nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2010‒09‒25
29 papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Investigating the role of poultry in livelihoods and the impact of avian flu on livelihoods outcomes in Africa By Birol, Ekin; Asare-Marfo, Dorene; Ayele, Gezahegn; Mensa-Bonsu, Akwasi; Ndirangu, Lydia; Okpukpara, Benjamin; Roy, Devesh; Yakhshilikov, Yorbol
  2. The socio economic drivers of rural electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa By Oona Nanka-Bruce
  3. The Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) Region- The Case for South Africa By Sukati, Mphumuzi A
  4. Productivity growth, human capital and distance to frontier in Sub-Saharan Africa By Danquah, Michael; Ouattara, Osman; Speight, Alan
  5. Capital market imperfections, uncertainty or both: Evidence on economic constraints to informal enterprises in Sub-Saharan Africa By Grimm, Michael; Krüger, Jens; Lay, Jann
  6. Tax Revenue Instability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and Remedies By Christian EBEKE; Hélène EHRHART
  7. Building capacities for evidence and outcome-based food policy planning and implementation By Badiane, Ousmane; Odjo, Sunday P.; Ulimwengu, John M.
  8. Strategies for adapting to climate change in rural Sub-Saharan Africa By Nzuma, Jonathan Makau; Waithaka, Michael; Mulwa, Richard Mbithi; Kyotalimye, Miriam; Nelson, Gerald
  9. The nexus between social grants and participation rates: Dynamics across generations in the South African labour market By Burger, Rulof; von Fintel, Dieter; Grün, Carola
  10. Institutional and public expenditure review of Ghana’s Ministry of Food and Agriculture By Kolavalli, Shashidhara; Birner, Regina; Benin, Samuel; Horowitz, Leah; Babu, Suresh; Asenso-Okyere, Kwadwo; Thompson, Nii Moi; Poku, John
  11. The Dynamics of Job Creation and Job Destruction: Is Sub-Saharan Africa Different? By Shiferaw, Admasu; Bedi, Arjun
  12. Foreign Banks in Sub-Saharan Africa - Do North-South and South-South Banks Induce Different Effects on Domestic Banks? By Pohl, Birte
  13. Poverty Impact of Rising Maize Prices in Kenya By Levin, Jörgen
  14. Does ICT Benefit the Poor? Evidence from South Africa By Klonner, Stefan; Nolen, Patrick
  15. Improving on Africa's roads - Modeling infrastructure investment and its effect on subsistence agriculture By Schürenberg-Frosch, Hannah
  16. Evaluating the Effects of Large Scale Health Interventions in Developing Countries: The Zambian Malaria Initiative By Nava Ashraf; Günther Fink; David N. Weil
  17. Constraints to fertilizer use in Nigeria By Banful, Afua B.; Nkonya, Ephraim; Oboh, Victor
  18. Livestock development planning in Uganda By Benson, Todd; Mugarura, Samuel
  19. Does AIDS-Related Mortality Reduce Per-Capita Household Income? Evidence from Rural Zambia By Omar Mahmoud, Toman; Thiele, Rainer
  20. Bottom-up, Bottom-line: Development-Relevant Enterprises in East Africa and their Significance for Agricultural Innovation By Hall, Andy; Clark, Norman; Frost, Andy
  21. Overview of the agricultural input sector in Ghana By Krausova, Marika; Banful, Afua Branoah
  22. Optimal rainfall insurance contracts for maize producers in Ghana’s Northern Region By Muamba, Francis M.; Ulimwengu, John M.
