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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Kosuke Aoki (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo, JAPAN); Alan Auerbach (Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, U.S.A. and National Bureau of Economic Research, U.S.A.); Charles Yuji Horioka (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, Asian Growth Research Institute, JAPAN, and National Bureau of Economic Research, U.S.A.); Anil Kashyap (University of Chicago Booth School of Business, U.S.A. and National Bureau of Economic Research, U.S.A.); Tsutomu Watanabe (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo, JAPAN); David Weinstein (Department of Economics, Columbia University, U.S.A. and National Bureau of Economic Research, U.S.A.) |
| Abstract: | Takatoshi Ito, who passed away in September 2025, was a leading scholar of macroeconomics and international finance. This column, written by a group of friends and colleagues, outlines his many contributions in a lifetime of research, teaching and policy-making in Japan, the United States and around the world. His work is particularly notable for challenging the widespread perception that standard economic analysis is somehow ill-suited for understanding the Japanese economy. Indeed, using the discipline's rigorous tools, he illuminated challenges that Japan faced earlier and more acutely than other countries – including population decline and ageing, ballooning government debt, the zero lower bound and unconventional monetary policies, real estate bubbles and their collapse, and the banking sector's problem of non-performing loans. |
| Keywords: | Asian economies; Exchange rate fluctuations; Foreign exchange intervention; Inflation targeting; International finance; Invoicing currency; Japanese economy; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Takatoshi Ito; Zero interest rate policy |
| JEL: | E52 E58 F14 F31 G15 O53 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2025-29 |
| By: | Elkhateeb, Yasmine (J-PAL MENA); Turati, Riccardo (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona); Valette, Jérôme (CEPII, Paris) |
| Abstract: | Does immigration challenge the identities, values, and cultural diversity of receiving societies? This paper addresses this question by analyzing the impact of immigration on cultural diversity in Europe between 2004 and 2018. It combines regional cultural diversity indices derived from the European Social Survey with immigration shares from the European Labor Force Survey. The results indicate that immigration increases the salience of birthplace identity along cultural lines, fostering a shift toward nativist identities among the native population. These identity shifts, in turn, trigger a process of cultural homogenization among natives. This effect is stronger in regions receiving culturally distant immigrants. It reflects a process of convergence toward the values of highly skilled liberal natives and divergence from those of low-skilled conservative immigrants. |
| Keywords: | cultural diversity, social identity, immigration |
| JEL: | F22 D03 D72 Z10 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18261 |
| By: | Uzma Zia (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics) |
| Abstract: | Savings play an essential role in economic growth and development as it provides resources for investment and financial stability. Pakistan, like many developing economies, faces challenges in promoting a robust savings culture. This study examines key determinants of savings behaviour, including macroeconomic factors, fiscal policies, interest rates, inflation, remittances, and religious beliefs. Findings suggest that enhancing financial literacy, offering tax incentives, and ensuring economic stability can boost savings. Policies to manage inflation and improve real interest rates are vital for encouraging household savings. The study also highlights theoretical insights, such as the Harrod-Domar model and the Permanent Income Hypothesis, underscoring the link between savings, investment, and long-term growth. To enhance savings, the government should adopt both short- and long-term initiatives, such as expanding financial literacy programs and promoting investment-oriented savings schemes. Tax and duty reductions for productive industries for encouragement may lead to higher savings. Ensuring financial stability, controlling inflation, and strengthening institutions are important for building saver`s confidence. Similarly, higher real interest rates encourage savings while inflation erodes their value emphasising effective inflation management essential for to build saving culture in Pakistan. As controlling inflation remains a key policy objective of URAAN project, this study indicates that higher savings are possible with decline in inflation in Pakistan. Consequently, an increase in savings is expected as inflation decreases. Moreover, higher savings can support the government in achieving its economic growth targets. |
| Keywords: | Harrod-Domar Model, Permanent Income Hypothesis, Savers Confidence, Savings Behaviour, Savings Culture, URAAN |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2025:5 |
| By: | Lewis, Vivien; Puangjit, Sirikorn |
| Abstract: | Geopolitical risk (GPR) shocks that trigger the imposition of sanctions tend to lower output and raise inflation in the sanctioned country. We develop a three-equation small open economy New Keynesian model where GPR shocks are modeled as negative productivity shocks and sanctions manifest as import tariffs in response to GPR increases. We calibrate the GPR process, sanction rule, and interest rate rule to match the observed dynamics of the GPR index, output, inflation, and the policy rate in Russian data. The sanction response to GPR allows the resulting model to capture the empirical impulse responses well. Additionally, we find that Russia's monetary policy rule is more accommodative than prescribed by the standard Taylor rule. While this may reflect policy preferences, recent theoretical results indicate that such a policy stance may be optimal when sanctions act as cost-push shocks that shift the Phillips Curve. |
| Keywords: | geopolitical risk, monetary policy, New Keynesian model, sanctions |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E58 F42 F51 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:331886 |
| By: | Mgomezulu, Wisdom Richard; Machila, Kennedy; Edriss, Abdi-Khalil; Pangapanga-Phiri, Innocent |
| Abstract: | Different scholars have modelled the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices (SAPs) with a goal of improving farmer’s adaptive capacity to climate change. Nonetheless, through the conventional way of defining adoption decisions as one-time survey decisions, many scholars have failed to understand inconsistencies in adoption decisions and dis-adoption of such practices. Through a survey of 2100 maize farming households, the current study employed multivariate probit models to understand and compare one-time survey season adoption decisions and sustained (consistent) adoption decisions. The study notes that dis-adoption rates of SAPs range from 20 to 27 percent. As such, the determinants of dis-adoption were estimated to build a case for going beyond one-time adoption survey decisions. Furthermore, the study employed a Cox Proportional hazard model to understand the relative risk to adoption of Sustainable Agricultural Practices over time. The findings reveal the need for a modelling paradigm shift in understanding adoption decisions for sustainable benefits. Lastly, the findings reveal the need for intensifying knowledge and information dissemination on SAPs through field demonstrations, extension visits, trainings and radio programs in order to reduce dis-adoption and ensure sustained adoption. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344289 |
| By: | Artta, Katja (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Nessén, Marianne (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Vredin, Anders (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Savoia, Ettore (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden) |
| Abstract: | We examine how central bank foreign exchange (FX) operations affect nominal exchange rates by exploiting two large operations by Sveriges Riksbank: foreign currency purchases during 2021–2022 and domestic Swedish krona (SEK) purchases—that is, FX forward sales— during 2023–2024. Using daily data and local projections, we identify unanticipated operation shocks to the SEK against the euro (EUR) and the U.S. dollar (USD). On average, we observe sign consistency—depreciation during FX purchases and appreciation during SEK purchases. Three main results emerge: (i) effects unfold gradually but fade quickly, becoming statistically insignificant after about ten trading days; (ii) they are regimedependent, with FX purchases inducing larger depreciations and domestic currency purchase yielding smaller, delayed appreciations; and (iii) FX purchases generate long-run (11-60 days) currency-specific effects, with a stronger SEK depreciation against the EUR relative to the USD. However, results are more uniform across currencies in the short run (1–10 days) and throughout the domestic currency purchase period. |
| Keywords: | Foreign exchange operations; Local Projections; exchange rates |
| JEL: | E58 F31 F33 |
| Date: | 2025–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0456 |
| By: | Harun Tanrivermis; Monsurat Ayojimi Salami |
| Abstract: | Housing affordability has been a significant global challenge, with macroeconomic factors identified as contributors. The ongoing trend of housing unaffordability indicates that merely recognising this issue is insufficient; it necessitates the formulation of appropriate policies to tackle these challenges. This study examines the rising trend of housing unaffordability, although shelter is a fundamental amenity that should be adequately addressed. Furthermore, uncertainty inherent in the country’s economy has exacerbated the situation. This study will adopt a quantitative approach, using the housing price index as the dependent variable. Independent variables will include inflation, exchange rate, policy interest rate, economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index, unemployment rate, mortgage rate, age of a house, number of bedrooms, economic growth rate - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), construction permits, and money supply. The study will employ the VAR model to establish relationships between the house price index (HPI) and macroeconomic variables through shocks. The magnitude and direction of these shocks will form the basis for deriving necessary policy suggestions to address housing unaffordability in Turkey. Consequently, the findings are anticipated to pave the way for policy recommendations to overcome these challenges. |
| Keywords: | Housing Affordability; Macroeconomic variables; Turkish housing markets; VAR modelling |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_286 |
| By: | Rodriguez-Pose Andrés; Dijkstra Lewis (European Commission - JRC); Dorati Chiara (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Over the past two decades, support for Eurosceptic parties has climbed from fringe to nearly one third of voters. Promising renewed prosperity through less European integration, these parties imply Euroscepticism is a ‘free lunch.’ Drawing on an original panel of 1, 166 European NUTS 3 regions (2004 2023) and using fixed , random effects, and difference in differences designs, we test how rising Euroscepticism connects with regional economic and demographic outcomes. We track GDP per capita, productivity, employment, and population growth. We find that a region 10 points more Eurosceptic than another could have ended up with GDP per capita roughly 5% lower than the less Eurosceptic region, as the negative economic influence of Euroscepticism compounds across cycles and intensified after the financial and austerity crises. The same applies for productivity and employment. Demographic impacts are smaller but point in the same direction. Even without governing, Eurosceptic support appears to deter investment and raise uncertainty, deepening the very stagnation that fuels discontent. There is no free lunch: political backlash against European integration carries measurable costs for the regions that embrace it. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:termod:202509 |
| By: | Brun Lidia (European Commission - JRC); Stoehlker Daniel (European Commission - JRC); Pycroft Jonathan; Van't Riet Maarten |
| Abstract: | "We assess the welfare implications of the Global Minimum Tax (GMT) on corporate income in a multi-country macroeconomic model. The objectives of the GMT are to mitigate harmful tax competition and to curb wasteful profit shifting. The theoretical literature suggests that the welfare effects of the GMT are ambiguous. It contributes positively to welfare by improving tax revenues and limiting profit shifting; however, it may also raise firms' capital costs, exerting a contractionary effect on the economy. Using our applied model, we combine all these effects to produce numerical welfare results, creating what we believe is the first comprehensive and quantitative welfare assessment of the GMT. We simulate the implementation of a GMT of 15 percent by all countries in our model, which are the 27 EU Member States, the US, the UK, Japan, and a tax haven. We measure the welfare change in two scenarios. In the first, additional corporate income tax (CIT) revenues are redistributed as direct transfers to households. This produces mixed welfare results across countries, while the global welfare impact is slightly positive. In the second, additional CIT revenues are redistributed back to firms as lower CIT rates, provided that the rate remains at or above the GMT rate. In most countries, the reduction in the cost of capital from a lower CIT rate more than offsets the increase caused by reduced profit shifting, stimulating economic activity. Positive welfare outcomes are widely, though not universally, experienced, leading to a modest increase in global welfare. We investigate the impact of alternative GMT rates, finding that a 16 percent GMT rate yields the highest level of global welfare in our model." |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:taxref:202504 |
