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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Abuzayed, A.; Pollitt, M. G.; Liebensteiner, M.; Hochgreb, S. |
| Abstract: | Retrofitting gas-fired power plants to accommodate low-carbon fuel blends offers a promising pathway to achieving deep decarbonization while leveraging the existing infrastructure and maintaining electricity supply reliability. This study presents a comprehensive techno-economic assessment of low-carbon fuel options for decarbonizing combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs), evaluating both fuel switching and blending strategies using green hydrogen, green ammonia, and biomethane. We estimate capital investment requirements for retrofitting existing fleets and building new CCGT capacity in Germany and the UK, featuring a case study case of retrofitting a relatively new CCGT power plant (Keadby2 in the UK). Our findings reveal that retrofitting increases the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) by about 6–13 €/MWh, with storage infrastructure representing a key cost driver. Fuel blending enhances operational flexibility but raises retrofitting costs. Biomethane emerges as the most cost-effective option due to its compatibility with existing infrastructure and negligible retrofitting needs, potentially cutting capital investments by up to €16.5 and €12 billion in Germany and the UK, respectively. However, even under the most favorable conditions, the marginal cost of electricity using low-carbon fuels exceeds 120 €/MWh, leaving natural gas more competitive at current market conditions. Strategic retrofitting decisions must be pursued selectively, considering plant age, proximity to fuel supply, and storage infrastructure. Policy frameworks ensuring simultaneous supply and infrastructure development are critical to realizing the potential of fuel blending and retrofitting strategies. |
| Keywords: | Deep Decarbonization, Low-Carbon Fuels, Fuel-Blending, Combined-Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT) |
| JEL: | Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2557 |
| By: | Pollitt, M. G.; Duma, D.; Covatariu, A.; Nillesen, P. |
| Abstract: | As we contemplate the role of distribution networks in advancing the energy transition, this paper seeks to present a global map of energy distribution system operators (DSOs). We do this to illustrate the variation in power and gas distribution sector utilities across the world. We analyse information on 194 electricity and 75 gas utilities in capital cities in 194 countries. The paper compares information on size, ownership, degree of integration, performance, information availability and innovation. We find a large degree of variation across the world with significant differences between continents and economic groupings. Overall, the paper highlights the significant challenges facing many distribution utilities in promoting the energy transition, given their very different – and often inauspicious - starting points. |
| Keywords: | Distribution System Operators, Gas, Electricity, Energy Transition |
| JEL: | L94 |
| Date: | 2025–06–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2556 |
| By: | Alessandra Bonfiglioli; Rosario Crinò; Mattia Filomena; Gino Gancia |
| Abstract: | We study the environmental impact of artificial intelligence (AI) using a novel dataset that links measures of AI penetration, the location of data centers and power plants, and CO2 emissions across US commuting zones between 2002 and 2022. Our analysis yields four main findings. First, exploiting a shift–share identification strategy, we show that localities more exposed to AI experience relatively faster emissions growth. Second, decomposition results indicate that scale effects dominate, while changes in industrial composition exert at most a weak mitigating effect; at the same time, electricity generation becomes more carbon intensive. Third, AI penetration raises dependence on non-renewable electricity. Fourth, proximity to data centers is a key driver of this effect, as nearby power plants shift toward greater fossil fuel use. These findings suggest that, absent a rapid decarbonization of power generation, the diffusion of AI is likely to exacerbate environmental externalities through the energy demand of data centers. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, data centers, environment, emissions, pollution |
| JEL: | O33 Q55 R11 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12158 |
| By: | Zarah Thiel; Reza Fazeli; Frank Jotzo; Andreas Löschel |
| Abstract: | Hydrogen produced from renewable energy sources or with carbon capture and storage is an important pillar for reducing global emissions. Using structured interviews, we collect and analyze expectations of 47 industry, science, and government experts on hydrogen pathways and policy needs in Australia. A detailed picture emerges of expectations for how hydrogen will be produced, traded, or used domestically, including projections of future production cost and quantities. Experts also shared views on key obstacles and factors that could support hydrogen deployment. While a large majority anticipates a transition to renewable hydrogen by 2050, there are some notable divergences in expectations, including among different stakeholder groups and levels of experience. For instance, carbon capture and storage pathways remain contested. While the experts were largely optimistic that technical and environmental barriers could be overcome, the main policy gaps identified relate to regulatory and market uncertainties. |
| Keywords: | hydrogen, expert survey, renewable energy, policy |
| JEL: | O38 Q42 Q48 H00 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12161 |
| By: | Germeshausen, Robert; Heim, Sven; Wagner, Ulrich J. |
| Abstract: | The rise of societal goals like climate change mitigation and energy security calls for rapid capacity growth in renewable electricity sources, yet citizens' support is put to a test when such technologies emit negative local externalities. We estimate the impact of wind turbine deployment on granular measures of revealed preferences for renewable electricity in product and political markets. We address potentially endogenous siting of turbines with an IV design that exploits quasi-experimental variation in profitability induced by subsidies. We find that wind turbines significantly reduce citizens' support locally, but this effect quickly fades with distance from the site. We assess policy instruments for enhancing citizens' support for renewable energy in light of our results. |
| Keywords: | renewable energy, wind power, public support, elections, externalities |
| JEL: | D12 D72 Q42 Q48 Q50 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:327111 |
| By: | Bingcheng Zhu (Dongbei University of Finance and Economics); Hongyun Huang (Shandong University); Ying Liu (Shandong University); Ning Zhang (Yonsei University) |
| Abstract: | New energy measures have been identified as a crucial strategy for most developing countries to address climate concerns and environmental risks. Despite multitude studies documenting the desirable clean air and low-carbon outcomes brought by new energy consumption, little is known about whether and how it facilitates the cost-effective collaborative emission abatement (CCEA). Therefore, we first propose a new method based on the data envelopment analysis (DEA) framework to measure the CCEA of 283 prefecture-level and above cities in China. Subsequently, we establish the causality exploiting the enforcement of the new energy model city construction program (NEMCC) as an ideal quasi-natural experiment. We find that the policy significantly alleviates the emission abatement cost burden on the real economy caused by the collaborative process of pollution mitigation and carbon reduction. Moreover, we uncover three plausible channels in which the NEMCC nudges the CCEA from the entire production process of “source prevention-process control-end treatment†. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the beneficial effect is more prominent in southern cities, and cities with superior human capital and stringent environmental regulation. Additionally, we demonstrate that digital economy positively facilitates the policy effect with more complete intellectual property protection and active innovation environment within the city. Overall, the study provides fresh evidence supporting that new energy measures and initiatives could play a cost-effective hand in pursuing multi-objective climate and environmental governance. |
