|
on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Vîntu, Denis |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the macroeconomic implications of nominal rigidities in a non-Ricardian economy, where households face borrowing constraints and do not fully internalize the government’s intertemporal budget constraint. Departing from the Ricardian equivalence framework, we show that fiscal policy plays a central role in shaping aggregate demand when nominal wages or prices adjust sluggishly. The interaction between sticky prices, liquidity-constrained households, and active fiscal policy generates non-neutral effects of government spending and taxation, amplifying short-run fluctuations. Using a simplified dynamic model, we demonstrate how nominal rigidities magnify fiscal multipliers and alter the transmission of monetary policy, particularly under conditions of limited asset market participation. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for both non-Ricardian behavior and nominal stickiness when evaluating stabilization policy in economies with incomplete financial markets. |
| Keywords: | Nominal rigidity; Price stickiness; Wage rigidity; Sticky prices; Sticky wages; Inflation persistence; Monetary policy transmission; Labor market inflexibility; Menu costs; Contractual rigidity; New Keynesian economics; Phillips curve; Price adjustment; Wage adjustment; Expectations (rational and adaptive); External shocks; Economic fluctuations; Macro stabilization; Small open economy; Moldova economy (or country-specific context) |
| JEL: | E12 E24 E31 E32 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125865 |
| By: | Karlye Dilts Stedman; Andrew Hanson |
| Abstract: | Using high frequency data, we find that spillovers to the U.S. yield curve from the European Central Bank increased following the Global Financial Crisis, and strengthened when the U.S. normalized policy out of sync with other advanced economies. These spillovers were amplified by a contemporaneous waning in the ”convenience” of Treasuries. This provides evidence for a portfolio balance channel of transmission that is time-varying based on the non-pecuniary characteristics of Treasuries. We rationalize these facts using a two-country model of preferred habitat investors, where time-varying price-elasticity of demand for Treasuries gives rise to time-varying spillovers. |
| Keywords: | treasuries; Convenience yield; monetary policy; international spillovers; quantitative easing; quantitative tightening; preferred habitat |
| JEL: | E44 E52 F42 G12 |
| Date: | 2025–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedkrw:101728 |
| By: | Michael D. Bordo (Rutgers University, NBER, and Hoover Institution); John V. Duca (Oberlin College); Barry E. Jones (Binghamton University) |
| Abstract: | The rise of U.S. inflation in 2021 and 2022 and its partial subsiding have sparked debates about the relative role of supply and demand factors. The initial surge surprised many macroeconomists despite the unprecedented jump in money growth in 2020-21. We find that the relationship between consumption and the theoretically based Divisia M3 measure of money (velocity) can be well modeled both in the short- and long-runs. We use the estimated long-run relationship to calculate the deviation of actual velocity from its long-run equilibrium and incorporate it into a P-Star framework. Our model of velocity significantly improves the performance of the P-Star model relative to using a one-sided HP filter to calculate trend velocity as, for example, used by Belongia and Ireland (2015, 2017). We also include a global supply pressures index in the model and find that recent movements in U.S. inflation largely owed to aggregate demand driven macroeconomic factors that are tracked by Divisia money with a smaller role played by supply factors. |
| Keywords: | Money, Divisia, Inflation, Supply Chain Disruptions |
| JEL: | E51 E41 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:345 |
| By: | Kenji Miyazaki |
| Abstract: | This paper argues and analytically demonstrates that, in a fully analytical Two-Agent New Keynesian model with Rotemberg-type nominal rigidities, monetary transmission is amplified if and only if two conditions hold: first, the heterogeneity-induced IS-slope effect dominates; second, the price-stickiness channel is active. We also show when amplification weakens or disappears, most notably under pure wage stickiness, where the price channel shuts down and the heterogeneity-driven term vanishes. The framework features household heterogeneity between savers and hand-to-mouth households and adheres strictly to microeconomic foundations while avoiding restrictive assumptions on relative wages or labor supply across types that are common in prior analytical work. The closed-form solution makes transparent how price stickiness, wage stickiness, and the share of hand-to-mouth households jointly shape amplification. We further derive a modified aggregate welfare loss function that quantifies how heterogeneity, operating through distributional effects from firm profits, re-weights the relative importance of stabilizing inflation. Overall, the tractable yet micro-founded analytical framework clarifies the interaction between household heterogeneity and nominal rigidities and pinpoints the precise conditions under which monetary policy gains or loses traction. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.12073 |