| By: | William D. Savedoff (Senior partner, Social Insight) |
| Abstract: | Africa and Latin America are the world regions most dependent on importing vaccines. Though they differ demographically, economically, politically, and historically, many of the issues they face when seeking to promote vaccine production are similar. In this regard, they have much to learn from each other in terms of options and strategies. After characterizing the relevant differences and similarities between the two regions, this paper argues that negotiating and implementing regional agreements is the most reliable way for each region to promote vaccine production compared to alternatives. It describes some of the more prominent regional vaccine initiatives that are underway and outlines options for governing such arrangements based on regional experiences inside and outside health. The paper argues that the most significant obstacle to promoting vaccine production is effective demand because most countries are too small on their own to support the scale required to motivate and sustain production. In addition, the prospects for regional or subregional agreements to assure producers that there will be sustained demand for their vaccines are unlikely due to the difficulties of establishing binding international pacts to pool purchasing in sufficient volumes. A second critical obstacle is an adequate number of individuals with the requisite skills for biomedical research, development, and manufacturing. Finally, without a high-quality and efficient regulatory systems, it is difficult for countries to assure vaccine quality, let alone attract private investors. The paper concludes by reviewing some common strategies for promoting vaccine production, including actions on the demand side, supply interventions, and institutional factors. It considers the advantages of regional agreements and discusses characteristics for such agreements that are important to their success. |
| Date: | 2025–11–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:368 |
| By: | Hanno Foerster (Boston College); Robert Ulbricht (Boston College) |
| Abstract: | We develop a spatial directed search model to study job search and migration among dual-earner households. Using the model, we decompose observed gender gaps into exogenous gender differences, which are amplified by a “colocation friction” that is unique to dual-earner households. Estimated for the U.S. labor market, the colocation friction reduces women’s long-term migration gains by 19% and discourages mobility, particularly among “power couples”. The rise of remote work mitigates this friction, cutting average earnings losses by up to 50%. |
| Keywords: | dual-earner job search, gender inequality, migration, remote work, search friction |
| JEL: | E24 J16 J61 J64 |
| Date: | 2025–11–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:1103 |
| By: | Craig Haberstumpf; Anita Pennathur |
| Abstract: | We investigate the Equity Duration Hypothesis (EDH) utilizing dividend yield as a proxy for Equity Duration (ED) in the context of real estate investment trusts (REITs). Consistent with prior research, we find abundant evidence supporting the expectations of the EDH, i.e., that dividend yield has a negative correlation with volatility. However, we also find overwhelming contradictory and ambiguous evidence indicating that a previously strong negative relationship has disappeared, and a strengthening positive one has emerged. Although we found payers to be consistently less volatile than the very small number of nonpayers, the relationship between volatility and dividend yield appears unstable across time periods and within portfolios sorted on size, style, and other factors. Our results varied based on the measurement of dividend yield, with a more restrictive measure containing only regular quarterly dividends delivering results more supportive of the EDH than those of more inclusive measures. |
| Keywords: | dividend policy; REITs; Volatility |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_188 |
| By: | Ping Wu; Dan Zhu |
| Abstract: | Financial markets are interconnected, with micro-currents propagating across global markets and shaping economic trends. This paper moves beyond traditional stock market indices to examine cross-sectional return distributions-15 in our empirical application, each representing a distinct global market. To facilitate this analysis, we develop a matrix functional VAR method with interpretable factors extracted from cross-sectional return distributions. Our approach extends the existing framework from modeling a single function to multiple functions, allowing for a richer representation of cross-sectional dependencies. By jointly modeling these distributions with U.S. macroeconomic indicators, we uncover the predictive power of financial market in forecasting macro-economic dynamics. Our findings reveal that U.S. contractionary monetary policy not only lowers global stock returns, as traditionally understood, but also dampens cross-sectional return kurtosis, highlighting an overlooked policy transmission. This framework enables conditional forecasting, equipping policymakers with a flexible tool to assess macro-financial linkages under different economic scenarios. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.17140 |
| By: | Xun (Grace) Gong; Ziqi Qiao; Randall Wright |
| Abstract: | This essay surveys the literature on middlemen—i.e., intermediation in exchange—reviewing, extending and consolidating key developments in the field. This is important because intermediated trade is common in reality but absent in standard general equilibrium theory. We focus on research using search theory. In various models, agents may act as middlemen when they are good at search, bargaining, recognizing quality, storing inventories, using credit, etc. The theory applies to markets for goods, inputs or assets. We discuss versions with indivisible or divisible goods, fixed or endogenous participation, stationary and dynamic equilibria, and some implications for efficiency and volatility. |
| JEL: | D0 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34477 |
| By: | Bretislav Andrlik (Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic); Stanislav Mokry (Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic); Petr David (Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | Research shows that eye-tracking can reveal which parts of documents attract the most attention and which are frequently overlooked. This method thus offers the public sector an opportunity to optimize form design, enhance efficiency, and reduce administrative burden. The integration of neuroscientific tools into public administration could significantly improve user-friendliness and process efficiency. The authors’ findings confirm that eye-tracking and pupillometry are effective instruments for quantifying administrative burden during the completion of tax forms. The experiment demonstrated the ability of these technologies to objectively capture differences in time, attention allocation, and mental workload across various sections of the form. Mechanical sections, such as the transcription of identification data, exhibited lower cognitive demands, yet still generated high pupillometric values. Pupillometric analysis identified two peaks in mental load upon entering the calculation section and during the actual tax liability computation. |
| Keywords: | eye-tracking, pupillometry, tax forms, cognitive load, neuroscience technology, administrative costs |
| JEL: | H23 H25 M39 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:men:wpaper:107_2025 |
| By: | Yuta Kuroda; Shinpei Sano |
| Abstract: | This study examines the potential of mobile phone location data for measuring working hours. We compare hourly population estimates from Mobile Spatial Statistics with card-reader attendance records of teachers at Japanese public high schools. The analysis shows a strong correlation between location-based indicators and actual working hours. Mobile data provide more accurate proxies in areas with few residents, where background noise is limited, and in schools with many employees. These results suggest that large-scale mobility data can serve as a valuable resource for labor research when direct administrative records are not accessible. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:toh:dssraa:149 |
| By: | Gonzalez Vazquez Ignacio (European Commission - JRC); Fernandez Macias Enrique (European Commission - JRC); Wright Sally; Villani Davide (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | This report presents new evidence on the platformisation of work in the European Union, examining the prevalence and potential impacts of digital tools, digital monitoring and algorithmic management. The report is based on data from the new AIM-WORK survey, conducted in 2024-2025 and representative of the working age population in all 27 EU Member States. The data reveals that over 90% of EU workers use digital devices, with the use of AI tools at work, particularly AI chatbots powered by Large Language Models, rising rapidly: on average, a third of EU workers report using AI for work-related purposes. Digital monitoring is common, particularly for working hours and entry or exit. Algorithmic management is less prevalent but also quite significant, taking diverse forms, including automated task allocation and performance evaluation. We identify two distinct types of platformisation, typical respectively of industrial and office workplaces. Our evidence indicates that some types of platformisation have no significant implications for working conditions. However, the full platformisation of work, which includes simultaneously all the forms of digital monitoring and algorithmic management that we identify on the basis of the data, is associated with generally worse working conditions. This applies also to the forms of platformisation more prevalent in manual work settings. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc143072 |
| By: | William Brock; Anastasios Xepapadeas |
| Abstract: | This paper puts forth a growth model that takes into account the fact that the economy is embedded in a finite Earth. Economic activity uses services which are provided by the biosphere; however, this supply is finite. The question we explore in this paper is whether ideas that drive the accumulation of "brown" and "green" R&D that produces material goods which could be biosphere using or biosphere saving can provide persistent growth when the whole system is embedded in a finite Earth. Or, to put it differently, whether it is possible to have persistent growth supported by idea-driven technical change without violating the impact inequality proposed by Dasgupta (2021), which compares global demand for services provided by the biosphere to the supply of these services. We develop optimal time allocation models and provide conditions that support the feasibility of growth when the net impact on biosphere is zero. |
| Keywords: | growth, limits, biosphere, impact inequality, biosphere saving technology, combination of ideas, spillovers |
| JEL: | O44 J13 Q01 |
| Date: | 2025–11–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2564 |
| By: | Ka Man Leung; Yu Cheung Wong; Kin Kwok Lai; Dah Ming Chiu |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a pioneer longitudinal rental analysis of sub-divided units (SDUs) in Hong Kong, employing first-hand data collected from surveys conducted across five time points between 2017 and 2023. Five widely used machine learning algorithms, multiple linear regression, random forest, decision tree, support vector regression and gradient boosting algorithm, are employed. This study aims to identify the key factors influencing the SDU rental values, focusing on variables including physical facilities, locational characteristics, and temporal trends. The longitudinal nature of the data allows for an examination of how rental values have changed over time. As SDU data with detailed internal characteristics are not publicly available, this study provides timely information and insights for the informal housing market and social welfare policy development, contributing to informed decision-making in addressing housing challenges. |
| Keywords: | Informal Housing; rental analyses; sub-divided units; time series analysis |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_137 |
| By: | Kennedy, Gerard (Central Bank of Ireland); O’Gorman, Cillian (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | Notwithstanding some recent signs of stabilisation, Dublin’s office market has been amongst the hardest hit across Europe in terms of decrease in capital values, fall-off in investment and the rise in vacancy rates since the start of the decade. The extent of the slowdown, however, has not been as sharp as in some large US cities. Using an enhanced methodological framework to project short-run vacancy rates, the central scenario for the Dublin office vacancy rate is a marginal rise to just over 19 per cent in 2026 before falling back below end of 2024 levels (18.6 per cent) by the end of 2027. A scenario based on a more benign set of assumptions suggests that the Dublin office vacancy rate may have already peaked, while the more adverse case sees a return to levels last seen around the time of the Irish property market collapse in 2009. In contrast to the 2009 episode, any further significant increase in office vacancy would occur against a markedly different CRE landscape, where current risks are much less concentrated within the domestic financial system. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:stafin:9/si/25 |
