|
on Investment |
| By: | Majer, Sarah; Boelhauve, Patrick; Hasch, Joachim; Ohlmeyer, Martin |
| Abstract: | Die verstärkte Nutzung von Holz als nachhaltigen Baustoff bietet ein erhebliches Potenzial zur Reduktion der CO₂-Emissionen im Bauwesen. Gleichzeitig stellt die natürliche Variabilität von Holzprodukten, insbesondere deren flüchtige organische Verbindungen (VOCs), eine Herausforderung für die Raumluftqualität dar. Monoterpene wie »-Pinen und 3-Caren dominieren die Emissionen von Kiefernholz und stehen im Fokus aktueller Forschung zur Bewertung und Reduktion von VOC-Emissionen und -Expositionen. Die standardisierte Vorgehensweise zur Analyse von Emissionen, die auf der Prüfkammermethode gemäß DIN EN 16516:2017 basiert, ist zeitaufwändig. In vorliegenden Projektbericht wird dargestellt, dass die Nahinfrarot-Spektroskopie (NIR) in Verbindung mit multivariaten Analysemethoden eine effiziente und präzise Alternative bieten kann. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass mit der NIR-Technologie zuverlässige Vorhersagemodelle für Terpenemissionen aus Kiefernholz erstellt werden konnten. Für »-Pinen und 3-Caren wurden dabei kreuzvalidierte Korrelationskoeffizienten von R²CV = 0, 77 erzielt, was auf eine gute Modellgüte hinweist. Die mittlere Abweichung der Kreuzvalidierung (RMSECV) betrug 1.257 μg/m³ für »-Pinen und 1.232 μg/m³ für 3-Caren. Diese Modelle ermöglichen eine schnelle Bewertung der Produktemissionen, wobei die Modellgenauigkeit insbesondere bei mittleren und höheren Konzentrationen überzeugt. Einschränkungen bestehen jedoch in niedrigen Konzentrationsbereichen, was die Anwendung der Methode in solchen Fällen begrenzt. Die Anwendbarkeit auf Holz-Materialien wie Strands (lange, schlanke Späne), die zur Herstellung von OSB verwendet werden, zeigte sich aufgrund von Transmissionseffekten und der hohen spektralen Variabilität als problematisch. Um die Technologie für Holzwerkstoffe nutzbar zu machen, sind weiterentwickelte Kalibrationsansätze erforderlich. Insgesamt stellt die NIR-Technologie eine vielversprechende Ergänzung zu bestehenden Analysemethoden dar und eröffnet neue Perspektiven für die nachhaltige Verarbeitung von Holzprodukten... |
| Abstract: | The increased use of wood as a sustainable building material offers significant potential for reducing CO₂ emissions in the construction sector. At the same time, the natural variability of wood products, particularly their volatile organic compounds (VOCs), poses challenges for indoor air quality. Monoterpenes such as »-pinene and 3-carene dominate the emissions of pine wood and are the focus of current research aimed at assessing and reducing VOC emissions and exposure. The standardized approach to emission analysis, based on the chamber method according to DIN EN 16516:2017, is time-consuming. This project report demonstrates that near-infrared spectroscopy (NIR), combined with multivariate analytical methods, can provide an efficient and precise alternative. The results show that reliable predictive models for terpene emissions from pine wood could be developed using NIR technology. For »-pinene and 3-carene, cross-validated correlation coefficients of R²CV = 0.77 were achieved, indicating good model quality. The mean deviation in cross-validation (RMSECV) was 1, 257 μg/m³ for »-pinene and 1, 232 μg/m³ for 3-carene. These models enable a rapid evaluation of product emissions, with model accuracy performing particularly well at medium and higher concentrations. However, limitations exist in the lower concentration range, which restricts the applicability of the method in such cases. The applicability to wood materials such as strands (long, thin chips) used for the production of OSB, proved problematic due to transmission effects and high spectral variability. To make the technology usable for woodbased materials, advanced calibration approaches are required.Overall, NIR technology represents a promising complement to existing analytical methods and opens up new perspectives for the sustainable processing of wood products... |
| Keywords: | NIR-Spektroskopie, VOC, Terpene, Kiefernholz, NIR-spectroscopy, VOC, terpenes, pine wood |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:jhtire:325822 |
| By: | Rödel, Bodo |
| Abstract: | Der Journal Impact Factor (JIF) ist eine zentrale, aber umstrittene Metrik in der Wissenschaft. Die Publikation informiert grundlegend zum Thema JIF und geht dabei auch auf seine Entstehungsgeschichte ein. Außerdem wird die Kritik am JIF dargestellt. Neben diesem Überblick werden Ergebnisse einer BIBB-Umfrage zur Wahrnehmung des JIF in der Berufsbildungsforschung präsentiert. Diese zeigen eine ambivalente Haltung: Während der JIF als wichtig für die Reputation und Karriere anerkannt wird, wird seine Aussagekraft über die Qualität einzelner Arbeiten kritisch hinterfragt. |
| Keywords: | Journal Impact Factor, JIF, Journal Ranking, wissenschaftliches Publizieren, Berufsbildungsforschung, Impact und Qualität wissenschaftlicher Forschung, Zitationen, Reputation, h-Index, CiteScore |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bibbfb:325320 |
| By: | Rossmann, Felix; Greitens, Jan; Knoll, Lisa |
| Abstract: | Sustainable finance regulations and initiatives across Europe have predominantly targeted large corporations, while small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are increasingly drawn into the framework, often facing challenges such as resource constraints and complex documentation requirements. To capture the dynamics of this field, a European survey conducted in 2025 with responses mainly from German and Austrian companies examined SME engagement with sustainable finance. The findings show a rising share of SMEs investing in sustainability in comparison to the preceding study in 2023, with internal funding as the dominant source. Where external financing is used, it is primarily activated on publicly supported bank loans, whereas capital markets remain largely irrelevant for SMEs. While a connection between sustainability data collection and sustainable investment exists, many SMEs invest without systematically collecting data. These results highlight the continued centrality of traditional banking relationships as the main external financing channel for SMEs, which could serve to enable and facilitate capital flows toward sustainability rather than prescribe or direct them. |