  23. The Effects of the Coffee Trademarking Initiative and Starbucks Publicity on Export Prices of Ethiopian Coffee By Arslan, Aslihan; Reicher, Christopher
  24. Crop price indemnified loans for farmers By Karlan, Dean; Kutsoati, Ed; McMillan, Margaret; Udry, Chris
  25. Conflict Experiences and Household Expactations on Recovery: Survey Evidence from Northern Uganda By Carlos Bozzoli; Tilman Brück; Tony Muhumuza
  26. Ganyu Labor in Malawi: Efficiency Problems and Determinants of Supply By Dimowa, Ralitza; Michaelowa, Katharina; Weber, Anke
  27. Spatial price transmission and market integration in Senegal’s groundnut market By Badiane, Ousmane; Ulimwengu, John M.; Wouterse, Fleur
  28. Orphanhood and Critical Periods in Children's Human Capital Formation: Long-Run Evidence from North-Western Tanzania By Hagen, Jens; Omar Mahmoud, Toman; Trofimenko, Natalia
  29. Children's Resources in Collective Households: Identification, Estimation and an Application to Child Poverty in Malawi By Geoffrey Dunbar; Arthur Lewbel; Krishna Pendakur

  1. By: Birol, Ekin; Asare-Marfo, Dorene; Ayele, Gezahegn; Mensa-Bonsu, Akwasi; Ndirangu, Lydia; Okpukpara, Benjamin; Roy, Devesh; Yakhshilikov, Yorbol
    Abstract: In this paper we investigate the role of poultry in households’ livelihoods portfolios and the impact of supply-and-demand shocks that may be caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) on households’ various livelihoods outcomes in four Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. The study countries include Ethiopia and Kenya in East Africa and Ghana and Nigeria in West Africa. These countries represent a spectrum of SSA countries regarding disease status, means of disease spread, and the role of the poultry sector in the economy. By using nationally representative household-level secondary data and discrete choice methods (probit and zero-inflated negative binomial models), we profile the household, farm, and regional characteristics of those households that are most likely to keep poultry and those households that are most likely to be engaged in intensive poultry production (that is, to keep larger household flocks). We estimate the ex ante impact of HPAI outbreaks and scares/threats on livelihoods outcomes by using the propensity score matching approach. The results of this study generate valuable information regarding the role of poultry in the livelihoods of small-scale poultry-producing households and the livelihoods impacts of HPAI-induced supply-and-demand shocks. Such information is critical for the design of targeted, and hence effective, HPAI control and mitigation policies.
    Keywords: Agricultural growth and technologies, demand shock, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), Livelihoods, probit model, Propensity score matching, supply shock, zero-inflated negative binomial model,
    Date: 2010
  2. By: Oona Nanka-Bruce (Power Networks and Energy Strategic Consulting, Parsons Brinckerhoff, Godalming, Surrey, GU7 2AZ, UK)
    Abstract: A significant proportion of the population in sub-Saharan Africa live in the rural areas, with the majority living on less than US$1 per day. Access to electricity is considered an essential element in the sustainable development of rural areas and an enabler for countries to achieve their Millennium Development Goals. This paper contributes the first analytical study of the socio-economic factors which have a significant impact on rural electrification (RE) development in sub-Saharan Africa. The study employs cross-sectional data for 24 of the 47 countries in the sub-Saharan region and finds factors including the Human Development Index, wealth distribution, institutional development and urban population size of a country to have a significant impact on RE development. A detailed policy survey of four countries from the sample; two countries categorised as over-performing (Nigeria and Madagascar) and two as under-performing (Tanzania and Chad), highlights that collaboration with international partners, integration of national policies and strategies and the use of renewable energy sources enhances the development of rural electrification in sub-Saharan Africa.
    Keywords: rural electrification; socio-economic factors; developing countries; Sub-Sahara Africa; sustainable development; MDGs; econometric modelling; policy survey
    Date: 2010–08
  3. By: Sukati, Mphumuzi A
    Abstract: EPAs between the EU and ACP countries can be viewed as being anti mercantilist and there has been a lot of speculations about their outcome. The aim of the study is to determine the effects of the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) between the European Union (EU) and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) members using Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) version 7. Two scenarios are analysed: first when the other SACU member states sign the EPAs with the EU excluding South Africa and secondly when the entire SACU member states including South Africa sign a full EPA with the EU. Results show that South Africa does stand to lose when the other member states sign. However, signing of the EPA of the SACU as a bloc, including South Africa result in welfare gain in the region. Significantly, there is an increased export of livestock and processed foods to the EU from SACU region meaning that the region stands to gain in promoting these industries after an EPA. Besides these two sectors, most of the other sectors tend to lose out. It should be noted that full benefits of trade liberalisation agreements depend on speed of industry reform and therefore can only be realised in the long run.
