nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2006‒04‒22
fourteen papers chosen by
Suzanne McCoskey
Foreign Service Institute, US Department of State

  1. Increasing access to infrastructure for Africa's rural poor By Torero, Maximo; Chowdhury, Shyamal
  2. Agricultural Reciprocity under Economic Partnership Agreements By Christopher Stevens; Jane Kennan
  3. Special and Differential Treatment for Agriculture: Africa's Requirements from Special Safeguards and Special Products By Christopher Stevens; Jane Kennan
  4. Evaluating the Trade and Welfare Effects of Developing RTAs By Souleymane COULIBALY
  5. Gouvernance, Démocratie et lutte contre la pauvreté en afrique : Expérience et point de vue de la population de huit métropoles Enquêtes 1-2-3, Premiers résultats By Mireille Razafindrakoto; François Roubaud
  6. Comment les femmes concilient-elles mariage et travail à Dakar et à Lomé ? By Agnès Adjamagbo; Philippe Antoine; Donatien Beguy; Fatou Binetou Dial
  7. Who carries the Burden of Reproductive Health and AIDS Programs? - Evidence from OECD Donor Countries By Hendrik P. van Dalen
  8. Wages and Human Capital in Exporting Firms in Morocco By Christophe Muller; Christophe Nordman
  9. Financial Contagion in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa By Thomas Lagoarde-Segot; Brian Lucey
  10. The Demand for Power Diffusion: A Case Study of the 2005 Constitutional Referendum Voting in Kenya By Mwangi S. Kimenyi
  11. The Dynamics of Income Diversification in Ethiopia: Evidence from Panel data By Adugna Lemi
  12. Country Size and the Rule of Law: Resuscitating Montesquieu By Hansson, Gustav; Olsson, Ola
  13. Fertility change in Egypt: from second to third birth By Daniele Vignoli
  14. Malthus in Rwanda? Scarcity, Survival and Causes of the Genocide By Yanagizawa, David

  1. By: Torero, Maximo; Chowdhury, Shyamal
    Keywords: Rural poor ,Poverty alleviation ,Public-private partnerships ,Markets ,
    Date: 2005
  2. By: Christopher Stevens; Jane Kennan
    Abstract: This paper investigates how the formation of Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) with the EU might affect the ability of the six Development Cooperation Ireland programme countries in Sub-Saharan Africa to continue to provide protection to their domestic agri-food sectors. Various scenarios are constructed on the assumption that ‘substantially all' trade with the EU must be liberalised if the EPAs are to be compatible with WTO rules on regional trade agreements. The paper concludes that EPAs are unlikely to require major changes in existing levels of border protection provided to domestic agriculture in Ethiopia, Lesotho, Mozambique and Zambia but that the effects on Tanzania and Uganda could be greater. It argues that the preparation of a ‘defensive' EPA strategy by these countries should occur in parallel with a strategic review of agricultural trade policy.
    Keywords: Economic Partnership Agreements, agriculture, reciprocity
    JEL: Q18 Q12
    Date: 2006–04–05
  3. By: Christopher Stevens; Jane Kennan
    Abstract: The 1 August 2004 Framework Agreement stated that developing countries would have access to a Special Safeguard Mechanism and Special Products designation as part of special and differential treatment within a new WTO Doha Round agricultural agreement. This was confirmed in the Ministerial Declaration following the WTO Hong Kong Ministerial in December 2005. This paper discusses the potential usefulness of these instruments for the six programme countries of Development Cooperation Ireland, and what further research is desirable to help countries define them in a way that maximises their usefulness.
    JEL: Q18 Q12
    Date: 2006–04–05
  4. By: Souleymane COULIBALY
    Abstract: Many recent papers have pointed to ambiguous trade effects of developing regional trade agreements, calling for a reassessment of their economic merits. We focus on six such agreements currently in force in Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and Latin America, estimating their impacts on trade flows and welfare. We combine a gravity model with kernel and bootstrap estimation techniques so as to capture the non-monotonic trade effects while imposing minimal structure. Instead of the usual dummy variables for RTAs, we propose a new variable, capturing the number of years of a country's RTA membership, and we adapt the framework proposed by Winters (1997) to relate trade effects to their welfare implications. The results indicate that only AFTA and MERCOSUR have induced positive trade and welfare effects. The remaining RTAs have produced mixed effects for their members.
