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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2023‒05‒29
23 papers chosen by |
| By: | Alan de Bromhead; Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke |
| Abstract: | This paper asks whether history should change the way in which economists and economic historians think about populism. We use Müller’s definition, according to which populism is ‘an exclusionary form of identity politics, which is why it poses a threat to democracy’. We make three historical arguments. First, late 19th century US Populists were not populist. Second, there is no necessary relationship between populism and anti-globalization sentiment. Third, economists have sometimes been on the wrong side of important policy debates involving opponents rightly or wrongly described as populist. History encourages us to avoid an overly simplistic view of populism and its correlates. |
| Date: | 2023–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_205&r=his |
| By: | Horii, Seiji |
| Abstract: | Economic history studies often assume that the guild system has a negative impact on economic development and technological innovation. Some argue that the spillover introduction of liberal institutions from the French Revolution into Germany had a lasting effect on the latter country’s economic development. However, Saxony is a good counterexample to their argument. This paper shows that in both the short and the long run, geographical distribution of cotton production remained unaffected and emerged as a powerful center for the textile industry. In terms of production volume, the indirect impact of the French Revolutionary War and the direct impact of the Industrial Revolution were enormous. In the short run, institutional aspects such as guild regulations did not have a significant impact on the Saxon textile industry. However, in the long run, it is likely that the regulations restricted the industry’s development. Despite guild regulations, industrial promotion policy by government can stimulate “quality improving spirits.” Saxony's trade policy is not a story that can be concluded by the dichotomy of the introduction or non-introduction of freedom of trade. Therefore, dummy variables such as 0 or 1 for the introduction or non-introduction of freedom of trade trivialize the discussion. |
| Keywords: | guild, cotton industry, French Revolution, Industrial Revolution, entrepreneurship |
| JEL: | N00 N63 N73 N93 |
| Date: | 2023–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:117204&r=his |
| By: | Sachin Sharma (CRSU - Department of Economics, Chaudhary Ranbir Singh University); Vijay Kumar (CRSU - Department of Economics, Chaudhary Ranbir Singh University); Babloo Jakhar (Department of Economics, Central University of Rajasthan) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the evolution of "Economy at Technological Singularity" (EaTS) and its implications on the concept of natural liberty and welfare in an economic system. The study begins by discussing Keynes' prophetic ideas of an economic utopia and then delves into the role of technological advancement, particularly Artificial Intelligence, in the EaTS system. The study contrasts the ideas of Karl Marx and Adam Smith in defining natural liberty and the individual incentive mechanism. Giddens' structuration theory highlights the central role of "authoritative resources" in determining the dominion of mankind over "allocative resources". Further, Maslow's hierarchy of needs theory is employed to understand the nature of true natural liberty and the idea of transcendence. The paper also explores the notion of utopia and the "End of History" and concludes with the idea that the holy grail of economics is a mechanism design problem, constrained by technology that dynamically alters the economic world order. Thus, economists must rethink outside the conventional spectrum of economic thought and design new ways to structure incentives and distribution mechanisms for future human civilization. |
| Keywords: | economic convergence, economic bliss, technological singularity, artificial intelligence, end of history, natural liberty, transcendence |
| Date: | 2023–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04078104&r=his |
| By: | Joel Mokyr; Guido Tabellini |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the historical and social origins of the bifurcation in the political institutions of China and Western Europe. An important factor, recognized in the literature, is that China centralized state institutions very early on, while Europe remained politically fragmented for much longer. These initial differences, however, were amplified by the different social organizations (clans in China, corporate structures in Europe) that spread in these two societies at the turn of the first millennium AD. State institutions interacted with these organizations, and were shaped and influenced by this interaction. The paper discusses the many ways in which corporations contributed to the emergence of representative institutions and gave prominence to the rule of law in the early stages of state formation in Europe, and how specific features of lineage organizations contributed to the consolidation of the Imperial regime in China. JEL Codes: E42, L14, O10 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:igi:igierp:697&r=his |
