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on Development |
| By: | Demirci, Murat (Koc University); Foster, Andrew (Brown University); Kirdar, Murat (Koc University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of the world’s largest humanitarian unconditional cash transfer program targeting refugees—the Emergency Social Safety Net (ESSN) program—on child nutrition and growth outcomes. Using the 2018 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey, which includes a representative sample of Syrian refugees, and employing a regression discontinuity design, we assess the program’s effects on child growth—measured by height-for-age (HAZ), weight-for-age (WAZ), and weight-for-height (WHZ), including their extreme values—and on child-level nutrition, measured across five major food categories. We find that receiving cash transfers increases HAZ by 0.6 to 0.8 standard deviations. Additionally, the transfers reduce the incidence of both underweight and overweight status based on WAZ scores. WHZ scores and the incidence of overweight status based on WHZ also decline. Examining the program's impact on nutrition, we find a significant reduction in children’s energy-dense, nutrient-poor food consumption, consistent with the decrease in overweight incidence. Overall, the ESSN program improves food consumption patterns among refugees, leading to better child growth outcomes. |
| Keywords: | refugees, cash transfers, anthropometrics, nutrition, program evaluation, Turkey |
| JEL: | F22 I14 I15 I38 O15 Q18 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18731 |
| By: | María Florencia Ruiz (Department of Economics, Universidad de San Andrés) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how state-led institutional shocks in low-capacity settings can shape demographic behavior. I analyze two Mexican case studies in which the state sought to consolidate control and reassert authority: the 1992 ejido land-titling reform and President Calderón’s militarized anti-narcotics campaign. I use a difference-in-differences design for the former and a close-elections regression discontinuity for the latter, where narrow PAN victories proxy intensified anti-drug enforcement, to estimate causal effects on conception rates. Conception rates fall significantly in response to both shocks—roughly 1–2% for land titling and about 10% following narrow PAN wins—underscoring that institutional change can influence demographic behavior. |
| Keywords: | Fertility, State building, Institutional shocks, Land reform, Anti-drug enforcement |
| JEL: | J13 O17 O12 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sad:ypaper:21 |
| By: | Alvarez Aragon, Pablo; Guirkinger, Catherine; Platteau, Jean-Philippe |
| Abstract: | In sub-Saharan Africa, women constitute the majority of new Christian membership (including Evangelical and Pentecostal denominations), and this gender gap exceeds that of any other religion. Existing explanations for conversion to these churches emphasize demand for mutual help or informal insurance. We instead show that emancipation is central: these churches provide services that support women’s economic advancement and help them challenge patriarchal norms. Using experimental data from Benin, we find that women randomly offered an economic opportunity become more likely to convert, partly because these churches help counter witchcraft threats, a risk that disproportionately targets economically successful women. To assess external validity, we combine large African datasets with local variation in exposure to positive economic shocks - using exogenous changes in cash crop prices and the implementation of world bank projects with a gender focus. Women are more likely to join new Christian churches following such shocks, especially where witchcraft beliefs are widespread. There, women work more, have fewer children, and exercise greater decision‑making power, while both women and men reject traditional beliefs, rituals, and authorities. |
| Keywords: | Kinship systems |
| JEL: | O12 Z12 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21592 |
| By: | Anne Brockmeyer; François Gerard; Gabriel Ulyssea; Linda Wu; Marcelo Bergolo; Rodrigo Ceni González; Benard Kirui; Andrea Lopez-Luzuriaga; Leonardo Fabio Morales; Andrea Otero-Cortés; Nadine Riedel; Matías Tapia; Tanisa Tawichsri; Verena Wiedemann |
| Abstract: | This paper studies formal employment dynamics using linked employer–employee data from eight countries spanning a wide income range from Kenya to Chile. First, we show that formality rates increase with development, both between and within countries, because more workers enter the formal sector, not because they spend more time in formal jobs. Second, formal labor market fluidity increases with development, as workers hold more formal jobs, spend less time in each job, and less time between jobs. Third, greater fluidity is associated with higher life-cycle wage growth, which is largely accounted for by within- rather than between-firm wage gains. |
| Keywords: | formal employment, labor market fluidity, economic development |
| JEL: | J46 J63 O15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12742 |
| By: | Mertens, Gaetan; Toure, Nouhoum |