| By: | Luca Benzoni; Marisa Wernick |
| Abstract: | We examine the 2025 U.S. debt limit episode through the lens of financial markets. First, we document an increase in trading activity in the U.S. sovereign CDS market, and we infer a probability of default from CDS premiums. We find that default risk reached 1% by the November 6 Presidential election, fell quickly after that, and progressively climbed back up in subsequent months to the current 1.1% level. Overall, these estimates are well below the default risk estimates for the debt-limit episodes of 2011, 2013, and 2023, which range from 4% to 6%. Second, so far we only find small distortions in the market for Treasury bills that mature around the “X-date, ” when Treasury is expected to extinguish its existing resources, and thus would be most affected by a hypothetical default. This is in contrast with the 2023 episode, when bills maturing around the X-date traded with a yield that was about 1% higher than those maturing in other months. Third, we discuss the broader consequences that debt-limit events can have for the level of bank reserves at the Federal Reserve, and their implications for money markets liquidity. |
| Keywords: | U.S. Default; Default probability; CDS; Debt limit |
| JEL: | G10 G12 G18 G28 E32 E43 E44 |
| Date: | 2025–05–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:101720 |
| By: | Giorgio Fabbri (Université Grenoble-Alpes, CNRS, INRA); Silvia Faggian (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice); Salvatore Federico (University of Bologna); Fausto Gozzi (Luiss University) |
| Abstract: | This survey collects, within a unified framework, various results (primarily by the authors themselves) on the use of Deterministic Infinite-Dimensional Optimal Control Theory to address applied economic models. The main aim is to illustrate, through several examples, the typical features of such models (including state constraints, non-Lipschitz data, and non-regularizing differential operators) and the corresponding methods needed to handle them. This necessitates developing aspects of the existing Deterministic Infinite-Dimensional Optimal Control Theory (see, e.g., the book by Li and Yong, 2012) in specific and often nontrivial directions. Given the breadth of this area, we emphasize the Dynamic Programming Approach and its application to problems where explicit or quasi-explicit solutions of the associated Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equations can be obtained. We also provide insights and references for cases where such explicit solutions are not available. |
| Keywords: | Optimal Control in Infinite Dimensional Spaces, Dynamic Economic Modelling, Dynamic Programming, Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman Equations |
| JEL: | C61 E12 E22 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2025:16 |
| By: | Malte Londschien |
| Abstract: | We provide an overview of results relating to estimation and weak-instrument-robust inference in instrumental variables regression. Methods are implemented in the ivmodels software package for Python, which we use to illustrate results. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.12474 |
| By: | Sonia Bhalotra (Department of Economics, University of Warwick); N.Meltem Daysal (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Mircea Trandafir (Rockwool Foundation Research Unit) |
| Abstract: | Mental health disorders tend to emerge in childhood, with half starting by age 14. This makes early intervention important, but treatment rates are low, and antidepressant treatment for children remains controversial since an FDA warning in 2004 that highlighted adverse effects. Linking individuals across Danish administrative registers, we provide some of the first evidence of impacts of antidepressant treatment in childhood on objectively measured mental health indicators and economic outcomes over time, and the first attempt to investigate under- vs overtreatment. Leveraging conditional random assignment of patients to psychiatrists with different prescribing tendencies, we find that treatment during ages 8-15 improves test scores at age 16, particularly in Math, increases enrollment in post-compulsory education