nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2010‒08‒21
ten papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. The Structure and Behavior of Vegetable Markets Serving Lusaka: Main Report. By Tschirley, David L.; Hichaambwa, Munguzwe
  2. Transmission des fluctuations et calcul des prix de parité à lâimportation du riz et du maïs en Côte d'Ivoire. By Noel, Kouable
  3. Transmission des fluctuations et calcul des prix de parité à lâimportation du riz et du maïs au Burkina. By Pale, Eric
  4. Modernizing Africaâs Fresh Produce Supply Chains without Rapid Supermarket Takeover: Towards a Definition of Research and Investment Priorities. By Tschirley, David L; Ayieko, Miltone; Hichaambwa, Munguzwe; Goeb, Joey; Loescher, Wayne
  5. Why are Fresh Produce Prices So Unstable in Lusaka? Insights for Policy and nvestment Priorities. By Hichaambwa, Munguzwe; Tschirley, David L.
  6. How are Vegetables Marketed into Lusaka? The Structure of Lusakaâs Fresh Produce Marketing System and Implications for Investment Priorities. By Hichaambwa, Munguzwe; Tschirley, David L.
  7. Do Brokers Help or Hinder the Marketing of Fresh Produce in Lusaka? Preliminary Insights from Research By Tschirley, David L.; Hichaambwa, Munguzwe
  8. Oil price distortions and their short- and long-run impacts on the Nigerian economy By Chuku, Chuku; Effiong, Ekpeno; Sam, Ndifreke
  9. What Determines the Long run Growth in Kenya? By Kumar, Saten; Pacheco, Gail
  10. Impact du pacte de convergence, de stabilité et de croissance sur la convergence réelle dans l’UEMOA By Combey, Adama; Mally , Komla

  1. By: Tschirley, David L.; Hichaambwa, Munguzwe
    Abstract: Rapid growth in urban populations and renewed growth in per capita incomes in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are creating major opportunities for local farmers by driving rapid growth in domestic market demand for food. At the same time, these trends plus rising income are putting enormous stress on the supply chains that these farmers rely on to respond to this increasing demand: demand for marketed food is likely to grow more than 5% per year on the continent, doubling marketed volumes in 12-14 years. Currently, fresh produce marketing systems are the biggest users of public marketing infrastructure, and have been most severely affected by the lack of investment in these systems across much of the continent. This lack of investment has led to an exploding informal marketing sector, rising concerns about congestion and hygiene, and few if any comprehensive programs to actively link farmers to these markets.
    Keywords: Africa, produce, vegetable markets, Zambia, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, Marketing,
    Date: 2010–06
  2. By: Noel, Kouable
    Abstract: The main purpose of the study is to measure the level of influence exercised by the recent outbreak world prices of rice and maize, the prices of local products (rice and corn), also how to assess the competitiveness of local products has been affected by this increase in West Africa
    Keywords: Ivory coast, maize, rice, parity prices, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, Marketing,
    Date: 2010–01
  3. By: Pale, Eric
    Abstract: During the first quarter of 2008, the nominal prices of major food items have reached their highest level in nearly 50 years, while prices reached their actual level record in nearly 30 years. Indeed, prices of agricultural products rose sharply in 2006 and 2007 reported an increase more marked in the first quarter of 2008. The FAO food price index rose an average of 8% in 2006 compared to the year earlier and 24% in 2007 compared to 2006. The increase in the average index for first three months of 2008 compared to first quarter 2007 was 53%. Soaring persistent price is mainly due to vegetable oils, which rose to more than 97% during the same period, followed by cereals (87%), dairy (58%) and rice (46%). According to the latest report published by the World Bank on rising prices Food prices global wheat prices rose 181% during the period of 36 months elapsed until February 2008, and global food prices have increased overall 83%. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture, the 36 countries facing a food security crisis, 21 are in Africa. In sub-Saharan Africa, rising food prices has had repercussions Social quite important
