nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2007‒03‒17
twenty-two papers chosen by
Suzanne McCoskey
Foreign Service Institute, US Department of State

  1. Foreign Aid, Resources and Export Diversification in Africa: A New Test of Existing Theories By Osakwe, Patrick N.
  2. Crisis Region Western Africa: The cradle of African migration to Europe By Kohnert, Dirk
  3. Boda Bodas Rule: Non-agricultural Activities and Their Inequality Implications in Western Kenya By Jann Lay; George Michuki M'Mukaria; Toman Omar Mahmoud
  4. Do Visas Kill? Health Effects of African Health Professional Emigration By Michael Clemens
  5. The Growth Effects of Openness to Trade and the Role of Institutions: New Evidence from African Countries By Léonce Ndikumana; Mina Baliamoune-Lutz
  6. Microeconomics of Knowledge: African Case By Manuel, Eduardo
  7. Specification of investment functions in Sub-Saharan Africa By Bayraktar, Nihal; Fofack, Hippolyte
  8. The Economic Human Rights and The Right to Development in Egypt By ALASRAG, HUSSIEN
  9. On the Institutional Legacy of Mercantilist and Imperialist Colonialism By Olsson, Ola
  10. Radical Realignments: The Collapse of the Alliance between White Farmers and the State in Zimbabwe 1995-2000 By Angus Selby (QEH)
  11. The Effects of External Debt Management on Sustainable Economic Growth and Development: Lessons from Nigeria By Adepoju, Adenike Adebusola; Salau, Adekunle Sheu; Obayelu, Abiodun Elijah
  12. From Uneven Ground: The Undermining of the Alliance Between Commercial Farmers and the State in Zimbabwe 1990 – 1996 By Angus Selby (QEH)
  13. La non-planification des transports collectifs urbains et ses conséquences en termes d'usages : Les cas de Niamey(Niger) et de Puebla (Mexique) By Emmanuel Ravalet; Enrique Bueno-Cevada
  14. Losing the Plot: The Strategic Dismantling of White Farming in Zimbabwe 2000-2005 By Angus Selby (QEH)
  15. From 'OPEN SEASON' to ROYAL GAME': The Strategic Repositioning of Commercial Farmers across the Independence Transition in Zimbabwe By Angus Selby (QEH)
  16. Coût et financement de l'éducation primaire en Afrique Subsaharienne By Jean Bourdon
  17. Comparative Analysis of the Relationship Between Poverty and Underground economy in the Highly developed, Transition and Developing Countries By Obayelu, Abiodun, Elijah; Uffort, Larry
  18. Social Capital vs Institutions in the Growth Process By Ahlerup, Pelle; Olsson, Ola; Yanagizawa, David
  19. Locational Drivers of FDI in MENA Countries: A Spatial Attempt By Hisarciklilar, Mehtap; Kayam, Saime Suna; Kayalica, Ozgur
  20. Towards smaller family size in Egypt, Morocco and Turkey: overall change over time or socio-economic compositional effect? By Agata V. D´Addato; Daniele Vignoli; Sutay Yavuz
  21. Mobilité quotidienne et attractivité relative des territoires urbains à Niamey (Niger) et Puebla (Mexique) By Emmanuel Ravalet
  22. THE VALUE OF THE HIGH ASWAN DAM TO THE EGYPTIAN ECONOMY By Kenneth M. Strzepek; Gary W. Yohe; Richard S.J. Tol; Mark Rosegrant

  1. By: Osakwe, Patrick N.
    Abstract: Recent theoretical literature suggests that aid, geography, and resource endowments affect diversification of exports in Africa. This paper examines the validity of these popular views using a System-GMM methodology and panel data for African countries. The evidence suggests that aid, the quality of infrastructure, and resource endowments are robust determinants of diversification in Africa. It also suggests that there is no systematic relationship between geography and diversification. Furthermore, there is some evidence that institutional factors are important although it is not robust. Finally, the paper offers recommendations on how to promote export diversification in the region.
