|
on Africa |
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Issue of 2006‒11‒25
fifty-six papers chosen by Suzanne McCoskey Foreign Service Institute, US Department of State |
| By: | Antony Chapoto; T.S. Jayne (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | Studies conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa during the 1980s generally found a positive correlation between socioeconomic characteristics such as education, income, and wealth and subsequent contraction of HIV. However, as the disease has progressed, the relationship between socioeconomic status and HIV contraction may have changed in many areas of Sub Saharan Africa, although there is little hard evidence to support this. This paper seeks to determine the ex ante socioeconomic characteristics of individuals who die between the ages of 15 to 59 years of age, using nationally representative panel data on 18,821 individuals surveyed in 2001 and 2004 in rural Zambia. The findings from this study will help policy-makers and development agencies better understand current transmission pathways of HIV/AIDS, which should help in the formulation of AIDS prevention and mitigation strategies. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, HIV/AIDS, socioeconomic status, Zambia |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:zm-fsrp-wp-014&r=afr |
| By: | David Tschirley (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Colin Poulton; Duncan Boughton |
| Abstract: | With cotton sector reform in much of SSA a decade old, it is now possible to review the empirical record and begin drawing lessons from experience. This paper assesses the record of five countries in southern and eastern Africa: Tanzania, Uganda, Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Mozambique. In four of these countries, cotton is the first- or second most important smallholder cash crop; only in Uganda does it substantially lag other cash crops. The focus on the course of reform in each – initial conditions, key elements of the reform, and institutional response to it – and attempt to draw lessons for policy makers, donors, and researchers. the paper begins by outlining the challenges faced by cotton production and marketing systems. Next a review the range of pre-reform institutional responses to these challenges, before discussing the reform process in each country and reviewing the evolving institutional response to it. Finally, assess the performance that each country has achieved and attempt to relate this to its initial conditions and subsequent institutional responses, and closing by outlining lessons for strategies to improve cotton systems in SSA. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, cotton sector reform, Tanzania, Uganda, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Mozambique |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:zm-fsrp-wp-018&r=afr |
| By: | David Tschirley (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Pedro Arlindo; Jan J. Nijhoff; Billy Mwinga; Michael T. Weber; T.S. Jayne |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the efficiency and effectiveness of emergency response in Southern Africa through the lens of the 2002/03-food crisis in the region. It outlines improvements in information and operational procedures needed to enhance the response to future events. Also discussed are national and regional trade regime changes that would reduce the need for emergency response, and consider what lessons the 2002/03 crisis may have for the role of Strategic Grain Reserves. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, food crisis, southern Africa, trade |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpbrf:mz-minag-rl-46e&r=afr |
| By: | Tobias Knedlik |
| Abstract: | Currency crises episodes of 1996, 1998, and 2001 are used to identify common country specific causes of currency crises in South Africa. The paper identifies crises by the use of an Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) index as introduced by Eichengreen, Rose and Wyplosz (1996). It extends the Signals Approach introduced by Kaminsky and Reinhart (1996, 1998) by developing a composite indicator in order to measure the evolution of currency crisis risk in South Africa. The analysis considers the standard suspects from international currency crises and country specifics as identified by the Myburgh Commission (2002) and current literature as potentially relevant indicators. |
| Keywords: | signals approach, currency crises, South Africa |
| JEL: | E5 F3 G1 |
| Date: | 2006–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwh:dispap:19-06&r=afr |
| By: | David Tschirley (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Jan J. Nijhoff; Pedro Arlindo; Billy Mwinga; Michael T. Weber; T.S. Jayne |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the efficiency and effectiveness of emergency response in southern Africa through the lens of the 2002/03 food crisis in the region. The authors outline improvements in information and operational procedures needed to enhance the response to future events. They also discuss national and regional trade regime changes that would reduce the need for emergency response, and consider what lessons the 2002/03 crisis may have for the role of Strategic Grain Reserves (SGRs). |
| Keywords: | food security, drought, emergency, Southern Africa |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:idpwrk:089&r=afr |
| By: | T.S. Jayne (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Antony Chapoto |
| Abstract: | This note summarizes analysis of trends in net maize exports over the 1960-2005 period and examines whether these trends are being reflected in changing maize price levels in the region. The implications are highlighted of the findings for countries’ agricultural development strategies. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Zambia maize |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpbrf:zm-fsrp-pb-016&r=afr |
| By: | Jerven, Morten (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the methodology and evidence of recent regression literature attributing the African growth shortfall to lack of social capital. It finds that the literature is not able to account for the actual economic growth experience, only in a significantly reformulated and misleading way. The paper considers how social capital is defined and which proxies are used in the literature, and notes considerable theoretical and empirical inconsistency. In conclusion the paper supports the contention that social capital is best understood as an outcome, and not a cause of growth. At the present state of the literature explaining economic growth the use of social capital as a determinant. has not been empirically useful nor analytically coherent. |
| Keywords: | Social Capital; Africa; Economic Growth |
| JEL: | N17 O47 Z13 |
| Date: | 2006–11–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ratioi:0108&r=afr |