at age 18, and that it leads to higher employment and earnings and lower welfare dependence at ages 25–30. We demonstrate, on average, a reduction in suicide attempts, self harm, and hospital visits following AD initiation. The gains to treatment are, in general, larger for low SES children, but they are less likely to be treated. Using a marginal treatment effects framework and Math scores as the focal outcome, we show positive returns to treatment among the untreated. Policy simulations confirm that expanding treatment among low SES children (and boys) generates substantial net benefits, consistent with under-treatment in these groups. Our findings underscore the potential of early mental health treatment to improve longer term economic outcomes and reducing inequality. |
| Keywords: | Antidepressants, mental health, education, test scores, human capital, Denmark, physician leniency, marginal treatment effects |
| JEL: | I11 I12 I18 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–09–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kucebi:2509 |
| By: | Liu, Yi; Matsumura, Toshihiro |
| Abstract: | We develop a duopoly model that incorporates fuel diversification, resulting in ex post cost asymmetry between firms. We theoretically examine how common ownership influences welfare. Our findings indicate that welfare decreases (increases) with the degree of common ownership when ex post cost heterogeneity due to fuel diversification is small (large). Furthermore, we identify a potential U-shaped relationship between the degree of common ownership and welfare, an insight not previously documented in the literature. In addition, we demonstrate that common ownership promotes fuel diversification, which may further enhance welfare. |
| Keywords: | overlapping ownership; welfare-improving production substitution; cost asymmetry; fuel choices |
| JEL: | G23 L13 Q42 |
| Date: | 2025–08–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125747 |
| By: | Pablo de la Vega |
| Abstract: | We analyze the potential economic impacts in Argentina of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which as of January 2026 will prohibit the export to the European Union of certain raw materials and related products if they involve the use of deforested land. We estimate that the EUDR would cover around 6 billion US dollars in exported value, but only 2.84% is not compliant with the EUDR, with soy and cattle being the most affected production chains. We use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to simulate the impact of the EUDR on the Argentine economy. If the non-compliant production cannot enter the EU market because of the EUDR, the results of the simulations suggest that the potential macroeconomic impacts are limited: GDP would be reduced by an average of 0.14% with respect to the baseline scenario. However, the potential environmental impact is greater. Deforested hectares would be reduced by 2.45% and GHG emissions by 0.19%. Notwithstanding, EUDR due diligence costs may still prevent compliant production from entering the EU market, so the total impacts could be higher. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.11796 |
| By: | Heger, Dörte; Herr, Annika |
| Abstract: | In diesem Forschungsprojekt zur Versorgung von Langzeitpflege in Deutschland werden fünf Perspektiven zu Personalmangel, Pflegekapazitäten sowie Auswirkungen auf Pflegequalität in Pflegeheimen beleuchtet. Die erste Perspektive betrachtet demografische, sozio-ökonomische und strukturelle Faktoren, die zur Entwicklung des Pflegepersonalmangels beigetragen haben. Die Ergebnisse zeigen im Bereich der Fachkräfte im stationären, aber auch im ambulanten Bereich eine deutliche Zunahme an offenen Stellen und identifizieren strukturelle, sozio-ökonomische sowie über den Bereich der Altenpflege hinausgehende Faktoren. Darüber hinaus wird der Zusammenhang zwischen Pflegepersonalmangel und Pflegekapazitäten analysiert. Hierbei zeigt sich, dass eine höhere Zahl ausgeschriebener Stellen mit einem geringeren Personal-Gepflegten-Verhältnis einhergeht sowie fehlende Fachkräfte durch Hilfskräfte ersetzt werden. Die zweite Perspektive betrachtet wie der Personaleinsatz die Pflegequalität beeinflusst. