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on All new papers |
| By: | Pinkovskiy, Maxim L. (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X. |
| Abstract: | We present evidence that the recent African growth renaissance has reached Africa’s poor. Using survey data on African income distributions and national accounts GDP, we estimate income distributions, poverty rates, and inequality indices for African countries for the period 1990-2011. Our findings are as follows. First, African poverty is falling rapidly. Second, the African countries for which good inequality data exist are set to reach the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) poverty reduction target on time. The entire continent except for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will reach the MDG in 2014, one year in advance of the deadline, and adding the DRC will delay the MDG until 2018. Third, the growth spurt that began in 1995, if anything, decreased African income inequality instead of increasing it. And fourth, African poverty reduction is remarkably general: It cannot be explained by a large country or even by a single set of countries possessing some beneficial geographical or historical characteristic. All classes of countries, including those with disadvantageous geography and history, experienced reductions in poverty. In particular, poverty fell for both landlocked as well as coastal countries; for mineral-rich as well as mineral-poor countries; for countries with favorable or unfavorable agriculture; for countries regardless of colonial origin; and for countries with below- or above-median slave exports per capita during the African slave trade. |
| Keywords: | poverty; Africa |
| JEL: | I32 O15 |
| Date: | 2014–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:686&r=gro |
| By: | Kazuo MIno (Kyoto University); Yasuhiro Nakamoto (Kyusyu Sangyo University) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the role of consumption externalities in a neoclassical growth model in which households have heterogeneous preferences. We fi?nd that the degree of conformism in consumption held by each household signifi?cantly affects the speed of convergence of the aggregate economy as well as the patterns of wealth distribution in the steady state equilibrium. In particular, a higher degree of consumption conformism accelerates the convergence speed of the economy towards the steady state. We also reveal that in an economy with a high degree of conformism, the pattern of initial distribution of wealth tends not to be sustained in the long run. |
| Keywords: | consumption externalities, heterogeneous agents, wealth distribution |
| JEL: | D31 E13 E21 O40 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:901&r=gro |
| By: | Tsangyao Chang; Hsiao-Ping Chu; Frederick W. Deale; Rangan Gupta |
| Abstract: | This study applies the bootstrap panel causality test proposed by Kónya (2006), which accounts for both dependency and heterogeneity across countries, to test the causal link between population growth and economic growth in 21 countries over the period of 1870-2013. With regards to the direction of population growth-economic growth nexus, we found one-way Granger causality running from population growth to economic growth for Finland, France, Portugal, and Sweden, one-way Granger causality running from economic growth to population growth for Canada, Germany, Japan, Norway and Switzerland, and no causal relationship between population growth and economic growth is found in Belgium, Brazil, Denmark, Netherlands, New Zealand, Spain, Sri Lanka, the UK, the USA and Uruguay. Furthermore, we found feedback between population growth and economic growth for Austria and Italy. Dividing the sample into two subsamples due to a structural break yielded different results in that for the first period of 1871-1951 we found that population growth Granger cause economic growth only for Finland and France, economic growth Granger cause population growth for Denmark, Japan, and Norway and that there is bidirectional causality between population growth and economic growth for both Austria and Italy. For the period of 1952-2013 we found that population growth Granger cause economic growth only for Sri Lanka, economic growth Granger cause population growth for Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, New Zealand, Spain, Switzerland, and Uruguay and that found bidirectional causality between population growth and economic growth only for Japan. Our empirical results have important policy implications for these 21 countries under study as the directions of causality tend to differ across countries and depending on the time period under question. |
| Keywords: | Population Growth; Economic Growth; Dependency and Heterogeneity; Bootstrap Panel Causality Test |
| JEL: | C32 C33 O40 Q56 |
| Date: | 2014–08–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-477&r=gro |
| By: | Katsushi S. Imai (School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester (UK ) and RIEB, Kobe University (Japan)); Raghav Gaiha |
