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on Africa |
| By: | Benin, Samuel; Randriamamonjy, Josee |
| Abstract: | "Monitoring rural household income is important for governments, donors, nongovernmental organizations, researchers, and others involved with development strategies, because increasing rural household income is a primary objective for achieving many development goals, including reducing poverty, hunger, and food and nutrition insecurity. However, accurate assessment of rural household income is time consuming and costly. Using an expenditure-based income measure, data on actual household expenditures per capita obtained from various national surveys for 28 Sub-Saharan African countries, this study used proxy indicators to estimate regression models and then predict and analyze changes in household income per capita between 1985 and 2006. Over the 20-year period, the study predicted annual average real household monthly income per capita at $78 in 1993 international dollars. South Africa was ahead of the group of countries at $225, followed by Côte d'Ivoire and Lesotho at $117 and $91, respectively. Predictions for Nigeria and Zambia were the worst at $28 and $39, respectively. Looking at changes in income over time, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Uganda, Senegal, Mauritania, and Ghana (in declining order) experienced consistent positive growth. In contrast, Zambia, Kenya, and Lesotho showed declining trends, averaging –2.7 percent, –2.0 percent, and –1.3 percent per year, respectively, over the 20-year period. The latter results were not surprising given the low and sometimes negative growth rates in real GDP per capita and real agricultural value added per worker over the same period for those countries. The predicted trends were also consistent with observed trends in poverty and hunger, suggesting that the methodology is a useful and least-cost approach for monitoring household incomes to support evaluation of public investment programs." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Household income, Monitoring and evaluation, Proxy indicators, Public investments, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:771&r=afr |
| By: | Anubha Dhasmana; Paulo Flavio Nacif Drummond |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at the question of adequacy of reserves in sub-Saharan African countries in light of the shocks faced by these countries. Literature on optimal reserves so far has not paid attention to the particular shocks facing low-income countries. We use a two-good endowment economy model facing terms of trade and aid shocks to derive the optimal level of reserves by comparing the cost of holding reserves with their benefits as an insurance against a shock. We find that the optimal level of reserves depends upon the size of these shocks, their probability, and the output cost associated with them, |
| Keywords: | Working Paper , Sub-Saharan Africa , Reserves adequacy , Foreign exchange reserves , Balance of payments , Terms of trade , Regional shocks , |
| Date: | 2008–06–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/150&r=afr |
| By: | Mahvash Saeed Qureshi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the structural competitiveness of oil-rich economies in sub-Saharan Africa relative to other major oil-exporting developing countries, and investigates reasons for systematic differences in the non-oil export performance across these economies. The analysis reveals that oil-rich Africa lags behind other oil-exporters in terms of diversification, global market share and the overall investment climate. The poor performance of their nonoil sector can be largely attributed to weak infrastructure and institutional quality. The results also show that institutional quality is a significant determinant of the extent to which oil abundance affects the competitiveness of the non-oil sector; thereby explaining the divergent experiences of oil-rich economies across the world. This implies that oil wealth does not necessarily weaken the non-oil tradable sector; countries may mitigate the impact of Dutch disease and benefit from oil booms if revenues are used prudently to reduce oil dependence. |
| Keywords: | Sub-Saharan Africa , Oil producing countries , Oil exporting countries , Competition , Financial institutions , Terms of trade , Export diversification , Foreign investment , |
| Date: | 2008–07–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/172&r=afr |
| By: | You, Liangzhi; Johnson, Michael |
| Abstract: | "Agriculture plays a dominant role in nearly all the countries of East and Central Africa, and many face similar agroecological, climatic, and development challenges. As a result, significant scale economies can be made through the regionalization of research and development (R&D) using networks such as the Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern and Central Africa. The challenge for such networks, however, is to determine both regional and national research priorities with the highest potential rates of economic return. Methodology to assess regional research priorities is a critical input into this process, particularly when it comes to weighing likely complementarities among individual research programs, thus maximizing impact across countries at the regional level. This paper presents such an approach using spatial analysis and the Dynamic Research Evaluation for Management (Dream) modeling software, which was developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute to assess potential economic returns to agricultural R&D and guide resource allocation decisions. Dream is applied to the East and Central African region to estimate potential economic and technological spillovers from country- and regional-level R&D investments for select commodities based on future projections of supply and demand, trade flows between countries and world markets, and shared agroecologies and farming systems. The results of the study indicate significant potential for agricultural technology spillovers within the region. Countries will therefore reap greater economic benefits in their search for technology solutions if they pool their resources and pursue regional initiatives for the common good." