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on Development |
| By: | David Argente (Yale University and NBER); Paula Gonzalez-Alvarez (Yale University); Esteban Méndez-Chacón (Department of Economic Research, Central Bank of Costa Rica); Diana Van Patten (Yale University and NBER) |
| Abstract: | Digital payment platforms can displace cash and extend financial services to underserved populations, yet many adults worldwide remain unbanked. Leveraging granular microdata on individual transactions and user characteristics, we argue that broad cash substitution via peer-to-peer (P2P) platforms depends on a “rapid low income-gradient”—the speed at which adoption spreads from affluent early users to lower-income groups. In three Latin American cases—Brazil’s Pix, Costa Rica’s Sinpe Movil, and Mexico’s CoDi—we document that low adoption costs, strong network effects, coordinated supply-side integration, and early awareness efforts enabled Pix and Sinpe Movil to reach nearly all income segments within five years, whereas CoDi remains characterized by low usage and predominantly high-income adopters. ***Resumen: Las plataformas de pagos digitales pueden reemplazar el uso de efectivo y ampliar el acceso a servicios financieros para poblaciones desatendidas; sin embargo, muchas personas en todo el mundo siguen estando excluidas del sistema financiero. A partir del análisis de transacciones y características de los usuarios, sostenemos que la sustitución generalizada del efectivo mediante plataformas de pago entre pares (P2P) depende de aplanar de manera rápida el gradiente respecto al ingreso: es decir, de la velocidad con la que la adopción se expande desde los primeros usuarios de altos ingresos hacia los grupos de menores ingresos. En tres casos de América Latina—Pix en Brasil, Sinpe Móvil en Costa Rica y CoDi en México—documentamos que los bajos costos de adopción, los fuertes efectos de red, la integración coordinada del lado de la oferta y los esfuerzos tempranos de divulgación permitieron que Pix y Sinpe Móvil alcanzaran a casi todos los segmentos de ingresos en un plazo de cinco años, mientras que CoDi continúa caracterizándose por un uso limitado y una adopción predominantemente entre personas de altos ingresos. |
| Keywords: | Technology Adoption; Peer-to-Peer Payments; Digital Payments; Adopción tecnológica; Pagos entre pares; Pagos digitales |
| JEL: | E4 E5 O1 O2 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apk:doctra:2507 |
| By: | Yu Lilin Wätzold, Marlene; Cooke, Amanda; Ocampo-Ariza, Carolina; Umarishavu, Françoise; Wollni, Meike |
| Abstract: | Voluntary sustainability standards (VSS) provide consumers with the assurance that certified products are produced under more sustainable conditions. While the literature on VSS has expanded considerably, most studies rely on cross-sectional data, thereby providing only a snapshot in time and focus on the effects on single sustainability dimensions, thereby neglecting potential trade-offs between multiple dimensions. In addition, little is known of the extent outcomes are influenced by the duration of participation. Economic gains may accrue in the short to medium term, whereas ecological effects often take longer to materialize. Our study addresses these gaps by using a unique three-wave panel dataset from Rwanda’s smallholder coffee sector. We combine household-, buyer- and plot-level data to estimate how in-house certification (C.A.F.E. Practices), third-party certification (The Rainforest Alliance, Fairtrade, Organic, 4C), and certification duration are associated with both socioeconomic and ecological outcomes. Our results suggest that only third-party certification is significantly positively associated with socioeconomic outcomes such as coffee yield, prices, profits and returns to land. Moreover, we find that for both VSS types the socioeconomic outcomes increase, the longer a household is certified. Regarding ecological outcomes, only third-party certification duration shows significant positive associations with shade tree density. In addition, for both VSS types, we do not find any significant associations with outcomes related to animal diversity. Overall, the findings highlight that VSS should be understood as a long-term process where sustainability-related changes materialize over time. The findings also suggest that the environmental requirements – especially of in-house schemes – may be set too low. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Sustainability |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gausfs:373420 |
| By: | Manda, Constantine; Sango, Danford; Hoffmann, Vivian; de Brauw, Alan; Zakaria, Zakayo; Temba, George; Brown, Elizabeth; Richards, Dorothy; Rashid, Said |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of temporary subsidies for nutrient-dense foods on the diets of low-income households in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Vouchers for eggs, milk, and unflavored yogurt were provided to randomly selected households over a three-month period. The subsidies significantly increased the consumption of the targeted healthy foods while discounts were offered. These effects persisted up to 9 months after the end of the subsidy period and were accompanied by a shift in preferences for the targeted foods. Consumption of unhealthy complements, specifically sugar added to yogurt and milk, increased during the subsidy period. Finally, while poorer households initially benefited most, sustained impacts were greater among wealthier households. In sum, the findings demonstrate that subsidies for healthy foods can lead to sustained improvements in diets, while suggesting a role for accompanying interventions such as nutrition education to maximize net health benefits, and pointing to the need for ongoing support to the most vulnerable. |
| Keywords: | affordability; consumers; healthy diets; households; less favoured areas; subsidies; urban areas; Tanzania; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2025–10–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:177443 |
