nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2007‒10‒13
28 papers chosen by
Suzanne McCoskey
George Washington University

  1. The Macroeconomic Implications of MDG-Based Strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa By John Weeks; Terry McKinley
  2. Lessons learnt from SACMEQII: South African student performance in regional context By Servaas van der Berg; Megan Louw
  3. Is food insecurity more severe in South Asia or Sub-Saharan Africa?: a comparative analysis using household expenditure survey data By Smith, Lisa C.; Wiesmann, Doris
  4. Stock Market Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: Critical Issues and Challenges By Charles Amo Yartey; Charles Komla Adjasi
  5. What Drives China's Growing Role in Africa? By Jian-Ye Wang
  6. Marriage, schooling, and excess mortality in prime-age adults: evidence from South Africa By Yamauchi, Futoshi
  7. Togo: Failed transition and misguided aid at the roots of economic misery By Kohnert, Dirk
  8. Policies to promote cereal intensification in Ethiopia: a review of evidence and experience By Byerlee,Derek; Spielman,David J.; Alemu,Dawit; Gautam,Madhur
  9. Is HIV/AIDS undermining Botswana's ‘success story'? implications for development strategy: By Thurlow, James
  10. Mortality, mobility, and schooling outcomes among orphans: evidence from Malawi By Ueyama, Mika
  11. The Common Monetary Area in Southern Africa: Shocks, Adjustment, and Policy Challenges By Iyabo Masha; Kazuko Shirono; Leighton Harris; Jian-Ye Wang
  12. Impact of Land Certification on Land Rental Market Participation in Tigray Region, Northern Ethiopia By Holden, Stein T.; Deininger, Klaus; Ghebru, Hosaena
  13. Competitiveness in the CFA Franc Zone By Charalambos G. Tsangarides; Gustavo Ramirez
  14. Managing conflict over natural resources in greater Kordofan, Sudan: some recurrent patterns and governance implications By Siddig, El Fatih Ali; El-Harizi, Khalid; Prato, Bettina
  15. Contextual appraisal of GM cotton diffusion in South Africa By Michel Fok; Marnus Gouse; Jean-Luc Hofs; Johann Kirsten
  16. La diffusion des taxis-motos dans l’Afrique urbaine au sud du sahara By Lourdes Diaz Olvera; Didier Plat; Pascal Pochet; Maïdadi Sahabana
  17. Regional disparities in Ghana: policy options and public investment implications By Al-Hassan, Ramatu M.; Diao, Xinshen
  18. Agricultural growth and investment options for poverty reduction in Rwanda: By Diao, Xinshen; Fan, Shenggen; Yu, Bingxin; Kanyarukiga, Sam
  19. Agricultural growth linkages in Ethiopia: estimates using fixed and flexible price models By Diao, Xinshen; Fekadu, Belay; Haggblade, Steven; Seyoum Taffesse, Alemayehu; Wamisho, Kassu; Yu, Bingxin
  20. Cost implications of agricultural land degradation in Ghana: By Diao, Xinshen; Sarpong, Daniel B.
  21. The bang for the birr: public expenditures and rural welfare in Ethiopia By Mogues, Tewodaj; Ayele, Gezahegn; Paulos, Zelekawork
  22. Une analyse d’impact économique et social des réformes économiques et de l'aide publique au développement au Mali – Un cadre macro-micro By Dorothée Boccanfuso; Massa Coulibaly; Luc Savard
  23. Public spending and poverty reduction in an oil-based economy: the case of Yemen By Chemingui, Mohamed Abdelbasset
  24. Integrated management of the Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia: hydropower and irrigation modeling By Block, Paul J.
  25. Une analyse d’impact économique et social de la cohérence des politiques économiques et aide publique au développement au Sénégal : Un cadre macro-micro By Dorothée Boccanfuso; Luc Savard
  26. Estimation of a Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model for Ghana By Elena Loukoianova; Plamen Iossifov
  27. The power mapping tool: a method for the empirical research of power relations By Schiffer, Eva
  28. Why has Unemployment in Algeria been higher than in MENA and Transition Countries By Kangni Kpodar

  1. By: John Weeks (Professor Emeritus, School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London); Terry McKinley (International Poverty Centre)
    Keywords: Macroeconomic; MDG; Sub-Saharan Africa; Poverty
    Date: 2007–10
  2. By: Servaas van der Berg (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University); Megan Louw (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University)
    Abstract: In regional context, South African students benefit from above average levels of public and private education resources. However, their performance on international tests – including SACMEQII (Southern African Consortium for Monitoring Educational Quality, 2000) – is extremely weak. The first part of the paper positions South Africa within southern and eastern Africa on the basis of SACMEQII Grade 6 mathematics test scores. Hierarchical linear modelling techniques are then employed to model the relationship between socio-economic status (SES) and schooling in this highly unequal country. Three important drivers of inequity in test scores emerge: principal concern with monitoring student progress, teacher absenteeism and teacher quality. These interact with SES to give richer students a strong advantage.
