|
on Development |
| By: | Baez, Maria Josefina (University of Florence); Giannelli, Gianna Claudia (University of Florence); Mangiavacchi, Lucia (University of Perugia) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how shifts in local labor markets influence maternal expectations about future support from their children, and how those expectations affect adolescents’ socio-emotional development. Using panel data from the Young Lives study in Peru (Rounds 4 and 5), the analysis exploits exogenous variation in female employment opportunities across departments through a shift-share instrument. Results show that improvements in women’s local labor demand reduce the likelihood that mothers expect emotional or financial support from their children in adulthood. These lower expectations are, in turn, associated with improved socio-emotional development among adolescents, captured through standardized indices of self-esteem, self-efficacy, peer relations, and pride. The findings suggest that economic expansion may relax intergenerational expectations of support, thereby reducing the psychological burdens placed on children. This study contributes to research on gendered labor shocks, parental beliefs, and the socio-emotional consequences of intergenerational dynamics, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, showing how economic change can influence child development through shifts in maternal expectations. |
| Keywords: | shift share, maternal expectations, socio-emotional skills, Peru |
| JEL: | D1 J1 I2 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18049 |
| By: | De la O Campos, Ana Paula; Admasu, Yeshwas; Covarrubias, Katia Alejandra; Davis, Benjamin; Diaz, Ana Maria |
| Abstract: | This working paper is the update of an earlier cross-country study on household income sources using an expanded harmonized dataset. The analysis presented covers a total of 93 surveys representing 41 countries – nearly double that of the previous study – to depict rural and urban households’ livelihood strategies across different levels of economic development. The findings shed light on the relationship between household livelihood activity portfolios and per capita gross domestic product, confirming a picture of multiple livelihood activities across the rural and urban space, at different levels of development. However, we find an emerging divergence between countries from sub-Saharan Africa and those from the rest of the world regarding employment and income generation. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Security and Poverty, Labor and Human Capital, Land Economics/Use |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:faoaes:366848 |
| By: | Gabriel Marcos Arcanjo (Department of Economics, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Brazil); Fernando Salgueiro Perobelli (Department of Economics, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Brazil); Vinicius Vale (Department of Economics, Federal University of Paraná, Brazil); Douglas Silveira (Department of Economics, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Brazil) |
| Abstract: | To understand how different regions withstand increasingly frequent exogenous shocks, we analyze regional resilience in Brazil, motivated by persistent structural inequalities and frequent exposure to such shocks. Using interregional input-output matrices for 2011 and 2019, we adopt an ex ante approach, simulating scenarios that stress the productive structure to evaluate regional responses. These results are integrated with network analysis and machine learning techniques to classify degrees of regional resilience. Resilience is highest in the South and Southeast, particularly São Paulo, and lowest in the North and Northeast. This pattern is associated with the concentration of activities with limited diffusion to less resilient regions, which exhibit growth and specialization in primary activities, along with dependence on services weakly integrated into production chains. Overall, resilience remains largely stable, highlighting structural barriers that hinder transformation and are not easily overcome spontaneously over time. |
| Keywords: | Regional Resilience; Input-Output; Network Analysis; Machine Learning |
| JEL: | C67 O40 C22 R10 R15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nereus:021497 |
| By: | Ercio Mu\~noz; Dario Sansone; Jo\~ao Tampellini |
| Abstract: | Using data from over 500, 000 dual-earner households in Mexico, we provide evidence of discontinuities in the distribution of relative income within households in Latin America. Similar to high-income countries, we observe a sharp drop at the 50% threshold, where the wife earns more than the husband, but the discontinuity is up to five times larger and has increased over time. These patterns are robust to excluding equal earners, self-employed individuals, or couples in the same occupation/industry. Discontinuities persist across subgroups, including couples with or without children, married or unmarried partners, and those with older wives or female household heads. We also find comparable discontinuities in Brazil and Panama, as well as among some same-sex couples. Moreover, women who are primary earners continue to supply more non-market labor than their male partners, although the gap is narrower than in households where the woman is the secondary earner. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.08166 |
| By: | Näslund-Hadley, Emma; Hernández Agramonte, Juan Manuel; Zoido, Pablo |
| Abstract: | In this article, we present the impact evaluation of Irûmi, an educational robot-based intervention aimed at developing second-grade students' computational thinking (CT) skills in Paraguay. Our results indicate that the program had an effect of 0.09 standard deviations on the students' CT skills, focusing on abilities such as abstraction, algorithmic thinking, and evaluation. These findings suggest that with age-appropriate instructional design, very young children could develop CT skills and, that smart devices and electronic toys can contribute to their development at early ages. Our study contributes to the empirical literature because it is applied to a developing country, uses an experimental design, pre-and post-treatment measures, and a large student sample, and explores the programs impact on students and teachers. In addition to the impact on students CT skills, we found that Irûmi had effects on other dimensions for which it may not have been intentionally designed. First, our results suggest that Irûmi raised preferences towards Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) toys and increased gender flexibility toward who can play with them, especially among girls. Second, the program increased children's positive attitudes toward technology. The mechanisms by which the effects of Irûmi occur are several. First, the program increased the probability that the teacher would use educational technology in the classroom, including devices not contemplated by the program. Second, we found that Irûmi developed teachers CT skills, possibly due to the novelty of the curriculum and methodology in the Paraguayan context. |
