nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2009‒05‒09
three papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. NAMA as a Tool of De-industrialization of Africa By Shafaeddin, Mehdi
  2. Agricultural productivity and mortality: evidence from Kagera, Tanzania By Ikegami, Munenobu
  3. L’aide pour le commerce dans le secteur manufacturier : Le cas du Cameroun. By DJEMMO FOTSO Arnaud, Arnaud

  1. By: Shafaeddin, Mehdi
    Abstract: Abstract The author argues in this chapter that trade liberalization in Africa during the last couple of decades has led to de-industrialization, slow growth of GDP, low level of investment, growing trade deficits, particularly in food items, in many African countries. This has been the case despite some improvement in recent years due to increases in the price of primary commodities. Drawing also on the experience of successful industrializers as well as failures of premature trade liberalization in low-income countries in recent decades, he further refers to pitfalls in negotiations on NAMA in WTO against the interest of African countries. Discussing the proposals made by developed countries on NAMA, he argues that if they are agreed upon, the structure of production and exports of African countries would be locked in primary commodities, resource based activities and at best low-skill labour intensive products and assembly operation. Finally, he outlines conditions for industrialization of Africa and the required changes in international trade rules in a way to become conducive to growth and upgrading of the industrial activities of the continents.
    Keywords: Africa; WTO; trade policy; NAMA nogotiation
    JEL: F00 F13 F10 O10 F53 F51
    Date: 2009
  2. By: Ikegami, Munenobu
    Abstract: We ask whether prime-age adult mortality due to HIV/AIDS decreases the endowment of knowledge for agricultural production in Kagera, Tanzania, reducing total factor productivity. We also quantify how much this negative effect contributes to the decrease in long-term household agricultural income growth compared to the contribution of decreased accumulation of productive assets; household members, land, and livestock. We find that prime-age adult mortality decreases the accumulation of knowledge stock as total factor productivity and the contribution of this negative effect to the decrease in agricultural income growth is larger than the contribution of decreased accumulation of each productive asset.
    Keywords: mortality; human capital; HIV/AIDS; agriculture; total factor productivity; Tanzania
    JEL: D9 Q12 O12
    Date: 2009–04–30
  3. By: DJEMMO FOTSO Arnaud, Arnaud
    Abstract: Although the world markets are more and more opened following the successive waves of trade liberalization, there are numerous factors returning the competition more difficult for the most part of developing countries such as Cameroon, especially as regards of trade in the manufactured goods. It is to enable these countries to improve their international insertion and to benefit widely from results which will be obtained at the end of the Doha round that was initiated the Aid for trade initiative (AFT). The objective of this study is to analyse this initiative, such as it is implemented presently, to see if it can contribute to improve the manufacturing supply, an so facilitate the achievement by Cameroon of the status of emerging country before 2035. From a statistical analysis of the various streams and the existing mechanisms, we note that the AFT, such implemented presently, is unable to reduce the supply's constraints in Cameroonian’s manufacturing. This is due to the fact that choices tuned a particular attention on trade capacities (elaboration of the trade policy, participation in the negotiations) and little on the productive dynamics and on the intensification of the industrial potential of the country. Now, without industry, no trade. Under the hypothesis that the increasing interest of the donors for the AFT will pull an additional increase of the AFT in Cameroon, we suggest that a particular accent must be tuned to the productive capacities during the elaboration and the implementation of any AFT program in Cameroonian manufacturing through a support for the technological apprenticeship and innovation, and through the industrial upgrading.
    Keywords: Aide pour le commerce,contrainte à l’offre, secteur manufacturier.
    JEL: F42 F13 F14
    Date: 2009–01–10

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