    Keywords: education quality, inequality, South Africa, Southern Africa, Hierarchical Linear Modelling
    JEL: I21
    Date: 2007
  3. By: Smith, Lisa C.; Wiesmann, Doris
    Abstract: "This paper uses data from national household expenditure surveys to explore whether food insecurity is more severe in South Asia or Sub-Saharan Africa. It employs two indicators of the diet quantity dimension of food insecurity, or the inability to access sufficient food: the prevalence of food energy deficiency and the prevalence of severe food energy deficiency. It also employs two indicators of the diet quality dimension, indicating lack of access to nutritious food: the prevalence of low diet diversity and the percent of energy from staple foods. It finds the regions' food energy deficiency prevalences to be quite close (51 percent in South Asia, 57 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa). However, the prevalence of severe food energy deficiency, which is more life threatening, is higher in Sub-Saharan Africa (51 percent versus 35 percent in South Asia). From a diet quality standpoint, the regions appear to suffer from a comparable and high reliance on staple foods in the diet to the neglect of foods rich in protein and micronutrients, but that Sub-Saharan Africa may be doing worse, as reflected in less diverse diets. The results confirm that both regions suffer from deep food insecurity problems but point to Sub-Saharan Africa as the region with the more severe problem, particularly when it comes to the diet quantity dimension of food insecurity. In deciding which region should be given greater emphasis in the international allocation of scarce development resources, the fact that the numbers of people affected by food insecurity are higher in South Asia should be taken into consideration." from Authors' Abstract
    Keywords: food security, Food energy deficiency, Diet quality,
    Date: 2007
  4. By: Charles Amo Yartey; Charles Komla Adjasi
    Abstract: This paper examines the economic importance of stock markets in Africa. It discusses policy options for promoting the development of the stock market in Africa. The results of the paper show that the stock markets have contributed to the financing of the growth of large corporations in certain African countries. An econometric investigation of the impact of stock markets on growth in selected African countries, however, finds inconclusive evidence even though stock market value traded seem to be positively and significantly associated with growth. African stock exchanges now face the challenge of integration and need better technical and institutional development to address the problem of low liquidity. Preconditions for successful regional approaches include the harmonization of legislations such as bankruptcy and accounting laws and a liberalized trade regime. Robust electronic trading systems and central depository systems will be important. Further domestic financial liberalization such as steps to improve the legal and accounting framework, private sector credit evaluation capabilities, and public sector regulatory oversight would also be beneficial.
    Date: 2007–08–30
  5. By: Jian-Ye Wang
    Abstract: What role does China play in Africa's development? What drives China's increasing economic involvement in the continent? This paper attempts to provide a quantified assessment of China's multifaceted influence as market, donor, financer and investor, and contractor and builder. Though in the past official development aid predominated, the paper argues that government policies, markets for each other's exports, Africa's demand for infrastructure, and differences in China's approach to financing have together moved commercial activities-trade and investment-to the center of China-Africa economic relations. While China's public sector, state financial institutions in particular, has been instrumental in the process, the influence of its private sector is increasing. Implications for the future of China-Africa economic relations are briefly noted.
    Keywords: Trade , China , Africa , Development assistance , Capital flows , Working Paper ,
    Date: 2007–08–30
  6. By: Yamauchi, Futoshi
    Abstract: "The institution of marriage plays some role in determining one's risk of exposure to HIV. Since the transmission of HIV in the population is mainly through sexual activity, avoiding infection depends on risk-avoiding behavior. Consistently, empirical results show that excess mortality is concentrated in not-yet married adults aged 20-39 among both men and women. Therefore, the choice of when and who to marry appears to be related to risk of exposure. The objective of this paper is to determine the effect that schooling has on HIV/AIDS excess mortality, using panel data from South Africa. This paper tests the hypothesis that schooling affects when and who one marries and thus impacts the risk of mortality from HIV/AIDS. The effect could be negative or positive. On the one hand, since educated agents have incentives to secure returns to their human capital in the future, more education implies earlier marriage, given that the marriage institution effectively decreases the HIV-related mortality risk. On the other hand, education increases the opportunity costs of marriage especially for women, who need to increase their time spent in the household. Thus, schooling may increase mortality risks due to the increased risk of HIV infection... Results show that schooling increases excess mortality among women, but not among men... In sum, schooling increases the opportunity cost of marriage for women, which delays marriage and increases their mortality risks in high HIV-prevalence societies, but has the opposite effect on men. Our analysis demonstrated the need to integrate our understandings of the marriage market, the labor market, schooling investments, and youth behavior to identify the determinants of AIDS-related excess mortality." from Authors' Abstract
    Keywords: Marriage, Schooling, Excess mortality, HIV/AIDS, Gender,
    Date: 2007
  7. By: Kohnert, Dirk
    Abstract: The holding of early parliamentary elections in Togo on October 14, 2007, most likely the first free and fair Togolese elections since decades, are considered internationally as a litmus test of despotic African regimes’ propensity to change towards democratization and economic prosperity. Western donors took Togo as model to test their approach of political conditionality of aid, which had been emphasised as corner stone of the joint EU-Africa strategy. Recent empirical findings on the linkage between democratization and economic performance are challenged in this paper. It is open to question, whether Togo’s expected economic consolidation and growth will be due to democratization of its institutions or to the improved external environment, notably the growing competition between global players for African natural resources.