| By: | Ashmita Gupta (Asian Development Research Institute, India); Neha Hui (Department of Economics, University of Reading) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how trade liberalization reshaped caste-based occupational mobility in rural India. Using district-level exposure to the 1991 tariff reforms and nationally representative survey data, we provide the first causal evidence on how market integration affected labor market outcomes for Dalits (historically marginalized groups). We classify occupations by wages, skill intensity, task content, and international prestige scales to capture job quality. Our results show that while overall employment increased, Dalits in more liberalized districts were disproportionately excluded from high prestige occupations and shifted into low-wage, insecure work. Education emerges as a key mechanism: tariff exposure improved Dalit literacy but reduced higher-education attainment, limiting access to skilled jobs. These effects were most pronounced in states with flexible labor laws, where discriminatory hiring and firing practices could more easily operate. The findings demonstrate that structural reforms can reinforce existing social hierarchies, highlighting the importance of considering inequality transmission and barriers to mobility in assessing the population-wide effects of globalization. |
| Keywords: | trade liberalisation, caste, discrimination, occupational prestige, India |
| JEL: | J71 O24 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–11–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2025-05 |
| By: | Mariano Bosch (Inter American Development Bank); Guillermo Cruces (Universidad de San Andrés-CONICET, University of Nottingham); Stephanie González (CEDLAS-FCE-UNLP); María Teresa Silva-Porto (Inter American Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | In developing countries, informal labor is not only employed by illegal or unregistered firms but also by legal firms that hire workers informally, known as the intensive margin of labor informality. Reducing this type of work may have ambiguous effects on formal employment, depending on factors such as firm size and productivity. In collaboration with Peru’s labor inspection authority, we conducted a randomized mailing experiment targeting large firms with a high propensity for employing workers informally. The authority sent letters with either deterrence messages detailing fines for non-compliance or social norms messages highlighting the positive impacts of formality. We analyzed the impact of this intervention on formal employment levels over the following two years using monthly administrative data. The treated firms (particularly those in the deterrence treatment arm) and larger firms increased their formal employment levels. However, these increases followed a seasonal pattern coinciding with the high labor demand during the tourist season, suggesting that prior to the intervention, firms were employing temporary workers informally. The higher perceived cost of non-compliance led them to formalize some of these workers. The informal hiring of seasonal workers by these firms appears to have been motivated by basic tax evasion, and the absence of a negative effect on firm-level formal employment indicates that the firms were exploiting rents from low enforcement of regulations. |
| Keywords: | Randomized Controlled Trial, Social Security, Tax Audit, Tax Evasion, Mailing, Informality, Labor formalization |
| JEL: | C93 D91 H55 J46 O17 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sad:wpaper:172 |
| By: | Derenoncourt, Ellora (Princeton University); Gerard, Francois (Queen Mary, University of London); Lagos, Lorenzo (Brown University); Montialoux, Claire (UC Berkeley) |
| Abstract: | How do minimum wages affect informality? We study the near-doubling of the real minimum wage from 2000 to 2009 in Brazil, where 46% of the workforce is informal. Using labor force surveys covering the informal sector, we show the minimum wage exhibits near full passthrough to informal employees working in formal firms, about half of all informal employees. The formal-to-informal reallocation elasticity with respect to the formal wage is small: -0.28. Our findings illustrate how minimum wages can positively affect living standards for workers thought beyond the reach of labor law, a sizable share of the workforce in developing economies. |
| Keywords: | informality, minimum wages, inequality |
| JEL: | J23 J46 J88 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18234 |
| By: | Nichelatti, Enrico; Oppel, Annalena; Tagem, Abrams |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how floods impact inequality in South Africa by linking georeferenced flood data with cross-sectional household and individual data from the National Income Dynamics Study survey. Using a difference-in-differences estimation, we assess the causal effects of five major flood events between 2008 and 2017 on individual welfare across multiple dimensions: labour income, income with social benefits, post-fiscal income, consumption, and material deprivation. Our findings reveal that floods significantly reduce all income measures for individuals within 0.5 km of flood zones, with substantial spill-over effects extending to 1 km. While South Africa's extensive social grant system provides some cushioning, it is insufficiently shockresponsive to prevent welfare declines. Post-fiscal income falls as coverage gaps exclude informal workers, grant values erode due to post-disaster inflation, and indirect taxes continue to burden affected individuals. Floods also reduce individual consumption and increase material deprivation by destroying assets, disrupting markets, and raising the cost of essentials. These effects are particularly severe for low-income individuals in informal settlements, who face disproportionate exposure, limited recovery capacity, and prolonged deprivation. Our results demonstrate that floods are not merely environmental shocks but powerful drivers of inequality that interact with South Africa's pre-existing spatial, racial, and economic disparities. The findings underscore the need for shock-responsive social protection, resilient infrastructure investment, and equitable climate adaptation policies to prevent floods from further entrenching structural inequality. |
