nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2007‒02‒17
29 papers chosen by
Suzanne McCoskey
Foreign Service Institute, US Department of State

  1. Privatising Basic Utilities in Sub-Saharan Africa: The MDG Impact By Kate Bayliss; Terry McKinley
  2. Why Are There So Few Black-Owned Firms in Africa? Preliminary Results from Enterprise Survey Data By Vijaya Ramachandran; Manju Kedia Shah
  3. CONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFERS IN AFRICAN COUNTRIES By Nanak Kakwani; Fabio Veras Soares; Hyun H. Son
  4. Raising the Productivity of Public Investments in Zambia’s Agricultural Sector. By Jones Govereh; J.J. Shawa; E. Malawo; T.S. Jayne
  5. A Multilevel Approach to Explain Child Mortality and Undernutrition in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa By Kenneth Harttgen; Mark Misselhorn
  7. Educational(work)performance in african countries:problems policies and prospects By Nwaobi, Godwin
  9. Impacts of Biomass and Petroleum Energy Futures in Africa By Daniel M. Kammen; Majid Ezzati; Robert Bailis
  10. Does Education Matter in Patience Formation? Evidence from Ugandan Villages By Michal Bauer; Julie Chytilová
  12. Poverty, Undernutrition, and Child Mortality: Some Inter-Regional Puzzles and their Implications for Research and Policy By Stephan Klasen
  13. Changes in Rural Household Income Patterns in Mozambique, 1996-2002, and Implications for Agriculture’s Contribution to Poverty Reduction. By Duncan Boughton; David Mather; David Tschirley; Tom Walker; Benedito Cunguara; Ellen Payongayong
  14. AN EMPLOYMENT-TARGETED ECONOMIC PROGRAM FOR SOUTH AFRICA By Robert Pollin; Gerald Epstein; James Heintz; Leonce Ndikumana
  15. Assessment of the Farm Level Agronomic and Financial Benefits of the Magoye Ripper in Maize and Cotton Production in Southern and Eastern Provinces By Stephen Kabwe; Cynthia Donovan; David Samazaka
  16. Impact des financements internationaux sur les inégalités des pays en développement By Lisa Chauvet; Sandrine Mesplé-Somps
  17. Exposure to pesticides, ill-health and averting behaviour: Costs and determining the relationships By Clevo Wilson
  19. Are poor neighbourhoods opposed to democracy? The case of Antananarivo, Madagascar By François Roubaud; Jean-Michel Wachsberger
  20. Economie politique d’un changement politique : éléments d’analyse à propos de l’expérience de la République de Djibouti By Mohamed Abdillahi Bahdon
  21. The Macroeconomic Debate On Scaling up HIV/AIDS Financing By Terry McKinley; Degol Hailu
  24. The impact of sea level rise on developing countries : a comparative analysis By Dasgupta, Susmita; Laplante, Benoit; Meisner, Craig; Wheeler, David; Jianping Yan
  26. Helping Hand ? Aid to Failing States By Lisa Chauvet; Paul Collier
  28. Advance Market Commitments for Vaccines Working Paper and Spread Sheet By Ruth Levine; Ernst R. Berndt; Rachel Glennerster; Michael R. Kremer; Jean Lee; Georg Weizsacker; Heidi Williams
  29. Artificial States By William Easterly; Alberto Alesina; Janina Matuszeski

  1. By: Kate Bayliss; Terry McKinley (International Poverty Centre)
    Keywords: Poverty, ECONOMIC, Macroeconomic, Privatising,Sub-Saharan Africa, MDG
    JEL: B41 D11 D12 E31 I32 O54
    Date: 2007–01
  2. By: Vijaya Ramachandran; Manju Kedia Shah
    Abstract: Much of the growth in Sub-Saharan Africa in the past decade has come from extractive industries, rather than from private, entrepreneurial activity. Furthermore, non-extractive activity in the private sector is often dominated by firms owned by ethnic minorities. This paper analyzes the characteristics of the formal private sector in five countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with a particular emphasis on Black African-owned (indigenous) firms. We find that indigenous firms start smaller and grow more slowly; however their rate of growth is positively influenced by whether the owner-entrepreneur has a university degree. We do not find overwhelming evidence that credit is the binding constraint but we do find that indigenous firms get less access to trade credit than firms owned by minority entrepreneurs. Finally, we discuss policy solutions that might enable a larger number of indigenous entrepreneurs to enter and survive in a vibrant, multi-ethnic private sector.
    Keywords: Sub Saharan Africa, extractive industries, formal private sector, indigenous entrepreneurs, credit
    JEL: O1 M20
  3. By: Nanak Kakwani (International Poverty Centre); Fabio Veras Soares (International Poverty Centre); Hyun H. Son (International Poverty Centre)
    Abstract: Poverty affects a large proportion of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa and, far from decreasing, the proportion and numbers of poor people in Sub-Saharan Africa have actually increased over the last ten years. Policies to reduce poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and elsewhere are defying conventional wisdom. Single-focus solutions have proved ineffective. There is an urgent need to learn from both successful and failed experiences that have been tried elsewhere. This study provides an ex-ante assessment of the implementation of a cash transfer programme conditional on school attendance in 15 Sub-Saharan African countries. Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programmes have been tried in other regions, notably Latin America, with relative success. The two key characteristics of CCT programmes are that they simultaneously act upon the short and long term dimensions of poverty. Therefore we investigate here both the impact of a cash transfer on current poverty and the impact of conditioning the transfer upon school attendance.