    Keywords: democratization; governance; economic growth; development; LDCs; Africa
    JEL: N47 O17 P47
    Date: 2007–10–08
  8. By: Byerlee,Derek; Spielman,David J.; Alemu,Dawit; Gautam,Madhur
    Abstract: "Despite more than a decade of policies placing high priority on cereal intensification, backed by one of the highest rates of public expenditures on agricultural in Africa, Ethiopia has yet to see payoffs in terms of higher and more stable cereal yields, reduced dependency on food aid, improved food security, and lower consumer prices for staples. There is understandable concern about the performance, efficiency and sustainability of the agricultural sector, specifically in terms of the current systems for providing extension services, improved seed, fertilizer, and credit. This paper aims to illuminate possible solutions available to improving the prospects for cereal intensification in Ethiopia. The paper traces the largely state-led policies that have been put in place to stimulate increased cereal productivity and examines the extent to which these policies have had their intended impacts. This review indicates that although Ethiopia has an admirable and sustained record of supporting seed-fertilizer technological intensification in cereals, the related state-led policies have outlived their usefulness, suggesting the need for a rethinking of approaches." - from authors' abstract.
    Keywords: Cereal crops, Agricultural development, Agricultural extension work, Fertilizers, Seed industry and trade Developing countries,
    Date: 2007
  9. By: Thurlow, James
    Abstract: "Despite its strong growth record, Botswana faces two prominent development challenges: the onslaught of HIV/AIDS and the slowdown in diamond mining. This study estimates the growth and distributional impact of the HIV/AIDS pandemic and considers its implications for the country's development prospects, using a dynamic computable general equilibrium and microsimulation model that accounts for the cost of treatment. The results of this analysis indicate that HIV/AIDS reduces GDP growth by 1.6 percent, increases the absolute poverty headcount by 1.5 percentage points and disproportionately hurts labor-intensive manufacturing. Therefore, while mining has dominated the recent slowdown in Botswana's growth, the present findings suggest that HIV/AIDS is undermining economic diversification. Although providing treatment is projected to reclaim a quarter of the lost growth and a third of the poverty caused by the pandemic, the fiscal burden of treatment will constrain diversification, thus underscoring Botswana's need for development assistance. Furthermore, focusing resources toward treatment may worsen inequality, since the primary beneficiaries will be middle-income and urban households. Therefore, while HIV/AIDS is undermining Botswana's success story, both unemployment and a stagnant rural economy will remain binding constraints against further pro-poor development." from Author's Abstract
    Keywords: Growth, Poverty, Economic development, HIV/AIDS,
    Date: 2007
  10. By: Ueyama, Mika
    Abstract: "A tremendous increase in the number of orphans associated with a sharp rise in prime-age adult mortality due to AIDS has become a serious problem in Sub-Saharan Africa. In fact, more than 30 percent of school-aged children have lost at least one parent in Malawi. Lack of investments in human capital and adverse conditions during childhood are often associated with lower living standards in the future. Therefore, if orphans face an increased risk of poverty, exploitation, malnutrition, and poorer access to health care and schooling, early intervention is critical so as to avoid the potential poverty trap. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of orphanhood/parental death on children's mortality risks, migration behaviors, and schooling outcomes, by using household panel data from Malawi, which has the eighth-highest HIV prevalence rates in the world. A number of studies have analyzed the relationship between parental death and children's school enrollment, but very few have considered mortality and mobility of orphans. This study uses the Malawi Complementary Panel Survey (CPS) conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and another institution between January 2000 and July 2004. Since these panel data do not track individuals that move to other households, we take into account sample attritions of children. This study uses three estimation methodologies to explore different aspects of impacts. First, we analyze regression models with controls for various sets of household and child characteristics and for village fixed effects to examine heterogeneous impacts of orphanhood across different types of households. Second, we employ household fixed-effect models to test the differential effects of orphanhood on welfare outcomes among different types of orphans living in the same household. Third, we examine the impact of recent parental death—parental death between 2000 and 2004—on schooling outcomes. Empirical results show that maternal orphans, as well as double orphans, tend to face higher mortality risks and lower schooling outcomes than paternal and non-orphans do. This is especially so for boys. Similarly, maternal and double orphans tend to move to other households more frequently. Compared to adolescent orphans, the impact on younger orphans who enrolled in school after the introduction of universal free primary education in 1994 is more muted, suggesting that free primary education policies may have mitigated adverse shocks from parental death. More interestingly, the impacts of orphanhood on schooling outcomes are significantly gender-dependent: boys face severer negative impacts of being orphans than girls do. These empirical results are robust to sample attrition due to mortality and mobility." from Authors' Abstract
    Keywords: Orphans, Mortality, HIV/AIDS, Mobility, Sample attrition, Education,
    Date: 2007
  11. By: Iyabo Masha; Kazuko Shirono; Leighton Harris; Jian-Ye Wang
    Abstract: This study assesses the experience of the Common Monetary Area (CMA) based on available empirical evidence over the last two decades. It pays particular attention to member countries' adjustment to economic shocks in recent years and the inter-country linkages, including the spillover effects of policies. The paper draws the main lessons from the CMA experience, identifies key policy challenges, and discusses the issues facing the member countries in their efforts to achieve sustained growth. Implications for further economic integration in a broader regional context are also noted.
