|
on Africa |
| By: | Carike Claassen; Elsabé Loots; Henri Bezuidenhout |
| Abstract: | The eyes of the world have, in recent years, been steadfastly focused on China’s economic progress. As China has in recent years emerged as a major player on the world economic stage, its growing relations with other developing regions received much attention. Of particular note is the way in which Sino-African relations have increased since 2000. This paper aims to put Chinese FDI in Africa into perspective and provide some answers on the nature and possible impact of these flows to the continent. The research discloses that China’s outward FDI to Africa is concentrated in diversified, medium growth economic performers, with Southern Africa being the most popular regions for Chinese outward FDI. A literature survey on Chinese investment deals concluded in Africa demonstrates a definite Chinese interest in mining, oil and infrastructure in Africa. The empirical analysis of Chinese FDI in Africa reveals that agricultural land, market size and oil are important determinants of Chinese FDI. Though agricultural land and oil conform to the general notion of resource-driven Chinese FDI in Africa, the fact that market size is important indicates that Chinese investment is not solely resource-driven. As regards the possibility that Chinese FDI could positively contribute towards economic growth in Africa, causality tests conclude that the relationship between African GDP and Chinese FDI is bi-directional, while uni-directional relationships were established between Chinese FDI and African infrastructure and corruption, respectively. |
| JEL: | F21 O16 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:261&r=afr |
| By: | Sue Bowden; Paul Mosley (Department of Economics, The University of Sheffield) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the historical roots of poverty, with particular reference to the experience of Africa during the twentieth century. Like the recent studies by Acemoglu et al (2001, etc) we find that institutional inheritance is an important influence on current underdevelopment; but in addition, we argue that the influence of policies on institutions is highly significant, and that in Africa at least, a high representation of European settlers in land ownership and policy-making was a source of weakness, and not of strength. We argue this thesis, using mortality rates as a proxy for poverty levels, with reference to two settler colonies – Zimbabwe and Kenya – and two peasant export colonies – Uganda and Ghana. Our findings suggest that in Africa, settler-type political systems tended to produce highly unequal income distributions and, as a consequence, patterns of public expenditure and investment in human and infrastructural capital which were strongly biased against smallholder agriculture and thence against poverty reduction, whereas peasant-export type political systems produced more equal income distributions whose policy structures and, consequently, production functions were less biased against the poor. As a consequence, liberalisation during the 1980s and 90s produced asymmetric results, with poverty falling sharply in the ‘peasant export’ and rising in settler economies. These contrasts in the evolution of poverty in the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries, we argue, can only be understood by reference to differences between the settler and peasant export economies whose roots lie in political decisions taken a hundred years previously. |
| Keywords: | Africa, economic history, settler economies, peasant export economies |
| JEL: | O10 N0 |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2012003&r=afr |
| By: | Johan Fourie |
| Abstract: | The stylized view of the Dutch Cape Colony (1652-1795) is of a poor, subsistence economy, with little progress in the first 143 years of Dutch rule. New evidence from probate inventory and auction roll records show that previous estimates about wealth at the Cape are inaccurate. In contrast to earlier historical accounts, the inventories reveal evidence of an affluent, market-integrated settler society, comparable to the most prosperous regions in eighteenth century England and Holland. |
| Keywords: | living standards, household wealth, inventories, South Africa, Dutch |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:268&r=afr |
| By: | Francis M. Kemegue; Emmanuel Owusu-Sekyere; Reneé van Eyden |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the factors that drive and constrain remittance inflows into SubSaharan Africa (SSA) using annual data for 35 SSA countries from 1980 to 2008, generalised method of moments by Arellano and Bover (1995) and LSDV with Driscoll and Kraay (1998) corrected standard errors. We find that when cross-sectional dependence of the error term and individual effects are controlled for, host country economic conditions override home country income in driving remittances to SSA The quality of financial service delivery and investment opportunities in the home country and exchange rate considerations are also significant to remittance inflows to SSA. This is more consistent with self interest motives for remittance inflows than altruism. However there are country level differences. |