| Keywords: | New energy model city construction program; Cost-effective; Collaborative emission abatement; Digital economy; China |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yon:wpaper:2025rwp-260 |
| By: | Yantuan Yu (Guangdong University of Foreign Studies); Ning Zhang (Yonsei University) |
| Abstract: | The effect of market-based climate policy instruments on a just transition cannot be underestimated, especially for developing economies. In this study, we provide rigorous empirical evidence on how China’s Energy Quota Trading System(EQTS) can drive green technology innovation and support an equitable, low-carbon transition. Specifically, based on a quasi-experimental modeling framework, we use a Double Debiased Machine Learning method to estimate the casual effect of China’s EQTS on energy productivity. Further, we explore the mechanisms of impact and examine heterogeneity effects from regional, resource endowment, and environmental regulation stringency perspectives. The empirical findings show that EQTS significantly improves energy productivity, exhibiting an average marginal effect of 13.2%. Robustness checks confirm the validity of the results after controlling for potential confounders. Green technology innovation and energy transition function as critical pathways through which the policy enhances energy productivity. This study presents empirical evidence on how effective market-based regulatory mechanism are in the energy sector and offers practical policy recommendations for integrating innovation-driven strategies within national carbon mitigation frameworks. |
| Keywords: | Energy Quota Trading System; Energy Productivity; Natural-Experiment Modeling; Green Technology Innovation; Energy Transition |
| JEL: | O13 O47 Q43 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yon:wpaper:2025rwp-258 |
| By: | Keuschnigg, Christian; Stalenis, Giedrius |
| JEL: | D21 D62 H23 O33 Q41 Q43 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325400 |
| By: | Zachariadis, Theodoros; Taliotis, Constantinos; Moleskis, Melina; Solomou, Pantelis |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the findings of our model-based study on the transition of Cyprus to a net-zero economy. A climate-neutral Cyprus will be characterised by almost complete replacement of fossil fuels by electricity and renewable sources, full utilisation of waste and use of renewable hydrogen in transport and heavy industry. This will require serious public and private investments, which however can be beneficial for the economy and society. Still, important challenges lie ahead that call for swift policy action. Apart from long-term planning that must start today, effective implementation of green policies is key. In this context, the paper also provides a background on behavioural barriers that should be overcome, as the lack in understanding human behaviour is at the heart of the sustainability challenge. Drawing from our recent work for Cypriot authorities, we highlight directions in which policy-making in Cyprus can be enhanced, with special attention to energy poverty. |
| Keywords: | behavioural insights; carbon neutrality; climate policy; energy poverty; net-zero economy |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129620 |
| By: | Yantuan Yu (Guangdong University of Foreign Studies); Ning Zhang (Yonsei University) |
| Abstract: | While the critical roles of technology and finance in pollution abatement have been empirically ascertained, the synergistic effects of their integration on carbon mitigation and carbon marginal abatement costs (CMAC) of carbon remain underexplored in existing literature. In this paper, we first treat the scientific-technological and finance pilot policy (STFPP) as a quasi-experimental, and identify its effects on carbon emissions and CMAC using the staggered difference-in-differences strategy. Empirical findings show that the STFPP leads to a 5.2% decrease in carbon emissions alongside a reduction in CMAC by 1520 RMB per ton. It is also found that STFPP has a pronounced effect in reducing carbon emissions through three mechanisms: strengthening carbon reduction policy intensity, promoting green technological innovation, and facilitating integration of digital and real economies. This investigation not only constructs a theoretical scaffold but also provides empirical evidence that elucidates the specific mechanisms by which STFPP can effectively decrease both carbon emissions and CMAC. Our paper provides a practical basis for reinforcing the role of STFPP in environmental governance, equipping policymakers with valuable insights for strategic decision-making. |
| Keywords: | Scientific-Technological and Finance Pilot Policy; Low-Carbon Development; Difference-in-Differences; Carbon Marginal Abatement Costs; Technological Innovation |
| JEL: | O38 Q53 Q56 R51 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yon:wpaper:2025rwp-259 |
| By: | Eßer, Jana |
| JEL: | C90 D90 Q51 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325465 |
| By: | Christoph Böhringer; Carsten Helm; Laura Schürer |
| Abstract: | Countries’ current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement leave a substantial gap to the emissions reductions needed to limit global warming to 2°C. Böhringer et al. (2025) showed the large emissions reduction potential of global emissions trading even if countries choose their tradable emissions reduction contributions strategically as mutual bestresponse strategies. However, the prospects for a global trading system appear rather bleak. By contrast, countries have already started to trade emissions reductions in bilateral agreements under Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement. Even though bilateral agreements may appear to be a significant restriction at first glance, they prove to be quite effective in terms of global emissions reductions when strategic choices of tradable emissions reduction contributions are taken into account. Numerical simulations based on empirical data show that the most effective bilateral trading club – consisting of South Korea or Europe and China – increases global emissions abatement from 17% (relative to BaU) without trading to 30%, and exploits 80% of the emissions reduction potential of a global trading system. |
| Keywords: | Paris Agreement, Article 6, emissions trading, NDCs |
| JEL: | H23 Q54 Q56 Q58 C72 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12170 |
| By: | Salakhova, Dilyara; Giuzio, Margherita; Kapadia, Sujit; Mazzolini, Giulio |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the environmental performance of sustainability-related investment funds compared to conventional ones across three dimensions: financed activities, portfolio carbon footprint, and investment in firms with ambitious science-based targets. We identify ESG funds using Morningstar (MS) strategies, the Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation’s Article 8/9 classification, and funds’ self-naming. We find that the greenest funds invest more in low-carbon sectors, but their carbon footprints are comparable to conventional funds. Also, MS Low-Carbon and Art.8 funds tend to invest in the same sectors as conventional funds but target less polluting firms. Overall, results reveal inconsistencies between ESG labels and outcomes, highlighting the limited role these funds currently play in financing the transition to a net-zero economy. JEL Classification: C58, G11, G23, Q50, Q56 |
| Keywords: | climate change, ESG funds, low-carbon transition, sustainable finance |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253121 |
| By: | Julia Eder (Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria; Socio-Ecological Transformation Lab, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria); Jakob Rammer (University of Vienna, Austria) |
