|
on Africa |
| By: | Betty Kibaara; Joshua Ariga; John Olwande; T.S. Jayne |
| Abstract: | Agriculture continues to be a fundamental instrument for sustainable development, poverty reduction and enhanced food security in developing countries. Agricultural productivity levels in Sub Sahara Africa are far below that of other regions in the world, and are well below that required to attain food security and poverty reduction goals. On the other hand, the rate of agricultural productivity growth since the early 2000s has been quite impressive in many African countries, including Kenya, yet this is no cause for complacency. Sustained and accelerated growth requires a sharp increase in productivity of smallholder farmers. The Strategy to Revitalize Agriculture (SRA), Kenya Vision 2030, Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Program (CAADP) and Alliance for Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) have underscored the importance of increasing agricultural productivity in the fight against poverty. In the past, agricultural production was largely a function of acreage, but further growth in production will have to be driven by productivity growth. |
| Keywords: | Africa, Kenya, productivity |
| JEL: | Q10 |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:ke_tegemeo_wp_031&r=afr |
| By: | Isaac Minde; T.S. Jayne; Eric Crawford; Joshua Ariga; Jones Govereh |
| Abstract: | It is generally agreed that increasing agricultural productivity is critical to stimulating the rate of economic growth in Africa. There are many important and often complementary determinants of agricultural productivity. In this brief and the full paper it draws from, the focus is on fertilizer and improved seed, without intending to imply that they are the only or most significant productivity determinants. |
| Keywords: | fertilizer, Africa, Malawi, Zambia, Kenya. |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:polbrf:83&r=afr |
| By: | Jones Govereh; Steven Haggblade; Hunter Nielson; David L. Tschirley |
| Abstract: | Over the next generation, growing trade in food staples appears poised to dwarf that in all other African agricultural markets. Currently, the market value of Africa’s food staples amounts to $50 billion per year, or nearly three-fourths of the value of all agricultural production (Table 1). Given growing urbanization and the highest rates of poverty in the world, Africa’s market demand for food staples will grow dramatically in coming decades. As a result, production of food staples -- for growing urban markets and food-deficit rural areas -- represents probably the largest growth opportunity available to African farmers. Facilitating expansion of these markets will, therefore, be critical for efforts at stimulating agricultural production growth, broad- based income expansion and poverty reduction. |
| Keywords: | Africa, markets, maize |
| JEL: | Q13 |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:wb_wp_001&r=afr |
| By: | Isaac Minde; T.S. Jayne; Eric Crawford; Joshua Ariga; Jones Govereh |
| Abstract: | It is generally agreed that increasing agricultural productivity is critical to stimulating the rate of economic growth in Africa. There are many important and often complementary determinants of agricultural productivity. In this paper, we focus on fertilizer, without intending to imply that it is the only or most significant productivity determinants. Other key factors are seed technology, adequate water availability, labor, agronomic and other farmer management practices, and choice of crops to grow. |
| Keywords: | fertilizer, Africa, Malawi, Zambia, Kenya |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:resakss_wp01&r=afr |
| By: | Valerie Kelly; Cynthia Donovan |
| Abstract: | A major push supporting improved data collection and analysis is required if African countries are to successfully design and implement results- based Poverty Reduction Strategy Programs (PRSP) and the Comprehensive Africa Agricultural Development Program (CAADP) being promoted by the New Partnership for African Development (NEPAD). Over the years there have been many initiatives to build statistical capacity in Africa. Many problems have plagued these efforts, including inadequate funding and the stop-go phenomenon. Recently the World Bank and development partners began a major new commitment to support Africa-wide improvements in statistical data through the Accelerated Data Program for Africa (ADP). It is hoped that this program will be more successful than previous programs by placing countries at the center of the program and building on the PRSP process. To improve the effectiveness of this effort the World Bank (WB ) Africa Region contracted with the Department of Agricultural Economics at Michigan State University (MSU) to carry out a desk study of the agricultural statistics programs in four countries: Mali, Zambia, Mozambique, and Rwanda. The objectives of the study are to: • draw on existing experience to review the institutional arrangements for the collection of agricultural statistics; • describe how information is collected and provided to meet macro and micro level policy requirements; and • identify ways to make the process more efficient and effective. |