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass eine höhere Anzahl an examinierten Pflegefachkräften zu besseren Pflegequalitätsergebnissen für Pflegeheimbewohner führt, während Pflegehilfskräfte keinen Einfluss auf die beobachteten objektiven Qualitätsmaße haben. Die dritte Perspektive widmet sich der Analyse der Nachfrage nach ambulanter und stationärer Pflege sowie der Qualität unter Kapazitätsbeschränkungen. Das ist zweigeteilt und konzentriert sich 1) Auf die regionale Variation der Nachfrage nach Pflegeheimen gegeben das Angebot und die Pflegebedürftigkeit und 2) auf die Qualität ambulanter Pflegedienste bei steigender regionaler Dichte, wobei für die Nachfrage kontrolliert wird. Die vierte Perspektive zeigt den Zusammenhand zwischen Krankenhausverweildauer und professionellem Pflegeangebot. Unsere Auswertungen zeigen, dass die Verweildauer für Menschen, die erstmal eine Pflegeheimplatz suchen, höher ist als für Menschen, die bereits vor dem Krankenhausaufenthalt bereits im Pflegeheim lebten oder die nach dem Krankenhausaufenthalt wieder in die eigene Häuslichkeit zurückkehren können. Die fünfte Perspektive untersucht den Effekt von Einzelzimmerquoten. Die Analysen zeigen, dass höhere Einzelzimmeranteile mit einer signifikanten Reduzierung der Kapazitäten in Pflegeheimen einhergehen und sich die Nachfrage in Richtung informeller Pflege verlagert. Insgesamt verdeutlichen diese Perspektiven die Komplexität der Pflegelandschaft und unterstreichen die Dringlichkeit, innovative Lösungen zu finden, um die Qualität der Pflege zu sichern und den wachsenden Herausforderungen der alternden Gesellschaft gerecht zu werden. |
| Abstract: | This research project on long-term care provision in Germany, examines five perspectives on staffing shortages, care capacities, and their impact on the quality of care in nursing homes. The first perspective examines potential demographic, socioeconomic, and structural factors that have contributed to the development of the nursing staff shortage. The results show a considerable increase in vacancies for skilled nurses in nursing homes but also for ambulatory care, and identify structural and socioeconomic factors as well as factors without a direct link to LTC. We further analyze the relationship between a shortage of care personnel and care capacities. Our findings reveal that a higher number of advertised positions is associated with a lower staff-to-patient ratio and that nursing homes compensate for the lack of skilled staff by hiring auxiliary staff. The second perspective second perspective examines how staffing influences care quality. The results show that a higher number of registered nurses leads to better care quality out-comes for nursing home residents, while nursing assistants have no influence on the observed objective quality measures. The third perspective focuses on analyzing the demand for both home and institutional care, as well as quality under capacity constraints. The project focusses on 1) regional variation in demand for nursing homes given supply and care needs and 2) the home health care providers’ quality when density increases controlling for changes in demand. The fourth perspective shows the relationship between hospital length of stay and available professional care. Our analyses show that the length of stay is higher for individuals who seek a nursing home placement for the first time than for individuals who were already living in a nursing home before their hospital stay or who return to their own homes. The fifth perspective examines the impact of introduced single-room quotas. Our initial analyses indicate that higher shares of single rooms correlate with a significant reduction in care capacities in nursing homes and a shift in demand towards informal care. Overall, these perspectives underscore the complexity of the care landscape and emphasize the urgency of finding innovative solutions to ensure the quality of care and meet the growing challenges of an aging society. |
| Keywords: | Abschlussbericht, DFG-Projekt, Langzeitpflege, Pflegequalität, Gesundheitsökonomie |
| JEL: | I11 I13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:325315 |
| By: | Amélie Bourceret (CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes, UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Sophie Drogué (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Guzel Kadriye Kardelen (CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes, UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | Les systèmes agricoles étant de plus en plus complexes, les approches de modélisation avancées sont cruciales pour comprendre la dynamique et combler les lacunes. Cette étude systématique examine l'intégration de la modélisation basée sur les agents (ABM) et de la programmation mathématique (MP) dans les contextes agricoles. Nous avons analysé les études sélectionnées répondant aux critères d'inclusion, en caractérisant les structures des modèles, les processus de décision, les interactions entre les agents et les forces/limites comparatives. Les résultats révèlent diverses applications couvrant la gestion des ressources, l |
| Keywords: | Systèmes agricoles, Programmation mathématique, Modélisation basée sur des agents, Décision des agriculteurs |
| Date: | 2024–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05216767 |
| By: | Pedro J. Torres L. (Centro de Estudios Espinosa Yglesias) |
