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on Investment |
| By: | Clemens, Jeffrey (University of California, San Diego); Strain, Michael R. (American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | In a study of recent minimum wage changes (Clemens and Strain, forthcoming), we demonstrate how analyses of longer-run impacts of policy interventions can be pre-specified as extensions to very short-run analyses. This paper uses this novel methodology to study the effects of minimum wage increases on hours worked. Analyzing CPS and ACS data with the empirical specifications from our partially pre-committed analysis plan, we estimate that relatively large minimum wage increases reduced usual hours worked per week among individuals with low levels of experience and education by just under one hour per week during the decade prior to the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. Our estimates of the effects of relatively small minimum wage increases vary across data sets and specifications but are, on average, both economically and statistically indistinguishable from zero. We estimate that the elasticity of hours worked with respect to the minimum wage is substantially more negative for large minimum wage increases than for small increases. We estimate that the elasticity of hours worked with respect to the minimum wage is substantially more negative for large minimum wage increases than for small increases. |
| Keywords: | minimum wages, hours worked, pre-commitment |
| JEL: | J08 J23 J38 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17913 |
| By: | Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana Maria Eugenia; Brown, Melissa; Lopez, Elena Mora |
| Abstract: | Following recent major global shocks that resulted in significant spikes in international food and fertilizer prices, this study analyses the degree of price and volatility transmission from international to selected domestic food and fertilizer markets across seven countries in Central America. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach using monthly data over the period 2000–2022. We find varying results by country and commodities and an overall low to moderate degree of price transmission in levels, but a stronger degree of volatility transmission. We similarly observe some changes in the degree of co-movement between international and domestic price variations over time—depending on the market and commodity under consideration—including after the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as well as after the 2007-2008 food price crisis. Back-of-the-envelope calculations of the effect of an increase in international prices of different food and fertilizers mimicking the peak inflation observed in 2022 reveal small yet non-negligible effects on consumer and producer welfare in Central American countries, which however do not match the magnitude of the food security crisis observed in the region. |
| Keywords: | shock; food prices; fertilizers; markets; price volatility; inflation; food security; welfare; Central America |
| Date: | 2024–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:162957 |
| By: | Ochsner, Christian; Zuber, Christopher |
| Abstract: | Germany is undergoing a major shift in fiscal policy. In response to recent crises and long-term structural challenges, the federal government has introduced a debt-financed spending package that marks a significant departure from past fiscal orthodoxy. This paper investigates the macroeconomic implications of Germany's new fiscal consensus, focusing on how the composition of spending-investment versus consumption-affects inflation, growth, and debt sustainability. Using structural vector autoregressions, we estimate fiscal multipliers across key expenditure types and apply them in a scenario analysis. We focus on three scenarios in which policy makers focus either on consumption, constrained consumption or investment. Our results show that an investment-oriented strategy, particularly those targeting infrastructure and R&D, yields stronger and more sustained GDP growth with more favorable long-term debt outcomes than consumption-oriented approaches. These findings highlight the importance of fiscal quality over quantity. They suggest that strategic allocation of fiscal resources is essential for achieving long-term economic resilience and fiscal sustainability, offering important lessons for Germany and the broader EU as fiscal rules evolve. |
| Keywords: | fiscal package, debt, output, Germany |
| JEL: | E22 E60 E62 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:319647 |
| By: | Thorstensen, Vera Helena |
| Abstract: | O presente artigo introduz a geoeconomia como um novo referencial analítico para compreender a ordem internacional contemporânea, marcada por múltiplas crises e pela fragmentação do sistema multilateral de comércio. O estudo propõe uma abordagem multidisciplinar que articula Economia Internacional, Direito Internacional e Relações Internacionais, destacando a instrumentalização de políticas comerciais, financeiras e tecnológicas por Estados e empresas em função de objetivos geopolíticos. Enfatiza-se a disputa entre grandes potências, especialmente EUA e China, e a necessidade de identificar os impactos desse cenário sobre países como o Brasil. A geoeconomia é apresentada como ferramenta essencial para interpretar os desafios contemporâneos e orientar políticas públicas e estratégias empresariais em um mundo cada vez mais orientado por considerações de segurança econômica. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:eesptd:575 |
