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on Environmental Economics |
| By: | Burtraw, Dallas (Resources for the Future); Evans, David A. |
| Abstract: | The use of cap-and-trade to regulate air pollution promises to achieve environmental goals at lower cost than traditional prescriptive approaches. Cap-and-trade has been applied to various air pollutants including sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and volatile organic compounds in the United States and carbon dioxide in the European Union. This corresponds to what is likely to become the most expensive environmental undertaking in history—the effort to reduce the heating of the planet. However, the efficacy of a cap-and-trade policy for carbon dioxide depends in large part on the design of the program. In addition to the level of the cap, the most important decision facing policymakers will be the initial allocation of emissions allowances. The method used to allocate tradable emissions allowances will have significant influence on the distributional impact and efficiency of the program. |
| Keywords: | cap-and-trade, emission allowances, allocation, auction, grandfathering, climate change, global warming, carbon dioxide |
| JEL: | Q52 Q53 Q54 |
| Date: | 2008–03–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-08-08&r=env |
| By: | Henry Dannenberg; Wilfried Ehrenfeld |
| Abstract: | Modeling the price risk of CO2 certificates is one important aspect of integral corporate risk management related to emissions trading. The paper presents a risk model which may be the basis for evaluating the risk of emission certificate prices. We assume that the certificate price is determined by the expected marginal CO2 abatement costs prevailing at the current trade period and stochastically fluctuates around the respective level as returned from the mean reversion process. Due to uncertainties about future environmental states we suppose that within one trade period, erratic changes in the expected marginal abatement costs may occur leading to shifts in the price level. The aim of the work is to model the erratic changes of the expected reversion level and to estimate the parameters of the mean reversion process. |
| Keywords: | risk, carbon dioxide, emissions trading, EUA, CO2 certificate price, mean reversion process |
| JEL: | D81 G32 L59 Q54 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwh:dispap:5-08&r=env |
| By: | Sourafel Girma; Aoife Hanley; Felix Tintelnot |
| Abstract: | Previous aggregate studies ignore additional environmental improvements caused by intra industry reallocations to high productivity/ low pollution firms. They also fail to consider potential differences in abatement efforts by exporting status. Our estimation based on UK firm level data from 1998 to 2002 shows that exporters are 7.5 percent more likely to denote their innovation as having a ‘high’ or ‘very high’ environmental effect. Our findings also show that exporters are 17.5 percent more likely, all things equal, to report that their firm’s innovation cuts the cost of energy/ materials. Our results agree with our environment trade model which predicts that exporters amortize the fixed cost of environmental abatement over their wider output base |
| Keywords: | Exporting, environment, innovation, heterogeneity |
| JEL: | O31 Q55 Q56 |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kie:kieliw:1423&r=env |
| By: | Heikki Marjosola |
| Abstract: | ABSTRACT : Kyoto Protocol’s Project-Based Mechanisms (Clean Development Mechanism, CDM and Joint Implementation, JI) add flexibility to international climate cooperation and emission trading schemes. The mechanisms reduce the costs of achieving the emission targets directly (cheaper implementation of the emissions reducing projects abroad) and indirectly (emission units earned increase the liquidity of the markets). While the carbon market has been running, some of the problems of the project-based markets have transpired. The CDM projects have centered largely on the biggest and richest developing countries, which also pollute a lot. The smaller developing countries that are more unstable and do not have as developed institutional capacity, are not as intriguing for risk-averting international capital. Though many developing countries are hosting CDM-projects, the centering of the market seems to feed itself. The reforms of the CDM market regulation try to decelerate this tendency (for example programmatic CDM, and new financing mechanisms). Industrialized countries also try to persuade the biggest developing countries to accept an emission target. Thereby they would no longer compete with developing countries, but with industrialized countries likely to host JI-projects. The development of the EU ETS is important from the point of view of project-based markets. In the future, the EU ETS will be governed more as a federate system under harmonized rules. The underlying problem of the international system, however, is the artificial dichotomy of the world into industrialized and developing countries. In the Emissions Trading Schemes, the different developing stages of the countries, regions and industrial operators can be considered much more efficiently. Linking of the already existing schemes provides a necessary step towards a more global and comprehensive Emissions Trading Scheme. |