    Keywords: Exports; Aid; Diversification; Africa; Endowments
    JEL: O14 F13 F35
    Date: 2007–03
  2. By: Kohnert, Dirk
    Abstract: In the last decades the number of refugees from conflict regions in Africa increased dramatically. West Africa is the cradle of migration from Sub-Saharan Africa to Europe, were most African migrants with overseas destinations live. The European Union shares dual responsibility for the continuing migration pressure: First, because they fostered over decades corrupt and autocratic regimes with dire disregard to principles of ‘good governance’. The aftermath of these regimes is still to be felt today, and constitutes one of the underlying factors for politically motivated migration. Secondly, the EU contributed to Africa’s growing economic misery, due to the damaging effects of European selfish external trade policy. Nevertheless, the prevailing perspective of the EU concerning African immigration remains to be focused on security, the foreclosure of its external borders and prevention. Current EU programs to combat African migration by development orientated instead of adequate immigration policies is bound to fail, according to available evidence and literature. The drain of human capital from Africa is most pronounced in the employment sector for highly qualified personnel. Another remarkable trend is the ‘feminization’ of the brain drain in recent years, caused by the growing number of highly skilled African women looking for employment abroad. However, migration is not necessarily a zero-sum game. There are also positive – although often neglected - economic and socio-cultural effects of the brain drain. Remittances of African migrants contribute considerably not just to the wellbeing of their extended families at home, but to poverty reduction and development on a national level in general. They constitute the second largest source of external private finance, besides for-eign direct investment. In addition, a counteracting ‘brain gain’, i.e. new value systems, po-litical and spiritual orientations, acquired by migrants in Europe, results in a transfer of knowledge and of innovations.
    Keywords: migration; West Africa; Europe; remittances; brain-drain; foreign trade policy; security; circular migration;
    JEL: F22 N44 O55 F53 R23 O15 N37 O52 F42 N17 F35 O2
    Date: 2007–03–14
  3. By: Jann Lay; George Michuki M'Mukaria; Toman Omar Mahmoud
    Abstract: Engagement in non-agricultural activities in rural areas can be classified into survival-led or opportunity-led. Survival-led diversification would decrease inequality by increasing the incomes of poorer households and thus reduce poverty. By contrast, opportunity-led diversification would increase inequality and have a minor effect on poverty, as it tends to be confined to non-poor households. Using data from Western Kenya, we confirm the existence of the differently motivated diversification strategies. Yet, the poverty and inequality implications differ somewhat from our expectations. Our findings indicate that in addition to asset constraints, rural households also face limited or relatively risky high-return opportunities outside agriculture.
    Keywords: Income diversification, non-agricultural activities, inequality, poverty, sub-Saharan Africa, Kenya
    JEL: Q12 O17 I31
    Date: 2007–03
  4. By: Michael Clemens
    Abstract: The emigration of highly skilled workers can in theory lower social welfare in the migrant-sending country. If such workers produce a good whose consumption conveys a positive externality—such as nurses and doctors in a very poor country—the loss can be greater, and welfare can even decline globally. Policies to impede emigration thus have the potential to raise sending-country and global welfare. This study uses a new database of health worker emigration from Africa to test whether exogenous decreases in emigration raise the number of domestic health professionals, increase the mass availability of basic primary care, or improve a range of public health outcomes. It identifies the effect through two separate natural quasi-experiments arising from the colonial division of the African continent. These produce exogenous changes in emigration comparable to those that would result from different immigration policies in principal receiving countries. The results suggest that Africa's generally low staffing levels and poor public health conditions are the result of factors entirely unrelated to international movements of health professionals. A simple model proposes that such results would be explained by segmentation of health workforce labor markets in the sending countries. The results further suggest that emigration has caused a greater production of health workers in Africa.