    Keywords: Economic Partnership Agreements; South African Customs Union; Welfare gains; European Union; GTAP
    JEL: A13 A23 A31 B00 A11
    Date: 2010–09–01
  4. By: Danquah, Michael; Ouattara, Osman; Speight, Alan
    Abstract: Using the Malmquist productivity index and panel data methods, we study the role of total human capital and its composition in the technological "catch-up" process and productivity growth via the channels of innovation and adoption of technology in a panel of 19 sub -Saharan African countries between 1960 and 2003. Our findings indicate different roles played by the composition of human capital and a follow-on consistent and significant contribution of total human capital to productivity growth. Primary and secondary school attainment (unskilled labour) contribute significantly to the adoption of technology(the main source of productivity growth in sub-Saharan Africa) whilst tertiary school attainment (skilled labour) plays a significant role in local innovation. Total human capital on the other hand, contribute more significantly to the adoption of technology and innovation. Technological "catch-up" remains a significant element in productivity growth in sub-Saharan Africa and economies with higher tertiary school attainment(skilled labour) and higher total human capital tend to contribute significantly to productivity growth through the channel of technological "catch-up". Our results rather point towards a circuitous depiction of the symbiotic characteristics of the composition of human capital in enhancing productivity growth in sub-Saharan Africa and hence efforts in scaling- up investments in human capital by governments, development partners etc should not be too concentrated on one composition of human capital. --
    Keywords: Productivity growth,Human capital,Sub-Saharan Africa
    JEL: D24 O47 O55
    Date: 2010
  5. By: Grimm, Michael; Krüger, Jens; Lay, Jann
    Abstract: This paper investigates the patterns of capital entry barriers into informal activities and capital returns in a number of Sub-Saharan African economies using a unique micro data set on informality covering seven West-African countries. Our assessment of initial investment of micro and small enterprises (MSEs) suggests that while few activities seem to exhibit considerable entry barriers, some informal entrepreneurs incur substantial initial investment, in particular when compared to their earnings levels. We find very heterogeneous patterns of capital returns in informal MSEs. At very low levels of capital, marginal returns are high, but rapidly decreasing. In a medium range of capital between 150 and 1 000 international dollars, marginal returns tend to be low and unstable. Only at higher levels of capital, they become more stable and can be fairly high again. These results are partly consistent with a dichotomous informal sector where subsistence activities co?exist with more capital intensive activities. --
    Keywords: Microenterprises,Informality,Sub-Saharan Africa
    Date: 2010
  6. By: Christian EBEKE; Hélène EHRHART (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International)
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the sources and consequences of the instability of tax revenue in Sub-Saharan African countries. We take advantage of a unique and extraordinarily rich dataset on the composition of tax revenues for a large number of countries. Using panel data for 39 countries observed over the period 1980-2005, our results are threefold. Firstly, the instability of government tax revenue leads to an instability of both the public investment and government consumption, and finally, reduces the level of public investment. Secondly, foreign aid inflows appear to be an effective insurance mechanism against the instability of tax revenue by lowering the sensitivity of public investment with respect to tax revenue shocks. Finally, the reliance on domestic indirect taxation-based systems seems more stabilizing than the dependency on trade tax revenue.
    Keywords: Tax Instability, Tax Composition, public spending, foreign aid, Sub-Saharan Africa
    Date: 2010
  7. By: Badiane, Ousmane; Odjo, Sunday P.; Ulimwengu, John M.
    Abstract: The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) is an Africawide framework for revitalizing agriculture and rural development in order to accelerate economic growth and progress toward poverty reduction and food and nutrition security. This study reviews CAADP and its strategic objectives, key players, implementation modalities, and approach to ensuring evidence and outcome-based policy planning and implementation. The study also lays out CAADP’s common analytical framework at the country level and shares economic modeling results from member countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in which analysis was conducted to examine agricultural growth and investment options for meeting CAADP growth and expenditure targets and the Millennium Development Goal target of halving poverty. Finally, the paper discusses CAADP’s review and dialogue mechanisms and knowledge support systems that have been put in place to facilitate benchmarking, mutual learning, and capacity strengthening that will improve agricultural policy, program design, and implementation.