    Keywords: Working Paper , Monetary unions , Economic policy , Adjustment process , Financial integration , Financial sector ,
    Date: 2007–07–13
  12. By: Holden, Stein T.; Deininger, Klaus; Ghebru, Hosaena
    Abstract: There is a renewed interest in whether land reforms can contribute to market development in Africa and whether land reforms can be pro-poor. This paper uses unique household panel data from Tigray region in Ethiopia to assess the impact of the 1998 low-cost land registration and certification reform on land rental market participation over a period of eight years after the reform, using random effects probit and tobit panel data models for land leased out and leased in, while correcting for unobservable heterogeneity and endogeneity of having certificate. The analysis revealed that the land reform contributed to increased land rental market participation. Female-headed households became more willing to rent out land and making land available for more efficient producers. Average areas leased out and leased in increased after certification. The land rental market remained characterised with significant and non-convex transaction costs also after the reform as evidenced by significant state dependence, a low response to own holding size and a high share of non-participation in the land market, leaving room for further improvement.
    Keywords: Land certification; land rental market; panel data analysis; unobserved heterogeneity; household response; female-headed households
    JEL: Q15 Q24 O13
    Date: 2007–10–10
  13. By: Charalambos G. Tsangarides; Gustavo Ramirez
    Abstract: This paper reviews the evolution of competitiveness in the CFA franc zone using a proposed comprehensive competitiveness framework. In particular, we examine competitiveness in the WAEMU and CEMAC regions by analyzing the "environment" and "policy" components of competitiveness and their quantifiable determinants, including indicators to measure productivity and labor market conditions, prices and costs, macroeconomic performance, business environment, governance, and technology and infrastructure. Our findings suggest that despite some recent improvements-particularly for the CEMAC-both regions face serious competitiveness challenges when compared to pier groups of countries. In order to become more competitive, raise growth, and improve the quality of life, there is a need for structural reform to improve productivity, reduce factor costs, and create the right business, legal, and political environment to attract economic activity.