    Keywords: Conditional Cash Transfers, Poverty, Africa, Developing Countries
    JEL: F16 J31
    Date: 2005–11
  4. By: Jones Govereh (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); J.J. Shawa; E. Malawo; T.S. Jayne
    Abstract: Agriculture provides the main support for Zambia’s rural economy, and because of this, growth in the agricultural sector is the clearest avenue through which poverty reduction can be achieved in Zambia. Yet despite widespread recognition of the strong connection between agricultural development and poverty reduction, there is continuing under-provision of public goods investments for over a decade. Zambia’s primary policy objective of achieving accelerated growth and competitiveness in the agricultural sector cannot be achieved unless adequate public resources are committed towards catalyzing the desired growth. Strong evidence from southern Africa as well as throughout the world indicates that long–term public investment in research and development, extension services, rural infrastructure, and food safety and quality systems have high pay-offs and are among the most important drivers of agricultural growth and competitiveness. Agricultural-led development has been identified by African Heads of State and Governments as key to restoration of food security and rural development on our continent. Under the African Union’s Comprehensive Africa Agricultural Development Program (CAADP) framework, Zambia, like many other members of the union, has targeted to achieve a minimum of 6% annual agricultural growth by making available 10% of the national budget towards the sector. In Zambia, it is important not only to increase the resource allocation to the sector in accordance with the CAADP target of 10%, but to allocate these resources productively so as to make the maximum contribution to sustainable growth within the shortest possible time. This paper examines trends in Zambia’s public budgeting for agriculture and the composition of the budget. This report does not cover tax expenditures by the government, private sector expenditures, and support from donors. Support from development partners channeled through government programs is included in the report. The report covers approved budget allocations and compares approved expenditures with actual expenditures.
    Keywords: food security, food policy, Zambia, public investment
    JEL: Q18
    Date: 2006
  5. By: Kenneth Harttgen (Universität Göttingen, Germany); Mark Misselhorn (Universität Göttingen, Germany)
    Abstract: While undernutrition among children is very pervasive both in Sub- Saharan Africa and South Asia, child mortality is rather low in South Asia. In contrast to that Sub-Saharan African countries suer by far the worst from high rates of child mortality. This dierent pattern of child mortality and undernutrition in both regions is well known, but approaches using aggregated macro data have not been able to explain it appropriately. In this paper we analyze the determinants of child mortality as well as child undernutrition based on DHS data sets for a sample of ve developing countries in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. We investigate the eects of individual, household and cluster socioeconomic characteristics using a multilevel model approach and examine their respective inuences on both phenomena. We nd that the determinants of child mortality and undernutrition dier signi cantly from each other. Access to health infrastructure is more important for child mortality, whereas the individual characteristics like wealth and educational and nutritional characteristics of mothers play a larger role for anthropometric shortfalls. Although very similar patterns in the determinants of each phenomenon are discernable between countries, there are large dierences in the magnitude of the coecients. Besides regressions using a combined data set of all six countries show, that there are still signicant dierences between the two regions although taking account of a large set of covariates.
    Keywords: Child mortality, child undernutrition, multilevel modelling
    JEL: C40 I12 I31 I32 O57
    Date: 2006–10–19
  6. By: Nanak Kakwani (International Poverty Centre); Hyun H. Son (International Poverty Centre)
    Abstract: This paper proposes a methodology to estimate required growth rates, investment rates, and per capita foreign aid in US dollars in order to achieve the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of halving poverty between 1990 and 2015. It provides a methodology which gives a linkage between costs of MDG, growth, poverty, and inequality. In this study, the methodology is applied only to the head-count poverty measure but is applicable to other poverty measures. This study takes into account the distributional aspect to derive the estimates of the projected growth and investment rates required for the next 10 years from 2005 to reach the MDG poverty reduction target. This has been done through simulating different growth scenarios: anti-poor, distribution neutral, and pro-poor. The proposed methodology is applied to the 15 Sub-Saharan African countries.
    Keywords: Growth, Poverty, Inequality, Millennium Development Goals, Foreign aid, Investment, Sub-Saharan Africa
    JEL: I3 D31 H2 H3
    Date: 2006–05
  7. By: Nwaobi, Godwin
    Abstract: Without education, development will not occur, only an educated people can command the skills necessary for sustainable economic growth and for a better quality of life. Recognizing this fact, African governments have placed heavy emphasis on expanding educational opportunities from primary school through university to the past four decades. More over, international organization have put so much emphasis on supporting educational expansion and improvement in Africa. However, education in Africa is in crisis today (and most especially for African universities). Enrollments rise as capacities for government support decline; talented staff are abandoning the campuses; libraries are out dated; research output are dropping, students are protesting overcrowded and inhospitable conditions; staffs are equally protesting poor working conditions (with continues strikes); university graduates are seriously underemployed or unemployed; and general educational quality is deteriorating. The need for action is urgent and thus effective educational policy making is imperative for the eradication of the identified problems.
