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on Environmental Economics |
| By: | Eduardo Uribe |
| Abstract: | This document is a case study that focuses on the air pollution problems of Bogotá and Medellín. These are the largest; most populated and industrialized cities of Colombia. The document presents a brief description of the evolution of relevant institutional aspects. It describes the pollution problems of these cities, their sources, their effects on health and the measures to control and to prevent them. Following the framework of the WDR 2003 , this document analyzes how society becomes aware of air pollution problems and the mechanisms that have generated the decision to undertake air pollution control strategies. It also discusses the mechanisms which have been in place to balance legitimate, competing social interests, and the means by which the adopted solutions are executed. Finally, the document presents a series of lessons and recommendations. |
| Keywords: | air pollution |
| JEL: | N5 |
| Date: | 2005–01–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000913&r=env |
| By: | Eduardo Uribe |
| Abstract: | This document presents an analytical description of the processes by which Colombian environmental institutions and regulations evolved between 1971 and 2004. The methodology used was based on the analytical framework of the 2003 World Bank Development Report: “Sustainable Development in a Dynamic World: Transforming Institutions, Growth, and Quality of Life”. For this analysis, the recent history of environmental management in Colombia is divided in four periods. The first period begins in 1971 and ends with the approval of the Constitution of 1991. The second period begins in 1991 and ends in 1993 with the approval of Law 99. The third period extents from 1994 to 2002; during this period the environmental institutions and regulations created by Law 99 of 1993 were developed. The last period begins in year 2002 when new reforms to the institutional environmental framework were proposed and implemented by the government. For each of those four periods the document analyzes the means by which society became aware of environmental problems; the mechanisms that generated social demand for their solution; and the mechanisms to balance legitimate, competing social interests and by which adopted solutions were executed. Finally, the document includes a list of conclusions. |
| Keywords: | environment |
| JEL: | N5 |
| Date: | 2005–01–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000914&r=env |
| By: | Eduardo Uribe |
| Abstract: | Colombia is one the world’s richest countries in biological resources. To protect them, Colombian Law created the National Parks in 1959. Further regulations for their creation and administration were approved during the seventies. However, they did not include mechanisms to balance conservation interests with other economic and social development priorities. Presently, the ample majority of the National Parks overlap with the traditional territories of indigenous, black and campesino communities. This affects their economies and imposes restrictions on the traditional uses of natural resources. In 2002 the national government approved the Policy for the Social Participation in Conservation which seeks to promote the implementation of conservation strategies with the participation of local stakeholders. To illustrate the effects of this Policy, and following the analytical framework of the WDR 2003 , the processes of declaration of two national parks are compared: Corales del Rosario National Park, and Alto Fagua Indiwasi National Park. Finally, the document presents a series of lessons and recommendations. |
| Keywords: | conservation |
| JEL: | N5 |
| Date: | 2005–01–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000915&r=env |
| By: | Eduardo Uribe |
| Abstract: | The Bogotá Savanna is a fertile Andean plateau located in the central region of Colombia. It is an important agricultural region, and the most industrialized and densely populated area of the country. In this region, human consumption demands most of the available water; the development of the agricultural, energy, and industry sectors is highly dependent on water availability. Water scarcity is prevalent in some rural areas of the region and becomes more severe during the months of January, February, July and August. Therefore, decisions related to water allocation are of the large economic importance. Since the sixties, a series of regulations and institutional arrangements were devised to allocate water among the different users in this region. However, the efficiency, transparency and equity of those institutional mechanisms and regulations leave much to be desired. This is case study illustrates this situation by applying the analytical framework of the World Development Report (WDR) 2003 |
| Keywords: | water |
| JEL: | N5 |
| Date: | 2005–01–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000916&r=env |
| By: | Eduardo Uribe |
| Abstract: | The Sierra Nevada of Santa Marta of Colombia is a region of immense cultural, historical, ecological and biological value. However, external interventions have caused serious cultural, social and environmental damage. This case study illustrates how the development of a constitutional, legal and policy framework, which recognized the cultural and territorial rights of the indigenous communities of the Sierra Nevada, facilitated the building of coordination mechanisms for the design of conservation strategies. It also shows how there still are important challenges to secure the effectiveness and equity of these strategies. Following the analytical framework of the World Development Report (WDR) 2003 , this case study analyzes how society and institutions became aware of the values and problems of the Sierra Nevada of Santa Marta, the mechanisms that have generated decisions to undertake action, the mechanisms which have been in place to balance legitimate and competing social interests, and the means by which the adopted solutions have been executed. Finally, this document presents some lessons and recommendations. |