| By: | Ragnar Juelsrud; Plamen Nenov; Fabienne Schneider; Olav Syrstad |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study the cross-section of equilibrium returns on safe assets using a tractable asset pricing model with a micro-founded demand for liquidity and multiple safe assets with heterogeneous transaction costs. A key feature of our model is the “value of convenience, ” which is an equilibrium object that measures the level of liquidity risk-sharing in the economy. Changes in asset supply or the transaction cost of a single safe asset affect aggregate liquidity and the returns of all assets. The model features a pecuniary externality, which investors fail to internalize when forming their portfolios and which impacts equilibrium welfare. Therefore, policies that increase the payoff on the most liquid asset improve welfare in the competitive equilibrium. We test the main predictions of our theory using a novel measure of relative (in)convenience yields in the US Treasury market. |
| Keywords: | Asset pricing; Financial markets; Debt management; Monetary policy |
| JEL: | G12 E44 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:25-34 |
| By: | Qian'ang Mao; Yuxuan Zhang; Jiaman Chen; Wenjun Zhou; Jiaqi Yan |
| Abstract: | As Decentralized Finance (DeFi) develops, understanding user intent behind DeFi transactions is crucial yet challenging due to complex smart contract interactions, multifaceted on-/off-chain factors, and opaque hex logs. Existing methods lack deep semantic insight. To address this, we propose the Transaction Intent Mining (TIM) framework. TIM leverages a DeFi intent taxonomy built on grounded theory and a multi-agent Large Language Model (LLM) system to robustly infer user intents. A Meta-Level Planner dynamically coordinates domain experts to decompose multiple perspective-specific intent analyses into solvable subtasks. Question Solvers handle the tasks with multi-modal on/off-chain data. While a Cognitive Evaluator mitigates LLM hallucinations and ensures verifiability. Experiments show that TIM significantly outperforms machine learning models, single LLMs, and single Agent baselines. We also analyze core challenges in intent inference. This work helps provide a more reliable understanding of user motivations in DeFi, offering context-aware explanations for complex blockchain activity. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.15456 |
| By: | Elijah Kipchumba |
| Abstract: | Persons with disabilities are disproportionately excluded from livelihood opportunities. This exclusion traps persons with disabilities and their households in perpetual poverty. I study whether a programme that simultaneously strengthens the ultra-poor's productive, financial, human, and social assets alleviates this exclusion. The programme features adaptations of a previously successful, multifaceted program to make it disability-inclusive. |
| Keywords: | People with disabilities, Discrimination, Cluster randomized trial, Uganda |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-87 |
| By: | Gupta, Disha |
| Abstract: | There has been a declining trend in groundwater depths in India and subsidies on farm electricity contributes to over-extraction of groundwater raising concerns about its sustainability for irrigation. In this paper, we estimate the reduction in groundwater pumping under volumetric pricing of farm electricity for Punjab where farm electricity is free. We use parcel-level cost of cultivation data from Ministry of Agriculture for 2011-12 to 2013-14 to estimate the production function for paddy using instrumental variable approach. We find that the estimated marginal product of water function is relatively flat at the level of the average water application. The average marginal product of water is 32 kilograms for additional thousand cubic meters of water per hectare, which is very low. Simulations show that increasing the price of electricity from current level of zero to the true cost of electricity supply leads to sharp cutbacks of 59 percent in water extraction using electric pumps. However, the decline in average paddy yields is 11 percent. We show welfare gains in terms of reduction of the deadweight loss under volumetric pricing. Finally, we quantify average lump-sum subsidy that can be given to farmers as direct transfers to keep their surplus unchanged and we show that this can be financed using collections done by state electricity board from pricing electricity. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344328 |
| By: | Ngango, Jules; Musabanganji, Edouard; Maniriho, Aristide; Nkikabahizi, Ferdinand; Mukamuhire, Anitha; Ng’ombe, John N. |
| Abstract: | This study utilizes an endogenous switching regression model, complemented with coarsened exact matching, to ascertain the effects of adopting agroforestry on household food security. Our analysis employs data from a sample of 615 farms in Southern Rwanda. The findings indicate that the main determinants of agroforestry adoption include secure land tenure, membership in cooperatives, access to credit, household size, and farmers' awareness of agroforestry practices. Findings highlight the substantial contributions of agroforestry to food security, with adopters experiencing 19.81 percentage points higher food consumption scores compared to non-adopters. Moreover, the results reveal potential benefits for non-adopters through agroforestry adoption, thereby suggesting that even individuals who do not currently engage in agroforestry could enhance their food security by considering adoption. These insights emphasize the long-term potential of promoting agroforestry for current and prospective adopters. Policies reinforcing land security, supporting cooperatives, providing accessible credit, and promoting farmer sensitization are crucial for encouraging agroforestry adoption and improving food security. By identifying key determinants and quantifying impacts, this study offers targeted guidance for interventions that leverage agroforestry as a sustainable solution to enhance household food security |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344269 |
| By: | Frankenberg, Dominik; Kopka, Alexander; Peters, Jan Cornelius |
| Abstract: | Anlässlich der anstehenden Neuabgrenzung der Fördergebiete für die Gemeinschaftsaufgabe "Verbesserung der regionalen Wirtschaftsstruktur" (GRW) untersuchen wir die Strukturschwäche ländlicher Räume. Dies soll politischen Entscheidungsträgern helfen, mögliche Änderungen der Fördergebietsabgrenzung vor dem Hintergrund unterschiedlicher politischer Ziele zu bewerten. Aktuell werden ländliche Räume, gemessen an der Bevölkerungsverteilung, etwas häufiger als strukturschwach eingestuft als - höher verdichtete - urbane Regionen. Mit Ausnahme der Unterbeschäftigungsquote deuten alle derzeit für die Abgrenzung genutzten Indikatoren auf Formen von Strukturschwäche hin, die häufiger ländliche als urbane Regionen betreffen. Neben den bisher verwendeten Indikatoren beziehen wir auch weitere Merkmale mit Bezug zu den Zielen der GRW ein. Strukturschwäche in ländlichen Räumen spiegelt sich u. a. in folgenden Ausprägungen wider: in einem geringen Produktivitäts- und Lohnniveau, einem hohen Anteil von Auspendlern über 50 km, einem stark rückläufigen Arbeitskräfteangebot, Erreichbarkeits- bzw. Versorgungsdefiziten, einer geringeren kommunalen Steuereinnahmekraft, teils hohen Schulabbrecherquoten und einem geringen Anteil an MINT-Beschäftigten. Nominale Löhne sind in ländlichen Regionen bei gleicher regionaler Produktivität zudem im Mittel geringer als in höher verdichteten Regionen und weisen entsprechend stärker auf Strukturschwäche in ländlichen Räumen hin. Die Problemlagen innerhalb der ländlichen Räume variieren zwischen den einzelnen Regionen: Es sind nicht stets die gleichen ländlichen Regionen, die eher ungünstige Ausprägungen der herangezogenen Strukturschwächeindikatoren aufweisen. Die Indikatorauswahl hat also nicht nur Einfluss darauf, welcher Anteil der ländlichen Räume potenziell als strukturschwach klassifiziert wird, sondern auch darauf, auf welche ländlichen Regionen dies zutrifft (Kompositionseffekt). Die Gewichtung der einzelnen Indikatoren und Teilbereiche ist eine politisch-normative Entscheidung und sollte eng mit der zukünftigen inhaltlichen Ausrichtung bzw. Schwerpunktsetzung der GRW korrespondieren. Je nach förderpolitischer Akzentuierung können sehr unterschiedliche Regionen als strukturschwach klassifiziert werden. Sofern beabsichtigt wird, den "präventiver Charakter" der GRW zu stärken, könnten insbesondere Indikatoren der Bereiche Demografie, Digitalisierung / Automatisierung sowie Klimaneutralität einbezogen bzw. höher als bisher gewichtet werden. Demgegenüber könnte die bisher hohe Gewichtung der Unterbeschäftigungsquote aufgrund der mittel- sowie längerfristig gesunkenen Arbeitslosigkeit und eines ausgeprägten qualifikatorischen Missmatches am Arbeitsmarkt hinterfragt werden. Letzterer ist eher durch arbeitsmarktpolitische Maßnahmen zu adressieren. Der Transformationsdruck im Bereich Digitalisierung und Demografie ist in ländlichen Räumen höher als in urbanen Regionen. Im Bereich der Klimaneutralität stehen hingegen urbane Räume im Fokus. Jedoch führt die Dekarbonisierung auch in einigen ländlichen Regionen zu einem erhöhten Transformationsdruck. Als regionalpolitisches Förderinstrument ist die GRW auf die Kompensation von Standortnachteilen ausgerichtet. Sie kann insbesondere dann ein adäquates Instrument zur Adressierung von Transformationsdruck sein, wenn die Anpassungsfähigkeit von Betrieben durch die regionalen Standortbedingungen beeinträchtigt wird. Die Anpassungspotenziale in strukturschwachen ländlichen Räumen gelten häufig als geringer. Ein Anhaltspunkt dafür sind auch geringere gewerbliche Investitionen. Eine stärkere Berücksichtigung "präventiver Indikatoren" könnte teilweise zulasten von bisher als strukturschwach definierten Regionen gehen, da der Transformationsdruck auch in einigen aktuell strukturstärkeren Regionen hoch ist. Bisher erfolgt die Abgrenzung der GRW-Fördergebiete weitgehend entsprechend der Strukturschwäche, die auf der Ebene von Arbeitsmarktregionen festgestellt wurde. Die vorzuziehende regionale Analyseeinheit ist abhängig von der Zielsetzung bzw. dem räumlichen Wirkungskreis der Politikmaßnahmen. Eine Mindestgröße der räumlichen Bezugsebene (ab Kreisebene) erscheint geboten. Sofern die GRW weiterhin vorwiegend arbeitsmarktbezogene Ziele adressiert, sollte an der Fördergebietsabgrenzung auf Arbeitsmarktregionsebene festgehalten werden. Eine Verwendung der Kreisebene hätte gegenüber der Arbeitsmarktregionsebene vor allem dort nennenswerte Veränderungen zur Folge, wo ausgeprägte Stadt-Umland-Disparitäten innerhalb der entsprechenden Arbeitsmarktregion bestehen. |
| Abstract: | We are examining the structural weaknesses of rural areas in light of the upcoming redefinition of the assisted areas for the joint task Improvement of the Regional Economic Structure ("Verbesserung der regionalen Wirtschaftsstruktur" - GRW). This aims to help political decision-makers to evaluate possible changes to the delimitation of eligible areas against the backdrop of different political objectives. The current definition of assisted areas classifies rural areas as structurally weak slightly more often than more densely populated urban regions, based on population distribution. With the exception of the underemployment rate, all indicators used to define the current funding areas point to forms of structural weakness that affect rural regions more frequently than urban regions. In addition to the indicators used to date, we also include other characteristics related to the GRW's objectives. Structural weakness in rural areas is reflected, among other things, in the following characteristics: low productivity and wage levels, a high proportion of commuters traveling more than 50 km, a sharp decline in the labor supply, accessibility and supply deficits, lower municipal tax revenue, high school dropout rates in some cases, and a low proportion of STEM employees. Nominal wages in rural regions are also lower on average than in more densely populated regions for the same level of regional productivity, thereby accentuating the structural weakness of rural areas. The problems within rural areas vary between individual regions: it is not always the same rural regions that tend to show unfavorable characteristics in terms of the structural weakness indicators used. The choice of indicators therefore not only influences which proportion of rural areas is potentially classified as structurally weak, but also which rural regions this applies to (composition effect). The weighting of the individual indicators and sub- areas is a political and normative decision and should correspond closely with the future content orientation and focus of the GRW. Depending on the emphasis of funding policy, very different regions may be classified as structurally weak. If the intention is to strengthen the 'preventive character' of the GRW, indicators from the areas of demography, digitalisation/automation and climate neutrality could be included or given greater weight than before. On the other hand, the high weighting of the underemployment rate could be questioned due to the medium- and long- term decline in unemployment and a pronounced skills mismatch in the labour market. The latter is more likely to be addressed by labour market policy measures. The pressure for transformation in the areas of digitalisation and demographics is higher in rural areas than in urban regions. In the area of climate neutrality, however, the focus is on urban areas. However, decarbonisation is also leading to increased pressure for transformation in some rural regions. As a regional policy support instrument, the GRW is geared towards compensating for locational disadvantages. It can be an adequate instrument for addressing transformation pressure, particularly when the adaptability of businesses is impaired by regional location conditions. The potential for adaptation in structurally weak rural areas is often considered to be lower. One indication of this is lower commercial investment. Greater consideration of 'preventive indicators' could be partly at the expense of regions previously defined as structurally weak, as the expected pressure to transform is also high in some regions that are currently structurally stronger. Until now, the GRW funding areas have been largely defined according to the structural weakness identified at the level of labour market regions. The preferred regional unit of analysis depends on the objectives and spatial scope of the policy measures. A minimum size for the spatial reference level (from district level upwards) appears to be necessary. If the GRW continues to address primarily labour market-related objectives, the delimitation of the assisted areas at the labour market region level should be maintained. Using the district level instead of the labour market region level would result in significant changes, particularly where there are pronounced urban- rural disparities within the corresponding labour market region. |