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | DREAM, Technology spillovers, Priority setting, Economic surplus, Agricultural research, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:776&r=afr |
| By: | Paul Collier (University of Oxford); Pedro C. Vicente (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | Following the wave of democratization during the 1990s, elections are now common in low-income societies. However, these elections are frequently flawed. We investigate the Nigerian general election of 2007, which is to date the largest election held in Africa and one seriously marred by violence. We designed and conducted a nationwide field experiment based on randomized anti-violence grassroots campaigning. We find direct effects on violence outcomes from exploring both subject-surveying and independent data sources. Crucially, we establish that voter intimidation is effective in reducing voter turnout, and that the violence was systematically dissociated from incumbents. We suggest that incumbents have a comparative advantage in alternative strategies, vote buying and ballot fraud. Voter intimidation may be a strategy of the weak analogous to terrorism. |
| Keywords: | Violence, Conflict, Electoral Politics, Political Economy, Randomized Experiment, Field Experiment, Nigeria, West Africa |
| JEL: | D72 D74 O55 P16 |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:50&r=afr |
| By: | Dercon, Stefan; Hoddinott, John; Krishnan, Pramila; Woldehannnam, Tassew |
| Abstract: | "Collective action can help individuals, groups, and communities achieve common goals, thus contributing to poverty reduction. Drawing on longitudinal household and qualitative community data, the authors examine the impact of shocks on household living standards, study the correlates of participation in groups and formal and informal networks, and discuss the relationship of networks with access to other forms of capital. In this context, they assess how one form of collective action, iddir, or burial societies, help households attenuate the impact of illness. They find that iddir effectively deal with problems of asymmetric information by restricting membership geographically, imposing a membership fee, and conducting checks on how the funds were spent. The study also finds that while iddir help poor households cope with individual health shocks, but shows that the better-off households belong to more groups and have larger networks. In addition, where households have limited ability to develop spatial networks, collective action has limited ability to respond to covariate shocks. Therefore, realism is needed in terms of the ability of collective action to respond to shocks, and direct public action is more appropriate to deal with common shocks." authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Collective action, Burial societies, Shocks, Vulnerability, Poverty, Networks, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:worpps:83&r=afr |
| By: | German, Laura; Mazengia, Waga; Tirwomwe, Wilberforce; Ayele, Shenkut; Tanui, Joseph; Nyangas, Simon; Begashaw, Leulseged; Taye, Hailemichael; Admassu, Zenebe; Tsegaye, Mesfin; Alinyo, Francis; Mekonnen, Ashenafi; Aberra, Kassahun; Chemangeni, Awadh; Cheptegei, William; Tolera, Tessema; Jotte Zewdie; Bedane, Kiflu |
| Abstract: | "The role of local and external institutions in natural resource management (NRM) is gaining attention in the literature, fostering greater understanding of the relationship between collective action and poverty, collective action and equity, and the conditions under which collective action institutions take root. It has also led to increased understanding of how uncritical practices by external development institutions can propagate social inequities in NRM. Yet little research has been conducted to understand how to foster local collective action institutions where they are absent, or to improve institutional practice. This research integrates empirical and action research in an effort to generate ‘working solutions' to problems facing rural communities in their efforts to manage their natural resources in the highlands of Ethiopia and Uganda. Following a brief introduction to the literature and the research, findings are presented according to two distinct phases of research. Data are first presented on existing forms of collective action, the influence of local and external institutions on economic development, and NRM problems that persist despite their negative livelihood consequences. Action research themes selected from a list of identified problems are then presented in greater detail, with lessons learnt thus far in attempting to overcome institutional barriers to improved NRM. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of findings for research, institutional practice, and policy." authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Natural resource management, Collective action, Equity, Livelihoods, East African highlands, Gender, Environmental management, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:worpps:86&r=afr |