| Keywords: | Sustainable Finance, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises, Sustainability Investment, Sustainability Reporting, Bank Financing |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfswop:325834 |
| By: | Olivier Arsene (EESC-GEM Grenoble Ecole de Management, CERGAM de Toulon - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille/Equipe de recherche de Toulon - CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon - IAE Toulon - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Toulon - UTLN - Université de Toulon); Claudio Vitari (CERGAM de Toulon - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille/Equipe de recherche de Toulon - CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon - IAE Toulon - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Toulon - UTLN - Université de Toulon, LEST - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Sociologie du Travail - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Healthcare professionals in France face significant challenges, including workforce shortages, rising administrative burdens, and high job demands, which contribute to professional strain and burnout. Health Information Technologies (HIT) have emerged as potential resources to mitigate these stressors by enhancing efficiency and care quality. However, the interplay between job demands and the perceived usefulness of HIT in reducing strain remains underexplored. This study applies the Job Demand-Resource (JD-R) model to healthcare professionals to investigate how job demands influence HIT's ability to function as a perceived useful resource for strain moderation. We hypothesize an inverted U-shaped relationship, where HIT usefulness increases with job demands up to a threshold, beyond which technostress diminishes its benefits. A quantitative survey will assess these dynamics among French healthcare professionals. Findings aim to inform policymakers and developers on designing HIT solutions that effectively support healthcare workers without exacerbating their strain. |
| Keywords: | Strain, French Healthcare, Perceived Usefulness, Job Demand-Resource, Health IT |
| Date: | 2025–08–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:gemptp:hal-05251766 |
| By: | Manuel Hidalgo Pérez (Universidad Pablo de Olavide); Natalia Collado (Universidad de Comillas); Ángel Martínez Jorge (AFI) |
| Abstract: | The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 severely disrupted energy markets, triggering a spike in global oil prices. To mitigate the impact on consumers, Spain introduced a fuel discount of 20 cents per liter, effective until the end of 2022. This study assesses the pass-through of the discount to retail prices using a combination of regression discontinuity (RD), difference-in-differences (DiD), and quantile regression approaches with daily data from over 11, 000 Spanish petrol stations. We analyze how different types of operators—vertically integrated, branded, and independent—responded to the policy and examine its impact on the retail price distribution. The results reveal a negative relationship between a station’s initial price and the pass-through of the discount, with lower-priced stations raising prices more in response to the policy. This pattern is particularly pronounced for diesel and among independent and retailer-managed branded stations, which captured a larger share of the subsidy. The quantile regressions further highlight that price increases were concentrated in the lower end of the price distribution, amplifying differences across station types. However, our DiD analysis shows that these effects were temporary, with price differentials gradually converging after approximately 36 to 43 days. Overall, the findings highlight how generalized public discounts can temporarily distort market dynamics and affect competitive conditions in the market. The study offers insights for the design of future subsidy programs, particularly regarding the role of market structure and financial constraints in shaping pass-through. |
| Keywords: | pass-through, discount, retail fuel prices, market structure, regression discontinuity, DiD, quantile regression. |
| JEL: | D12 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pab:wpaper:25.01 |
| By: | Mukherjee, Srutakirti; Raimi, Daniel (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | Place-based policies designed to support fossil fuel–dependent communities are emerging in the United States and abroad. However, there has been little analysis to understand which, if any, existing place-based economic development policies can serve as models in the energy transition. In this analysis, we review the empirical evidence on the effectiveness of three major federally funded place-based economic development programs, then assess their relevance to the energy transition. We find that existing policies, depending on their design details, can be effective in directing investment and improving local economic outcomes in targeted locations. However, these programs can contribute to neighborhood gentrification, and economic benefits may flow primarily to residents living outside the targeted community. Adapting any of these policies to an energy transition context would require changes in eligibility criteria, geographic targeting, selection mechanisms, and more. We offer several conceptual models for how such policies could be structured but caution that much additional research and community engagement will be needed to determine which mix of interventions is likely to be most effective in ensuring an equitable transition toward a clean energy future. |