| Keywords: | africa, agriculture, statistics, institutions |
| JEL: | Q10 |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:idpwrk:95&r=afr |
| By: | Brett Rayner; Joannes Mongardini |
| Abstract: | This paper builds on the methodology developed by Chudik and Mongardini (2007) to estimate the relationship between grants and remittances and the equilibrium real exchange rate in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using panel techniques. The results indicate that grants and remittances are not associated, in the long run, with an appreciation of the real effective exchange in SSA and are therefore not likely to give rise to Dutch disease effects. These findings suggest that grants and remittances may be serving to ease supply constraints or boost productivity in the non-tradable sector in the recipient economies. |
| Keywords: | Capital inflows , Sub-Saharan Africa , Low-income developing countries , Inward remittances , Real effective exchange rates , Development assistance , Millennium Development Goals , Economic models , |
| Date: | 2009–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/75&r=afr |
| By: | Steven Haggblade; Hunter Nielson; Jones Govereh; Paul Dorosh |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to evaluate the potential impact of intra- regional trade in moderating food price shocks in south eastern Africa, in the market shed centered in Northern Mozambique, Malawi and Southeastern Zambia. To do so, the following analysis develops a spatially disaggregated model of maize and cassava markets in the region in order to evaluate the impact of supply shocks confronting the region, with and without cross-border trade. |
| Keywords: | Africa, trade, emergency |
| JEL: | Q13 |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:wb_wp_02&r=afr |
| By: | John Staatz; Niama Nango Dembélé; Valerie Kelly; Ramziath Adjao |
| Abstract: | Trade bans and high international food prices are pushing many West African countries away from their historical reliance on regional and international trade as a key component of their food security strategies. No longer confident that international and regional markets are reliable sources of basic staples, many countries are pushing for greater food self sufficiency—a sort of agricultural globalization in reverse. This paper examines West Africa’s globalization in reverse and raises a number of questions about what role regional and international trade should play in the region’s future quest for food security. The objective is to stimulate discussion about the different strategies available to West African governments for ensuring food security in the current environment of high world market prices for staple foods. These strategies need to take into account not only the need to provide safety nets for vulnerable groups who cannot afford the higher food costs but also the need to stimulate production in response to growing regional and world demand. |
| Keywords: | africa, globalization |
| JEL: | Q11 |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:mi_srai_rr_01&r=afr |
| By: | Lucy Aliguma; Gasper Ashimogo; Geoffrey S. Mwale; J.K. Nyoro; Alexander Phiri; Lulama Ndibongo Traub |
| Abstract: | Agriculture remains an important sector in South Africa despite its small direct share of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). In 2004 primary agriculture contributed 3% to total GDP, while accounting for over 10% of all reported employment (OECD, 2006). Within this sector, the grain industry is one of the largest, contributing approximately 16% to the total gross value of agricultural production between 2000 and 2003 marketing years (SAGIS, 2005). It is comprised of all grain and oilseed industries, of which, maize and wheat are considered primary staple commodities given their importance in promoting food security. Over the past two decades or so, both domestic and trade policy interventions within the maize industry has occurred within the context of vast political and socioeconomic change. The overall goal of government during this period was to create an open and market-orientated economy as well as to redress the injustices of the past. The resultant set of policy interventions affecting the grain sector have successfully managed to achieve the goal of a market- orientated system, while making significant strides in achieving a more open grain sector in term of Black Economic Empowerment. The primary objective of this case study is to describe the evolution of policies affecting crossborder trade in maize and maize meal between South Africa and the Southern African region. To this end, the major maize grain flows within South Africa, the major domestic and trade policies affecting cross- border maize trade between South Africa and its surrounding neighbors, as well as the market pricing mechanism are described and assessed. |