    Keywords: CAADP, ECOWAS, growth options, MDG 1, Poverty reduction, public expenditure,
    Date: 2010
  8. By: Nzuma, Jonathan Makau; Waithaka, Michael; Mulwa, Richard Mbithi; Kyotalimye, Miriam; Nelson, Gerald
    Abstract: The ten ASARECA member countries (Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda) have adopted, or are planning to adopt, a range of climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture (see Table 1 for a summary). Of the 26 strategies mentioned, only two are common to all 10 countries, while five more are common to five or more. The strategies common to all member countries include the development and promotion of drought-tolerant and early-maturing crop species and exploitation of new and renewable energy sources. Most countries have areas that are classifiable as arid or semiarid, hence the need to develop drought-tolerant and early-maturing crops. Strangely, only one country recognizes the conservation of genetic resources as an important strategy although this is also potentially important for dealing with drought. Biomass energy resources account for more than 70 percent of total energy consumption in ASARECA member countries. To mitigate the potential adverse effects of biomass energy depletion, ASARECA countries plan to harness new and renewable energy sources, including solar power, wind power, hydro and geothermal sources, and biofuels. Eight of the 10 countries cite the promotion of rainwater harvesting as an important adaptation strategy, either small scale with small check dams or large scale with large dam projects. The five measures that are common to more than five countries are (a) the conservation and restoration of vegetative cover in degraded and mountain areas; (b) reduction of overall livestock numbers through sale or slaughter; (c) cross-breeding, zero-grazing, and acquisition of smaller livestock (for example, sheep or goats); (d) adoption of traditional methods of natural forest conservation and food use; and (e) community-based management programs for forests, rangelands, and national parks. The promotion of environmentally friendly investments and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects that can be funded through carbon trading is a feature of only one country. Three examples of strategies that warrant greater region wide collaboration are the conservation of genetic materials, development and promotion of drought-tolerant species, and soil conservation. To date, the national adaptation policies of only three countries have indicated that they carry out these strategies.
    Keywords: Adaptation, ASARECA, Climate change, NAPA, Natural resource management, PRSP,
    Date: 2010
  9. By: Burger, Rulof; von Fintel, Dieter; Grün, Carola
    Abstract: This paper will have a closer look at the role of South African welfare programs on the labour supply decision across generations. From a theoretical point of view, a change in non-labour household income will affect the decision to participate in the labour market. Previous studies have focused on prime age adults and elderly and could confirm a significant decrease in labour supply of individuals living in a pensioners household. However, past research did not look at the intergenerational pattern and broader socio-economic conditions when evaluating the impacts of social grants. Our preliminary results suggest that the behavioural response to welfare programs differs by age group. In particular, labour supply of the young living in a pensioner's household has increased. Also, intergenerational differences in participation rates can be explained by educational policies, designed specifically to address over-age students in the public schooling system. --
    Keywords: labour market participation,social grants,South Africa
    JEL: J22 H53
    Date: 2010
  10. By: Kolavalli, Shashidhara; Birner, Regina; Benin, Samuel; Horowitz, Leah; Babu, Suresh; Asenso-Okyere, Kwadwo; Thompson, Nii Moi; Poku, John
    Abstract: The need for agricultural ministries to have the capacity to develop appropriate policies and effectively implement them is becoming increasingly important as African countries, following on their commitment to Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP), pursue economic growth through agriculture-led development. The ministries need to take the lead in pulling together evidence based strategies and building partnerships that ensures their ownership. As donors begin to align their policies with those of governments, an increasingly large share of external support to agriculture is likely to be delivered in the form of support to budgets rather than specially implemented projects. Capacities of ministries and effectiveness public systems will have significant bearing on effectiveness and impact of investments in agriculture. This public expenditure and institutional review of Ghana’s Ministry of Food and Agriculture offers insights on diagnosing limitations to and identifying strategies for improving the capacity of ministries to make effective use of human and financial resources. The review makes use a conceptual framework in which mission and functions, organizational capacity – a combination of structures, processes and resources –and organizational incentives interact to produce organizational performance. Indicative strategies are recommended that the ministry can use to generate discussions internally and developed a set a reforms that are owned. They key message is that to improve performance both capacity and incentives faced by organizations need to be addressed.