| Abstract: | The European Unions (EU) green agenda, embedded in the European Green Deal, is promoted as a strategy to tackle intertwined crises of climate change, energy insecurity, and profit overaccumulation in a tense geopolitical environment. Central to this agenda is the large-scale deployment of green hydrogen (GH2) as both an energy storage solution and a decarbonisation pathway for hard-to-abate sectors. While the EU sets ambitious targets of 10 million tons of domestic GH2 production and an equivalent volume of imports by 2030, these goals rely heavily on establishing supply partnerships with countries in the Global South. This article interrogates the EUs GH2 strategy through the lens of dependency theory, focusing on Chile, a country with vast renewable energy potential and positioned by the EU as a trusted ally. Drawing on eleven expert interviews conducted in Europe and Chile as well as a qualitative content analysis of policy documents, we analyse how EU-Chile hydrogen cooperation materialises in politico-economic practice. Our findings suggest that, while framed as mutually beneficial, the EUs GH2 agenda risks reinforcing Chiles peripheral role in the global division of labour and locking the country into resource-based specialisation. We conclude that the emerging hydrogen partnership exemplifies both the opportunities and dependency-related pitfalls of the EUs green transition when transposed onto North-South relations. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ico:wpaper:168 |
| By: | Semik, Sofia |
| JEL: | E52 H23 Q43 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325397 |
| By: | Meera Mahadevan |
| Abstract: | Electricity sectors in many developing countries are stuck in a vicious cycle of low prices, financial insolvency, and unreliable service. India’s state-owned utilities are emblematic of this problem, costing the government billions in bailouts while delivering poor electricity reliability. This paper leverages a large-scale reform in India’s power sector to show that raising electricity prices—while seemingly counterintuitive—can help propel the sector out of this cycle. Using state-level variation in the implementation of the reforms, I find that manufacturing firms in states where electricity reliability improved increased their consumption of grid electricity by 19%, despite a 3% rise in average prices. Firms also increased worker hours and output, highlighting that previously, unreliable electricity was a binding constraint on production. These results suggest that raising prices, when coupled with improved service quality, is a viable strategy for breaking the cycle of low investment and poor utility performance in the developing world. |
| Keywords: | electricity, energy sector reform, manufacturing firms, public utilities, India |
| JEL: | O13 O14 O38 L94 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12168 |
| By: | Abdul Ghaffar (BZU - Bahauddin Zakariya University); Muhammad Asif (Ghazi University); Areeba Ejaz (Ghazi University); Kashif Raza (Ghazi University) |
| Abstract: | Digital financial inclusion (DFI) initiatives have transformed the economy and environment by providing previously underbanked regions with enhanced access to banking, payment processing, and other financial services. This study analyses the correlations among DFI, GDP growth, and ecological sustainability, using the rapid expansion of digital finance in China as a case study. The research used econometric models to examine the impact of DFI on GDP growth and CO₂ emissions, including factors such as renewable energy adoption, industrial efficiency, and trade patterns. This purpose employs panel data from many national and international sources. The results demonstrate that reduced carbon intensity and improved economic inclusion correlate with heightened DFI penetration. Improved resource allocation, less travel for transactions, and increased green investment flows contribute to lower carbon intensity. The results suggest that DFI may fulfil climate action goals while promoting equitable growth, benefiting policymakers aiming to include financial innovation in sustainable development plans. |
| Keywords: | Digital Financial Inclusion, Sustainable Development, Digital Governance, China Natural Resources, China, Natural Resources, Natural Resources Digital Financial Inclusion Sustainable Development Digital Governance China Natural Resources Digital Financial Inclusion Sustainable Development Digital Governance China |
| Date: | 2025–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05236350 |
| By: | Wozny, Florian |
| JEL: | H22 L13 Q52 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325370 |
| By: | Stathis Devves; Angelos Alamanos; Giannis Arampatzidis; Phoebe Koundouri |
| Abstract: | The energy and water sectors face increasing challenges amid sustainability and net-zero transitions, which are integral to meeting the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The need for integrated models that connect energy, emissions, and water use is critical for developing holistic and sustainable solutions. This chapter focuses on a water-energy-emissions modelling application for the residential sector, a key development area impacting SDGs related to energy, sustainable urbanization, and environmental management. We apply a combined energy-emissions and water accounting model to assess energy use, emissions output, and water consumption of Greece's residential sector, providing comprehensive, data-driven insights. Such integrated assessments are essential for informed policy evaluation and decision-making. We also analyze Greece's national decarbonization plan to 2050, demonstrating how these models can support policy evaluation and discuss the efficiency of the planned pathways. This approach underscores the importance of cross-sectoral analysis for successful long-term sustainable initiatives. |
| Keywords: | Energy emissions modelling, WaterReq GCH Decarbonization, Sustainable Development Goals, Urban development, Greece |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2554 |
| By: | Joxe Mari Barrutiabengoa; Rafael Ortiz Durán |
| Abstract: | The study estimates the employment effects of utility-scale solar and wind installations in Spain using microdata and local projection methods. Results show significant job creation, varying by phase, plant size, education, and technology, with notable spillovers to economically linked provinces. The study estimates the employment effects of utility-scale solar and wind installations in Spain using microdata and local projection methods. Results show significant job creation, varying by phase, plant size, education, and technology, with notable spillovers to economically linked provinces. |
| Keywords: | Renewable energies, Energías renovables, LFS, EPA, Green competences, Competencias verdes, Spanish regions, Regiones españolas, Job creation, Creación de empleo, Spain, España, Macroeconomic Analysis, Análisis Macroeconómico, Regional Analysis Spain, Análisis Regional España, Energy and Commodities, Energía y Materias Primas, Employment, Empleo, Climate Sustainability, Sostenibilidad Climática, Working Paper, Documento de Trabajo |
| JEL: | L94 O25 R23 C33 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bbv:wpaper:2511 |
| By: | Ghayal, Achintya |
| Abstract: | Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) reporting has shifted from voluntary disclosure to a regulatory imperative and cornerstone of corporate transparency. Traditional cost accounting systems, which emphasize direct, indirect, and overhead costs, often ignore externalities like carbon emissions, social equity investments, and governance overhead. This study investigates how embedding ESG-driven cost allocations reshapes financial reporting and managerial decisions in manufacturing firms. Using a simulated dataset spanning three divisions (Energy, Materials, Consumer), we compare outcomes under conventional accounting and an ESG-adjusted framework that includes carbon pricing equivalents, compliance costs, worker and governance programs. Our results show that ESG adjustments increase reported costs by approximately 20-30% and reduce operating margins by 5-7 percentage points, while significantly improving transparency across environmental, social, and governance metrics. Sensitivity analyses (varying carbon pricing) indicate that margin declines are robust to plausible environmental cost changes, though divisions with higher emissions are most affected. This research contributes to sustainability accounting by operationalizing ESG into cost allocation mechanics rather than treating it as supplementary disclosure. It provides a practical model for managers, regulators, and investors seeking to balance profitability with long-term accountability and risk mitigation. |