| Keywords: | Africa, markets, maize |
| JEL: | Q13 |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:wb_wp_001a&r=afr |
| By: | Joshua Ariga; T.S. Jayne; Betty Kibaara; J.K. Nyoro |
| Abstract: | This study uses nationwide household panel survey data from 1996/97 to 2006/07 to examine trends in fertilizer use on maize by smallholder maize growers. The paper also compares these findings with fertilizer use rates according to other recent surveys in Kenya to assess comparability. We also examine the correlation between household fertilizer use and indicators of welfare such as wealth and landholding size. In addition, we use econometric techniques applied to household survey data to identify the main household and community characteristics associated with fertilizer purchases. Lastly, the study considers alternative policy strategies for maintaining smallholders’ access to fertilizer in the current context of substantially higher world fertilizer prices. |
| Keywords: | fertilizer, Africa, Malawi, Kenya, small holders |
| JEL: | Q13 |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:ke_tegemeo_wp_028&r=afr |
| By: | Jones Govereh; T.S. Jayne; Antony Chapoto |
| Abstract: | The economic reforms in maize marketing and trade policies implemented during the 1990s have been highly controversial, and there remains a lack of solid empirical investigation on the impacts of these reforms on national food security, price stability and rural income growth. This study aims to provide a detailed evidence-based analysis of the impacts of maize marketing and trade policies on smallholder agricultural production growth, access to food by consumers, and other important national policy objectives. These insights from Zambia can hopefully move forward the continuing debate in the region on how maize marketing and trade policies should be structured in the future. |
| Keywords: | food security, policy, Zambia, Africa, maize, trade |
| JEL: | Q17 |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:zm-fsrp-wp-33&r=afr |
| By: | Johannes Gräb (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen / Germany); Jan Priebe (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen / Germany) |
| Abstract: | Exploiting DHS data from 235 regions in 29 Sub-Saharan Africa countries, we find that the combination of low levels of malnutrition together with dramatically high rates of mortality, encountered in Kenya\'s Lake Victoria territory, is unique for Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper explores the causes of this paradox for the Kenyan context. Our identification strategy consists of two parts. First of all, we apply multilevel regression models to control simultaneously for family and community clustering of the observed malnutrition and mortality outcomes. Secondly, to address unobserved but correlated factors, we exploit information from GIS and malaria databases to construct variables that capture additional components of children\'s geographic, political and cultural environment. Our analysis reveals that beneficial agricultural conditions and feeding practices lead to the observed sound anthropometric outcomes around Lake Victoria. In contrast, high mortality rates rest upon an adverse disease environment (malaria prevalence, water pollution, HIV rates) and a policy neglect (underprovision of health care services). Nonetheless, a significant effect of the local ethnic group, the Luo, on mortality remains. |
| Keywords: | Child mortality, undernutrition, poverty, multilevel modeling, Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | I10 I30 O12 R12 |
| Date: | 2009–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:iaidps:185&r=afr |
| By: | Olatundun Janet Adelegan |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of regional cross-listing on stock prices. The sample consists of sub- Saharan African firms that have cross-listed during the period 1992-2008. Using event study methodology, the study finds positive abnormal returns around the date of the regional cross-listing of stocks. The positive announcement period effect, together with the normal post cross-listing performance, shows that regional cross-listing increases firm value. Overall, this provides evidence that firms benefit from listing outside their home market and need to be taken into consideration by SSA country authorities as they seek a regional approach to stock market development. Thus, policy makers of both the countries of primary listing (home country) and secondary listing (host country) need the right policy handles to conceptualize, facilitate and steer regional cross-listing efforts by firms. Through complementary policy-based efforts, policy makers can set the stage for regional cross-listings and harness the numerous related benefits. |