| Keywords: | conservation |
| JEL: | N5 |
| Date: | 2005–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000917&r=env |
| By: | Eduardo Uribe |
| Abstract: | Since de early seventies a number of technical sanitation alternatives were proposed to clean the wastewaters of the Bogotá River. However, mainly for economic reasons, they were not implemented. It was only until the early nineties that the administration of the city of Bogotá decided to adopt a strategy for the sanitation of the River, and a concession contract for the construction and operation of a series of treatment plants was signed in 1994. However, the decision was not the result of judicious analysis and it ignored the results of previous technical studies and evaluations. The treatment plants began operations at the end of 2000. In 2003 the city’s administration decided, at a high cost for the city, to terminate that concession contract. This decision was justified based on the limited benefits and high costs of the sanitation project. This case study analyses how this project which was financially and technically indefensible was eventually be implemented. For this purpose the analytical framework of the WDR 2003 is used. |
| Keywords: | water pollution |
| JEL: | N5 |
| Date: | 2005–01–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000138:000918&r=env |
| By: | FABIO ALBERTO ARIAS ARBELÁEZ |
| Abstract: | El riesgo de extinción de una especie se estima por la evaluación del estado de deterioro de la población. Una especie silvestre y no extinta puede ser evaluada y clasificada como: En Peligro Crítico, En Peligro, Vulnerable, Cuasiamenazada, de Preocupación Menor. En Colombia se ha realizado esta clasificación para algunos grupos de fauna y flora. En este trabajo se utiliza la información de la Serie Libros Rojos de Especies Amenazadas de Colombia (Reptiles, Peces dulceacuícolas) para calcular el cambio en la probabilidad del riesgo de extinción ante variaciones de variable económicas que describen algún tipo de presión por explotación directa del recurso o modificación del hábitat. La herramienta cuantitativa para el análisis de la información es un modelo de variable dependiente discreta ordenada. |
| Keywords: | Riesgo de Extinción de las Especies |
| Date: | 2004–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000141:000622&r=env |
| By: | David M. Brasington; Diane Hite |
| Abstract: | We first estimate the relationship between house prices and environmental disamenities using spatial statistics, confirming that nearby point-source pollutants depress house price. We then calculate implicit prices of environmental quality and related characteristics from the house price hedonics to estimate a demand curve for environmental quality, finding a price elasticity of demand of ?0.12. We find evidence of significant spatial effects in both the hedonic and demand estimations. We find that environmental quality and school quality are purchased together (elasticity =-0.80), environmental quality and house size are substitutes (elasticity=0.91), and environmental quality and lot size are not related goods. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsu:lsuwpp:2005-08&r=env |
| By: | Robert Brooks; Edwyna Harris |
| Abstract: | This paper conducts an analysis of the water markets in Victoria covered by Watermove. The analysis in this paper examines the weekly trading activity across trading zones. For the majority of trading zones there is little trading activity that occurs. There are three trading zones in which the markets for temporary water rights are reasonably active and liquid on a weekly basis, and for these zones an analysis is conducted of their demand and supply elasticities and consumer and producer surplus. The results of this analysis suggest a stronger relationship on the supply side between prices, volumes, elasticity and producer surplus. |
| Keywords: | Water, Water markets, Elasticities, Consumer and Producer Surplus |
| JEL: | Q25 |
| Date: | 2005–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msh:ebswps:2005-10&r=env |
| By: | Mengtao Gao (CCER - China Center for Economic Research); Yang Yao (CCER - China Center for Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the age structure of the gender gap in household health care allocation by using survey data coillected on 1428 rural households (8414 persons) in 8 Chinese provinces. The primary concerns are rthe treatment rate and expenditure conditional on reported 2-week illnesses. To avoid the potential bias in self-reported illness, in particular, the bias arising from wome's tendency to report more illnesses than men, conditional probit and OLS analyses are adopted. in addition, to take care the possibility that some illnesses have different impacts on men and women, we suppplement the study by looking at people's responses to two specific illnesses, cold and diarrhoea, that do not have gender implications. We employ several sets of variables measuring a person's work capability, occupation, political affiliation, and education to control his potential market values. Our results show that girls under age 13 do get significantly less medical care than boys of the same age, but prime-age wives get more than the husbands, and old-age wives get less than old-age husbands. While the results for the children agree with other studies, the pattern for prime-age and old-age adults is new and consistent with the considerations proposed above. |