    Keywords: education; africa; university; primary; secondary; tertiary; nonformaleducation; gender; policies; policy reforms; female education; labour force; work performance; early childhood; formal education; lifelong learning; examinations
    JEL: I21 I22 I23 I20
    Date: 2007–01–30
  8. By: Nanak Kakwani (International Poverty Centre); Kalanidhi Subbarao (The World Bank)
    Abstract: In many low income African countries, three factors are placing an undue burden on the elderly. First, the burden on the elderly has enormously increased with the increase in mortality of prime age adults due to HIV AIDS pandemic and regional conflicts. Second, the traditional safety net of the extended family has become ineffective and unreliable for the elderly. Third, in a few countries, the elderly are called upon to shoulder the responsibility of the family as they became the principal breadwinners and caregivers for young children. While a number of studies have examined the welfare consequences of these developments on children, few studies have systematically analyzed the poverty situation among the elderly (relative to other groups) in low income countries Africa, and the role of social pensions. This study aims to fill this gap.
    Keywords: Ageing, Poverty, Social Pensions, Developing Countries, Africa
    JEL: F16 J31
    Date: 2005–08
  9. By: Daniel M. Kammen; Majid Ezzati; Robert Bailis
    Abstract: We analyzed the mortality impacts and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions produced by household energy use in Africa. Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, household indoor air pollution will cause an estimated 9.8 million premature deaths by the year 2030. Gradual and rapid transitions to charcoal would delay 1.0 million and 2.8 million deaths, respectively; similar transitions to petroleum fuels would delay 1.3 million and 3.7 million deaths. Cumulative BAU GHG emissions will be 6.7 billion tons of carbon by 2050, which is 5.6% of Africa’s total emissions. Large shifts to the use of fossil fuels would reduce GHG emissions by 1 to 10%. Charcoalintensive future scenarios using current practices increase emissions by 140 to 190%; the increase can be reduced to 5 to 36% using currently available technologies for sustainable production or potentially reduced even more with investment in technological innovation.
    Keywords: Biomass, Petroleum, Energy, Africa
  10. By: Michal Bauer (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic); Julie Chytilová (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: The paper aims to contribute to the understanding of why there is a lack of domestic saving and investment in rural parts of sub-Saharan Africa. It focuses on heterogeneity in inter-temporal preferences as a possible explanation of this important puzzle. The study is based on a unique experimental data set collected from 856 respondents in Ugandan villages and scrutinizes how individual patience – measured by the discount rate – is formed. The results suggest that Ugandan respondents are substantially less patient than their counterparts in similar experimental studies undertaken in developed countries and South Asia. We find a strong negative association between the level of education and the individual discount rate. Furthermore, we took advantage of the Ugandan education reform in 1996 and varying school frequency to demonstrate the causal relationship stemming from education to patience. The estimates suggest that an additional year at school decreases the discount rate on average by 35 percentage points after controlling for other characteristics (age, income group, sex, marital status and clan linkage). Our findings strongly accord with patience understood as a non-cognitive ability which needs to be taught by parents, learnt at school and promoted by social norms. The Ugandan responses, therefore, propose a new way in which education may influence development in sub-Saharan Africa – by shaping individual patience.
    Keywords: Time preference; patience; discount rate; education; savings; economic development; field survey; sub-Saharan Africa
    JEL: C93 D91 O12
    Date: 2007–02
  11. By: Anis Chowdhury (University of Western Sydney, Australia); Terry McKinley (International Poverty Centre)
    Abstract: This paper examines how macroeconomic policies can be managed to accommodate a large inflow of foreign aid to combat the HIV/AIDS epidemic and still maintain macroeconomic stability. Because of the daunting scale of this epidemic, funds need to be disbursed urgently in order to contain its spread, yet some economists worry that rapidly scaling up foreign assistance for this purpose will cause inflation and appreciation of the real exchange rate. If such effects occur, they could impair a country’s international competitiveness and endanger its growth prospects. However, this paper maintains that such effects can be minimised if governments and central banks coordinate fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies. If they do, they should be able to both ‘spend’ aid in order to finance larger government programmes and ‘absorb’ aid in order to import more real resources. Often, governments that receive foreign aid neither spend nor absorb it fully, defeating the basic purpose of development assistance. Because governments fear inflation, they are reluctant to finance a significant increase in spending on HIV/AIDS programmes even when the funding is available. Central banks are reluctant to sell the foreign currency they receive from HIV/AIDS related aid because they fear that such an action might appreciate the domestic currency. However, if aid-induced spending on HIV/AIDS programmes minimises the adverse impact of the epidemic on human capabilities, not only would it combat a grave human development crisis but also it could safeguard long-term economic growth. Instead of adhering to restrictive macroeconomic policies, governments could target their increased spending on productivity enhancing public investment and central banks could amplify the flow of low-cost credit to stimulate private investment. If the real exchange rate does begin to appreciate, the central bank can implement means to manage its fluctuations in order to maintain competitiveness. Moreover, if a significant proportion of HIV/AIDS funds is used to directly finance the import of drugs and medical equipment that are not produced domestically (which is often the case), there is likely to be even less impact on inflation or appreciation of the exchange rate.