    Keywords: emigration, health professionals, visas, africa, highly skilled workers, public health
    JEL: F22 I18 O15
  5. By: Léonce Ndikumana (University of Massachusetts, Amherst, and UNECA, Addis Ababa); Mina Baliamoune-Lutz (University of North Florida and IED/Boston University)
    Abstract: In this paper, we explore the argument that one of the causes for the limited growth effects of trade openness in Africa may be the weakness of institutions. We also control for several major factors and, in particular, for export diversification, using a newly developed dataset on Africa. Results from Arellano-Bond GMM estimations on panel data from African countries show that institutions play an important role in enhancing the growth effects of trade. Moreover, we find that the joint effect of institutions and trade has a U-shape, suggesting that as openness to trade reaches high levels, institutions play a critical role in harnessing the trade-led engine of growth. The results from this paper are informative about the missing link between trade liberalization and growth in the case of African countries. JEL Categories:
    Date: 2007–03
  6. By: Manuel, Eduardo
    Abstract: Since the process of globalization era, we can always lived in economics of knowledge. The cicle of economics founded on knowledge are compost by three components: the investment in knowledge; the production and the diffusion of information technology and communication (ITC) and the institutional mechanisms that favor the access to knowledge (Foray, 2004). By fact the economics are divided in Micro and Macroeconomics, this work has as objective to approach theme “Microeconomics of Knowledge” based on African case. We concluded that, in general analysis, South Africa and Tunisia are the countries of the selected with better performance in microeconomics of knowledge, and Angola, Chad and Ethiopia are poor countries in this area of knowledge. High rates of adult alphabetization can stimulate companies and firms to employ skilled personal according to their necessities and this personal can and it is ready to work with advanced technology and to effect R&D for development of their activities.
    Keywords: Economic of Knowledge; Macroeconomics; Microeconomics; Microeconomics of Knowledge
    JEL: M19 D89 O12 L29 O32 D29
    Date: 2006–05–15
  7. By: Bayraktar, Nihal; Fofack, Hippolyte
    Abstract: It is a well-known fact that one of the most important determinants of growth is private investment. But in the developing country context of widespread poverty, the effects of initial conditions on the process of capital accumulation have seldom been investigated. This paper highlights heterogeneity in the process of capital accumulation across different countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, and derives a formal specification of investment functions in the primary, industry, and service sectors in the region using a variation of the combined Tobin ' s Q Theory and the neoclassical models of investment. The results highlight a more rapid accumulation of capital in the relatively high income subpanel and a widening public-private capital accumulation gap. A functional specification points to the significance of aggregate profitability shocks, the financing cost of investment, and public capital stock in estimating the growth rate of private capital accumulation. These results are supported empirically, as highlighted by the relatively small absolute deviation between actual and predicted value distributions.
    Keywords: Investment and Investment Climate,Economic Theory & Research,Trade and Regional Integration,Non Bank Financial Institutions,Economic Growth
    Date: 2007–03–01
    Abstract: A summary of this paper was presented at the conference on "The Right To Development :20 Year After ,What Next", Sponsored by The National Council For Human Rights, Egypt, December 2006. The purpose of this paper is to review and analysis The Economic Human Rights and The Right to Development in Egypt.. Economic Human Rights are considered one of the basic human rights. In spite of the reforms which have been taken to increase enjoying Economic Human Rights in Egypt, It still compare poorly with other developing countries. Nearly 43.9% of the Egypt’s population lives on less than $2a day, and 16.7% barely survive on less than $1 a day. The main findings of this paper is that Improving the investment climate ,Developing SMES in Egypt, equity and Social Security are essential to enjoying economic human rights and to provide jobs and opportunities for young people and to build a more inclusive, balanced, and peaceful community .