| Keywords: | inequality; climate change; floods; South Africa; individual welfare |
| JEL: | C21 H53 I32 O55 O51 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130047 |
| By: | Albornoz, Facundo; Almeyda, Gonzalo; Lombardi, María; Oubiña, Victoria; Zoido, Pablo |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of a randomized one-on-one remote phone tutoring program implemented between 2021 and 2023. The intervention reached more than seven thousand students in seven Latin American countries: Argentina, Brazil, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Paraguay and Peru. The program targeted students with low initial learning levels and focused on foundational numeracy skills using a differentiated instruction approach. We find that assignment to tutoring increased student test scores by 0.2 SD. Tutoring benefited all students, with no differential effects by gender, age, socioeconomic status, or baseline scores. Students who initially reported having difficulty with concentration or memory experienced larger average effects. Finally, we find that students with lower initial performance exhibited larger improvements in more basic mathematical operations, whereas those with better performance at baseline saw larger gains in more complex operations. This underscores the importance of offering differentiated instruction based on students initial performance. |
| Keywords: | remote tutoring;Foundational skills;Differentiated instruction;learning outcomes;Educational disparities |
| JEL: | I20 I24 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14342 |
| By: | Dang, Hai-Anh H (World Bank); Nguyen, Cuong Viet (National Economics University Vietnam) |
| Abstract: | Obtaining comparable poverty estimates over time is critical for monitoring poverty trends and informing effective poverty reduction policies. Yet hardly any developing countries could construct consistent poverty trends over extended time periods due to changes to the consumption survey questionnaires and poverty lines that reflect changing consumption patterns and living standards. Furthermore, spatial and temporal deflators could be unavailable or could have been unsystematically employed, which could result in worsening incomparability of consumption aggregates. We propose a solution to these data challenges by applying data imputation to 13 survey rounds for Viet Nam during 1993-2022. Our results provide new, comparable, and smoother estimates of poverty trends for Viet Nam. We also offer a useful case study for other similar contexts. |
| Keywords: | poverty, living standard, poverty imputation, household surveys, Viet Nam |
| JEL: | C15 I32 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18236 |
| By: | Yoshimichi Murakami (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN); Nur Nahar Yasmin (Faculty of Business Studies, University of Dhaka, BANGLADESH) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically examines the determinants of the gender wage gap across the wage distribution in rural Bangladesh, applying the Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition to the unconditional quantile regression approach. Using panel data from three rounds (2011–12, 2015, and 2019) of the Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey, this study controls for both household-level unobserved heterogeneity and selection bias in rural wage employment. Results reveal that the gender wage gap is most pronounced at the lower end of the distribution, providing strong evidence of the sticky floor phenomenon. We find that larger return to education and coefficient of full-time employment for females significantly contributed to a reduced wage gap at the upper end of the distribution, while larger return to education and coefficient of non-agricultural employment for females contributed to narrowing the wage gap at the lower end. Notably, as education is associated with a higher probability of wage employment for females, the contribution of education becomes stronger after controlling for selectivity bias. The findings suggest that promoting female education and expanding access to non-agricultural employment are key to reducing the gender wage gap in rural Bangladesh, although unobservable factors continue to perpetuate the sticky floor phenomenon. |
| Keywords: | Education; Decomposition; Household fixed effects; Gender wage gap; Rural Bangladesh; Unconditional quantile regression |
| JEL: | I24 I26 J31 J71 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2025-26 |
| By: | Birthal, Pratap S.; Hazrana, Jaweriah; Roy, Devesh; Satyasai, K. J. S |
| Abstract: | Climate change is one of the biggest challenges to sustainable development of agriculture, and consequently to the livelihood of farming communities, and the governments’ efforts to improve food and nutrition security and reduce poverty, especially in countries more exposed to climate risks and dominated by small-scale producers who often lack finance for investment in risk management. During the past two decades, climate finance for agriculture has attracted considerable attention in policy debates, yet agriculture’s share in the total climate finance has remained minimal. Empirical evidence presented in this paper distinctly highlight the role of finance in building resilience of agriculture. These provide a basis for a change in policy stance to emphasize climate finance in investment and credit planning in agriculture, and the need for innovative approaches to deliver finance that is climate sensitive. Climate risks are predicted to be severe in plausible future climate scenarios; hence, the need for climate finance for agriculture cannot be understated. Current level of climate finance for agriculture is not commensurate with its requirement. Today’s investments in climate actions will shape future trajectory of agricultural growth, and its economic and social outcomes. I hope this paper will be useful for policymakers, financial institutions and other stakeholders to take informed decisions on financing agriculture for risk management. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Risk and Uncertainty, Sustainability |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:icarpp:344992 |