| Keywords: | Capital markets , Sub-Saharan Africa , Stock markets , Stock prices , Nonbank financial sector , Corporate sector , Economic integration , Cross country analysis , |
| Date: | 2009–05–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/99&r=afr |
| By: | T.S. Jayne; Antony Chapoto; Isaac Minde; Cynthia Donovan |
| Abstract: | The dramatic rise in world food prices since 2007 has commanded the world’s attention. However, in recent months, world food prices have fallen almost as rapidly as they had risen in late 2007 and early 2008, yet as is demonstrated in this report, domestic food price levels in many eastern and southern African markets are not closely tracking world prices. Fertilizer prices remain at unprecedentedly high levels and may have a critical influence on future food production levels in the region. Against this backdrop, there is an urgent need for information about how the current food situation is unfolding in the region, the immediate policy response options, and the longer-term challenges and opportunities. This study has three objectives: 1) to examine the impact of recent world food price changes on domestic maize and fertilizer prices in the region; 2) to assess possible changes in cropping patterns, national food production, and consumers’ access to food in light of these price movements; and 3) to consider the implications for policy and program response by governments, donors, and the private sector. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, africa, food security, price |
| JEL: | Q11 |
| Date: | 2008–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:idpwrk:97&r=afr |
| By: | Anne Case; Christina Paxson |
| Abstract: | We document the impact of the AIDS crisis on non-AIDS related health services in fourteen sub-Saharan African countries. Using multiple waves of Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for each country, we examine antenatal care, birth deliveries, and rates of immunization for children born between 1988 and 2005. We find deterioration in nearly all of these dimensions of health care over this period. The most recent DHS survey for each country collected data on HIV prevalence, which allows us to examine the association between HIV burden and health care. We find that erosion of health services is highly correlated with increases in AIDS prevalence. Regions of countries that have light AIDS burdens have witnessed small or no declines in health care, using the measures noted above, while those regions currently shouldering the heaviest burdens have seen the largest erosion in treatment for pregnant women and children. Using semi-parametric techniques, we can date the beginning of the divergence in health services between high and low HIV regions to the mid-1990s. |
| JEL: | I18 O12 O55 |
| Date: | 2009–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15000&r=afr |
| By: | Benjamin Magen; Cynthia Donovan; Valerie Kelly |
| Abstract: | This working paper synthesizes the theoretical and empirical literature on the use of cash transfers in response to food crisis situations, with particular attention to their use in situations that are exacerbated by volatile, often inflationary, commodity prices. The paper is designed for policymakers who are wondering if cash transfers might be an appropriate instrument in the context of 2008’s unstable commodity prices for both food and energy, but are unfamiliar with the literature and discussions surrounding the cash vs. food debate. After defining some key terms and presenting a brief review of the theory behind cash transfer use, the paper synthesizes evidence from studies that have evaluated past cash transfer programs. While the focus is on examples from Sub-Saharan Africa (primarily Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, Kenya), there are also valuable lessons incorporated from other regions of the world. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, africa, food security, commodity, price |
| JEL: | Q11 |
| Date: | 2009–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:idpwrk:96&r=afr |
| By: | Z Xu; Z Guan; T.S. Jayne; Roy Black |