    Keywords: human rights; economic human rights; climateinvestment climate ; Developing SMES in Egypt; equity ; Social Security
    JEL: I0 I00 I1
    Date: 2006–12–10
  9. By: Olsson, Ola (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)
    Abstract: The article features a temporal approach to modelling the social impact of Western colonialism. We collect a data set for all former colonies and dependencies that are regarded as countries today (143 observations). Our data, as well as existing theory, suggest that the very heterogeneous era of colonization might be divided into an early ’mercantilist’ wave and a much later ’imperialist’ wave with quite different characteristics. We demonstrate that a commonly used determinant of institutional quality - colonial settler mortality - had a much weaker effect on institutional outcomes during the imperialist scramble for Africa. When we broaden the analysis, it is shown that the positive effect of colonial duration on democracy is strongest among countries colonized during the imperialist era. Controlling for colonial duration, our results further indicate that a long history of statehood is bad for democracy while there is almost no effect of the national identity of the colonizer. <p>
    Keywords: colonialism; democracy; institutions; development; settler mortality
    JEL: N40 N50 P33
    Date: 2007–03–09
  10. By: Angus Selby (QEH)
    Abstract: This paper explores the collapse of the alliance between commercial farmers and the state in Zimbabwe. It argues that relations had deteriorated irrevocably by the late 1990s, precluding opportunities for compromise, and concludes that farmer opposition to the constitutional referendum in 2000 was symptomatic of deteriorating relations, rather than the catalyst. These assertions are based on interpretation of several key interacting issues: the reconstitution and politicisation of land demand within Zimbabwe's deteriorating socio-economic climate; the internal reconfiguration of the ruling party under pressure from black empowerment interests and war veterans,; the radicalisation of land policy through ZANU PF's aggressive centralisation of the land issue within the political and economic crises; and finally, a limited awareness of these issues by commercial farmers, donors and the international community, and consequently poor counter-strategising by these groups.
  11. By: Adepoju, Adenike Adebusola; Salau, Adekunle Sheu; Obayelu, Abiodun Elijah
    Abstract: This paper reviewed the roles of debt management practices on sustainable economic growth and development with particular emphasis on Nigeria. Information was generated extensively from literature, the Nigeria Central Bank and National Bureau of Statistic reports. The analyses of the data collected with descriptive statistics shows that, availability of access to external finance strongly influences the economic development process of any nation. Debt is an important resources needed to support sustainable economic growth. But a huge external debt without servicing as it is the case for Nigeria before year 2000 constituted a major impediment to the revitalization of her shattered economy as well as the alleviation of debilitating poverty. The much needed inflow of foreign resources for investment stimulation, growth and employment were hampered. Without credit cover, Nigerian importers were required to provide 100 percent cash covers for all orders and this therefore placed them to a competitive disadvantage compared to their counterparts elsewhere. Failure of any owing country to service her debt obligation results in repudiation risk preventing such to obtain new loans since little or no confidence will be placed on the ability to repay. It will also undermine the effort to obtain substantive debt relief over the medium term with a tremendous increase in interest, arrears and other penalties. This will subsequently depress the economy both in the long and short runs. Best arrangement in debt payment must be put in place from time to time in response to changes in the economy and the polity. Debt can only be productive if well managed so as to make the rate of return higher than the cost of debt servicing.
    Keywords: Debt Management; Sustainability; Economic Growth; Economic Development; and Nigeria
    JEL: E6 E62
    Date: 2007–03–01
  12. By: Angus Selby (QEH)
    Abstract: This paper explores the deterioration of the strategic alliance between commercial farmers and the state in Zimbabwe after 1990. Expiry of the Lancaster House constitution, the implementation of a structural adjustment program and the formal emergence of a black 'empowerment' lobby combined with severe drought had significantly altered the nature of Zimbabwe's land debate by the mid 1990s. The deadlock in land redistribution during this period is often vaguely attributed to a combination of state apathy and white farmer resistance, but interest group dynamics were far more complex both internally and externally. This comprehensive analysis of the relative policies, positions and internal reconfigurations of key stakeholders explains the polarisation of the land debate, the collapse of the alliance and the slowdown in land transfers.