| Keywords: | Regionale Strukturpolitik, räumliche Disparitäten, Regionalanalyse, regional structural policy, spatial disparities, regional analysis |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R58 J20 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:jhtire:331872 |
| By: | Cavalcanti, Francisco; Helfand, Steven M.; Moreira, Ajax |
| Abstract: | Climate change is likely to impact the occurrence of natural disasters such as drought. This paper calculates a standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and uses it to analyze the frequency, duration and severity of drought in Brazil (1901-2020). Second, the study uses annual panel data to estimate the causal effects of drought on agricultural production (1974- 2019), and calculates the distribution of impacts across municipalities. Third, the paper compares annual panel and long difference estimates to shed light on adaptation/intensification over a longer period. Finally, by combining the panel estimates with seven CMIP6 global climate models, the study provides a range of projections for drought impacts (2025-2075). Results indicate that drought severity increased substantially in the second half of the 20th century and again in the 2010s. Estimates show that ten percent of the time droughts reduced municipal production by about 25% or more, with considerable spatial heterogeneity. Long difference estimates indicate intensification in response to more extreme droughts, and (statistically insignificant) adaptation at the median. A substantial risk to agricultural production is identified in the 21st century, especially under more pessimistic global warming scenarios, with annual losses rising to over 35% by 2075. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Development |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344267 |
| By: | Nancy Birdsall (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | The 1993 publication of a World Bank book on the East Asian Miracle explained the extraordinarily rapid growth of Japan and seven other economies of East Asia (at 5 percent a year) between 1965 and 1990 as grounded in those economies’ adherence to market “fundamentals”—sound macro management, “shared” growth policies, investment in human capital—combined with an “export push” which fostered the technological learning that drove those countries’ high total factor productivity growth. The World Bank authors dismissed “industrial policy” as central to their growth and cautioned against other developing countries adopting industrial policy in the absence of strong government institutions. Was that caution too much a product of its post-Soviet, neoliberal era? Considering what we know now about the state of governance in developing countries, might industrial policy help boost growth in at least some developing countries? |
| Date: | 2025–11–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:736 |
| By: | Llorca, Manuel (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Rodriguez-Alvarez, Ana (Oviedo Efficiency Group, Department of Economics, University of Oviedo) |
| Abstract: | Energy poverty refers to the inability of households to afford adequate energy services, connected to negative impacts on health, well-being, and economic opportunities. It is a social policy issue that exacerbates inequality and limits access to essential services, particularly among vulnerable populations. In Spain, energy poverty has become an increasing concern, with many low-income households struggling to meet their energy needs despite various social protection mechanisms. This paper analyses the effectiveness of the Bono Social Eléctrico (BSE), a Spanish social electricity voucher aimed at alleviating energy poverty among vulnerable households. Departing from a microeconomic theoretical framework and a applying a Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) approach, the study evaluates the gap between observed and potential energy poverty levels. The empirical analysis employs Spanish household panel data from 2021 to 2023, capturing key household characteristics and subsidy information. The findings indicate that, while the BSE contributes to reducing energy poverty, its impact is constrained by insufficient coverage of the poorest households and inefficiencies in allocation. The study suggests policy recommendations to enhance the voucher’s targeting mechanisms and explores strategies for more effective interventions to address energy poverty. |
| Keywords: | Energy poverty; Policy evaluation; Stochastic frontier analysis; Spain; Bono social eléctrico |
| JEL: | C23 D12 I38 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025–04–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2025_004 |
| By: | Margarian, Anne |
| Abstract: | Der vorliegende Bericht zum Thünen-Monitoring von Preisen, Kosten und Margen in landwirtschaftlichen Wertschöpfungsketten diskutiert die methodischen und konzeptionellen Hintergründe des Monitorings und bietet Interpretationshilfen. Er ermöglicht eine informierte Nutzung des umfangreichen und jährlich aktualisierten Materials des Monitorings. Das Monitoring soll helfen, das verbreitete allzu vereinfachte Bild von der Preisbildung in landwirtschaftlichen Wertschöpfungsketten zu überwinden. Es zeigt unter anderem, dass die Preisentwicklungen in der Wertschöpfungskette heute nicht mehr die Preis-Kosten-Schere widerspiegeln, in der die Landwirtschaft lange gesehen wurde. Es zeigt auch, dass die Preisentwicklungen großenteils durch die Entwicklung der Vorleistungskosten zu erklären und die Margen in der Regel auf allen Stufen der Kette schmal sind. Ihre Veränderung hat daher nur begrenzten Einfluss auf die Preise. In der Landwirtschaft haben Schwankungen der Margen einen größeren Anteil an den Schwankungen der Erzeugungspreise. Angesichts der fehlenden Marktmacht landwirtschaftlicher Betriebe sind sie aber auf exogene Schwankungen in Angebot und Nachfrage zurückzuführen. Deutlich wird auch, dass größere Unternehmen in der gesamten Wertschöpfungskette nicht zwingend die höchsten Margen realisieren, aber oft die effizienteren Anbieter sind. Auf allen Stufen der Kette ist schließlich eine breite Streuung der Margen zu beobachten, die auf Effizienzunterschiede hindeutet. Von den kleinsten Unternehmen der Ernährungswirtschaft realisiert ein großer Teil negative Margen. Das steht im Einklang mit der starken Schrumpfung des Ernährungshandwerks. |
| Abstract: | This report discusses the methodological and conceptual background of the Thünen monitoring of prices, costs, and margins in food value chains, and offers guidance on interpretation. It enables informed use of the extensive and continually updated monitoring material. The monitoring aims to help overcome the widespread oversimplified view of price formation in food value chains. It demonstrates that price developments within the value chain no longer reflect the price-cost squeeze that agriculture has long been perceived to experience. It also demonstrates that price developments can largely be explained by changes in input costs, and that margins tend to be narrow at all stages of the chain. Therefore, their change has only a limited impact on prices. In agriculture, fluctuations in margins account for a larger proportion of fluctuations in producer prices. However, given farms' lack of market power, these fluctuations are attributable to exogenous fluctuations in supply and demand. It is also evident that larger companies do not necessarily achieve the highest margins throughout the value chain; rather, they are often the more efficient suppliers. Finally, a wide dispersion of margins can be observed at all stages of the chain, indicating differences in efficiency. A large proportion of the smallest food processing firms achieve negative margins. This is consistent with the sharp decline in the craft food sector. |
| Keywords: | Landwirtschaftliche Wertschöpfungskette, Preisbildung, Preistreiber, Marktmacht, Erfolgskennzahlen, Inflation, Nettomargen, Kapitalrentabilität, Unternehmensgruppen, Ernährungswirtschaft, Lebensmitteleinzelhandel, Food value chain, pricing, cost and price drivers, market power, performance indicators, inflation, net margins, return on capital, enterprise groups, food industry, food retail |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:jhtiwp:331875 |
| By: | Professor Mustafizur Rahman; Anika Tasnim Arpita; Tanbin Alam Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | The recently announced Reciprocal TariffÂs (RTs) by US President Donald Trump have triggered a lot of uncertainties and anxieties worldwide, both in view of trade with the US and also from the perspectives of global trade and economic growth. For obvious reasons, Bangladesh has been no exception, particularly because US is one of Bangladesh’s key trade and economic partners. |
| Keywords: | Trump reciprocal tariffs, Bangladesh trade, US–Bangladesh relations, export impacts, global trade uncertainty, economic growth risk, external sector implications, FDI concerns |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:pbrief:75 |
| By: | José María Durán-Cabré (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB); Alejandro Esteller-Moré (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB); Riccardo Secomandi (University of Ferrara & IEB) |
| Abstract: | We examine how information influences the marginal willingness to pay taxes (MWTPT) through a four-wave randomized survey experiment conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, we assess the impact of quantitative (data on the actual tax-to-GDP ratio) and qualitative (basic pros and cons of taxation) information on revealed MWTPT. The results show that qualitative information increases MWTPT, particularly among high-income individuals. In contrast, quantitative information only reduces MWTPT among high-income individuals who initially underestimated the aggregate tax burden. Hence, those who are potentially more affected by taxes are also more sensitive to the provision of information. These findings suggest that information can shape perceptions of the tax system and, consequently, influence individuals' willingness to contribute to public good provision. This has important implications for tax policy design and efforts to reduce political polarization. If these efforts are not properly implemented, the revealed price of democracy will remain biased. |
| Keywords: | Survey experiment, Fiscal knowledge, Marginal Willingness to Pay Taxes, Income based behaviour |
| JEL: | D72 D91 H20 H26 H30 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2025-04 |
| By: | Luca Corazzini; Elisa Deriu; Marco Guerzoni |
| Abstract: | Large language models (LLMs) increasingly mediate economic and organisational processes, from automated customer support and recruitment to investment advice and policy analysis. These systems are often assumed to embody rational decision making free from human error; yet they are trained on human language corpora that may embed cognitive and social biases. This study investigates whether advanced LLMs behave as rational agents or whether they reproduce human behavioural tendencies when faced with classic decision problems. Using two canonical experiments in behavioural economics, the ultimatum game and a gambling game, we elicit decisions from two state of the art models, Google Gemma7B and Qwen, under neutral and gender conditioned prompts. We estimate parameters of inequity aversion and loss-aversion and compare them with human benchmarks. The models display attenuated but persistent deviations from rationality, including moderate fairness concerns, mild loss aversion, and subtle gender conditioned differences. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.12319 |