| By: | Krämer, Christine; Köder, Lea; Röder, Norbert; Rechenberg, Jörg; Walter, Anne-Barbara; Ehlers, Knut |
| Abstract: | Im Rahmen des Förderrechts der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik der Europäischen Union (GAP) sind Landwirt*innen, die Zahlungen erhalten, dazu verpflichtet u. a. die Standards für den guten landwirtschaftlichen und ökologischen Zustand von Flächen (GLÖZ) einzuhalten. Beantragen die Landwirt*innen keine Zahlungen, müssen die GLÖZ-Standards nicht eingehalten werden, sondern nur das entsprechende Ordnungsrecht. Vor dem Hintergrund der diskutierten Abschaffung bzw. Abschmelzung der Direktzahlungen stellt sich die Frage, inwiefern Regelungen des nationalen Ordnungsrechtes gegenwärtig ein ähnliches Schutzniveau für die Umwelt absichern wie die GLÖZ-Standards. Für den abiotischen Ressourcenschutz wird dieser Frage in der vorliegenden Studie nachgegangen. Ferner wird der notwendige Anpassungsbedarf im Ordnungsrecht identifiziert, wenn ein vergleichbares Schutzniveau erhalten werden soll. Die Studie basiert auf einem sehr detaillierten Vergleich der rechtlichen Umweltschutzanforderungen der GLÖZ-Standards und des geltenden Ordnungsrechtes (Lübke et al. 2025). Dieser Vergleich umfasst die einschlägigen rechtlichen Grundlagen, Rechtsprechung und juristische Kommentierung. Betrachtet werden die GLÖZ-Standards 1 (Erhaltung von Dauergrünland), 2 (Mindestschutz von Feuchtgebieten und Mooren), 4 (Schaffung von Pufferstreifen entlang von Wasserläufen) und 5 (Vorgaben zur Bodenbearbeitung zur Begrenzung von Erosion). Für diese liegen ordnungsrechtliche Regelungen auf Bundes- und Länderebene vor. Im Ergebnis zeigt der Vergleich der untersuchten GLÖZ-Standards und des Ordnungsrechtes in Deutschland ein sehr differenziertes Bild bei den unterschiedlichen Regelungen. Besteht der gesellschaftliche Wunsch, das Schutzniveau dieser GLÖZ-Standards weiterhin beizubehalten, wenn die Direktzahlungen abgebaut werden sollten, so ist das Ordnungsrecht anzupassen. Hierfür ist es u. a. generell sinnvoll, die Begriffsdefinitionen im Förder- und Ordnungsrecht zu vereinheitlichen und die Kongruenz zwischen Ordnungs- und Förderrecht zu verbessern. Unabhängig davon ist sicherzustellen, dass beim "Auslaufen" der Direktzahlungen ein hinreichender Vollzug des Ordnungsrecht unabhängig vom Förderrecht sichergestellt ist. |
| Abstract: | As part of the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), farmers who receive payments are obliged to comply with the standards for good agricultural and environmental condition of land (GAEC), among others. If farmers do not apply for payments, they no longer have to comply with GAEC standards, but only with the relevant regulatory law. Against the background of the abolition or reduction of direct payments, the question arises as to what extent the provisions of national regulatory law currently ensure a similar level of protection for the environment as the GAEC standards. The question arises as to what extent the provisions of national regulatory law currently ensure a similar level of protection for the environment as the GAEC standards. This study this question with regard to abiotic resource protection. The study is based on a very detailed comparison of the environmental protection arising from the GAEC standards and the applicable regulatory law (Lübke et al. 2025). This comparison includes the relevant legal foundations, case law and legal commentary. GAEC standards 1 (Maintenance of permanent Grassland), 2 (Protection of wetland and peatland), 4 (Establishment of buffer strips along water courses) and 5 (Tillage management, reducing the risk of soil degradation and erosion) are analysed, for which regulatory law exists at federal and state level. As a result, the comparison of the GAEC standards and the regulatory law in Germany shows a very differentiated picture of the various regulations. If society wishes to maintain the level of environmental protection ensured by these GAEC standards if direct payments are to be reduced, the regulatory law must be adapted. To this end, it generally makes sense to harmonize the definitions of terms in funding and regulatory law and to improve the congruence between regulatory and funding law. Irrespective of this, it must be ensured that when direct payments are 'phased out', adequate enforcement of regulatory law is guaranteed independently of funding law. |
| Keywords: | Agrarpolitik, Ordnungsrecht, Landwirtschaft und Umwelt, Agricultural Policy, Regulation and Business Law, Agriculture and Environment |
| JEL: | Q18 K2 Q15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:jhtiwp:319636 |
| By: | Lukas Bauer; Ekaterina Kazak |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a Conditional Method Confidence Set (CMCS) which allows to select the best subset of forecasting methods with equal predictive ability conditional on a specific economic regime. The test resembles the Model Confidence Set by Hansen et al. (2011) and is adapted for conditional forecast evaluation. We show the asymptotic validity of the proposed test and illustrate its properties in a simulation study. The proposed testing procedure is particularly suitable for stress-testing of financial risk models required by the regulators. We showcase the empirical relevance of the CMCS using the stress-testing scenario of Expected Shortfall. The empirical evidence suggests that the proposed CMCS procedure can be used as a robust tool for forecast evaluation of market risk models for different economic regimes. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.21278 |
