nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2006‒12‒01
seventeen papers chosen by
Suzanne McCoskey
Foreign Service Institute, US Department of State

  1. Improving Production and Marketing to Enhance Food Security in Mozambique By David Tschirley; Danilo Abdula; Michael T. Weber
  2. The Many Paths of Cotton Sector Reform in Eastern and Southern Africa: Lessons from a Decade of Experience. By David Tschirley; Colin Poulton; Duncan Boughton
  3. Should Aid Reward Good Outcomes? Optimal Contracts in a Repeated Moral Hazard Model of Foreign Aid Allocation By ISOPI ALESSIA; MATTESINI FABBRIZIO
  4. Effects of Education on Determinants of High Desired Fertility: Evidence from Ugandan Villages By Michal Bauer; Julie Chytilová; Pavel Streblov
  5. The Economic Impact of AIDS Treatment: Labor Supply in Western Kenya By Harsha Thirumurthy; Joshua Graff Zivin; Markus Goldstein
  6. The Consequences of Child Soldiering By Christopher Blattman
  7. The effects of Fair Trade on Marginalised producers: an Impact Analysis Farmers By BECCHETTI LEONARDO; COSTANTINO MARCO
  8. Understanding Zambia’s Domestic Value Chains for Fresh Fruits and Vegetables By Munguzwe Hichaambwa; David Tschirley
  9. Marché du crédit et travail décent au Burkina Faso By Adama Zerbo
  10. Country Size and the Rule of Law: Resuscitating Montesquieu By Gustav Hansson; Ola Olsson
  11. Estimating Poverty in Burundi By Tom Bundervoet
  12. Religion, capital social et réduction de la pauvreté au Cameroun: Le cas de la ville de Yaoundé By Yves Odia Ndongo; Alice Ebéné; Joanna Tegnerowicz
  13. Resource curse or not: A question of appropriability By Anne D. Boschini; Jan Pettersson; Jesper Roine
  14. The Effects of Infrastructure Development on Growth and Income Distribution By César Calderón; Luis Servén
  15. Family, obligations, and migration: the role of kinship in Cameroon By Annett Fleischer
  16. Brains for Capital. The Effect of Brain Drain on Investments and Convergence By Piotr Stryszowski
  17. The Brain Drain and the World Distribution of Income and Population Growth By Andrew Mountford; Hillel Rapoport

  1. By: David Tschirley (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Danilo Abdula; Michael T. Weber
    Abstract: Food system challenges are examined from the standpoint of the country’s principal staple food: maize. Steps are identified that the country could take in the short-run to improve the situation, and also emphasize the long-term challenges the country faces. The focus is principally on the Center and South of the country because, with South Africa, they form a natural market area due to production patterns and transport costs; maize north of the Zambezi River flows almost entirely to northern cities or to Malawi, or feeds net buyers in the North.
    Keywords: food security, food policy, Mozambique, maize
    JEL: Q18
    Date: 2005
  2. By: David Tschirley (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Colin Poulton; Duncan Boughton (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University)
    Abstract: While African cotton sectors face common technical challenges, the structure of the market for seed cotton strongly influences which of these challenges are most difficult to meet and which types of institutions need to emerge if the system is to be sustainable. Institutional innovation is the key to improving performance in cash crop sectors; large injections of public capital are not needed. Direct state management of funds from industry levies is problematical. Vesting regulatory and coordination functions within multi-stakeholder bodies – where government is one actor among many -- may be the most promising approach for many sectors. Regular “deliberative fora” are invaluable for building trust between stakeholders and seeking innovative solutions to tackling sector-wide problems.
