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on Development |
| By: | Imane Helmy (World Bank); Al Anoud Ehab (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Managing risks and reducing vulnerability to shocks affect the welfare of households and resilience of economies. Using two rounds of Egypt’s Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS), 2018 and 2023, this paper examines different types of shocks experienced by households over the few past years as well as vulnerability to food insecurity. It highlights important factors that contribute to resilience and identifies opportunities for strengthening effective risk management strategies. The findings highlight a remarkable increase in household exposure to shocks, rising from 16 percent in 2018 to 49 percent in 2023. Households who reported exposure to shocks in 2018 and 2023 are primarily from poorer and larger households, indicating a potential chronic vulnerability. Urban households have experienced more shocks compared to rural counterparts in 2023, highlighting the need for strategies that address the specific vulnerabilities of urban households. Higher resilience to shocks and food insecurity was reported by households pertaining to high wealth quintiles and whose heads are more educated or employed in the formal sector. This emphasizes the crucial role of social protection measures and economic opportunities in building resilience. Coping mechanisms primarily included consumption rationing, with a notable decline in reliance on social capital compared to 2018. Around 40 percent of households faced food insecurity in 2023, with those experiencing economic shocks being more susceptible to higher rates of moderate and severe food insecurity. A higher share of female headed households reported severe food insecurity. Expanding access to social insurance programs and ensuring they cover irregular/informal workers can better mitigate the impacts of economic and health-related shocks, ensuring less persistent effect on food insecurity |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1767 |
| By: | Alwis, Don Sanjeewa |
| Abstract: | The institutional approach to development typically classifies colonial institutions as inclusive or extractive. This categorization is based on formal design. This classification often overlooks how rights and protections were distributed within societies, assuming access rather than measuring it. This paper develops a Selective Inclusion framework, arguing that colonial regimes frequently built formally capable institutions while restricting access for indigenous and majority populations. To operationalize this idea, I construct a Partial Access Index (PAI) measured at independence for a sample of 62 former colonies. The index codes access in four domains: political franchise, access to executive constraints, legal uniformity, and educational-economic participation. Descriptive evidence reveals a Settler Colony Paradox: countries commonly treated as benchmarks of inclusive institutions often exhibited substantial exclusion of non-settler populations. Empirically, higher institutional access is associated with lower long-term income inequality. Robustness checks, including jackknife and region-exclusion tests, confirm that this relationship is not driven by outliers. The pattern is non-linear and region-specific. Latin America exhibits high inequality under partial inclusion. Sub-Saharan Africa exhibits high inequality under low access. These findings suggest that formal institutional strength can coexist with restricted access, and that who is included matters as much as what institutions exist. The distinction of institutional form from institutional access clarifies the persistent distributional consequences of colonial rule. |
| Date: | 2026–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:3c4za_v1 |
| By: | Muhammad Usman Anwar Goraya |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between Official Development Assistance (ODA) and conflict in the ten largest aid-receiving African countries between 2009 and 2023. Using Ordinary Least Squares, Principal Component Analysis, and Ridge (L2) regression, the study assesses whether conflict, proxied by political stability, governance indicators, and macroeconomic conditions, systematically influences aid inflows. Results reveal a nuanced relationship. Pooled regressions indicate that aid is positively associated with poverty, inflation, and fragility, while voice and accountability are negatively related to ODA. Fixed-effects estimates instead show positive associations between aid, political stability, and GDP per capita over time, alongside negative correlations with perceived corruption. Ridge regression confirms the robustness of various governance variables under multicollinearity. Overall, donors appear responsive to both humanitarian need and institutional quality, producing an aid-conflict-institutions trilemma: aid is most concentrated where conflict risk and institutional weakness are greatest, yet these same conditions which constrain aid effectiveness. The paper contributes by integrating theory with panel-econometric tools to to explore international development aid allocation. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2601.16992 |
| By: | Maina, Cecilia Chemeli; Debela, Bethelhem Legesse; Qaim, Matin |