| By: | Kafle, Kashi; Wang, Yuanhang; Kiiza, Barnabas |
| Abstract: | In the absence of reliable and timely weather information, unprecedented weather shocks can influence farmers’ decision-making. We take the case of Uganda to investigate the relationship between weather shocks and temporary migration among smallholders. Using longitudinal data from a nationally representative survey – Living Standard Measurement Study-Integrated Survey in Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) –, we examine if household-level weather shocks affect temporary migration. Using panel data estimators, we show that weather shocks reduce temporary migration among poor households, and the relationship is more pronounced for smallholders. We also find that the relationship differs by the type of migration. Weather shocks reduce temporary labor migration and migration for educational purposes, but migration for other reasons is not affected. These results are confirmed by focused group interviews with 24 rural farmers from all four regions of Uganda. We identify reduced agricultural productivity and low farm revenue as potential channels for the negative relationship between weather shocks and migration. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344270 |
| By: | Fink, Lotta; Berghammer, Anja |
| Abstract: | This article examines how both conscious and unconscious motives of leaders influence their expectations toward employees. While previous research has primarily focused on observable behavior and consciously articulated beliefs, this study specifically considers deeper, implicit motivational structures. The theoretical framework is Julius Kuhl's PSI theory, which distinguishes four fundamental motives. Data were collected using selected modules of the TOP 120ê assessment (MUT and OMT). The analysis of additional expert interviews reveals that conscious motives have a strong influence on the expectations leaders formulate. At the same time, unconscious motives also play a role, particularly when the strength of the unconscious motive significantly exceeds the conscious one. In addition to motives, personal experiences, social norms, and organizational structures also shape leaders' expectations. These findings highlight the importance of reflecting on one's own motives and their influence on leadership behavior. Targeted use of motive diagnostics can support self-reflection and, when combined with practical formats such as coaching or workshops, contribute to a more transparent communication of expectations |
| Keywords: | Leadership, leadership research, PSI theory, motives, expectations, personality diagnostics, self-reflection |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iubhhr:331871 |
| By: | Balboni, Clare; Shapiro, Joseph S |
| Abstract: | How do environmental goods and policies shape spatial patterns of economic activity? How will climate change modify these impacts over the coming decades? How do agglomeration, commuting, and other spatial forces and policies affect environmental quality? We distill theoretical and empirical research linking urban, regional, and spatial economics to the environment. We present stylized facts on spatial environmental economics, describe insights from canonical environmental models and spatial models, and discuss the building blocks for papers and the research frontier in enviro-spatial economics. Most enviro-spatial research remains bifurcated into either primarily environmental or spatial papers. Research is only beginning to realize potential insights from more closely combining spatial and environmental approaches. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt15j5r23s |
| By: | Soler, Víctor |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the influence of various factors on the probability of being a teleworker, experiencing depression, maintaining a satisfactory work–family balance, and the overall well-being of Finnish workers. The analysis is based on data from the 2021 European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS) and uses cross-sectional models. Specifically, probit models are estimated for discrete dependent variables and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models for continuous dependent variables. These models aim to explain individuals’ choices between two possible alternatives, coded as 1 and 0, according to a set of exogenous variables. The results show that the probability of being a teleworker is mainly determined by having higher education and being male. In the case of depression, the most relevant factors are living in a rural area and having a partial teleworking arrangement. Regarding work–family balance, full telework and university education significantly increase the likelihood of reporting a good work–life balance. Finally, workers’ well-being is primarily determined by age (in logarithms) and by being young, suggesting a non-linear relationship between age and well-being. |
| Keywords: | telework; depression; work-life balance; home-work conflict; Probit; Finland. |
| JEL: | J22 J28 J31 O52 |
| Date: | 2025–11–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126985 |
| By: | Comisión Nacional de los Mercados y la Competencia (CNMC) (Comisión Nacional de los Mercados y la Competencia (CNMC)) |
| Abstract: | La economía conductual posee gran potencial para impulsar la eficacia y eficiencia de las normas, de las políticas públicas y de la supervisión, en beneficio del buen funcionamiento de los mercados, de los consumidores y de la economía. Son instrumentos flexibles, que respetan la libertad de elección y tienen un coste muy reducido. Por ello, muchos países utilizan estos instrumentos de forma sistemática. Para impulsar su uso en España la CNMC recomienda, primero, crear un marco normativo en la materia, con unidades conductuales, redes de expertos, capital humano e integración en foros internacionales. Segundo, adoptar la economía conductual en el diseño y la evaluación de la regulación y políticas públicas, impulsando documentos de orientación, la transparencia y la experimentación y bancos de pruebas. Tercero, introducir el enfoque conductual en la labor de los supervisores, impulsando además medidas de prevención y concienciación, y fomentando la colaboración entre instituciones. |
| Keywords: | Regulación, Supervisión, Competencia, Economía conductual, Economía del comportamiento, Sesgos cognitivos, Heurísticas, Nudges |
| JEL: | C9 D9 K23 L4 L51 |
| Date: | 2025–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:awo:epaper:e/cnmc/002/23 |
| By: | Meryem Gökten (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Oliver Reiter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Neue Wege für die EU-Türkei-Wirtschaftsbeziehungen – Zollunion im Wandel? This publication is available in German language only. For a brief English summary see further below. Dieser Bericht analysiert die wirtschaftlichen Entwicklungen der EU-Türkei-Zollunion und deren geopolitische Implikationen. Während das Handelsvolumen seit 1996 gestiegen ist, haben die EU und Österreich als Handelspartner an relativer Bedeutung verloren, insbesondere zugunsten Russlands und Chinas. Auch innerhalb Europas zeigen sich Verschiebungen Der Handel verlagert sich zunehmend zugunsten osteuropäischer Mitgliedstaaten, während die Beziehungen zu traditionellen westeuropäischen Partnern, insbesondere den großen Volkswirtschaften, tendenziell rückläufig sind. Spanien bildet eine Ausnahme, wo sich das Handelsvolumen aufgrund enger politischer und wirtschaftlicher Beziehungen deutlich erhöhte. Zwar hat die Zollunion den Handel insgesamt deutlich gefördert, doch ihr enger Umfang sowie insbesondere bestehende nichttarifäre Handelshemmnisse schränken das Exportpotenzial für die Mehrheit der EU-Mitgliedstaaten weiterhin ein. Neue US-Zölle und der eskalierende transatlantische Handelskonflikt erschweren zusätzlich die bilateralen Handelsbeziehungen zwischen der EU und der Türkei. Gleichzeitig öffnen sie jedoch Spielräume für eine Modernisierung. Aber die Zollunion bleibt politisch umstritten Im Laufe der Jahre haben politische Differenzen, innenpolitische Turbulenzen in der Türkei sowie der daraus resultierende stagnierende EU-Beitrittsprozess das bilaterale Verhältnis zunehmend belastet. Trotz ihrer wachsenden geopolitischen Bedeutung gilt die Türkei weiterhin als instabile Partnerin Die Verhaftung des Istanbuler Bürgermeisters Ekrem İmamoğlu und die Repressionen gegen die größte Oppositionspartei CHP haben das Vertrauen europäischer Partner weiter geschwächt, mit negativen Folgen nicht nur für die politischen Beziehungen, sondern auch für das Vertrauen von Investor innen. In vier Szenarien untersuchen wir die Auswirkungen möglicher Handelsentwicklungen auf Wohlfahrt und Handelsströme, insbesondere für die EU und die Türkei. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass eine tiefgreifende Modernisierung der Zollunion das Handelsvolumen zwischen der Türkei und der EU deutlich erhöhen und spürbare Wohlfahrtsgewinne für die Türkei erzielen, die negativen Effekte eines Handelskonflikts mit den USA für die EU aber nur sehr gering abmildern könnte. New paths for EU-Turkey economic relations – Custom Union in transition? This report analyses economic developments since the introduction of the EU–Turkey Customs Union and examines the geopolitical implications of its modernisation. While EU–Turkey trade has grown since 1996, the EU and Austria have lost market share in Turkey’s overall trade, particularly to Russia and China. Shifts are also visible within Europe trade is increasingly tilting toward Eastern European member states, while ties with traditional Western partners, especially the large economies, are gradually weakening. Spain is an exception, with trade volume increasing significantly due to its close political and economic ties with Turkey. Although the customs union has significantly promoted trade overall, its narrow scope and, in particular, existing non-tariff trade barriers continue to limit the export potential for the majority of EU member states. New US tariffs and the escalating transatlantic trade dispute are further complicating EU-Turkey trade relations. At the same time, the EU continues to conclude new FTAs, which intensifies the asymmetry of the customs union for Turkey and reinforces the need for modernisation. Yet the customs union remains politically contentious within the EU long-standing political disagreements, domestic turbulence in Turkey, and the stalled accession process have increasingly strained bilateral relations. Despite its growing geopolitical importance and the need to modernise the customs union, Turkey continues to be seen as an unstable partner. The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and the crackdown on the main opposition party, the CHP, have further eroded the confidence of European partners, harming political relations as well as investor sentiment. In four scenarios, we assess how different modernisation options for the customs union would affect welfare and trade flows for the EU and Turkey. The results show that a comprehensive upgrade of the customs union could substantially increase EU-Turkey trade and deliver clear welfare gains for Turkey, but would only marginally cushion the EU from the negative effects of a trade conflict with the United States. |
| Keywords: | Zollunion, EU-Türkei-Beziehungen, berechenbares allgemeines Gleichgewichtsmodell |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F50 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:ratpap:rpg:32 |
| By: | Harrison Katz |
| Abstract: | This commentary translates the central ideas in Lead times in flux into a practice ready handbook in R. The original article measures change in the full distribution of booking lead times with a normalized L1 distance and tracks that divergence across months relative to year over year and to a fixed 2018 reference. It also provides a bound that links divergence and remaining horizon to the relative error of pickup forecasts. We implement these ideas end to end in R, using a minimal data schema and providing runnable scripts, simulated examples, and a prespecified evaluation plan. All results use synthetic data so the exposition is fully reproducible without reference to proprietary sources. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.12763 |
| By: | Gobbi, Paula (Université Libre de Bruxelles); Hannusch, Anne (University of Bonn); Rossi, Pauline (CREST) |
| Abstract: | Much of the observed cross-country variation in fertility aligns with the predictions of classic theories of the fertility transition: countries with higher levels of human capital, higher GDP per capita, or lower mortality rates tend to exhibit lower fertility. However, when examining changes within countries over the past 60 years, larger fertility declines are only weakly associated with greater improvements in human capital, per capita GDP, or survival rates. To understand why, we focus on the role of family institutions, particularly marriage and inheritance customs. We argue that, together with the diffusion of cultural norms, they help explain variations in the timing, speed and magnitude of the fertility decline. We propose a stylized model integrating economic, health, institutional and cultural factors to study how these factors interact to shape fertility transition paths. We find that family institutions can mediate the effect of economic development by constraining fertility responses. |
| Keywords: | marriage, family institutions, fertility, inheritance |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18262 |
| By: | Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham; Tianshu Lyu |