    Keywords: Macroeconomic policies, ODA, HIV/AIDS, Poverty
    JEL: I3 D31 H2 H3
    Date: 2006–05
  12. By: Stephan Klasen (Universität Göttingen)
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between measures of income poverty, undernourishment, childhood undernutrition, and child mortality in developing countries. While there is, as expected, a close aggregate correlation between these measures of deprivation, the measures generate some inter-regional paradoxes. Income poverty and child mortality is highest in Africa, but childhood undernutrition is by far the highest in South Asia, while the share of people with insufficient calories (undernourishment) is highest in the Caribbean. The paper finds that standard explanations cannot account for these inter-regional paradoxes, particularly the ones related to undernourishment and childhood undernutrition. The paper suggests that measurement issues related to the way undernourishment and childhood undernutrition is measured might play a significant role in affecting these inter-regional puzzles and points to implications for research and policy.
    Keywords: Millennium Development Goals, Undernutrition, Child Mortality, Poverty
    JEL: I1 I3 O1
    Date: 2007–01–09
  13. By: Duncan Boughton (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); David Mather; David Tschirley; Tom Walker; Benedito Cunguara; Ellen Payongayong
    Abstract: The challenge that faces Mozambique’s government is to design poverty reduction and rural development strategies that deliver three-dimensional growth: rapid growth to reduce poverty incidence quickly, sustainable growth to ensure that people permanently escape poverty, and broad-based growth to ensure that as many families as possible benefit from it. The specific objectives of this paper are: 1. To compare the level, sources, and distribution of rural household incomes in 1995-96 and 2001-02. To achieve this objective, the paper answers questions such as how have rural incomes changed over the six year period; how much have the poorest of the poor benefited; and have rural incomes grown evenly over the whole country or have some areas grown faster than others? 2. To compare the level and composition of agricultural income in 1995-96 and 2001-02. The paper considers the importance of agriculture relative to non-farm activities as a source of rural income, and the mix of agricultural activities, for different income groups. 3. To identify priorities for enhancing agriculture’s contribution to rural economic growth and poverty reduction in the medium term.
    Keywords: food security, food policy, Mozambique, household, income, poverty
    JEL: Q18
    Date: 2006
  14. By: Robert Pollin (Department of Economics and Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts-Amherst); Gerald Epstein (Department of Economics and Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts-Amherst); James Heintz (Department of Economics and Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts-Amherst); Leonce Ndikumana (Department of Economics and Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts-Amherst)
    Abstract: This is an independent report produced by a team of international and national consultants supported by the International Poverty Centre in Brasilia (IPC). Initial support for this report was provided by the Poverty Group of the United Nations Development Programme in New York. This report is part of a wider global research programme encompassing several other countries. The views in this report are the authors’ and not necessarily IPC’s. However, the IPC regards this report as an important contribution to the debate on economic policies and employment programmes in South Africa as well as in other countries in Africa. This report outlines a pro-poor, employment-focused economic policy framework for South Africa. Its specific focus is the severe problem of mass unemployment in South Africa today. Unemployment was between 26.5 and 40.5 percent as of March 2005, depending on whether one uses the ‘official’ or ‘expanded’ definition of unemployment (with the expanded definition including so-called ‘discouraged workers’). The paper’s concentration on the problem of mass unemployment is fully consistent with the stated goals of the current African National Congress (ANC) government. At the Growth and Development Summit in 2003, President Thabo Mbeki singled out “more jobs, better jobs, and decent work for all” as one of the country’s four key economic challenges. Currently, the preliminary presentations of the Government’s new economic policy framework, the “Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative for South Africa (ASGISA)—indicate that it affirms its commitment to cutting the unemployment rate by half by 2014. This publication is a summary of the full report (which is on the website of the Political Economy Research Institute: Following an introductory first section, the full report consists of two short sections that lay out basic concerns, then two substantially longer sections presenting the framework for policy analysis and specific policy proposals. Section 2 presents evidence on the scope of the unemployment problem in South Africa today, considering the unemployed by gender, race, region, length of joblessness and age. It then examines how the country’s problem of mass unemployment can be usefully conceptualized in simple accounting terms—namely, as the result of 1) insufficiency in the rate of output growth, i.e., the economy’s production of goods and services, and 2) a declining number of jobs being created per unit of output. Section 3 examines supply-side perspectives on employment expansion. The fact that the South African economy is experiencing both high unemployment and rising capital intensity of production suggests to some analysts both an explanation for high unemployment and a solution to the problem. For these analysts, the explanation for the problem is straightforward: businesses will not hire more workers because they are convinced that the costs of doing so will exceed the benefits. Businesses therefore choose to either 1) maintain their operations at a lower level than they would if the benefits of hiring more workers exceeded the costs or 2) increase the use of machines in their operations as a substitute for employing workers as their preferred means of expanding their operations. Seen from this perspective, the solution to the problem