| Keywords: | project-based mechanisms, CDM, JI, flexibility, emissions trading schemes, linking |
| Date: | 2008–06–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:dpaper:1139&r=env |
| By: | Heinz Schandl; Franzi Poldy; Graham M Turner; Thomas G Measham; Daniel Walker; Nina Eisenmenger (CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Australia) |
| Abstract: | Australia’s export oriented large natural resources sectors of agriculture and mining, the ways in which large scale services such as nutrition, water, housing, transport and mobility, and energy are organized, as well as the consumption patterns of Australia’s wealthy urban households, create a unique pattern of overall resource use in Australia. In an attempt to contribute to a new environmental information system compatible with economic accounts, we represent Australia’s resource use by employing standard biophysical indicators for resource use developed within the OECD context. We are looking at the last three decades of resource use and the economic, social and environmental implications. We also discuss scenarios of future resource use patterns based on a stocks and flows model of the Australian economy. We argue that current extractive economic patterns have contributed to the recent economic boom in Australia but will eventually lead to negative social and environmental outcomes. While there is currently little evidence of political support for changing the economic focus on export-oriented agriculture and mining industries, there is significant potential for improvements in socio-technological systems, and room for more sustainable household consumption. |
| Keywords: | natural resources, resource use patterns and dynamics, physical accounting, resource productivity, social and environmental impacts of resource use, Australia |
| Date: | 2008–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cse:wpaper:2008-08&r=env |
| By: | Reinhardt, Forest L.; Stavins, Robert N.; Vietor, Richard H.K. |
| Abstract: | Business leaders, government officials, and academics are focusing considerable attention on the concept of “corporate social responsibility” (CSR), particularly in the realm of environmental protection. Beyond complete compliance with environmental regulations, do firms have additional moral or social responsibilities to commit resources to environmental protection? How should we think about the notion of firms sacrificing profits in the social interest? May they do so within the scope of their fiduciary responsibilities to their shareholders? Can they do so on a sustainable basis, or will the forces of a competitive marketplace render such efforts and their impacts transient at best? Do firms, in fact, frequently or at least sometimes behave this way, reducing their earnings by voluntarily engaging in environmental stewardship? And finally, should firms carry out such profit-sacrificing activities (i.e., is this an efficient use of social resources)? We address these questions through the lens of economics, including insights from legal analysis and business scholarship. |
| Keywords: | corporate social responsibility, voluntary environmental performance |
| JEL: | M14 L51 Q50 |
| Date: | 2008–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-08-12&r=env |
| By: | Dimitrios Varvarigos |
| Abstract: | I construct a model of a growing economy with pollution. The analysis of the model shows that the interactions between capital accumulation, endogenous longevity and environmental quality determine both the long-run growth rate of the economy and the pattern of convergence (i.e., monotonic or cyclical) towards the balanced growth path. I argue that such interactions can provide a possible explanatory factor behind the, empirically observed, negative correlation of longrun growth with its short-term cycles. Furthermore, the model may capture the observed pattern whereby economic growth and mortality rates appear to be negatively related in the long-run, but positively related in the short-run. |
| Keywords: | Environmental quality; longevity; economic growth; cycles |
| JEL: | O13 O41 Q56 |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lec:leecon:08/19&r=env |
| By: | Paul Baer; Clive L Spash (CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Australia) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the challenges facing orthodox economic approaches to assessing climate control as if it were appraisal of an investment project. Serious flaws are noted in the work of economists with especial attention to the UK Government report by Stern and colleagues. The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and may not be taken to reflect the views CSIRO or the Australian Government. |
| Keywords: | enhanced greenhouse effect, global CBA, Stern Report |
| JEL: | Q51 Q54 Q58 D61 D62 D81 D90 |
| Date: | 2008–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cse:wpaper:2008-07&r=env |
| By: | Richard Yao (University of Waikato); Pamela Kaval (University of Waikato) |