| Abstract: | In fragile, conflict-affected, and violent contexts, decentralization is widely promoted to improve service delivery and strengthen the social contract by shifting power closer to citizens. However, empirical evidence on whether these reforms deliver in environments marked by weak state capacity and low institutional trust remains limited. This paper evaluates Mali’s Project for the Deployment of State Resources for the Improvement of Services program, which implemented performance-based conditional grants across 102 communes between 2021 and 2024. Drawing on administrative budget data and georeferenced Afrobarometer survey data, the study assesses the impacts of performance-based conditional grants on local fiscal performance, service delivery, and institutional legitimacy. The results show that a 1 percent increase in performance-based conditional grant allocations is associated with a 1.2 percent increase in investment expenditures and measurable improvements in budget balances. Expenditures were reallocated toward social sectors (education, health, water, and agriculture), consistent with program objectives. A difference-in-differences analysis points to statistically significant increases in citizen satisfaction with public services, particularly health (+2.6 percentage points), water and sanitation (+1.4), and education (+1.0), as well as an 18.4-point rise in trust in municipal councils. Institutional “spillover” effects extended to the national level, with trust in the presidency and parliament increasing by 9.1 and 7.3 points, respectively. A scenario-based cost-effectiven ess analysis points to potentially substantial returns under the stated assumptions. Illustrative estimates suggest that observed trust gains could be associated with USD 57 million to USD 141 million in additional annual tax revenues, equivalent to 1.1 to 2.8 times the program’s total cost, through enhanced voluntary compliance—assuming a transmission of trust into compliance broadly consistent with parameters in the literature. These findings are consistent with the view that well-designed performance-based transfers may improve service outcomes and contribute to rebuilding public trust in fragile, conflict-affected, and violent contexts, with effects that appear to extend beyond the local level. Policy implications include considering institutionalization of the performance-based conditional grants within Mali’s fiscal architecture and the design of a medium-term roadmap for sustainability and possible scale-up. |
| Date: | 2026–06–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11413 |
| By: | Bhattacharya, Prasad (Deakin University); Mukhopadhyay, Abhiroop (Indian Statistical Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of migrant inflows due to forced displacement events on the social capital in the recipient societies. We exploit the setting of Partition of India. Using data from districts in post 1947 India belonging to six states that saw a higher inflow of migrants, relative to outflow, we analyse how the ‘shock’ inflow of migrants affected social capital in the districts sixty years later. The shock is measured as the proportion of “displaced†migrants in Indian districts in 1951 from census data. Survey data conducted in 2007 indicates that social capital is lower in districts that received more Partition migrants. The effect remains strongly robust to spatial robustness checks, contemporary differences in a host of demographic and public goods provision indicators. We find that these effects are mediated through riots, community conflicts and violent crime that start from Partition sixty years ago and continue through to more recent times. We also find that political participation, a proxy for social capital, falls over time in districts which see a relatively larger flow of displaced migrants. Our study contributes to the understanding of the long run implications of large forced displacement events. |
| Keywords: | partition, social capital, forced displacement |
| JEL: | O15 N3 J61 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18685 |
| By: | Arpita Khanna (Asia Competitiveness Institute, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore); Tomoki Fujii (School of Economics, Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | The Covid pandemic dramatically altered patterns of daily life, particularly through widespread declines in mobility due to lockdowns and social distancing measures. While the economic and epidemiological effects of these restrictions have been widely studied, their broader health implications remain underexplored. This paper investigates the relationship between mobility decline during the Covid pandemic and hypertension outcomes in India. Leveraging district-level variation in mobility from Google Community Mobility Reports and health data from the 2019–2021 Indian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), we find that a 1 percentage point reduction in mobility over the 30 days prior to interview is associated with a 0.3 percentage point decrease in the likelihood of having normal blood pressure. The effect is driven by increases in pre-hypertensive and mildly elevated blood pressure, with no significant changes in more severe hypertension. We examine potential mechanisms—healthcare access, stress (proxied by alcohol use), and reduced physical activity—and find limited explanatory power for the former two. These findings suggest that reduced physical mobility likely played a key role in worsening cardiovascular risk profiles. The results underscore the importance of integrating chronic disease considerations into the design of mobility-restricting public health interventions. |
| Date: | 2025–12–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:022911 |