    Keywords: Working Paper , Export competitiveness , CFA franc , Exports , West African Economic and Monetary Union , Central African Economic and Monetary Community ,
    Date: 2007–08–30
  14. By: Siddig, El Fatih Ali; El-Harizi, Khalid; Prato, Bettina
    Abstract: "Despite the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, which brought to an end 20 years of civil war in the Sudan, this country continues to experience smaller-scale conflicts, particularly around access to and control of natural resources. Some observers lay the blame for this on ethnopolitical or tribal divisions. However, this paper argues that there are a variety of factors at play behind these conflicts, notably the combination of resource scarcity with a crisis of governance that is particularly evident in transitional areas like the Kordofan region. To gain a sense of the range of conflicts around natural resources in Kordofan, the authors reviewed existing records such as government archives; conducted interviews with politicians, federal and state government officials, farmers, pastoralists, and Native Administration leaders; and investigated findings in the field. Interviews also served to examine people's knowledge about government natural resource policies and their perceptions of the roles played by government and the Native Administration in conflict management and resolution. The paper presents 20 cases of stalemate competition or open conflict over natural resources in Kordofan. The cases center on (1) conflicts between farmers and herders over stock routes, gum arabic forests, gardens, watering points, and the use of dars (tribal homelands); (2) conflicts between herders and small farmers and government agents or large private investors over mechanized farming areas, oil infrastructure, and other private investments. In their analysis of natural resource governance in Sudan, the authors find that natural resources policies have often been weak foundations for sustainable resource use, and in some cases they have actually contributed to conflict. In addition, the volatile path of government devolution efforts concerning natural resources has undermined governance of these resources. While conflicts between farmers and herders were managed relatively successful in the past through customary land tenure systems, this is less and less the case today as a result of larger herds, reduced water and pasture, instability and prejudices stirred up by the war, and a proliferation of arms among herders. In addition, patron–client politics, weak natural resource management and development policies, and top-down government institutions have encouraged ethnic polarization and social divisions. The authors find that measures are needed to reform the process of natural resource management, making land use planning more comprehensive, building on local livelihood systems, and increasing public spending on infrastructure. In addition, sustainable property rights on farmland and on mobile resources should be redefined, and informal conflict management mechanisms restored to the extent that this is possible." Authors' Abstract
    Keywords: Conflict management, Natural resource management, Small farmers, Land use, Livelihoods, Public spending, infrastructure, Property rights, Governance, Sustainability,
    Date: 2007
  15. By: Michel Fok (UPR10 - Systèmes cotonniers en petits paysannats - [CIRAD]); Marnus Gouse (Department of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development - [University of Pretoria]); Jean-Luc Hofs (UPR10 - Systèmes cotonniers en petits paysannats - [CIRAD]); Johann Kirsten (Department of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development - [University of Pretoria])
    Abstract: L'essentiel de la production de coton en Afrique du Sud provient des fermiers à production commerciale, il est donc erroné de considérer l'adoption impressionnante de Coton Génétiquement Modifié (CGM) comme un exemple d'utilisation réussie par les petits producteurs. Le secteur coton sud-africain évolue dans un environnement instable de production et de commercialisation, et les petits producteurs en souffrent le plus en raison de leurs ressources financières limitées, de la faiblesse de leur production, de leurs faibles capacités de gestion et de commercialisation et de l'absence de choix de production alternative. La superficie totale en coton et le nombre de producteurs a diminué de manière drastique depuis l'introduction du CGM, ce phénomène amène les observateurs à remettre en cause le soi-disant "success story" du CGM en Afrique du Sud. L'expérience des petits producteurs dans ce pays montre que la seule introduction d'une technologie ne peut accroître durablement une production, les facteurs tels que les arrangements institutionnels jouent un rôle crucial. Les études antérieures avaient mis l'accent exclusivement sur la performance d'une technologie nouvelle en minimisant le rôle l'aspect institutionnel. Les résultats de notre recherche complète les études existantes en indiquant que la rentabilité de l'utilisation du CGM est faible dans un contexte défavorable sur le plan climatique et institutionnel. Ceci nous rappelle que l'agriculture pluviale est sensible aux aléas climatiques et que l'adoption d'une technologie nouvelle dans ces conditions peut accroître le risque financier lié à la production cotonnière.
    Keywords: coton; Afrique du Sud; OGM; Bt; évaluation d'impact; rentabilité
    Date: 2007–10–01
  16. By: Lourdes Diaz Olvera (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - [CNRS : UMR5593] - [Université Lumière - Lyon II] - [Ecole Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'Etat]); Didier Plat (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - [CNRS : UMR5593] - [Université Lumière - Lyon II] - [Ecole Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'Etat]); Pascal Pochet (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - [CNRS : UMR5593] - [Université Lumière - Lyon II] - [Ecole Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'Etat]); Maïdadi Sahabana (CUD - Communauté Urbaine de Douala - [Communauté Urbaine de Douala])
    Abstract: Dans plusieurs villes africaines, une nouvelle forme de transport artisanal tend à s’imposer rapidement : le moto-taxi. Ce mode de transport public satisfait une partie importante des besoins de transport mais suscite aussi de nombreuses critiques de la part des usagers, des autres opérateurs de transport public et des autorités. L’objectif de cette communication est d’une part, de montrer que l’essor des motos-taxis représente une réponse « par le bas » à la crise multiforme des villes et d’autre part, d’évaluer la place actuelle du moto-taxi dans le secteur des transports urbains et le système de mobilité, son intérêt et ses limites. Nous nous appuyons principalement sur des entretiens auprès des habitants et des conducteurs de moto-taxi de Douala ainsi que sur deux enquêtes quantitatives (enquête-ménages sur la mobilité quotidienne et enquête embarquée).