| Abstract: | The value of biodiversity enhancement in New Zealand was estimated from a survey sample of 457 residents. We determined the willingness of respondents to financially support biodiversity programs on private and public lands, as well as determining which factors influence this willingness-to-pay. Our data indicates that an average respondent was willing-to-pay $42 (2007 NZD) annually in their rates (taxes) to support a government initiated private land biodiversity programme and $82 (2007 NZD) annually to support a biodiversity programme on public lands. |
| Keywords: | biodiversity; contingent valuation; native species; household residents; New Zealand |
| JEL: | Q51 Q56 Q57 |
| Date: | 2008–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:08/07&r=env |
| By: | Purvis, Nigel |
| Abstract: | The United States should classify new international agreements to protect the Earth’s climate system as executive agreements rather than as treaties. Unlike treaties, which require the advice and consent of two-thirds of the Senate, executive agreements are entered into either solely by the President based on previously delegated constitutional, treaty, or statutory authorities, or by the President and Congress together pursuant to a new statute. The President and Congress should handle the most significant climate change agreements as congressional–executive agreements, which require approval by a simple majority of both houses of Congress. Handling climate agreements as congressional–executive agreements would speed the development of a genuinely bipartisan U.S. climate change foreign policy, improve coordination between the executive and legislative branches, strengthen the hand of U.S. climate negotiators to bring home good agreements, increase the prospects for U.S. participation in those agreements, protect U.S. competitiveness, and spur international climate action. More specifically, Congress should enact “Climate Protection Authority,” which would define U.S. negotiating objectives in a statute and require the President to submit concluded congressional–executive agreements to Congress for final approval. This approach should apply both to the new global climate change agreement being negotiated in the United Nations by the United States and the rest of the international community and to other future arrangements with a smaller number of major emitting nations. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, global warming, U.S. foreign policy, international affairs, executive agreements, treaties |
| Date: | 2008–04–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-08-09&r=env |
| By: | Colignatus, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Roefie Hueting (1929), recently turned 78 years of age, has been working on the subject of economics and the environment since around 1965. Seminal results are his notion of environmental functions (WWF, 1969), his Ph.D. thesis “New Scarcity and Economic Growth. More welfare through less production ?” (1974), the definition of (environmentally) sustainable national income (eSNI, UNEP/Worldbank 1989), the eSNI methodology (CBS Statistics Netherlands 1992) and his contributions to the 1999 Hueting Congress (presentation and rejoinders, 2001bc). The figure of national income NI gives production while the figure of eSNI gives the production level that maintains the availability for future generations of the vital environmental functions. For many economists, the current focus is on climate change but the ecological challenge is much wider and more fundamental, see also the Convention on Biological Diversity, Bonn 2008. The figure for eSNI still isn’t included in the system of national accounts (SNA) which means that current statistical reporting on national income and economic growth provides incomplete information to policy makers and the general public. With the dictum “What you measure is what you get”, we currently get “economic growth” that works against sustainability. This review provides a reflection on advance and adversity in 40 years of Hueting’s research in a world that only slowly recognizes the global environmental problem. How do governments decide under risk, how do they grow aware of that very risk, what is the role of the national statistical offices in providing information on that risk, especially when that risk concerns survival for large sections of the planet ? The reflection provides insights that themselves are useful for our understanding of the political economy of research on issues that are politically sensitive. |
| Keywords: | Social welfare; national income; sustainable national income; economic growth; sustainable economic growth; sustainability; environment |
| JEL: | Q01 E01 A11 |
| Date: | 2008–06–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:9152&r=env |
| By: | Constadina Passa (Department of Economics, University of Crete, Greece); Anastasios Xepapadeas (Department of Economics, University of Crete, Greece) |