    Keywords: agriculture, ministry, capacity, expenditure review, institutions,
    Date: 2010
  11. By: Shiferaw, Admasu; Bedi, Arjun
    Abstract: Agricultural production is an important source of income and employment for developing countries, yet it is the cause of serious environmental problems. Though ECO-labels appear as a promising alternative to control the negative effects of agriculture on the environment and to increase the income of rural poor, the proportion of agricultural land and exports certified as is quite small. We investigate the factors that affect the adoption of certified organic coffee in Colombia and in particular study the effect of economic incentives on adoption. We find that those who have lower cost of adoption are more likely to be certified as organic. Correcting for sample selection, we find that certified organic production is 40% less productive and 31% less costly than non-certified production. Given the price premium in 2007, certified organic production is 15% less profitable than non-organic production. We find that in order to make organic production attractive, the price premium of certified organic coffee should be about 5 times higher than in 2007. --
    Keywords: Job Creation,Job Destruction,Job Reallocation,Firm Dynamics,Africa,Ethiopia
    JEL: J20 J23 J49
    Date: 2010
  12. By: Pohl, Birte
    Abstract: In theory, the presence of foreign banks has spillover and competition effects on domestic banks leading to higher efficiency. Next to foreign banks from industrialized countries (north-south banks), foreign banks from developing countries (south-south banks) are important investors in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). South-south banks are either regional investors or are hosted in developing countries beyond SSA. This paper studies the competitive advantages and strategies of north-south as well as regional and non-regional south-south banks from a theoretical perspective. Moreover, the study examines theoretically whether these foreign banks induce different effects on domestic banks. To explore these issues empirically, 80 domestic banks in 17 countries of SSA between 1999 and 2006 are considered. The results show that the presence of north-south and south-south banks positively affects the costs of domestic banks. This suggests that domestic banks invest in the modern practices of foreign banks. Domestic banks margins are positively related to the presence of north-south and nonregional south-south banks indicating a lack of competitive pressure. In contrast, regional south-south banks have a negative impact on the margins of domestic banks. --
    Keywords: south-south banks,spillover and competition effects,efficiency
    JEL: F21 F23 F36
    Date: 2010
  13. By: Levin, Jörgen (Department of Business, Economics, Statistics and Informatics)
    Abstract: The recent hike in food prices has been of great concern to policymakers, international organisations and donor agencies. In this paper we discuss, both from a partial and general equilibrium perspective, the impact of the recent price increase on maize on Kenyan households. Simulating a 100% increase in maize prices, we find that the headcount ratio in urban areas increased by 3-4 percentage unit points, depending on the size of windfall gain to producers. Based on the assumption that the price shock is passed through in total to the farmers, food poverty in the rural areas could be reduced by almost 14%. If incomes are not passed through, rural food poverty would increase quite significantly in some provinces. It is the poorest of the poor in both urban and rural areas who are most adversely affected. Policy reforms, which would reduce marketing margins and fertiliser prices, would be important factors in promoting a positive impact on performance in the maize sector. The regional maize trade within East Africa seems to have a role to play, and exploring the impact of total integration of the maize markets could be a topic of further research.
    Keywords: Food crisis; maize; Kenya; poverty; distribution; net benefit ratio; CGE
    JEL: O12 O18 Q11 Q18
    Date: 2010–09–10
  14. By: Klonner, Stefan; Nolen, Patrick
    Abstract: We study the labor market effects of the roll-out of mobile phone coverage in rural South Africa. We address identification issues which arise from the fact that network roll-out cannot be viewed as an exogenous process to local economic development. We combine spatially coded data from South Africas leading network provider with annual labor force surveys. We use terrain properties to construct an instrumental variable that allows us to identify the causal effect of network coverage on economic outcomes under plausible assumptions. We find substantial effects of network roll-out on labor market outcomes with remarkable gender-specific differences. Employment increases by 15 percentage points when a locality receives network coverage. A gender- differentiated analysis shows that most of this effect is due to increased employment by women, in particular those who are not burdened with large child care responsibilities at their homes. All of the employment gains accrue in wage employed occupations. Agricultural employment decreases substantially, especially among males. --
    Keywords: Mobile Phones,Economic Development,Project Evaluation
    JEL: O15 O22 J22
    Date: 2010
  15. By: Schürenberg-Frosch, Hannah
    Abstract: Investment in infrastructure is considered as a crucial prerequisite for economic development. Given the scarce resources for public investment in developing countries a detailed perspective on the effects of each form of infrastructure is needed. This paper focuses on transport infrastructure in Africa. The effects of better and longer roads are investigated in a theoretical model, an empirical setup and in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGS) model. The effects on production, consumption and income distribution are shown. Most importantly the model is used to investigate the effect of roads on the economic participation of rural households. The presented CGE model may be used as a toolkit for the investigation of different policy scenarios concerning the type and volume of investment as well as the possible financing alternatives. Robustness checks show that in order to prevent reliable quantitative results much more information is needed about the exact value of particular parameters in the model. --
    Keywords: Infrastructure,Computable General Equilibrium,Transport networks,Africa,rural development,subsistence agriculture
    JEL: O11 O55 R42
    Date: 2010
  16. By: Nava Ashraf; Günther Fink; David N. Weil
    Abstract: Since 2003, Zambia has been engaged in a large-scale, centrally coordinated national anti- Malaria campaign which has become a model in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper aims at quantifying the individual and macro level benefits of this campaign, which involved mass distribution of insecticide treated mosquito nets, intermittent preventive treatment for pregnant women, indoor residual spraying, rapid diagnostic tests, and artemisinin-based combination therapy. We discuss the timing and regional coverage of the program, and critically review the available health and program rollout data. To estimate the health benefits associated with the program rollout, we use both population based morbidity measures from the Demographic and Health Surveys and health facility based mortality data as reported in the national Health Management Information System. While we find rather robust correlations between the rollout of bed nets and subsequent improvements in our health measures, the link between regional spraying and individual level health appears rather weak in the data.