| By: | Yoshihiko Hashiguchi (Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO), Chiba, JAPAN and Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | Despite the potential for land reform to improve children's health through nutritional intake, there is little evidence of its effectiveness. Cuba implemented land reforms in 2012 to increase agricultural production, similar to land reforms in other transitional countries. Leveraging the variation in land reform diffusion in Cuba, we evaluate the impact of the land reform in 2012 on children's physical development. Our results show that prenatal exposure to land reform improved children's birthweight. We also find rural-specific effects of postnatal exposure on childre's weight and height, and that postnatal exposure is a key driver of health improvements among children, particularly those in more vulnerable populations. Thus, despite the restricted land reforms in Cuba compared with reforms in other countries, they have positive impacts on children’s health. Moreover, considering the limited distribution system in Cuba, the land reform demonstrates substantial positive impacts on children's health after birth, with these benefits being more pronounced in rural areas characterized by higher agricultural intensity. |
| Keywords: | Land reform; Fetal origins hypothesis; Early-life health; Usufruct rights; Cuba |
| JEL: | I15 P26 Q15 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2026-21 |
| By: | Amaral, Sofia (World Bank); Chaney, Kim (University at Buffalo); Kaiser, Victoria (Bavarian Ministry of Economic Affairs, Regional Development and Energy); Prakash, Nishith (Northeastern University); Sahay, Abhilasha (The World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Police officers' discretionary handling of gender-based violence (GBV) complaints is a critical barrier to justice in developing countries. We collaborate with the Madhya Pradesh Police in India to conduct a lab-in-the-field experiment with 323 officers, studying the effect of confronting officers with evidence of their biased handling of a fictitious GBV case. We find no average effect, but sharply divergent responses by officer gender. Confronted female officers prioritize the victim's statement by 23 percentage points more than controls, a 27 percent increase relative to the control mean. Male officers exhibit a backlash: they deprioritize the victim's statement, elevate the offender's, and assign more negative stereotypes to GBV victims one week after confrontation. A likely explanation is the stark difference in baseline bias: 72 percent of female officers display only mild bias, while 51 percent of male officers are strongly biased. Because policing is male-dominated, women are more willing to de-bias their case handling while men are not. Interventions targeting officer bias must account for gender-differentiated responses to avoid unintended consequences. |
| Keywords: | prejudice confrontation, gender heterogeneity, gender-based violence, police bias, backlash, stereotype reduction, lab-in-the-field experiment, India |
| JEL: | J16 J45 K42 K14 C93 D91 O12 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18699 |
| By: | Pantaleão, Bruno |
| Abstract: | How do armed groups reshape cities? This article argues that Rio de Janeiro’s milícias—paramilitary organizations, frequently led by current and former security officers, —govern territory through “build-to-hold” urbanization. Rather than simply extracting rents, milícias construct informal housing to expand captive populations that generate recurring income, electoral leverage, and political protection. Combining geospatial data on territorial control with satellite-derived measures of urban development from 2016–2023, I use staggered difference-in-differences estimators to show that milícia entry causes sustained increases in building density and height. These effects are absent in gang-controlled areas and persist in territories transitioning from gangs to milícias, indicating that densification is specific to the milícia governance model. I further show that increased construction does not increase formal housing prices or transaction activity, consistent with a system in which armed actors retain control over housing assets rather than integrating them into formal markets. The findings demonstrate how criminal organizations actively produce urban space in ways that entrench coercive authority and blur the boundary between criminal governance and state power. |
| Date: | 2026–06–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:nvcsr_v1 |
| By: | Elizalde, Aldo; Hidalgo, Eduardo; Kampanelis, Sotiris |
| Abstract: | Can violence erase an ethnic identity? We study this question using the Shining Path insurgency in Peru (1980-1992), which sought to replace competing affiliations with a single class identity and killed roughly 70, 000 people, three-quarters of them Indigenous. Combining individual-level data on self-identification and mother tongue with event-level data on Shining Path violence, we implement a difference-in-differences design that exploits variation in exposure across cohorts at different stages of identity formation, within a matched border sample of pre-conflict comparable districts. Individuals exposed during their formative years (ages 0-19) are substantially less likely to identify as Indigenous or to speak an Indigenous language than cohorts whose identity was already formed when violence arrived. The effect is concentrated mostly in early childhood and particularly pronounced for mother tongue; the margin most directly shaped by parental transmission. Violence against non-Indigenous victims has no comparable effect. The mechanism is intra-group violence: because perpetrators were overwhelmingly co-ethnics from the same villages, visible Indigenous identity offered no protection and imposed costs. Consistent with this, the effect is strongest in Indigenous-homogeneous districts. |