    Keywords: regional trade agreement; kernel regression; bootstrap; welfare
    JEL: F11 F15 O50
    Date: 2006–04
  5. By: Mireille Razafindrakoto (DIAL, IRD, Paris); François Roubaud (DIAL, IRD, Paris)
    Abstract: (english) New factors such as governance, ownership and citizen’s participation are now a central focus of development programmes, especially in the scope of the new international poverty reduction strategies (PRSP and HIPC initiatives). To gain a better understanding of countries’ trajectories and their current economic situations, it is interesting to examine what used to be thought of as extra-economic dimensions such as subjective forms of poverty, quality of institutions (especially public institutions) and type of political regime or, more generally speaking, the society’s system of values. To meet this major challenge, we have explored the possibilities offered by household surveys as a tool for measuring these new aspects of development and for monitoring them in quantitative terms. Three specific modules (Multiple Dimensions of Poverty, Governance and Democracy) were added to the 1-2-3 surveys carried out in 2001, 2002 or 2003 in major cities in eight countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Madagascar, Mali, Niger, Senegal, Togo). This document presents a comprehensive, comparative analysis of the first results obtained using these theme-based modules. _________________________________ (français) Des facteurs comme la gouvernance, l’adhésion et la participation des populations sont dorénavant placés au coeur des programmes de développement, en particulier dans le cadre des nouvelles stratégies internationales de lutte contre la pauvreté (initiatives DSRP, PPTE). Pour mieux comprendre la trajectoire et la situation économique actuelle des pays, il convient de se pencher sur des dimensions auparavant considérées comme extra-économiques comme les formes subjectives de la pauvreté, la qualité des institutions (notamment publiques) et le type de régime politique ou plus généralement le système de valeurs de la société. Pour répondre à ce défi majeur, nous avons exploré les possibilités offertes par les enquêtes auprès des ménages en tant qu’instrument de mesure et de suivi quantitatif de ces nouvelles dimensions du développement. Trois modules spécifiques (« Multiples dimensions de la Pauvreté », « Gouvernance » et « Démocratie ») ont été greffés sur les enquêtes 1-2-3 réalisées en 2001, 2002 ou 2003 dans les métropoles de huit pays (Bénin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Madagascar, Mali, Niger, Sénégal, Togo). Ce document présente de façon complète, et dans une perspective comparative, l’ensemble des premiers résultats tirés de ces modules thématiques.
    Keywords: Poverty, subjective well-being, governance, democracy, participation, institutions,Africa,Pauvreté, bien-être subjectif, Gouvernance, Démocratie, Participation, Institutions, Afrique.
    JEL: O55 H11 H83 D73 I31
    Date: 2005–12
  6. By: Agnès Adjamagbo (Laboratoire Population-Environnement-Développement,UMR IRD-Université de Provence 151); Philippe Antoine (DIAL, IRD, Dakar); Donatien Beguy (DIAL, IRD, Dakar); Fatou Binetou Dial (DIAL, IRD, Dakar)
    Abstract: (english) Women’s disadvantaged position in the labour market can be explained by conflicts between their roles in exercising an economic activity and in assuming their domestic activities. Husbands’ insufficient or inexistent income has increased women’s role in household survival strategies, but their participation does not have the same sociological meaning in Dakar as it does in Lomé. When women in Dakar take part in an economic activity outside the domestic sphere this clashes with the tenacious model of a clear separation in husbands and wives’ roles, and with the ideal of wives dependency on their husbands. In contrast, in Lomé, although women’s economic independence has been part of the conjugal norm for quite some time, this is tending to be observed more and more frequently outside the formal framework of marriage. In both cases, the fact that women are increasingly called on to find extra income has implications on their family lives. _________________________________ (français) La position défavorable des femmes sur le marché du travail peut s’expliquer par un conflit de rôles entre l'exercice d'une activité économique et les activités familiales qui leur incombent. L’insuffisance ou l’absence de revenu du mari ont accru le rôle des femmes dans la stratégie de survie des ménages, mais leur participation ne revêt pas le même sens sociologique à Dakar et à Lomé. Pour les Dakaroises, l’exercice d’une activité économique hors de la sphère domestique se heurte au modèle tenace d’une forte séparation des rôles entre les conjoints et de l’idéal de la dépendance financière de l’épouse vis-à-vis du mari. À Lomé, par contre, si la norme conjugale intègre depuis longtemps l’indépendance économique des femmes, celle-ci tend à s’exprimer de plus en plus hors des cadres formels du mariage. Ainsi, dans un cas comme dans l’autre, la sollicitation accrue des femmes à la recherche de revenus a des implications sur leur vie familiale.
    Keywords: Gender, Women, Employment, Marriage, Family, Town, Africa, Togo, Senegal,Genre, Femmes, Emploi, Mariage, Famille, Ville, Afrique.