    Date: 2010
  17. By: Banful, Afua B.; Nkonya, Ephraim; Oboh, Victor
    Abstract: Fertilizer consumption rates in Nigeria remains among the lowest in the world despite decades of aggressive subsidization. The extension service in Nigeria has a double-edged impact on fertilizer use in the country; not only can their activities increase farmers’ demand for fertilizer, but also the organizational framework of the service, Agricultural Development Programs, is the major source of fertilizer for farmers. To provide insights on the reasons for the low fertilizer use in Nigeria, this paper presents an analysis of the extension service as well as some perspectives of village extension agents. We find that the reach of the extension service is severely limited by low staff. The main technology transmitted is the use of improved seeds. Fertilizer technology is seldom transmitted and very rarely is irrigation taught. Furthermore, extension agents are found to have gaps in their knowledge of fertilizer technology. Extension agents routinely distribute agricultural inputs and many see their advisory role as secondary to this function. Extension agents identified the primary constraint to fertilizer use in Nigeria as the physical absence of the product at the time that it is needed, rather than lack of affordability or farmers’ lack of knowledge about the benefits or the use of fertilizer.
    Keywords: Agricultural growth and technologies, Extension, Fertilizer, Subsidies,
    Date: 2010
  18. By: Benson, Todd; Mugarura, Samuel
    Abstract: Livestock are an important element of the livelihoods of many Ugandan households, and considerable efforts at economic development by the government of Uganda have focused on the livestock sector. However, these development efforts have suffered due to a lack of detailed data on the distribution of livestock in Uganda to guide the targeting of such programs. In this paper we use data from the 2008 National Livestock Census to develop a better understanding of where in Uganda there might be potential for significant investment to intensify the production of livestock and, conversely, where there are important challenges, such as conflicts between human populations and livestock that need to be addressed. This analysis is done by developing a quantitative model to predict mean livestock stocking rates at sub-county level (n = 929) that uses population density, agroecological factors, and market access as explanatory variables. A mapping of the model residuals approach is then used to identify areas in Uganda that are relatively understocked and those that are potentially overstocked. This information is then used to suggest approaches to livestock development in both types of areas.
    Keywords: Development planning, livestock, Spatial analysis,
    Date: 2010
  19. By: Omar Mahmoud, Toman; Thiele, Rainer
    Abstract: --
    Keywords: HIV/AIDS,prime-age mortality,per-adult equivalent income,difference-in-difference,propensity score matching,spillovers,Zambia
    JEL: I31 J19 C14 C23
    Date: 2010
  20. By: Hall, Andy (UNU-MERIT, Research Into Use (RIU)); Clark, Norman (Research Into Use (RIU)); Frost, Andy (Research Into Use (RIU))
    Abstract: Over the last 10 years much has been written about the role of the private sector as part of a more widely-conceived notion of agricultural sector capacity for innovation and development. This paper discusses the emergence of a new class of private enterprise in East Africa that would seem to have an important role in efforts to tackle poverty reduction and food security. These organisations appear to occupy a niche that sits between mainstream for-profit enterprises and the developmental activities of government programmes, NGOs and development projects. This type of enterprise activity is not corporate social responsibility, but an altogether new type of business model that is blending entrepreneurial skills and perspectives with mission statements that seek to both serve the needs of poor customers and address their welfare. The ethos is both "bottom-up" and "bottom-line". This paper classifies these organisations as Development-Relevant Enterprises (DevREs).The experience of the Research into Use (RIU) programme discussed in this paper suggests that supporting these types of entrepreneurial activity may form the basis of a new mode of development assistance aimed at using innovation for both social and economic purposes.