| Keywords: | China, health care allocation, gender, rural |
| JEL: | I31 I38 |
| Date: | 2004–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:develo:295&r=env |
| By: | John Quiggin (Department of Economics, University of Queensland); John Freebairn (University of Melbourne) |
| Abstract: | The relative merits of different property right systems to allocate water among different extractive uses where variability of supply is important are evaluated. Three systems of property rights are considered. In the first, variable supply is dealt with through the use of water rights defined as shares of the total quantity available. In the second, there are two types of water rights, one for water with a high security of supply and the other a low-security right for the residual supply. The third is a system of state-contingent claims. With zero transaction costs, all systems are efficient. In the realistic situation where transaction costs matter, the state-contingent claims system is globally optimal, and the system with high-security and low-security rights is preferable to the system with share allocations. |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty, property rights, Murray-Darling |
| JEL: | D8 Q2 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:murray:m04_2&r=env |
| By: | John Quiggin (Department of Economics, University of Queensland); Poh-Ling Tan (Queensland University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this article is to provide a framework for discussion of the current policy issues surrounding management of the Great Artesian Basin, with reference to the historical development of existing legislation and institutions. Of particular interest is the applicability of lessons learned from the debate over management of the Murray-Darling Basin. |
| Keywords: | property rights, sustainable management |
| JEL: | Q2 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:murray:m04_3&r=env |
| By: | Tyron Venn (Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland) |
| Abstract: | A forestry industry based on the native Darwin stringybark forests of Cape York Peninsula has been identified as a potential generator of employment and income for Wik people. Information appropriate for examining potential Wik timber utilisation strategies is scarce, necessitating primary data collection activities in north Queensland. A mixed-integer, single-period goal program is developed to produce a suite of ‘optimal’ timber utilisation strategies from the perspective of Wik people. Optimal forestry strategies predicted by the goal programming model are financially viable and suggest, in general, that relatively low-technology forestry activities are likely to best satisfy Wik forestry objectives |
| JEL: | L73 |
| Date: | 2004–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:murray:m04_4&r=env |
| By: | Tyron Venn (Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland); Robbie McGavin (NA); William W. Leggate (NA) |
| Abstract: | Portable sawmilling trials with Acacia aneura (mulga) and A. cambagei (gidgee) have been undertaken to estimate the private landholder costs associated with small-scale timber production from woodlands in western Queensland, Australia. A time study of harvesting and milling operations facilitated estimation of landholder labour input requirements. The scarcity and small size of millable logs, coupled with the prevalence of timber defects, make harvesting and portable sawmilling of western Queensland acacias an expensive undertaking for landholders. The cost of producing sawn timber that meets the High Feature (HF) grade of Australian Standard AS2796 is estimated at between A$3,000-m3 and A$3,400/m3 of HF timber. |
| JEL: | L73 |
| Date: | 2004–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:murray:m04_5&r=env |
| By: | Steve Harrison (University of Queensland); John Herbohn (University of Queensland); Nick Emtage (University of Queensland); Tyron Venn (Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland) |
| Abstract: | This paper describes experiences in the development and testing of three distinct financial models to support farm forestry decisions involving non-traditional tree species in northern Australia and in the Philippines. A variety of options were examined with respect to model design, yield prediction, computing platform, forestry performance criteria and other features. Two of the models focus on the forestry enterprise in isolation, while the third evaluates forestry within the context of the overall farm business. It is found that choice of model design depends on the particular type of application intended and availability of financial data for this application. Some complementarities were gained in replicating features when progressing from one model to the next. Model construction and testing were challenging tasks requiring considerable funds and for two of the models proceeding over a number of years. Validation involved the gradual gaining of confidence in a model as it progressed through various versions. For the more complex models, greater effort in development of the user interface was found to be warranted. The models have proved more suitable for use by extension agents than individual landholders. Even with major resource inputs into model development, a number of desirable additional features can be identified. |
| JEL: | L73 |
| Date: | 2004–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:murray:m04_6&r=env |
| By: | Tyron Venn (Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland) |