| JEL: | C93 I20 I24 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14227 |
| By: | Bernardi, Marta; Lindlacher, Valentin |
| Abstract: | For the developing world, instant connectivity was first established through the expansion of second-generation (2G) mobile networks. Leveraging exogenous variation in network disruptions induced by lightning strikes as an instrumental variable, we analyze panel data from 2, 040 regions across 13 developing countries between 1990 and 2015. Our findings reveal economically meaningful increases in employment (approximately 32-43%), driven primarily by a shift from self-employment toward formal wage employment, notably within agriculture, coupled with substantial rises in unpaid labor among women. |
| Keywords: | Mobile Coverage, Structural Transformation, Panel Inference, Technological Development, Micro Interventions, Aggregate Implications |
| JEL: | O33 O12 O14 E24 E27 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tudcep:324641 |
| By: | Elmallakh, Nelly Youssef Louis William; Faures, Diego; Gatti, Roberta V.; Islam, Asif Mohammed |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of negative precipitation shocks (droughts) on labor markets in the Middle East and North Africa region. Using Labor Force Survey data across five countries over approximately 25 years and matched with fifth generation of atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts hourly climate data, the study finds that droughts affect labor market outcomes at both the extensive and intensive margins. A negative precipitation shock is associated with a 1 percentage point increase in unemployment and a 4.4 percent reduction in weekly hours worked for both men and women. The results are driven by urban areas, highlighting that the labor market effects of extreme weather events may extend beyond their impact on the agriculture sector and rural areas. However, extreme weather events do negatively affect a subset of the rural population—young women—by increasing unemployment. The findings provide crucial empirical evidence on the socioeconomic costs of climate variability, underscoring the need for targeted policies that address these impacts in urban settings. |
| Date: | 2025–08–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11191 |
| By: | Tas, Emcet Oktay; Canpolat, Ezgi; Cole, Megan; Setyowati, Abidah Billah; Woodhouse, Jasminah |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a spatial analysis of coal transition vulnerability in Indonesia. It uses a mixed-methods approach that combines quantitative data on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to coal transition, summarized in a Coal Transition Vulnerability Index, with qualitative insights from stakeholder consultations and interviews. The paper explores the socioeconomic implications of dependence on coal and potential shifts in production patterns for communities and workers. It finds that vulnerability to coal transition is geographically concentrated, with provinces like East Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, and South Sumatra exhibiting high susceptibility due to their dependence on coal mining and coal-fired power generation. Case studies and qualitative findings further illustrate the localized nature of vulnerability, and the potential challenges faced by communities due to impending mine closures. The paper underscores significant socioeconomic and local impacts, particularly on employment within the coal value chain; highlights the disproportionate effects on vulnerable groups, including women, youth, indigenous communities, and informal workers; and highlights the need for inclusive and tailored strategies for managing the socioeconomic impacts of coal transition. |
| Date: | 2025–08–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11188 |
| By: | Djeneba Dramé (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UPN - Université Paris Nanterre); Florian Léon (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International, CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how firms in developing countries respond to monetary policy changes, focusing on both their perceptions of credit constraints and their borrowing behavior. Using firm-level data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys (WBES) and a newly constructed database of monetary policy changes, we employ an event study approach to analyze how managers adjust their expectations of credit access in the days following a policy intervention. We complement this with a broader analysis of how annual policy rate changes affect firms' credit applications. Our results show that firms perceive credit access as more restrictive after a policy rate hike, but do not significantly reduce their credit applications. Instead, credit demand increases after a rate cut, highlighting an asymmetric response to monetary policy. We also find substantial heterogeneity, with firms' sensitivity depending not only on their proximity to banks, but also on the degree of liquidity of the banking market and the degree of independence of the central bank. These results provide new insights into the transmission of monetary policy in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | JEL classification: D4 E52 G32 L1 O16 Monetary policy Financial constraints Firms Developing countries |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05172185 |
| By: | Johanna Tiedemann; Olivier Bizimana; Shant Arzoumanian |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the stance of monetary policy in eleven Sub-Saharan African (SSA) emerging and frontier market economies. We estimate neutral real interest rates using a range of methodologies, and find a broadly declining trend in most economies since the Global Financial Crisis, consistent with patterns observed in advanced and major emerging market economies. We document significant heterogeneity in monetary policy stances—measured by the interest rate gap—even during common global shocks. We also examine the consistency between signals from the intended monetary policy stance and broader financial conditions. To this end, we construct financial conditions indices (FCIs) and analyze their relationship with interest rate gaps. We find that this relationship strengthens during periods of highly accommodative or restrictive monetary stances, particularly in economies that have adopted or are transitioning to inflation-targeting frameworks. Moreover, contractionary monetary shocks tighten financial conditions more in these economies than in those operating under other regimes. |
| Keywords: | Neutral Interest Rate; Monetary Policy Stance; Financial Conditions; Monetary Policy Transmission; SSA |
| Date: | 2025–08–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/160 |