| Abstract: | En este estudio, el autor sigue una técnica de imputación para reconstruir los ingresos de los hogares en la Encuesta ESRU de Movilidad Social en México 2023 (ESRU-EMOVI 2023) utilizando la Encuesta Nacional de Ingresos y Gastos de los Hogares 2022 (ENIGH 2022) como conjunto de datos donante. Al combinar los indicadores de educación, ocupación y activos, construye índices multidimensionales de estatus socioeconómico y evalúa su capacidad para predecir el ingreso imputado. El análisis revela una heterogeneidad regional sustancial: la educación y la riqueza son los predictores más fuertes en el sur de México, mientras que los indicadores ocupacionales tienen un mayor poder explicativo en las regiones norte y centro. Las diferencias de género son relativamente modestas, pero indican un rendimiento predictivo ligeramente superior de los indicadores del nivel socioeconómico entre las mujeres. En general, los resultados subrayan la necesidad de contar con estrategias de selección o imputación de variables sustitutivas específicas para cada contexto, con el fin de mejorar las políticas públicas dirigidas a combatir la pobreza y las desigualdades. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auk:ecosoc:2025_9 |
| By: | Ioannides, Yannis M; Ngai, L. Rachel |
| Abstract: | We approach the literature on housing and inequality from two angles. One is the impact of unequal endowments on housing. The second is the “memberships” inequality associated with neighborhoods, namely, households’ location in a geographic and social context. We elaborate on these two angles of inequality and focus on three distinctive features of housing: consumption, capital, and location. For owner-occupants, capital and consumption are bundled together in a single good. For both renters and owner-occupants, housing consumption inequality, access to good neighborhoods, and housing wealth follow from unequal endowments. Housing can propagate inequality by enabling owner-occupants to use it as collateral for other investments or to secure higher returns to human capital investments through the better schools in better neighborhoods. We use this approach to analyze key aspects of housing and inequality, paying special attention to the impacts of racial discrimination and segregation. |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2025–09–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127648 |
| By: | Stijn Bruers; Evaluator 2; Nicolas Treich; David Reinstein |
| Abstract: | Evaluation Summary and Metrics: "Population ethical intuitions" for The Unjournal. |
| Date: | 2025–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bjn:evalua:evalsumpopintuitions |
| By: | Elżbieta Babula (UG - University of Gdańsk); Juhyun Park (LaMME - Laboratoire de Mathématiques et Modélisation d'Evry - ENSIIE - Ecole Nationale Supérieure d'Informatique pour l'Industrie et l'Entreprise - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, ENSIIE - Ecole Nationale Supérieure d'Informatique pour l'Industrie et l'Entreprise) |
| Abstract: | Tversky and Kahneman's cumulative prospect theory assumes symmetric probability cumulation with regard to the reference point in decision weights. Theoretically, this model should be fixed despite a change in the direction of probability cumulation. We investigate this phenomenon by proposing an alternative model with one-direction probability cumulation. By doing so, we create a reference model that allows us to verify the parameter interactions in cumulative prospect theory specifications. We apply the simultaneous parametric fitting of utility and weighting functions using binary choice data from our own incentivized choice experiment (N = 70). We consider two parametric forms of probability weighting functions, namely, the one-parameter Tversky–Kahneman and two-parameter Prelec functions. We find that the Prelec function is sufficiently flexible to make these two models equivalent, thereby preserving the stability of the utility parameters. We also observe parameter interactions in the other specifications, especially with the Tversky–Kahneman weighting function. |
| Keywords: | parameter interactions, rank-dependent utility, decision weights, cumulative prospect theory |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05231129 |
| By: | Sun, Xichen (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Fang, F. (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); van de Kerkhof, R.M. (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:7dd6751d-bcf2-4ed5-87ad-4da42b112f46 |
| By: | MENG, WEI |