| Date: | 2023–11–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:report:rp-23-16 |
| By: | Heikkinen, Joni; Heimonen, Kari |
| Abstract: | This paper examines online search activity's ability to capture consumers' intentions and enhance short-term forecasting of key economic outcomes. Economic decisions such as consumption and investment are typically preceded by intentions, which, while difficult to observe directly, often manifest as online information-seeking behavior. Using a large, high-frequency dataset of search activity, we nowcast U.S. consumer confidence and private consumption, finding that legal and governmental searches are associated with shifts in consumer confidence, while real estate and news-related searches add value to forecasts of private consumption. We then extend the analysis to GDP nowcasting for selected OECD economies, assessing the predictive performance of search-based indicators across different contexts. Overall, our findings highlight the value of digital attention data as behaviorally grounded signals of consumer intentions, offering a timely complement to traditional economic indicators. |
| Keywords: | nowcasting, online search behavior, consumer confidence, private consumption, GDP growth |
| JEL: | E30 E32 E37 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:325480 |
| By: | Mookerjee, Mehreen; Ojha, Manini; Roy, Sanket; Yadav, Kartik |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between alcohol consumption and women's empowerment. Drawing on two rounds of nationally representative NFHS data from India and employing a difference-in-differences strategy, we show that a sharp decline in alcohol availability due to an alcohol prohibition policy, led to significant gains in women's agency. Women report greater decision-making power in health care, large household purchases, family visits, and the use of husbands' earnings, with effects ranging from 11.2 to 14.2 percentage points. We also find improvements in women's mobility and reductions in barriers to seeking medical care. A key mechanism appears to be a reduction in husbands' alcohol consumption, accompanied by a decline in reported control issues. Our results are robust across alternative estimation strategies, outcome definitions, placebo and falsification tests, and alternative treatment-control specifications. Heterogeneity analysis indicates particularly strong effects for rural, poorer, and socially disadvantaged women, underscoring the potential of alcohol control policies to enhance women's empowerment in patriarchal contexts. |
| Keywords: | empowerment, agency, decision-making, alcohol consumption, alcohol ban, India |
| JEL: | D78 J16 D12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1662 |
| By: | Georgy Lukyanov; David Li |
| Abstract: | This paper studies an infinite-horizon framework in which two large populations of players are randomly matched to play a Prisoner's Dilemma. Each player lives for two consecutive periods: as a young player from one group, and then as an old player in the other group. Each population has a known fraction of honest types - individuals who always cooperate unless paired with a player who has been observed to defect against a cooperating partner in the past. Because such defections (i.e., breakdowns of trust) are publicly observed, any defector risks carrying a stigma into future interactions. We show that when the benefits from defection are sufficiently large, there exists an equilibrium in which an increase in the fraction of honest types can reduce the likelihood of cooperation. Moreover, we demonstrate that introducing imperfect public memory - allowing past misdeeds to be probabilistically "cleared" - does not enhance cooperation. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.04748 |
| By: | Gräf, Miriam; Jacquemin, Philippe; Hendriks, Patrick; Wahl, Nihal |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a pivotal force in organisational transformation. With enhanced communication capabilities, AI systems are evolving beyond supportive functions, stepping into decision-making and leadership roles. As remote work becomes the norm and efficiency remains crucial, AI provides a transformative edge to virtual teams (VTs) that rely on digital tools for collaboration. A leader’s presence is essential for cohesion, motivation, and the overall success of VTs, where physical distance and asynchronous communication pose challenges. This study employs a design science approach to develop an AI leader based on the “characteristics of effective VT leaders” as kernel theory. We developed an AI leader through three design cycles using expert interviews with VT members (N=24) and focus group discussions (N=28) involving VT members and AI experts. Our findings support the transition to AI leaders and suggest a fundamental redefinition of leadership roles that could reshape the future of work. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:156708 |
| By: | Boring, Anne |
| Abstract: | En matière de choix d’études supérieures, de nettes différences caractérisent les jeunes femmes et les jeunes hommes, tant dans les injonctions parentales perçues que dans leurs affinités pour certaines matières et leurs motivations personnelles. Ces écarts se retrouvent également dans leurs anticipations professionnelles, leurs attentes vis-à -vis des caractéristiques de l’emploi et le niveau de salaire attendu. Les choix des uns et des autres semblent ainsi obéir à une constellation de préférences cohérentes, où notamment, ceux – ou plutôt celles – qui choisissent une filière conduisant à un métier moins bien rémunéré, privilégient consciemment la passion à la rémunération. |