| Abstract: | Women play key roles in food systems, yet continue to face persistent disadvantages in terms of low decision-making power and limited access to goods, services, and markets. Discrimination against women is often deeply ingrained in social norms, policies, and institutions. Widely observed gender gaps are not only unfair; they also undermine broader sustainability objectives. Extensive evidence shows that women's empowerment contributes to productivity, efficiency, and broader social welfare gains. We review and synthesize the literature on links between women's empowerment and nutrition, focusing on rural households in Africa and Asia. We analyze advances in the measurement of women's empowerment, discuss strengths and limitations of existing metrics, and summarize the broad empirical evidence showing that women's empowerment is positively associated with dietary quality and nutrition. Further, we develop a conceptual framework, highlighting key mechanisms of the empowerment-nutrition relationship, including women's bargaining power, control over income, and time allocation. Using this framework and examples from different countries, we show that development initiatives, such as promoting agricultural commercialization and women's off-farm employment, can involve tradeoffs, sometimes resulting in undesirable empowerment and/or nutrition outcomes. Such tradeoffs need to be properly understood and addressed through gender-transformative policies. We conclude by discussing policy and research implications. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2026–02–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubzefd:391364 |
| By: | Sambit Bhattacharyya; Chirantan Chatterjee (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, BN1 9SL Falmer, United Kingdom); Stephen Lartey |
| Abstract: | How do global crises affect development aid effectiveness? We explore this question by analyzing the impact of 2008 global financial crisis on development aid effectiveness in Africa using a novel triple-difference design (aid by donor × governance quality × trade exposure) estimated pre and post 2008 with nightlights data across 41 African countries observed over the period 2000 to 2021. We find Chinese aid to be effective in well governed and trade exposed countries following the crisis whereas OECD aid lost its governance dependent advantage. Structural break test confirms 2008 as a turning point for Chinese aid effectiveness. Total aid concentration outperforms aid diversification by 79% relative to pre-crisis patterns in terms of effectiveness. US aid appears to be inequality reducing post 2008. Chinese aid seems effective post 2008 irrespective of its modalities ‘ODA like’ and ‘other official flows’ whereas US aid is effective only under the modality ‘economic’. The results appear to be robust to GDP as an alternative outcome variable and placebo test. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Aid; Economic Development; Africa; China |
| JEL: | F35 O19 O47 O55 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:0126 |
| By: | Steenkamp, Daan; Fourie, Jurgens |
| Abstract: | We show that national total factor productivity estimates mask significant heterogeneity across industries. Our estimates imply that there has been broad-based decline in productivity since the global financial crisis, particularly for mining, manufacturing and construction. While we highlight challenges to measuring productivity in South Africa, we show that our estimates are broadly similar to estimates from other international agencies. Over the long term, productivity is a key determinant of a country's per capita income. South Africa's poor productivity performance since 1990 is therefore very concerning. Our estimates have profound policy implications, highlighting the impact that electricity and logistical constraints, rising regulatory compliance costs, policy uncertainty and municipal mismanagement. |
| Keywords: | productivity, TFP, production functions |
| JEL: | D24 O47 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:335705 |
| By: | Berlinski, Samuel; Cruces, Guillermo; Galiani, Sebastián; Gertler, Paul; Gonzalez, Fabian Enrique |
| Abstract: | We study the long-run effects of a large public expansion of pre-primary education in Argentina. Between 1993 and 1999, the federal government financed the construction of new preschool classrooms targeted to departments with low baseline enrollment and high poverty, creating roughly 186, 000 additional places. We link administrative records on classroom construction to four population censuses and estimate difference-in-differences models that compare treated and untreated cohorts across high- and low-construction departments. An additional preschool seat per child increases post-kindergarten schooling by about 0.5 years, raising the probability of completing secondary school by 11.9 percentage points and of enrolling in post-secondary education by 7.1 percentage points. For women, access to the program also reduces completed fertility: an additional seat lowers the number of live births per woman by 0.18. We find no evidence that selective migration biases these estimates. Our results show little impact on labor-market outcomes at the census date, consistent with beneficiaries still being in school or in the early stages of their careers. A benefit-cost analysis based on the estimated schooling gains, standard Mincer returns, and observed construction and operating costs yields a benefit-cost ratio of about 11 and an internal rate of return of 13%. Our findings show that universal at-scale pre-primary expansions in middle-income countries can generate sizable improvements in human capital and demographic outcomes at relatively low fiscal cost. |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J38 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14483 |