| By: | David Tschirley (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Danilo Abdula; Michael T. Weber |
| Abstract: | Food system challenges are examined from the standpoint of the country’s principal staple food: maize. Steps are identified that the country could take in the short-run to improve the situation, and also emphasize the long-term challenges the country faces. The focus is principally on the Center and South of the country because, with South Africa, they form a natural market area due to production patterns and transport costs; maize north of the Zambezi River flows almost entirely to northern cities or to Malawi, or feeds net buyers in the North. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Mozambique, maize |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpbrf:mz-minag-rl-45p&r=afr |
| By: | Ludvig Söderling; Domenico Fanizza |
| Abstract: | Many countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region have recently experienced surges in money growth that apparently have not generated significant inflationary pressures. Moreover, several MENA countries have followed monetary policy rules that according to standard monetary theory should have produced macroeconomic instability and possibly hyperinflation. We argue that the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level could usefully provide insights on these developments. Our main conclusion is that a sound fiscal position constitutes a necessary condition for macroeconomic stability whereas "sound" monetary policy is neither sufficient nor necessary. Hence, fiscal policy and public debt deserve particular attention for maintaining macroeconomic stability, by and large consistent with Fund policy advice to MENA countries. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal theory of the price level , Algeria , Egypt , Lebanon , Morocco , Tunisia , |
| Date: | 2006–10–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/216&r=afr |
| By: | Antony Chapoto (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); T.S. Jayne; N. Mason |
| Abstract: | Beyond the obvious catastrophic effects of the HIV/AIDS pandemic on mortality, demographic changes, and the suffering of individuals and their families, we are still only learning about the complex longer-term effects of the pandemic on poverty and vulnerability. For example, the HIV/AIDS pandemic has substantially increased the number of widow-headed households in Africa. A huge number of conceptual and qualitative studies highlight gender inequalities in property rights, and the difficulties that widows and their dependents face in retaining access to land after the death of their husbands. HIV/AIDS has undoubtedly exacerbated such problems. However, there remains limited quantitative evidence using representative survey data on the extent to which widows lose their rights to land after the death of their husbands, whether they lose all or part of the land they were formerly controlling, and whether there are certain characteristics of the widow, her deceased husband, and/or her household that influence the likelihood of her losing land rights. It is highly possible that government programs designed to provide a safety net to vulnerable groups may not reach their potential if they ignore gender dimensions of local institutions and property rights. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, HIV/AIDS, Zambia, land |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:zm-fsrp-wp-019&r=afr |
| By: | Richard Akresh (University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign); Philip Verwimp (Institute of Social Studies) |
| Abstract: | Economic shocks at birth have lasting impacts on children’s health several years after the shock. We calculate height for age z-scores for children under age five using data from a Rwandan nationally representative household survey conducted in 1992. We exploit district and time variation in crop failure and civil conflict to measure the impact of exogenous shocks that children experience at birth on their height several years later. We find that girls born after a shock in a region experiencing these events exhibit 0.72 standard deviations lower height for age z-scores and the impact is worse for poor households. There is no impact of these shocks on boys’ health status. Results are robust to using household level production and rainfall shocks as alternative measures of crop failure. The analysis also contributes to the debate on the economic conditions prevailing on the eve of the Rwandan genocide. |
| Keywords: | Child health, economic shocks, civil war, rainfall shocks, Africa |
| JEL: | I12 J13 O12 O15 |
| Date: | 2006–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:19&r=afr |
| By: | Antony Chapoto; T.S. Jayne (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | This study estimates the impacts of prime-age (PA) adult morbidity and mortality on crop production and cropping patterns, household size, livestock and non-farm income in Zambia using nationally representative rural farm household longitudinal survey data. The findings provide important information to assist policy makers, donors, and development planners in designing interventions to mitigate the impacts of the AIDS on vulnerable households. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Zambia, HIV/AIDS mortality |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpbrf:zm-fsrp-pb-012&r=afr |
| By: | Clive Bell (University of Heidelberg); Hans Gersbach (ETH Zurich and IZA Bonn) |
| Abstract: | What is the right balance among policy interventions in order to ensure economic growth over the long run when an epidemic causes heavy mortality among young adults? We argue that, in general, policies to combat the disease and promote education must be concentrated, in certain ways, on some subgroups of society, at first to the partial exclusion of others. This concentration involves what we term the macroeconomics of targeting. The central comparison is then between programs under which supported families enjoy the benefits of spending on health and education simultaneously (DT), and those under which the benefits in these two domains are sequenced (ST). When levels of human capital are uniformly low at the outbreak, DT is superior to ST if the subsequent mortality rate exceeds some threshold value. Outside aid makes DT more attractive; but DT restricts support to fewer families initially and so increases inequality. |
| Keywords: | epidemic diseases, HIV/AIDS, poverty traps, macroeconomics of targeting, education support, health policies, single and double targeting |
| JEL: | E62 H20 I10 I20 O11 |
| Date: | 2006–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2393&r=afr |
| By: | Joshua Ariga (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); T.S. Jayne; J. Nyoro |