| Abstract: | Farming activity is modeled under an intervention policy regime, combining the environmental requirements of the Council Nitrates Directive (91/676/EEC) and the compensatory provisions of the second pillar of the Common Agricul- tural Policy. The optimizing behavioural rule along with the evolutionary rule is employed in order to model the individual farmer's decision making, regard- ing compliance or not with regulatory provisions. The impact of these di¤erent behavioral rules on the selection of monitoring effort and thus on the compli- ance incentives of a population of farmers is examined. Analysis indicated that if monitoring effort is chosen arbitrarily or optimally based on the accustomed full rationality assumption then the population adopts a monomorphic behav- ior in the long-run, involving either full or noncompliance with the Directive's provisions. A polymorphic behavior involving partial compliance of the pop- ulation also arises if the dynamic model of optimal monitoring is constrained by replicator dynamics which represent the imitation rules. It is evident, thus, that the number and the type of the equilibrium steady-states is affected by the assumption regarding the behavioral rule adopted by regulated agents. Fi- nally, the dynamics of the population of compliant farmers is also assessed under accumulation of monitoring capital indicating identical properties. |
| Keywords: | Nitrates Directive, agri-environmental programs, monitoring effford, monitoring capital, rationality, optimal behavioral rule, replicator dynamics, imitation |
| JEL: | Q20 L51 B52 |
| Date: | 2008–06–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crt:wpaper:0811&r=env |
| By: | Jens R. Clausen |
| Abstract: | Assuming a social welfare function that smoothes expenditure, this paper calculates a sustainability benchmark for the non-mineral balance in Botswana that is based on a notion of a "permanent income" from non-renewable resources. It is derived by constructing a hypothetical annuity from revenues from these resources, which is held constant in terms of GDP. Botswana is an interesting case because current projections suggest that diamond resources could be largely exhausted within a generation. |
| Keywords: | Working Paper , Botswana , Natural resources , Fiscal policy , Revenues , Government accounting , |
| Date: | 2008–05–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/117&r=env |
| By: | Suzi Kerr (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Andrew Sweet; |
| Abstract: | No country has previously attempted to include either agriculture or forestry in an emissions trading system. The New Zealand government is planning to include both. This paper describes how they plan to do it, what some of the critical issues have been and some of the outstanding challenges. If New Zealand can resolve these issues and so can create a strong system, this could create a precedent for many others. Policy development is actively progressing as this paper is written. This paper does not definitively cover the issues but records our thinking at a moment in time and provides a framework for more in-depth analysis. |
| Keywords: | Emissions trading, New Zealand, agriculture, public policy |
| JEL: | Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2008–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtu:wpaper:08_04&r=env |
| By: | Lihong Lu McPhail; Bruce A. Babcock (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD); Midwest Agribusiness Trade Research and Information Center (MATRIC)) |
| Abstract: | High commodity prices have increased interest in the impacts of federal ethanol policies. We present a stochastic, short-run structural model of U.S. corn, ethanol, and gasoline markets to estimate the price and welfare impacts of alternative policies on producers and consumers of corn, ethanol, and gasoline. The three federal policies that we consider are the Renewable Fuels Standard, the blenders tax credit, and the tariff on imported ethanol. Our model examines the impact of these policies on prices during the 2008/09 marketing year. Our results show that in the short run, a change in U.S. ethanol policies would not have a large, immediate impact on corn prices. Eliminating any one of the policies would reduce average corn prices by less than 4%. Removal of all three programs would decrease average corn prices by 14.5%. The reason why the changes are relatively modest is that existing U.S. ethanol plants will only shut down if their variable cost of production is not covered. Changes in ethanol policies would have large distributional impacts. Corn growers, ethanol producers, and fuel consumers have a large incentive to maintain high ethanol consumption. Gasoline producers have a large incentive to reduce ethanol production and imports. Livestock producers have a large short-run incentive to reduce domestic ethanol production. |
| Keywords: | ethanol policy, stochastic equilibrium model, welfare analysis. |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ias:cpaper:08-wp468&r=env |
| By: | Knut Einar Rosendahl and Halvor Briseid Storrøsten (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | Allocation of free emissions allowances may distort firms' incentives or have adverse distributional effects. Nevertheless, Böhringer and Lange (2005) show that in a closed emissions trading scheme with a fixed number of firms, a first-best outcome can be achieved if the base year for allocation is continually updated (i.e. updated grandfathering). In this paper we examine whether updated grandfathering alters the entry and exit conditions for firms compared to pure grandfathering, and how the distributional effects are affected. We find that updated grandfathering functions surprisingly similar to pure grandfathering: First, the incentives to entry and exit are identical under the two regimes. Second, the total value of free quotas to existing firms, based on emissions before the system starts, is identical under pure and updated grandfathering. In both cases, higher prices under updated grandfathering exactly match the shorter time period with free allowances. The only difference occurs when there is some combination of auction and pure or updated grandfathering, in which case the total value of free quotas will always be highest under pure grandfathering. Entry and exit incentives are still the same. |