| Abstract: | The large, unutilised native forest timber resource on traditional Wik land on Cape York Peninsula, Australia, could be managed for timber production to contribute to Wik socio-economic objectives. Wik elders have a set of forestry objectives and envisage that these will be best achieved by a timber industry selling unprocessed logs and woodchips. On the other hand, Balkanu Cape York Development Corporation, an indigenous community development organisation, anticipate that an industry utilising high-technology equipment and producing dried and dressed finished products including strip-flooring will best satisfy Wik forestry objectives. The Wilderness Society envisages small-scale, Ôcommunity developmentÕ activities such as portable sawmilling and niche market furniture manufacture as being appropriate types of forestry activities on Wik land. Goal programming analysis of forest use opportunities indicates that Wik forestry objectives are unlikely to be best satisfied by adopting the timber utilisation opportunities espoused by any one of the stakeholders. |
| JEL: | L73 |
| Date: | 2004–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:murray:m04_7&r=env |
| By: | David Adamson (Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland); Thilak Mallawaarachchi (Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland); John Quiggin (Risk & Sustainable Management Group, School of Economics, University of Queensland) |
| Abstract: | The Murray-Darling Basin comprises over 1 million km2; it lies within four states and one territory; and over 12, 800 GL of irrigation water is used to produce over 40% of the nation's gross value of agricultural production. This production is used by a diverse collection of some-times mutually exclusive commodities (e.g. pasture; stone fruit; grapes; cotton and field crops). The supply of water for irrigation is subject to climatic and policy uncertainty. Variable inflows mean that water property rights do not provide a guaranteed supply. With increasing public scrutiny and environmental issues facing irrigators, greater pressure is being placed on this finite resource. The uncertainty of the water supply, water quality (salinity), combined with where water is utilised, while attempting to maximising return for investment makes for an interesting research field. The utilisation and comparison of a GAMS and Excel based modelling approach has been used to ask: where should we allocate water?; amongst what commodities?; and how does this affect both the quantity of water and the quality of water along the Murray-Darling river system? |
| Keywords: | Water, Uncertainty, Salinity, GAMS v EXCEL & Optimisation |
| JEL: | Q25 |
| Date: | 2005–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:murray:m05_1&r=env |
| By: | Tyron Venn (Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland) |
| Abstract: | Wik people on Cape York Peninsula, Queensland, aspire to economic independence. Commercial processing of native forest timbers is seen by Wik people as a culturally appropriate engine for economic development; however, much uncertainty surrounds their property rights to native forest timber. The granting of native title over some traditional Wik land in 2000 and 2004 was seen as a coup by Wik people, but some economists have argued that the inalienable and communal nature of native title is an obstacle to development in indigenous communities. An assessment of Wik property rights to timber resources reveals that a commercial forestry industry is consistent with their rights. In comparison with social and cultural factors, the inalienable and communal characteristics of native title are second-order development constraints for Wik people. \ |
| Keywords: | native title, native forest management, Aurukun community, Cape York Peninsula. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:murray:m05_2&r=env |
| By: | John Quiggin (Risk & Sustainable Management Group, School of Economics, University of Queensland) |
| Abstract: | The precautionary principle, presented as a guide to environmental policy decisions in the presence of uncertainty, has been the subject of vigorous debate. However, the has generally not been discussed in relation to formal theories of choice under uncertainty developed as generalizations of the expected utility model. In this paper, it is argued that a formal basis for the precautionary principle may be found in an incompleteness hypothesis regarding formal models of choice under uncertainty. The incompleteness hypothesis states that estimates derived from formal models of choice under uncertainty will generally be over-optimistic and that the errors will be greater, the less well-understood is the problem in question. |
| Keywords: | precautionary principle, generalized expected utility theory |
| JEL: | D81 Q2 |
| Date: | 2005–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:murray:m05_3&r=env |
| By: | John Quiggin (Risk & Sustainable Management Group, School of Economics, University of Queensland) |
| Abstract: | Most settled parts of Australia, notably including the Murray-Darling Basin, experience low and highly variable rainfall levels. Both medium-term cycles such as the Southern Oscillation and longer term climate change contribute uncertainty in additional to that arising from seasonal fluctuations. It follows that uncertainty is an inherent feature of water management in Australia. In addition, the policy process itself generates uncertainty. As new knowledge about water systems emerges and new demands, such as increased concerns about environmental flows, arise, policies must adjust. The adjustment process inevitably creates uncertainty for both new and existing water users. It follows that the allocation of risk and uncertainty is a crucial problem in the design of institutions for water management in Australia. |
