|
on Africa |
| By: | Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep; Mendelsohn, Robert |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of climate change on cropland in Africa. It is based on a survey of more than 9,000 farmers in 11 countries: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Niger, Senegal, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The study uses a Ricardian cross-sectional approach in which net revenue is regressed on climate, water flow, soil, and economic variables. The results show that net revenues fall as precipitation falls or as temperatures warm across all the surveyed farms. In addition to examining all farms together, the study examined dryland and irrigated farms separately. Dryland farms are especially climate sensitive. Irrigated farms have a positive immediate response to warming because they are located in relatively cool parts of Africa. The study also examined some simple climate scenarios to see how Africa would respond to climate change. These uniform scenarios assume that only one aspect of climate changes and the change is uniform across all of Africa. In addition, the study examined three climate change scenarios from Atmospheric Oceanic General Circulation Models. These scenarios predicted changes in climate in each country over time. Not all countries are equally vulnerable to climate change. First, the climate scenarios predict different temperature and precipitation changes in each country. Second, it is also important whether a country is already hot and dry. Third, the extent to which farms are irrigated is also important. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change,Environmental Economics & Policies,Global Environment Facility,Common Property Resource Development,Crops & Crop Management Systems |
| Date: | 2007–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4305&r=afr |
| By: | Luca, MARCHIORI |
| Abstract: | In this paper, different scenarios of increased cooperation between China and African countries are simulated. Recent intensification of political and economic ties between China and Sub-Saharan Afreican countries may give hope that an economic improvement in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is possible. Three channels may lead to a catching-up for Africa with China : a reduction in AfricaÕs investment risk, an increase in its total factor productivity (TFP) and an improvement of its worker skills. A computable general equilibrium model of the world economy is used, that shares the world in 10 regions, among which Sub-Saharan Africa and China. Three scenarios are considered in which, by 2100, Africa will have reduced simultaneously its gaps in investment risk, TFP and eduction to China by either 20% (scenario 1), 40% (scenario2) or 60% (scenario3). The effects on the Sub-Saharan African economy are very promising. The results show that, already in 2050, Africa will have increased its per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 50% with scenario1, 80% with scenario 2 and by 125% with scenario 3. |
| Keywords: | OLG-CGE Model, Catching-up, sSmulations, Africa, China |
| JEL: | E27 J11 O47 O55 O57 |
| Date: | 2007–04–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvec:2007014&r=afr |
| By: | Laxminarayan, Ramanan; Klein, Eili; Dye, Christopher; Floyd, Katherine; Darley, Sarah; Adeyi, Olusoji |
| Abstract: | Tuberculosis is the most important infectious cause of adult deaths after HIV/AIDS in low- and middle-income countries. This paper evaluates the economic benefits of extending the World Health Organization ' s DOTS Strategy (a multi-component approach that includes directly observed treatment, short course chemoth erapy and several other components) as proposed in the Global Plan to Stop TB, 2006-2015. The authors use a model-based approach that combines epidemiological projections of averted mortality and economic benefits measured using value of statistical life for the Sub-Saharan Africa region and the 22 high-burden, tuberculosis-endemic countries in the world. The analysis finds that the economic benefits between 2006 and 2015 of sustaining DOTS at current levels relative to having no DOTS coverage are significantly greater than the costs in the 22 high-burden, tuberculosis-endemic countries and the Africa region. The marginal benefits of implementing the Global Plan to Stop TB relative to a no-DOTS scenario exceed the marginal costs by a factor of 15 in the 22 high-burden endemic countries, a factor of 9 (95% CI, 8-9) in the Africa region, and a factor of 9 (95% CI, 9-10) in the nine high-burden African countries. Uncertainty analysis shows that benefit-cost ratios of the Global Plan strategy relative to sustained DOTS were unambiguously greater than one in all nine high-burden countries in Africa and in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Russia. Although HIV curtails the effect of the tuberculosis programs by lowering the life expectancy of those receiving treatment, the benefits of the Global Plan are greatest in African countries with high levels of HIV. |
| Keywords: | Health Monitoring & Evaluation,Disease Control & Prevention,Population Policies,Health Systems Development & Reform,Poverty and Health |
| Date: | 2007–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4295&r=afr |
| By: | Lotsch, Alexander |