| Keywords: | migration, remittances, Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | F22 F24 O55 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:262&r=afr |
| By: | Adél Bosch; Franz Ruch |
| Abstract: | This paper applies a Markov switching model to the South African economy to provide an alternative classification of the business cycle. Principal components analysis (PCA) is applied to 114 of the 186 variables used in the dating of the business cycle by the South African Reserve Bank. PCA establishes the co-movement in the dataset to calculate the reference turning points over the period 1982 to 2009. The large dataset broadens the information set available to date the turning points. The number of factors are chosen using a modified Bai and Ng (2002) method. The Markov switching model is also applied to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as this is a commonly used variable to date the business cycle in the literature and provides a benchmark to the factor model. Our results indicate that the factor model accurately dates the South African business cycle and compares favourably to the SARB dating. |
| Keywords: | Markov switching model, business cycles |
| JEL: | E32 C10 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:267&r=afr |
| By: | Resnick, Danielle; Tarp, Finn; Thurlow, James |
| Abstract: | The concept of â..green growthâ.. implies that a wide range of developmental objectives, such as job creation, economic prosperity and poverty alleviation, can be easily reconciled with environmental sustainability. This study, however, argues that rather than being win-win, green growth is similar to most types of policy reforms that advocate the acceptance of short-term adjustment costs in the expectation of long-term gains. In particular, green growth policies often encourage developing countries to redesign their national strategies in ways that might be inconsistent with natural comparative advantages and past investments. In turn, there are often sizeable anti-reform coalitions whose interests may conflict with a green growth agenda. We illustrate this argument using case studies of Malawi, Mozambique, and South Africa, which are engaged in development strategies that involve inorganic fertilizers, biofuels production, and coal-based energy, respectively. Each of these countries is pursuing an environmentally suboptimal strategy but nonetheless addressing critical development needs, including food security, fuel, and electricity. We show that adopting a green growth approach would not only be economically costly but also generate substantial domestic resistance, especially amongst the poor. |
| Keywords: | development policy, green growth, political economy, Southern Africa |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2012-11&r=afr |
| By: | Gunther Bensch; Jörg Peters |
| Abstract: | With 2.7 billion people relying on woodfuels for cooking in developing countries, the dissemination of improved cooking stoves (ICS) is frequently considered an effective instrument to combat deforestation particularly in arid countries. This paper evaluates the impacts of an ICS dissemination project in urban Senegal on charcoal consumption using data collected among 624 households. The virtue of our data is that it allows for rigorously estimating charcoal savings by accounting for both household characteristics and meal-specific cooking patterns. We find average savings of 25 percent per dish. In total, the intervention reduces the Senegalese charcoal consumption by around 1 percent. |
| Keywords: | Impact evaluation; energy access; cooking fuels; deforestation; Africa |
| JEL: | O13 O22 Q41 Q56 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rwi:repape:0306&r=afr |
| By: | Giovanni Andrea Cornia (Università degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche); Laura Deotti; Maria Sassi (Universita' degli Studi di Pavia) |
| Abstract: | Recently, considerable attention has rightly been paid to the nutritional impact of the sharp hikes in international food prices which took place in 2007-8 and, again, in 2010-11. While sacrosanct, this growing focus has somewhat obscured the effect of other factors which do affect malnutrition in the Sub-Saharan Africa context, i.e. the long term impact of agricultural policies, huge and persistent seasonal variation in domestic food prices, and the impact of famines which still regularly stalk the continent. This paper focuses on the relative weight of these factors in explaining child malnutrition (proxied by the number of child admissions to feeding centers) in Malawi and Niger, two prototypical countries in the region. The analysis shows that the drivers of domestic food staple prices and of the ensuing child malnutrition have to be found not only – or not primarily – in the changes of international food prices but mainly in the impact of agricultural policies on food production, the persistence of a strong food price seasonality, and recurrent and often poorly attended famines. Indeed, even during years of declines in international food prices, these factors often exert a huge upward pressures on domestic food prices and child malnutrition. |