    JEL: J12 J16
    Date: 2006–03
  7. By: Hendrik P. van Dalen (Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam, and NIDI, The Hague)
    Abstract: This paper tries to establish who carries the burden in supporting reproductive health and AIDS programs worldwide. The 1994 International Conference of Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo established goals for the expansion of assistance in matters of reproductive health and AIDS. This global effort has so far not sufficiently been supported by funds and this paper looks at what lies behind the level of funds and the sharing of financial burdens. Panel data on expenditures for population and AIDS activities funded by 21 donor countries for the years 1983-2002 are examined by means of dynamic panel data estimation. On an aggregated scale small donors 'exploit' the large donors: large donors give more resources than their 'fair share', i.e. their income weight in the group of donors. However, this picture is not true for the finance and support for multilateral organizations where every donor country pays its fair share. The exploitation hypothesis is true for the cases of bilateral aid and NGOs. The exploitation model gives however a partial view of what determines the sharing of burdens. To understand burden sharing across countries fully one needs to take account of the most dominant religions in a country, the pro-foreign aid stance of a government and the government size. Donor countries are not much affected in their funding behavior by the state of development of the least developed countries.
    Keywords: Foreign aid; donors; health; HIV/AIDS; global collective action; free rider
    JEL: D74 F35 D78 O19
  8. By: Christophe Muller (Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico Universidad de Alicante, Campus de San Vicente); Christophe Nordman (DIAL, IRD, Paris)
    Abstract: (english) We study the relationship between wages, human capital accumulation and work organisation in Morocco using matched worker-firm data for Metallurgical-electrical and Textile-clothing firms. While wages are found to rise with all human capital characteristics, returns to education and experience are much higher for the upper wages. Participation in on-the-job training is constrained by: a relevant industrial location; a minimal educational background; and an appropriate family situation. Moreover, work organisation and on-the-job training are dependent on the education process. Finally, we find strong interactions of human capital accumulation with involvement in chain gangs, team work and supervision. _________________________________ (français) Nous étudions le lien entre salaires, accumulation du capital humain et organisation du travail au Maroc en utilisant une enquête couplant des informations sur les entreprises et les employés de deux secteurs manufacturiers. Bien que les salaires soient sensibles à toutes les variables de capital humain, les rendements de l’éducation et de l’expérience sont beaucoup plus élevés pour les travailleurs à hauts revenus. La participation à la formation sur le tas du travailleur est favorisée par son secteur d’appartenance, son niveau d’éducation et sa situation familiale lorsqu’elle est favorable. De plus, l’organisation des tâches sur le lieu de travail (à la chaîne, en équipe) découle aussi du niveau de capital humain des salariés.
    Keywords: Africa, Morocco, Wages, On-the-job training, Human capital, Workplace organisation,Matched worker-firm data, Maroc, Salaires, Formation sur le tas, Capital humain, Organisation du travail, Données liées employeurs-employés.
    JEL: J24 J31 O12
    Date: 2006–03
  9. By: Thomas Lagoarde-Segot; Brian Lucey
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to investigate vulnerability to financial contagion in a set of expanding emerging markets of the Middle East and North Africa, during seven episodes of international financial crisis. Using Fry & Baur (2005) fixed-effect panel approach, we significantly reject the hypothesis of a joint regional contagion. However, using a battery of bivariate contagion tests based on Forbes and Rigobon (2002), Corsetti (2002), and Favero and Giavazzi (2002), we find evidence that each of the investigated markets suffered from contagion at least once out of the seven investigated crises. In conformity with the literature, our results suggest that the probability of being affected by contagion seems to increase as the MENA markets develop in size and liquidity, and become more integrated to the world’s markets.
    Keywords: Note: Length:
    Date: 2006–04–05
  10. By: Mwangi S. Kimenyi (University of Connecticut)
    Abstract: Recent studies on the history of economic development demonstrate that concentration of power on a monarch or a ruling coalition impedes economic growth and that institutional changes that diffuse power, though beneficial to the society in general, are opposed by some social groups. In November 2005, Kenyans rejected a proposed constitution primarily because it did not reduce the powers of the executive to any significant degree. Using data of voting patterns in the constitutional referendum and following the rational choice framework, I estimate a model of the demand for power diffusion and demonstrate that groups voting decisions depend on expected gains and likelihood of monopolizing power. The results also reveal the importance of ethnic divisions in hindering the power diffusion process, and therefore the study establishes a channel through which ethnic fragmentation impacts on economic development.