| Abstract: | The detailed analysis of current cropping areas in Africa presented here reveals s ignificant climate sensitivities of cropland density and distribution across a variety of agro-ecosystems. Based on empirical climate-cropland relationships, cropland density responds positively to increases in precipitation in semi-arid and arid zones of the sub-tropics and warmer temperatures in higher elevations. As a result, marginal increases in seasonal precipitation lead to denser cropping areas in arid and semi-arid regions. Warmer temperatures, on the other hand, tend to decrease the probability of cropping in most parts of Africa (the opposite is true for increases in rainfall and decreases in temperatures relative to current conditions). Despite discrepancies and uncertainties in climate model output, the analysis suggests that cropland area in Africa is likely to decrease significantly in response to transient changes in climate. The continent is expected to have lost on average 4.1 percent of its cropland by 2039, and 18.4 percent is likely to have disappeared by the end of the century. In some regions of Africa the losses in cropland area are likely to occur at a much faster rate, with northern and eastern Africa losing up to 15 percent of their current cropland area within the next 30 years or so. Gains in cropland area in western and southern Africa due to projected increases in precipitation during the earlier portions of the century will be offset by losses later on. In conjunction with existing challenges in the agricultural sector in Africa, these findings demand sound policies to manage existing agricultural lands and the productivity of cropping systems. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change,Crops & Crop Management Systems,Global Environment Facility,Common Property Resource Development,Rural Poverty Reduction |
| Date: | 2007–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4289&r=afr |
| By: | Maddison, David; Manley, Marita; Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the Ricardian approach to examine how farmers in 11 countries in Africa have adapted to existing climatic conditions. It then estimates the effects of predicted changes in climate while accounting for whatever farmer adaptation might occur. This study differs from earlier ones by using farmers ' own perceptions of the value of their land. Previous research, by contrast, has relied on either observed sale prices or net revenues, sometimes aggregated over geographically large tracts of terrain. The study also makes use of high resolution data describing soil quality and runoff. Furthermore, it tackles the challenges involved in modeling the effect of climate on agriculture in a study that includes countries in the northern and southern hemispheres, as well as the tropics. The study confirms that African agriculture is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Even with perfect adaptation, regional climate change by 2050 is predicted to entail production losses of 19.9 percent for Burkina Faso and 30.5 percent for Niger. By contrast, countries such as Ethiopia and South Africa are hardly affected at all, suffering productivity losses of only 1.3 percent and 3 percent, respectively. The study also confirms the importance of water supplies as measured by runoff, which, being affected by both temperature and precipitation, may itself be highly sensitive to climate change. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics & Policies,Climate Change,Common Property Resource Development,Rural Development Knowledge & Information Systems,Global Environment Facility |
| Date: | 2007–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4306&r=afr |
| By: | Wahaj, Robina; Maraux, Florent; Munoz, Giovanni |
| Abstract: | This report aims to synthesize the results of a crop water use study conducted by country teams of the GEF/World Bank project, Regional Climate, Water, and Agriculture: Impacts on and Adaptation of Agro-ecological Systems in Africa. It also presents the results of the second phase of the study based on climate change scenarios, conducted by the South Africa country team. The actual evapotranspiration of five commonly grown crops-maize, millet, sorghum, groundnuts, and beans-in t wo selected districts were analyzed by six country teams. In addition, two country teams also analyzed other crops grown in the districts. The regional analysis shows that the actual yield of the different crops-specifically of maize and groundnuts-improves with an increase in actual evapotranspiration, although the gap remains wide between actual and potential yield and actual and maximum evapotranspiration, especially for the rainfed crops. This highlights the importance of improved water management if agriculture is to play an important role as a source of food security and better livelihoods. The report highlights the vulnerability of maize to water stress and the increased risks to the viability of rainfed farming systems based on this crop. The results of the second phase of analysis show that a 2°C increase in the temperature and a doubling of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere will shorten the growing period of maize, which will result in decreased crop water requirement and use. The authors recommend extending this type of analysis to other crops as well as to other countries to develop a clearer picture of the changing pattern in crop water use of the major crops grown in the project countries. |
| Keywords: | Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions,Crops & Crop Management Systems,Water Conservation,Water Supply and Systems,Town Water Supply and Sanitation |
| Date: | 2007–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4288&r=afr |