| Keywords: | Food prices, Famines, Seasonality, Food Policy, Child malnutrition, Niger, Malawi |
| JEL: | I38 Q13 Q18 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2012_04.rdf&r=afr |
| By: | Paul Mosley (Department of Economics, The University of Sheffield); Blessing Chiripanhura |
| Abstract: | We seek to understand both the incidence and the impact of the African political business cycle in the light of a literature which has argued that, with major extensions of democracy since the 1990s, the cycle has both become more intense and has made African political systems more fragile. With the help of country-case studies, we argue, first, that the African political business cycle is not homogeneous, and is rarely encountered in so-called ‘dominant-party systems’ where a pre-election stimulus confers little political advantage. Secondly, we show that, in those countries where a political cycle does occur, it does not necessarily cause institutional damage. Whether it does or not depends not so much on whether there is an electoral cycle as on whether this calms or exacerbates fears of an unjust allocation of resources. In other words, the composition of the pre-election stimulus, in terms of its allocation between different categories of voter, is as important as its size. |
| Keywords: | business cycles, public expenditure, politics, Africa |
| JEL: | O10 H50 |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2012002&r=afr |
| By: | Fischer, Elisabeth; Qaim, Matin |
| Abstract: | With the commercialization of agriculture, women are increasingly disadvantaged because of persistent gender-disparities in access to productive resources. Farmer collective action that intends to improve smallholder access to markets and technology could potentially accelerate this trend. Here, we use survey data of small-scale banana producers in Kenya to investigate the gender implications of recently established farmer groups. Traditionally, banana has been a women’s crop in Kenya. Our results confirm that the groups contribute to increasing male control over banana. While male control over banana revenues does not affect household food security, it has a negative marginal effect on dietary quality. We demonstrate that the negative gender implications of farmer groups can be reduced or avoided when women are group members themselves. In the poorest income segments, group membership even seems to have a positive effect on female-controlled income share. Some policy implications towards gender mainstreaming of farmer collective action are discussed. |
| Keywords: | gender, collective action, market access, agricultural technology, household food security and nutrition, Kenya, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Development, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, D71, J16, O12, O13, O31, Q13, |
| Date: | 2012–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gagfdp:121229&r=afr |
| By: | Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Manoel Bittencourt (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an empirical analysis of the role of house prices in determining the dynamic behaviour of consumption in South Africa using a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) approach to provincial level panel data covering the period of 1996 to 2010. With the shocks being identified using the standard recursive identification scheme, we find that the response of consumption to house prices shock is positive, but short-lived. In addition, we find that a positive shock to house price growth has a positive and significant effect on consumption, while the negative impact of an anticipated house price decrease causes an insignificant reduction in consumption. This suggests that house prices exhibit an asymmetric effect on consumption, with the positive effect following an increase in house prices being dominant in magnitude in comparison to a decline in consumption resulting from a negative shock to house prices. |
| Keywords: | House prices, consumption, panel vector autoregressions |
| JEL: | C33 E21 E31 R31 |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201211&r=afr |
| By: | Packel, Laura; Dow, William H.; de Walque, Damien; Isdahl, Zachary; Majura, Albert |
| Abstract: | Information, education, communication and interventions based on behavioral-change communication have had success in increasing the awareness of HIV. But these strategies alone have been less successful in changing risky sexual behavior. This paper addresses this issue by exploring the link between action and the intention to change behaviors. In Africa, uncertainty in the lives of those at risk for HIV may affect how intentions are formed. Characterize this uncertainty by understanding the reasons for discrepancies between intentions and actions may help improve the design of HIV-prevention interventions. Based on an incentives-based HIV prevention trial in Tanzania, the longitudinal dataset in this paper allows the exploration of intended strategies for changing sexual behaviors and their results. The authors find that gender, intervention groups and new positive diagnoses of sexually transmitted infections can significantly predict the link between intent and action. The paper examines potential mediators of these relationships. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,HIV AIDS,Adolescent Health,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Gender and Health |