| Abstract: | The objective of this study is to identify the factors responsible for the impressive growth in fertilizer use in Kenya since market liberalization in the early 1990s. Over the past 10 years, fertilizer consumption has risen by 35%. So far, it is unknown whether smallholder farmers are responsible for this growth or whether it is being driven mainly by the large-scale and/or estate sectors. Moreover, it is important for policy makers to know whether the increased fertilizer consumption is being devoted to smallholder food crops or whether industrial crops such as tea and sugarcane are responsible for this growth. This study addresses these questions using nationwide survey data on smallholder fertilizer use patterns between 1996 and 2004. The study also explores whether the growth in fertilizer use in Kenya is attributed to any particular types of fertilizer delivery supply chains. A better understanding of the types of fertilizer distribution channels fueling the growth in consumption and the sustainability of these delivery systems can be of great help in guiding future policy to replicate successful supply chain models more widely in Kenya. Finally the study is meant to guide discussions on fertilizer marketing policy in Kenya in line with the new Economic Recovery Strategy (ERS). |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, fertilizer consumption, Kenya |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:ke-tegemeo-wp-024&r=afr |
| By: | Joshua Ariga; T.S. Jayne (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | The study aimed to identify the factors responsible for the impressive growth in fertilizer use in Kenya since the early 1990s, and thereby provide policy lessons both for Kenya as well as for other African countries. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Kenya, fertilizer use |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpbrf:ke-tegemeo-pb-007&r=afr |
| By: | Paul Gamba (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Elliot Mghenyi |
| Abstract: | The objectives of this paper are: measure the prevalence of rural poverty in 1997 and 2000, based on the nationwide Tegemeo survey; categorize households according to whether they were above the poverty line in both 1997 and 2000, entered into poverty or exited from poverty between 1997 and 2000, or were above the poverty line in both years; identifies the household-level and community-level factors associated with rural poverty through econometric analysis; and the implications of these results for the design of appropriate poverty reduction strategies. Such analysis is intended to guide donor programs and interventions designed to attack the roots of chronic poverty. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Kenya, rural poverty |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:ke-tegemeo-wp-021&r=afr |
| By: | Antony Chapoto; T.S. Jayne (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | Using comprehensive rural farm household longitudinal data from Zambia, this paper measures the impacts of prime-age (PA) adult morbidity and mortality on crop production and cropping patterns, household size, livestock and non-farm income. The paper adopts and extends the counterfactual (difference-in-difference) approach by controlling for initial (pre-death) household conditions that may influence the severity of the impacts of adult mortality. In particular, the study controls for initial poverty status, landholding size, effective dependency ratios, and the gender and position of the deceased person. Moreover, the possibility that PA death in the household is endogenous is taken into account by conceptualizing the measurement of effects of prime-age adult death on rural agricultural households’ welfare as a two stage process: first, by examining the characteristics of afflicted households; and second, conditional on being afflicted, determining the effects of morbidity and mortality on indicators of household welfare both prior to and after mortality. The findings from this study provide important information that may assist governments, donors, and development planners in developing specific policies or interventions to mitigate the impacts of the disease on vulnerable households. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, HIV/AIDS, prime-age mortality, endogeneity, rural livelihoods |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:zm-fsrp-wp-015&r=afr |
| By: | Todd D. Mattina |
| Abstract: | This paper outlines the challenge of developing an operational macroeconomic framework in Ethiopia consistent with the large envisaged scaling up of aid to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). This paper describes an MDG scenario that addresses both microeconomic and macroeconomic constraints, such as the need to boost sustainable growth, limit Dutch disease, formulate an exit strategy from aid dependency, enhance public financial management (PFM), and expand the supply of skilled labor. The paper will argue that a carefully sequenced MDG strategy is essential so that the scaled-up aid and public spending will remain in line with Ethiopia's absorptive capacity. |
| Keywords: | Millennium Development Goals , Dutch desease , absorptive capacity , aid scaling up , Millennium Development Goals , Ethiopia , Development assistance , |
| Date: | 2006–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/192&r=afr |
| By: | Antony Chapoto; T.S. Jayne (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | This study is designed to help policy-makers and development agencies in the formulation of AIDS prevention and mitigation strategies. The study determines the ex ante socioeconomic characteristics of individuals who die between the ages of 15 to 59 years of age (hereafter called “prime age” mortality), using nationally representative panel data of individuals surveyed in rural Zambia between 2001 and 2004. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Zambia, prime-age mortality, HIV/AIDS |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpbrf:zm-fsrp-pb-010&r=afr |
| By: | Christian von Soest (GIGA Institute of African Affairs) |
| Abstract: | Following the neopatrimonialism paradigm, it can be hypothesised that in African states informal politics of the rulers infringe on the collection of taxes and in turn reduce state revenues. This article tests this proposition for the case of Zambia. The main finding is that there is no linear correlation between a neopatrimonial system and the collection of taxes. Neopatrimonial continuity in the country is evidenced by three factors; the concentration of political power, the award of personal favours and the misuse of state resources. De-spite this continuity, the revenue performance has increased considerably with the crea-tion of the semi-autonomous Zambia Revenue Authority. This demonstrates that the effect of neopatrimonialism on public policy in the African state is highly context-specific and dependent on the interaction with additional variables. Donor pressure has been the most important in the Zambian case. In order to apply neopatrimonialism for further empirical work on public policy in the African state, these additional variables have to be incorpo-rated into the analysis. |