| By: | Maddison, David |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to determine the ability of farmers in Africa to detect climate change, and to ascertain how they have adapted to whatever climate change they believe has occurred. The paper also asks farmers whether they perceive any barriers to adaptation and attempts to determine the characteristics of those farmers who, despite claiming to have witnessed climate change, have not yet responded to it. The study is based on a large-scale survey of agriculturalists in 11 African countries. The survey reveals that significant numbers of farmers believe that temperatures have already increased and that precipitation has declined. Those with the greatest experience of farming are more likely to notice climate change. Further, neighboring farmers tell a consistent story. There are important differences in the propensity of farmers living in different locations to adapt and there may be institutional impediments to adaptation in some countries. Although large numbers of farmers perceive no barriers to adaptation, those that do perceive them tend to cite their poverty and inability to borrow. Few if any farmers mentioned lack of appropriate seed, security of tenure, or market accessibility as problems. Those farmers who perceive climate change but fail to respond may require particular incentives or assistance to do what is ultimately in their own best interests. Although experienced farmers are more likely to perceive climate change, it is educated farmers who are more likely to respond by making at least one adaptation. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change,Rural Poverty Reduction,Environmental Economics & Policies,Agricultural Knowledge & Information Systems,Rural Development Knowledge & Information Systems |
| Date: | 2007–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4308&r=afr |
| By: | Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep; Mendelsohn, Robert |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether the choice of crops is affected by climate in Africa. Using a multinomial logit model, the paper regresses crop choice on climate, soils, and other factors. The model is estimated using a sample of more than 7,000 farmers across 11 countries in Africa. The study finds that crop choice is very climate sensitive. For example, farmers select sorghum and maize-millet in the cooler regions of Africa; maize-beans, maize-groundnut, and maize in moderately warm regions ' and cowpea, cowpea-sorghum, and millet-groundnut in hot regions. Further, farmers choose sorghum, and millet-groundnut when conditions are dry; cowpea, cowpea-sorghum, maize-millet, and maize when medium wet; and maize-beans and maize-groundnut when wet. As temperatures warm, farmers will shift toward more heat tolerant cro ps. Depending on whether precipitation increases or decreases, farmers will also shift toward drought tolerant or water loving crops, respectively. There are several policy relevant conclusions to draw from this study. First, farmers will adapt to climate change by switching crops. Second, global warming impact studies cannot assume crop choice is exogenous. Third, this study only examines choices across current crops. Future farmers may well have more choices. There is an important role for agronomic research in developing new varieties more suited for higher temperatures. Future farmers may have even better adaptation alternatives with an expanded set of crop choices specifically targeted at higher temperatures. |
| Keywords: | Crops & Crop Management Systems,Climate Change,Agriculture & Farming Systems,Renewable Energy,Global Environment Facility |
| Date: | 2007–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4307&r=afr |
| By: | Mano, Reneth; Nhemachena, Charles |
| Abstract: | This study uses the Ricardian approach to examine the economic impact of climate change on agriculture in Zimbabwe. Net farm revenue is regressed against various climate, soil, hydrological and socio-economic variables to help determine the factors that influence variability in net farm revenues. The study is based on data from a survey of 700 smallholder farming households interviewed across the country. The empirical results show that climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) have significant effects on net farm revenues in Zimbabwe. In addition to the analysis of all farms, the study also analyzes the effects on dryland farms and farms with irrigation. The analysis indicates that net farm revenues are affected negatively by increases in temperature and positively by increases in precipitation. The results from sensitivity analysis suggest that agricultural production in Zimbabwe ' s smallholder farming system is significantly constrained by climatic factors (high temperature and low rainfall). The elasticity results show that the changes in net revenue are high for dryland farming compared to farms with irrigation. The results show that farms with irrigation are more resistant to changes in climate, indicating that irrigation is an important adaptation option to help reduce the impact of further changes in climate. An overview of farmer adaptation to changing climate indicates that farmers are already using some adaptation strategies-such as dry and early planting, growing drought resistant crops, changing planting dates, and using irrigation-to cushion themselves against further anticipated adverse climatic conditions. An important policy message from the empirical findings is that there is a need to provide adequate extension information services to ensure that farmers receive up-to-date information about rainfall patterns in the forthcoming season so that they make well-informed decisions on their planting dates. Policies that increase farmer training and access to credit and aid facilities and help farmers acquire livestock and other important farm assets can help improve net farm performance. Ensuring the availability and accessibility of fertilizers and crop seeds before the onset of the next cropping season can also significantly improve net farm performance across households. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change,Environmental Economics & Policies,Crops & Crop Management Systems,Agriculture & Farming Systems,Rural Development Knowledge & Information Systems |