| Keywords: | Emission trading; Allocation of quotas; Quota prices |
| JEL: | H21 Q28 |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:546&r=env |
| By: | Ana Fernandes |
| Keywords: | Endogenous political economy; conflict; deterrence; natural resource curse; inefficiency; general equilibrium |
| JEL: | H11 O11 P16 |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp0802&r=env |
| By: | BROCK, William; XEPAPADEAS, Anastasios |
| Abstract: | We develop a novel theoretical framework for studying ecosystems in which interacting state variables which are affected by management decisions diffuse in space. We identify (i) mechanisms creating spatial patterns when economic agents maximize profit at each site by ignoring the impact of their actions on other sites and (ii) a diffusion induced externality. Pattern formation mechanisms and externalities create a divergence in the spatiotemporal structures emerging under private or social objectives We develop optimal regulation which internalize the spatiotemporal externalities. Our theory is applied to the management and regulation of a semi-arid system. Supporting numerical simulations are also presented. |
| Keywords: | Economic-Ecological Systems; Pattern Formation; Reaction-Diffusion; Diffusion Instability; Spatial Externalities; Regulation |
| JEL: | C61 Q20 H23 |
| Date: | 2008–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:9105&r=env |
| By: | Vajjhala, Shalini (Resources for the Future); Paul, Anthony; Sweeney, Richard; Palmer, Karen |
| Abstract: | A variety of recent policy measures have been advanced to promote interregional power transmission investment in the United States; among these are the designation of corridors on federal lands in western states and the identification of national interest electric transmission corridors across the country. Although these corridors have been put forward as critical policy interventions to modernize an aging transmission system, their effectiveness could be undermined by parallel policies, such as renewable portfolio standards (RPSs), designed to alter the landscape for new investment in generation capacity. This paper presents the results of a scenario analysis of the relationship between the interregional power grid and renewables policies to evaluate 1) the effects of state and national RPS policies on interregional power flows and 2) the impacts of transmission expansion on the locations and types of new, renewable sources for electricity capacity additions. Using the RFF Haiku Electricity Market Model, we find that the locations of transmission corridors could have a significant impact on the location, type, and marginal cost of generation in the future. Conversely, a national RPS would induce interregional power flows across the country significantly different from those that would prevail in the absence of such a policy. In particular, a national RPS would promote western renewables and shift power flows to the East. Under either a set of state-level RPS policies or a national RPS, the majority of power flowing into California will come from the Pacific Northwest, not from the Southwest, which is where corridors are most abundant. Additionally, a national RPS could motivate more than 10 GW of new biomass capacity in the Southeast, but grid expansion could shift 6 GW of this capacity to the Plains states and western wind. |
| Keywords: | energy corridors, transmission grid, renewable electricity, RPS |
| JEL: | Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2008–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-08-06&r=env |
| By: | Mische John, Anna; Burtraw, Dallas; Evans, David; Banzhaf, H. Spencer; Krupnick, Alan; Siikamäki, Juha |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a review of the science pertaining to all aspects of acidification in the Adirondack Park, updating an earlier review of the science (Cook et al. 2002). The review supports an ongoing social science investigation into the willingness to pay for ecological improvements that would result from reduced acid deposition. This paper builds a bridge between the physical science and social science by providing the background that will allow researchers to accurately summarize the crucial elements of ecological status and improvement in a stated preference survey. |
| Keywords: | acid rain, acidification, stated preference, willingness to pay, benefit estimation |
| JEL: | Q51 Q53 Q57 |
| Date: | 2008–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-08-11&r=env |
| By: | Nuno Torres (PhD Student of The Doctoral Programme in Economics at Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Porto.); Oscar Afonso (CEMPRE and Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto, Portugal) |