| Keywords: | Neopatrimonialism, collection of revenue, tax systems, Zambia, African state, donors |
| Date: | 2006–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gig:wpaper:32&r=afr |
| By: | Antony Chapoto (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); T.S. Jayne |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the trends in retail maize meal prices and the wholesale-retail margins enjoyed by millers and retailers in Zambia since maize and maize meal prices were decontrolled in the early 1990s. This note summarizes material from a broader study on Zambia’s maize supply chain. The findings from this paper are designed to inform policy discussions aimed at improving household food security and maize market performance in Zambia. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Zambia, maize |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpbrf:zm-fsrp-pb-014&r=afr |
| By: | Charles Amo Yartey |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the corporate financing pattern in Ghana. In particular, it investigates whether Singh's theoretically anomalous findings that developing country firms make considerably more use of external finance and new equity issues than developed country firms to finance asset growth hold in the case of Ghana. Replicating Singh's methodology, our results show that compared with corporations in advanced countries, the average listed Ghanaian firm finances its growth of total assets mainly from short-term debt. The stock market, however, is the most important source of long-term finance for listed Ghanaian firms. Overall, the evidence in this paper suggests that the stock market is a surprisingly important source of finance for funding corporate growth and that stock market development in Ghana has been important. |
| Keywords: | Stock markets , corporate finance , corporate growth , Ghana , |
| Date: | 2006–09–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/201&r=afr |
| By: | John Fynn; Steven Haggblade (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | The rapid recent appreciation of the Kwacha has placed these gains at risk. The sudden strengthening of the Kwacha since November 2005 has reduced the Kwacha value of agricultural exports by 30%, forcing reductions in farmgate prices and eroding exporter profit margins. As in a classic case of Dutch Disease, large inflows of foreign exchange–whether from surging international copper prices, foreign aid or speculative financial inflows–have contributed to the strengthening Kwacha. The subsequent rapid appreciation of the Kwacha risks making much of Zambia’s export agriculture uncompetitive on world markets. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Zambia, appreciation impact |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpbrf:zm-fsrp-pb-013&r=afr |
| By: | T.S. Jayne (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Robert J. Meyers; James Nyoro |
| Abstract: | The objectives of this paper are to determine the effects of NCPB maize trading activity and the maize import tariff on wholesale maize market price levels and volatility. The analysis uses monthly maize price and trade data covering the period January 1990 to September 2004. Results are based on a vector autoregression (VAR) approach that allows estimation of a counterfactual set of maize prices that would have occurred over the 1990-2004 period had the NCPB not existed and trade restrictions been removed. Assessed are the separate impacts of policy on wholesale prices in Kitale, a major surplus-producing area, and Nairobi, the major urban demand center in the country. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, maize marketing trade policies, Kenya |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:ke-tegemeo-wp-015&r=afr |
| By: | Mme Sanogo Kadiatou Dème; Niama Nango Dembélé (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); John Staatz; Abdramane Traoré |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Mali |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:ml-promisam-wp-001&r=afr |
| By: | Joshua S. Graff Zivin; Harsha Thirumurthy; Markus Goldstein |
| Abstract: | The provision of life-saving antiretroviral (ARV) treatment has emerged as a key component of the global response to HIV/AIDS, but very little is known about the impact of this intervention on the welfare of children in the households of treated persons. We estimate the impact of ARV treatment on children’s schooling and nutrition outcomes using longitudinal household survey data collected in collaboration with a treatment program in western Kenya. We find that children’s weekly hours of school attendance increase by over 20 percent within six months after treatment is initiated for the adult household member. For boys in treatment households, these increases closely follow their reduced market labor supply. Similarly, young children’s short-term nutritional status—as measured by their weight-for-height Z-score—also improves dramatically. We argue that these treatment effects will be considerably larger when compared to the counterfactual scenario of no ARV treatment. The results provide evidence on how intrahousehold resource allocation is altered in response to significant health improvements. Since the improvements in children’s schooling and nutrition at these critical early ages will affect their socio-economic outcomes in adulthood, the widespread provision of ARV treatment is likely to generate significant long-run macroeconomic benefits. |
| JEL: | I1 I2 O12 O15 |
| Date: | 2006–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12689&r=afr |
| By: | Anthony Mwanaumo; T.S. Jayne (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Ballard Zulu; Julius Shawa; Green Mbozi; Steven Haggblade; Misheck Nyembe |
| Abstract: | This paper shows how government actions can affect the performance of the maize marketing system and influence the severity of food crises. Examples from the 2005/06 marketing season are used to illustrate how Zambia’s food security situation can be improved through closer consultation, transparency and predictability between government and the private sector. The paper also identifies longer-run options for strengthening the ability of local and regional markets to ensure household and national food security in the face of maize production instability. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Zambia, maize |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpbrf:zm-fsrp-pb-011&r=afr |
| By: | Marthe Diallo; Kadiatou Dème; Niama Nango Dembélé (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Abdramane Traoré; John Staatz |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Mali |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:ml-promisam-wp&r=afr |