| By: | Nkonya, Ephraim; Gicheru, Patrick; Woelcke, Johannes; Okoba, Barrack; Kilambya, Daniel; Gachimbi, Louis N. |
| Abstract: | "This article analyzes the on-site and off-site economic impacts of various sustainable land management (SLM) practices in Kenya. Long-term trial data are used to establish the relationship between SLM practices and maize yield. The analysis of on-site effects focuses on the profitability of maize production at the farm level, while the examined off-site effects include carbon sequestration and siltation from maize farms, which increase the cost of potable water production. The major contribution of this study is the use of long-term experimental data to estimate the impacts of land management practices on crop yield and consider their off-site benefits and costs. The results of this study show that soil and water conservation (SWC) structures reinforced with leguminous plants are more profitable when the plants are used as fodder, as opposed to situations in which only SWC structures are used. SWC structures reinforced with vegetation had lower maintenance costs, whereas those that were not reinforced with leguminous trees were not profitable over the long-term period. These results suggest that complementary and multipurpose SWC practices are more likely to be adopted compared to non-complementary and/or single-purpose practices. Thus, SWC practices should be promoted as a package of complementary technologies. If it is not feasible to promote a mix of complementary enterprises, high value crops are likely to make SLM practices more profitable. In areas where SLM practices are not profitable, promotion of alternative livelihoods is necessary. Adoption of SLM also provides global environmental services worth 10% of the net present value of the SLM practices over the 50-year period addressed in the present study Finally, the results of this analysis suggest that farmers who offer significant environmental services should be compensated for their efforts." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Agroforestry, Land degradation, Soil erosion, Sustainable land management, Land management, Economic impacts, maize, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:778&r=afr |
| By: | Wassie Berhanu; David Colman; Bichaka Fayissa |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the recently growing adoption of non-pastoral livelihood strategies among the Borana pastoralists in southern Ethiopia. A large portion of the current non-pastoral participation is in petty and natural resource-based activities. Pastoral and crop production functions are estimated using the Cobb-Douglas model to analyse the economic rationale behind the growing pastoralist shift to cultivation and other non-pastoral activities. The low marginal return to labour in traditional pastoralism suggests the existence of surplus labour that can gainfully be transferred to non-pastoral activities. An examination of the pastoralist activity choices reveals that the younger households with literacy and more exposure to the exchange system display a more diversified income portfolio preference. The findings underscore the importance of human capital investment and related support services for improving the pastoralist capacity to manage risk through welfare-enhancing diversified income portfolio adoption. |
| Keywords: | Pastoralism, Dryland Farming, Diversification, Production Functions, Ethiopia. |
| JEL: | D00 I3 J2 O12 |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mts:wpaper:200806&r=afr |
| By: | Kaganzi, Elly; Ferris, Shaun; Barham, James; Abenakyo, Annet; Sanginga, Pascal; Njuki, Jemimah |
| Abstract: | "Uganda's rapid urbanization, particularly in the capital city Kampala, offers new market opportunities for organized farmers to supply higher value produce for emerging growth markets such as multinational supermarket chains and fast food restaurants. Higher urban incomes allow consumers to shift from small shops and street food stalls to more formalized markets and modern food restaurants. These more formal market outlets provide both food safety and greater choice of produce. Supplying these outlets offers both higher income and improved business relations for farmers, but accessing these markets also requires significant upgrading in terms of product quality, more secure supply chains, and more efficient marketing and business management. To meet these conditions, farmers need to become organized for a marketplace that requires increased levels of bonding social capital to meet upgrade conditions and strengthened bridging social capital through partnerships with service providers and market chain actors to engage with these higher value markets in a long-term manner. One farmers' association in a remote rural area in Southwestern Uganda has successfully sustained market links through sales of high quality Irish potatoes to a fast food outlet in Kampala. To meet the volumes, frequency of supply, and quality parameters demanded by their client, the farmers have had to learn a series of new skills and integrate multiple innovations at the technical, organizational, financial, and marketing levels, and meet many of the classical conditions associated with collective action based on empowerment through social and human capital development. This paper outlines how the use of collective action combined with strong leadership and an iterative market-led learning process have enabled a smallholder farmer's association to supply a perishable crop to a modern food outlet market with stringent quality parameters. Success in this market linkage was possible through effective support from both development and research providers and the strong entrepreneurial drive from the farmer association." authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Marketing, Potato, High value markets, Fast food, Entrepreneurial, Social cohesion, Innovation, Quality, Competitiveness, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:worpps:75&r=afr |
