associated with LRAD lead to very strong benefits for program participants. Accounting for heterogeneity in the length of exposure to the program, we estimate treatment effects of the program that peak at approximately 275 Rand per capita monthly consumption. Assuming a discount rate of 5%, this estimate translates to a discounted gain in monthly per capita consumption of about 50% after three years of exposure to the program.
    Keywords: Land Reform, Poverty, Impact Evaluation
    JEL: O10 O12 O13
    Date: 2010
  14. By: Johan Fourie; Dieter von Fintel
    Abstract: The arrival of European settlers at the Cape in 1652 marked the beginning of what would seemingly become an extremely unequal society, with ramifications into modern-day South Africa. In this paper, we measure the income inequality at three different points over the first century of Dutch rule at the Cape. What emerges from the study is a society characterised by severe inequality, with a relatively (and increasingly) poor farming population combined with pockets of wealth. The inequality is driven largely by wheat and, especially, wine production, which gave rise to an elite. Historical evidence supports our findings: Amongst others, the imposition of sumptuary laws in 1755 is closely correlated with a more segmented elite which includes both alcohol merchants and (wine) farmers. We compare these measures to those of other regions and time-periods in history. Although the exact level of inequality is determined to a large extent by our assumptions, the Cape Colony registers one of the highest Gini-coefficients in pre-industrial societies. This provides some support to verify the Engerman-Sokoloff hypothesis that initial levels of high inequality would give rise to growth-debilitating institutions, resulting in higher inequality and underdevelopment.
    Date: 2010
  15. By: Sennoga, Edward B.; Matovu, John Mary
    Abstract: The paper examines the interrelationships between public spending composition and Uganda's development goals including economic growth and poverty reduction. We utilize a dynamic CGE model to study these interrelationships. This paper demonstrates that public spending composition does does indeed influence economic growth and poverty reduction. In particular, this study shows that improved public sector efficiency coupled with re-allocation of public expenditure away from the unproductive sectors such as public administration and security to the productive sectors including agriculture, energy, water and health leads to higher GDP growth rates and accelerates poverty reduction. Moreover, the rate of poverty is faster in rural households relative to the urban households. A major contribution of this paper is that investments in agriculture particularly with a view of promoting value addition and investing in complementary infrastructure including roads and affordable energy contributes to higher economic growth rates and also accelerates the rate of poverty reduction.
    Keywords: Sennoga, Matovu, EPRC, Public expenditure, Economic growth - Uganda, Poverty reduction, Computable General Equilibrium, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, Financial Economics, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Production Economics, Public Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, C68, D58, E62, F15, H62, 132,
    Date: 2010–02
  16. By: Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Rudi Steinbach (South African Reserve Bank, Pretoria)
    Abstract: The paper develops a Small Open Economy New Keynesian DSGE-VAR (SOENKDSGEVAR) model of the South African economy, characterised by incomplete pass-through of exchange rate changes, external habit formation, partial indexation of domestic prices and wages to past inflation, and staggered price and wage setting. The model is estimated using Bayesian techniques on data for South Africa and the United States (US) from the period 1990Q1 to 2003Q2, and then used to forecast output growth, inflation and a measure of nominal short-term interest rate for one- to eight-quarters-ahead over an out-ofsample horizon of 2003Q3 to 2008Q4. The forecast performance of the SOENKDSGEVAR model is then compared with an independently estimated DSGE model, the classical VAR and BVAR models, with the latter being estimated based on six alternative priors, namely, Non-Informative and Informative Natural Conjugate priors, the Minnesota prior, Independent Normal-Wishart Prior, Stochastic Search Variable Selection (SSVS) prior on VAR coefficients and SSVS prior on both VAR coefficients and error covariance. Overall, we can draw the following conclusions: First, barring the BVAR model based on the SSVS prior on both VAR coefficients and the error covariance, the SOENKDSGE-VAR model is found to perform competitively, if not, better than all the other VAR models for most of the one- to eight-quarters-ahead forecasts. Second, there is no significant gain in forecasting performance by moving to a DSGE-VAR framework when compared to an independently estimated SOENKDSGE model. Finally, there is overwhelming evidence that the BVAR model based on the SSVS prior on both VAR coefficients and the error covariance is the best-suited model in forecasting the three variables of interest.