| Abstract: | Drawing upon cross-country panel data for developing countries, the present study sheds new empirical light on dynamic and long-term linkages among growth in agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, inequality and poverty. Agricultural growth is found to be the most important factor in reducing inequality and poverty. The role of agricultural growth in reducing inequality is undermined by ethnic fractionalisation which tends to make inequality more persistent. Our analysis points to a drastic shift away from rural-urban migration and urbanisation as main drivers of growth and elimination of extreme poverty, and towards revival of agriculture in the post-2015 policy discourse. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, Poverty, Growth, Agriculture, Non-agriculture, MDG |
| JEL: | C20 I15 I39 O13 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2014-33&r=gro |
| By: | Boschma, Ron (CIRCLE, Lund University and Department of Economic Geography, Urban and Regional research centre Utrecht, Utrecht University) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes an evolutionary perspective on regional resilience. We conceptualize resilience not just as the ability of a region to accommodate shocks, but we extend it to the long-term ability of regions to develop new growth paths. We propose a comprehensive view on regional resilience, in which history is key to understand how regions develop new growth paths, and in which industrial, network and institutional dimensions of resilience come together. Resilient regions are capable of overcoming a trade-off between adaptation and adaptability, as embodied in their industrial (related and unrelated variety), network (loosely coupled) and institutional (loosely coherent) structures. |
| Keywords: | regional resilience; related variety; networks; institutions; evolutionary economic geography |
| JEL: | B52 D85 L16 O18 R11 |
| Date: | 2014–08–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2014_014&r=gro |
| By: | Rangan Gupta; Lardo Stander |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a monetary endogenous growth overlapping generations model characterized by production lags - specically lagged capital inputs - and an in ation targeting monetary authority, and analyses the growth dynamics that emerge from this framework. The growth process is endogenized by allowing productive government ex- penditure on infrastructure, complementing the lagged private capital input. Following the extant literature, money is introduced by impos- ing a cash reserve requirement on an otherwise competitive banking sector. Given this framework, we show that multiple equilibria emerge along dierent growth paths, with the low-growth (high-growth) equi- librium being unstable (stable) and locally determinate (locally inde- terminate). In addition, we show that convergent or divergent endoge- nous uctuations and even topological chaos could emerge around the high-growth equilibrium in the growth path where the monetary au- thority follows a high in ation targeting regime. Conversely, when the monetary authority follows a low in ation targeting regime, oscillations do not occur around either the low-growth or high-growth equilibrium. |
| Keywords: | endogenous uctuations, in ation targeting, chaos, production lags, indeterminacy. |
| JEL: | C62 E32 O42 |
| Date: | 2014–08–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-461&r=gro |
| By: | Caporale, Guglielmo Maria (Brunel University); Rault, Christophe (University of Orléans); Sova, Robert (CREST & University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne); Sova, Anamaria (E.B.R.C. Bucharest) |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the main features of the banking and financial sector in ten new EU members, and then examines the relationship between financial development and economic growth in these countries by estimating a dynamic panel model over the period 1994-2007. The evidence suggests that the stock and credit markets are still underdeveloped in these economies, and that their contribution to economic growth is limited owing to a lack of financial depth. By contrast, a more efficient banking sector is found to have accelerated growth. |
| Keywords: | financial development, economic growth, transition economies |
| JEL: | E44 E58 F36 P26 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8397&r=gro |
| By: | Rudiger Ahrend; Abel Schumann |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the spatial patterns of regional economic growth in Europe over the 1995 to 2010 period. It finds that regions, which contain large urban agglomerations, have been growing significantly faster than those that do not. Furthermore, proximity to large urban agglomerations has been positively correlated to economic growth. Halving travel time to a large urban agglomeration is associated with a 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points increase in annual per capita growth. More generally, the study also shows that measures of population density are positively correlated to growth. Among the different measures, by far the best predictor of growth between 1995 and 2010 is the maximum population density of a region. |