    Keywords: food security, food policy, cotton sector reform
    JEL: Q18
    Abstract: We consider in this paper a repeated moral hazard model where a donor, characterized both by altruistic and non altruistic motives, finances a three periods poverty eradication project. In order to model the significant problems that donors face in the actual implementation of aid programs, we assume that the elites of the recipient country, who play an important role in carrying out the project, have an incentive to divert resources from the intended use. We show that optimal aid contracts should be conditional on the previous results of the project. We distinguish however between strong conditionality where contracts are specified on the basis of the performance of the project in all periods and weak conditionality where contracts have, instead, short memory. In this case a recipient that experienced a negative performance will receive less aid in the following period, but will bear no further consequences in the future. If a donor assigns a lot of weight to the welfare of the recipient country compared to the cost of giving aid and the incentive of the elite to divert resources, an optimal aid allocation policy always implies a positive level of aid even if the project had a negative outcome in the previous period. In the opposite case, optimal contracts imply no aid after a negative performance of the project. JEL classification: F35, D82 Key words: Foreign Aid, Optimal Contracts, Moral Hazard.
    Date: 2006–06
  4. By: Michal Bauer (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic); Julie Chytilová (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic); Pavel Streblov (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: High desired fertility is an important factor contributing to the population explosion in sub-Saharan Africa. On a broad sample of 910 respondents from the rural areas of Uganda this paper assesses the impact of health risks, economic contributions from children, traditional community institutions and unequal position of women on desired fertility levels. The paper further scrutinizes how these determinants are affected by education. The results show that fear of diseases and involvement in traditional clan institutions increase desired number of children. Interestingly, these effects can be remarkably mitigated through education that improves the individual health prevention as well as reduces the influence of clans. Economic incentives for having children seem to be less significant than other factors. In addition, a very significant difference in desired fertility between men and women emerges, nevertheless education leads both to reduction and convergence of their desired fertility levels. All these findings suggest that education stimulates a complex change in fertility preferences and underline the importance of education as efficient tool for reducing rapid population growth.
    Keywords: fertility; education; development; demography
    JEL: I1 I2 J1
    Date: 2006–09
  5. By: Harsha Thirumurthy (Center for Global Development); Joshua Graff Zivin (Columbia University); Markus Goldstein (World Bank)
    Abstract: Using longitudinal survey data from western Kenya, this paper estimates the economic impacts of antiretroviral treatment. The responses in two important outcomes are studied: (1) labor supply of adult AIDS patients receiving treatment; and (2) labor supply of patients’ household members. We find that within six months after treatment initiation, there is a 20 percent increase in patients’ likelihood of participating in the labor force and a 35 percent increase in weekly hours worked. Since patient health would continue to decline without treatment, these labor supply responses are underestimates of the impact of treatment on the treated. The upper bound of the treatment impact, based on plausible assumptions about the counterfactual, is considerably larger. The responses in household members’labor supply are heterogeneous, with young boys and women work significiantly less after initiation of treatment. The effects on child labor are important since they suggest potential schooling impacts from treatment.
    Keywords: HIV/AIDS, ARV Treatment, Labor Supply, Child Labor
    JEL: I1 I3 O1 J2
    Date: 2006–11
  6. By: Christopher Blattman (University of California, Berkeley)
    Abstract: Civil wars have afflicted two-thirds of African nations, drawing up to a third of male youth into armed groups. Little is known, however, about the long term effects of military participation due to a lack of data and potential sample selection: recruits are usually self-selected and screened, and may also selectively survive. This paper presents new evidence on the causal impact of military participation using an original dataset collected by the author in northern Uganda. The large-scale, indiscriminate and forcible abduction of youth by Ugandan rebels provide arguably exogenous variation in exposure to conflict. Results suggest that the most prevalent effect of abduction is on human capital acquisition: abductees lose nearly a year of schooling on average. Combined with a greater incidence of injuries, this schooling loss leads to nearly a third lower earnings. Meanwhile, exposure to conflict seems to increase political participation: abductees are more likely to vote and twice as likely to be community leaders. Finally, the psychological impacts of war appear to be moderate and concentrated in a minority. These results run counter to the prevailing view that war primarily causes ‘psychosocial’ distress. Post-conflict policy implications are discussed.