| Date: | 2007–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4292&r=afr |
| By: | Johannes Van Biesebroeck |
| Abstract: | Using a matched employer-employee data set of manufacturing plants in three sub-Saharan countries, I compare the marginal productivity of different categories of workers with the wages they earn. A methodological contribution is to estimate the firm level production function jointly with the individual level wage equation using a feasible GLS estimator. The additional information of individual workers leads to more precise estimates, especially of the wage premiums, and to a more accurate test. The results indicate that equality holds strongly for the most developed country in the sample (Zimbabwe), but not at all for the least developed country (Tanzania). Moreover, the breakdown in correct remuneration in the two least developed countries follows a distinct pattern. On the one hand, wage premiums exceed productivity premiums for general human capital characteristics (experience and schooling). On the other hand, salaries hardly increase for more firm-specific human capital characteristics (tenure and training), even though these have a clear productivity effect. |
| JEL: | J31 O12 |
| Date: | 2007–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13306&r=afr |
| By: | Strzepek, Kenneth; McCluskey, Alyssa |
| Abstract: | This paper summarizes the methods and findings of the hydrological assessment component of the project studying likely impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in Africa. The first phase of the study used a version of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model called WatBal (Water Balance) applied to gridded data to simulate changes in soil moisture and runoff across the whole continent of Africa rather than to any particular catchment or water resource system. The model inputs were the climate variables of the 1961-90 climatology and physiological parameters (such as soil properties and land use) derived from global datasets for each of the 0.5o latitude/longitude cells across the continent. The primary model output comprised a time series (monthly time step) of simulated runoff for all the grid cells for each of the districts in the countries of interest. The second phase of the study extended the hydrology analyses to update the above hydroclimatic series to the year 2000 using updated input data. To ascertain the possible impacts of climate change within the districts being investigated this study used synthetic or GCMbased clima te change scenarios as input to the WatBal model. The WatBal model was used to determine the impact of these different scenarios on runoff and actual evaporation and hence flow in the districts under study. The generated hydroclimatic series and scenario analyses were used as inputs into various Ricardian regressions in other analyses measuring likely impacts of climate change on the agricultural economies of Africa. |
| Keywords: | Wetlands,Climate Change,Water Supply and Systems,Global Environment Facility,Common Property Resource Development |
| Date: | 2007–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4290&r=afr |
| By: | Siyan Chen; Norman V. Loayza; Marta Reynal-Querol |
| Abstract: | Using an “event-study” methodology, this paper analyzes the aftermath of civil war in a cross-section of countries. It focuses on those experiences where the end of conflict marks the beginning of a relatively lasting peace. The paper considers 41 countries involved in internal wars in the period 1960-2003. In order to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the aftermath of war, the paper considers a host of social areas represented by basic indicators of economic performance, health and education, political development, demographic trends, and conflict and security issues. For each of these indicators, the paper first compares the post- and pre-war situations and then examines their dynamic trends during the post-conflict period. It conducts this analysis both in absolute and relative terms, the latter in relation to control groups of otherwise similar countries. The paper concludes that, even though war has devastating effects and its aftermath can be immensely difficult, when the end of war marks the beginning of lasting peace, recovery and improvement are indeed achieved. |
| Keywords: | Civil War |
| JEL: | O10 O57 |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1043&r=afr |
| By: | Eid, Helmy M.; El-Marsafawy, Samia M.; Ouda, Samiha A. |