| Keywords: | France, Orientation, Études, Genre |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:notobe:2518 |
| By: | Vincent Boucher; Aristide Houndetoungan |
| Abstract: | We study the estimation of peer effects through social networks when researchers do not observe the entire network structure. Special cases include sampled networks, censored networks, and misclassified links. We assume that researchers can obtain a consistent estimator of the distribution of the network. We show that this assumption is sufficient for estimating peer effects using a linear-in-means model. We provide an empirical application to the study of peer effects on students' academic achievement using the widely used Add Health database, and show that network data errors have a large downward bias on estimated peer effects. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.08145 |
| By: | Sabbagh, Helena; Biebeler, Hendrik |
| Abstract: | Die vorliegende Studie arbeitet für den Beruf Kauffrau/Kaufmann für Büromanagement heraus, welche Instrumente und Verfahren Betriebe im Ausbildungsprozess einsetzen, um eine gelingende Ausbildung zu gewährleisten. Die Untersuchung ermöglicht einen Einblick in die konkrete Ausgestaltung und Nutzung von Planungs- und Gestaltungshilfen in der Ausbildungspraxis. Darunter fallen - neben den verbindlichen Elementen betrieblicher Ausbildungsplan und Berichtsheft - weitere freiwillige Evaluierungs- und Feedbackmaßnahmen. In der Studie wurden 238 Telefoninterviews mit Ausbildungsverantwortlichen und 13 betriebliche Fallbeispiele zum Beruf Kauffrau/Kaufmann für Büromanagement ausgewertet. Dabei werden die drei Ausbildungsbereiche Handwerk, Industrie und Handel sowie öffentlicher Dienst miteinander verglichen. |
| Keywords: | Betriebliche Berufsausbildung, Kaufmann für Büromanagement, Ausbildungsplanung, Ausbildungskonzeption, Ausbildungsnachweis, Qualitätssicherung, Ausbildungsbereich, Vergleich, Fallbeispiel, Befragung |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bibbfb:325328 |
| By: | Beatrice Acciaio; Mathias Beiglb\"ock; Evgeny Kolosov; Gudmund Pammer |
| Abstract: | Strassen's theorem asserts that for given marginal probabilities $\mu, \nu$ there exists a martingale starting in $\mu$ and terminating in $\nu$ if and only if $\mu, \nu$ are in convex order. From a financial perspective, it guarantees the existence of market-consistent martingale pricing measures for arbitrage-free prices of European call options and thus plays a fundamental role in robust finance. Arbitrage-free prices of American options demand a stronger version of martingales which are 'biased' in a specific sense. In this paper, we derive an extension of Strassen's theorem that links them to an appropriate strengthening of the convex order. Moreover, we provide a characterization of this order through integrals with respect to compensated Poisson processes. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.13041 |
| By: | Antoni, Manfred (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Dollmann, Jörg (MZES); Schmucker, Alexandra (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Weißmann, Markus (MZES) |
| Abstract: | "This data report describes the linked data of the Children of Immigrants Longitudinal Survey in Four European Countries - Germany Sample with administrative data of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Forschungsdatenzentrum ; Datensatzbeschreibung ; IAB-Datensatz Children of Immigrants Longitudinal Survey in Four European Countries - Germany verknüpft mit administrativen Daten des IAB ; 10.5164/IAB.CILS4EU-DE-ADIAB7523.de.en.v1 |
| Date: | 2025–07–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfda:202505(de) |
| By: | Vîntu, Denis; Balaban, Georgiana |
| Abstract: | This paper presents two objectives: in the first part, we make a presentation of interest rate equations in a historical overview, from Irwing Fisher to John Maynard Keynes. Second part is designed to quarterly estimated structural macro econometric model for the Republic of Moldova, denoted A Classical Macroeconometric Data Model for the Republic of Moldova (MDM) in context of Neo-Classical Approach of the Economy. This model has been developed with four uses in mind: the assessment of economic conditions in the Republic of Moldova, macroeconomic forecasting, policy analysis and deepening understanding of the functioning of market economy. |
| Keywords: | Republic of Moldova, macroeconometric modelling, open and small economy; inflation; interest rate; economic growth; Classical economics; Keynesian economics. |
| JEL: | C13 E21 E30 E41 E44 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125856 |
| By: | Kerola, Eeva; Laine, Olli-Matti; Paavola, Aleksi |
| Abstract: | This study examines the floating rate channel-a mechanism through which monetary policy affects firms' investment and credit demand based on their exposure to variable rate loans. Using a granular loan-level dataset from the euro area, we find that firms with variable rate loans significantly reduce their investment-related borrowing after monetary tightening, compared to firms with fixed rate loans. This effect is most pronounced among the smallest firms, consistent with the theoretical view that the floating rate channel is explained by financial constraints. Our results highlight the heterogeneity in firms' reactions to interest rate changes and underscore the importance of accounting for firm size and financial constraints in monetary policy analysis. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, floating rate channel, euro area |