| By: | Tetusji Okazaki (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | Building merchant ships was one of Japan’s top priorities during the Pacific War because marine shipping capacity was a decisive factor in the outcome of the war. The Planned Shipbuilding scheme carried out by the Technical Department of the Navy was a scheme to achieve a drastic increase in merchant shipbuilding. The Technical Department of the Navy designed the Wartime Standard Vessels and assigned one or two types of such vessels to each private shipyard, and managed the progress of each ship using the Bar Chart system. Under this scheme, merchant shipbuilding did indeed soar, and the productivity of shipbuilding substantially increased. In this article, I showed that Nagasaki Shipyard of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Co., which specialized in building Wartime Standard tankers along with naval ships, achieved a sharp increase in labor productivity from FY 1942, even under conditions of a declining capital–labor ratio and declining labor quality. At the same time, the shipbuilding period was reduced to less than half what it had previously been. This increase in productivity and the reduction of the building period reflected various ingenuities introduced at the shop-floor level in customizing the design of the Wartime Standard Vessels, improving operations, and introducing two basic technological innovations, block building and electric welding. |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2023cf1213&r=his |
| By: | Damien Bazin (Université Côte d'Azur; GREDEG CNRS); Thierry Pouch (Université de Reims Champagne Ardenne, REGARDS) |
| Abstract: | La figure d'Henri Denis est indissociable de l'enseignement universitaire d'Histoire de la pensée économique en France durant les années 1960-1990 et de l'implantation du marxisme. A ce titre, il a pu être considéré comme un économiste sulfureux, notamment de la part de ses collègues les plus libéraux. Henri Denis n'a toutefois été qu'un marxiste tardif. Durant les années 1940, il est proche du courant corporatiste, qui fut l'un des axes du régime de Vichy. Cet article entend reconstituer le parcours sulfureux de cet économiste français. |
| Keywords: | Crise, économie, guerre, histoire de la pensée économique, politique française |
| JEL: | B24 B41 B50 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2022-10&r=his |
| By: | Michael Dotsey; Wenli Li; Fang Yang |
| Abstract: | We build a unified framework to quantitatively examine the demographic transition and industrial policies in contributing to China’s economic growth between 1976 and 2015. We find that the demographic transition and industrial policy changes by themselves account for a large fraction of the rise in household and corporate savings relative to total output and the rise in the country’s per capita output growth. Importantly, their interactions also lead to a sizable fraction of the increases in savings since the late 1980s and reduce growth after 2010. A novel and important factor that drives these dynamics is endogenous human capital accumulation, which depresses household savings between 1985 and 2010 but leads to substantial gains in per capita output growth after 2005. |
| Keywords: | Aging; Credit policy; Household saving; Output growth; China |
| JEL: | E21 J11 J13 L52 |
| Date: | 2022–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:94396&r=his |
| By: | Xu, Chenzi (Stanford U); Yang, He (Harvard U) |
| Abstract: | Privately issued money often bears devaluation risk that create monetary transaction frictions. We evaluate the real effects of supplying a new type of safe money in the historical context of the US in 1863. We instrument for the change in monetary frictions locally using regulatory capital requirements and measure the degree safe money access with a market access approach derived from general equilibrium trade theory. Lowering monetary transaction costs increased traded goods production and spurred structural transformation with more manufacturing output, employment, and urban population. The growth in manufacturing was driven by employment and inputs rather than capital investment. |
| JEL: | E42 E44 E51 F14 G21 N11 N21 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:4060&r=his |
| By: | Federico S. Mandelman |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic produced a massive decline in U.S. consumption in 2020 and swift fiscal and monetary responses. After growing at a rather steady 5 percent rate for decades, the money supply (M2) increased 25 percent over the past year alongside unprecedented fiscal support, raising some inflationary concerns. Concurrent with the reopening of the economy as vaccines roll out, this article derives some lessons from the U.S. experience during and after WWII. The debt-to-GDP ratio increased from 40 percent to 110 percent because of the war effort. Most of it was financed by Fed debt purchases, through a de facto yield curve control that held down short- and long-term interest rates. The money supply doubled in size, but inflation was muted during the conflict as private consumption demand was severely restrained. Private consumption was suppressed, as factories were fully devoted to the rearmament effort, food was rationed, and construction was practically prohibited. Households’ saving boomed as a result. After the war, swift pent-up consumption demand culminated in a short-lived spike in inflation from 2 percent to 20 percent in 1946–47, which quickly returned to 2 percent in 1949. Contractionary monetary and fiscal policies, along well-anchored low inflation expectations inherited from the Great Depression, appeared to have contributed to rapid disinflation. I also discuss the experiences of Japan and Europe in recent decades. |