| JEL: | D81 Q25 |
| Date: | 2005–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:murray:m05_4&r=env |
| By: | Manjira Datta (W. P. Carey School of Business Department of Economics); Leonard Mirman (University of Virginia) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effect of market power in a model with dynamic and biological externalities. When several countries harvest fish in international waters the evolution of fish population is affected by their joint action, thus, generating a biological and a dynamic externality. If there is trade in fish, the market-clearing prices depend on the harvesting and consumption decision made in every country. Therefore, market-clearing prices generate another type of interdependence. The planners' make their policy decision by taking account of various externalities.We find a subgame perfect Cournot-Nash equilibrium and the conditions under which it may be efficient. We also study the role of different externalities in generating inefficiency. |
| JEL: | C73 D51 D90 F12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asu:wpaper:2132842&r=env |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - http://www.centre-cired.fr/ - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et Forêts;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées); Jean-Charles Hourcade (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - http://www.centre-cired.fr/ - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et Forêts;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées) |
| Abstract: | Climate change is representative of a general class of environmental issues where decisions have to be taken under controversies. The policy framework for these kinds of decisions is defined by three important traits: scientific ignorance, mediatization and the need for innovation. Scientific ignorance is an issue here because decisions must be taken before the end of scientific controversies about the predictability of future climate. Mediatization is key because agents can't have a sensible experience of the global climate change, and some interest-holders (future generations, distant countries) cannot participate directly in the decision. Third, the need for innovation is crucial because today's technology offers the only alternative between fossil fuels and nuclear power as a main primary energy source.In the case of climate change, the institutional context is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The making of global environmental policy is framed not upon a hypothetical code of international law (there is no such a thing), but upon a body of doctrine arising from consistent reference to a given set of principles. The key principles are sustainability (satisfying the need of present generations without preventing future generations to satisfy theirs), precaution (ignorance is not an excuse for inaction), the common but differentiated responsibility (developed countries take the lead in action against climate change), and economic efficiency (which lead to prefer flexible instruments over blind regulation).Given the scientific controversies and the fuzziness of guiding principles, no clear-cut demonstration could justify the choice of a theoretically optimum course of action, even in the short term. Historically, climate negotiations can be seen as an oscillation between two regulation modes. On one side is coordinated policies and measures, where countries adopt an uniform international rate of carbon tax. On the other side is emission trading, where a defined emission reduction target is allocated to each country. |
| Keywords: | changement climatique; Protocole de Kyoto |
| Date: | 2004–02–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00001125_v1&r=env |
| By: | D. Finon (LEPII - Laboratoire d'économie de la production et de l'intégration internationale - http://www.upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II); P. Menanteau (LEPII - Laboratoire d'économie de la production et de l'intégration internationale - http://www.upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II) |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with a comparative analysis of the economic and social efficiency of the instruments used to promote renewable energy sources (RES), first from a static standpoint and then using dynamic criteria to assess their ability to stimulate technological progress and cost reduction. First, the instruments are analysed in relation to the classical discussion of environmental policy that opposes price-based instruments versus quantity-based instruments in an uncertain environment (feed-in tariffs as price based system on one hand, quotas + green certificates, competitive bidding as quantity-based instruments on the other hand). Next, the incentives to invest and innovate in the context of each framework are analysed in relation to the sharing of the surplus associated with each of them between producers/constructors and consumers or the public budget. Finally, the paper looks at the overall cost-efficiency of the policies on the basis of each instrument, by referring to factual evidence in European experiences. It concludes that if social preference is attached to climate change prevention and reflected in a high quantitative objective for renewables, sliding scale feed-in tariffs are a good compromise in order to promote technical progress and national RES industry also. The quota/certificate system also presents a number of advantages in terms of static efficiency, but its ability to stimulate innovation still has to be confirmed by experience. |