| Abstract: | Financial event studies, ubiquitous in finance research, typically use linear factor models with known factors to estimate abnormal returns and identify causal effects of information events. This paper demonstrates that when factor models are misspecified -- an almost certain reality -- traditional event study estimators produce inconsistent estimates of treatment effects. The bias is particularly severe during volatile periods, over long horizons, and when event timing correlates with market conditions. We derive precise conditions for identification and expressions for asymptotic bias. As an alternative, we propose synthetic control methods that construct replicating portfolios from control securities without imposing specific factor structures. Revisiting four empirical applications, we show that some established findings may reflect model misspecification rather than true treatment effects. While traditional methods remain reliable for short-horizon studies with random event timing, our results suggest caution when interpreting long-horizon or volatile-period event studies and highlight the importance of quasi-experimental designs when available. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.15123 |
| By: | Eigenhüller, Lutz (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Moritz, Michael (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Böhme, Stefan (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Niebuhr, Annekatrin (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Buch, Tanja (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Stöckmann, Andrea (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Wapler, Rüdiger (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Hell, Stefan (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Sieglen, Georg (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Rossen, Anja (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Fuchs, Stefan (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Baumann, Doris (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "Die vorliegende Studie untersucht die regionalen Unterschiede im Beschäftigungswachstum und ihre Einflussfaktoren mit dem Fokus auf Bayern und den bayerischen Kreisen. Von 1999 bis 2023 ist die Zahl der sozialversicherungspflichtigen Beschäftigten in Bayern im Vergleich mit den anderen bundesdeutschen Flächenländern am stärksten gestiegen. 92 der 96 bayerischen Kreise weisen ein positives Beschäftigungswachstum auf, die Dynamik variiert allerdings deutlich zwischen den Regionen. So gab es in vielen oberbayerischen Kreisen ein überdurchschnittliches Beschäftigungswachstum, während insbesondere in einigen Kreisen in Nordostbayern die Beschäftigungsentwicklung unterdurchschnittlich ausfiel. Ein eindeutiges Süd-Nord-Gefälle zeigt sich allerdings nicht. Auffällig ist außerdem das tendenziell stärkere Beschäftigungswachstum in den Umlandkreisen der Städte als in den Städten selbst. Die Analyse zeigt, dass der Branchenmix und die Betriebsgrößenstruktur die Beschäftigungsentwicklung Bayerns etwas gedämpft haben. Auch der Qualifikationseffekt war leicht negativ. Dagegen gingen von der Altersstruktur der Beschäftigten und den Standortbedingungen vergleichsweise starke positive Impulse aus. Auf Kreisebene finden sich bei den Effekten für die Branchen-, Betriebsgrößen- und Qualifikationsstruktur sowie tendenziell für die Altersstruktur deutliche Stadt-Land-Unterschiede. Beim Standorteffekt findet sich auf Kreisebene dagegen kein solches Muster. Insgesamt zeigen die Ergebnisse, dass Bayern in den letzten Jahren im Ländervergleich eine überdurchschnittlich gute Beschäftigungsentwicklung aufweist, die aber nicht automatisch fortgeschrieben werden kann. Herausforderungen liegen in der Transformation zentraler Industrien, dem Branchenmix vieler Regionen, der Sicherung und Entwicklung von (hoch-)qualifizierten Arbeitskräften sowie der Bestimmung und Weiterentwicklung der regionalen Standortbedingungen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku) |
| Keywords: | Bayern ; Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Auswirkungen ; Beschäftigtenstruktur ; Beschäftigungsentwicklung ; Betriebsgröße ; Bundesländer ; demografischer Wandel ; IAB-Beschäftigtenhistorik ; Altersstruktur ; Qualifikationsstruktur ; regionale Faktoren ; regionaler Vergleich ; sektorale Verteilung ; Standortfaktoren ; Wirtschaftszweigstruktur ; 2000-2023 |
| Date: | 2025–11–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabrby:202501 |
| By: | Afonso Rodrigues |
| Abstract: | Popular demand estimation approaches impose unrealistic choice constraints and misstate market boundaries, biasing price elasticity estimates and affecting our understanding of market power and pass-throughs. I introduce a novel, scalable method that conditions the outcome of consumers' choice on the structure of their consideration set: a function of all the combinations of goods - shopping baskets - considered each purchase instance by consumers. I show that if consideration sets bind consumers' consumption bundles, joint purchases induce substitutes and complements, possibly making market concentration welfare-increasing. To allow for demand estimation across product categories while addressing dimensionality concerns, I develop a Slutsky matrix proxy from joint-purchase frequencies. I test the model's predictions and jointly determine price elasticities for 20 000 goods across 500 product categories for a Portuguese grocery store sample from 2020-23. The results match observed price volatility, profit margin surveys, as well as reports on shifting consumer tastes during the sample period. Mark-ups are found to have remained volatile around a stable mean, with peaks and troughs corresponding to COVID-related events. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.11846 |
| By: | Phoebe Koundouri; Chrysilia Pitti; Georgios Feretzakis |
| Abstract: | Greece is transitioning from a late digital adopter to a fast reformer in the field of digital health and artificial intelligence (AI). This transformation is anchored in two major strategic frameworks. The first is the Digital Transformation Bible 2020-2025, the country's foundational digital policy document, which describes hundreds of projects across the public sector and explicitly prioritises the digital modernisation of health services. The second is the 2024 national AI strategy, A Blueprint for Greece's AI Transformation, developed by the High-Level Advisory Committee on Artificial Intelligence under the Prime Minister and coordinated by the Special Secretariat of Foresight. This blueprint sets out a comprehensive vision for AI in Greece, including a clear emphasis on applications in healthcare and public administration. At the infrastructure level, Greece has built very strong national "digital rails" for health. The national e-Prescription and e-Dispensation system, the MyHealth mobile application, and the National Electronic Health Record (EHR) operated by IDIKA S.A. provide, as of 2025, near-universal coverage for prescriptions and an increasingly rich longitudinal record of patient data. In contrast, hospital information systems remain heterogeneous, fragmented and often poorly interoperable. A Q2 2025 Black Book Research survey of 122 Greek hospital and physician-practice administrators found that only fourteen percent of providers reported having integrated, fully functional digital health records in routine care, while ninety-eight percent expressed dissatisfaction with their current EHR environment. Despite these challenges, Greece has begun to introduce AI directly into the National Health System (NHS). In October 2025, the Ministry of Health launched the Digital Doctor Assistant, an AI-based tool that allows physicians to query the national EHR through the myHealthDoc platform using natural language and voice commands. It is widely described by national authorities and media as the first operational AI application embedded in the Greek NHS. Overall, Greece combines advanced national digital infrastructure with uneven clinical digitisation and limited interoperability. The country is well positioned to leverage EU funding, national AI strategy and high-performance computing resources to become a regional hub for AI in health, provided it can close the gap between national platforms and hospital-level systems and invest systematically in workforce skills and data governance. |
| Date: | 2025–11–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2566 |
| By: | Giuseppe Rocco (Università degli studi di Ferrara); Ludovica Loiacono (Università degli studi di Ferrara); Susanna Mancinelli (Università degli studi di Ferrara); Massimiliano Mazzanti (Università degli studi di Ferrara); Maddalena Nonato (Università degli studi di Ferrara); Emilio Paolo Visentin (Università degli studi di Ferrara) |
| Abstract: | This study applies insights from behavioural economics to examine the challenges surrounding the adoption of the Walking School Bus (WSB), a sustainable school transportation initiative. Using thematic analysis of interviews with schoolteachers in Ferrara, Italy, we identify three key themes influencing participation: Service Characteristics, Family Determinants, and School Context. Our analysis reveals that behavioural mechanisms—such as status quo bias and the collective action problem related to volunteer recruitment—pose significant barriers to adoption, even in the face of broad recognition of the program’s benefits. The findings suggest that addressing these behavioural obstacles requires targeted interventions aimed at mitigating cognitive biases and improving decision-making processes that currently hinder participation. This research offers empirical evidence that successful implementation depends on a nuanced understanding of the interaction between practical design features and deep-seated psychological barriers that shape family mobility choices. These insights contribute to behavioural theory and offer practical guidance for promoting sustainable transport behaviours in urban settings. |
| Keywords: | walking school bus, behavioural economics, thematic analysis, implementation challenges, sustainable mobility |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srt:wpaper:1025 |
| By: | Hafsa Hina (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics) |
| Abstract: | The exchange rate is a crucial indicator of a nations performance in the external sector and influences key macroeconomic variables. In theory, exchange rates should be determined by market forces and reflect economic fundamentals; however, developing economies such as Pakistan often experience significant deviations due to structural weaknesses and policy interventions. This paper reviews the literature on the exchange rate in Pakistan, classifying and summarising the findings on nominal exchange rates, real exchange rates, real effective exchange rates, and foreign exchange market pressures. This review provides a comprehensive understanding of exchange rate policy in Pakistan and its economic implications. The paper concludes by identifying gaps in current research and suggesting areas of future study to address the complexities of exchange rate management in developing economies. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2025:3 |
| By: | Tomas Espana; Yadh Hafsi; Fabrizio Lillo; Edoardo Vittori |
| Abstract: | We investigate the use of Reinforcement Learning for the optimal execution of meta-orders, where the objective is to execute incrementally large orders while minimizing implementation shortfall and market impact over an extended period of time. Departing from traditional parametric approaches to price dynamics and impact modeling, we adopt a model-free, data-driven framework. Since policy optimization requires counterfactual feedback that historical data cannot provide, we employ the Queue-Reactive Model to generate realistic and tractable limit order book simulations that encompass transient price impact, and nonlinear and dynamic order flow responses. Methodologically, we train a Double Deep Q-Network agent on a state space comprising time, inventory, price, and depth variables, and evaluate its performance against established benchmarks. Numerical simulation results show that the agent learns a policy that is both strategic and tactical, adapting effectively to order book conditions and outperforming standard approaches across multiple training configurations. These findings provide strong evidence that model-free Reinforcement Learning can yield adaptive and robust solutions to the optimal execution problem. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.15262 |
| By: | Muhammad Jehangir Khan (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics) |
| Abstract: | The rate of return to education is a measure of the economic benefits of education in terms of increased earnings and productivity. To provide evidence on the rate of return for Pakistan, we conducted an extensive literature search using online sources such as Google Scholar, JSOR, and others. We also presented global evidence, for comparison on the rate of returns covered extensively in the literature surveys of Montenegro and Patrinos (2023) Patrinos and Psacharopoulos (2020). There are two main estimation frameworks to estimate the rate of returns; the earning function and the full discounting method. The survey of earning differentials in Pakistan reveals several key insights. The rate of return to education varies, but overall, investing in education yields higher returns for females compared to males. However, the average returns for males are relatively low in Pakistan compared to global averages. Across economies, the returns are generally higher for females, and high-income economies exhibit the smallest gender gap. While private returns in Pakistan exceed social returns at higher education levels, a significant proportion of children end up with only primary education, leading to lower productivity and hindering long-term economic growth. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2025:4 |