| JEL: | G21 G30 E52 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:325483 |
| By: | Rodrigo Fracalossi de Moraes (IPC) |
| Keywords: | Climate; Climate change; Climate injustice; Climate debt |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:idpben:003 |
| By: | Beyene, Winta |
| Abstract: | I study the informational value of community resilience in credit markets during natural disasters. Exploiting a severe flood in Germany in 2013, I combine loan-level data on car loans with a composite measure of community resilience based on structural local characteristics linked to disaster recovery capacity. After the flood, only low-income borrowers faced credit tightening, but in high-resilience areas they experienced smaller rate hikes and maintained access to credit. Resilience also predicts repayment after disasters, yet banks ignore it in normal times. This state-contingent reliance shows that community resilience enters credit pricing only in crises, when its information content beyond standard borrower characteristics is valuable enough to justify adoption. |
| Keywords: | Financial resilience, natural disasters, social capital, consumer credit |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:325484 |
| By: | Aniket Baksy; Daniele Caratelli; Luke M. Olson |
| Abstract: | Cyber risk analysis reveals that mid-size firms face the highest vulnerability while small firms are less targeted and large firms are well-defended. |
| Date: | 2025–09–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ofr:ofrblg:25-12 |
| By: | Hongcheng Li |
| Abstract: | This paper studies contracting in the presence of externalities with a non-contractible outsider. Multiple equilibria arise from strategic symmetry between the insider agent and the outsider. To address strategic uncertainty, the principal guarantees their actions in a unique equilibrium. A novel duality approach reformulates her problem as a series of problems in which she selects agent expectations. The key constraint is that the principal cannot convince the agent to expect non-guaranteed response from the outsider. Due to strategic rents, the principal optimally induces attenuated agent incentives. With completely symmetric strategic dependence, her coordination and commitment power become perfect substitutes; in addition, public contracting can strictly decrease her surplus compared to private contracting, in sharp contrast with the case where she ignores robustness. Applications include regulating international competition, platform design, and labor union contracting. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.06267 |
| By: | Arthur Lewbel; Xi Qu; Xun Tang |
| Abstract: | We propose an adjusted 2SLS estimator for social network models when reported binary network links are misclassified (some zeros reported as ones and vice versa) due, e.g., to survey respondents' recall errors, or lapses in data input. We show misclassification adds new sources of correlation between the regressors and errors, which makes all covariates endogenous and invalidates conventional estimators. We resolve these issues by constructing a novel estimator of misclassification rates and using those estimates to both adjust endogenous peer outcomes and construct new instruments for 2SLS estimation. A distinctive feature of our method is that it does not require structural modeling of link formation. Simulation results confirm our adjusted 2SLS estimator corrects the bias from a naive, unadjusted 2SLS estimator which ignores misclassification and uses conventional instruments. We apply our method to study peer effects in household decisions to participate in a microfinance program in Indian villages. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.07343 |
| By: | Xunkang Tian |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the identification of marginal treatment responses within multi-valued treatment models. Extending the hyper-rectangle model introduced by Lee and Salanie (2018), this paper relaxes restrictive assumptions, including the requirement of known treatment selection thresholds and the dependence of treatments on all unobserved heterogeneity. By incorporating an additional ranked treatment assumption, this study demonstrates that the marginal treatment responses can be identified under a broader set of conditions, either point or set identification. The framework further enables the derivation of various treatment effects from the marginal treatment responses. Additionally, this paper introduces a hypothesis testing method to evaluate the effectiveness of policies on treatment effects, enhancing its applicability to empirical policy analysis. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.05177 |
| By: | Wenze Li |
| Abstract: | Instrumental variable (IV) regression is recognized as one of the five core methods for causal inference, as identified by Angrist and Pischke (2008). This paper compares two leading approaches to inference under weak identification for just-identified IV models: the classical Anderson-Rubin (AR) procedure and the recently popular tF method proposed by Lee et al. (2022). Using replication data from the American Economic Review (AER) and Monte Carlo simulation experiments, we evaluate the two procedures in terms of statistical significance testing and confidence interval (CI) length. Empirically, we find that the AR procedure typically offers higher power and yields shorter CIs than the tF method. Nonetheless, as noted by Lee et al. (2022), tF has a theoretical advantage in terms of expected CI length. Our findings suggest that the two procedures may be viewed as complementary tools in empirical applications involving potentially weak instruments. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.18001 |