| Abstract: | This study employed the Ricardian approach to measure the economic impacts of climate change on farm net revenue in Egypt. Farm net revenue were regressed against climate, soil, socioeconomic and hydrological variables to determine which factors influence the variability of farm net revenues. 900 households from 20 governorates were interviewed. The standard Ricardian model was applied, in addition to three other models, each representing an adaptation option that could be used to reduce the harmful effects of temperature stress. A further adaptation strategy was tested: raising livestock on the farm to cope with the harmful effects of climate change. Besides this, the effects of two climate change scenarios (using MAGICC/SCENGEN and GCMs-General Circulation Models) were considered. The results from the two climate change scenarios showed that high temperatures will constrain agricultural production in Egypt. Irrigation and technology are therefore the recommended adaptation options. However, warming may also affect water resources and that would pose another problem for agricultural production. A policy should be developed to cope with the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture. It should focus on three areas: crop management, water management, and land management. The favored option for adapting to increased temperatures is irrigation. Some farmers adjust their crop sowing dates to avoid the expected high temperatures. To adjust to shortages in rainfall, farmers use crop varieties with high water use efficiency and early maturing varieties. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change,Environmental Economics & Policies,Crops & Crop Management Systems,Rural Development Knowledge & Information Systems,Water Supply a nd Sanitation Governance and Institutions |
| Date: | 2007–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4293&r=afr |
| By: | Jain, Suman |
| Abstract: | This report assesses the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Zambia, using the Ricardian method. A multiple linear regression model with net revenue per hectare as response variable has been fitted with climate, hydrological, soil, and socioeconomic variables as explanatory variables. There is one main cropping season in Zambia, lasting from November to April. Crop production in this period depends solely on rains. Considering crop progression in three stages-germination, growing, and maturing, which requi re different amounts of water and temperature-the climate variables included in the model are long-term averages of the temperature and wetness index for the periods November to December, January to February, and March to April. Assuming a nonlinear relationship of farm revenue with the climate variables, quadratic terms for climate variables were also included in the model. The results indicate that most socioeconomic variables are not significant, whereas some climate variables and the corresponding quadratic variables are significant in the model. Further findings are that an increase in the November-December mean temperature and a decrease in the January-February mean rainfall have negative impacts on net farm revenue, whereas an increase in the January-February mean temperature and mean annual runoff has a positive impact. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change,Crops & Crop Management Systems,Global Environment Facility,Common Property Resource Development,Economic Theory & Research |
| Date: | 2007–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4291&r=afr |
| By: | Paul Glewwe; Michael Kremer; Sylvie Moulin |
| Abstract: | A randomized evaluation suggests that a program which provided official textbooks to randomly selected rural Kenyan primary schools did not increase test scores for the average student. In contrast, the previous literature suggests that textbook provision has a large impact on test scores. Disaggregating the results by students? initial academic achievement suggests a potential explanation for the lack of an overall impact. Textbooks increased scores for students with high initial academic achievement and increased the probability that the students who had made it to the selective final year of primary school would go on to secondary school. However, students with weaker academic backgrounds did not benefit from the textbooks. Many pupils could not read the textbooks, which are written in English, most students? third language. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that the Kenyan education system and curricular materials are oriented to the academically strongest students rather than to typical students. More generally, many students may be left behind in societies that combine 1) a centralized, unified education system; 2) the heterogeneity in student preparation associated with rapid expansion of education; and 3) disproportionate elite power. |
| JEL: | C93 I20 O15 P16 |
| Date: | 2007–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13300&r=afr |
| By: | Ebeke, Christian Hubert |
| Abstract: | Les unions monétaires contemporaines sont caractérisées par des arrangements institutionnels qui confient la politique monétaire à une entité supranationale tandis que les politiques budgétaires sont encadrées par des normes imposées sur le déficit budgétaire. Les limites imposées aux déficits publics sont généralement justifiées par l’idée que les déficits publics réduisent l’épargne nationale, ce qui finalement réduit l’investissement intérieur et la croissance économique. Cependant, cette idée que l’épargne domestique doit nécessairement s’accroître pour que l’investissement augmente ne saurait être prise pour argent comptant. Par ailleurs, il est possible qu’au sein de l’union, les pays révèlent des causalités épargne-investissement différentes, ce qui est susceptible d’entacher considérablement la crédibilité et l’efficacité des règles budgétaires de prohibition systématique des déficits publics comme moyen de revitaliser l’investissement. Cette étude pose le problème de la causalité épargne-investissement domestiques dans la zone CEMAC. Elle a été déterminée dans chaque pays à partir d’une méthodologie axée sur les analyses de cointégration débouchant sur des représentations vectorielles à correction d’erreur. L’existence d’une hétérogénéité dans la causalité épargne-investissement en zone CEMAC conduit alors à réfléchir sur un nouveau modèle de coordination budgétaire intégrant cette hétérogénéité, notamment, l’adoption d’une nouvelle norme budgétaire plus souple basée sur un solde structurel hors investissements publics. |