| Date: | 2025–09–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:4ge2z_v1 |
| By: | Monica Bonacina (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Università degli Studi di Milano); Mert Demir (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Antonio Sileo (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, GREEN – Università Bocconi); Angela Zanoni (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Università di Roma La Sapienza, Research Institute for Sustainable Economic Growth – National Research Council) |
| Abstract: | The transition to a zero-emission vehicle fleet represents a pivotal element of Europe’s decarbonization strategy, with Italy’s participation being particularly significant given the size of its automotive market. This study investigates the potential for battery electric cars (BEVs) to drive decarbonization of Italy’s passenger vehicle fleet, focusing on the feasibility of targets set in the National Integrated Plan for Energy and Climate (PNIEC). Leveraging artificial neural networks, we integrate macroeconomic indicators, market-specific variables, and policy instruments to predict fleet dynamics and identify key factors influencing BEV adoption. We forecast that while BEV registrations will continue growing through 2030, the growth rate is projected to decelerate, presenting challenges for meeting ambitious policy targets. Our feature importance analysis demonstrates that BEV adoption is driven by an interconnected set of economic, infrastructural, and behavioral factors. Specifically, our model highlights that hybrid vehicle registrations and the vehicle purchase index exert the strongest influence on BEV registrations, suggesting that policy interventions should prioritize these areas to maximize impact. By offering data-driven insights and methodological innovations, our findings contribute to more effective policy design for accelerating sustainable mobility adoption while accounting for market realities and consumer behavior. |
| Keywords: | sustainable mobility, electric vehicle, neural networks, shap interpretation |
| JEL: | N74 Q55 Q58 R40 C45 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2025.16 |
| By: | Carlo Andrea Bollino (Department of Economics, University of Perugia, LUISS University, University G. Marconi); Marzio Galeotti (Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of Milan, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei) |
| Abstract: | While population growth is a known driver of CO2 emissions, prevailing models often treat “population” as a homogeneous factor. This study addresses a critical gap, providing the first comprehensive empirical analysis to disaggregate the contributions of native-born and migrant populations to domestic CO2 emissions. Using an extended STIRPAT model for 172 countries (1990-2022), separated by OECD and non-OECD blocs, we uncover two novel insights. First, native-born populations consistently exhibit a substantially higher emissions elasticity than migrants in both country groups. Second, a dynamic shift occurred in OECD countries: migrants’ initially higher per capita emissions impact steadily declined over time, becoming lower than native-born individuals after 2003-2004. This refutes simplistic notions that migration inherently increases emissions. Our findings underscore the urgent need for differentiated, equitable climate policies that acknowledge the heterogeneous and evolving consumption patterns of diverse demographic groups, enabling more efficient mitigation strategies. |
| Keywords: | CO2 emissions, international migration, STIRPAT model, population elasticity, cross-country panel, OECD countries |
| JEL: | C33 J11 J15 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2025.17 |
| By: | Jan Behringer (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Lukas Endres (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Maike Korsinnek (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)) |
| Abstract: | We examine how perceptions about the costs of carbon pricing affect policy acceptance. Using a representative sample of the German population, we conduct experiments that provide randomly selected respondents with personalized information about their costs at the current carbon price or a higher future price. Participants tend to overestimate their current costs and increase their carbon price acceptance when receiving cost information. In contrast, respondents underestimate future costs and reduce their support once they learn about actual costs. This underscores the importance of personalized information in fostering current support for carbon pricing, while cautioning against potential backlash as prices rise. |
| Keywords: | Carbon pricing, policy acceptance, perceptions, experiment |
| JEL: | D12 D83 H23 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:wpaper:226-2025 |
| By: | Hakenes, Hendrik; Schliephake, Eva |
| JEL: | D62 D64 G30 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325389 |
| By: | Ehrhart, Karl-Martin; Eicke, Anselm; Hirth, Lion; Ocker, Fabian; Ott, Marion; Schlecht, Ingmar; Wang, Runxi |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a game-theoretic model to analyze the strategic behavior of inc-dec gaming in market-based congestion management (redispatch). We extend existing models by considering incomplete information about competitors' costs and a finite set of providers. We find that inc-dec gaming is also a rational behavior in markets with high competition and with uncertainty about network constraints. Such behavior already occurs in our setup of two regions. Comparing market-based redispatch with three theoretical benchmarks highlights a lower efficiency level of market-based redispatch and inflated redispatch payments. Finally, we study seven variations of our basic model to assess whether different market fundamentals or market design changes mitigate incdec gaming. None of these variations eliminate inc-dec gaming entirely. |
| Keywords: | Energy market, Game theory, Auctions/bidding, Congestion management, Inc-dec gaming |
| JEL: | D43 D44 L13 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:327112 |
| By: | Karsten Neuhoff; Seabron Adamson; Luis Olmos; Anthony Papavasiliou; Silvia Vitello; Konstantin Staschus; Leon Stolle |
| Abstract: | Motivation: As the share of renewables in power generation increases, the system needs greater flexibility to ensure that wind and solar energy, which might otherwise be curtailed due to mismatches in time and location of supply and demand, can be stored or transmitted to where and when they are needed or most valuable. Local market prices are essential to make use of demand side flexibility and storage. At times and locations of high renewable production, the prices tend to be low, and heat, hydro, battery and intermediary product storage can be filled. Vice versa, in periods of low renewable production, the stored energy can be released. As local market prices encourage market participants to behave consistently with system needs, they increase predictability of flow patterns and thus require lower security margins to reach the same level of system security. The increased network utilization allows for increased pooling and sharing of flexibility across regions. (...) |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:327655 |
| By: | Anh H. Le (Goethe University Frankfurt); John Beirne (Asian Development Bank); Donghyun Park (Asian Development Bank); Gazi Salah Uddin (Linköping University) |