    Keywords: transport urbain ; mobilité ; transport public ; secteur informel
    Date: 2007
  17. By: Al-Hassan, Ramatu M.; Diao, Xinshen
    Abstract: "The development pattern in Ghana is characterised by a north-south divide in which the north lags far behind the south... This paper sets out to identify avenues for pro-poor growth in Ghana, focussing on agricultural opportunities, particularly in northern Ghana. Using an economywide, multimarket model and based on time series production data between 1991 and 2000 and Ghana Living Standards Survey data of 1991/92 and 1998/99, this paper analyzes the possible poverty reduction trends up to 2015 by assuming different patterns of growth. The results show that agriculture-led growth has a larger poverty reducing effect than nonagriculture-led growth... A review of the literature shows that while the north generally is a net migration area, the rewards of migration have been limited because people who migrate have no skills and are, therefore, limited to entering the informal job market where wages are low. The implication is to enhance this labour with education and skills. Ultimately, the regions must attract production investment to boost economic activity and generate local growth. The state must play a leading role in investing in productive and social infrastructure as a way of facilitating the environment for private sector operators.: from Authors' Abstract
    Keywords: Pro-poor growth, Regional inequality, Poverty reduction, Agricultural growth, Economywide modeling, Public investment,
    Date: 2007
  18. By: Diao, Xinshen; Fan, Shenggen; Yu, Bingxin; Kanyarukiga, Sam
    Abstract: "An economywide, multimarket (EMM) model was developed for Rwanda to analyze the linkages and trade-offs between growth and poverty reduction goals at both macro- and micro-economic levels. The model includes 30 agricultural commodities or commodity groups from eight broad agricultural subsectors, along with two aggregated nonagricultural sectors. The analysis compares the economic, income, and poverty effects of a variety of growth scenarios based on existing national subsector growth targets. The analysis shows 6 percent of CAADP's agricultural GDP growth target is achievable if growth reaches its target at the agricultural subsectoral level. But it is not enough for the country to achieve the MDG One, although the national poverty rate in 2015 will be 17 percent lower than that in 2005. Moreover, the household groups with the smallest landholding size, female-headed, or with few opportunities to participate cash crop production seem to benefit less from such growth. The study also examines the different growth-poverty linkages at agricultural subsector level, and shows that growth driven by productivity increases in staple crops and livestock production can reduce the poverty more than in the case where growth is driven by export crops or by the nonagricultural sector. The analysis also shows that to achieve growth required by CAADP and MDG One, the country needs to substantially beef up its public investment in agriculture. The share of agricultural spending in total government spending is required to increase from the current level of 5 percent to 10-35 percent in 2015." Authors' Abstract
    Keywords: Agricultural growth, Poverty reduction, Growth dynamics, Public investment,
    Date: 2007
  19. By: Diao, Xinshen; Fekadu, Belay; Haggblade, Steven; Seyoum Taffesse, Alemayehu; Wamisho, Kassu; Yu, Bingxin
    Abstract: "Accelerating growth and poverty reduction, and the ultimate achievement of structural transformation, are the critical policy challenges in present day Ethiopia. This paper examines relevant growth options in terms of their impact on overall growth and poverty reduction in the country. It deploys a fixed-price semi-input-output model and a flexible-price economy-wide multi-market model for that purpose. The paper finds that agricultural growth can induce higher overall growth and faster poverty reduction than non-agricultural growth, although the latter can also have large growth effects in some cases. Among sub-sectors within agriculture, staple crops have stronger growth linkages. Decomposition of these effects also reveals that consumption linkages are much stronger than production linkages, i.e., the impact of increased consumption demand due to growth (agricultural and non-agricultural) is much larger than that of the corresponding expansion in input demand. Moreover, non-agricultural sectors have to grow in order to match growing supply of agricultural products and increasing demand for non-agricultural products. Otherwise, falling relative prices of agricultural products may dampen the realized gains in growth and poverty reduction." from Authors' Abstract
    Keywords: Poverty reduction, Agricultural growth, Linkages, Staple food crops, non-agricultural sector, agricultural products, Prices,