| Abstract: | Major Findings: ? The additional maize produced from a given amount of fertilizer applied varied widely across households even after largely controlling for soil and rainfall conditions. The median estimated response rate was 15.9kgs of maize per kg nitrogen applied; ? Under the range of conditions and smallholder management practices, average maize fertilizer response rates declined as the application rate increased beyond 2 bags of urea and 2 bags of D compound; ? Factors raising the response rate and profitability of fertilizer use included timely availability, application rates less than the MOA 4x4 recommendation, use of animal draft power in land preparation, and use of hybrid seed. In remote areas, and given current management practices, fertilizer use appears to be profitable only for a minority of smallholder farmers in the relatively remote areas. For farmers in the more accessible areas, profitability of fertilizer use depends on timely availability. If fertilizer is not available on time, even farmers in the more accessible parts of this area of relatively high agronomic suitability for maize production are largely unable to use fertilizer profitably. ? Because over 30 percent of the households reported that fertilizer was delivered late, these findings indicate that efforts to ensure timely distribution can contribute substantially to the productivity gains achievable from fertilizer use. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, africa, zambia, fertilizer |
| JEL: | Q12 |
| Date: | 2009–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpbrf:zm_fsrp_pb_032&r=afr |
| By: | Anne Case; Alicia Menendez |
| Abstract: | We examine the costs associated with funerals and the effects of funeral spending on household functioning, using data collected in the Agincourt Demographic Surveillance Site in South Africa. We find that large outlays of money at the time of the funeral leave households vulnerable to future hardship. Households that buried a member report lower spending per person, poorer adult affect, and lower rates of school enrollment for children than do other households. We present evidence consistent with the financial burden associated with a funeral having direct, adverse effects on households. |
| JEL: | D12 O12 |
| Date: | 2009–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14998&r=afr |
| By: | Steven Haggblade |
| Abstract: | Across rural Africa, nonagricultural earnings account for roughly one-third of total income. Highly seasonal, nonfarm activity fills in labor troughs in the agricultural calendar. Despite a common emphasis on rural industries, manufacturing typically accounts for only 20-25% of rural nonfarm employment, while trade, transport, construction and other services account for 75-80%. Apart from sorghum beer brewing, rural manufacturing remains limited across most of Africa. Remittances from urban areas prove important in some locations, particularly in areas with large mining labor exports. But, over all, local rural services, commercial and other business activity account for 80% of rural nonfarm earnings. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, growth, poor, food security |
| JEL: | Q12 |
| Date: | 2009–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:afr_rr_02&r=afr |
| By: | David L. Tschirley; Miltone Ayieko |
| Abstract: | After reviewing trends in the production and marketing of fresh produce for the domestic market in Kenya since 1997, this paper presents detailed information on the structure of the flow of this produce from rural areas to wholesale markets in Nairobi and from those wholesale markets to assorted retail markets. Market shares are estimated by product for geographic areas supplying Nairobi, and for each important wholesale and retail market in the city. It is found that horticultural production for the domestic market is keeping up with rural population growth but not with the much faster urban population growth. The urban wholesaling and retailing system has decentralized dramatically and with little planning over the past two decades in response to lack of investment in public market places. In the current system, all participants are subjected to high costs and poor quality, and many traders, especially but not only those in kiosks, are subject to theft and even bodily injury. Collaborative planning for new investment between city officials and farmer- and trader organizations is badly needed; positive signs of movement in this direction include a more constructive approach to kiosks and joint public/private planning for a new wholesale market outside Nairobi. As new approaches to wholesaling and retailing are considered in response to Vision 2030, the continuing importance of existing market places means that complementary improvements in these markets, at the same time that investments in new markets are being made, will have major positive effects on farmers and consumers. |
| Keywords: | Africa, horticulture, market, production |
| JEL: | Q13 |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:ke_tegemeo_wp_xx&r=afr |
| By: | David J. Megill |