| Date: | 2012–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5997&r=afr |
| By: | Alexander Behar |
| Abstract: | The withdrawal of the Maize Board in 1996 meant that farmers could no longer rely on its pre-planting price or “voorskot†for price discovery and price risk management. Some have claimed (UNCTAD, 2007) that the South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX) can provide these functions. We test this claim and analyse the implications of it. To do so, we build on an acreage response model developed earlier by Chavas and Holt (1990) by allowing for a futures market as well as accounting for farmer heterogeneity and the relative impact of price risk and yield risk. We first establish farmers’ responsiveness to risk by determining their risk aversion and, more specifically, whether they exhibit decreasing aggregate risk aversion (DARA). We find that farmers are risk averse and display positive wealth effects, which may be due to DARA. We can say little about how farmers have reacted to the price discovery function of expected prices both before and after the withdrawal of the Maize Board. However, we can conclude that farmers have responded less to price risk post-1996, even though prices were more volatile during this period. This supports UNCTAD’s (2007) claim. Combined with the finding of positive wealth effects the policy implication is that an improvement in the financial position of farmers as well as their access to futures markets can help reduce the impact and disutility of risk and, hence, improve their welfare without the need for regulation. |
| JEL: | Q11 Q13 Q18 C33 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:263&r=afr |
| By: | Jedwab, Remi; Moradi, Alexander |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of colonial investments in modern transportation in- frastructure on agriculture and development in Ghana. Two railway lines were built between 1901 and 1923 to connect the coast to mining areas and the large hinterland city of Kumasi. This unintendedly opened vast expanses of tropical forest to cocoa cultivation, allowing Ghana to become the world's largest producer. Using data at a very fine spatial level, we find a strong effect of railroad connectivity on cocoa production in 1927, generating rents in the order of 4.5% of GDP. We show that the economic boom in cocoa-producing areas was associated with demographic growth and urbanization. We find no effect for lines that were not built yet, and lines that were planned but never built. Lastly, railway construction had a persistent impact: railway districts are more developed today despite a complete displacement of rail by other means of transport |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ner:lselon:http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/42263/&r=afr |
| By: | Rene TAPSOBA (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International); Jean-Louis COMBES (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International); Nasser ARY TANIMOUNE (Université Ottawa) |
| Abstract: | This article examines the influence of Policy Mix coherence in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The paper innovates in two ways. First, through an interaction between the monetary conditions index and the primary structural fiscal balance, we highlight coherence-type complementarities between monetary policy and fiscal policy with regard to their effects on economic activity. Second, we show that the influence of the coherence of policy mix on the effect of monetary policy is different according to the stance of the economy within the four possible regimes of policy mix, mostly in the WAEMU subsample, where integration is deeper than in the non-WAEMU countries, thanks to the common currency (the Franc CFA) they share. The analysis is based upon a panel dataset from 1990 to 2006 and remains robust to alternative specifications used to calculate the monetary conditions index. Our results contribute to the debate regarding the prospect of an ECOWAS-wide common currency. Indeed, given the heterogeneity in the economic structure of its members States, more policy mix coherence seems necessary to avoid unexpected impacts of monetary policy on economic activity. |
| Keywords: | Policy Mix, Structural Fiscal Balance, Monetary Conditions Index, Economic Community of West African States. |
| JEL: | O55 E63 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1340&r=afr |
| By: | Muritala, Taiwo; Taiwo, Abayomi |