| Abstract: | Under the threat window of ‘interception first, decryption later’ in quantum computing, national security and industrial sovereignty face new systemic challenges. This paper proposes a dual-track approach of ‘PQC baseline + QKD enhancement’ to comprehensively compare the standard systems, governance models, and engineering progress of China and the United States in post-quantum cryptography (PQC) and quantum key distribution (QKD). The study employs a three-tier evidence integration framework of ‘policy-standards-engineering, ’ combining authoritative documents from NIST, OMB, CISA, and other sources with China's national standard platform and industry announcements. It constructs an analysis model of ‘standard hierarchy-migration ecosystem-international interoperability’ and evaluates the feasibility of the scheme through gap-risk mapping, roadmap design, and KPI matrix assessment. The results show that the United States has established a closed-loop system of ‘primary standards + redundancy’ based on FIPS 203/204/205 and HQC backup algorithms, and has entered an auditable implementation phase driven by mandatory migration and toolchain initiatives from OMB and CISA; China maintains an advantage in QKD engineering and standardisation, but national standards for PQC have not yet been solidified, and the migration governance system lags behind, resulting in a structural shortfall of ‘engineering leading the way while algorithm standards lag behind.’ Based on this, this paper proposes a ‘three-year-five-year-ten-year’ national roadmap: establish a standardised baseline within three years, achieve large-scale migration and verification within five years, and complete consolidation and internationalisation within ten years. This will be supplemented by protocols, PKI/certificates, key lifecycle management, testing and certification, and algorithm switching mechanisms, in conjunction with a five-tier governance structure led by the State Cryptography Administration, with TC260/TC485 as the technical focal points, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology/ the Cyberspace Administration of China/People's Bank of China, operator and critical infrastructure implementation, and research institutes. The conclusion states that PQC must be established as the ‘basic defence line’ in the quantum era, while QKD should serve as the ‘enhanced defence line’ for critical links; China must complete the construction of PQC national standards and migration governance capabilities within a three-year standardisation, five-year consolidation, and ten-year internationalisation timeline, and achieve dual-track integration and international interoperability with the QKD standard suite, thereby safeguarding national security, consolidating industrial resilience, and enhancing international influence. |
| Date: | 2025–08–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:du3qw_v1 |
| By: | Lee, David |
| Abstract: | Financial market data are known to be far from normal and replete with outliers, i.e., “dirty” data that contain errors. Data errors introduce extreme or aberrant data points that can significantly distort parameter estimation results. This paper proposes a robust estimation approach to achieve stable and accurate results. The robust estimation approach is particularly applicable for financial data that often features the three situations we are protecting against: occasional rogue values (outliers), small errors and underlying non-normality. |
| Keywords: | robust parameter estimation, financial market data, market data simulation, risk factor. |
| JEL: | C13 C15 C53 C63 G17 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125703 |
| By: | Evaluator 1; Ioannis Bournakis; David Reinstein |
| Abstract: | Evaluation Summary and Metrics: "The Effect of Public Science on Corporate R&D" for The Unjournal. |
| Date: | 2025–05–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bjn:evalua:evalsumpublicscience |
| By: | Pedro Albarr\'an; Antonio Robles; Anna Sanz-de-Galdeano |
| Abstract: | Colombia's prolonged conflict has made the country one of the most affected by forced internal displacement (FID) in the world. This study examines the impact of the FARC's 2014 unilateral and permanent ceasefire on FID. We use a difference-in-differences strategy that exploits the timing of the ceasefire and the pre-conflict distribution of FARC presence across municipalities. Results show a substantial reduction in severe displacement episodes in affected areas, with effects that emerged gradually and persisted over time. These findings highlight the importance of stability and the effective implementation of peace agreements in mitigating FID and its far-reaching consequences. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.20662 |
| By: | Hamjediers, Maik (European University Institute) |