| By: | Grunau, Philipp (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Kampkötter, Patrick (Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen); Ruf, Kevin (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "Performance management is designed to measure employee performance and increase motivation through measures such as employee dialogues, target agreements, performance evaluations, and performance-based compensation or bonuses. Data from the Linked Personnel Panel (LPP) indicate that structured employee dialogues are the most commonly used method, while the implementation of target agreements, performance evaluations, and especially performance-based compensation has declined from 2012 to 2023, although large companies have recently seen a resurgence in the use of performance pay. Longitudinal analyses reveal that employee dialogues correlate with increased job satisfaction, engagement, and commitment to the employer, as well as a positive relationship exists between performance-based compensation systems and job satisfaction, but this is only true when collective goals and shared success are prioritized." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; IAB-Datensatz Linked Personnel Panel |
| Date: | 2025–06–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabkbe:202511 |
| By: | Sophie Szymkowiak (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jordane Creusier (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Franck Biétry (NIMEC - Normandie Innovation Marché Entreprise Consommation - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - IRIHS - Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université) |
| Abstract: | L'homophilie des profils de bien-être au travail dans le contexte d'équipes de travail |
| Date: | 2025–03–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05093361 |
| By: | Eva Caly Simbou (FST - Université de La Réunion - Faculté des Sciences et Technologies - UR - Université de La Réunion, Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, UMR PVBMT - Peuplements végétaux et bioagresseurs en milieu tropical - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UR - Université de La Réunion - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Stéphane Ramin-Mangata (UMR PVBMT - Peuplements végétaux et bioagresseurs en milieu tropical - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UR - Université de La Réunion - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Stéphanie Javegny (Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Philippe Laurent (UMR PVBMT - Peuplements végétaux et bioagresseurs en milieu tropical - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UR - Université de La Réunion - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Stéphane Poussier (UMR PVBMT - Peuplements végétaux et bioagresseurs en milieu tropical - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UR - Université de La Réunion - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Yann Pecrix (Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement) |
| Abstract: | Extraction et caractérisation des bactériocines produites par le complexe d'espèces Ralstonia solanacearum |
| Date: | 2025–03–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05093351 |
| By: | Jeanne Gaspar Lopes; Amene Majidipur; Pascale Soyeux-Porte; Emmanuelle Com (Irset - Institut de recherche en santé, environnement et travail - UA - Université d'Angers - UR - Université de Rennes - EHESP - École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP] - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - Biosit : Biologie - Santé - Innovation Technologique - Structure Fédérative de Recherche en Biologie et Santé de Rennes); Francis Vacherot; Damien Destouches; Virginie Firlej |
| Abstract: | Utilisation des vésicules extracellulaires comme biomarqueurs pronostiques de la réponse au traitement dans le cancer de la prostate |
| Date: | 2025–03–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05093396 |
| By: | Fabio Gatti (University of Bern, Switzerland & Baffi Center, Bocconi University, Italy); Joel Huesler (University of Bern, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | The correspondence of historical personalities serves as a rich source of psychological, social, and economic information. Letters were indeed used as means of communication within the family circles but also a primary method for exchanging information with colleagues, subordinates, and employers. A quantitative analysis of such material enables scholars to reconstruct both the internal psychology and the relational networks of historical figures, ultimately providing deeper insights into the socio-economic systems in which they were embedded. In this study, we analyze the outgoing correspondence of Michelangelo Buonarroti, a prominent Renaissance artist, using a collection of 523 letters as the basis for a structured text analysis. Our methodological approach compares three distinct Natural Language Processing Methods: an Augmented Dictionary Approach, which relies on static lexicon analysis and Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) for topic modeling, a Supervised Machine Learning Approach that utilizes BERT-generated letter embeddings combined with a Random Forest classifier trained by the authors, and an Unsupervised Machine Learning Method. The comparison of these three methods, benchmarked to biographic knowledge, allows us to construct a robust understanding of Michelangelo’s emotional association to monetary, thematic, and social factors. Furthermore, it highlights how the Supervised Machine Learning method, by incorporating the authors’ domain knowledge and understanding of documents and background, can provide, in the context of Renaissance multi-themed letters, a more nuanced interpretation of contextual meanings, enabling the detection of subtle (positive or negative) sentimental variations due to a variety of factors that other methods can overlook. |