| Abstract: | In this study we re-evaluate the impact of natural resources on economic growth. The reassessment is based on a growth model where, using panel-data analysis, natural-resource variables (geographically diffused and concentrated) affect the efficiency gains of labour and capital in production. We find an overall positive effect on growth arising from the increase in capital efficiency associated with concentrated resources, exactly the kind of resources that explain the resource curse in recent cross-section studies. We detect a negative effect of concentrated resources on labour efficiency only when either the resource proxies are unadjusted for re-export distortion (even with a fixed institutional quality, contrary to cross-section studies), or both the fixed country and time effects are not considered after the referred adjustment. Our results also dismiss a negative effect of the adjusted diffuse resources measure on capital efficiency if we assume a constant institutional quality, and fixed country and time effects. |
| Keywords: | Natural resources; Economic growth; Economywide Country Studies; Panel data |
| JEL: | C23 O13 O47 O50 |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:por:fepwps:278&r=env |
| By: | Stephane Luchini (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II - Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille III - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales - CNRS : UMR6579); Verity Watson (Health Economics Research Unit - University of Aberdeen) |
| Abstract: | Many stated preference studies have reported framing effects in responses to valuation questions. This occurs when respondents use irrelevant information contained in a question to help them value the good. We investigate if respondent uncertainty can explain two commonly observed framing effects in contingent valuation studies. Specifically using a double bounded dichotomous choice elicitation format, we investigate anchoring (or starting-point bias) and the shift effect, which may indicate if the method is incentive compatible. Respondent uncertainty is measured using a follow up question that asks respondents their certainty about their valuation. We ?nd evidence that the anchoring effect is stronger for respondents expressing uncertainty about their valuation compared to respondents expressing certainty. The shift effect is significant and negative only for respondents expressing certainty. Our findings suggest that anchoring can be reduced if respondents are certain of their valuation, and that iterative elicitation formats are not incentive compatible. |
| Keywords: | Contingent valuation, heterogeneous framing, self-reported uncertainty |
| Date: | 2008–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00285861_v1&r=env |
| By: | JOAQUÍN VILORIA DE LA HOZ |
| Abstract: | En este documento se estudian las variables ambientales, económicas y sociales de la ciénaga continental más grande de Colombia, Zapatosa. Este ecosistema está repartido entre dos departamentos (Cesar y Magdalena) y cinco municipios (Chimichagua, Tamalameque, El Banco, Chiriguaná y Curumaní), en donde viven 150.000 personas y pastan 170.000 cabezas de ganado. La crítica situación ambiental de la ecorregión de Zapatosa y centro del Cesar se explica por diferentes causas como la pobreza, las explotaciones mineras, el bajo nivel educativo de su población y el aislamiento geográfico. Fenómenos exógenos como el cambio climático afectan el ciclo de las lluvias y las crecientes en la cuenca del Magdalena y esto, a su vez, acentúa los períodos de inundaciones y sequías en las ciénagas del Bajo Magdalena. En la búsqueda del desarrollo sostenible, es necesario que las dos corporaciones autónomas regionales que comparten la administración de la ciénaga de Zapatosa (Corpamag y Corpocesar), al igual que los municipios que están en su jurisdicción, asuman el compromiso ineludible de controlar la sobreexplotación de los recursos naturales en este cuerpo de agua. |
| Date: | 2008–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000102:004721&r=env |
| By: | Thomas Lux |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a methodology for estimating the parameters of dynamic opinion or expectation formation processes with social interactions. We study a simple stochastic framework of a collective process of opinion formation by a group of agents who face a binary decision problem. The aggregate dynamics of the individuals' decisions can be analyzed via the stochastic process governing the ensemble average of choices. Numerical approximations to the transient density for this ensemble average allow the evaluation of the likelihood function on the base of discrete observations of the social dynamics. This approach can be used to estimate the parameters of the opinion formation process from aggregate data on its average realization. Our application to a well-known business climate index provides strong indication of social interaction as an important element in respondents' assessment of the business climate |
| Keywords: | business climate, business cycle forecasts, opinion formation, social interactions |
| JEL: | C42 D84 E37 |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kie:kieliw:1424&r=env |