| By: | Afiq bin Oslan |
| Abstract: | Developed nations often position themselves as leaders in green movements and legislate protections for their local environment. In some cases, this can have indirect negative consequences as environmentally-harmful behaviours are simply displaced abroad. This paper argues, from a political-economic perspective, that the local environment in developed states may also become neglected as a result of the same policies as new regulations diminish the economic value of local environments. I demonstrate this phenomenon in a series of simple game-theoretical models where stakeholders of environmental resources respond to the policies of two trade partner governments. The models show that environmentally-conscious governments might have their green policies backfire — resulting in environmental neglect if the preferences of those directly managing environmental resources are not in sync. Thus, in their attempt to hide trade behind green rhetoric, developed nations may be promoting environmental neglect at both ends of the trade route. Discussions of the wood industry in post-war Japan and the EU Forest Strategy for 2030 supplement the models. |
| Keywords: | environmental politics, green-washing, renewable resources, political economy, game theory |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpi:wpaper:tax-mpg-rps-2024-09 |
| By: | Chao Zhang; Yulin Lu |
| Abstract: | Since the Industrial Revolution, the world economy has experienced rapid development, and China's economy has also achieved an unprecedented takeoff in the past. Behind the economic growth, population surge, and continuous improvement of people's living standards lies the enormous consumption of fossil energy and environmental pollution. This kind of pollution has caused irreparable damage to the world. The most concerned environmental issue globally at present is the global warming caused by carbon dioxide emissions. China is in a stage of rapid development, and as the largest developing country, China's development path has a significant impact on global climate change. At the same time, the global community also puts pressure on China to limit carbon dioxide emissions. To address energy shortages and environmental issues, countries around the world have introduced corresponding energy and environmental regulations. Due to different culture and government systems, the effects of energy and environmental regulations in various countries are also different. Therefore, it is still necessary to discuss China's energy and environmental regulations.This paper uses data from prefecture-level cities between 2003 and 2008 to discuss the impact of the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" environmental regulations on urbanization rates. It first provides a theoretical analysis of the relationship between environmental regulation and urbanization, finding that environmental regulation can influence urban population mobility through both crowding-in and crowding-out effects. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.10702 |
| By: | Goeb, Joseph; San, Cho Cho; Belton, Ben; Synt, Nang Lun Kham; Aung, Nilar; Maredia, Mywish; Minten, Bart |
| Abstract: | Myanmar has experienced a sequence of dire crises beginning in 2019 including the unexpected closure of a principal trade route, COVID-19 lockdowns and travel restrictions, and a military coup leading to years of disruptions in the banking and transport sectors, inflation, and conflict. Yet, through these cascading shocks Myanmar’s maize sector experienced robust growth in production and exports. This paper examines the reasons underlying this apparent paradox and our findings contribute to the small but growing literatures on agri-food value chain (AVC) resilience and adaptation by traders. Strengthening the resilience of AVCs to shocks has important implications for welfare in developing countries and is increasingly drawing attention from policymakers and development partners. Using data from several sources including rare panel data sets of traders and farmers, and key informant interviews, we show that crop traders have been critical to the resilience of the maize value chain in Myanmar during this turbulent period. Maize traders performed three key functions contributing to resilience: (i) market discovery when primary trade routes were closed; (ii) overcoming transportation disruptions and bank closures to move maize from the farmgate to local and export markets; (iii) maintaining flows of credit to farmers throughout the crises in the form of selling inputs on credit and lending cash, thereby injecting much needed liquidity at times of incredible uncertainty, disruptions in the banking sector, and rising input prices. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344306 |
| By: | Patrick M. Kline |
| Abstract: | Economists often rely on estimates of linear fixed effects models developed by other teams of researchers. Assessing the uncertainty in these estimates can be challenging. I propose a form of sample splitting for network data that breaks two-way fixed effects estimates into statistically independent branches, each of which provides an unbiased estimate of the parameters of interest. These branches facilitate uncertainty quantification, moment estimation, and shrinkage. Algorithms are developed for efficiently extracting branches from large datasets. I illustrate these techniques using a benchmark dataset from Veneto, Italy that has been widely used to study firm wage effects. |
| JEL: | C01 J30 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34486 |
| By: | Hossain, Marup; Mendiratta, Vibhuti; Savastano, Sara |
| Abstract: | Agricultural and rural development interventions significantly reduce global poverty by providing growth-oriented tools, including but not limited to access to finance, training, and markets. While such interventions effectively reduce monetary poverty (e.g., $1 a day poverty line), there is increasing interest in incorporating non-monetary poverty indicators, such as education, health, and living standards, to capture inherent multidimensionality in poverty. This study analyzes data from 16 impact evaluation studies conducted between 2019 and 2023 to examine whether and to what extent agricultural and rural development interventions affect the multidimensional poverty of small-scale producers. Our analysis reveals a 4 percent reduction in multidimensional poverty for treatment households compared to comparison households. Our findings suggest that agricultural and rural development interventions play a positive role in reducing poverty and have the potential to improve the long-term well-being of poor households. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344302 |
| By: | Olivier De Jonghe (National Bank of Belgium); Konstantīns Benkovskis (Latvijas Banka); Karolis Bielskis (Bank of Lithuania); Diana Bonfim (Banco de Portugal, Católica Lisbon School of Business & Economics); Margherita Bottero (Banca d’Italia); Tamás Briglevics (Central Bank of Hungary); Martin Cesnak (National Bank of Slovakia); Mantas Dirma (Bank of Lithuania); Marina Emiris (National Bank of Belgium); Pálma Filep-Mosberger (Central Bank of Hungary); Valentin Jouvanceau (Bank of Lithuania); Nicholas Kaiser (Central Bank of Ireland); Dmitry Khametshin (Banco de España); Viola M. Grolmusz (Central Bank of Hungary); Laura Moretti (Central Bank of Ireland); Artūrs Jānis Nikitins (Latvijas Banka); Angelo Nunnari (Banca d’Italia); Maria Rodriguez Moreno (Banco de España); Elitsa Stefanova (European Central Bank); Lajos Tamás Szabó (Central Bank of Hungary); Kārlis Vilerts (Latvijas Banka); Sujiao Emma Zhao (Banco de Portugal, Católica Lisbon School of Business & Economics) |
| Abstract: | We study heterogeneity in households’ credit across nine European countries (Belgium, Spain, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, and Slovakia) during 2022-2024 using granular credit register data. We first document substantial between- and within-country variation in mortgage and consumer lending by borrower age, loan maturity, and interest rate fixation. We then quantify the pass-through of the ECB’s recent tightening cycle to household borrowing costs and assess its heterogeneous impact across households. Pass-through is nearly complete for mortgages (around 0.9) but considerably weaker for consumer credit (around 0.4). While mortgage pass-through is relatively homogeneous across countries, consumer credit shows pronounced cross-country differences that cannot be explained by borrower or loan characteristics. Younger households face stronger mortgage pass-through but weaker consumer credit pass-through relative to older borrowers, and longer maturities are associated with stronger pass-through in both credit markets. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy transmission; household borrowing; credit registers; interest rate pass through; cross-country heterogeneity. |
| JEL: | E52 G21 D14 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:202511-485 |
| By: | Hessler, Lucian; Rock, Verena |
| Abstract: | Das Thema NAV-Spreads europäischer Immobilienaktien wird derzeit vor allem im Kontext von Bewertungseffizienz und Marktentwicklung diskutiert. Eine fachspezifische Analyse der Bestimmungsfaktoren von NAV-Spreads und deren zeitlicher Dynamik im europäischen Vergleich wurde bislang nur begrenzt vorgenommen. Die vorliegende Arbeit widmet sich dieser Thematik unter Einbeziehung ökonometrischer Untersuchungen. Sie geht der Frage nach, welche makroökonomischen, unternehmensspezifischen und marktbezogenen Faktoren den NAV-Spread europäischer Immobilienaktien beeinflussen und welche Unterschiede sich im Zeitverlauf sowie zwischen den Ländern zeigen. Die Analyse gliedert sich in vier Forschungsfragen, die aufeinander aufbauend bearbeitet werden. Zunächst wird der theoretische Rahmen des NAV-Spreads sowie die historische Entwicklung in Europa dargestellt. Darauf aufbauend wird untersucht, welche Determinanten den NAV-Spread maßgeblich erklären können. Neben makroökonomischen Variablen werden insbesondere unternehmensinterne Kennzahlen wie Verschuldungsgrad, Größe und Ausschüttungsquoten betrachtet. Ein weiterer Schwerpunkt liegt auf dem Vergleich zwischen den europäischen Märkten, um mögliche Strukturunterschiede und landesspezifische Besonderheiten herauszuarbeiten. Schließlich wird analysiert, wie sich die NAVSpreads im Zeitablauf entwickelt haben und in welchen Marktphasen besondere Muster auftreten. Zur Beantwortung der Forschungsfragen wurden neben einer ausführlichen Literaturanalyse auch quantitative Methoden eingesetzt. Mithilfe einer Panelregression über mehrere europäischen Länder hinweg wurden Zusammenhänge zwischen dem NAV-Spread und den identifizierten Einflussgrößen empirisch überprüft. Ergänzend erfolgte eine Analyse der zeitlichen Entwicklung der NAV-Spreads in Abhängigkeit von Kapitalmarktbedingungen und makroökonomischen Zyklen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass NAV-Spreads in Europa deutlichen Schwankungen unterliegen und sowohl durch makroökonomische Faktoren als auch durch unternehmensspezifische Eigenschaften bestimmt werden. Länderspezifische Unterschiede lassen sich vor allem durch regulatorische Rahmenbedingungen und Marktstrukturen erklären. Besonders in Krisenzeiten weiten sich die NAV-Spreads signifikant aus, was auf eine erhöhte Risikoaversion der Investoren schließen lässt. Für die Praxis ergibt sich daraus, dass NAV-Spreads nicht nur als reine Bewertungsdifferenz, sondern als Indikator für Marktstimmungen und Risikoeinschätzungen verstanden werden sollten. Immobilienunternehmen und Investoren können aus der Beobachtung und Analyse von NAV-Spreads wichtige Informationen für ihre strategischen Entscheidungen ableiten. Insgesamt leistet die Arbeit einen Beitrag zur besseren Einordnung der NAV-Spreads europäischer Immobilienaktien, zeigt deren zentrale Treiber auf und eröffnet Ansatzpunkte für weiterführende Untersuchungen, insbesondere im Hinblick auf internationale Vergleiche und die Rolle von Immobilienaktien in gemischten Portfolios. |
| Abstract: | The topic of NAV (Net Asset Value) spreads in European real estate equities is currently discussed primarily in the context of valuation efficiency and market development. However, a specialized analysis of the determinants of NAV spreads and their temporal dynamics across European countries has so far been limited. This study addresses this gap by incorporating econometric investigations. It explores which macroeconomic, firm-specific, and market-related factors influence the NAV spread of European real estate stocks, and what differences emerge over time and between countries. The analysis is structured around four interrelated research questions. First, the theoretical framework of NAV spreads and their historical development in Europe is presented. Building on this, the study examines which determinants significantly explain NAV spreads. In addition to macroeconomic variables, particular attention is given to internal company metrics such as leverage, size, and payout ratios. Another key focus is the comparison between European markets to identify structural differences and country-specific characteristics. Finally, the study analyzes how NAV spreads have evolved over time and which market phases exhibit distinct patterns. To answer these research questions, the study combines an extensive literature review with quantitative methods. Using panel regression across multiple European countries, empirical relationships between NAV spreads and the identified influencing factors are tested. This is complemented by an analysis of the temporal development of NAV spreads in relation to capital market conditions and macroeconomic cycles. The findings reveal that NAV spreads in Europe are subject to significant fluctuations and are influenced by both macroeconomic factors and firm-specific characteristics Country-specific differences are primarily explained by regulatory frameworks and market structures. During times of crisis, NAV spreads tend to widen considerably, indicating increased investor risk aversion. From a practical perspective, NAV spreads should not be viewed merely as valuation gaps but as indicators of market sentiment and risk perception. Real estate companies and investors can derive valuable strategic insights from observing and analyzing NAV spreads. Overall, the study contributes to a deeper understanding of NAV spreads in European real estate equities, highlights their key drivers, and opens avenues for further research-particularly regarding international comparisons and the role of real estate stocks in diversified portfolio. |