| Abstract: | This study attempts to empirically examine the trends as well as effects of government spending on the growth rates of real GDP in Nigeria over the last decades (1970-2008) using econometrics model with Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique. The paper test for presence of stationary between the variables using Durbin Watson unit root test. The result reveals absence of serial correlation and that all variables incorporated in the model were non-stationary at their levels. In an attempt to establish long-run relationship between public expenditure and economic growth, the result reveals that the variables are co integrated at 5% and 10% critical level. The findings show that there that there is a positive relationship between real GDP as against the recurrent and capital expenditure. It could therefore be recommended that government should promote efficiency in the allocation of development resources through emphasis on private sector participation and privatization\commercialization. |
| Keywords: | Current expenditure; capital expenditure; macroeconomics; economic development |
| JEL: | E62 B22 O16 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:37293&r=afr |
| By: | Gharad Bryan (London School of Economics); Dean Karlan (Economic Growth Center, Yale University); Jonathan Zinman (Dartmouth College) |
| Abstract: | We examine a randomized trial that allows separate identification of peer screening and enforcement of credit contracts. A South African microlender offered half its clients a bonus for referring a friend who repaid a loan. For the remaining clients, the bonus was conditional on loan approval. After approval, the repayment incentive was removed from half the referrers in the first group and added for half those in the second. We find large enforcement effects, a $12 (100 Rand) incentive reduced default by 10 percentage points from a base of 20%. In contrast, we find no evidence of screening. |
| Keywords: | Information asymmetries; credit market failures; peer networks; social capital; social networks |
| JEL: | C93 D12 D14 D82 O12 O16 |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egc:wpaper:1009&r=afr |
| By: | Bruno Arpino; Elisabetta De Cao; Franco Peracchi |
| Abstract: | Good estimates of HIV prevalence are important for policy makers in order to plan control programs and interventions. Although population-based surveys are now considered the "gold standard" to monitor the HIV epidemic, they are usually plagued by problems of nonignorable nonresponse. This paper uses the partial identification approach to assess the uncertainty caused by missing HIV status. We show how to exploit the availability of panel data and the absorbing nature of HIV infection to narrow the worst-case bounds without imposing assumptions on the missing-data mechanism. Applied to longitudinal data from rural Malawi, the Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project (MDICP), our approach results in a reduction of the width of the worst-case bounds by about 18.2 percentage points in 2004, 13.2 percentage points in 2006, and 2.4 percentage points in 2008. We also use plausible instrumental variable and monotone instrumental variable restrictions to further narrow the bounds. |
| Keywords: | partial identification; nonignorable nonresponse; panel data; HIV prevalence; Malawi Diffusion and Ideational change Project data |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:don:donwpa:048&r=afr |
| By: | Nelly Rakoto-Tiana (UMR DIAL Université Paris XIII) |
| Abstract: | (english) Much empirical research found that fostered children are less likely than others to attend school, which suggests that fostering may be disadvantaged human capital investment. This paper tries to analyze the impact of child fostering on school enrollment in rural Madagascar. We examine firstly if schooling is a principal reason of household’s decision to foster a child. Indeed, biological parents may decide to send their children to another household to be educated, but host household may have another motivation by accepting to receive them. Results suggest that schooling is not a determinant of fostering-in or fostering-out of households. Furthermore, household demographics are a strong determinant of receiving a child for host household. However, using a panel data and controlling the endogeneity problems, results suggest that fostering improves the enrollment of young children if they are blood-related to the head of the fostering-in household but has a negative impact if they are not blood-related to him. _________________________________ (français) Dans la plupart des travaux empiriques existants, les enfants confiés apparaissent moins éduqués en moyenne, suggérant par-là que le confiage est néfaste à l'investissement de l'éducation des enfants. Cet article s’inscrit dans cette voie de recherche et tente d’analyser l’effet du confiage sur le niveau d'éducation des enfants en milieu rural à Madagascar. Nous cherchons tout d’abord à identifier si la scolarisation est une des principales raisons du confiage auprès des ménages. En effet, les parents biologiques peuvent certes décider de confier leurs enfants à un autre ménage pour accroître leur chance d’intégrer ou de poursuivre l’école, mais les familles d’accueil peuvent avoir une autre logique. Les résultats économétriques montrent que la scolarisation n’est pas déterminante des décisions de confiage auprès des ménages. La composition démographique du ménage est le seul facteur déterminant des décisions de la famille d’accueil. En mobilisant des données longitudinales et en contrôlant les problèmes d’endogénéité, le confiage a cependant un impact positif et significatif sur la scolarisation des jeunes enfants apparentés au chef de ménage, et un impact négatif sur celle des enfants non apparentés. |