| By: | Milu Muyanga (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); T.S. Jayne |
| Abstract: | The primary objective of this study is to assess the food crops and livestock extension service provision in Kenya with a broad aim of understanding what exists, what works and why. It seeks to expand knowledge on the nature of the existing extension providers, their characteristics, approaches employed and the challenges they face. Based on success cases, an attempt is made to delineate the fundamentals of ideal extension service system and the role of the government in such a scenario, with the aim of informing the implementation of the new National Agricultural Sector Extension Policy (NASEP). |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, extension services, privatization, policy reform, Kenya |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:ke-tegemeo-wp-026&r=afr |
| By: | Steven Haggblade (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | The coming 2005/06 maize harvest promises to be a good one, certainly better than last season. Market prices have begun falling, and the question now is how far they are likely to fall. Government currently has a maize export ban in place. This short note aims to assess the likely price levels this coming season, with and without an export ban. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Zambia, maize |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpbrf:zm-fsrp-pb-015&r=afr |
| By: | M. Muyanga; T.S. Jayne (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Gem Argwings-Kodhek; J. Ariga |
| Abstract: | This study examines current consumption patterns of the main staple carbohydrate products in Nairobi--maize, wheat, rice, and cooking banana--in an effort to illuminate policy issues affecting urban food security. Also identified the factors driving changes in the amount and form of urban maize meal consumption. To better understand how food security policy should be designed in order to respond to the needs of low-income consumers, we disaggregate consumption and expenditure patterns for low-, medium- and high-income groups. The study also examines whether the marketing channels used by the poor to secure their staple carbohydrate products differ from those used by relatively high-income consumers. The results hold important implications for policy makers by revealing how staple food consumption patterns are changing, and by identifying the types of investments that are needed to strengthen improve low-income consumers’ access to food. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, maize, wheat, rice, cooking banana, Kenya |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:ke-tegemeo-wp-016&r=afr |
| By: | Marie-Odile Attanasso |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of the gender of the household head on the determinants of monetary poverty in the Republic of Benin using data collected during the 1999 living standards measurement survey in the country's rural and urban areas. The results show that there has not been any feminization of poverty since 1995. In 1999, the incidence of poverty among female household heads was lower than that of their male-headed counterparts, but in some cities the poverty gap was higher. Based on these results, some suggestions are made in order to reduce the incidence of poverty in Benin. |
| Keywords: | Poverty, female-headed households, rural, urban, gender, education, Benin |
| JEL: | D13 D31 I20 I32 J16 O15 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:pmmacr:2005-06&r=afr |
| By: | Milton Ayieko; David Tschirley (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Mary Mathenge |
| Abstract: | This study looks at the urban consumption patterns of fresh fruits and vegetables and the major supply chain systems used in the distribution of fresh produce. The study integrates issues of supply chain organization and performance into the analysis of consumer demand for fresh produce. In particular, the study looks at how system organization and performance affects the ability of the system to satisfy consumer demand for fresh produce. The study pursues these main objectives, namely, to estimate the household consumption of fruits and vegetables per adult equivalent; to examine the shopping patterns of fresh produce consumers as compared to other food purchases; and to examine the various supply chain systems for fresh produce. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, fresh fruits and vegetable consumption, consumer demand, Kenya |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:ke-tegemeo-wp-019&r=afr |
| By: | John Fynn (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Steven Haggblade |
| Abstract: | The study aims to quantify the impact of the Kwacha appreciation and to project the broad impact on the agricultural export, domestic production and processing sectors. It explores the scope for mitigating actions – by farmers, commercial enterprises and government authorities – that might provide a means of survival of export operations and the retention of income-earning opportunities by rural communities in the commercial and small scale agricultural sectors. The study aims to assess the impact of the Kwacha appreciation on the viability of agricultural enterprises and income earning opportunities in the context of the new tax regulations proposed in the 2006 budget. It is anticipated that the findings of this study should establish a foundation for formulating a strategy for the survival of agricultural exports and domestic production capacity by various stakeholder groups. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Zambia Kwacha appreciation, agricultural export, domestic production |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:zm-fsrp-wp-016&r=afr |
| By: | T. Walker (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); R. Pitoro; A. Tomo; I. Sitoe; C. Salência; R. Mahanzule; C. Donovan; F. Mazuze |
| Abstract: | The bulk of this research report addresses the question of where commodity research should be cited across IIAM’s ten agro-ecologies and four zonal research centers. As IIAM decentralizes its scientific human resources to its four zonal center locations, it should not lose sight of the primacy of the Northeast Zonal Research Center in both economic importance and the potential for poverty reduction. Our analysis suggests that the Northeast Zonal Research Center contributes about 40% to value of commodity production and to absolute poverty alleviation. The temptation is that too many resources are allocated to the South Zonal Research Center because the research infrastructure in the south is wider and deeper than in the center and north of the country. If the three other zonal research centers are to fulfill their promise, a few key facilities need to be rehabilitated and strengthened in the center and north. The scarcity of research infrastructure is most constraining in the coastal agroecologies, especially for rice. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, priority setting, Mozambique, rice |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:mz-iiam-rr-03e&r=afr |