    Date: 2006–11
    Abstract: We analyse the impact of affiliation to Fair Trade (FT) on monetary and non monetary measures of well-being in a sample of Kenyan farmers. Our econometric findings document significant differences in terms of price satisfaction, monthly household food consumption, (self declared) income satisfaction, dietary quality and child mortality for Fair Trade and Meru Herbs (first level local producers organisation) affiliated with respect to a control sample. Methodological problems such as the FT vis à vis Meru Herbs relative contribution, control sample bias and local cooperative and fair trade selection biases are carefully discussed and addressed. After reconstructing the dynamics of human capital investment in the observed households we show that affiliation to the younger vintage FT project is associated with a significantly higher schooling investment.
    Date: 2005–10
  8. By: Munguzwe Hichaambwa (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); David Tschirley
    Abstract: The proportion of smallholder households selling horticultural produce is very low suggesting that new demand points could enjoy substantial supply response if they link effectively to the smallholder sector. The small-scale traditional marketing system continues to dominate fresh produce flows in the country. Prices for consumers in this system are much lower, and quality is comparable and sometimes superior to supermarkets. Yet these markets suffer from serious structural problems due to a lack of public investment and little collaboration between public officials and traders in market management. The Urban Markets Development Program represents a major and impressive effort to improve wholesale and retail markets in the country, but has run into problems as legislative reform has stalled. In addition, UMDP was not designed to address key issues of improved linkages between rural farmers and urban markets. These need to be addressed with improved market information and marketing extension. Zambia’s horticultural sector operates in a regional market, exporting and importing every year. Understanding and quantifying this trade will be the first step in ensuring that policies and programs are conducive to continued high rates of growth. Major new supermarket outlets are in the market to stay, and their effects on smallholder farmers and the traditional marketing system need to be better understood. Where appropriate, programs to facilitate direct marketing by smallholders to these chains should be supported, but should not distract from an overall focus on improving urban wholesale and retail markets and linking these more effectively to farmers.
    Keywords: food security, food policy, Zambia, horticulture
    JEL: Q18
    Date: 2006
  9. By: Adama Zerbo (CED / IFReDE-GRES, Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV)
    Abstract: Cette étude visait à dégager des pistes de réflexions pour une meilleure coordination des politiques visant à faciliter l’accès au crédit et à optimiser son allocation dans l’économie pour plus de travail décent au Burkina Faso. Elle montre que le marché du crédit burkinabé est compartimenté en quatre segments qui se distinguent par les mécanismes d’offre de crédit, de gestion de l’information et du risque de crédit. Par ailleurs, l’appel public à l’épargne de l’Etat s’apparente au financement des dépenses publiques par le circuit bancaire au regard de ses effets directs significatifs sur le marché crédit. Le cloisonnement du marché du crédit réduirait significativement l’efficacité des instruments traditionnels de politique monétaire, ainsi que l’impact du marché du crédit sur le travail décent. Pour y remédier, les pistes de réflexions suivantes méritent d’être approfondies : (i) la mise en place d’un système de garanties accessible aux petites et moyennes entreprises, (ii) le renforcement de l’efficacité du système judiciaire pour améliorer le taux de recouvrement des crédits en souffrance afin de réduire l’aversion des banquiers pour le risque, (iii) l’accroissement de la disponibilité et la fiabilité de l’information comptable au niveau des PME afin de permettre aux créanciers d’apprécier le risque à prendre et (iv) le développement à l’horizontale et à la verticale du micro-crédit pour une complémentarité efficace entre crédit bancaire et micro-crédit. This paper aimed to underline reflections tracks for better coordination of credit market policies in Burkina Faso so as to boost decent work. It shows that Burkina Faso credit market has four compartments which are characterized by their credit supply, information and risk management mechanisms. In addition, Treasury bond emission remains equal to the financing of public expenditure by banking system in regard to his effects on credit market. The segmentation of credit market would significantly reduce effective of monetary policy and impact of credit market on decent work. To cure it, following reflections tracks have to be thorough: (i) creating guarantees device accessible to SME; (ii) reinforcing legal system effectiveness to improve the recovery rate of overdue credits in order to reduce bankers’ aversion for risk; (iii) improving of availability and reliability of hard information in SME in turn to allow creditors to assess the risk; (iv) horizontal and vertical development of micro-credit for effective complementary between banking system and microfinance. (Full text in french)
    JEL: E3 J5
    Date: 2006–11
  10. By: Gustav Hansson; Ola Olsson
    Abstract: The political and economic impact of country size has been a frequently discussed issue in social science. In accordance with the general hypothesis of Montesquieu, this paper demonstrates that there is a robust negative relationship between the size of country territory and a measure of the rule of law for a large cross-section of countries. We propose that there are two main reasons for this regularity; firstly that institutional quality often has the character of a local public good that is imperfectly spread across space from the capital to the hinterland, and secondly that a large territory usually is accompanied by valuable rents that tend to distort property rights institutions. Our empirical analysis further shows that whether the capital is centrally or peripherally located within the country matters for the average level of rule of law.