| Keywords: | Child fostering, schooling, confiage des enfants, scolarisation |
| JEL: | J12 I20 D10 |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt201201&r=afr |
| By: | Diego A. Comin |
| Abstract: | Tourism is a tradable service activity that could allow some African countries to generate significant growth. Tanzania, given its unique natural assets, is an ideal candidate. However, despite being so richly endowed in touristic resources, Tanzania receives very few tourists and revenues from tourism. To explore the determinants of this performance, I conduct an international survey for upscale hotel managers to measure supply-side constraints on the operation of hotels. The survey reveals that hotels in the safari area in Tanzania are more expensive than comparable hotels, and that this difference in price cannot be accounted for by differences in supply constraints. Further, using cross-country panel data, I show that upscale hotel prices account for a significant fraction of cross-country differences in tourists. |
| JEL: | L1 L89 |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17902&r=afr |
| By: | Sarah Drost (Maastricht School of Management); Jeroen van Wijk (Maastricht School of Management); Sietze Vellema (Wageningen University) |
| Abstract: | This case study found out how a public-private partnership in Burkina Faso helped female shea nut producers to link up with the cosmetic industry. Empirical data collected from October-December 2011 revealed that the shea value chain partnership between a international shea processing company, a development organisation, and a local service provider, enabled the connection between the dynamics of the shea market in Burkina Faso, wherein the demand for shea kernels by international and local buyers affects price setting mechanisms, and the logic of locally embedded organisations, wherein local practices of managing information and financial flows and leadership affect the commitment to collaboration. But could a bilateral agreement between a buying company and producer organisation not have lead to the same result? In this case, the likely answer is no. The case study suggests that the added value of the shea value chain partnership lies beyond the technicalities and practicalities of a collaboration protocol between a private buyer and female producer organisations, and comes down to the way in which the protocol stimulates joint navigation by the company and producer organisations. The research found that the ‘hands-on approach’ of an ‘institutional entrepreneur’, the service provider in the partnership, played an important role in the processes of joint navigation under whimsical market conditions and stubborn local practices. |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msm:wpaper:2012/03&r=afr |
| By: | Jessica Schicks |
| Abstract: | This paper measures the over-indebtedness of microborrowers in Ghana. It defines over-indebtedness from a customer-protection perspective, considering borrowers over-indebted if they continuously struggle with repayment and experience unacceptable sacrifices related to their debt. We find that 30% of borrowers in our urban African population of microborrowers are over-indebted. The paper provides a detailed analysis of the sacrifices borrowers experience. In a second step, it tests the risk-management indicators of debt problems as predictors of the customer-protection measurement of over-indebtedness. Over-indebtedness is strongly related to delinquency and to the debt-to-income ratio but not to total debt amounts or to multiple borrowing. We construct a model that correctly predicts 72.6% of cases. However, even the best indicators for over-indebtedness identify only a small portion of cases of over-indebtedness. To protect customers from unacceptable struggles, the industry needs to measure customer experiences directly. Sound risk management is not enough to protect customers against over-indebtedness. |
| Keywords: | Microfinance; Microcredit; Over-Indebtedness; Debt; Customer Protection; Sacrifices |
| JEL: | O16 O50 G21 |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/112507&r=afr |
| By: | Kargbo, Philip Michael |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of foreign aid on economic growth in Sierra Leone, a country where an empirical econometric study on aid effectiveness is yet to exist. Using a triangulation of approaches involving the ARDL bounds test approach and the Johansen maximum likelihood approach to cointegration for the period 1970-2007, we find that foreign aid has a significant contribution in promoting economic growth in the country. This finding is found to be robust across approaches and specifications. Whilst aid may have been associated with improvement in economic growth in the country, its impact during the period of war is found to be either weak or non-existent. Further, aid during the pre-war period is found to be marginally more effective than aid during the post-war period. The latter results suggest that the impact of aid may change with time. |