| By: | Cynthia Donovan (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Linda Bailey |
| Abstract: | This research seeks to evaluate the agricultural strategies used by households in dealing with morbidity and mortality, and to determine differences in crop production between households that have experienced a recent adult illness or death due to illness compared to those without adult morbidity or mortality. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Rwanda. morbity, mortality |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:rw-fsrp-rr-15&r=afr |
| By: | Amadou N. R. Sy |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the degree of financial integration in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). The structure of the financial sector and its institutional arrangements indicate that financial integration is well advanced in some aspects. Common and foreign ownership of banks is very high and cross-border transactions are frequent in the government securities markets. Common institutions help achieve a high degree of similarity of rules. There is nonetheless scope for further financial integration as indicated by persistent deviations from the law of one price, limited cross-border bank transactions, and differences in treatment. Policy measures could therefore help achieve greater financial convergence. |
| Keywords: | BCEAO , financial integration , Sigma- and Beta- Convergence , WAEMU , |
| Date: | 2006–10–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/214&r=afr |
| By: | Mary Mathenge; David Tschirley (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | Agricultural commodities typically show a strong seasonal pattern in production, with supplies which come off the farm during one or perhaps two distinct periods of the year having to meet relatively stable demand over the course of the entire year. This seasonal pattern in production can give rise to strong seasonal patterns in price movements, with low prices during and shortly after the harvest, rising to peaks just prior to the next harvest. Understanding this price seasonality, the typical timing and levels of seasonal highs and lows, and the reliability of each, is a key task for anyone wishing to understand the market for an agricultural commodity. This paper presents the results of seasonal analysis for seven fresh fruit and vegetable crops in Nairobi, Mombasa, and Kisumu: ripe bananas, kales, dry onions, tomatoes, cabbages, oranges, and potatoes due to their importance in urban consumer diets. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, wholesale fruit and vegetable prices, Kenya |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:ke-tegemeo-wp-022&r=afr |
| By: | David Megill (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | The Central Statistical Office (CSO) has been conducting the Zambia Post-Harvest Survey (PHS) annually for about 15 years. This survey is one of the most important sources of data in Zambia for the annual production of crops and livestock, as well as socio-economic characteristics of agricultural households. The purpose of this report is to document the findings from this review of the PHS sampling, listing and estimation methodology and the proposed weight adjustment procedures, as well as to make recommendations for improving the methodology for the PHS and Crop Forecasting Survey (CFS) in the future. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, estimation methodology, agricultural households |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:zm-fsrp-wp-013&r=afr |
| By: | Billy Mwiinga; Julius Shawa; T.S. Jayne (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); James Shaffer |
| Abstract: | This report provides an initial assessment of the impact of agricultural commodity taxes levied by local district authorities on the national objectives of food security, poverty alleviation and economic growth. A study was undertaken to provide government with a better understanding of the effects of the grain levy on the national policy objectives of promoting food security, poverty alleviation, and economic growth in Zambia. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, agricultural commodity taxes, Zambia |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:zm-fsrp-wp-012&r=afr |
| By: | Munguzwe Hichaambwa; David Tschirley (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to begin generating the empirical information needed to launch a process of stakeholder consultation regarding the key challenges facing the country’s horticultural sector. The paper is based on a rapid appraisal of the sector meant to provide a broad overview; FSRP’s hope is that stakeholder input will help identify a more focused set of applied research dealing with specific issues. The paper proceeds as follows: the rest of this chapter presents the data and methods used in the research; chapter two uses national rural household survey data to characterize horticultural marketing patterns in the smallholder sector; chapter three presents results of the rapid appraisal, focusing on large scale farmers, “first sellers” in the Soweto wholesale market of Lusaka, retail traders in Lusaka and Ndola, and shoppers from a range of retail outlets in both cities; chapter four concludes with a discussion of policy and program issues. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Zambia horticultural rapid appraisal, fresh fruits and vegetables |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:zm-fsrp-wp-017&r=afr |
| By: | Rina Bhattacharya; Dhaneshwar Ghura |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the linkages between oil and growth in Congo, where there appears to be no evidence of direct spillover effects. The empirical results suggest however that political instability has a negative effect on non-oil growth, and that the presence of oil could have fueled political instability by being associated with weakening institutions. The results also show that fiscal discipline is beneficial for growth. In addition, there are strong linkages between world oil prices and the real effective exchange rate, with movements in the latter having important indirect repercussions for growth. |
| Keywords: | oil , conflicts , economic growth , Oil , Congo, Republic of , Economic growth , Real effective exchange rates , |
| Date: | 2006–08–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/185&r=afr |
| By: | Susan Steiner (GIGA Institute for Ibero-American Studies) |