    Keywords: country size, rule of law, institutions, development, Montesquieu
    JEL: N40 N50 P33
    Date: 2006–06
  11. By: Tom Bundervoet (Vrije Universiteit Brussel)
    Abstract: In this paper, we evaluate absolute consumption poverty and inequality in rural and urban Burundi after more than 5 years of civil war. Using the cost of basic needs method, we find a poverty incidence of 71.5% in rural areas and 36.5% in Bujumbura, and a Gini-coefficient of inequality of respectively 34.9 and 44.5%. In analysing the main correlates and determinants of rural poverty, we identify the very low levels of education and the intensity of the civil war as key factors explaining the high incidence of rural poverty.
    Date: 2006–10
  12. By: Yves Odia Ndongo (UY II - Université de Yaoundé II - [Université de Yaoundé II], IUED - Institut Universitaire d'Etudes du Développement - [Institut Universitaire d'Etudes du Développement], PEP - Politiques Economiques et Pauvreté - [Université Laval]); Alice Ebéné (IUED - Institut Universitaire d'Etudes du Développement - [Institut Universitaire d'Etudes du Développement]); Joanna Tegnerowicz (IS UWR - Institut de Sociologie, Université de Wroclaw - [Université de Wroclaw], CROP - Comparative Research Programme on Poverty - [Comparative Research Programme on Poverty])
    Abstract: Ce papier s'inscrit dans la logique des débats ayant cours depuis une dizaine d'années sur les<br />politiques de réduction de la pauvreté. Il évalue l'influence du capital social religieux sur la pauvreté<br />des ménages au Cameroun et particulièrement dans la ville de Yaoundé. Dans un premier temps, il<br />identifie les déterminants du capital social religieux à partir d'un indicateur composite obtenu par le<br />pourcentage de chefs de ménages répondant par l'affirmative à la question : « Pouvez-vous compter<br />sur un soutien financier (emprunt et/ou don) de la part de votre communauté (d'un membre ou des<br />responsables) en cas de maladie, de décès d'un membre de famille, de perte d'emploi ou de période<br />de soudure ? ». Les estimations ont permis d'arriver à la conclusion que la réponse positive à cette<br />question dépend du niveau d'éducation, de la fréquence de lecture du livre saint (Bible ou Coran), de<br />la régularité du chef de famille aux réunions dans sa communauté religieuse et de l'existence ou non,<br />au sein de sa communauté religieuse, d'un mode d'assistance formel et/ou informel sur lequel le chef<br />de ménage peut compter en cas d'imprévu. Ensuite, l'étude estime dans trois modèles différents, un<br />indicateur de pauvreté monétaire, de conditions de vie et un indicateur de pauvreté des potentialités à<br />partir des déterminants socioéconomiques et des variables religieuses permettant d'expliquer le<br />capital social religieux. Les résultats obtenus montrent que ces variables religieuses influencent la<br />pauvreté des ménages dans la ville de Yaoundé.