of unemployment is also straightforward: lower the costs that businesses face in hiring more workers. In general, there are four possible ways in which the costs to businesses of hiring workers could fall: 1) workers receive lower overall compensation, including wages and benefits 2) the industrial relations system and labor market regulations—including laws and regulations regarding workers’ rights to organize, conflict resolution, and hiring and firing—operate with more flexibility for business 3) workers perform their workplace operations at a higher level of productivity or 4) the government absorbs some portion of the costs of hiring workers. In most discussions that consider the sources of unemployment from this business cost-oriented perspective, the focus generally is on the first way to reduce business costs, i.e., to lower wages and benefits for workers relative to both other input costs for production and the prices at which businesses can sell their final products. This study argues that the evidence linking mass unemployment to high labor costs is not persuasive. We also argue that wage cutting as a policy approach is certain to elicit strong resistance, which in turn will worsen the country’s investment climate. At the same time, we do indeed support measures to maintain wage increases in line with productivity growth and to improve the efficiency of the industrial relations system. This report also introduces a proposal for a hybrid program of credit and employment subsidies as a means through which the Government can effectively absorb a share of businesses’ labor costs. Section 4 of the report considers the demand-side forces in South Africa’s economy that will need to be mobilized to achieve faster economic growth and greater labor intensity. In terms of growth, the report discusses all four components of the conventional national income identity that, taken together, define economic growth—i.e., private investment, private consumption, net exports, and government spending. The report places particular stress in this section on the growth-enhancing effects of expanding public infrastructure investments. Indeed, public investment could expand both output and private sector productivity, and could correspondingly increase private investment and export competitiveness. It is significant that the ASGISA program also emphasizes the need for expanded public investment. In considering ways to increase the labor intensity of growth, the report examines two basic approaches. The first is the Expanded Public Works Program (EPWP) now being implemented by the national government. The second approach is to encourage accelerated growth in business activities within South Africa that are capable of generating large increases in employment. The report examines the relative labor intensity of various industries in South Africa as well as the ‘employment multipliers’ of industries, i.e., their capacity to generate relatively large numbers of new jobs through their upstream links with other business firms in the country. Section 5, which concludes the report, considers specific policy tools that can be deployed to promote faster growth, rising labor intensity and greater poverty reduction. It considers policy interventions in the following areas: fiscal policy, monetary policy, credit subsidies, and development banking; capital market and exchange rate controls; inflation control; and sectoral policies in the areas of a) monopolistic pricing and b) promoting growth of selected productivity-enhancing and import-substituting capital-intensive industries, on grounds other than employment benefits.
    JEL: B41 D11 D12 E31 I32 O54
    Date: 2006–06
  15. By: Stephen Kabwe (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Cynthia Donovan; David Samazaka
    Abstract: This research focuses on the performance in the Magoye ripper in maize and cotton production in Eastern and Southern Provinces during the 2004/2005 productions year. Findings include the following: In maize production, the ripper enabled higher yields compared to traditional animal ploughing, by increasing the effectiveness of nitrogen fertilizer applications, resulting in net profits per hectare of ZK575,800 in Eastern Province and ZK93,800 in Southern Province; In cotton, the input applications and size of fields were the most important determinants of yield, and the ripper had no significant individual effect. Farmers using the ripper indicated that it helped conserve water, enabled early land preparation and early planting; and Farmers not using their rippers indicated lack of animals to pull it, lack of repair and spare parts, and a tine that wears down and needs frequent sharpening.
    Keywords: food security, food policy, Zambia, maize, cotton, inputs
    JEL: Q18
    Date: 2006
  16. By: Lisa Chauvet (DIAL, IRD, Paris); Sandrine Mesplé-Somps (DIAL, IRD, Paris)
    Abstract: We propose an econometric analysis of the distributive impact of trade flows, foreign direct investment (FDI), official aid and migrants’ remittances. Results suggest that FDI increases inequality, while remittances tend to reduce inequality. Trade and aid have a non-linear relationship with income distribution : trade favours the poorest in middle income countries while aid favours the middle class in democracies. Simulations suggest that, on average, the highly adverse impact on distribution of FDI is not compensated by the other three sources of financing. Moreover, African countries show a different pattern of distributional impact of trade and aid.________________________________ Nous proposons une analyse économétrique de l’impact sur la distribution des revenus de quatre sources de flux de financements internationaux : les échanges commerciaux, les investissements directs étrangers (IDE), l’aide publique et les transferts des migrants. Nos estimations suggèrent que les IDE augmentent les inégalités, à l’opposé des transferts des migrants. L’ouverture semble être favorable aux populations pauvres dans les pays à revenu intermédiaire, tandis que l’aide est favorable aux classes moyennes dans les pays démocratiques. Des simulations suggèrent qu’en moyenne le fort impact négatif des IDE sur les inégalités n’est pas totalement compensé par l’influence plutôt égalitaire des trois autres sources de financement. De plus, les pays africains semblent se distinguer en ce qui concerne l’impact distributif des flux commerciaux et d’aide.