| By: | Pablo Álvarez-Aragón (Development Finance and Public Policies, University of Namur); Jean-Marie Baland (Development Finance and Public Policies, University of Namur); Catherine Guirkinger (Development Finance and Public Policies, University of Namur); Paola Villar (Centre d'Économie de la Sorbonne, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the long-term impact of Catholic missionary nuns on women’s human capital in the Democratic Republic of Congo. By using newly digitized historical data on Christian missions, recent demographic surveys, and administrative data on schools and healthcare facilities, we analyze the lasting effects of the missionaries' presence, focusing on gender-specific outcomes. While both Catholic and Protestant missions influenced educational attainment, the presence of Catholic nuns significantly enhanced these effects, especially for girls. Proximity to Catholic missions is also associated with better health outcomes. Beyond education and health, exposure to missions with nuns delays marriage, reduces polygamy, and increases women’s decision-making power within households. However, the negative effects on female labor force participation likely reflect the enduring influence of the “Christian household” model promoted during the colonial period. Overall, Catholic missionary nuns played a decisive role in shaping women’s outcomes, with effects that remain visible more than a century later. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nam:defipp:2601 |
| By: | Alejandra Martinez |
| Abstract: | I study how firms adjust to temporary disruptions in international trade relationships organized through relational contracts. I exploit an extreme, plausibly exogenous weather shock during the 2010-11 La Ni\~na season that restricted Colombian flower exporters' access to cargo terminals. Using transaction-level data from the Colombian-U.S. flower trade, I show that importers with less-exposed supplier portfolios are less likely to terminate disrupted relationships, instead tolerating shipment delays. In contrast, firms facing greater exposure experience higher partner turnover and are more likely to exit the market, with exit accounting for a substantial share of relationship separations. These findings demonstrate that idiosyncratic shocks to buyer-seller relationships can propagate into persistent changes in firms' trading portfolios. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2601.14150 |
| By: | Marc Witte (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute); Johanna Roth (Sciences Po); Morgan Hardy (New York University Abu Dhabi); Christian Johannes Meyer (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | We present findings from an at-scale randomized trial of a government program providing public employment services in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, with up-to-date vacancy information. Before the program, women with relatively less education searched more narrowly with worse labor market outcomes than the rest of our representative sample of relevant job seekers. These women also have lower direct intervention take-up than the rest of the sample. However, only these women significantly increase applications, receive more offers, shift from household enterprise work to wage employment, and experience higher earnings in response to the intervention. These employment impacts are larger than can be explained by vacancies directly curated through the intervention. Instead, these women adjust search behavior, expectations, and employment aspirations more broadly. Notably, offers come through friends and family networks, their modal baseline search method, underscoring the potential role of social networks in disseminating employment information to the most marginalized job seekers. |
| Keywords: | Public Employment Services, Labor Market Frictions, Marginalized Job Seekers, Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) |
| JEL: | J08 J16 J64 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–07–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250044 |
| By: | Hatem Jemmali (University of Manouba); Rabeh Morrar (An-Najah National University); Fernando Rios-Avila (Levy Economics Institute of Bard College) |