| By: | Monnet Gbakou (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines); Mustapha Sadni Jallab (UNECA - United Nations Economic Commission for Africa - United Nations); René Sandretto (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at analyzing the possible influence of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth in the particular case of Middle East and North African countries (MENA). During the last years, the relation between FDI and growth in LDCs has been discussed extensively in the economic literature. However, the view that FDI stimulates economic growth does not receive an unanimous support. In order to access empirically this relation in MENA countries, we use a dynamic panel procedure with observations per country over the period 1970-2005. To improve efficiency, we use the standard “difference” and “system” GMM and 2SLS estimators. Our findings show that there is no independent impact of FDI on economic growth. The growth-effect of FDI does not also depend on degree of openness to trade and income per capita. But, the positive impact of FDI on economic growth depends on macroeconomic stability: there is a threshold effect of annual percentage change of consumer prices. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Direct Investment ; macroeconomic stability ; economic growth ; Middle East and North Africa ; two-stage least squares ; generalized moments methods |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00303694_v1&r=afr |
| By: | Beyene, Fekadu; Korf, Benedikt |
| Abstract: | "In Ethiopian development policies, pastoralist areas have recently attracted more attention. However, much debate and policy advice is still based on assumptions that see a sedentary lifestyle as the desirable development outcome for pastoralist communities. This paper investigates current practices of collective action and how these are affected by changing property rights in the pastoralist and agro-pastoralist economies of three selected sites in eastern Ethiopia. We describe forms of collective action in water and pasture resource management and analyze how changing property rights regimes affect incentives for collective action. We illustrate the distributional effects these practices are having on (agro-) pastoralist communities and how these practices are being influenced by the broader political and economic dynamisms of the area." authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Pastoralism, Collective action, Property rights, Conflict, Water management, Rangelands management, Environmental management, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:worpps:88&r=afr |
| By: | Barham, James; Chitemi, Clarence |
| Abstract: | "The primary inquiry of this study is to identify and understand the underlying factors that enable smallholder farmer groups to improve their market situation. The specific objective of this paper is to examine to what extent certain group characteristics and asset endowments facilitate collective action initiatives to improve group marketing performance. This objective is approached through an evaluation of a government-led program in Tanzania, which is attempting to increase smallholder farmers' incomes and food security through a market-oriented intervention. Findings suggest that more mature groups with strong internal institutions, functioning group activities, and a good asset base of natural capital are more likely to improve their market situation. Gender composition of groups also factors in group marketing performance. It acts as an enabling factor for male-dominated groups and as a disabling factor for female-only groups. Structural social capital in the form of membership in other groups and ties to external service providers, and cognitive social capital in the form of intragroup trust and altruistic behavior are not significant factors in a group's ability to improve its market situation." authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Collective action, Agricultural marketing, Farmer groups, Social capital, Planned change initiatives, Gender, Marketing, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:worpps:74&r=afr |
| By: | Christopher Adam; David Cobham |