  13. By: Emmanuel Ravalet (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - [CNRS : UMR5593] - [Université Lumière - Lyon II] - [Ecole Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'Etat], INRS-UCS - Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Urbanisation, Culture et Sociétés - [Université du Québec]); Enrique Bueno-Cevada (INRS-UCS - Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Urbanisation, Culture et Sociétés - [Université du Québec])
    Abstract: En proie à des taux de croissance urbaine importants, la plupart des grandes villes des pays du Sud continuent à s'accroître (spatialement et en nombre d'habitants). Les conséquences sociales sont souvent graves et les pouvoirs locaux manquent de temps et de moyens pour penser et aménager les espaces urbains, en perpétuelle mutation. Lorsque les distances à effectuer s'accroissent, l'accessibilité des populations est questionnée, surtout dans des contextes où l'équipement individuel est relativement faible. <br /><br />Nous considèrerons dans cette étude le mode de transport comme une interface entre le citadin et l'espace urbain. Il est donc intéressant d'évoquer le rapport différent entretenu par chacun des modes de transport avec la ville. G. Amar développe le concept d'« adhérence urbaine des déplacements », supposant une interaction spécifique avec les lieux et les activités de la ville. La marche à pied renvoie à des déplacements lents et des échanges divers avec l'environnement de l'individu. Quant à la voiture, elle sous-entend peu de contacts avec l'extérieur de l'habitacle et nécessite espace et fluidité. Dans des situations fortement contraintes (physiquement et économiquement), les transports collectifs permettent de parcourir d'assez grandes distances et coûtent peu cher. Les citadins n'y ont cependant pas tous accès. Malgré leur prix souvent assez bas, tous ne peuvent payer la course et les véhicules de transports collectifs (taxis, bus ou mini-bus dans notre étude) ne vont pas partout, privilégiant dans un souci permanent de rentabilisation de leur « entreprise » certaines lignes et certains espaces (selon la praticabilité des réseaux, l'éloignement du centre, le nombre de clients potentiels, etc...). Leur « adhérence urbaine » varie selon les zones de la ville considérées.<br /><br />Deux aires urbaines ont retenu notre attention : Niamey au Niger et Puebla au Mexique (respectivement 700 000 et 1 900 000 habitants ). Dans la capitale nigérienne, l'équipement motorisé est embryonnaire et la majorité des déplacements se font à pied. Les taxis collectifs y font office de T.C. et parcourent la ville à petits prix. La ville s'articule fortement autour du centre et de ses 3 marchés (grand marché, petit marché et marché Katako). Dans la métropole mexicaine, les transports collectifs occupent une place centrale dans la vie quotidienne des citadins. Comme dans la plupart des villes latino-américaines, les bus et les mini-bus quadrillent l'espace et représentent près de 40 % des déplacements quotidiens. Comme dans le cas de Niamey, le centre est très attractif et concentre une part importante des activités de la ville. Ces organisations urbaines fortement dépendantes du centre de l'agglomération posent évidemment de nombreuses questions pour les populations périphériques défavorisés, souvent mal ou pas équipés. Composés d'un grand nombre d'acteurs privés (individus ou entreprises), ces deux systèmes de transports collectifs ne sont pas planifiés à l'échelle de la métropole. En abordant la ville mexicaine (plus étendue et caractérisée par une part modale très forte des transports collectifs), nous affinons notre compréhension du cas niaméen en pointant ses spécificités, les tendances fortes (communes aux deux villes) et ses perspectives dans l'hypothèse d'une poursuite du « laisser-faire » dans la planification des transports collectifs. <br /><br />Les systèmes de transports collectifs des deux villes considérées supposent des fonctionnements spécifiques des espaces urbains les uns avec les autres, en l'occurrence très en faveur du centre-ville. En sélectionnant dans les deux villes quelques quartiers socialement et géographiquement contrastés, nous tenterons de faire le point sur les populations profitant ou non du système de transports collectifs. Nous verrons que les populations fortement contraintes les utilisent de manière très variable, et ce pour des raisons complexes liées à l'histoire des villes d'une part et aux caractéristiques socio-économiques et démographiques de leurs populations d'autre part.
    Keywords: Transport ; ville ; accessibilité ; mobilité ; Afrique ; Niamey ; Mexique ; Puebla
    Date: 2007–03–02
  14. By: Angus Selby (QEH)
    Abstract: This paper examines the dismantling of the white farming sector in Zimbabwe after 2000. It argues that although ZANU PF portrayed farm invasions as a demonstrable effort towards populist land reforms, the 'fast-track' strategy was primarily one of political survival, and that this is evident in the pattern of land invasions and land allocations. Farm invasions quickly evolved into a systematic and methodical purge of commercial farms, to undermine support for the MDC from farmers and farm workers. Local contexts and local politics shaped the nature of local invasions, but the overall program was centrally endorsed and centrally co-ordinated. The reallocation of farms and assets were strategically geared towards placating key groups and key individuals within ZANU PF's increasingly militarised patronage system. Finally, this paper explores the reactions, counter strategies and patterns of collapse within the white farming sector. It illustrates how the community and its institutions fragmented along established planes of historical division, re-emphasising the significance of differentiation among farmers, throughout their history.