| Abstract: | In 2001 the first Supplemental Survey (SS) was conducted using the panel of the sample households selected for the 1999/2000 Post-Harvest Survey (PHS). All of the sample households in the PHS 99/00 that were found in the sample standard enumeration areas (SEAs) in 2001 were included in the sample for this first SS. The SS04 and SS08 followed this same panel of sample households three and seven years later to provide additional longitudinal data for these households. The main objective of the SS was to provide longitudinal data for the sample households in the panel that can be used to study micro-level changes in agricultural practices and socio-economic characteristics over time. The correlation in the sample data between each SS and the PHS 99/00 will improve the precision of the estimates of trends over time for relative indicators such means and proportions. |
| Keywords: | AGRICULTURE, AFRICA, SURVEY, FOOD SECURITY |
| JEL: | Q19 |
| Date: | 2009–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:zm-fsrp-wp-37&r=afr |
| By: | Torfinn Harding and Jørn Rattsø (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | The analysis of the effect of tariffs for labor productivity faces the challenge of tariff policy endogeneity. Tariff policy is designed to promote economic development and the industrial sector tariff structure may reflect characteristics of the industries protected. We seek to identify the effect of tariffs by taking advantage of multilateral tariff liberalization using reductions in industrial sector tariffs in other world regions as instruments for sectoral tariff reductions in South Africa. The data cover 28 manufacturing sectors over the period 1988-2003. We find that tariff reductions have stimulated labor productivity when instrumented by multilateral tariffs. The OLS estimates show downward bias and supports the understanding that the government has given priority to tariff reductions in sectors with slow productivity growth. |
| Keywords: | Trade policy; policy evaluation; barriers to growth; technology adoption; South Africa; labor productivity |
| JEL: | F13 F43 O11 O33 O55 |
| Date: | 2009–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:585&r=afr |
| By: | David Mather; Benedito Cunguara; Duncan Boughton |
| Abstract: | Mozambique made impressive reductions in poverty from 1996 to 2002. The national poverty rate, as documented by the National Household Consumption Survey Inquérito aos Agregados Familiares (IAF) expenditure surveys in those years, fell from 69.4% in 1996/97 to 54.1% in 2002/03. Consistent with the IAF expenditure survey results, Trabalho de Inquerito Agricola (TIA) rural household income surveys showed that mean and median rural household income per adult equivalent increased by 65% and 30% respectively from 1995/96 to 2001/02, and that all income quintiles shared in the income growth. Yet in spite of these impressive gains in household welfare, the majority of the country’s population remained below the poverty line in 2002/03 (51.5% in urban areas, 55.3% in rural). The first objective of this paper is to determine whether the upward trends in household welfare found from 1996 to 2002 have continued from 2002 to 2005, as measured in terms of TIA income and assets. The second objective of this paper is to use information about the structure of rural household income, asset levels, and access to technology and public goods in TIA 2002 and 2005, to investigate the prospects for continued rural economic growth, as well as the question of whether or not one could expect income growth to continue to be as broad- based as it was from 1996 to 2002. A key insight from the analysis of rural income growth in Mozambique from 1996 to 2002 is that the poorest 80% of rural households derived most of their gains from increases in crop income, which appear to have come primarily from expansion of cultivated area, not improved productivity. To address the first two objectives, we use data from the rural household income survey conducted by the Ministry of Agriculture in 2005, the TIA, which re-surveyed more than 80% of the households included in the previous TIA rural household income survey conducted in 2002, thus generating the first nationally representative panel household dataset for rural Mozambique. The third objective of this paper is to provide background information on the methods used to construct the income variables for the TIA 2002-2005 panel and the TIA 2002 and TIA 2005 full cross-sectional datasets. This panel household income dataset has already been used in two related papers, one which investigates household income poverty dynamics from 2002-2005 (Cunguara et al. 2008), and another which uses multivariate panel regression analysis to assess the relative impact on household crop income of changes in household asset levels, input choices, and access to crop production technology and public goods (Mather forthcoming). |
| Keywords: | africa, agriculture, mozambique, income, growth |
| JEL: | Q12 |
| Date: | 2008–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:mz_minag_rr_66&r=afr |