| Keywords: | énergies renouvelables;progrès technologique;certificat vert |
| Date: | 2004–03–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00001300_v1&r=env |
| By: | Pierre Berthaud (UPMF - UNIVERSITE PIERRE MENDES FRANCE - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II); Denise Cavard (LEPII - Laboratoire d'économie de la prospective et de l'intégration internationale - http://www.upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii - CNRS : FR2664 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II); Patrick Criqui (LEPII - Laboratoire d'économie de la prospective et de l'intégration internationale - http://www.upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii - CNRS : FR2664 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II) |
| Abstract: | Cette contribution traite des modalités de gestion d'un problème d'action collective dans le domaine de la négociation sur le climat, en s'appuyant sur deux des concepts de l'Economie Politique Internationale (EPI), celui de régime international (RI), et celui d'hégémonie et/ou de leadership. Le cours suivi par la négociation internationale entre 1992 (Convention de Rio) et mars 2001 (rejet par les États-Unis du protocole de Kyoto de 1997), conduit à s'interroger sur les conditions d'existence et la viabilité d'un régime international non hégémonique (partie 1). On s'interroge ensuite sur les perspectives de "l'après-Kyoto". L'examen des préférences des trois acteurs les plus actifs dans la négociation (États-Unis, Europe, G77+ Chine) combiné à celui des capacités de leadership qu'ils possèdent permet de différencier trois scénarios d'avenir : i) l'anarchie, ii) un régime international sous hégémonie américaine, iii) un régime international sous leadership européen (partie 2). <br>−−−−−<br> This article deals with the different modalities that exist to manage a problem of collective action in the field of climate negotiation. It uses two concepts of the International Political Economy (IPE) : the concept of International Regime (IR) and the concept of Hegemony and / or Leadership. The course the international negotiation has taken between 1992 (Rio Convention) and march 2001 (the US rejection of the Kyoto Protocol of 1997) leads us, first, to question the conditions of existence as well as the viability of a non-hegemonic International Regime (Part One). Then, we discuss the perspectives for the "post - Kyoto" era. After having examined the preferences of the three most active actors in the negotiation (USA, Europe, G77 + China) combined with the leadership capacities they possess, we identify three scenarios for the future: i) anarchy, ii) an international regime under the American hegemony, iii) an international regime under the European leadership (Part Two). |
| Keywords: | Changement climatique; régime international |
| Date: | 2004–09–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00001362_v2&r=env |
| By: | Odile Blanchard (LEPII-EPE - Laboratoire d'économie de la prospective et de l'intégration internationale - http://www.upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii-epe - CNRS : FRE2664 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II); James F. Perkaus (PERKAUS & ASSOCIATES - Perkaus & Associates - Perkaus & Associates) |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the two major components of the Bush Administration's climate policy, namely an emission intensity target and a technology strategy. The question is whether those components will generate net emission reductions that will contribute to the stabilization of the greenhouse gas concentration at a safe level in the long run. It comes out that the Bush Administration climate policy does not guarantee any meaningful contribution to climate protection. The lenient emission intensity target set by the Administration will most likely allow near term emissions to grow. In the long run, the Bush Administration places a big bet on future climate-friendly technological breakthroughs to cost-effectively compensate for the current and near term net emission increases. But the outcomes of those technological developments are uncertain in terms of emission reduction potential, cost, and timing. The way towards enhanced climate protection will most likely not come from the policies of the current Administration, but rather from the growing concern about the climate issue in Congress and at the state, corporate and civil society levels. These combined forces may raise the playing field at the federal level in the near future. |
| Keywords: | politique environnementale;changement climatique;Etats-Unis |
| Date: | 2004–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00001683_v1&r=env |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - http://www.centre-cired.fr - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et des Forêts;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées); Dumas Patrice (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - http://www.centre-cired.fr - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et des Forêts;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies uncertainty about the non-linearity of climate change impact. The DIAM 2.3 model is used to compute the sensitivity of optimal CO2 emissions paths with respect to damage function parameters. This builds upon results of the EMF-14 uncertainty subgroup study by explicitly allowing for the possibility of threshold effects and hockey stick damage functions. It also extends to the cost-benefits framework previous studies about inertia of energy systems. Results show that the existence of a threshold in the damage function is critical to precautionary action. Optimal path are much less sensitive to uncertainty on the scale of the damages than on the threshold values. |