    JEL: D72
    Date: 2006–04
  11. By: Adugna Lemi
    Abstract: Block and Webb (2001) in food policy address the issue of the dynamics of livelihood diversification in Ethiopia. Their study uses the ratio of per capita income derived from crops to the sum of all other incomes as an indicator of livelihood diversification for the years 1989 and 1994. Their study focuses only on drought-prone areas during the survey years. The aim of the present study is to explore further the demographic and economic determinants of the dynamics of income diversification using survey data. The data used in this study cover larger and more representative sample and was colleted from rural Ethiopia during 1994 and 1997 harvest years. This study investigates not only the determinants of participation and intensity of off-farm activities, but also factors that affect the dynamics between 1994 and 1997. The results of this study attempt to answer the question: to what extent initial conditions (for instance, asset holdings, production, and crop income) prompt households to diversify to off-farm activities overtime. The results show that participation in off-farm activities is mainly driven by demographic factors, whereas land and other asset ownership as well as crop production and income affect intensity of off-farm activities. The dynamic model results show that farm families who have initially diversified to more off-farm activities subsequently realized less income diversification. Families with more initial crop production from slack harvest season subsequently realized greater income from off-farm activities in 1997. The study also confirms that it is only during slack harvest season that off-farm and on-farm activities are complement each other.
    Keywords: Dynamic Livelihood, Off-farm Income, Diversification, Ethiopia
    JEL: D1 J2
  12. By: Hansson, Gustav (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Olsson, Ola (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)
    Abstract: The political and economic impact of country size has been a frequently discussed issue in social science. In accordance with the general hypothesis of Montesquieu, this paper demonstrates that there is a robust negative relationship between the size of country territory and a measure of the rule of law for a large cross-section of countries. We propose that there are two main reasons for this regularity; firstly that institutional quality often has the character of a local public good that is imperfectly spread across space from the capital to the hinterland, and secondly that a large territory usually is accompanied by valuable rents that tend to distort property rights institutions. Our empirical analysis further shows that whether the capital is centrally or peripherally located within the country matters for the average level of rule of law. <p>
    Keywords: country size; rule of law; institutions; development; Montesquieu
    JEL: N40 N50 P33
    Date: 2006–03–28
  13. By: Daniele Vignoli (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: Fertility patterns in countries on the northern shore of the Mediterranean have lowest-low fertility and are very different from those in the South-East of the basin. Recently, however, fertility decline has been spreading rapidly in the latter region. This paper focuses on Egypt, a country that notwithstanding an advanced stage of socio-demographic transition has shown near stagnation in the reduction of fertility levels in the last decade. The first phase of the fertility transition generally has been marked by an increase in the age at marriage; in the long run, however, it will be the diffusion of the smaller family that plays the major role in countries of advanced transition, such as Egypt. The study aims at analyzing the main determinants of the third-birth intensities of Egyptian two-child mothers, applying event-history analysis to the most recent retrospective survey data available for the country. The study’s results show that there are still persistent fertility differential among the country’s social groups. The diffusion of urban-type norms, however, makes crowded and complex household types less feasible to maintain, possibly leading to a convergence in fertility levels to the northern Mediterranean countries. The study also reveals that the preference for a son is weakening among women who have completed secondary education. The findings point to a further decline in the number of large families in the near future; a decline that is intimately associated with the current fertility transition and the promotion of female emancipation.
    Keywords: Egypt, fertility
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2006–04
  14. By: Yanagizawa, David (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)
    Abstract: This paper does two things. First, it develops a game theoretical model over population groups that struggle for their survival under Malthusian conditions where renewable natural resources are scarce. Building on three stylized facts, the model includes two rather obvious, but in the theoretical literature neglected, strategies - survival by migration and, once a conflict is ignited, survival by taking refuge. Results include that unless there is a combination in which resource scarcity is particularly severe, migration opportunities are relatively slim, the infrastructure for persecuted refugees is good, property rights are weak or nonexistent, we can expect peace. Second, it explores the necessary and sufficient conditions for a genocide developed by the model in order to analyze the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. It suggests that the Hutu extremist regime that seized power on April 6th 1994, being on a genocide agenda, exploited the underlying resource scarce conditions by way of forcefully destroying property rights and massively support appropriative actions, thereby causing the killings and persecutions of Tutsis on the scale of a genocide. Finally, the key to understanding the scope of the genocide in 1994, is suggested to be that the extremist regime was not only actively weakening property rights, but the simultaneous and deliberate destroying of the refugee infrastructure. This can explain the difference to earlier violent conflict periods of smaller scope, as it was a necessary and central factor in making the 1994 genocide possible. <p>
    Keywords: Genocide; Conflict; Rwanda; Resource Scarcity; Malthus
    JEL: D74 N47 Q29
    Date: 2006–03–28

This nep-afr issue is ©2006 by Suzanne McCoskey. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.