    Keywords: Burkina Faso, Maize, Rice, Parity Price, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade, Marketing,
    Date: 2010–01
  4. By: Tschirley, David L; Ayieko, Miltone; Hichaambwa, Munguzwe; Goeb, Joey; Loescher, Wayne
    Abstract: After a burst of enthusiasm through the middle part of this decade regarding the supermarket revolution, there now exists a broad consensus that this phenomenon is likely to proceed much more slowly than once thought in Sub-Saharan Africa. This is especially true in fresh produce supply chains, where both the promise and the perils of supermarket expansion have received greatest attention. In nearly the entire continent, the so-called traditional marketing sector â open air markets, dispersed informal vendors, and traditional shops â is expected to play a dominant role in fresh produce marketing for several decades. If true, this finding has profound policy implications. Specifically, it suggests that private investment in modern, integrated supply chains cannot be relied upon to solve the multitude of problems that increasingly plague these traditional production and marketing systems over a time frame acceptable to most policy makers and donors. Public engagement, preferably through meaningful public-private partnerships and an accompanying re-definition of public and private roles, will be central to improving these systems. This paper first reviews the evolution of thinking on the supermarket revolution in Africa and presents empirical evidence from Kenya and Zambia. It then lays out a set of stylized facts and key gaps in knowledge regarding traditional fresh produce production and marketing sectors on the continent, and closes by outlining priorities for research and for public and private investment to modernize these systems in the absence of rapid supermarket takeover.
    Keywords: marketing, africa, Agribusiness, Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade, Marketing,
    Date: 2010–06
  5. By: Hichaambwa, Munguzwe; Tschirley, David L.
    Abstract: Daily quantities of tomato, rape and onion entering Soweto market in Lusaka fluctuate dramatically. The market does a remarkable job of moderating the impact on prices of these unstable quantities, through stabilizing mechanisms such as short-term storage of tomato and rape by traders and consumers, longer-term storage of onion by traders, direct sourcing of rape from farm areas by retail traders, and exportation of tomato and onion outside Lusaka. Yet even with these stabilizing mechanisms, wholesale prices are highly variable, with negative effects on farmers and consumers. Reducing variability requires investments in four areas: (a) improved control of production environments by farmers through irrigation, better access to inputs and greater agronomic knowledge, (b) improved vertical flow of information from farmers to traders to brokers to retailers, (c) a regulatory framework for broker activity to improve trust and information flow between brokers and sellers, and (d) improved market infrastructure.
    Keywords: Produce, Zambia, Africa, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, Marketing,
    Date: 2010–06
  6. By: Hichaambwa, Munguzwe; Tschirley, David L.
    Abstract: Key findings regarding the structure of trade for tomato, rape, and onion into Lusaka are (a) regional trade is an important part of Zambiaâs fresh produce system, (b) supply chains for tomato, rape, and onion are short, (c) the role of the modern market system is very small, and (d) the role of urban agriculture in supplying Lusaka markets for these vegetables is also small, though it is meaningful in the case of rape. Main policy implications from this and related work are that (a) investments and policies to promote regional trade are relevant for the horticultural sector, not just food staples, (b) the traditional market system needs improved hard infrastructure linked to more collaborative public/private management models and improved coordination in the supply chains, and (c) more programmatic emphasis should be placed on helping existing traders scale-up and gain better access to information to do their job more effectively.