| Keywords: | regional growth, spatial distribution of economic activity, population distribution and economic growth |
| JEL: | R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2014–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:govaab:2014/7-en&r=gro |
| By: | Anis Omri; Amel Sassi-Tmar |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between FDI inflows and the economic growth for three African economies (Tunisia, Morocco, and Egypt) during 1985–2011. Our analysis, which is based on a simultaneous equations model, reveals that in overall terms a mutually promoting two-way linkage between FDI and economic growth exists in these countries. Using the generalized method of moments (GMM), we find that the two-way linkage between FDI inflows and economic growth has been verified in all three economies , i.e., high level of foreign direct investment inflows had accelerated economic growth and high economic growth in these economies does send positive signals to prospective foreign investors. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth; FDI inflows; GMM-estimator; North African countries. |
| JEL: | G20 H54 C36 |
| Date: | 2014–08–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-558&r=gro |
| By: | Muhammad Shahbaz; Ijaz Ur Rehman; Ahmed Taneem Muzaffar |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Bangladesh by incorporating trade openness in production function using quarter frequency data over the period of 1976-2012. We applied combined Bayer-Hanck cointegration to examine cointegration amongst variables in the presence of structural breaks. The results show that financial development facilitates economic growth but capitalization impedes it. In addition, trade openness stimulates economic growth. Labour is also positively linked with economic growth. The causality analysis reveals the feedback effect between financial development and economic growth. Trade and labour Granger cause economic growth. This paper provides new insights for policy making authorities to use financial development and trade openness as tool to sustain economic growth in long run. This paper also suggests policy makers to utilise capitalization in proper way to sustain economic growth for long run. |
| Keywords: | Financial development, trade openness, Bangladesh |
| JEL: | E1 E44 |
| Date: | 2014–08–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-485&r=gro |
| By: | Anis Omri; Bassem kahouli |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to estimate an econometric model for analyzing the interrelationship between foreign direct investment, domestic capital and economic growth in 13 MENA countries by using a ‘growth model’ framework and simultaneous-equations models estimated by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) during the period 1990–2010. Our empirical results show that there is bi-directional causal relationship between foreign investment and economic growth, between domestic capital and economic growth, and there is uni-directional causal relationship from foreign direct investment to domestic capital for the region as a whole. |
| Keywords: | Foreign investment, Domestic capital, Economic growth, GMM-estimator. |
| JEL: | G20 O40 H54 C36 |
| Date: | 2014–08–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-557&r=gro |
| By: | Muhammad Shahbaz; Rashid Sbia; Helmi Hamdi; Ijaz Ur Rehman |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates relationship between information communication technology (ICT), economic growth and electricity consumption using data of UAE over the period of 1975- 2011.We have tested the unit properties of variables and the Bayer and Hanck combined cointegration approach for long run relationship. The innovative accounting approach is applied to test the robustness of the VECM Granger causality findings. Our empirical results confirm the existence of cointegration between the series. We find that ICT adds in electricity demand but electricity prices lower it. Income growth increases electricity consumption. The non-linear relationship between ICT and electricity consumption is an Inverted U-shaped. The causality results reveal that ICT and electricity prices Granger cause electricity demand. The feedback effect exists between economic growth and electricity consumption. |
| Date: | 2014–08–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-523&r=gro |
| By: | Mohamed El Hedi Arouri; Adel Ben Youssef; Hatem M’Henni; Christophe Rault |
| Abstract: | We make use of a bootstrap panel analysis of causality between energy use and economic growth for a sample of sixteen African countries over the period 1988-2010. Our results show that growth and energy use are strongly linked in Africa. However, African countries are heterogeneous and there is no “one way” recommendation about energy-growth relationship that may work for all countries in Africa. |
| Keywords: | energy use, growth, VAR. |
| JEL: | Q43 Q53 Q56 |
| Date: | 2014–08–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-481&r=gro |