| Abstract: | Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked a turning point in European security politics. In this context, the population's willingness to fight is often interpreted as an indicator of societal inclination toward military self-defense and a precondition for strengthening defensive capacities. Yet, causal evidence on what shapes this willingness remains limited, and studies on the effects of Russia's invasion on public attitudes have been largely confined to European countries. I employ Russia's invasion within an unexpected event during survey design to estimate its impact on respondents' willingness to fight for their own country. Drawing on data from the World Values Survey in the Czech Republic and Uruguay, the analysis reveals a significant increase in willingness to fight among Czech respondents -- a country geographically and historically proximate to Russia -- but no comparable effect in Uruguay. These findings offer novel causal evidence that proximate interstate conflict can increase willingness to fight for one's country, which contributes to broader debates on conscription and military security. |
| Date: | 2025–08–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:p6xf4_v1 |
| By: | Dibiasi, Andreas; Erhardt, Katharina |
| Abstract: | This paper studies heterogeneous firm responses to a sudden trade-induced profitability shock - the 2015 Swiss franc appreciation. Using firm-level investment data and a novel measure of exposure, we document that this trade shock causes large and persistent investment declines among affected firms. Examining heterogeneous responses among firms with similar exposure, we find that differences in responsiveness are not explained by economic fundamentals but are strongly linked to firm age and managerial experience. Younger firms and those led by less experienced managers react substantially more strongly. We argue that these empirical patterns are consistent with a model of Bayesian learning, in which firms update their beliefs about profitability over time. The results provide important insights into the long-lasting effects of trade shocks on business dynamism, capital investment, and local employment. |
| Keywords: | Trade shocks, Firm-level investment, Exchange rate shocks |
| JEL: | F14 D22 G31 L25 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:324872 |
| By: | Dora Costa; Ziqi Zhao |
| Abstract: | We examine disparities in acquittal rates and sentencing for Black and White soldiers in the US Civil War using all general courts-martial. We find that Blacks were disproportionately punished for group actions like mutiny and for violent crimes involving group violence, suggesting fears of large-scale rebellion influenced justice. However, we also uncover a system that was fair relative to many modern criminal courts in acquittals and in death sentences. The needs of the Army pushed towards fairness. |
| JEL: | J71 K42 N41 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34184 |
| By: | Philippe Andrade; Alexander Dietrich; Sophie Handley; John Leer; Raphael Schoenle; Jenny Tang; Egon Zakrajšek |
| Abstract: | A large body of research demonstrates that uncertainty affects many dimensions of firms’ decisions, from investment and hiring to pricing and profitability. To gain a better understanding of how uncertainty induced by shifting trade policy shapes the behavior of small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) the authors surveyed decision-makers at SMBs. The survey, administered by Morning Consult, was conducted in three waves: in December 2024, February 2025, and late April 2025. Each wave contained a nationally representative sample of about 600 SMBs. |
| Keywords: | business expectations; surveys; tariffs; uncertainty |
| JEL: | F13 F40 D22 D81 C83 |
| Date: | 2025–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbcq:101698 |
| By: | Seth Ariel Green |
| Date: | 2025–07–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bjn:evalua:aflv6m1e |
| By: | von Daniels, Laura |
| Abstract: | The United States (US) and European Union (EU) are at risk of entering a full-blown trade war. Three months ago, on "Liberation Day", US President Donald Trump imposed high import tariffs on almost all countries, including the EU. He then suspended them at short notice to negotiate with over 90 of the affected trading partners. At the beginning of July, when the tariffs were due to come into force, Trump again postponed the tariffs on the EU and other countries by an additional month. In a letter to the EU, Trump threatened higher tariffs, namely 30 per cent, from 1 August. This back and forth shows that Member States must prepare for an escalation of the conflict - one that could go far beyond tariffs and even jeopardise the security of the EU. |
| Keywords: | USA, EU, Germany, Donald Trump, European Commission, Federal Government, tariff policy, tariff dispute, tariff war, trade war, trade instruments, tariffs, import tariffs, "reciprocal tariffs", ACI, Anti-Coercion Instrument, security of the EU, Nato, Greenland |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:324886 |