| Abstract: | Middle East and North African (MENA) countries have traditionally anchored their currencies largely on the US dollar, but the creation of the euro means that there is now for the first time a real alternative numéraire and anchor available. This paper estimates the effect of a menu of exchange rate regimes on trade within a gravity model, using the Baier & Bergstrand (2006) Taylor expansion technique to allow for multilateral trade resistance. This approach allows simulations of the effects of changes in the exchange rate regime for a particular country or region which explicitly take into account the associated changes in multilateral and world trade resistance. Results are presented for eight different scenarios: pegging to the dollar, dollarising, pegging to the euro and euroising, each of these on an individual country basis and when the MENA countries all implement the change together. We find that in terms of the trade effects for most MENA countries it would be better to anchor on the euro than on the dollar, but for some others (typically small oil exporters with large exports to Asian countries) it would be better to continue to anchor on the dollar. |
| Keywords: | gravity, geography, trade, exchange rate regime, currency union, transactions costs, multilateral trade resistance, MENA, Middle East, North Africa, euro, dollar |
| JEL: | F10 F33 F49 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hwe:certdp:0803&r=afr |
| By: | Ferris, Shaun; Engoru, Patrick; Kaganzi, Elly |
| Abstract: | "There is growing pressure for farmers in countries such as Uganda to accelerate their efforts to commercialize production in the face of increasing market competition from neighboring countries and across the world. To assist farmers, a new generation of low cost market information services is being developed that takes advantage of information and communication technologies such as FM radios, mobile phones, and internet-based communications systems, to enable farmers to monitor and adjust to dynamic market conditions in local, national, and export markets. Although there is much interest in market information from farmers, other market chain actors, and service providers, there is skepticism from funding agencies to support such services over the long term, due to past failures. This study therefore aims to evaluate how farmers access and use market information to improve their market decision making. It also evaluates whether there are any advantages of collective action in using market information to improve marketing decisions. This is considered an important point of analysis as virtually all extension plans in Uganda currently use farmer groups as key element of their learning and intervention strategies. Survey results found that all farmers interviewed were able to access market information through radio and mobile phones. In Uganda, up to 94 percent of farmers interviewed owned a radio and 25 percent of farmers owned mobile phones. Up to 52 percent of farmers indicated that receiving Market Information Services (MIS) had a positive impact on their business, and 39 percent stated that it had a lot of impact in terms of decision making and stabilizing incomes." authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Market Information Services, Group Marketing, Collective action, FM Radio, Mobile Phone, SMS, income, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:worpps:77&r=afr |
| By: | Hundie Bekele; Padmanabhan, Martina |
| Abstract: | "The major economic activity for pastoralists is animal husbandry. The harsh environment in which herders raise their livestock requires constant mobility to regulate resource utilisation via a common property regime. In contrast to the mobile way of life characterizing pastoralism, agriculture as a sedentary activity is only marginally present in the lowlands of the Afar regional state in Ethiopia. Nevertheless, this study reveals a situation where the traditional land-use arrangements in Afar are being transformed due to the introduction of farming. In the past, the Imperial and the Socialist governments introduced large-scale agriculture in a coercive manner, thereby instigating massive resistance from the pastoralists. Currently, the recurrence of drought in the study areas has facilitated the subdivision of the communal land on a voluntary basis for the purpose of farming. Qualitative and quantitative analysis highlight the drivers, both coercive and non-coercive, of the transformation of traditional property rights of Afar pastoralists." authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Pastoralism, livestock, Property rights, Rangeland management, Communal land, Environmental management, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:worpps:87&r=afr |
| By: | Eita, Joel Hinaunye; Mbazima, Daisy |
| Abstract: | The relationship between government revenue and government expenditure is important, given its relevance for policy especially with respect to the budget deficit. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between government revenue and government expenditure in Namibia. It investigates the causal relationship between government revenue and government expenditure using Granger causality test through cointegrated vector autoregression (VAR) methods for the period the period 1977 to 2007. The paper tests whether government revenue causes government expenditure or whether the causality runs from government expenditure to government revenue, and if there is bi-directional causality. The results show that there is unidirectional causality from government revenue to government expenditure. This suggests unsustainable fiscal imbalances (deficit) can be mitigated by policies that stimulate government revenue. |
| Keywords: | government expenditure; government revenue; causality; cointegration test; revenue-spend; spend-revenue; fiscal synchronisation; Namibia |
| JEL: | C32 C5 H0 C50 H5 H2 |
| Date: | 2008–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:9154&r=afr |