    Keywords: Africa, vegetables, Zambia, produce, marketing, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Security and Poverty, Marketing,
    Date: 2010–06
  7. By: Tschirley, David L.; Hichaambwa, Munguzwe
    Abstract: Brokers are agents who arrange sales without taking ownership of the commodity, earning their money on a commission. Brokers are a common but often controversial presence in wholesale markets of East and Southern Africa. Efficient brokering can be beneficial by matching buyers and sellers more effectively than if each had to search independently for someone to transact with. Yet buyers and sellers can be harmed if brokers are able to behave in uncompetitive, collusive, or unethical ways. In Soweto market of Lusaka, common complaints lodged by sellers are that brokers force sellers to use them by threatening the security of the sellersâ produce, and that the brokers add âhiddenâ commissions when selling a farmer or traderâs produce. This policy brief explores the role of brokers in the marketing of fresh produce in Soweto Market. It concludes that, while brokers appear to provide some valued service to some sellers, the chaotic nature of the market and the lack of any regulatory and enforcement structure leads to questionable broker behaviour including charging of hidden commissions. As government and city officials grapple with how to improve fresh produce wholesaling, it is imperative that they focus not just on physical infrastructure but also on the governance, regulatory, and enforcement structures without which new market places will be of little use.
    Keywords: Zambia, brokers, marketing, produce, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Security and Poverty, Marketing,
    Date: 2010–06
  8. By: Chuku, Chuku; Effiong, Ekpeno; Sam, Ndifreke
    Abstract: Given its economic structure, high energy intensity and simultaneity as an oil importing and exporting economy, Nigeria stands out as a special case to study the oil-price-macroeconomy relation. This paper studies the linear and asymmetric impacts of oil price shocks on the Nigerian economy between1970Q1and 2008Q4. Using the vector error correction mechanism and the Granger causality test, we investigate the long-run and short-run impacts of oil price shocks on the supply-side of the economy, wealth transfer effect, inflation effect and real balance effect. Overall, the results from the linear model show that oil price shocks are not a major determinant of macroeconomic activity in Nigeria, and macroeconomic activities in Nigeria do not Granger cause world oil prices. Further, the results from our non-linear specification reveals that the impact of world oil price shocks on the Nigerian economy are asymmetric. Hence, the common practise of national development planning premised on forecasts of international oil prices should be de-emphasized in Nigeria.
    Keywords: Oil price shocks; linear and asymmetric effects; transmission channels; Nigerian economy.
    JEL: Q43
    Date: 2010–08–15
  9. By: Kumar, Saten; Pacheco, Gail
    Abstract: Lifting the long run growth rate is, arguably, the pursuit of every economy. What should Kenya do to enhance its long run growth rate? This paper attempts to answer this question by examining the determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) in Kenya. We utilized the theoretical insights from the Solow (1956) growth model and its extension by Mankiw, Romer and Weil (1992) and followed Senhadji’s (2000) growth accounting procedure. We find that growth in Kenya, until the 1990s was mainly due to factor accumulation. Since then, TFP has made a small contribution to growth. Our findings imply that while variables like overseas development aid, foreign direct investment and progress of financial sector improves TFP, trade openness is the key determinant. Consequently, policy makers should focus on policies that improve trade openness if long run growth rate is to be raised.
    Keywords: Solow model; growth accounting; total factor productivity
    JEL: O10 O15
    Date: 2010–08–01
  10. By: Combey, Adama; Mally , Komla
    Abstract: The nominal convergence knows regular monitoring and a growing interest in the WAEMU countries. However, few studies have examined the real convergence of the WAEMU countries and in particular the contribution of the convergence, stability and growth pact (PCSC) to the dynamics of the real convergence. This paper aims to analyze the effect of this pact on the dynamics of real convergence. After examining the concept of sigma-convergence and convergence in distribution, we use the beta-convergence approach with panel data to control for differences in the technologies state of countries. After bias correction of endogeneity problem by using the system GMM method, the results suggest that the hypothesis of conditional convergence can not be rejected and that the pact adopted by WAEMU countries triple the real convergence speed of approximation of real per capita GDP of member countries of the WAEMU during the period 1997-2008. Thus the adoption of the PCSC has improved the standard of life for WEAMU member countries.
    Keywords: Pacte de convergence; de stabilité et de croissance; Convergence nominale ; Convergence réelle ; Différences de technologie ; Bêta-convergence ; Panel dynamique ; GMM.
    JEL: E6 C01
    Date: 2010–01–10

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