    Keywords: Inégalités, aide, transferts des migrants, IDE, ouverture commerciale, Inequality, aid, remittances, FDI, trade openness
    JEL: D31 F2 F35
    Date: 2006–12
  17. By: Clevo Wilson (School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology)
    Abstract: Farmers' exposure to pesticides is high in developing countries. As a result they suffer from ill-health, both short and long term. Deaths are not uncommon. The paper examines the cause of this high exposure by estimating farmers’ expenditure on precautions taken using the avertive behaviour approach. The data show that the expenditures on defensive behaviour are low. The paper then uses tobit regression analysis to determine factors that influence defensive behaviour. The results are useful, not only for Sri Lanka, but for many countries in South Asia, Africa and Latin America in reducing the current high levels of direct exposure to pesticides among farmers and farm workers using hand sprayers. Farmers' exposure to pesticides is a major occupational health hazard in these countries.
    Keywords: Exposure to pesticides, ill-health, defensive behaviour, influencing factors, developing countries
  18. By: Terry McKinley (United Nations Development Programme)
    Abstract: This working paper examines the validity of the claim that ‘scaling up’ ODA in developing countries will cause ‘Dutch Disease’ effects that slow growth and human development. The most common concerns are increased inflation and exchange-rate appreciation. Consistent with a recent IMF re-appraisal, the paper maintains that such problems can be mitigated if ODA is properly ‘spent’ and ‘absorbed’. However, many governments either do not spend ODA (because of the fear of inflation) or do not ‘absorb’ it (because of the fear of appreciation). The paper argues that the critical issues are whether 1) increased government spending is focused on public investment and 2) increased imports are focused on capital goods. A central point is that in many developing countries, under-utilized productive capacities can readily respond to rising government demand for domestic goods and services. The paper ends with the warning that although the short-run macroeconomic impact of ODA can be managed, its longer-term impact could, indeed, be adverse if it reduces efforts to mobilize domestic resources, such as public revenue and national savings.
    Keywords: Dutch Disease, Official Development Assistance, Macroeconomic policies, Poverty, Africa
    JEL: F16 J31
    Date: 2005–11
  19. By: François Roubaud (DIAL, IRD, Paris); Jean-Michel Wachsberger (DIAL, Lasmas, Gracc)
    Abstract: The citizens of Madagascar, and especially the capital Antananarivo, display marked support for democracy : adoption of its principles, rejection of authoritarian regimes, etc. The poor populations are no different from the other social groups in this respect. Nevertheless, living in a poor district induces the adoption of values and attitudes of distrust of democracy unlikely to be explained by sociological composition effects. This study is based on representative first-hand surveys at national level and in the capital. The neighbourhood effects, which form real political socialisation vehicles, are updated by an innovative use of the survey’s sampling plan. This is, to our knowledge, the first quantitative study to show such a phenomenon in Africa. We propose a certain number of interpretations of this situation, which prompt a reconsideration of the positive role that studies normally ascribe to associative participation as a factor for democratic reinforcement. These findings put forward new arguments in favour of socially balanced urban policies. _________________________________ A Madagascar, et tout particulièrement dans la capitale, Antananarivo, les citoyens font preuve d’un soutien marqué à la démocratie : adoption de ses principes, rejet des régimes autoritaires, etc. Les populations pauvres ne se distinguent en rien des autres couches sociales sur ce plan. Néanmoins, résider dans un quartier pauvre conduit à adopter des valeurs et attitudes de défiance vis-à-vis de la démocratie, qui ne sont pas susceptibles d’être expliquées par des effets de composition sociologique. Cette étude est basée sur des enquêtes représentatives de première main, tant au niveau national que de la capitale. Les effets de quartiers, qui apparaissent comme de véritables matrices de socialisation politique, sont mis à jour grâce à une exploitation originale du plan de sondage de l’enquête. Il s’agit à notre connaissance de la première étude quantitative faisant état d’un tel phénomène en Afrique. Nous proposons un certain nombre d’interprétations à cet état de fait, qui conduisent notamment à reconsidérer le rôle positif habituellement attribué dans la littérature à la participation associative comme facteur de renforcement démocratique. Ces résultats donnent de nouveaux arguments en faveur de politiques urbaines de mixité sociale.
    Keywords: Antananarivo, Citoyenneté démocratique, Madagascar, participation associative, pauvreté, effets quartier, Antananarivo, democratic citizenship, Madagascar, associative participation, poverty, neighbourhood effects.
    JEL: C25 D60 D71 D72 I31 I32
    Date: 2007–02
  20. By: Mohamed Abdillahi Bahdon
    Abstract: L’objet de cette étude est de présenter un bilan critique du processus de changement politique vers un autre régime politique de la République de Djibouti. Il convient toutefois d’analyser le processus djiboutien dans le temps pour faire ressortir les différents éléments qui ont eu un impact important dans le développement du nouveau régime. La présente étude s’articule autour de deux principaux points, d’une part une analyser du contexte sociopolitique de l’année 1991 et les réformes politiques à la fin de l’année 1992 et d’autre part la mise en place du nouveau régime et la pratique politique institutionnelle.