| Abstract: | We empirically examine the impact of carbon pricing on key macroeconomic variables and inclusive development with a newly compiled panel dataset covering 48 countries from 1989 to 2024. Using the local-projection difference-in-differences approach, we find that the introduction of carbon pricing significantly reduces carbon emissions but also imposes substantial macroeconomic costs. Countries with carbon prices experience lower gross domestic product (GDP), lower consumption, and higher debt-to-GDP ratios. In addition, carbon pricing is associated with increased income inequality and a decline in human development. The adverse effects are particularly pronounced in countries with high public debt but are notably more muted in countries with higher environmental spending. Importantly, environmental spending mitigates many negative impacts of carbon pricing while reducing emissions. |
| Keywords: | carbon pricing;inclusive growth;climate change;environmental policy;transition risk |
| JEL: | E31 E50 D63 E62 H00 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–09–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:021558 |
| By: | Janser, Markus; Jarvis, Stephen; von Graevenitz, Kathrine; Wagner, Ulrich J. |
| JEL: | D22 H23 L23 L60 Q52 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325466 |
| By: | Johnston, Sarah; Liu, Yifei; Yang, Chenyu |
| Abstract: | Meeting projected growth in electricity demand and climate goals will require building new electricity generators. The grid connection process is seen as a key constraint on this development. We collect new data on grid connection costs for PJM, the largest regional grid operator in the United States. We geographically match these costs to transmission spending to study their determinants. Using regression analysis, we find that these costs, and especially the network upgrade portion, are difficult to predict: generators with similar characteristics can have very different costs. We also find that planned generators with high network upgrade costs are much more likely to be canceled. Finally, prior transmission spending by the grid operator is associated with lower network upgrade costs for connecting generators. These findings emphasize the critical role of transmission capacity in expanding electricity generation capacity. |
| Date: | 2025–09–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-25-21 |
| By: | Psarras, Andreas; Panagiotidis, Theodore; Andronikidis, Andreas |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between petrol prices and vehicle collisions using Greek data from 2012 to 2021. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models are employed for daily motor vehicle collisions. Our analysis reveals that petrol prices have a significant impact on vehicle collisions. Fatal vehicle collisions decrease during relatively high petrol prices, whereas light-injury vehicle collisions increase. No significant relationship was found between severe-injury vehicle collisions and fuel prices. We also analyze daily data on motorcycle vehicle collisions and find a positive relationship between these accidents and fuel prices. When considering models with lagged fuel prices, our results indicate that in all cases, vehicle collisions decrease during periods of increasing fuel prices. These findings suggest that policies targeting motorcycling safety are particularly necessary during times of rising fuel prices. |
| Keywords: | petrol prices; traffic safety; road accidents; motorcycle accidents |
| JEL: | R41 I19 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129625 |
| By: | Antonio Abatemarco (Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Salerno and CELPE); Roberto Dell’Anno (Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Salerno and CELPE); Elena Lagomarsino (Department of Economics, University of Genova) |
| Abstract: | The implementation of environmental policies varies substantially across geographical areas. This paper proposes a conceptual and methodological framework—adapted from the health economics literature— to assess equity in the allocation of environmental policy effort. We define “environmental care” as the set of local policy interventions aimed at improving environmental quality within an area, and evaluate its distribution relative to environmental need. Using direct and indirect standardization techniques, we measure horizontal inequity (unequal care among areas with similar need) and vertical inequity (differential care in response to differing needs). Applying this framework to traffic-related air pollution policies in Italian municipalities from 2012 to 2021, we find that the observed reduction of overall inequality in environmental care is mostly driven by a decline in horizontal inequity. However, we find evidence of persistent socioeconomic disparities, with lower-income municipalities receiving disproportionately less policy effort relative to their environmental needs. |
| Keywords: | environmental equity, environmental inequality, air pollution, distributive justice |
| JEL: | Q53 Q58 R58 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2025.14 |
| By: | Cristina Badarau (University of Bordeaux); Corentin Roussel (University of Strasbourg) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether a Counter-Cyclical Buffer (CCyB) indexed to carbon-intensive credits, i.e., a carbon-intensive CCyB, is consistent with the banking stability objectives of financial regulators when unregulated banks operate in credit markets. To do so, we assess the consistency of the carbon-intensive CCyB regulation through the lens of a general equilibrium model that encompasses polluting and non-polluting firms (i.e., green and brown firms, respectively), as well as traditional and shadow banks (i.e., regulated and unregulated banks, respectively). We find that a carbon-intensive CCyB regulation is not the most suitable for financial regulators when there are no asymmetric leakages between green and brown loans for traditional and shadow banks. However, a strict emissions tax applied to the production of brown firms favors the adoption of a carbon-intensive CCyB regulation by financial regulators. Moreover, a carbon-intensive CCyB could be suitable when traditional banks are more involved in the green credit market than in the brown one. This last result highlights the need for regulators to carefully coordinate their green policies to avoid jeopardizing the stability of the banking system. |
| Keywords: | Counter-cyclical capital buffers, carbon-intensive credits, shadow banks, General Equilibrium Model |
| JEL: | E G Q |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inf:wpaper:2025.14 |
| By: | Moshe Ben-Akiva; Michel Bierlaire; Khan Doyme; Shari Gershenfeld; Nathalie Picard; Andreas W. Schäfer; Ravi Seshadri; Aruna Sivakumar; Linda Steg |
| Abstract: | Achieving effective decarbonization requires not only technological innovation but also a deep understanding of human behavior. This paper, based on an interdisciplinary workshop, highlights the necessity of integrating behavioral insights into the design of climate policies to ensure they are technically effective, socially acceptable, and equitable. We propose a methodological framework combining behavioral data collection, choice modeling, agent-based simulation, and optimization to forecast the impacts of policy measures and support adaptive policymaking under deep uncertainty. While the focus is on decarbonizing the transport sector, the approach is broadly applicable across sectors, aiming to enhance both emissions reductions and societal well-being. |
| Keywords: | Decarbonization, climate policies, behavior, equity, uncertainty, transport |
| JEL: | Q54 Q55 Q58 R41 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2025-31 |
| By: | Lenders, Marc |
| JEL: | H21 H41 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325437 |
| By: | Federico Fabio Frattini (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Francesco Vona (University of Milan and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Filippo Bontadini (Luiss University and SPRU - University of Sussex); Italo Colantone (Bocconi University, GREEN Research Center, Baffi Research Centre, CESifo and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei) |