    Keywords: Bayesian Methods; Macroeconomic Forecasting; New Keynesian DSGE; Small Open Economy; Vector Autoregressions
    JEL: C11 C53 E37
    Date: 2010–09
  17. By: Economic Policy Research Centre
    Abstract: Uganda has had formal trade ties with Europe since 1973 when, together with several other commonwealth countries, it signed the Lomé Convention. However, trade relations between Europe and Africa started much earlier, in 1957, at first covering 18 francophone countries and six European countries. The Lomé Conventions granted countries like Uganda non-reciprocal trade preferences with the European Community (EC) and later European Union (EU)...Ugandaâs current and potential exports to the EU include traditionally sensitive agricultural products such as: maize, sugar, coffee, cotton, bananas, milk and dairy products, animal products, fruit and vegetable products, and oil seed products. The risks from the EPAs can be summarized into three categories. First, that the country will lose its competitive and/or comparative advantages because it cannot match the competitiveness of European producers and/or the EU and national support offered to European producers. Second, compared to many countries in the region, Uganda has already endured many years of political and economic turmoil. The country has had less than two decades of economic stability and may not be ready to be exposed to competition with much more resilient economies. Third, Ugandaâs economy is natural-resource based. For example, biodiversity services contributed about US$1 billion to the national economy in 1999. Thus, before liberalizing the trade opportunity with the EU there is a need to reflect on the consequences to the countryâs sustainable development. For this study, the consequences to sustainable development are described in light of the countryâs commitments to biodiversity conservation as well as the subsequent impacts on livelihoods of the poor who have a high dependence on the countryâs biodiversity resources...
    Keywords: EPRC, Horticulture trade, Trade agreements, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Environmental Economics and Policy, Financial Economics, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Development, Marketing, Political Economy, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis, Public Economics,
    Date: 2010–05
  18. By: Mina Baliamoune-Lutz
    Abstract: I perform Arellano-Bond GMM estimations using panel data over the period 1995-2008 and explore the growth effects of Africa’s trade with China, distinguishing between the effect of imports and the effect of exports, and controlling for the role of export concentration. Four important results are obtained from the empirical analysis. First, there is no empirical evidence that exports to China enhance growth unconditionally. Second, the results suggest that export concentration enhances the growth effects of exporting to China, implying that countries which export one major commodity to China benefit more (in terms of growth) than do countries that have more diversified exports. Third, contrary to the widely held view that increasing imports from China would have a negative effect, the empirical results show that the share of China in a country’s total imports has a robust positive effect on growth. Finally, the evidence suggests that there is an in verted-U relationship between exports to developed countries and growth in Africa. Overall, the results seem to provide support for the hypothesis of growth by destination (i.e., that where a country exports matters for the exporting country’s growth and development) in the sense that exports to more developed (OECD) countries has (at least up to a threshold) a positive impact on growth but no such effect is unambiguously (unconditionally) shown in the case of exports to China. I draw on these findings to outline some policy implications.
    JEL: F1 F41 O2 O4
    Date: 2010–09
  19. By: Chameni Nembua, Célestin; Miamo Wendji, Clovis
    Abstract: L’adoption du cadre théorique de l’approche des capabilités de SEN qui présente la pauvreté comme la privation de fonctionnements élémentaires en terme de logement, santé, emploi, loisir, relations sociales et ressources économiques, associée à la théorie des ensembles flous (CERIOLI et ZANI [1990]) et à la décomposition d’inégalités par les sources (SHAPLEY-SHORROCKS [1999]), nous permet d’analyser les privations en termes d’inégalités de pauvreté au Cameroun. Les résultats de notre étude révèlent que, les capabiltés humaines (instruction, logement) et les capabilités économiques (emploi, autre confort) expliquent aussi bien le niveau élevé de la pauvreté totale que celui des inégalités de la pauvreté. Ces résultats laissent présager une forte vulnérabilité de certaines catégories de ménages face à la pauvreté. The theoretical framework of SEN's capabilities approach presents poverty as a deprivation of elementary functioning in terms of housing, health, employment, leisure, social relations and economic resources. Association of the SEN’s approach with the fuzzy set theory (CERIOLI et ZANI [1990]) and the decomposition by sources (SHAPLEY-SHORROCKS [1999]), enables the analysis of deprivation in terms of inequality of poverty in Cameroon. From our application, we can see that in most cases, human capabilities (instruction, housing) as well as economic capabilities (employment, leisure) are those which explain the high level of total poverty. These results are substantially identical as regards the inequality of poverty. This suggests that Cameroonian households would be concern by vulnerability conditions facing poverty.