| By: | Lara Ibarra, Gabriel; Salmeron Gomez, Daylan Alberto; Engilbertsdottir, Solrun; Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina; Delamonica, Enrique; Yablonski, Jennifer |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the first estimates of extreme child poverty and child poverty using the World Bank’s recently revised international poverty lines. Using the international poverty line of $3.00 per day and the higher $8.30 per day poverty line (both expressed in 2021 purchasing power parity), the paper provides new results of the global and regional trends over 2014–24. The estimates show that 19.2 percent of children, approximately 412 million children, were living on less than $3.00 (2021 PPP) per day as of 2024, a reduction from 507 million children in 2014. This long-term decrease was slower than that for the general population. At the higher line of $8.30, the child poverty rate in 2024 was 65.9 percent, representing around 1.4 billion children, a drop from the 73.1 percent registered in 2014. At the regional level, the East Asia and Pacific and South Asia regions witnessed significant reductions in child poverty and extreme child poverty between 2014 and 2024, and the Europe and Central Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean regions showed reductions mostly in child poverty. In the same period, there was an increase in extreme child poverty in the Middle East and North Africa region. Sub-Saharan Africa experienced a “lost decade” of child poverty reduction between 2014 and 2024, increasing its concentration of global poverty. In 2024, Sub-Saharan Africa hosted more than three-quarters of children in extreme poor households (more than 311 million children), although its share of the global child population was around 23 percent. Country-level results show evidence of regional heterogeneity in progress against extreme child poverty. |
| Date: | 2025–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11203 |
| By: | C\'esar Barilla; Palaash Bhargava |
| Abstract: | How does the climatic experience of previous generations affect today's attention to environmental questions? Using self-reported beliefs and environmental themes in folklore, we show empirically that the realized intensity of deviations from typical climate conditions in ancestral generations influences how much descendants care about the environment. The effect exhibits a U-shape where more stable and more unstable ancestral climates lead to higher attention today, with a dip for intermediate realizations. We propose a theoretical framework where the value of costly attention to environmental conditions depends on the perceived stability of the environment, prior beliefs about which are shaped through cultural transmission by the experience of ethnic ancestors. The U-shape is rationalized by a double purpose of learning about the environment: optimal utilization of typical conditions and protection against extreme events. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.09598 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | 2025 Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2025–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/259 |
| By: | Yi Chen; Fabiano Dal-Ri; Thomas Jungbauer; Daniela Scur |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a model of employee poaching with asymmetric employer learning. Firms poach managers not only due to their track record but also for their personnel-specific information about workers. In equilibrium, more productive firms poach managers, whose compensation increases in the quality of their information about workers. While poaching reassigns more able workers to more productive firms, efficiency does not obtain due to information frictions. Drawing on the universe of contracts in Brazil's formal labor market, we test implications of our model and show they are consistent with manager and worker movements and their compensation histories. |
| Keywords: | poaching, asymmetric learning, managerial compensation, Brazil |
| Date: | 2025–08–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2118 |
| By: | Eduardo Azevedo; Ilan Wolff |
| Abstract: | The first-order approach (FOA) is the main tool for the moral hazard principal-agent problem. Although many existing results rely on the FOA, its validity has been established only under relatively restrictive assumptions. We demonstrate in examples that the FOA frequently fails when the agent's reservation utility is low (such as in principal-optimal contracts). However, the FOA broadly holds when the agent's reservation utility is at least moderately high (such as in competitive settings where agents receive high rents). Our main theorem formalizes this point. The theorem shows that the FOA is valid in a standard limited liability model when the agent's reservation utility is sufficiently high. The theorem also establishes existence and uniqueness of the optimal contract. We use the theorem to derive tractable optimal contracts across several settings. Under log utility, option contracts are optimal for numerous common output distributions (including Gaussian, exponential, binomial, Gamma, and Laplace). |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.18873 |
| By: | Hamid Noghanibehambari; Jason Fletcher |
| Abstract: | An old and debated line of research examines the income-mortality relationship and finds mixed evidence. In this paper, we re-evaluate previous studies using a new dataset and implementing a difference-in-difference model based on a Notch in Social Security retirement benefits to overcome selection and endogeneity issues. We employ Social Security Administration death records and find a positive income-longevity relationship. Moreover, we find more pronounced effects among low-educated individuals and people from low socioeconomic status families. Analyses using census data suggest that part of the reductions in retirement income are offset by wage income due to post-retirement labor force participation. Past age 80, the net adverse effects of the policy on both income and longevity become more pronounced. |