| Abstract: | What are the job multipliers of the green industrialization? We tackle this question within EU regions over the period 2003-2017, building a novel measure of green manufacturing penetration that combines green production and regional employment data. We estimate local job multipliers of green penetration in a long-difference model, using a shift-share instrument that exploits plausibly exogenous changes in non-EU green innovation. We find that a 3-years change in green penetration per worker increases the employment-to-active population ratio by 0.11 pp. The effect is: persistent both in manufacturing and outside manufacturing; halved by agglomeration effects that increase the labour market tightness; stronger for workers with high and low-education; and present also in regions specialized in polluting industries. When focusing on large shocks in a staggered DiD design, we find ten times larger effects, particularly in earlier periods. |
| Keywords: | Green industrialisation, Local job multipliers, Employment effects of the green transition, Shift-share IV design, Difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | J21 O14 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2025.13 |
| By: | Jean Arrous |
| Abstract: | Largely overlooked due to the division of our discipline into micro- and macroeconomics, Wassily Leontief’s input-output analysis is not only a formal theory but also a research strategy. As formal theory, it describes economic activity based on that of the different industries, thereby leading to the calculation of labour-value, price determination and GDP. As research strategy, it is applied to ecological and energy transitions leading to the calculation of pollution-value and energy-value. |
| Keywords: | Leontief, input–output analysis, Leontief technology, technological matrix, Leontief inverse matrix, production possibility frontier, labor-value, pollution-value, energy-value, equilibrium prices, augmented Leontief matrix, profit margin and structural profit margin, input–output table, distribution of national income, Perron–Frobenius theorems, factor-price frontier, ecological transition, energy transition. |
| JEL: | A23 C67 D33 D57 E01 E17 E23 J21 L16 L23 O13 P18 P28 Q4 Q5 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2025-34 |
| By: | Knudsen, Camilla; Moura, Fernanda Senra de; Bucker, Joris Joseph Johannes Hendrik; Mealy, Penelope Ann |
| Abstract: | The labor market is undergoing major changes driven by technological, economic, and demographic factors. Climate change and climate action are contributing to these shifts, driving growth in some sectors while causing decline in others. In the context of the green transition, the overall impact on employment is expected to be neutral or net positive. However, labor market frictions can hinder workers from transitioning out of declining sectors or into growing ones, posing significant development challenges. These bottlenecks can slow down the pace of the green transition and lead to adverse outcomes for workers who are unable to find suitable alternative employment, resulting in negative impacts at both the micro and macroeconomic levels. This paper proposes a framework that classifies labor market frictions along five dimensions: what workers do, where workers are, when workers are available, who workers are, and why people work. Frictions arise when there is a misalignment between labor supply and labor demand in any of these dimensions. Within the framework, these misalignments are categorized as skill-, spatial-, temporal-, norm-, or preference-related mismatches, respectively. Drawing on insights from World Bank analyses, the paper further identifies potential solutions to address each friction, providing guidance for policymakers to facilitate smoother workforce transitions and maximize macroeconomic benefits from the green transition. Although developed in the context of the green transition, the framework can be generalized to other economic shocks and transformations. |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11224 |
| By: | Gazze, Ludovica (University of Warwick); Gupta, Tanu; Huang, Allen (Weiyi); Londoño, Valentina; Saavedra, Santiago; Toma, Mattie (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | There is limited evidence on the non-health impacts of air pollution, including productivity in the workplace and behavior. We examine the effect of air pollution on participation, collaboration, and feedback provision in a workplace setting. Our experiment randomly assigns air purifiers to rooms at three large academic conferences to investigate the causal impact of air pollution on participants’ engagement behavior. We construct a participant engagement index based on 12 presentation-level behavioral outcomes directly measured by conference observers through an online form and weigh each behavioral outcome using weights elicited from an expert survey. Conference rooms treated with air purifiers exhibit 48% less PM2.5 concentration compared to control rooms. However, we do not find a statistically significant change in engagement. Communication in the workplace might not be a large driver of the empirical relationship between air quality and productivity, albeit more research is needed across workplaces and measures of communication. |
| Keywords: | Indoor air quality ; Engagement ; Workplace ; Field Experiment JEL Codes: Q53 ; J24 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1579 |
| By: | Alessandra Drigo (University of Milan, Department of Environmental Science and Policy, and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei) |
| Abstract: | This study offers the first analysis of environmental and climate inequalities at the census tract level in Italy, providing valuable insights into spatial patterns of environmental and social vulnerability. The results highlight significant environmental inequality related to exposure to air pollution (PM2.5), as well as climate inequality linked to thermal discomfort (measured by the Discomfort Index). Among all regions, the Padana Valley stands out as the most severely affected by both stressors, marking its population as particularly vulnerable regardless of their socioeconomic status. At the national level, the analysis identifies a negative correlation between exposure to environmental stressors and income proxies, and a positive correlation with the presence of non-European foreign residents. These associations remain robust even when the focus shifts to census tracts within the same municipality, suggesting that environmental and social inequalities persist not only across regions but also within local urban contexts. |
| Keywords: | Environmental inequality, Environmental justice, Air pollution, Socioeconomic status, Climate Justice, Discomfort Index |
| JEL: | Q53 Q56 I14 C21 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2025.12 |
| By: | Ille, Sebastian; Carrera, Edgar J. Sanchez |
| Abstract: | With the increasing demand for sustainable products, greenwashing has become more prevalent and sophisticated over the past decade. To better understand the incentives for firms to greenwash, we develop an evolutionary game-theoretic model in which firms may choose to mimic green behavior without having to bear the cost linked to green investment and production. We provide the conditions for the different evolutionarily stable equilibria. In a second step, we extend the model using agent-based simulations to incorporate path-dependent investment/production costs, history-dependent mimicry effectiveness, peer effects, and localized firm interactions. We show that the simpler model with random matching offers good approximations of the equilibrium conditions in more complex setups, but market segmentation supports green investment and production in contrast to higher penalties. While curtailing opportunities to pretend green behavior boosts green production, we also find that increasing cost efficiencies encourage firms to engage in green production, even in the face of increasingly sophisticated deceptive strategies. Based on our results, we suggest trio-targeted policies that reduce the (initial) costs of green investment/production, curtail opportunities to mimic green behavior, and support segmentation. |
| Keywords: | climate change; non-linear macroeconomic models; greenwashing; corporate sustainability |
| JEL: | C7 D2 Q5 |
| Date: | 2025–08–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126152 |
| By: | Gessner, Johannes |
| JEL: | O30 Q55 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325442 |