| Keywords: | Text Analysis, Natural Language Processing, Art History, Economic History |
| JEL: | N33 C55 Z11 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0279 |
| By: | Naritomi, Joana; Nyamdavaa, Tsogsag; Campbell, Stephanie |
| Abstract: | Over the past decade, governments worldwide have introduced incentive programs - often in the form of lottery prizes - to encourage consumers to help combat tax evasion. While similar programs date back to the 1950s, the rapid expansion of Value Added Tax (VAT) systems in developing countries, combined with the Information Technology revolution, has reshaped the tax enforcement policy toolbox, leading to a recent surge in enforcement policies through consumer incentives. This paper reviews the rationale behind these policies, documents variations in their design, and examines the conditions under which they can enhance compliance and raise revenue. |
| Keywords: | tax compliance; VAT; tax enforcement; consumer rewards; lotteries |
| JEL: | H25 H26 E26 |
| Date: | 2025–05–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127223 |
| By: | Charles Yuji Horioka |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we discuss bequests and other intergenerational transfers and what impact they have on the consumption, saving, and labor supply behavior of households. We show that bequests and other intergenerational transfers are prevalent in most countries, that they are sometimes motivated by altruism and sometimes by selfishness, that they affect the consumption and saving behavior of households to some extent, especially that of elderly households, that they affect the labor supply behavior of households, especially that of bequest recipients, and that they have important policy implications. |
| JEL: | D11 D12 D14 D15 D31 D64 E21 H31 J22 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33927 |
| By: | Jos\'e Ignacio Rivero-Wildemauwe |
| Abstract: | Two agents trade an item in a simultaneous offer setting, where the exchange takes place if and only if the buyer's bid price weakly exceeds the seller's ask price. Each agent is randomly assigned the buyer or seller role. Both agents are characterized by a certain degree of Kantian morality, whereby they pick their bidding strategy behind a Veil of Ignorance, taking into account how the outcome would be affected if their trading partner adopted their strategy. I consider two variants with asymmetric information, respectively allowing buyers to have private information about their valuation or sellers to be privately informed about the item's quality. I show that when all trades are socially desirable, even the slightest degree of morality guarantees that the outcome is fully efficient. In turn, when quality is uncertain and some exchanges are socially undesirable, full efficiency is only achieved with sufficiently high moral standards. Moral concerns also ensure equal ex-ante treatment of the two agents in equilibrium. Finally, I show that if agents are altruistic rather than moral, inefficiencies persist even with a substantial degree of altruism. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.20551 |
| By: | Qalavand, Mostafa |
| Abstract: | Objective: This article analyzes the crisis-generating interaction between macro financial-governance fragility and micro legal-procedural voids within Iran's health and social security system, examining its role in systemic erosion. Method: Using qualitative analysis and critical conceptual synthesis, pathologies at both macro and micro levels and the negative feedback dynamics between them (financial instability, governance weakness, legal deficits, trust erosion) were investigated. Findings: The crisis exhibits a dual architecture: The macro level grapples with severe financial and governance pressures limiting long-term capacity; the micro level suffers from legal gaps (in the therapeutic relationship, informed consent, documentation, accountability) undermining patient rights and trust. These levels interact in a vicious cycle, reinforcing each other; macro constraints weaken micro standards, while negative micro experiences jeopardize macro sustainability. Results: Piecemeal reforms are ineffective. Overcoming the crisis requires an integrated systemic paradigm that links fundamental macro financial and governance reforms with the effective guaranteeing of rights and responsibilities at the micro level of service delivery to achieve sustainable resilience. |
| Date: | 2025–06–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8ha7c_v1 |
| By: | Andrew C. Barr; Benjamin L. Castleman |
| Abstract: | A college degree offers a pathway to economic mobility for low-income students. Using a multi-site randomized controlled trial combined with administrative and survey data, we demonstrate that intensive advising during high school and college significantly increases bachelor’s degree attainment among lower-income students. We leverage unique data on pre-advising college preferences and causal forest methods to show that these gains are primarily driven by improvements in initial enrollment quality. Our results suggest that strategies targeting college choice may be a more effective and efficient means of increasing degree attainment than those focused solely on affordability. |
| JEL: | H52 I24 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33921 |