nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2008‒07‒05
two papers chosen by
Marco Novarese
University Amedeo Avogadro

  1. A Dynamic Factor Model for Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables in South Africa By Rangan Gupta; Alain Kabundi
  2. Agricultural Progress in Cameroon, Ghana and Mali: Why it Happened and How to Sustain It By Joe Dewbre; Adeline Borot de Battisti

  1. By: Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Alain Kabundi (Department of Economics and Econometrics, University of Johannesburg)
    Abstract: This paper uses the Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) framework, which accommodates a large cross-section of macroeconomic time series for forecasting the per capita growth rate, inflation, and the nominal shortterm interest rate for the South African economy. The DFM used in this study contains 267 quarterly series observed over the period 1980Q1-2006Q4. The results, based on the RMSEs of one- to four-quartersahead out of sample forecasts over 2001Q1 to 2006Q4, indicate the DFM outperforms the NKDSGE in forecasting per capita growth, inflation and the nominal short-term interest rate. Moreover, the DFM performs no worse compared to the VARs, both classical and Bayesian, indicating the blessing of dimensionality.
    Keywords: Dynamic Factor Model, VAR, BVAR, NKDSGE Model, Forecast Accuracy
    JEL: C11 C13 C33 C53
    Date: 2008–06
  2. By: Joe Dewbre; Adeline Borot de Battisti
    Abstract: This booklet synthesizes findings from analysis of agricultural policy and performance in three African countries: Cameroon, Ghana and Mali. Case studies of each of these countries were undertaken as part of the Support for African Agriculture Project (SAAP), a project largely financed by the French Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Agriculture and the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD). The purpose was to identify constraints to agricultural growth and poverty reduction that might be eased through better policy, both domestically and internationally.
    Date: 2008–06

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