nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2006‒06‒10
six papers chosen by
Suzanne McCoskey
Foreign Service Institute, US Department of State

  1. Understanding the Persistent Low Performance of African Agriculture By Sylvain Dessy; Jacques Ewoudou; Isabelle Ouellet
  2. Governance and private investment in the Middle East and North Africa By Veganzones-Varoudakis, Marie-Ange; Nabli, Mustapha Kamel; Aysan, Ahmet Faruk
  3. Development and Social Goals: Balancing Aid and Development to Prevent ‘Welfare Colonialism’ By Erik S. Reinert
  4. The Growth economics of epidemics By Raouf, BOUCEKKINE; Bity, DIENE; Theophile, AZOMAHOU
  5. Trade Liberalization and the Dynamics of Poverty in Tunisia: a Layered CGE Microsimulation Analysis/Libéralisation des échanges et dynamique de la pauvreté en Tunisie: Analyse avec une micro-simulation séquentielle By Sami Bibi; Rim Chatti
  6. Dyamique de la pauvreté au Burkina Faso de 1994 à 1998 By Claude Wetta; Bernard Bonzi K.

  1. By: Sylvain Dessy; Jacques Ewoudou; Isabelle Ouellet
    Abstract: We explain the persistence of low performances in African agriculture by analyzing the determinants of farmers' decisions to modernize their farming practices. Owing to sociocultural factors specific to Sub-Saharan Africa, farmers' decisions on farming practices are strategic complements. We demonstrate that the modernization game these farmers play admits two pure-strategy, Pareto-ranked, symmetric Nash-equilibria. The equilibrium where all farmers choose to modernize their farming methods is preferred to the one where all of them choose to stick to a traditional method. We argue that scarcity and economic opportunities put forward by neo-Boserupian theories of induced-innovation as determinants of the onset agricultural innovations are, in the context of African countries, only necessary, but not sufficient to generate modernization of farming methods. Deliberate action to enhance aadoption of agricultural innovations must therefore take the African's sociocultural context into consideration, or risk failure.
    Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa, Agricultural modernization, Fertilizer adoption, Supermodular games
    JEL: O14 C72 O13 Q12
    Date: 2006
  2. By: Veganzones-Varoudakis, Marie-Ange; Nabli, Mustapha Kamel; Aysan, Ahmet Faruk
    Abstract: This paper addresses the issue of the low level of private investment in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, with special emphasis on the role of governance. Based on the existing literature, the authors categorize what types of governance institutions are more detrimental to entrepreneurial investments. They then estimate a simultaneous model of private investment and governance quality where economic policies concurrently explain both variables. The empirical results show that governance plays a significant role in private investment decisions. This result is particularly true in the case of " administrative quality " in the form of control of corruption, bureaucratic quality, investment-friendly profile of administration, and law and order, as well as for " political stability. " Evidence in favor of " public accountability " seems, however, less robust. The estimations also stress that structural reforms-such as financial development and trade openness-and human development affect private investment decisions directly, and/or through their positive impact on governance. These findings bring new empirical evidence on the subject of private investment in the developing world and in MENA countries in particular.
    Keywords: Governance Indicators,Investment and Investment Climate,Economic Theory & Research,National Governance,Trade and Regional Integration
    Date: 2006–06–01
  3. By: Erik S. Reinert
    Abstract: In the paper the author tries to explain why the Millennium Goals, with which the world community is approaching the social problems in the poor countries, cannot be considered as good social policy in the long run. The key insight of the author is that having an inefficient manufacturing sector produces a higher standard of living than having no manufacturing sector at all.
    Date: 2006–01
  4. By: Raouf, BOUCEKKINE (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Department of Economics); Bity, DIENE; Theophile, AZOMAHOU
