nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2005‒02‒06
five papers chosen by
Suzanne McCoskey
US Naval Academy

  1. A Macroeconomic Framework for Quantifying Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategies in Niger By Emmanuel Pinto Moreira; Nihal Bayraktar
  2. Bank Privatization and Performance: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria By Thorsten Beck; Robert Cull; Afeikhena Jerome
  3. Core Inflation and Inflation Targeting in a Developing Economy By Luis A. Rivas
  4. Interactions between the Agricultural Sector and the HIV/AIDS Pandemic: Implications for Agricultural Policy By Thomas S. Jayne; Marcela Villarreal; Prabhu Pingali; Gunter Hemrich
  5. Water Pricing as a Tool for Integrated Water Resource Management: A Synthesis of Key Issues for Rural West Africa By Alyse Schrecongost; John Staatz; Boubacar Diallo; Mbaye Yade

  1. By: Emmanuel Pinto Moreira; Nihal Bayraktar
    Abstract: The authors apply the dynamic macroeconomic framework developed by Agénor, Bayraktar, and El Aynaoui (2004) to Niger. As in the original model, linkages between foreign aid, public investment (disaggregated into education, infrastructure, and health), and growth are explicitly captured. Although the nominal exchange rate is fixed, the relative price of domestic goods is endogenous, thereby allowing for potential Dutch disease effects associated with increases in aid. The authors assess the impact of policy shocks on poverty by using partial growth elasticities. They perform various policy experiments, including an increase in the level of foreign aid, a reallocation of public nvestment toward infrastructure, and neutral and non-neutral cuts in tariffs. The simulations show the dynamic tradeoffs that these policies entail with respect to growth and poverty reduction in Niger. This paper—a product of Poverty Reduction and Economic Management 3, Africa Technical Families—is part of a larger effort in the region to formulate country-specific growth strategies.
    Keywords: Macroecon & Growth
    Date: 2005–01–31
  2. By: Thorsten Beck (World Bank); Robert Cull (World Bank); Afeikhena Jerome
    Abstract: Beck, Cull, and Jerome assess the effect of privatization on performance in a panel of Nigerian banks for the period 1990–2001. They find evidence of performance improvement in nine banks that were privatized, which is remarkable given the inhospitable environment for true financial intermediation. Their results also suggest negative effects of the continuing minority government ownership on the performance of many Nigerian banks. The authors’ results complement aggregate indications of decreasing financial intermediation over the 1990s. Banks that focused on investment in government bonds and non-lending activities enjoyed a relatively higher performance. This paper—a product of the Finance Team, Development Research Group—is part of a larger effort in the group to study the effects of bank privatization in developing countries.
    Keywords: Domestic Finance
    Date: 2005–02–03
  3. By: Luis A. Rivas (Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University and Banco Central de Nicaragua)
    Abstract: This paper is concerned with inflation targeting as a potential monetary policy objective in a developing economy. Using data from Nicaragua, it first studies the extent to which the Consumer Price Index (CPI) could be used to formulate short-run inflation targets. It is found that due to the particular cross-sectional properties of the relative-price distributions, the rate of change in the CPI may not be the best index for this purpose. As a consequence, the paper is also concerned with the choice of alternative indicators of inflation and their statistical properties. These alternative measures are ranked according to their ability to forecast the rate of change in the price level. Finally, the relationship between the dispersion and skewness of the relative-price distribution and generalized inflation is studied using time series analysis.
    Keywords: Core inflation, developing economies, forecasting, monetary policy, price index, tiem-series
    JEL: C22 C43 E31 E37 E52 O23 O54
    Date: 2003–05
  4. By: Thomas S. Jayne (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Marcela Villarreal; Prabhu Pingali; Gunter Hemrich
    Abstract: This work considers how the design of agricultural policies and programmes might be modified to better achieve policy objectives in the context of countries with severe HIV epidemics and underscores the central role of agricultural policy in mitigating the spread and impacts of the epidemic.
    Keywords: food security, food policy, agricultural policy, HIV/AIDS, structural transformation, production factors
    JEL: Q18 J43 O12
    Date: 2004
  5. By: Alyse Schrecongost (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); John Staatz; Boubacar Diallo; Mbaye Yade
    Abstract: This synthesis provides an overview of: (1) the objectives of water pricing as a tool for rural water resource management; (2) the characteristics of different water pricing strategies; and (3) some requirements for, and economic constraints to, the implementation of water pricing policies in rural West Africa.
    Keywords: food security, food policy, water pricing, water resource management
    JEL: Q25
    Date: 2004

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