| Keywords: | union monétaire; causalité épargne-investissement; hétérogénéité; coordination budgétaire. |
| JEL: | E61 E62 E21 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:4376&r=afr |
| By: | Harabi, Najib |
| Abstract: | Knowledge has always been at the heart of economic growth and development. It is disseminated chiefly through the different stages of education, R&D, the mass media and the translation industry. In Arab countries there has been a widespread impression that there is a low level of translation activities, which in turn has led to a low output of the translation industry in those countries. This paper addresses this issue; its overall objectives are (1) to describe the economic performance of the Arabic book translation industry in Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and Syria; (2) to understand empirically the economic performance of that industry, the focus here being on qualitatively analyzing the major determinants (positive and negative factors) affecting the growth process of that industry; and (3) to provide policy makers and business leaders in the Arab region with theoretically sound and evidence-based advice on the issues analyzed in the project. To provide an empirical base for answering those questions, both published data and fresh new data have been used. For the latter purpose, a questionnaire-based survey was conducted in the year 2005 among 190 experts, covering firm representatives and experts in industry and government. The Porter (Diamond) model has been used as a theoretical background. The empirical results were incorporated in five national case studies. This paper synthesizes the results of the national reports, giving a comparative account of the performance of the Arabic book translation industry in the five Arab countries. The overall results suggest that the Arabic book translation industry in these Arab countries has not yet achieved the level of development of other developing and developed countries. Underperformance of the Arabic book translation industry is attributable to (among other factors) severe coordination failures. This is a state of affairs in which the inability of the different agents (translators, book publishers, suppliers, customers, and supporting organizations, state, and so forth) to coordinate their behavior (choices) leads to suboptimal outcomes. Since the economic performance of the translation industry often involves complementary investments whose return depends on other investments being made by other agents, coordination is crucial. Obviously, neither market forces nor the state have undertaken this coordination activity sufficiently. The Arabic book translation industry seems to suffer from both market failure and government failure. In light of these results the Arabic book translation industry offers great economic potential that should be mobilized systematically in the future. This paper discusses how this can be achieved, based on a well-designed and implemented process of upgrading and innovation in companies, industries, and clusters related to translation activities. Public policy, properly understood and adequately implemented, can play an important role in this process. To overcome, or at least to mitigate, some of the major coordination failures in the Arabic translation industry, it is necessary to select an existing pan-Arab nongovernmental organization (NGO) or to create a new one, whose mission would include two major groups of activities: The first action would involve the coordination of activities on the supply side of the Arabic translation industry. This group of activities would encompass the following: 1. Improving the documentation of Arabic translation needs. This can be achieved by creating a regional Internet-based database that would constitute an information base on what has been translated, what is being translated, and what will be translated from foreign languages into Arabic. 2. Designing and implementing translation support programs (including providing financial means) on a sustainable basis. This would create and maintain a critical mass of translators and publishing companies. 3. Promoting translation quality assessment programs. This would mitigate the widely known problem of poor quality translation. 4. Designing and implementing training programs for translators and publishing companies involved in the translation business. This would increase the number of translators and improve the quality of translation activities. 5. Promoting networks among writers, translators, and publishers that facilitate contacts and create opportunities for new translation projects. Such additional communication channels would spur new project development. All these measures are intended to strengthen the supply side of the translation industry in Arab countries. The second action would involve the coordination of activities on the demand side of the Arabic translation industry. The suggested NGO should support readership surveys and promote reading programs. This can be done in collaboration with radio and television stations, print media, schools and universities, and so forth. These measures would help to identify the real needs of the reading public and enhance the culture of reading, especially among young people. |
| Keywords: | Arabic Book market; economics of translation; transaltion industry; Arab world; Egypt; Morocco; Saudi-Arabia; Lebanon; Syria |
| JEL: | Z11 L69 |
| Date: | 2007–02–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:4385&r=afr |