    Date: 2007
  20. By: Diao, Xinshen; Sarpong, Daniel B.
    Abstract: "An economywide, multimarket model is constructed for Ghana and the effects of agricultural soil erosion on crop yields are explicitly modeled at the subnational regional level for eight main staple crops. The model is used to evaluate the aggregate economic costs of soil erosion by taking into account economywide linkages between production and consumption, across sectors and agricultural subsectors. To fill a gap in the literature regarding economic cost analysis of soil erosion, this paper also analyzes the poverty implications of land degradation. The model predicts that land degradation reduces agricultural income in Ghana by a total of US$4.2 billion over the period 2006–2015, which is approximately five percent of total agricultural GDP in these ten years. The effect of soil loss on poverty is also significant at the national level, equivalent to a 5.4 percentage point increase in the poverty rate in 2015 compared to the case of no soil loss. Moreover, soil loss causes a slowing of poverty reduction over time in the three northern regions, which currently have the highest poverty rates in the country. Sustainable land management (SLM) is the key to reducing agricultural soil loss. The present findings indicate that through the adoption of conventional SLM practices, the declining trend in land productivity can be reversed, and that use of a combination of conventional and modern SLM practices would generate an aggregate economic benefit of US$6.4 billion over the period 2006–2015. SLM practices would therefore significantly reduce poverty in Ghana, particularly in the three northern regions." Authors' Abstract
    Keywords: Land degradation, Costs, Agricultural soil loss, Economywide modeling, Modeling cost of land degradation,
    Date: 2007
  21. By: Mogues, Tewodaj; Ayele, Gezahegn; Paulos, Zelekawork
    Abstract: "This paper explores and compares the impact of different types of public spending on rural household welfare in Ethiopia. The analysis of public financial and household-level data reveals that returns to road investments are significantly higher than returns to other spending, but are much more variable across regions. This regional variability in returns to road investment suggests that the government should carefully consider region-differentiated investment priorities. Some evidence suggests that the returns to road spending are increasing over time, with higher returns to road investments seen in areas with better-developed road networks. Among the other types of public spending, the household expenditure impacts of per capita public expenditure in agriculture and education are smaller, but these effects are also less variable across regions than the effects of road infrastructure spending. The largest effects of agricultural expenditures on rural households are observed in the most urbanized regions, pointing to the potentially important impact of market proximity on returns to public interventions in agriculture. Despite the importance of agriculture to the economy of Ethiopia we found that returns to agricultural spending were fairly low, suggesting the need for further research into the drivers of efficiency and effectiveness of public investments in this important sector." from Authors' Abstract
    Keywords: Public investments, Public spending, Rural welfare,
    Date: 2007
  22. By: Dorothée Boccanfuso (GREDI, Faculte d'administration, Université de Sherbrooke); Massa Coulibaly (GREAT, Université du Mali); Luc Savard (GREDI, Faculte d'administration, Université de Sherbrooke)
    Abstract: Dans ce travail, nous analysons la cohérence des politiques de développement sur la pauvreté et la distribution des revenus. Les politiques économiques et de développement des pays développés ont un impact significatif sur les pays en voie de développement. Ces politiques sont généralement analysées de manière isolée. Or, celles-ci ne sont pas toujours indépendantes. Un modèle d’équilibre général calculable de type macro-micro est utilisé pour cette analyse. Nous analysons des politiques liés à l’aide publique au développement, au commerce extérieur, à la migration et à l’investissement direct étranger de manière indépendante avant de combiner certaines de ces politiques. Par la suite, nous évaluons les effets de ces politiques sur la pauvreté et les inégalités au Mali. Nos résultats ont montré que les effets peuvent être très différenciés et relativement importants en terme d’impact sur la pauvreté. L’impact distributif de la majorité des politiques simulées reste quant à lui, relativement faible.
    Keywords: computable general equilibrium model, micro-simulation, poverty analysis, income distribution, migration, Mali
    JEL: D58 I32 R58
    Date: 2007
  23. By: Chemingui, Mohamed Abdelbasset
    Abstract: "This study is part of a collaborative project between the International Food Policy Research Institute and the Arab Planning Institute in Kuwait on public policy and poverty reduction in the Arab region. The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of an increase in public spending in priority areas on economic growth and poverty reduction in Yemen. To accomplish this objective, the study builds a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model to provide a baseline scenario of changes in the economy and poverty levels in Yemen during the period 1998-2016. Alternative scenarios are then compared to isolate the specific impact of several policies on poverty. The scenarios assume an increase in public spending devoted to three priority areas (agriculture, education, and health), which affect the economy through an increase in sectoral or economy-wide technical factor productivity. Results of public spending experiments show that targeting increased amounts of public spending towards education and health services will generate more economic growth and poverty reduction than increasing public spending solely on the agricultural sector. However, when an oil sector is a prominent part of the economy, as in Yemen, additional public spending on health and education does not improve productivity in the oil sector. Therefore, spending on agriculture becomes the most important channel for poverty reduction and economic growth. While increasing public spending in priority areas appears to be the best solution available for the government to reduce poverty during the next decade, the road is still long for Yemen to be able to achieve its Millennium Development Goals for poverty reduction. Re-allocating public expenditures from defense to key sectors appears to be an additional option for reducing poverty, given the financial constraints facing Yemen. However, in the current context of terrorism concerns, it will be difficult to convince policy-makers to reduce spending on defense and security. Seeking additional resources from international donors seems to be the only option available to increase benefits from increased public spending in the priority areas identified and assessed in this study." from Authors' Abstract