| Keywords: | Ethnic identity, violence, civil conflict, Indigenous populations, Peru |
| JEL: | D74 J15 O15 N36 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:341401 |
| By: | Sofi, Irfan (Head, Department of Econ, Islamic University of Science & Technology, Kashmir, India); Mehrotra, Santosh (Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between employment protection legislation (EPL), measured through pro-worker judicial outcomes (PWCJ), and firm performance in India's formal manufacturing sector. We construct a novel state-level indicator of EP based on 1, 471 high court judgments covering 18 states from 1999 to 2022. Using plant-level panel data from the Annual Survey of Industries, we analyse the impact of EP on labour productivity growth, employment growth, and wage growth. The results indicate a non-linear (inverted Ushaped) relationship. A 1% increase in PWCJ is associated with a 3% rise in labour productivity, 2.59% increase in employment, and 2.95% increase in wages. However, beyond a threshold, further increases in PWCJ negatively affect all three outcomes. The results are robust to alternative specifications and controls. Our findings highlight the importance of balancing job security with flexibility to foster industrial performance. The study contributes new empirical insights to the debate on labour laws and firm outcomes in India. |
| Keywords: | employment protection, labour disputes, court judgements, productivity, employment, wages, India |
| JEL: | K31 L51 L60 D24 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18687 |
| By: | Zucchini, Emanuele (Food and Agriculture Organisation); Sadania, Clémentine (rowsquared); Steiner, Susan (rowsquared); Rossi, Alessandro (International Fund for Agricultural Development); Mabiso, Athur (International Fund for Agricultural Development); Toguem, Robinson (International Fund for Agricultural Development); Mastroeni, Andrea (University of Rome Tor Vergata) |
| Abstract: | Youth employment remains a critical issue in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study examines the impact of two large-scale governmental programmes in Cameroon and Madagascar that aim to promote self-employment in agriculture. Youth participated in vocational training and received technical support, inputs and mentoring to engage in crop, livestock or non-farming agricultural activities. We employ a quasi-experimental design to estimate the impact on the income of youth-led activities, and we address the limitations associated with such designs by carefully constructing a counterfactual. Our findings indicate that these integrated training and livelihoods programmes significantly enhance income from the targeted activities. We highlight the importance of providing regular support for participants during and after programme implementation. |
| Keywords: | integrated training and livelihood programmes, youth employment, agriculture, impact evaluation, Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | D04 J43 O12 O55 Q12 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18713 |
| By: | Nicolini, Marcella (University of Pavia); Sabatini, Fabio (Sapienza University of Rome) |
| Abstract: | On 28 January 2025 the second Trump administration issued a blanket stop-work order on the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), terminating the largest national bilateral aid programme worldwide. We use this natural experiment to estimate the impact of the aid cut on two outcomes in Africa: local economic activity, measured through nighttime light radiance around USAID project sites; and acute food insecurity, measured through the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) at the subnational level. First, the cessation of USAID activities produced a sharp and significant decline in nighttime light radiance within 500 m to 10 km of project sites, attenuating monotonically and undetectable at 25 km. Second, areas more exposed to USAID humanitarian assistance saw relative increases in population in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse and Phase 4 (Emergency), with effects building over the first post-shock year, amplified in higher-vulnerability regions and approximately fourteen times larger in less democratic countries. Third, both effects are driven by humanitarian-aid cuts; the nightlight effect is also driven by productive-sector cuts. |
| Keywords: | foreign aid, USAID, natural experiment, nighttime lights, food security, IPC, difference-in-differences, Africa |
| JEL: | F35 O12 O19 Q18 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18698 |
| By: | Egyir, John |
| Abstract: | Literacy and numeracy unarguably are at the heart of human and economic development and, as a result, have received widespread attention in recent decades. Yet, there are still issues related to the effective strategies of creating such basic skills. In this paper, I show how a free compulsory universal basic education (FCUBE) policy in Ghana helped improve skills attainment. I employ a difference-in-differences strategy to assess the long-term causal impact of FCUBE using the Ghana Living Standard Survey 2012-2017. Overall, I find that FCUBE increased literacy and numeracy by 4.6 and 3.0 p.p respectively, but had a larger effect for urban and less disadvantaged students, thereby exacerbating inequality in skills attainment. Additionally, my results show that only the lower secondary education, and not primary education, was sufficient to guarantee skills attainment. |
| Keywords: | Literacy, numeracy, human capital accumulation, education policy, Ghana |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I28 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:341307 |