| Abstract: |
South-South trade agreements are proliferating: developing countries signed 70
new agreements between 1990 and 2003. Yet the impact of these agreements is
largely unknown. In this paper, we focus on the static effects of South-South
preferential trade agreements that take place through changes in trade
patterns. We estimate the impact of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern
Africa (COMESA) on Uganda's imports between 1994 and 2003. We use detailed
import and tariff data at the 6-digit Harmonized System level for over 1,000
commodities. Based on a difference-indifference estimation strategy, we find
evidence—in contrast to aggregate statistics—that COMESA’s preferential tariff
liberalization has not considerably increased Uganda’s trade with member
countries, on average across sectors. The effect, however, is heterogeneous
across sectors. Finally, we find no evidence of trade-diversion effects.
Classification-JEL Codes: F13, F14, F15, O24 |