| By: | T.S. Jayne; Ballard Zulu; Gear Kajoba; Michael T. Weber |
| Abstract: | It might be considered unlikely that inadequate access to land would be one of the major causes of rural poverty in Zambia. However, evidence presented in this paper shows that economically viable arable land is not in great abundance in Zambia after considering the current situation with respect to access to road infrastructure and access to services and markets. In fact, access to land is already a major problem for large segments of the rural population in Zambia. Moreover, depending of future land allocation policy, access to good quality land with a market potential may become increasingly beyond the reach of many small-scale farm households, making it more difficult to achieve a smallholder-led, pro-poor agricultural development trajectory. |
| Keywords: | AGRICULTURE, ZAMBIA, LAND, POVERTY |
| JEL: | Q13 |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:zm-fsrp-wp-34&r=afr |
| By: | Ngeleza, Guyslain K.; Muhammad, Andrew |
| Abstract: | "This paper uses a computable general equilibrium approach to simulate two opposing views describing regional trade agreements either as building blocks for or stumbling blocks to multilateral trade liberalization. This study focuses on the free trade agreement (FTA) between the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) and the European Union (EU). Results show that although a regional trade agreement may slightly raise welfare among the members of the agreement, the cost to nonmembers can be high. In this paper we argue that multilateral liberalization and a regional free trade agreement between the EU and CEMAC are not mutually exclusive. Regional trade agreements should be complementary and consistent with a multilateral agreement, not an attempt to replace it. The regional breakdown in our design considers 14 regions, allowing for country-specific analysis for one least-developed country (Democratic Republic of Congo) and one non-least-developed country (Cameroon). Multilateral liberalization amplifies welfare gain for Cameroon. The Democratic Republic of Congo, with its weaker institutional capacity, is affected negatively. An EU-CEMAC FTA without multilateralism produces gains for both Cameroon and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The gain for Cameroon is, however, moderate compared with that achieved when the EU-CEMAC FTA is accompanied with a multilateral agreement." from authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Regional trade, multilateral trade, Computable General Equilibrium Models, European Union, Development strategies, |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:859&r=afr |
| By: | Nir Klein; Alexander Kyei |
| Abstract: | In recent years, the decline in inflation in Angola has stalled and further steps may be needed to attain the authorities' medium term goal of meeting the Southern African Development Community (SADC) convergence criteria of a low single digit inflation rate. A Vector Error Correction (VEC) model, which analyzes the factors that affect the inflationary process in Angola, suggests that the inflation path has been largely affected by exchange rate movements. This implies that greater exchange rate flexibility that facilitates a gradual appreciation would be instrumental to moderate price growth through reducing the price of imports and limiting liquidity injection by the National Bank of Angola (BNA). Additionally, the analysis shows that excess liquidity, which is measured by positive deviations of M2 from its equilibrium level, adds to demand pressures, and contributes to inflation with a lag. This underlines the importance of closely monitoring the growth of monetary aggregates as well as improving liquidity management. |
| Keywords: | Inflation , Angola , Inflation rates , Monetary aggregates , Oil exports , Commodity price fluctuations , Exchange rates , Excess liquidity , Liquidity management , Economic models , Data analysis , |
| Date: | 2009–05–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/98&r=afr |
| By: | Clemens Breisinger; Xinshen Diao; Rainer Schweickert; Manfred Wiebelt |
| Abstract: | Contemporary policy debates on the macroeconomics of resource booms often concentrate on the short-run Dutch disease effects of public expenditure ignoring the possible long-term effects of alternative revenue-allocation options and the supply-side impact of royalty-financed public investments. In a simple model applied here, the government decides the level and timing of spending out of resource rents. This model also considers productivity spillovers over time, which may exhibit a sector bias toward domestic production or exports. A dynamic computable general equilibrium model is used to simulate the effect of temporary oil revenue inflows to Ghana. The simulations show that beyond the short-run Dutch disease effects, the relationship between windfall profits, growth and households’ welfare is less straightforward than what the simple model of the "resource curse" suggests. The CGE model results suggest that designing a rule to smoothing in and out of oil revenues between productivity enhancing investments and an oil fund is crucial to achieving both shared growth and macroeconomic stability |