| JEL: | H40 H50 I1 I18 J1 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34199 |
| By: | Francesco Slataper; Luis Menéndez; Daniel Montolio; Hannes Mueller |
| Abstract: | This article exploits data from a political conflict between language groups to show how political events can rapidly redefine how these groups interact on social media. Leveraging on a unique dataset of 26 million retweets by 120 000 Catalan- and Spanish- speaking Twitter users, we estimate individual exposure to tweets with a network-based model. We then compare two shocks in the same region and year: the Barcelona terror attack and the Catalan independence referendum of 2017. The referendum, and related police violence, triggered a sharp, symmetric jump in retweeting across language groups. The terror attack, by contrast, did not lead to a similar realignment. |
| Keywords: | echo-chambers, ethno-linguistic conflict, polarization, political conflict, retweet behavior, social media, social networks |
| JEL: | D74 C55 C45 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1505 |
| By: | Aregbeshola, B.S.;; Salmasi, L.;; Shomali, K.W.A.; |
| Abstract: | People living in poverty generally do not have proper access to food and nutrition, with negative consequences for their children’s health and possible long-term negative effects in terms of human capital accumulation, health, and labor market achievements. In this paper, we examine the relationship between poverty and children’s nutritional status using the 2008, 2013, and 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys. We adopt an approach based on instrumental variables to control for endogeneity. Our study finds that poverty reduced weight-for-height, weight-for-age, and height-for-age Z-scores by 21.32, 30.33, and 27.67 percentage points, respectively. We also find that poverty increases the likelihood of a child being wasted, underweight, and stunted by 5.99, 5.49, and 6.99 percentage points. We show that the mechanisms underlying the relationship between poverty and children’s nutritional status are health care service utilization, maternal health care service use, household nutrition, child-specific nutrition intake, maternal nutrition, and illness episodes. |
| Keywords: | poverty; wasting; underweight; stunting; Nigeria; |
| JEL: | I10 I12 I31 I32 C18 C26 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:25/08 |
| By: | Bijan Aghdasi; Abhijit Tagade |
| Abstract: | Do markets price knowledge spillovers? We show that patent grants influence the stock returns of firms that are connected through technological knowledge dependencies. Using directed patent citations among publicly listed companies in the United States, we construct a granular measure of each firm's exposure to new patents granted to its technologically upstream firms. Patents granted to these upstream companies significantly boost its abnormal stock returns during the week of the grant. We find that these financial spillovers are predominantly localized within a firm's immediate technological connections. Additionally, we provide a novel empirical decomposition of financial spillovers generated from patent grants, by distinguishing those spillovers emerging from sources of technological knowledge, from those emerging from product market rivals (negative effect) and suppliers (positive effect). Our findings are robust to alternative specifications and placebo tests, and they suggest that technological knowledge spillovers create important market-priced ties between firms that are not fully captured by traditional product market relationships. |
| Keywords: | innovation, networks, spillovers, patents, stock returns, supply chains |
| Date: | 2025–08–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2117 |
| By: | William P. Luan; Roxana Leal; John S. Zhou; Jonathan S. Skinner |
| Abstract: | There is increasing evidence on regional variations in U.S. Medicare utilization based on older patients who move. Yet evidence is limited for younger ages in the U.S., and movers may differ systematically from those who don’t move. In this paper, we harness the mandatory migration of military personnel and dependents (age 5 to 64) to estimate supply and demand factors in a system of care in which military physicians are salaried and copayments and deductibles are negligible. In our sample of 3 million enrollees, we find that place or supply effects explain as much as 80 percent of the overall regional variation for both the entire sample and for active-duty personnel. These regional place effects are correlated across age groups, with correlations as high as 0.84 between middle-aged and older military enrollees. These regional supply-side variations cannot be explained by differences in health, financial incentives, or quality of care, but appear consistent with location-specific differences in physician beliefs. |
| JEL: | H56 I1 I11 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34204 |
| By: | Robert Mann |
| Abstract: | Rate fluctuations in Treasury collateralized repos can affect asset classes in the repo market and broader secondary market trading activity. |
| Date: | 2025–08–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ofr:ofrblg:25-10 |
| By: | Asena Caner; Belgi Turan; Berna Tari Kasnakoğlu; Yenal Can Yiğit; Donald S. Kenkel; Alan D. Mathios |