| Keywords: | Money aggregates; inflation; World War II; pent-up demand; COVID-19 |
| JEL: | E19 I19 |
| Date: | 2021–05–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:a00001:95908&r=his |
| By: | Maximilian Grimm; Òscar Jordà; Moritz Schularick; Alan M. Taylor |
| Abstract: | Do periods of persistently loose monetary policy increase financial fragility and the likelihood of a financial crisis? This is a central question for policymakers, yet the literature does not provide systematic empirical evidence about this link at the aggregate level. In this paper we fill this gap by analyzing long run historical data. We find that when the stance of monetary policy is accommodative over an extended period, the likelihood of financial turmoil down the road increases considerably. We investigate the causal pathways that lead to this result and argue that credit creation and asset price overheating are important intermediating channels. |
| Keywords: | financial crises; crisis prediction; monetary policy; natural rate |
| JEL: | E43 E44 E52 E58 G01 G21 N10 |
| Date: | 2023–02–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:95733&r=his |
| By: | Gielen, Anne C. (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Webbink, Dinand (Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | A ban on migration from Suriname, a former Dutch colony, to the Netherlands induced a mass migration and changed the selection of migrants. We exploit this historical episode to study the relationship between the self-selection of migrants and their long-term economic integration over three generations. 'Beat-the-ban' migrants, those arriving just before the ban, are negatively selected compared to economic migrants arriving earlier. This difference in selection is reflected in the outcomes of the first generation. However, the inequality in outcomes between differently selected migrants is not persistent. The offspring of negatively selected migrants has a faster catch-up to natives which can be explained by inequities in the country of origin. |
| Keywords: | mass migration, economic integration, intergenerational mobility, migrant selection |
| JEL: | J24 J6 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16065&r=his |
| By: | Lee, Seungho (Jeonbuk National University) |
| Abstract: | Populist forces have been resilient in Latin America and continue to cause instability and uncertainty across the region. Populist figures in the region first rose to prominence during the period of import substitution industrialization in the 1930s, capitalizing on the growing demands for mass politics and better social benefits from the rapidly expanding urban working class.Populism, which had been rampant in Latin America for more than 30 years since then, seemed to fade into obscurity with military regimes which have dominated regional politics in the 1960s and 1970s. However, after a series of democratic transitions, Latin American democracies witnessed yet another wave of populism. A notable number of candidates with a populist discourse have achieved victories in presidential elections in the 1980s and 1990s.With the wave of democratization and the accumulation of public dissatisfaction due to a series of economic crises, some so-called neopopulists took power in a number of Latin American countries. They attracted voters by combining neoliberal economic policies with the typical “us-versus-them” discourse, demonstrating that any economic ideology can be linked to populist ideas.The new millennium witnessed another tide of populist presidents across the region. While a rapid transition to neoliberal policies led to various socioeconomic problems, traditional parties and politicians could not respond effectively to the emerging problems. This time around, left-wing populist figures dominated the region’s political landscapes, combining populist ideas with so-called 21st-century socialism.While the era of radical left-wing populists came to an end, new breeds of populists appeared one after another and were elected to office in the 2010s. Not many expect that populist executives will cease to exist across the region in the near future. Social and economic inequality is worsening in the aftermath of COVID-19, and the public distrust of established party politics and existing democratic institutions is growing more than ever. All in all, there is fertile ground for populist forces to spread even more, who claim that they are the only ones who can eliminate the "incompetent and corrupt" establishment and truly represent the "virtuous" people.(the rest ormitted) |
| Keywords: | in Latin America; The Impact of Populist Executive |
| Date: | 2023–04–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:2023_013&r=his |
| By: | Yuya Aikawa (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University); Tomoko Hashino (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University); Keijiro Otsuka (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University) |
| Abstract: | This study explores the changing roles of agglomeration economies in cluster development based on the historical experience of sake brewing districts in postwar Japan. Nada, the most advanced brewing district, had grown through the horizontal division of labor and development of skilled labor market when production was labor-intensive in the 1950s. The adoption of capital-intensive mechanized brewing, induced by wage growth in the 1960s and 1970s, replaced skilled labor. In recent periods, Nada’s breweries attempted quality improvement and establishing a regional brand by collectively internalizing the external benefits of information spillovers, which are beyond the scope of the Marshallian arguments. |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koe:wpaper:2308&r=his |