| Keywords: | Immobilienwirtschaft, Aktiengesellschaft, Marktwert, Bestand, Europa |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iiwmps:331870 |
| By: | Lumumba, Brian Omondi; Otieno, David Jakinda; Nyikal, Rose Adhiambo |
| Abstract: | While desert locust invasions threaten agricultural production and household incomes, a common understanding of how to implement integrated control is missing. This study aimed to provide new insights on targeted policies that address the heterogeneity of perspectives held by farmers. To do so, the study compared both R and Q-methodologies to identify perspectives on desert locust management from a sample of 473 farmers. Based on internal consistency checks, the Q-methodology was found to better explain farmers’ perspectives through ranking and identification of distinguishing statements. The four different perspectives were labelled as "threat-aware but unprepared, " “enthusiasts of indigenous control methods, " “proponents of information access, ” and “advocates of timely control and post-recovery assistance." The study also linked the various socio-economic and institutional factors that distinguish farmers across the four perspectives. A key finding is that farmers holding different perspectives agreed that integrated desert locust control is the best strategy. Considering the diversity in farmers' opinions, a mixed-policy framework is essential. Such policies should focus on information access, engagement of community members in desert locust control teams, and targeted post- recovery assistance, which would facilitate the implementation of integrated desert locust management. |
| Keywords: | Farm Management |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344320 |
| By: | Mohamed Chaouch; Thanasis Stengos |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how market competition influences poverty dynamics using a functional econometric framework that captures both contemporaneous and lagged effects. Using annual data for 48 countries from 1991-2017, we estimate function-on-function regressions linking poverty headcount ratios to market concentration and other macroeconomic indicators. The results show that, based on the entire sample, stronger competition initially increased poverty during structural adjustment phases, but its adverse impact weakened after 2010 as economies adapted and efficiency gains emerged. The estimated bivariate surfaces reveal that the effect of competition on poverty often persists over multiple years (around 5 years), highlighting the importance of intertemporal transmission. Then, functional clustering based on market capitalization (MCAP) uncovers strong heterogeneity: pro-poor 5-years lagged effect of competition in low- and medium-MCAP economies, while it remains insignificant to weakly negative in high-MCAP countries. Overall, the findings underscore the value of functional data methods in uncovering evolving and lag-dependent poverty-competition linkages that static panel models fail to capture. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.13875 |
| By: | Cooper Howes; Johannes Matschke; Jordan Pandolfo |
| Abstract: | We use confidential loan-level regulatory data to show that financial constraints can weigh on credit access and employment after a natural disaster at both the local and national level. Banks cut back on lending in disaster areas, particularly to the most financially constrained firms, and these reductions in credit supply lead to larger initial declines and slower subsequent recoveries in employment. Bank profitability is a key driver of this result: Borrowers more reliant on less-profitable lenders obtain fewer loans and pay higher interest rates following disasters. These less-profitable lenders also respond by providing fewer loans and charging higher interest rates to financially constrained borrowers in other unaffected areas. We show that these financial spillovers ultimately distort employment growth. Our findings suggest a potential role for policies that improve access to credit in the aftermath of natural disasters. |
| JEL: | G11 G12 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedkrw:102146 |
| By: | Priyanka Verma; Balagopal Unnikrishnan |
| Abstract: | Fair resource division algorithms, like those implemented in Spliddit platform, have traditionally been considered difficult for the end users to manipulate due to its complexities. This paper demonstrates how Large Language Models (LLMs) can dismantle these protective barriers by democratizing access to strategic expertise. Through empirical analysis of rent division scenarios on Spliddit algorithms, we show that users can obtain actionable manipulation strategies via simple conversational queries to AI assistants. We present four distinct manipulation scenarios: exclusionary collusion where majorities exploit minorities, defensive counterstrategies that backfire, benevolent subsidization of specific participants, and cost minimization coalitions. Our experiments reveal that LLMs can explain algorithmic mechanics, identify profitable deviations, and generate specific numerical inputs for coordinated preference misreporting--capabilities previously requiring deep technical knowledge. These findings extend algorithmic collective action theory from classification contexts to resource allocation scenarios, where coordinated preference manipulation replaces feature manipulation. The implications reach beyond rent division to any domain using algorithmic fairness mechanisms for resource division. While AI-enabled manipulation poses risks to system integrity, it also creates opportunities for preferential treatment of equity deserving groups. We argue that effective responses must combine algorithmic robustness, participatory design, and equitable access to AI capabilities, acknowledging that strategic sophistication is no longer a scarce resource. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.14722 |
| By: | Batabyal, Amitrajeet |
| Abstract: | In this note, we provide the first game-theoretic analysis of taxation and tax shifting when tanneries in Kanpur, India, that produce leather and pollute the Ganges River are taxed. We model the n≥2 tanneries as a Cournot oligopoly and a specific tax τ>0 is imposed on each unit of leather produced by the polluting tanneries. We first determine the symmetric Nash equilibrium output of leather and its price with the tax. Second, we show that the rate of tax shifting by the polluting tanneries is constant. Third, we discuss how increasing either the number of tanneries or the price elasticity of demand affects the tax shifting that takes place. Finally, we comment on the policy implications of constant tax shifting such as the predictability of the incidence of the tax burden. |
| Keywords: | Ganges River, Tannery, Specific Tax, Tax Shifting, Water Pollution |
| JEL: | H22 H23 Q25 |
| Date: | 2025–02–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126594 |
| By: | Chiadmi, Ines |
| Abstract: | The efficacy of information provision policy instruments is proven to complement traditional environmental policies in pollution control. In the agricultural sector, information is notably disseminated through agricultural extension services. In this study, we focus on advisory services that target the improvement of soil and water quality in Flanders, Belgium. Using a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE), we elicit Flemish farmers’ preferences for advisory strategies in terms of the group size, the interaction format, the provenance of the advisors, the theme of guidance activities, the frequency and the cost of participation. The DCE analysis results, accounting for both homogeneous and heterogeneous preferences, indicate a consistent aversion to government-affiliated advisors and sensitivity to the cost attribute. The latent class model reveals two distinct segments: one pragmatic class, which prioritizes face-to-face interactions, private consultants, and cost considerations, and another more engaged class, open to participating in guidance activities as long as they are not led by government advisors, while still exhibiting a negative sensitivity to cost. We are currently investigating the interaction between our DCE results and covariates representing farmers’ satisfaction with existing advisory activities and their tendencies toward information avoidance. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Crop Production/Industries |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes025:356774 |
| By: | Antelo, Manel; Bru, Lluís |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the commercialization of an external, quality-enhancing (product) innovation within a vertically related market, comparing outright sale and licensing. Licensing may involve a royalty of per-unit or ad valorem type and potential adopters are two downstream firms that source a core input from a single upstream supplier. The analysis reveals that the patentholder’s incentive to license the innovation, particularly through per-unit royalties, outweighs that of an outright sale. This form of technology transfer, however, is shown to potentially reduce consumer and social welfare compared to the pre-innovation state, thus providing a rationale for public policy interventions aimed at restricting royalty-based technology transfer. |
| Keywords: | Vertical industry, quality-enhancing product innovation, sale versus licensing, two-part tariff contracts, per-unit royalty, ad-valorem royalty, welfare |
| JEL: | L13 O32 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126850 |
| By: | Kirtley, A. |
| Abstract: | Sustainable development in agricultural trade requires agents to embrace changes to traditional practises that favour conservation and investing into their communities to incite social change. Recently, there has been a shift to prioritise the sustainability of coffee production in developing countries, with many exports now being subject to voluntary sustainability standards (VSS). These VSS apply pressures to farmers to adopt more environmentally and socially conscious production methods. Unfortunately, the uptake of VSS has remained low. To explore potential motives for this low uptake, we present the results of a lab in the field experiment uncovering the effect of information provision and peer influence on the performance of Vietnamese coffee farmers in a repeated one-shot threshold public good game. The purpose of this experiment was to understand whether cooperation towards the provision of a sustainable public good can be increased through information diffusion. This paper endeavoured to highlight a causal link between being more informed and an individual's valuation of sustainability. Estimates of farmer's willingness to contribute revealed that those who discussed information with peers were more likely to invest in sustainability for their community. These findings suggest peer pressure can nudge farmers toward the more socially optimal outcome. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Sustainability |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes025:356628 |
| By: | Arianna Salazar-Miranda |
| Abstract: | The growth of suburbs in the US has led to significant sustainability challenges; yet, it remains unclear whether these challenges stem from the remoteness of suburbs from city centers or the specific designs used to develop them. This paper examines how Garden City Design (GCD) -- one of the most influential suburban design paradigms since the early 20th century -- impacts the social and environmental outcomes of neighborhoods. I first introduce a composite measure of GCD, derived from street layouts and block configurations, to quantify its nationwide adoption. I use this measure combined with mobility and emissions data to estimate the impact of GCD on neighborhood outcomes using complementary identification strategies, including ordinary least squares (OLS), matching estimators, and an instrumental variables (IV) approach that exploits historical variation in GCD adoption. Results show that GCD leads to worse sustainability outcomes, including increased greenhouse gas emissions, greater social isolation, and higher sedentary behavior. The prevalence of GCD accounts for 27-38% of the adverse effects associated with suburbanization, underscoring the crucial role that neighborhood design plays in shaping urban sustainability. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.13544 |
| By: | Michael S. Barr |
| Date: | 2025–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgsq:102143 |