    Keywords: capital social; pauvreté
    Date: 2006–10–24
  13. By: Anne D. Boschini; Jan Pettersson; Jesper Roine
    Abstract: This paper shows that whether natural resources are good or bad for a country’s development crucially depends on the interaction between institutional setting and the type of resources possessed by the country. Some natural resources are, for economical and technical reasons, more likely to cause problems such as rent-seeking and conflicts than others. This potential problem can, however, be countered by good institutional quality. In contrast to the traditional resource curse hypothesis, we show the impact of natural resources on economic growth to be non-monotonic in institutional quality. Countries rich in minerals are cursed only if they have low quality institutions, while the curse is reversed if institutions are sufficiently good.
    Keywords: Natural Resources, Appropriability, Property Rights, Institutions, Economic Growth, Development
    JEL: O40 O57 P16 O13 N50
    Date: 2006–06
  14. By: César Calderón; Luis Servén
    Abstract: This paper provides an empirical evaluation of the impact of infrastructure development on economic growth and income distribution using a large panel data set encompassing over 100 countries and spanning the years 1960-2000. The empirical strategy involves the estimation of simple equations for GDP growth and conventional inequality measures, augmented to include among the regressors infrastructure quantity and quality indicators in addition to standard controls. To account for the potential endogeneity of infrastructure (as well as that of other regressors), we use a variety of GMM estimators based on both internal and external instruments, and report results using both disaggregated and synthetic measures of infrastructure quantity and quality. The two robust results are: (i) growth is positively affected by the stock of infrastructure assets, and (ii) income inequality declines with higher infrastructure quantity and quality. A variety of specification tests suggest that these results do capture the causal impact of the exogenous component of infrastructure quantity and quality on growth and inequality. These two results combined suggest that infrastructure development can be highly effective to combat poverty. Furthermore, illustrative simulations for Latin American countries suggest that these impacts are economically quite significant, and highlight the growth acceleration and inequality reduction that would result from increased availability and quality of infrastructure.
    Keywords: Infrastructure, Growth, Income Inequality
    JEL: H54 O54
    Date: 2005–06
  15. By: Annett Fleischer (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the influence of family and kin networks on the individual decision to migrate. The study is based on qualitative ethnographic data collected during field research in Cameroon and shows the considerable impact of the extended family on the migrant’s decision to leave Cameroon for Germany. Migrants do not necessarily set out to pursue individual goals. They are often delegated to leave by authority figures in their extended family. The individual is part of an informal reciprocal system of exchange, which is based on trust, has social consequences, and includes duties and responsibilities for both sides.
    Keywords: Cameroon, Germany, decision making, kinship, migration, race relations, remittances
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2006–11
  16. By: Piotr Stryszowski
    Abstract: The empirical experience of countries hit by brain drain shows no clear impact of human capital outflow on the source economy. This study shows that by triggering the capital flows from abroad, the brain can be beneficial for the sending countries. The theoretical claim about the causal effect of brain drain on capital flows is supported by empirical analysis.
    Keywords: Economic Growth, Technological Change, Brain Drain, FDI
    JEL: O15 O30 F21 F22
    Date: 2006–06
  17. By: Andrew Mountford; Hillel Rapoport
    Abstract: Over the last two decades immigration policies in OECD economies have become increasingly selective and the rate of skilled migration from low income economies has risen markedly. This paper analyzes the theoretical implications of this shift in migration patterns for the growth and distribution of world income and population using a model with endogenous education, fertility and migration decisions in both the sending and receiving economies. It shows that Brain Drain migration may cause fertility to fall and human capital accumulation to increase in both the sending and receiving economies. It also shows that the world economy may converge to a special kind of core-periphery equilibrium where increasing inequality between countries is fueled by Brain Drain migration but where, nonetheless, the welfare of agents in both the core and the periphery is increased. Thus Brain Drain migration may increase inequality between countries at the same time as reducing world poverty and increasing world growth.
    Keywords: Migration, Growth
    JEL: O40 F11 F43
    Date: 2006–06

This nep-afr issue is ©2006 by Suzanne McCoskey. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
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