| By: | Pim de Zwart; Markus Lampe; Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke |
| Date: | 2023–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_206&r=his |
| By: | Neves, Leonardo Paz (International Intelligence Unit from the Getulio Vargas) |
| Abstract: | Populist forces have been resilient in Latin America and continue to cause instability and uncertainty across the region. Populist figures in the region first rose to prominence during the period of import substitution industrialization in the 1930s, capitalizing on the growing demands for mass politics and better social benefits from the rapidly expanding urban working class. Populism, which had been rampant in Latin America for more than 30 years since then, seemed to fade into obscurity with military regimes which have dominated regional politics in the 1960s and 1970s. However, after a series of democratic transitions, Latin American democracies witnessed yet another wave of populism. A notable number of candidates with a populist discourse have achieved victories in presidential elections in the 1980s and 1990s. With the wave of democratization and the accumulation of public dissatisfaction due to a series of economic crises, some so-called neopopulists took power in a number of Latin American countries. They attracted voters by combining neoliberal economic policies with the typical “us-versus-them” discourse, demonstrating that any economic ideology can be linked to populist ideas. The new millennium witnessed another tide of populist presidents across the region. While a rapid transition to neoliberal policies led to various socioeconomic problems, traditional parties and politicians could not respond effectively to the emerging problems. This time around, left-wing populist figures dominated the region’s political landscapes, combining populist ideas with so-called 21st-century socialism. While the era of radical left-wing populists came to an end, new breeds of populists appeared one after another and were elected to office in the 2010s. Not many expect that populist executives will cease to exist across the region in the near future. Social and economic inequality is worsening in the aftermath of COVID-19, and the public distrust of established party politics and existing democratic institutions is growing more than ever. All in all, there is fertile ground for populist forces to spread even more, who claim that they are the only ones who can eliminate the "incompetent and corrupt" establishment and truly represent the "virtuous" people. Against this backdrop, there is a growing need to improve our understanding of the characteristics of populist governments that have repeatedly emerged in the region. Among many channels through which populist rule influences Latin American countries, Lee et al.(the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | Developing Countries; Making a Case; Social Spring |
| Date: | 2023–04–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:2023_005&r=his |
| By: | Cesaratto, Sergio (University of Siena) |
| Abstract: | Relying on anthropological and archaeological research based on the notion of social surplus, and on the lessons of Marx, Polanyi, Sraffa and Garegnani, the paper argues that the classical surplus approach is naturally associated with institutional and historical analysis. The concept of social surplus is a skeleton which is given muscles by institutional analysis while the latter would be enervated if not anchored to a base of ultimate material interests. Institutions should be looked at in relation to the extraction and distribution of the social surplus and the resulting inequality and social conflict. The paper offers a novel Post Keynesian view of institutions in an interdisciplinary perspective. |
| Keywords: | Surplus; Economic History; Institutions; Marx; Sraffa; Polanyi |
| JEL: | A12 B51 B52 |
| Date: | 2023–04–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:sraffa:0061&r=his |
| By: | Juskowiak, Piotr |
| Abstract: | In this article, I ask how Henri Lefebvre’s oeuvre can contribute to the foundations for a metromarxist theory of urban commoning. To provide an answer to this question I discuss three main areas in which his thinking about the common emerges – his anthropology, philosophy of the urban, and politics of autogestion. This allows me to emphasize the multidimensionality of the Lefebvre-minded commoning, which manifests itself not only at the level of local activism but also touches the dimensions of the production of subjectivity and the constitution of the urban. Read in this way, Lefebvre’s theory of urban commoning helps us to move beyond some of the limitations of the existing discussion of urban commons, as well as to make room for a more fruitful dialogue between urban scholars and autonomist Marxists. It also equips us with an alternative conceptual framework that potentially enhances post-Lefebvrian projects of direct urban democracy. |
| Date: | 2023–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5gwbk&r=his |
| By: | Seele, Stefanie |