| Abstract: | This study investigates consumer stated preferences for manufactured cigarettes, roll-your-own tobacco, and vapes in Türkiye, with a focus on how product attributes shape choices of adult consumers. A discrete choice experiment embedded in an online survey examines the role of prices of these products, flavor availability, and most importantly the legal status of vapes. Results indicate strong price sensitivity, both to own prices and to the prices of substitutes. In addition, legal status emerges as a critical factor that shapes stated preferences: consumers exhibit a marked aversion to products that are banned or sold illegally. However, scenario analyses suggest that vapes would capture a substantial market share even under strict prohibition. The hypothetical scenario of a complete ban would likely have a modest effect on the cessation of nicotine products while shifting choices toward traditional combustible tobacco products. These findings highlight the limits of prohibition and underscore the importance of regulatory design. In particular, the treatment of legal status, together with pricing and taxation policies, plays a decisive role in shaping consumer behavior and public health outcomes. |
| JEL: | I12 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34201 |
| By: | Koetter, Michael; Ludolph, Melina; Schub, Hendrik; Wöbbeking, Fabian |
| Abstract: | We exploit an information shock related to the German Supply Chain Due Diligence Act and use detailed customs data to analyze how smaller, non-listed firms respond when expecting accountability for externalities beyond their organizational boundaries. Product-level regressions reveal a substantial reduction in imports from high ESG-risk production sectors. Adjustments occur mainly at the extensive margin, indicating that firms cut ties with high-risk suppliers. The product-level results translate into meaningful changes in overall international procurement for firms with Big Four auditors. Our findings suggest potential limits to mandates requiring firms to integrate broad sustainability considerations into operational decisions. |
| Keywords: | due diligence, firm boundaries, governance, responsible sourcing, supply chain |
| JEL: | F14 F18 G38 M48 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:325497 |
| By: | Caleiro, António |
| Abstract: | The level of well-being of a society, via the individuals that comprise it, obviously depends on their state of health. Thus, some well-being indicators/indices include health indicators/indices in their calculation. In fact, these well-being and health indexes must be complemented with others, of obvious relevance to the matter. This being the (main) objective of this work, the data corresponding to Portugal are analyzed: i) in the area of well-being, the indicators of happiness, satisfaction with life and, ii) in the area of health, the indicators of global burden of diseases, healthy life expectancy and self-perceived health status. This allows us to (better) understand the relationship between health and well-being in Portugal over the last few years. |
| Keywords: | Happiness; Health; Life satisfaction; Well-being. |
| JEL: | I14 I18 I31 |
| Date: | 2025–05–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126003 |
| By: | Heng-fu Zou |
| Abstract: | Why do equity markets in some countries consistently outperform while others suffer from chronic underperformance, volatility, and investor distrust? Why has the canonical equity premium puzzle-first posed by Mehra and Prescott (1985)-remained unresolved despite decades of re finement in consumption-based, production-based, and behavioral asset pricing models? This paper offers a foundational answer: institutions are the missing capital. We argue that differences in institutional quality - such as the strength of property rights, legal enforcement, political stability, democratic accountability, and regulatory claritysystematically shape both the level and volatility of asset returns across countries and time. |
| Date: | 2025–08–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:778 |
| By: | Benjamin W. Cowan; Todd R. Jones |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how people adjust their time use when they experience an increase in time spent alone, which is a growing share of adults’ lives. We utilize the dramatic rise in remote work following the onset of the pandemic, which is associated with a large decline in time spent in the physical presence of non-household members during the workday, to observe the extent to which individuals substitute toward more in-person interactions in non-work settings. We first document that on days that individuals work from home, they spend 3.5 additional hours in activities spent entirely alone and over 5 fewer hours in activities that include any non-household members. We then use a difference-in-difference strategy to ask what happens to time allocations when workers are induced toward remote work by analyzing changes over time in how workers in teleworkable occupations—who experienced the lion’s share of the post-COVID increase in remote work—spend their time relative to workers in non-teleworkable occupations. Averaging over all days of the week, we see a relative increase in time spent in activities spent entirely alone by 32 minutes and a decrease in activities that include any non-household members by 38 minutes for workers in teleworkable jobs. Normalizing by the increase in average daily remote work time (46 minutes), these estimates are of a similar magnitude to what we observe in our descriptive analysis. When individuals are induced to work from home, they exhibit almost no substitution toward spending more time with others who are not in their household to make up for the loss of time with others at work. |
| Keywords: | work from home, social isolation, time use |
| JEL: | J22 J24 I31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12117 |