    Keywords: Djibouti, Economy, Policy, reforms
  21. By: Terry McKinley (International Poverty Centre); Degol Hailu
    Keywords: Poverty, ECONOMIC, Macroeconomic, HIV, AIDS
    JEL: B41 D11 D12 E31 I32 O54
    Date: 2006–09
  22. By: John Weeks (International Poverty Centre); Terry McKiley
    Abstract: This Country Study critically examines fiscal policies in Zambia, particularly the effect of recent and projected debt relief on ‘fiscal space’. The study finds that due to associated policy conditionalities and other factors, HIPC debt relief will result in less fiscal space, rather than more. And projected G-8 debt relief will only marginally expand fiscal space. Part of the problem is that the Zambian government has little leeway to choose its own fiscal policies, despite donor rhetoric about ‘national ownership’ of poverty-reduction policies. Drawing on the analysis of a national study, the Country Study also estimates the additional public expenditures that would enable Zambia to reach the MDGs. In order to finance these expenditures, it proposes a diversified strategy of increasing tax revenue, expanding the fiscal deficit and obtaining more ODA. Finally, it recommends core elements of an expansionary macro framework that could support a seven per cent rate of economic growth (needed to attain MDG #1, i.e., halving extreme income poverty) and buttress the government’s effort to reach the other MDGs. In the process, it seeks to dispel common fears about the possible adverse effects of such fiscal expansion.
    JEL: B41 D11 D12 E31 I32 O54
    Date: 2006–09
  23. By: Gerald Epstein (Department of Economics and Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts-Amherst); James Heintz (Department of Economics and Political Economy Research)
    Abstract: This Country Study summarizes the findings and recommendations of a UNDP-supported study on the linkages among central bank policy, the financial structure and employment outcomes in Ghana. The study maintains that monetary policy must be coordinated with financial sector reforms in order to generate poverty-reducing employment. Its analysis highlights serious problems of restrictive inflation-targeting, a high real interest rate policy and insufficient lending of financial resources for productive private investment. In response, it recommends that monetary policy in Ghana should be specifically geared to promoting economic growth and employment along with maintaining moderate levels of inflation. Targeting such real variables, it maintains, will imply regular collection of data, such as on employment trends. In order to lower the cost of borrowing and foster greater access to credit, the study offers several policy recommendations, including credit guarantee schemes, reducing interest rates on government securities, using asset-based reserve requirements to direct credit and forging stronger links between formal and informal financial institutions. The study’s main point is that monetary and financial sector policies should be recast as crucial instruments of development and be well integrated into Ghana’s Poverty Reduction Strategy.
    Keywords: Poverty, ECONOMIC, GHANA, REDUCTION
    JEL: B41 D11 D12 E31 I32 O54
    Date: 2006–06
  24. By: Dasgupta, Susmita; Laplante, Benoit; Meisner, Craig; Wheeler, David; Jianping Yan
    Abstract: Sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change is a serious global threat. The scientific evidence is now overwhelming. Continued growth of greenhouse gas emissions and associated global warming could well promote SLR of 1m-3m in this century, and unexpectedly rapid breakup of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets might produce a 5m SLR. In this paper, the authors have assessed the consequences of continued SLR for 84 developing countries. Geographic Information System (GIS) software has been used to overlay the best available, spatially-disaggregated global data on critical impact elements (land, population, agriculture, urban extent, wetlands, and GDP) with the inundation zones projected for 1-5m SLR. The results reveal that hundreds of millions of people in the developing world are likely to be displaced by SLR within this century, and accompanying economic and ecological damage will be severe for many. At the country level, results are extremely skewed, with severe impacts limited to a relatively small number of countries. For these countries (such as Vietnam, A. R. of Egypt, and The Bahamas), however, the consequences of SLR are potentially catastrophic. For many others, including some of the largest (such as China), the absolute magnitudes of potential impacts are very large. At the other extreme, many developing countries experience limited impacts. Among regions, East Asia and the Middle East and North Africa exhibit the greatest relative impacts. To date, there is little evidence that the international community has seriously considered the implications of SLR for population location and infrastructure planning in developing countries. The authors hope that the information provided in this paper will encourage immediate planning for adaptation.
    Keywords: Wetlands,Climate Change,Population Policies,Country Strategy & Performance,Geographical Information Systems
    Date: 2007–02–01
  25. By: Nanak Kakwani (International Poverty Centre); Hyun H. Son (International Poverty Centre)
    Abstract: This paper proposes a new “Pro-Poor Policy (PPP)” index, which measures the pro-poorness of government programmes, as well as basic service delivery in education, health and infrastructure. The index provides a means to assess the targeting efficiency of government programmes compared to perfect targeting. The paper also deals with the policy issue of how targeting efficiency of government programmes varies across various socioeconomic groups. To this effect, the paper develops two types of PPP indices by socioeconomic groups, which are within-group and total-group PPP indices. The within-group PPP index captures how well targeted a programme is within a group. On the other hand, if our objective is to maximize poverty reduction at the national level, the targeting efficiency of particular group should be judged on the basis of total-group PPP index. Using micro unit-record data on household surveys from Thailand, Russia, Vietnam, and 15 African countries, the paper evaluates a wide range of government programmes and basic services.