| Abstract: | It is often claimed that decentralisation is effective for the reduction of poverty due to in-herent opportunities for higher popular participation and increased efficiency in public service delivery. This paper is a qualitative assessment of the potential of the Ugandan decentralisation reform for poverty alleviation. The Ugandan government initiated an am-bitious decentralisation reform in 1992, which represents an example of full-fledged devo-lution with the transfer of far-reaching responsibilities to local governments. However, several shortcomings, such as low levels of accountability, insufficient human and finan-cial resources, corruption, patronage, and central resistance to decentralisation, constrain the proper implementation of the reform, putting improvements in participation and effi-ciency at risk and ultimately jeopardising the intended impact on poverty. |
| Keywords: | Decentralisation, Uganda, poverty reduction, participation, efficiency |
| Date: | 2006–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gig:wpaper:31&r=afr |
| By: | Valerie Kelly (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Janet Carpenter; Oumar Diall; Tom Easterling; Moctar Koné; Peter McCornick; Mike McGahuey |
| Abstract: | This report represents a synthesis of individual reports and notes prepared by each team member. The first three points in the terms of reference (TOR), provide an overview of current S&T research institutions and programs in Mali. Promising S&T products and needed support services are identified to encourage rapid uptake (4th item on the TOR). This discussion is divided into two sub-sections: one presents the key findings concerning crops and the other deals with livestock. These sections include the team’s recommendations for product- or subsector-based activities to be pursued in Mali by researchers, extension services, and public and private sector actors involved in different levels of the value-chain. Cross-cutting issues that affect technology development and uptake across multiple products and subsectors (5th item on the TOR) are analyzed. Key issues discussed are research and extension capacity; the role of natural resource and water management in stimulating agricultural productivity growth and reducing production risk; and downstream institutional constraints such as regulatory issues that limit uptake and dissemination of S&T products. Resolutions are discussed. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Mali science and technology research, research and extension |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:ml-promisam-rr-01f&r=afr |
| By: | Kangni Kpodar; Moataz El-Said; David Coady; Paulo A. Medas; David Newhouse; Robert Gillingham |
| Abstract: | With the recent jump in world oil prices, the issue of petroleum product pricing has become increasingly important in developing countries. Reflecting a reluctance of many governments to pass these price increases onto energy users, energy price subsidies are absorbing an increasing share of scarce public resources. This paper identifies the issues that need to be discussed when analyzing the fiscal and social costs of fuel subsidies. Using examples from analyses recently undertaken for five countries, it also identifies the magnitude of consumer subsidies and their fiscal implications. The results of the analysis show that-in all of these countries-energy subsidies have significant social and fiscal costs and are badly targeted. |
| Keywords: | Energy prices , subsidies , welfare distribution , household survey data , |
| Date: | 2006–11–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/247&r=afr |
| By: | Bekele Hundie (Humboldt University of Berlin, Institute of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences Division of Resource Economics, Luisenstr. 56, 10099, Berlin) |
| Abstract: | This study aims at explaining property right changes in selected areas of Afar region in Ethiopia. Based on primary and secondary data, explanations are given on the existing types of land use arrangements and how the traditional communal rights of pastoralists have been changing. Both communal rights and individualized rights exist the latter being introduced with the establishment of commercial farms. The state is identified as one driving force behind property right changes especially in one study site (Ambash), which is suitable for irrigated agriculture whereas its direct intervention is minimal in other sites. The coercive interventions started in 1960s have had detrimental impacts on the livelihoods of pastoral households. In addition to the state as a change agent, natural as well as socioeconomic challenges are important in explaining the current changes in land use arrangements. |
| Keywords: | property rights, institutional change, pastoralists, state intervention, Afar, Ethiopia |
| JEL: | Q15 P26 P48 |
| Date: | 2006–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hah:icardp:1406&r=afr |
| By: | Jean Bosco Ki; Salimata Faye; Bocar Faye |
| Abstract: | An appreciation of poverty that is as complete as possible constitutes an essential step in the analysis of the causes of poverty and in the formulation of policies to combat it. The monetary approach is not sufficient to capture the multiple aspects of poverty: a multidimensional analysis is also needed. The main objective of this research is therefore to construct a composite indicator of poverty using a basic needs approach. The analysis shows that the most widespread forms of poverty in Senegal are related to the vulnerability of human existence and to the lack of infrastructures, elements of comfort and equipment. We estimate the incidence of multidimensional poverty to reach 60%, compared to 48.5% for monetary poverty. Rural areas are particularly affected by non-monetary poverty whereas urban areas are affected more by monetary poverty in spite of the existence of human capital and basic infrastructures. The two types of poverty are quite strongly and positively correlated. |
| Keywords: | Multidimensional poverty, composite poverty indicator, composite index, basic needs approach, non-monetary poverty, multiple correspondence analysis |
| JEL: | I31 I32 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:pmmacr:2005-05&r=afr |
| By: | Thomson Fontaine; Jean-Claude Nachega |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates empirically the sources of aggregate output growth and the determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) in Niger between 1963 and 2003. A growth accounting analysis indicates that the erosion in output per capita over the sample period is due to the negative growth of both TFP and physical capital per capita. Sound macroeconomic policies, supported by official development assistance and structural reforms, are found to be key to raising TFP growth. |
| Keywords: | Niger , sources of growth , total factor productivity , cointegration , Economic growth , Niger , |
| Date: | 2006–09–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/208&r=afr |
| By: | Charalambos G. Tsangarides; Yasser Abdih |