    Keywords: Public investments, Poverty, economic growth,
    Date: 2007
  24. By: Block, Paul J.
    Abstract: "Ethiopia is at a critical crossroads with a large and increasing population, a depressed national economy, insufficient agricultural production, and a low number of developed energy sources. The upper Blue Nile basin harbors considerable untapped potential for irrigation and hydropower development and expansion. Numerous hydrologic models have been developed to assess hydropower and agricultural irrigation potential within the basin, yet often fail to adequately address critical aspects, including the transient stages of large-scale reservoirs, relevant flow retention policies and associated downstream ramifications, and the implications of stochastic modeling of variable climate and climate change. A hydrologic model with dynamic climate capabilities is constructed to assess these aspects. The model indicates that large-scale development typically produces benefit-cost ratios from 1.2-1.8 under historical climate regimes for the projects specified. Climate change scenarios indicate potential for small benefit-cost increases, but reflect possible significant decreases. Stochastic modeling of scenarios representing a doubling of the historical frequency of El Niño events indicates benefit-cost ratios as low as 1.0 due to a lack of timely water. An evaluation of expected energy growth rates reinforces the need for significant economic planning and the necessity of securing energy trade contracts prior to extensive development. A Ramsey growth model for energy development specifies project multipliers on total GDP over the 100-year simulation ranging from 1.7-5.2, for various climatologic conditions." Author's Abstract
    Keywords: Water resources development, Hydrologic model, Energy, Climate variability, Climate change, Irrigation,
    Date: 2007
  25. By: Dorothée Boccanfuso (GREDI, Faculte d'administration, Université de Sherbrooke); Luc Savard (GREDI, Faculte d'administration, Université de Sherbrooke)
    Abstract: Dans ce travail, nous analysons la cohérence de politiques de développement sur la pauvreté et la distribution des revenus au Sénégal. Les politiques économiques et de développements des pays développés ont un impact significatif sur les pays en voie de développement. Ces politiques sont généralement analysées de manières isolées. Or, celles-ci ne sont pas toujours indépendantes. Dans ce travail, nous utilisons un modèle d’équilibre général calculable de type macro-micro pour analyser des politiques liées à l’aide publique au développement, au commerce extérieur, à la migration et à l’investissement direct étranger de manières indépendantes avant de combiner certaines de ces politiques. Par la suite, nous évaluons les effets de ces politiques sur la pauvreté et les inégalités au Sénégal. Nos résultats ont montré que les effets peuvent être très différentiés et relativement forts en terme d’impact sur la pauvreté. L’impact distributif de la majorité des politiques simulées reste quant à lui, relativement faible.
    Keywords: computable general equilibrium model, micro-simulation, poverty analysis, income distribution, migration, Senegal
    JEL: D58 I32 R58
    Date: 2007
  26. By: Elena Loukoianova; Plamen Iossifov
    Abstract: The paper estimates a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model for Ghana. Regression results show that most of the REER's long-run behavior can be explained by real GDP growth, real interest rate differentials (both relative to trading-partner countries), and the real world prices of Ghana's main export commodities. On the basis of these fundamentals, the REER in late 2006 was found to be very close to its estimated equilibrium level. The results also suggest, that deviations from the equilibrium path are eliminated within two to three years.
    Keywords: Working Paper , Ghana , Export prices , Commodity prices , External competitiveness , Economic models ,
    Date: 2007–07–12
  27. By: Schiffer, Eva
    Abstract: "This paper presents an innovative participatory method to visualize, discuss and analyze the power of different actors in a given governance field. The Power Mapping Tool was first used to analyze the governance effects of Community-Based Natural Resource Management (CBNRM) in Namibia. This example is presented as a case study to show how the method works: The actors involved are represented by board game figures that are characterized through “range-of-action-cards” and put on wooden “power towers” to show their power in the governance field. The result is a three dimensional sketch that provides quantitative data and guides the qualitative discussion about reasons for and effects of the power of different actors. In the case of Namibian CBNRM Power Mapping helped to understand how power indeed had been devolved from the national to the local level. However, on the community level elite-capture was seen as a serious problem. In this research the Power Mapping Tool proved to be easy to use with a very diverse mix of interview partners and provided not only a wealth of data but also increased the interviewees' understanding of their own situation." from Authors' Abstract
    Keywords: Governance, Participatory methods, Decentralization, Natural resource management, Political power,
    Date: 2007
  28. By: Kangni Kpodar
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the determinants of labor market performance in Algeria. When the model is estimated with panel data on a sample of MENA and transition countries for 1995- 2005, the results suggest that lower growth in labor productivity in Algeria is associated with higher unemployment than the sample average, though recent positive terms of trade shocks have helped Algeria reduce the differential. Labor market rigidities and labor taxation do not seem to explain why unemployment is higher in Algeria than in other countries. The results are robust to various panel econometric methods and instrumental variable estimates.
    Keywords: Unemployment , Algeria , Labor markets , Taxation , Working Paper ,
    Date: 2007–08–30

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