| By: | Sebastian Dullien (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Katja Rietzler (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)) |
| Abstract: | This policy brief presents simulation results regarding the macroeconomic effects of a green EU public investment fund using the macroeconometric simulation model NiGEM. After briefly outlining the investment needs in the EU, we first present results using the standard version of NiGEM. We then extend the simulations in the main sections of the Policy Brief by taking climate change into account. By applying the climate version of NiGEM, we simulate various policy scenarios of the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), both with and without an EU investment fund. Our results show considerable negative impacts on GDP, along with inflationary effects arising from CO2-taxation alone. Accounting for climate change and the corresponding long-term damage to GDP, however, our results show that not acting on climate change now causes far more severe damages in the future. A debt-financed EU investment fund would help – besides from faster promoting the greening of the European economies – by cushioning the negative transitory GDP effects in the next ten years, without risking debt sustainability. Finally, our results highlight the importance of cooperation such that climate change policies are implemented on a global level. |
| Keywords: | EU investment fund, green investment, public investment, climate policy, climate change |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:pbrief:197-2025 |
| By: | Bruns, Daniel; Thomsen, Stephan L. |
| JEL: | Q48 Q51 Q53 R31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325450 |
| By: | Fischer, Kai; Zheng, Honghao |
| JEL: | D24 L11 L52 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325360 |
| By: | Voss, Achim; Schopf, Mark |
| JEL: | D15 D61 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325395 |
| By: | Sieger, Lisa; Weber, Christoph; Stein, Tobias |
| JEL: | C31 Q28 Q55 R12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325393 |
| By: | Lenders, Marc |
| JEL: | D90 H21 H23 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325435 |
| By: | De Santis, Roberto A.; Tornese, Tommaso |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have complicated macroeconomic forecasting and policymaking due to unprecedented disruptions in supply chains and energy markets, suggesting a new macroeconomic regime. However, we are unable to reject the null hypothesis of no structural break in March 2020. We then examine whether these shocks have increased post-COVID-19. Their sizes were initially elevated, but then have been gradually returning to pre-pandemic levels. The linear and nonlinear models reveal that supply chain disruptions cause persistent increases in expected inflation and headline goods prices, while energy supply shocks have a transitory inflation effect. The nonlinear model shows that real GDP is adversely affected by supply shocks in low growth periods. JEL Classification: C32, E32 |
| Keywords: | business cycles, energy shocks, narrative identification, nonlinearities, supply-chain disruption shocks, TVAR |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253120 |
| By: | Natasha Aggarwal (TrustBridge Rule of Law Foundation); Bhavin Patel (TrustBridge Rule of Law Foundation) |
| Abstract: | Appellate tribunals were established to ensure speedy and expert adjudication of appeals from regulators’ orders. However, tribunals in India frequently remand matters to regulators, resulting in prolonged delays and undermining regulatory certainty. This paper provides introductory overviews of the Securities Appellate Tribunal (sat) and the Appellate Tribunal for Electricity (aptel) and analyses orders issued by these tribunals in 2024. We find that 13/228 sat orders (5.7%) and 28/171 aptel orders (16.4%) direct remands. We also evaluate whether these remands are consistent with recognised legal principles regarding when a remand may be ordered. In the absence of specific rules governing when tribunals can remand matters, we rely on the Code of Civil Procedure, 1908 (cpc) and judicial decisions to determine the limits of tribunals’ powers of remand. We classify reasons in the cpc and judicial decisions as “Permissible Reasons†, and all others as “Other Reasons†and find that several remands by both tribunals are for Other Reasons. Such remands increase costs, create uncertainty, and defeat the purpose for which tribunals were established. We suggest that clear limits on tribunals’ power to remand, similar to those on courts’ remands powers, should be codified in parent statutes and made uniformly applicable across tribunals. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bjd:wpaper:14 |
| By: | Utsoree Das (University of Geneva); Erik Katovich (University of Connecticut); Jonah M. Rexer (The World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Empirical evidence and economic theory suggest multinational firms are more productive than their local counterparts. What explains the persistence of local firms and the recent surge in local content policies? Using a global database of corporate ownership changes for 35, 567 commercial mines between 2000-2022, we test whether local firms have a comparative advantage in dealing with weak institutions, corruption, and conflict, which could attenuate or reverse the multinational advantage. We confirm that, on average, output declines by 8% after mines are taken over by local firms. Localized assets also exhibit higher air pollution, indicating lower operational quality. However, in states with weak governance, localization increases mine output by 8%. Local firms also generate more economic activity, urbanization, and non-agricultural employment around mines, indicating stronger local linkages. While multinational mining firms exhibit increasing returns to scale, local firms exhibit decreasing returns, suggesting they may grow based on their ability to navigate institutional weaknesses rather than their productivity. Results highlight the role of institutions in determining relative advantages of multinational versus local firms. |
| Keywords: | Resources, governance, firm ownership, foreign investment, conflict |
| JEL: | F L O Q |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inf:wpaper:2025.15 |
| By: | Feng, Wenxiu; Alcántara Mata, Antonio; Ruiz Mora, Carlos |
| Abstract: | Wind farm placement arranges the size and the location of multiple wind farms within a given region. The power output is highly related to the wind speed on spatial and temporal levels, which can be modeled by advanced data-driven approaches. To this end, we use a probabilistic neural network as a surrogate that accounts for the spatiotemporal correlations of wind speed. This neural network uses ReLU activation functions so that it can be reformulated as mixed-integer linear set of constraints (constraint learning). We embed these constraints into the placement decision problem, formulated as a two-stage stochastic optimization problem. Specifically, conditional quantiles of the total electricity production are regarded as recursive decisions in the second stage. We use real high-resolution regional data from a northern region in Spain. We validate that the constraint learning approach outperforms the classical bilinear interpolation method. Numerical experiments are implemented on risk-averse investors. The results indicate that risk-averse investors concentrate on dominant sites with strong wind, while exhibiting spatial diversification and sensitive capacity spread in non-dominant sites. Furthermore, we show that if we introduce transmission line costs in the problem, risk-averse investors favor locations closer to the substations. On the contrary, risk-neutral investors are willing to move to further locations to achieve higher expected profits. Our results conclude that the proposed novel approach is able to tackle a portfolio of regional wind farm placements and further provide guidance for risk-averse investors. |
| Keywords: | Constraint learning; Optimal investment; Quantile neural network; Wind generation; Stochastic optimization |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:wsrepe:48103 |