| Abstract: | In diesem Bericht werden unterschiedliche Arbeitsmarktindikatoren und die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung von Deutschland und Frankreich von 1970 bis 2021 verglichen. Dafür werden verschiedene Zeitreihen der Europäischen Kommission und der OECD für die Nachbarländer genutzt. Deutschland und Frankreich hatten seit 1970 bis in die Mitte der 2000er Jahre stark regulierte Arbeitsmärkte, welche sich beide durch eine persistent hohe Erwerbslosigkeit auszeichneten. Mit wirtschaftlichen Abschwüngen stieg in beiden Ländern die Erwerbslosigkeit und in den darauffolgenden Aufschwüngen konnte diese nicht (vollständig) abgebaut werden. Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Deutschland und Frankreich war über den gesamten Zeitraum 1970 bis 2021 ähnlich. Auch die soziale Sicherung war bis 2005 in beiden Ländern auf einem ähnlich hohen Niveau. Dennoch verzeichnete der deutsche Arbeitsmarkt ab der Mitte der Nullerjahre eine sinkende Erwerbslosigkeit. Zuletzt deutete sich in Frankreich ebenfalls eine leichte Verbesserung der Arbeitsmarktindikatoren an. Ob 2015 ein dauerhaftes Sinken oder eine weitere Seitwärtsbewegung der französischen Erwerbslosigkeit einleitete, wird sich aber erst in den nächsten Jahren zeigen. |
| JEL: | E24 J08 J21 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:172023&r=his |
| By: | John Levesque (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Cédric Dalmasso (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Sophie Hooge (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The topic of Strategic Human Resource Management (SHRM)'s impact on a firm's innovativeness (or its contribution to innovation, as it is often phrased) has been an ongoing subject of academic debate for the past 2 decades, for both the HRM and the innovation management communities. Indeed, if the purpose of SHRM is to allow "the choice, alignment, and integration of an organization's HRM system so that its human capital resources most effectively contribute to strategic business objectives." (Kaufman, 2015, p.404), then it becomes quickly relevant to understand in what ways the HRM systems contribute to a firm's innovative activities. This type of questioning has produced several works on topics such as 1) how specific HRM strategies, practices or tools directly or indirectly affect a firm's capability to innovate, through its workforce, whether it be employees, managers, or professionals from other support functions; 2) whether the HRM function, characterized by its actors, themselves innovate, to provide the firm with new strategies, practices or tools; 3) how HRM professionals help the firm to respond to external innovations that disrupt its organization and threaten its core activity. It is not coincidental that the same period has been characterized by a profound shift in the context in which firms, particularly large industrial ones, have been operating. Today, the disruptive effects of exogenous breakthrough innovation are no longer an isolated or ephemeral phenomenon: digital transformation, for instance, has become a reality for most industries, creating observable impacts across all sectors of activity, as well as the functions that drive them. This context of intensive innovation, which imposes an acceleration of the pace and intensity of innovation (Christensen, Raynor & Anthony, 2003; Hatchuel et al., 2010; Midler, 2002; Phelps, 2013), implies being able to establish an ambidextrous approach to the firm's activities and steer continuous exploration activities (March, 1991) to renew "dynamic capabilities" simultaneously (Teece, 2007). This current context impacts the entire organization of firms, thereby generating important repercussions on their employees. As a result, Human Resources Departments today are faced with problems that call into question the sustainability of their operations and, by extension, of the firms they support: the actors of HRM find themselves having to deal with new challenges, such as accompanying and/or preventing the accelerated mutation of strategic skills, managing the loss or appearance of knowledge and expertise, as well as recruiting or implementing training programs in the face of unknown futures, or assessing the value of the work of exploring innovative project teams (Wright, Nyberg & Ployhart, 2018). At the SHRM level, this brings both practitioners and researchers to wonder how to ensure an alignment between the firm's goals and its available human resources if its strategies keep changing in real time and their employees' competences (sometimes even highly specialized ones) are being made less relevant by exogenous innovations. Yet, this new context is far from being the first transformative episode to challenge HRM systems and practices: on the contrary, the HR function has a rich history of evolution and diversification when it comes to its mechanisms. The present paper is built on the theory that HRM actors have long been unrecognized designer collectives, who have regularly mobilized their resources and organized creative processes to introduce new managerial solutions, in the form of innovative processes, structures and tools. To test this theory, a longitudinal qualitative study was performed, using the conceptual framework on design regimes to identify collective design phenomena within the evolution of the HRM function throughout industrial French history. The main source of historical data was obtained from Jean Fombonne's seminal work "Personnel & HRM: the affirmation of the Personnel function in [industrial] firms (France, 1830-1990" . The article starts by presenting a review of the literature on HRM contributions to a firm's innovative activities and highlight the enduring absence of a framework to describe the "design activity" expected from SHRM actors. Subsequently, the research question will be presented, and the following longitudinal study will rely on the conceptual framework of design regimes to analyze the historical evolution of the HRM function in French industrial firms. This approach will aim to confirm the hypothesis that HRM actors have historically demonstrated collective design activities that mirror those of industrial engineers, albeit in a less formal way. The core managerial implication of this work is that HRM actors, can build on this history of informal design activity to institutionalize HRM design practices and empower SHRM actors to create better dynamic alignments in intensely innovative situations. |