    Keywords: Development-Relevant Enterprises, Agricultural Research, Agricultural Innovation, East Africa
    JEL: N5 N57 O13 O19 O31 Q13 Q16
    Date: 2010
  21. By: Krausova, Marika; Banful, Afua Branoah
    Abstract: Knowledge of the characteristics and size of the agricultural input sector of a country is critical for policymakers to design appropriate interventions that not only foster growth in the sector, but also support the agricultural development goals of the country. In 2009, the International Food Policy Research Institute and the International Fertilizer Development Center jointly conducted a census of agricultural input dealers in Ghana to fill a critical data gap on the nature of the country’s agricultural input sector. This paper presents a detailed description of the sector’s structure, market practices, and supply chain. It also assesses the sector’s response to recently implemented fertilizer subsidies, and findings show that, despite the government’s goal of making the subsidy program supportive of the private market, the majority of fertilizer retailers were excluded from participating.
    Keywords: agricultural input sector, fertilizer, agro-dealers network, vouchers, subsidies,
    Date: 2010
  22. By: Muamba, Francis M.; Ulimwengu, John M.
    Abstract: The risk of food insecurity due to climate change in developing countries has encouraged development partners to seek new approaches to improve the resilience of subsistence agriculture to covariate shocks. Such innovative approaches include investment in safety nets such as rainfall insurance. However, a policy question remains: How does one determine the practicality of rainfall insurance for a particular district? This paper attempts to fill this gap by assessing the viability of rainfall insurance contracts for agricultural production in Ghana’s Northern Region. Using a stop-loss framework, an optimal contract is determined by choosing its parameters by maximizing the objective function in the form of covariance between crop loss and indemnity payment, the objective function given a predetermined fair premium rate. The theoretical contract is implemented using monthly rainfall and annual maize crop yield data from 1998 to 2004 from 12 districts in the Northern Region under varying premium rates. We conclude that rainfall insurance may not be viable for all districts in the Northern Region; however, the contracts are likely to be viable in districts that exhibit a positive Pearson correlation coefficient between maize yield loss and indemnity payments.
    Keywords: Climate change, maize yield, rainfall insurance,
    Date: 2010
  23. By: Arslan, Aslihan; Reicher, Christopher
    Abstract: The Ethiopian government initiated the Ethiopian Coffee Trademarking and Licensing Initiative in 2004 for three coffee origins: Sidama, Yirgacheffe and Harar. Following a court case between Starbucks and the Ethiopian government regarding this initiative, Oxfam organized a publicity campaign. This paper evaluates the effect of these interventions on the export prices of trademarked Ethiopian coffees. We find that the prices of the trademarked coffees increased by about 10\% following these interventions. The magnitude of this change is comparable with the farm gate prices reported in the literature; however, we cannot establish direct causation or observe the passthrough into farm gate prices. --
    Keywords: Trademarks,coffee prices,Ethiopia
    JEL: O13 F14
    Date: 2010
  24. By: Karlan, Dean; Kutsoati, Ed; McMillan, Margaret; Udry, Chris
    Abstract: Farmers face a particular set of risks that complicate the decision to borrow. We use a randomized experiment to investigate (1) the role of crop-price risk in reducing demand for credit among famers and (2) how risk mitigation changes farmers’ investment decisions. In rural Ghana, we offer farmers loans with an indemnity component that forgives 50 percent of the loan if crop prices drop below a threshold price. A control group is offered a standard loan product at the same interest rate. We find similar rates of loan uptake among all farmers and little significant impact of the indemnity component on uptake or other outcomes of interest, with the exception of higher likelihoods of garden egg cultivation and sales to market traders rather than at farmgate among recipients of indemnified loans.
    Keywords: agricultural credit, clustered randomized control trial, crop price insurance, crop prices, Impact evaluation, underinvestment,
    Date: 2010
  25. By: Carlos Bozzoli; Tilman Brück; Tony Muhumuza
    Abstract: We analyse the role of mass violent conflict in influencing individual expectations. We hypothesise that individuals are likely to report negative expectations if they were exposed to conflict events in the past. We combine individual and household level data from the Northern Uganda Livelihood Survey of 2007 with a disaggregated conflict exposure index based on the Armed Conflict Locations Events Data (ACLED). We run logistic regression models to study the strength of the association between conflict and expectations. Results indicate that conflict intensity is correlated with a decrease in the probability of expecting economic recovery. The effect of conflict on general welfare however is less robust.