| Keywords: | oil fund, public expenditures, growth, productivity spillovers, Ghana, CGE analysis |
| JEL: | H4 O5 |
| Date: | 2009–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kie:kieliw:1518&r=afr |
| By: | Eleonora Nillesen (Development Economics Group, Wageningen University); Philip Verwimp (Fund for Scientific Research (Flanders, Belgium), University of Antwerp) |
| Abstract: | Recent literature in the political economy of civil war has pointed to the importance of (changes) in the economic environment for the understanding of conflict dynamics. Three channels, negative income shocks, the presence of exportable commodities and indiscriminate violence inflicted on one’s community are considered as drivers of conflict. This paper studies these channels with a new fifteen-year panel of community level data on Burundi whose coffee sector is intimately intertwined with the civil war. We find that indiscriminate violence inflicted at the start of the civil war (1993) continued to affect recruitment throughout the entire civil war. We also find that decreases in the producer price of coffee increases recruitment. Aiming to distinguish the resentment aspect from the opportunity aspect in low producer prices, we perform robustness tests with different specifications and with year-province rainfall shocks affecting overall agricultural income, not just coffee. Results indicate that it is the opportunity cost mechanism that drives increased recruitment. |
| Keywords: | Civil war, recruitment, indiscriminate violence, coffee, rainfall |
| JEL: | C23 N37 N47 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcn:rwpapr:11&r=afr |
| By: | Sami Bibi; John Cockburn; Luca Tiberti; Massa Coulibaly |
| Abstract: | Depuis 2006, le Mali subit de plein fouet les effets de la crise alimentaire mondiale avec des augmentations de prix allant jusqu'à 67%. Cette étude propose des simulations des impacts de cette crise et de diverses politiques de réponse sur le bien-être des enfants. Les impacts analysés se situent au niveau de la pauvreté monétaire (alimentaire), la nutrition, l'éducation, le travail et l'accès aux services de santé des enfants. Selon les simulations, chez les enfants la pauvreté alimentaire aura augmenté de 41 à 51% et le taux d'insuffisance calorique de 32 à 40%, alors que les impacts sur leur participation scolaire, leur travail et leur accès aux services de santé auront été assez faibles. Pour préparer une réponse adéquate, le gouvernement doit tout d'abord identifier les individus pauvres à protéger sur la base d'un nombre restreint de caractéristiques sociodémographiques facilement observables. Dans cette étude, une méthode de ciblage est proposée. Toutefois, les simulations du modèle de ciblage montrent qu’environ un quart des enfants pauvres sont exclus par erreur (souscouverture), alors que plus du tiers des enfants non-pauvres sont inclus par erreur (fuites). Ces erreurs de ciblage, qui augmentent proportionnellement lorsqu'on vise les pauvres extrêmes, réduisent l'impact et augmentent les coûts de toute intervention politique. Cela dit, il est à noter que les fuites peuvent quand même agir au niveau de l'insuffisance calorique, de la participation scolaire, du travail des enfants et de l'accès aux services de santé où les besoins ne se trouvent pas exclusivement du côté des enfants pauvres. Le ciblage des enfants ou même des sous-groupes, par âge, d'enfants se bute au problème de la diffusion probable des bénéfices aux autres membres du ménage. De plus, pour des décisions concernant le travail, l'éducation et l'accès aux services de santé, c'est le revenu total du ménage qui est déterminant. La politique de cantines scolaires se révèle particulièrement efficace du fait qu'elle concentre tous les fonds publics consentis exclusivement sur la consommation alimentaire hautement nutritive, alors que des transferts en espèces aux ménages peuvent servir à diverses fins. De plus, il est probable qu'elle ait des impacts souhaitables sur la scolarisation et le travail des enfants. Toutefois, certaines mises en garde s'imposent sur l'exclusion des enfants qui ne participent pas à l'école, la difficulté de cibler uniquement les enfants pauvres et la possibilité que l'enfant se voit réduire proportionnellement ses rations alimentaires à l’intérieur du ménage. |
| Keywords: | child education; child health; child labour; child poverty; economic crisis; food shortage; nutrition; |
| JEL: | E39 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucf:inwopa:inwopa09/59&r=afr |