| Date: | 2004–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00002451_v1&r=env |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - http://www.centre-cired.fr - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et des Forêts;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées); Michael Grubb (EEP - Energy and Environmental Programme - Royal Institute of International Affairs); Jean-Charles Hourcade (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - http://www.centre-cired.fr - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et des Forêts;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées) |
| Abstract: | Following the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change [1], countries will negotiate in Kyoto this December an agreement to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Here we examine optimal CO2 policies, given long-term constraints on atmospheric concentrations. Our analysis highlights the interplay of uncertainty and socioeconomic inertia. We find that the ‘integrated assessment' models so far applied under-represent inertia, and we show that higher adjustment costs make it optimal to spread the effort across generations and increase the costs of deferring abatement. Balancing the costs of early action against the potentially higher costs of a more rapid forced subsequent transition, we show that early attention to the carbon content of new and replacement investments reduces the exposure of both the environmental and the economic systems to the risks of costly and unpleasant surprises. If there is a significant probability of having to stay below a doubling of atmospheric CO2-equivalent, deferring abatement may prove costly. |
| Date: | 2004–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00002452_v1&r=env |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - http://www.centre-cired.fr - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et des Forêts;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées) |
| Abstract: | In the climate change issue, the environmental irreversibility (risk of an acceleration of mitigation policies if the worse happen) has to be balanced with the investment irreversibility (risk of over-cautious policies). To explore this balance, we define an option value for a precautionary climate policy. Using the simplest decision-making model, we expose how option value relates to the expected value of future information. Using quantitative data from an integrated as sessment model, we find that most of the times the environmental irreversibility dominates the investment irreversibility. For all cases explored here, the order of magnitude of the option value was significant, about 50% of the opportunity cost. |
| Keywords: | Option value, Climate change, Irreversibility |
| Date: | 2004–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00002457_v1&r=env |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - http://www.centre-cired.fr - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et des Forêts;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées); Jean-Charles Hourcade (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - http://www.centre-cired.fr - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et des Forêts;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées); Franck Lecocq (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - http://www.centre-cired.fr - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et des Forêts;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the economic rationale behind both the quantitative targets and the flexibility mechanisms adopted in the Kyoto Protocol. It synthesises some theoretical dimensions of the debate about the so-called "when flexibility" of climate policies, explaining the importance of the interplay between uncertainty and technico-economic inertia. Numerical results shows that the aggregate Kyoto abatement target is consistent with a stochastic dynamic optimum in which a 450 ppm concentration ceiling is seriously considered. Turning to the EU-US debate about the interpretation of the "supplemental to" condition in Article 3 of the Kyoto Protocol regarding the articulation between international trading systems and domestic policies and measures, this text illuminates the risk of dynamic inconsistencies due to the heterogeneity of capital stocks in the economy, if price signals do not emerge in due time from GHGs trading systems because of the ``hot air'' in some countries and the discovery of low costs abatement potentials in Annex B countries. Numerical simulations show that a delay of action on sectors with large inertia of capital stocks and of the consumption styles may under such circumstances ultimately undermine the economic viability of climate policies beyond 2012. Some lessons are derived for the future of climate policies and negotiations about the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. |
| Date: | 2004–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00002459_v1&r=env |
| By: | Mehdi Abbas (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - http://www.upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II) |