    Keywords: Conflict, expectations, war, welfare
    JEL: D84 H56 O10
    Date: 2010
  26. By: Dimowa, Ralitza; Michaelowa, Katharina; Weber, Anke
    Abstract: In Malawi, informal off-farm labour (ganyu) has often been described as a survival strategy which eventually drives poor rural households into even further destitution. Based on data from the Second Integrated Household Survey for 2004, we estimate the determinants of the decision to supply labour in the ganyu market and the amount of labour supplied. Our results do not support the conjecture that ganyu is necessarily a low-return strategy that confines subsistence constrained households to a vicious circle of poverty. However, we do find evidence that ganyu is used as an ex-post coping strategy in the event of shocks, and as an ex-ante social insurance mechanism. Moreover, we generally find a positive reaction of ganyu supply to an increase in the ganyu wages, and no evidence of any backward bending segment of the supply curve for households close to the subsistence level. While ganyu does not appear to drive poor households into further destitution, these households do seem to suffer the most when they face demand side constraints in times of greatest needs. --
    Keywords: rural labor supply,insurance strategies,poverty,Malawi
    JEL: O12 J22 J24
    Date: 2010
  27. By: Badiane, Ousmane; Ulimwengu, John M.; Wouterse, Fleur
    Abstract: The groundnut sector is the largest of Senegal’s agricultural sectors. It has been subject to various degrees of intervention since the country’s independence. Some, including the determination of farm prices by the government have survived the wave of reforms of the 1980s. Groundnut pricing policies have been the source of major transfers from farmers to the groundnut milling industry, which until 2007, was dominated by SONACOS, a publicly owned parastatal. The state was thus a major beneficiary of the transfers. In 2007, the company was privatized and is now privately owned, raising even greater concerns about the distribution of implications of pricing policies for groundnuts. The paper examines the potential ramifications of liberalizing groundnut prices in terms of its impact on prices received by producers and paid by the milling industry. One fundamental question in the analysis is the extent to which local markets would respond to such a move. To answer this question, the paper presents a dynamic model of price formation that uses estimates of spatial integration across local markets to measure the response of local agricultural prices to policy changes. We then apply this model to simulate the impact of liberalizing groundnut prices to allow domestic prices to reflect their international levels. We find that doing so would change prices in the border city of Dakar, which happens to be the central market that determines prices in the local markets of the producing regions of Kaolack and Fatick. We also find that if markets had been fully liberalized when SONACOS was privatized in January 2007, then groundnut prices would have been higher and that the increase in prices would have been passed on almost entirely to producers in Kaolack and, to a lesser extent, to producers in Fatick. Such reforms would have reversed the longstanding discrimination of groundnut farmers. Prices received by farmers in Kaolack over a period of one year would have increased from 352 FCFA/kg to 494 FCFA/kg of shelled groundnuts. For farmers in the Fatick region, prices would increase from 389 FCFA/kg to 474 FCFA/kg.
    Keywords: groundnuts, Liberalization, marketing integration, pricing policies, Privatization,
    Date: 2010
  28. By: Hagen, Jens; Omar Mahmoud, Toman; Trofimenko, Natalia
    Abstract: Losing a parent is a trauma that has consequences for human capital formation. Does it matter at what age this trauma occurs? Using longitudinal data from the Kagera region in Tanzania that span thirteen years from 1991-2004, we find considerable impact heterogeneity across age at bereavement, but less so for the death of opposite-sex parents. In terms of long-term health status as measured by body height, children who lose their same-sex parent before teenage years are hit hardest. Regarding years of formal education attained in young adulthood, boys whose fathers die before adolescence suffer the most. Maternal bereavement does not fit into this pattern as it affects educational attainment of boys and girls in a similar way. The generally strong interaction between age at parental death and sex of the late parent suggests that the preferences of the surviving parent partly protect same-sex children from orphanhoods detrimental effects on human capital accumulation. --
    Keywords: orphans,health,education,timing of parental death,child development,HIV/AIDS
    JEL: I31 J19 C14 C23
    Date: 2010
  29. By: Geoffrey Dunbar (Simon Fraser University); Arthur Lewbel (Boston College); Krishna Pendakur (Simon Fraser University)
    Abstract: The share of household resources devoted to children is hard to identify, because consumption is measured at the household level, and goods can be shared. Using semiparametric restrictions on individual preferences within a collective model, we identify how total household resources are divided up among household members, by observing how each family member’s expenditures on a single private good like clothing varies with income and family size. Using data from Malawi we show how resources devoted to wives and children vary by family size and structure, and we find that standard poverty indices understate the incidence of child poverty.
    Keywords: Collective Model, Cost of Children, Bargaining Power, Iden- tication, Sharing rule, Demand Systems, Engel Curves
    JEL: D13 D11 D12 C31 I32
    Date: 2010–06–01

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