    Keywords: Targeting, Universal, Pro-Poor, Poverty
    JEL: C15 I32
    Date: 2005–05
  26. By: Lisa Chauvet (DIAL, IRD, Paris); Paul Collier (CSAE, Oxford)
    Abstract: We define ‘failing states’ are those low-income states in which policy and governance is persistently very bad. We develop a theory of reform in these states in which several characteristics of the society might potentially be the binding constraint on change. We then introduce aid, disaggregated into technical assistance and finance, showing how it might affect these constraints. We then test our theory of aid and reform on global data. We estimate hazard functions to establish what enhances the prospects of sustained reform. We find that a proxy for the relaxation of the binding constraints postulated in the theory is highly significant. There is some evidence that both technical capacity in the society and elite interests are particularly important. Early aid has substantial but offsetting effects: technical assistance consolidates incipient reform whereas finance chills it.________________________________ Les Etats fragiles auxquels nous nous intéressons sont les pays à faible revenu caractérisés par la faiblesse de leurs institutions et de leurs politiques économiques. Le statut d’Etat fragile est très persistant. Nous développons une théorie des réformes, adaptée à ce contexte, dans laquelle plusieurs caractéristiques de la société peuvent potentiellement contraindre les réformes. Nous identifions la manière dont l’aide peut influencer ces différentes contraintes en distinguant l’assistance technique du reste de l’aide. Nous proposons ensuite des tests économétriques de manière à identifier les principales contraintes aux réformes dans les Etats fragiles, et le rôle de l’aide. Ces tests suggèrent que les contraintes de capacité institutionnelle et de préférences de l’élite au pouvoir sont particulièrement importantes dans les Etats fragiles. De plus, en début de réforme, l’assistance technique renforce le processus de réforme tandis que l’aide financière le fragilise.
    Keywords: Fragile States, reforms, foreign aid, technical assistance, hazard model, Etats fragiles, réformes, aide publique au développement, assistance technique, modèle de durée
    JEL: C41 F35 O50
    Date: 2006–11
  27. By: Terry McKiley (International Poverty Centre); Farhad Mehran (Statistical Development and Analysis, Policy Integration Department, International Labour Office)
    Abstract: This Country Study seeks to identify employment policies for Yemen that would support an ambitious MDG-based Development Strategy. Based principally on Labour Force and Labour Demand Surveys, it analyzes Yemen’s labour force, structure of employment and unemployment, demand for labour, and hours and wages. The study shows that the country is caught in a scissors between slow economic growth and rapid growth of the labour force. The result is widespread underemployment and poverty. While Yemen currently enjoys a boon in oil revenues, its economy remains undiversified and suffers from low productivity and incomes. As a result, the Country Study proposes a four-pronged MDG-oriented Growth, Employment and Poverty Reduction Strategy that would help the country reach the MDGs. This strategy is designed to accelerate economic growth, improve the employment intensity of growth, focus more resources on the poor and stimulate private-sector expansion, particularly in sectors with strong potential for growth and employment.
    Keywords: Poverty, ECONOMIC, EMPLOYMENT, YEMEN
    JEL: B41 D11 D12 E31 I32 O54
    Date: 2006–09
  28. By: Ruth Levine; Ernst R. Berndt; Rachel Glennerster; Michael R. Kremer; Jean Lee; Georg Weizsacker; Heidi Williams
    Abstract: The G8 is considering committing to purchase vaccines against diseases concentrated in low-income countries (if and when desirable vaccines are developed) as a way to spur research and development on vaccines for these diseases. Under such an “advance market commitment,” one or more sponsors would commit to a minimum price to be paid per person immunized for an eligible product, up to a certain number of individuals immunized. For additional purchases, the price would eventually drop to close to marginal cost. If no suitable product were developed, no payments would be made. We estimate the offer size which would make revenues similar to the revenues realized from investments in typical existing commercial pharmaceutical products, as well as the degree to which various model contracts and assumptions would affect the cost-effectiveness of such a commitment. We make adjustments for lower marketing costs under an advance market commitment and the risk that a developer may have to share the market with subsequent developers. We also show how this second risk could be reduced, and money saved, by introducing a superiority clause to a commitment. Under conservative assumptions, we document that a commitment comparable in value to sales earned by the average of a sample of recently launched commercial products (adjusted for lower marketing costs) would be a highly cost-effective way to address HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. Sensitivity analyses suggest most characteristics of a hypothetical vaccine would have little effect on the cost-effectiveness, but that the duration of protection conferred by a vaccine strongly affects potential cost-effectiveness. Readers can conduct their own sensitivity analyses employing a web-based spreadsheet tool.
    Keywords: advance market commitment, vaccine, disease, HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, cost-effective
    JEL: I11 I12 I10
    Date: 2006–08
  29. By: William Easterly; Alberto Alesina; Janina Matuszeski
    Abstract: Artificial states are those in which political borders do not coincide with a division of nationalities desired by the people on the ground. We propose and compute for all countries in the world two new measures how artificial states are. One is based on measuring how borders split ethnic groups into two separate adjacent countries. The other one measures how straight land borders are, under the assumption the straight land borders are more likely to be artificial. We then show that these two measures seem to be highly correlated with several measures of political and economic success.
    Keywords: Artificial states, political borders
    JEL: O10 F50
    Date: 2006–09

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