| Abstract: | Ce travail aborde une des nouvelles thématiques des négociations commerciales multilatérales: la régulation environnementale. Il propose de retracer la façon dont l'OMC est amenée à traiter de l'environnement et les contradictions dans lesquelles elle se trouve du fait de l'incompatibilité entre l'objectif de libéralisation commerciale et celui de protection des ressources environnementales. Le travail met en évidence une seconde contradiction issue de la nature même de l'OMC: organisation fondée sur ses membres. Ces derniers tentent de répondre à une demande de la société civile en intégrant l'environnement dans l'architecture commerciale multilatérale. Mais, l'offre qu'ils présentent, pour des raisons de compétitivité et de concurrence se réduit à une recherche d'articulation de normes exogènes aux Accords de l'OMC. La logique est donc au cloisonnement des deux thématiques (libéralisation commerciales et protection de l'environnement). |
| Keywords: | OMC;négociations commerciales internationales;environnement |
| Date: | 2004–08–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00002712_v1&r=env |
| By: | Julien Allaire (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - http://www.upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II) |
| Abstract: | Cet article se propose d'étudier d'un point de vue historique les dynamiques urbaines de déplacements et leur lien avec la forme urbaine. En s'appuyant sur les travaux de Zahavi et ceux de Newman et Kenworthy, nous proposons ici une analyse de l'évolution des modes de transports utilisés dans les villes du Nord au cours de leur développement et des formes urbaines qui y sont liées. Cette analyse conjointe nous sert à mieux interpréter le lien entre kilométrage parcouru et croissance économique, sans négliger les spécificités nationales ou locales des villes considérées. En décrivant la situation des villes dans les pays en développement, nous nous interrogeons sur les orientations possibles de ces cités, en particulier les villes asiatiques qui connaissent une croissance économique rapide. Leur organisation urbaine aura, a fortiori, une grande importance du point de vue de la consommation d'énergie et de l'impact sur les dégagements de gaz à effet de serre. |
| Keywords: | Mobilité;Forme urbaine;Modes de transport;consommation d'énergie |
| Date: | 2004–10–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00003075_v1&r=env |
| By: | Denise Cavard (LEPII - Laboratoire d'économie de la prospective et de l'intégration internationale - http://www.upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii - CNRS : FR2664 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II); Patrick Criqui (LEPII - Laboratoire d'économie de la prospective et de l'intégration internationale - http://www.upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii - CNRS : FR2664 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II) |
| Abstract: | Cet article traite des différentes modalités qui existent pour gérer un problème d'action collective, comme celui du changement climatique, susceptible d'affecter les conditions de vie et les activités économiques de toutes les régions du monde. |
| Keywords: | changement climatique;négociations internationales;politique environnementale |
| Date: | 2005–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00003793_v1&r=env |
| By: | David Keith (Department of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering, University of Calgary - http://www.eng.ucalgary.ca/Chemical/, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University - http://www.epp.cmu.edu/); Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - http://www.centre-cired.fr - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et des Forêts;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University - http://www.epp.cmu.edu/); Joshua Stolaroff (Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University - http://www.epp.cmu.edu/) |
| Abstract: | Ce texte porte sur la question de la réversibilité à long terme des émissions de CO2. Il donne un exemple de technologies de capture directe à partir de l'air, qui permet de borner le coût marginal de réduction du CO2 dans toute l'économie. Il exploré les aspects thermodynamiques de la capture du dioxyde de carbone à partir de l'air. Le modèle DIAM a été étendu pour prendre en compte ces options et examiner les conséquences sur les politiques climatiques optimales. |
| Keywords: | Capture du carbone, changement climatique, modélisation intégrée, politique climatique |
| Date: | 2005–05–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00003926_v1&r=env |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University - http://www.epp.cmu.edu/, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - http://www.centre-cired.fr - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et des Forêts;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées); David Keith (Department of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering, University of Calgary - http://www.eng.ucalgary.ca/Chemical/, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University - http://www.epp.cmu.edu/) |
| Abstract: | Les combustibles fossiles peuvent être utilisés avec peu d'émissions en capturant le dioxyde de carbone et en le stockant dans des structures géologiques. Cependant, une fraction du carbone stocké pourrait fuir vers l'atmosphère, ce qui limiterait l'utilité de cette technologie. Afin d'explorer les compromis entre actualisation, étanchéité du réservoir, coût de séquestration et pénalité énergétique (l'énergie nécessaire pour capturer, transporter et injecter le carbone en sous-sol), nous développons un modèle analytique marginal simple de la valeur d'un stockage imparfait comparativement à stockage idéal. Si le taux de fuite annuel est de 1 pour cent et le taux d'actualisation de 4 pour cent, par exemple, alors le stockage temporaire) de la tonne de CO2 se compare à l'élimination (permanente) de 8 quintaux de ce même gaz. |
| Keywords: | changement climatique, politique énergétique, stockage du carbone, séquestration du carbone |
| Date: | 2005–05–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00003927_v1&r=env |