  15. By: Angus Selby (QEH)
    Abstract: This paper explores the strategic repositioning of commercial farmers across the Independence transition, from a close proximity to the Rhodesian Front to an alliance with the Mugabe regime. It argues, contrary to most analyses, that commercial farmers were instrumental in leading white Rhodesia towards negotiations, compromise and settlement, and that this positioned them well to retain their privileged access to land and the decision making process after Independence. Whilst recognising that ZANU PF compromised significantly, it illustrates that incomplete reconciliation and ongoing distortions in access to resources kept the racial aspects of the new alliance unsteady.
  16. By: Jean Bourdon (IREDU - Institut de recherche sur l'éducation : Sociologie et Economie de l'Education - [CNRS : FRE5211] - [Université de Bourgogne])
    Abstract: L'auteur aborde la question du coût et du financement de l'éducation en s'inscrivant dans le cadre global des approches préconisées par la communauté internationale, notamment par la Banque mondiale, qui tendent de plus en plus à s'imposer. L'analyse, dans la logique de l'Education pour Tous (EPT), se place dans l'objectif d'une scolarisation de base universelle. Ainsi, la question du coût et du financement de l'éducation est abordée à travers un triple questionnement : Les écarts sur le financement de l'éducation sont-ils le reflet des inégalités d'accès ? Ces inégalités d'accès ne proviennent-elles pas d'une allocation contestable du financement éducatifs ; quelles peuvent être alors les inflexions envisageables dans les structures de financement ? Pour les pays les moins avancés, l'aide internationale a-t-elle mis comme condition, pour suppléer l'insuffisance locale de ressources, des changements structuraux liés à la question d'une école efficace ?
    Keywords: Enseignement primaire ; Afrique subsaharienne ; Coût de l'éducation ; Financement de l'éducation ; Inégalité
    Date: 2007–03–07
  17. By: Obayelu, Abiodun, Elijah; Uffort, Larry
    Abstract: Abstract This study was undertaken with the goal of analyzing the relationship between poverty rates and size of underground economy in the developed and developing countries and exploring whether there is a link between them. There are technical problems in linking them in that getting information from those who have undertaken underground activities are difficult. Secondary data were used to established hypothetical relationship and primary data for the empirical analysis. The results of the descriptive analysis revealed that underground economy and poverty have no geographical boundary. Although the incidence, and the size differs from one country to another. The incidences of poverty and shadow economy are larger in the poor (developing and transition) countries when compared with the highly developed countries. There is also a causal link between poverty and underground economy especially in the developing and transition countries with common factors such as high unemployment and corruption rates affecting both poverty and underground economy. High social security system and tax burden were found to account for the high rates of underground economies in the highly developed countries even with people’s awareness of its implications when caught. In developing countries like Nigeria, most people embark on unlicensed (and hence illegal) micro-enterprises / activities like production and sale of pure water, yoghurts, cutting down of economic trees, illegal running of private schools, drug trafficking, prostitution, black-market currency exchange, fake disclosure of actual business profit, in order to increase their levels of income by tax evasion or avoidance in the name of surviving. Government can reduce this menace to certain extent by engaging itself in sustainable poverty reduction activities, tax policy changes, embarking anti-corruption campaign and increase in job opportunities within the formal economy. Key words: Poverty, underground economy, developed, transition and developing countries
    Keywords: Poverty; underground economy; developed; transition and developing countries
    JEL: P51 P52
    Date: 2007–03–06
  18. By: Ahlerup, Pelle (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Olsson, Ola (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Yanagizawa, David (Stockholm University)
    Abstract: Is social capital always important for economic growth? A number of recent micro studies suggest that interpersonal trust and social capital will have its greatest impact on economic performance when court institutions are relatively weak. The conventional wisdom from macro studies, however, is that social capital is unconditionally good for growth. On the basis of the micro evidence, we outline an investment game between a producer and a lender in an incomplete-contracts setting. A key insight is that social capital will have the greatest e¤ect on the total surplus from the game at lower levels of institutional strength and that the effect of social capital vanishes when institutions are very strong. When we bring this prediction to an empirical cross-country growth regression, it is shown that the marginal effect of social capital (in the form of inter- personal trust) decreases with institutional strength. Our results imply that a one standard deviation rise in social capital in weakly institutionalized Nigeria should increase economic growth by 1.8 percentage points, whereas the same increase in social capital only increases growth by 0.3 percentage points in strongly institutionalized Canada. <p>