    Keywords: Ensembles flous; Pauvreté; Inégalité de pauvreté; Vulnérabilité; Cameroun Fuzzy sets; Poverty; Inequality of Poverty; Vulnerability; Cameroon.
    JEL: D63 I31 I32
    Date: 2010
  20. By: Yaya Koloma (GED, Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV)
    Abstract: Basée sur une vision welfariste – bien-être des bénéficiaires –, la présente étude appréhende une forme réduite de la performance sociale au Mali, à partir de la dimension depth of outreach issue des quatre principaux indicateurs SPI de Cerise. Elle tente de rendre compte de la stratification des structures de microfinance selon leurs objectifs fondateurs de ciblage et donc en fonction des segments de pauvreté des bénéficiaires. Utilisant une méthode de classification en termes de quintile de pauvreté– très pauvres, pauvres, non pauvres vulnérables, non pauvres supérieurs et riches –, et à partir des données de l’enquête « microfinance et réduction de la pauvreté au Mali » recueillies de décembre 2007 à janvier 2008 au Mali, l’analyse conduit à trois principaux résultats. Premièrement, au niveau global, les résultats trouvent que parmi les différentes structures de microfinance, les institutions de type CVECA présentent le pourcentage le plus élevé de plus pauvres (47,5 pour cent), viennent ensuite les institutions mutualistes (18,1 pour cent), les autres formes (11,8 pour cent) et les institutions de crédit solidaire (5,3 pour cent). Deuxièmement, l’analyse en termes de durée d’adhésion montre que les nouveaux bénéficiaires des services microfinanciers des CVECA sont concentrés dans les trois premières classes de bien-être, c’est-à-dire les non pauvres. Dans les autres structures, la tendance serait la même, notamment pour les structures mutualistes. Troisièmement, l’analyse selon le genre des bénéficiaires met en évidence que la proportion des femmes bénéficiaires est légèrement plus importante (21,1 pour cent) dans les quintiles les plus pauvres comparativement aux hommes (19,5 pour cent) et les institutions de type crédit solidaire, qui devraient préalablement et essentiellement fournir les femmes, montreraient une certaine limite en termes de ciblage. Ce sont plutôt les CVECA, qui ne sont par nature pas destinées spécifiquement aux femmes, qui concentrent une part importante de femmes pauvres. La mise en relation de ces résultats avec les objectifs originaux montrent que les institutions de type CVECA sont relativement plus efficientes. Based on a welfariste approach – beneficiaries’ wellbeing –, this paper considers a slight form of social performance in Mali. It results from a depth of outreach dimension among the main SPI four indicators of Cerise. The paper attempts to account for the stratification of microfinance institutions according to their founding goals in terms of targeting, and therefore, in terms of segments of poverty among the beneficiaries. The study is focused on survey data "Microfinance and Poverty Reduction in Mali” collected from December 2007 to January 2008 in Mali, and uses a classification method of quintiles of poverty - very poor, poor, vulnerable non-poor, not poor superior and rich. The analysis leads to three main results. First, globally, results found that, among the different structures of microfinance institutions, CVECA have the highest percentage of poor (47.5 percent), followed by mutual institutions (18.1 percent), other (11.8 percent) and institutions of social credit (5.3 percent). Secondly, the analysis in terms of membership duration also highlights the new microfinance services beneficiaries of CVECA are concentrated in the first three classes of well-being, i.e. the non-poor. In the other structures, the trend is the same, especially for mutual structures. Thirdly, the gender analysis of beneficiaries reveals that the proportion of women is slightly higher (21.1 percent) in the poorest quintile compared to men (19.5 percent), and social credit institutions, which should first and foremost provide women, show a certain failure in terms of targeting. Therefore, the CVECA institutions, which are by nature not designed specifically for women, present a large proportion of poor women. The linking of these results with the original objectives shows that the CVECA institutions are relatively more efficient.(Full text in french)
    JEL: G21 I32
    Date: 2010–08

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