| By: | Ritam Chaurey; Gaurav Nayyar; Siddharth Sharma; Eric Verhoogen |
| Abstract: | Knowledge spillovers among firms are widely viewed as a key driver of agglomeration and growth, but are difficult to estimate cleanly. We randomly allocated an energy-efficient motor --- a “servo'” motor --- among leather-goods firms in Dhaka, Bangladesh, and tracked adoption, information flows, beliefs about energy savings, and other variables. We use the difference between actual exposure and expected exposure (from simulated randomization draws) to identify the effect of exposure. We find a robust positive effect of exposure to treated neighbors within a small geographic area (500 meters in our baseline specification) on information flows and adoption. A marginal value of public funds (MVPF) calculation taking learning spillovers into account yields a significantly larger value than one considering only treated firms and suggests that adoption subsidies would be a cost-effective policy intervention. |
| JEL: | L23 L67 O12 O14 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34296 |
| By: | Flechtner, Svenja; Middelanis, Martin |
| JEL: | Q52 Q56 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325403 |
| By: | Mamadou Dit Koro Sidibé (USSGB - Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako, Faculté des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion - Université catholique de Bukavu); Mariama Sacko (USSGB - Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako); Tahirou Tangara (Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako - USSGB - Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako); Issa Sacko (Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako - USSGB - Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako) |
| Abstract: | Abstract : This study examines the impact of access to electricity, access to clean water, public health expenditures, and the school enrollment rate on the Human Development Index (HDI) in Mali over the period 2000–2023. The dataset consists of reliable national time series with 24 annual observations, allowing for a coherent assessment of both short- and long-term dynamics. The analysis is based on an ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model, suitable for mixed-order integrated series, which distinguishes between immediate and lasting effects of the explanatory variables. The estimated results indicate that, in the long run, access to electricity has a positive and statistically significant effect on HDI, confirming its central role as a structural infrastructure. In contrast, the coefficients for access to clean water and public health expenditures are negative and significant, which may reflect inefficiencies or governance issues in the management of these public services rather than an inherently adverse effect. School enrollment, on the other hand, does not show a significant effect according to the estimated model. These findings underscore the importance of strengthening electrical infrastructure while improving the quality and management of public services to support sustainable human development in Mali. The study has certain limitations, notably the small size of the annual sample and the absence of detailed regional data, which limits the generalization of the results. These constraints provide avenues for future research incorporating regional or sectoral data to better understand the determinants of human development. Keywords : Human development, access to electricity, clean water, health expenditures, school enrollment, ARDL, Mali. JEL Classification : C32, O15, Q41, O55 Paper type : Empirical research |
| Abstract: | Résumé : Cette étude analyse l'impact de l'accès à l'électricité, à l'eau potable, des dépenses publiques en santé et du taux de scolarisation sur l'indice de développement humain (IDH) au Mali, sur la période 2000-2023. La base de données mobilisée comprend des séries temporelles nationales fiables, couvrant 24 observations annuelles, permettant une évaluation cohérente des dynamiques à court et à long terme. L'analyse repose sur un modèle ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag), adapté aux séries intégrées d'ordres mixtes, qui permet de distinguer les effets immédiats et durables des variables explicatives. Les résultats estimés à partir du modèle ARDL indiquent qu'à long terme, l'accès à l'électricité exerce un effet positif et statistiquement significatif sur l'IDH, confirmant son rôle central comme infrastructure structurante. À l'inverse, les coefficients estimés pour l'accès à l'eau potable et pour les dépenses publiques en santé sont négatifs et significatifs, ce qui peut refléter des inefficiences ou des problèmes de gouvernance dans la gestion de ces services publics, plutôt qu'un impact intrinsèquement défavorable. Le taux de scolarisation, quant à lui, n'a pas d'effet significatif selon le modèle estimé. Ces constats soulignent l'importance de renforcer les infrastructures électriques tout en améliorant la qualité et la gestion des services publics pour soutenir un développement humain durable au Mali. L'étude comporte toutefois certaines limites, notamment la taille réduite de l'échantillon annuel et l'absence de données régionales détaillées, ce qui restreint la généralisation des résultats à l'ensemble du pays. Ces contraintes ouvrent des perspectives pour des recherches futures intégrant des données régionales ou sectorielles afin d'affiner la compréhension des déterminants du développement humain. Mots clés : Développement humain, accès à l'électricité, eau potable, dépenses de santé, scolarisation, ARDL, Mali. Classification JEL : C32, O15, Q41, O55 Type du papier : Recherche empirique |
| Keywords: | ARDL, Développement humain accès à l'électricité eau potable dépenses de santé scolarisation ARDL Mali. Classification JEL : C32 O15 Q41 O55 Type du papier : Recherche empirique Human development access to electricity clean water health expenditures school enrollment ARDL Mali. JEL Classification : C32 O15 Q41 O55 Paper type : Empirical research, Développement humain, accès à l'électricité, eau potable, dépenses de santé, scolarisation, Mali. Classification JEL : C32, O55 Paper type : Empirical research, Mali. JEL Classification : C32, school enrollment, health expenditures, clean water, access to electricity, O55 Type du papier : Recherche empirique Human development, Q41, O15 |
| Date: | 2025–09–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05242320 |
| By: | Anne Christine Eiller (EDF R&D SEQUOIA - EDF R&D - EDF R&D - EDF - EDF); Valérie Lesgards (EDF R&D SEQUOIA - EDF R&D - EDF R&D - EDF - EDF) |
| Abstract: | Cette communication traite des initiatives citoyennes dans les projets énergétiques, préexistantes à la réglementation européenne et française. Elle vise à identifier les motivations initiales des citoyens dans les projets ainsi que leur modèle d'organisation et d'implication. A partir du retour d'expérience des pionniers des communautés d'énergie, du recueil de leurs difficultés et de leurs succès sur la vie du projet, cette étude vise à répondre aux trois questions de recherches suivantes. i) Peut-on établir une typologie de projets citoyens nés au stade pré réglementaire ? Quels sont les fondamentaux de leur création et de leur constitution en termes d'objectifs, de gouvernance, de bénéfices attendus ? Il s'agit à ce stade de préciser l'ensemble des éléments du projet initial, de façon à établir une typologie des modèles de participation citoyenne. Le chapitre 3 est consacré à cette typologie. ii) Comment ces modèles ont-ils évolué dans le temps ? Quelle influence a eu la réglementation européenne et sa transposition dans le droit français sur leur évolution et sur leur dissémination ? Il convient d'examiner les résultats du projet, perçus par leur responsable, en termes de réalisation d'objectifs, de bénéfices escomptés et d'évolution. Le chapitre 3 traite également de ces questions. iii) Quels sont les facteurs de succès de ces communautés pionnières ? En particulier, comment résistent-elles aux aléas économiques et aux fluctuations des prix de l'énergie ? Le chapitre 4 identifie les facteurs qui facilitent le développement et la pérennité des communautés de citoyens. |
| Date: | 2025–06–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05235514 |