    Keywords: social capital; institutions; growth; investment
    JEL: O11
    Date: 2007–03–09
  19. By: Hisarciklilar, Mehtap; Kayam, Saime Suna; Kayalica, Ozgur
    Abstract: This study aims to analyze the locational drivers of FDI, with an emphasis on the role of market potential in MENA countries. Considering that the market does not necessarily comprise of the host economy but also trade opportunities in the region and in the rest of the world, this study distinguishes the country-specific, regional and trade-related market potential of the host MENA country in attracting FDI. It also examines the neighboring effects in locational choice. Using a panel of 18 countries covering the 1980-2001 time period, the model is estimated by Maximum Likelihood estimation method incorporating the possible spatial autocorrelation in the disturbances. The results imply that FDI in the MENA region is market oriented; as well as aiming at the domesic market in the host economy, it also utilises trade opportunities within the region.
    Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment; market potential; MENA region; spatial econometrics
    JEL: R12 F23 F21 C23
    Date: 2006–05
  20. By: Agata V. D´Addato (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Daniele Vignoli (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Sutay Yavuz (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: The whole region of the South and East Mediterranean exhibits a profound fertility transition with marked differences in the pace of fertility declines among the countries. The authors choose three representative countries: Egypt, Morocco and Turkey. Determinants of the propensity towards smaller family size are investigated as scrutinizing the development in the pattern of third births, which represents the critical step in the transitional process for these countries. The authors are particularly interested in verifying whether the decline of higher-order births is significantly driven by an overall societal change over time or by compositional change over different socio-economic segments of the female population. Evidence is found that overall societal changes have mainly driven the decline in large family size, though, to a much lesser extent, compositional changes are important too.
    Keywords: Egypt, Morocco, Turkey, childbearing, family size, fertility decline
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2007–03
  21. By: Emmanuel Ravalet (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - [CNRS : UMR5593] - [Université Lumière - Lyon II] - [Ecole Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'Etat], INRS-UCS - Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique - Urbanisation, Culture et Société - [Université du Québec])
    Abstract: Grâce aux activités qui s'y déroulent, certains territoires attirent des citadins de plusieurs quartiers de l'agglomération. Ces lieux, autour desquels la ville s'articule, ne sont pas nécessairement utilisés par les mêmes citadins, pour les mêmes raisons, de la même manière et aux mêmes moments. Nous considèrerons donc dans cette étude l'attractivité relative des territoires urbains, relative car dépendante des individus considérés.
    Keywords: mobilité ; accessibilité ; attractivité ; urbain ; Niamey ; Puebla
    Date: 2007–03–02
  22. By: Kenneth M. Strzepek; Gary W. Yohe; Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin); Mark Rosegrant
    Abstract: The High Aswan Dam converted a variable and uncertain flow of river water into a predictable and controllable flow. We use a computable general equilibrium model of the Egyptian economy to estimate the economic impact of the High Aswan Dam. We compare the 1997 economy as it was to the 1997 economy as it would have been for 72 historical, pre-dam water flows. The steady water flow increased transport productivity, while the seasonal shift in water supply allowed for a shift towards more valuable summer crops. These static effects are worth LE 4.9 billion. Investments in transport and agriculture increased as a consequence. Assuming that Egypt is a small open economy, this is worth another LE 1.1 billion. The risk premium on the reduced variability is estimated to be LE 1.1 billion for a modest risk aversion, and perhaps LE 4.4 billion for a high risk aversion. The total gain of LE 7.1 billion equals 2.7% of GDP.
    Keywords: Egypt, High Aswan Dam, computable general equilibrium model, risk premium, water supply
    JEL: C68 O13 Q25
    Date: 2006–06

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