| Keywords: | HRM - Human resource management, Design Theory, Design Regimes, HRM History |
| Date: | 2022–04–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04067851&r=his |
| By: | Brad Hershbein; Bryan Stuart |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how U.S. local labor markets respond to employment losses after recessions. Following each recession between 1973 and 2009, we find that areas that lose more jobs during the recession experience persistent relative declines in employment and population. Most importantly and contrary to prior work, these local labor markets also experience persistent decreases in the employment-population ratio and per capita earnings. Our results imply that limited population responses result in longer-lasting consequences for local labor markets than previously thought, and that recessions are followed by persistent reallocation of employment across space. |
| Keywords: | local labor markets; recessions; employment rates; migration |
| JEL: | J21 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2022–05–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:94167&r=his |
| By: | Joao Ayres; Gaston Navarro; Juan Pablo Nicolini; Pedro Teles |
| Abstract: | We assess the quantitative relevance of expectations-driven sovereign debt crises, focusing on the Southern European crisis of the early 2010’s and the Argentine default of 2001. The source of multiplicity is the one in Calvo (1988). Key for multiplicity is an output process featuring long periods of either high growth or stagnation that we estimate using data for those countries. We find that expectations-driven debt crises are quantitatively relevant but state dependent, as they only occur during stagnations. Expectations are a major driver explaining default rates and credit spread differences between Spain and Argentina. |
| Keywords: | Self-fulfilling debt crises; Sovereign default; Multiplicity; Stagnations |
| JEL: | E44 F34 |
| Date: | 2023–02–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1370&r=his |
| By: | Gilles Pache (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | Among the monuments that bear the most significant witness to human genius, the great pyramid of Giza occupies a special position. In fact, both in terms of its size and its long building process, which required impressive material and human resources, the pyramid can be considered one of the world's magnificent wonders. However, we should not forget the exceptional logistics involved in bringing the building to completion. The aim of this article is to present the key elements of these logistics, particularly in terms of managing the transport chain over long distances, using both land and waterways. More broadly, logistics is one of the major facets of an organizational prowess whose exploration could be useful to shed light on certain contemporary choices relating to project management. |
| Abstract: | Parmi les monuments qui témoignent le plus significativement du génie humain, la grande pyramide de Gizeh occupe une place à part. En effet, tant par ses dimensions que par son long processus de construction, ayant nécessité d'impressionnantes ressources matérielles et humaines, la pyramide peut être considérée comme l'une des plus magnifiques merveilles de la planète. Il ne faudrait toutefois pas oublier l'exceptionnelle logistique mise en oeuvre pour que la construction puisse arriver à son terme. L'objectif de l'article est de présenter les éléments clé de cette logistique, notamment en matière de pilotage de la chaîne transport sur de longues distances, en s'appuyant à la fois sur les voies terrestre et fluviale. Plus largement, la logistique constitue l'une des facettes majeures d'une prouesse organisationnelle dont l'exploration pourrait être utile afin d'éclairer certains choix contemporains relatifs au management de projet. |
| Keywords: | Transport Antiquity, Flows, Giza great pyramid, Logistics, Project management, Transport, Antiquité, Flux, Grande pyramide de Gizeh, Logistique, Management de projet |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04071022&r=his |
| By: | Chu, Angus C. |
| Abstract: | This study develops a Malthusian growth model with heterogeneous agents and natural selection to explore the evolution of human brain size. We find that if the cognitive advantage of a larger brain dominates its higher metabolic costs, then the average brain size increases over time, which is consistent with the rising trend in human brain size that started over 2 million years ago. Furthermore, an improvement in hunting-gathering productivity gives rise to a larger optimal brain size in human evolution. Finally, as the average brain size increases, the average level of hunting-gathering productivity also rises, generating a positive feedback loop. |
| Keywords: | Natural selection; brain size evolution; Malthusian growth theory |
| JEL: | N1 O13 Q56 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:117130&r=his |