| Abstract: | Over the past two decades, Egypt has undergone substantial economic and political transformations that have directly influenced labor market outcomes, particularly in terms of wages and earnings. In this paper, we analyze the patterns and dynamics of wage inequality in Egypt from 2006 to 2021. Our findings show that real wages exhibit an upward trend over the period 2006-16, followed by a decline after the floating of the national currency. They also experience a phase of stagnant inequality prior to 2016 and an overall decline over the entire period. Using an intertemporal decomposition approach based on a generalization of the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method, we find evidence that the observed changes in wage inequality are mainly driven by changes in returns to demographic and labor market characteristics (wage structure effect). The detailed decomposition of the Gini coefficient reveals that, only for the pre-Arab Spring period, changes in returns to education significantly contribute to the decline of wage inequality in Egypt. This implies that implementing improved redistributive policies primarily focused on elevating educational levels is crucial to sustaining these trends over an extended period. In other words, policies that specifically target educational advancement can play a key role in ensuring the longevity of these positive trends. |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1737 |
| By: | Shrestha, Maheshwor; Okunogbe, Oyebola M.; Kalra, Naira; Fashogbon, Ayodele Emmanuel; Bossuroy, Thomas; Audy, Robin; Ajayi, Kehinde |
| Abstract: | A rigorous randomized controlled trial in Nigeria shows that integrated safety nets produce sustained improvements in nutrition and food security for poor households relative to a basic safety nets program, with effects lasting three years. Stunting rates among young children fall by 18 percent only when all three critical features are present: (i) targeting families during early childhood; (ii) substantial grant on top of a regular safety net support; and (iii) behavior change training. Scaling up these proven interventions is urgent to address Nigeria’s high burden of stunting and food insecurity and unlock future human capital. |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:207679 |
| By: | Pinar Tat (Gebze Technical UniversityAuthor-Name: Halit Yanikkaya; Gebze Technical University) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impacts of trade on conflicts within the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The findings indicate that bilateral trade has no significant impact on regional conflicts in the MENA, but this veils substantial heterogeneity. The multilateral trade of manufacturing and agriculture sectors increases the number of conflicts within the region, possibly due to decreased dependence on bilateral ties. The positive effect of multilateral trade is mainly driven by the oil importer MENA countries. Membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) is associated with a reduction in conflicts. The results vary when considering oil-exporting and oil-importing countries separately, revealing nuances in the relationship between trade and conflicts within the MENA region. |
| Date: | 2024–10–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1745 |
| By: | Joshi, Mukta; Teh, Wen Wen; Vargas, Ariadna; Dadzie, Christabel E.; Datta, Saugato |
| Abstract: | Abstract Cash plus programs, which combine cash transfers with complementary services and interventions, have become an increasingly popular tool for providing livelihood support and poverty alleviation in low- and middle-income countries. While there is robust evidence to indicate that cash programs provide poverty relief in the short term, the impact of cash programs on productive investment behaviors and activities is less understood. This study presents the results of a cluster randomized trial that evaluates the effects of light-touch behavioral interventions to encourage saving and entrepreneurial behaviors for low-income Ghanaians participating in a multi-faceted cash plus program focused on economic inclusion. Participants received business skills training, coaching and mentoring, and a cash grant to support the initiation and expansion of their businesses. The study incorporated a suite of behavioral interventions designed to help recipients set business-related savings goals, create plans for achieving those goals, and follow through on saving towards those goals. In addition, the design included a pamphlet outlining key steps for growing or expanding a business, accompanied by a tracker to help recipients remember these steps and track progress. Drawing from a sample of 3, 109 participants, the study found that behavioral interventions significantly improved goal-setting and plan-making behaviors related to savings and consequently, increased the incidences of saving among study participants. However, the study did not find a statistically significant impact of the behavioral interventions on improving business skills. Using a cluster-randomized trial (N=3, 109), this study evaluated the effects of light-touch behavioral interventions on recipients of a multi-faceted cash plus program for economic inclusion, which included business skills training, coaching and mentoring, and a cash grant to support the initiation and expansion of businesses. Results show that the behavioral interventions, featuring goal-setting and plan-making activities, savings tools, and business practice reminders, improved goal-setting and plan-making behaviors related to savings and consequently, increased the incidence of saving. However, the interventions did not significantly improve business practices. Findings suggest that simple behavioral tools can strengthen savings behaviors and financial resilience among poo r households, complementing cash and training programs, though further research is needed on long-term effects. |
| Date: | 2025–11–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:207029 |