| Keywords: | growth, foreign aid, cointegration, Sierra Leone, ARDL, post-war |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2012-07&r=afr |
| By: | PENARD Thierry; POUSSING Nicolas; ZOMO YEBE Gabriel; NSI ELLA Philémon |
| Abstract: | Dans les pays développés, la téléphonie mobile et l’Internet ont suivi des trajectoires A l’inverse, le continent africain se caractérise par des processus de diffusion asynchrones, la pénétration de la téléphonie mobile (41% fin 2010) étant bien supérieure à celle de l’Internet (9,7%). Partant de ce constat d’une fracture numérique duale en Afrique (plus forte sur l’Internet que sur la téléphonie mobile), l’objectif de cet article est de comparer les déterminants de l’usage d’Internet et de la téléphonie mobile. Pour cela, nous utilisons une enquête individuelle réalisée au Gabon. Nos résultats économétriques montrent que les freins à l’utilisation d’Internet et de la téléphonie mobile sont assez différents. Les deux principaux facteurs expliquant l’usage d’Internet sont le niveau d’éducation et les compétences informatiques. L’entourage ou le réseau social joue aussi un rôle significatif dans l’adoption d’Internet. Du côté de la téléphonie mobile, les principaux freins sont de nature économique. Enfin, l’âge joue en sens opposé sur l’usage de la téléphonie mobile et d’Internet. Les différences constatées dans les profils d’adoption d’Internet et de la téléphonie mobile devraient inciter les gouvernements des pays africains à développer des politiques numériques plus centrées sur la téléphonie mobile afin d’offrir des services et applications innovants (en matière de santé ou d’éducation par exemple) accessibles au plus grand nombre. |
| Keywords: | Usage d'Internet; Usage de la téléphonie mobile; Diffusion des TIC; Fracture numérique; Afrique |
| JEL: | L50 L90 O14 O33 O57 |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irs:cepswp:2012-15&r=afr |
| By: | Demombynes, Gabriel; Thegeya, Aaron |
| Abstract: | The mobile revolution has transformed the lives of Kenyans, providing not just communications but also basic financial access in the form of phone-based money transfer and storage, led by the M-PESA system introduced in 2007. Currently, 93 percent of Kenyans are mobile phone users and 73 percent are mobile money customers. Additionally, 23 percent use mobile money at least once a day. New potential for mobile money has come with the rise of interest-earning bank-integrated mobile savings systems, beginning with the launch of the M-KESHO system in March 2010. The authors examine the mobile savings phenomenon, using data collected in a special survey in late 2010. They show that the usage of bank-integrated mobile savings systems like M-KESHO remains limited and largely restricted to better-off Kenyans. However, what the authors term"basic mobile savings"-- the use of simple mobile money systems as a repository for funds -- is widespread, including among those who are otherwise unlikely to have any savings. Holding other characteristics constant, those who are registered for M-PESA are 32 percent more likely to report having some savings. |
| Keywords: | Banks&Banking Reform,Emerging Markets,E-Business,Economic Theory&Research,E-Finance and E-Security |
| Date: | 2012–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5988&r=afr |
| By: | Manoel Bittencourt (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Chance Mwabutwa (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Nicola Viegi (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of the study is to examine whether financial reforms implemented in the 1980s and 1990s altered the pattern of aggregate consumption behaviour in Malawi. More specifically, the study questions whether financial reforms affected consumption behaviour by reducing the excess sensitivity of changes in consumption to changes in current income using the Permanent income hypothesis framework. If it happens that excess sensitivity does not reduce, the paper explores further whether the failure is due to liquidity constraints or myopia. This study is unique from the rest in the sense that new constructed time series of financial reform indices are used in the estimation of the consumption function. The study finds that PIH of aggregate consumption behaviour does not exist in Malawi. Most of the consumers follow the “rule-of-thumb” of consuming their current income partly due to liquidity constraints. Although, we demonstrate that the effects of financial reforms on consumption behaviour are due to both liquidity constraints and myopic, the increase in consumption in Malawi can be explained along other factors than financial liberalisation. The excess sensitivities obtained are larger than what has been obtained in developed countries as well as other less developed countries. Liberalisation was implemented on the background of weak institutions and unstable macroeconomic environment. |
| Keywords: | Financial Liberalisation, Permanent Income Hypothesis, Linear Spline Function, Principal Component Analysis, Rule-of-Thumb |
| JEL: | C49 D12 D91 E21 E44 |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201210&r=afr |