    Abstract: This paper examines in an endogenous growth theory perspective the mechanisms through which epidemics affect long term growth. Investment in both physical and human capital are key transmission variables in this respect. The paper distinguishes between Spanish flu like epidemics and AIDS like epidemics. Two-sector growth models are shown to better reflect the specific effects of epidemics. The effects of an AIDS like pandemic on savings and education effort are also modelled via life expectancy. The paper is closed by an extension of the celebrated Cuddington-Hancock model to account for the latter features. An application to the South African case is provided. The main finding points at a delayed effect of Aids on economic growth due to the recent sharp drop in llife expectancy in this country.
    Keywords: Epidemics, Human capital, Life expectancy, Growth theory, Spanish flu, AIDS
    JEL: C61 C62
    Date: 2006–05–15
  5. By: Sami Bibi; Rim Chatti
    Abstract: The effects of trade liberalization on poverty in Tunisia are examined, using a layered dynamic CGE-microsimulation approach. A dynamic CGE model endogenously generates the evolution of prices, as well as income paths under protection and freer trade assumptions for each household group. These results are then used to assess the change in real income of each household, using a sample from the 1995 household survey, and thus the effects of the simulated changes on poverty. Dominance tests are also used to avoid the arbitrariness of choosing line and a poverty measure. Simulation results show that trade openness slows down the poverty reduction in the short run, but enhances it in the long-run/Une analyse dynamique des effets de la libéralisation commerciale montre que celle-ci n'entraînera pas, contrairement aux cas précédents, une augmentation de la pauvreté en Tunisie. Néanmoins, l'ouverture commerciale freinera probablement la dynamique de la réduction de la pauvreté à court terme mais, l'accélèrera à long terme. La baisse de la pauvreté touchera aussi bien les ménages urbains que ruraux, avec une plus faible réduction de la pauvreté rurale à court et à long terme. Pour comprendre ce résultat, il faut d'abord noter que la Tunisie, comme dans la plupart des autres pays, impose des taux de protection plus élevés sur les produits agricoles que sur les produits industriels; pendant que les branches industrielles, notamment celle des services, contribuent davantage aux recettes d'exportation. Par conséquent, la libéralisation commerciale entraîne une expansion plus rapide du secteur des services par rapport aux autres branches industrielles et au secteur agricole. Cela engendre un taux de croissance du revenu nominal des ouvriers et des exploitants agricoles plus faible que celui des autres ménages urbains. Les prix à la consommation croient plus faiblement pour les ménages urbains, qui consomment davantage de produits industriels et des services, que pour les ménages ruraux, qui consomment plus de produits alimentaires. Tous ces résultats font que l'amélioration du revenu réel, qui touche toutes les catégories des ménages, est légèrement plus importante pour les ménages urbains.
    Keywords: Trade liberalization, poverty, dynamic CGE models, sequential microsimulation, Tunisia/Libéralisation des échanges, pauvreté, modèles d'EGC dynamiques, micro-simulation séquentielle, Tunisie
    JEL: C68 I32 O24
    Date: 2006
  6. By: Claude Wetta; Bernard Bonzi K.
    Abstract: L'instrument "dominance stochastique" a permis d'analyser la dynamique de la pauvreté au Burkina Faso sous ajustement structurel entre 1994 et 1998. Les politiques mises en oeuvre au cours des trois PAS ont poussé à un transfert de ressources vers les couches vulnérables et les plus pauvres localisés en zone rurale mais ces ressources n'ont pas été suffisantes pour réduire l'indice numérique de pauvreté (Po). La baisse de la profondeur de la pauvreté (P1) au niveau national montre que beaucoup de pauvres se sont plutôt rapprochés de la ligne de pauvreté. La croissance entre 1994 et 1998 a joué un rôle considérable dans l'évolution de la pauvreté au Burkina Faso. Par contre la redistribution a poussé à la hausse de la pauvreté nationale. Ce rôle régressif de la redistribution a renforcé la hausse de la pauvreté dans les grandes villes et atténué la baisse de la pauvreté dans les autres villes.
    Keywords: Pauvreté, inégalité, bien-être social, Burkina Faso, dynamique
    JEL: D31 D63 O15 O18 Q58
    Date: 2006

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