| By: | Giorgio Chiovelli; Stelios Michalopoulus; Elias Papaioannou; Tanner Regan |
| Abstract: | Satellite images of nighttime lights are commonly used to proxy local economic conditions. Despite their popularity, there are concerns about how accurately they capture local development in different settings and scales. We compile an annual series of comparable nighttime lights globally from 1992 to 2023 by applying adjustments that consider key factors affecting accuracy and comparability over time: top coding, blooming, and variations in satellite systems (DMSP and VIIRS). Applied to various low-income settings, the adjusted luminosity series outperforms the unadjusted series as a predictor of local development, particularly over time and at higher spatial resolutions. |
| Keywords: | Night Lights; Economic Development; Measurement; Africa. |
| JEL: | O1 R1 E01 I32 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2025-009 |
| By: | Qiao Wang; Joseph George |
| Abstract: | Monitoring household water use in rapidly urbanizing regions is hampered by costly, time-intensive enumeration methods and surveys. We investigate whether publicly available imagery-satellite tiles, Google Street View (GSV) segmentation-and simple geospatial covariates (nightlight intensity, population density) can be utilized to predict household water consumption in Hubballi-Dharwad, India. We compare four approaches: survey features (benchmark), CNN embeddings (satellite, GSV, combined), and GSV semantic maps with auxiliary data. Under an ordinal classification framework, GSV segmentation plus remote-sensing covariates achieves 0.55 accuracy for water use, approaching survey-based models (0.59 accuracy). Error analysis shows high precision at extremes of the household water consumption distribution, but confusion among middle classes is due to overlapping visual proxies. We also compare and contrast our estimates for household water consumption to that of household subjective income. Our findings demonstrate that open-access imagery, coupled with minimal geospatial data, offers a promising alternative to obtaining reliable household water consumption estimates using surveys in urban analytics. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.26957 |
| By: | Dennis Egger; Killeen Grady; Edward Miguel; Nick Shankar; Michael Walker |
| Abstract: | We estimate the impacts of large-scale unconditional cash transfers on child survival. One-time transfers of USD 1000 were provided to over 10, 500 poor households across 653 randomized villages in Kenya. We collected census data on over 100, 000 births, including on mortality and cause of death, and detailed data on household health behaviours. Unconditional cash transfers (accounting for spillovers) lead to 48% fewer infant deaths before age one and 45% fewer child deaths before age five. Detailed data on cause of death, transfer timing relative to birth, and the location of health facilities indicate that unconditional cash transfers and access to delivery care are complements in generating mortality reductions: the largest gains are estimated in neonatal and maternal causes of death largely preventable by appropriate obstetric care and among households living close to physician-staffed facilities and those who receive the transfer around the time of birth, and treatment leads to a large increase in hospital deliveries (by 45%). The infant and child mortality declines are concentrated among poorer households with below median assets or predicted consumption. The transfers also result in a substantial decline of 51% in female labour supply in the three months before and the three months after a birth, and improved child nutrition. Infant and child mortality largely revert to pre-program levels after cash transfers end. Despite not being the main aim of the original program, we show that unconditional cash transfers in this setting may be a cost-effective way to reduce infant and child deaths. |
| JEL: | I15 O1 O15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2025-10 |
| By: | Abay, Kibrom A.; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Kahsay, Goytom Abraha; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum |
| Abstract: | Trust in local leadership is critical for effective delivery of public goods and services -especially in conflict-affected and post-conflict settings, where local institutions and markets remain weak, and peacebuilding and recovery efforts are crucial. Thus, identifying avenues and instruments for rebuilding trust in local leadership remains important. Building on a recent and large-scale armed conflict in Ethiopia, we study the impact of a randomized community-based cash transfer on trust in local leadership. The randomized cash transfer was introduced after the war in Ethiopia and its implementation involved local community leaders, some of whom may have participated in the conflict. We find that exposure to armed conflict is associated with a significant deterioration in trust in local leaders, while the community-based cash transfer recovers some of the deteriorated trust. We provide suggestive evidence that the impacts of cash transfer are driven not only by those who received the cash transfer but also by non-beneficiary households in communities where the cash transfer is implemented. Our heterogeneity analysis reveals that the treatment effect is largely driven by poor households and households which do not benefit from government safety net programs. These results have important implications for policy design in rebuilding trust in local leadership in post-conflict and fragile settings. |
| Keywords: | armed conflicts; cash transfer; governance; institutions; leaders; Ethiopia; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2025–10–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:177383 |