| Abstract: | We apply the fundamentals equilibrium exchange rate (FEER) approach and the Johansen cointegration methodology to investigate the behavior of the real effective exchange rates of the two monetary unions of the CFA franc zone (CEMAC and WAEMU) vis-à-vis their long-run equilibrium paths. For both CEMAC and WAEMU, our results indicate that: (i) the fundamentals account for most of the fluctuation of the real effective exchange rates, with increases in the terms of trade, government consumption, and productivity improvements causing the exchange rate to appreciate, and increases in investment and openness leading to a depreciation; (ii) at end-2005 both the CEMAC and WAEMU real effective exchange rates were broadly in line with their long-run equilibrium values; and (iii) following a shock, reversion to equilibrium is twice as fast in WAEMU than in CEMAC. |
| Keywords: | Equilibrium real exchange rate , FEER , cointegration , WAEMU , CEMAC , |
| Date: | 2006–10–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/236&r=afr |
| By: | Valerie Kelly (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Janet Carpenter; Oumar Diall; Tom Easterling; Moctar Koné; Peter McCornick; Mike McGahuey |
| Abstract: | This report represents a synthesis of individual reports and notes prepared by each team member. The first three points in the terms of reference (TOR), provide an overview of current S&T research institutions and programs in Mali. Promising S&T products and needed support services are identified to encourage rapid uptake (4th item on the TOR). This discussion is divided into two sub-sections: one presents the key findings concerning crops and the other deals with livestock. These sections include the team’s recommendations for product- or subsector-based activities to be pursued in Mali by researchers, extension services, and public and private sector actors involved in different levels of the value-chain. Cross-cutting issues that affect technology development and uptake across multiple products and subsectors (5th item on the TOR) are analyzed. Key issues discussed are research and extension capacity; the role of natural resource and water management in stimulating agricultural productivity growth and reducing production risk; and downstream institutional constraints such as regulatory issues that limit uptake and dissemination of S&T products. Resolutions are discussed. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Mali science and technology research, research and extension |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:ml-promisam-rr-01e&r=afr |
| By: | Rafael N. Uaiene (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a quantitative assessment of the potential farmers’ benefits from increases in the productivity of the agricultural sector combined with the introduction of new marketing strategies. The analysis is based on farm-programming models designed to capture the important structural features of farm household decision making in Mozambique. The model explicitly incorporates the harvest income target and satisfaction of household caloric demand through home-consumption of own production before maximizing cash revenues through marketed goods. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, central Mozambique, new technologies, inventory credit, household farm model |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:mz-iiam-rr-02e&r=afr |
| By: | Andrew McKay; Scott Loveridge (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | A brief introduction to Rwanda, its recent history and agricultural policies provides context for the reader. This then leads into a brief discussion of rural livelihood strategies. Next is basic documentation of income and expenditure surveys conducted prior to the war (1990) and after the war (2000). Then patterns are compared in household strategies in a time before the disruptions to a time of relative calm after the major disruptions. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Rwanda, household income, nutrition |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:rw-fsrp-rr-14&r=afr |
| By: | S. McSween; T. Walker (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); V. Salegua; R. Pitoro |
| Abstract: | This paper begins with a brief description of the importance of cassava in Mozambique, the incidence and consequences of brown streak, and the scope of the NGO Save the Children/U.S. program to propagate brown streak tolerant cassava planting material that is largely responsible for the dissemination of Nikwaha. Benefits are discussed extensively; a reasonable and conservative estimate of the per plant benefits of Nikwaha is the key parameter in the analysis. The early acceptance of Nikwaha is reviewed, and its diffusion over time is projected. The intervention is cast as a project and is appraised in the setting of a cost-benefit analysis. In the conclusions, we examine the limitations of our calculation on economic impact, identify areas for research, evaluate the prospects for more investment in extension, and draw lessons from Save the Children’s Nikwaha experience. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, coastal Mozambique, cassava brown streak disease, Nikwaha |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:mz-iiam-rr-01e&r=afr |
| By: | Rzigui, Lotfi |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate the role of openness and external shock transmission affecting Tunisian economy. The paper proposes a new econometric methodology of fluctuations analysis in the objective to evaluate the effect of external shock based on trade on the dynamics of the GDP. The estimated common trend model reveals the role of external shock as well as technological shock in variation of economic activity. Our results are added to criticisms addressed to RBC model of first generation and show the role of external shock, ignored a long time in the business cycle literature. |
| Keywords: | External shocks; technological shocks; common trend representation; variances decomposition |
| JEL: | F41 C32 E32 |
| Date: | 2005–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:630&r=afr |
| By: | Daniel Leigh; Moataz El-Said |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at the fiscal cost and distributional impact of implicit fuel price subsidies in Gabon, where fuel prices have remained largely unchanged since 2002. Using estimated implicit import parity prices, we evaluate the total fiscal cost of the subsidies at 3.2 percent of non-oil GDP in 2005-more than total public health expenditures. We also analyze the distribution of the subsidies using household survey data and find that the bulk of the subsidies benefit higher-income households. Finally, we suggest use of a number of existing programs to provide a more targeted and cost-effective means of protecting the real incomes of lower-income households from the effects of energy price increases. |
| Keywords: | Fuel-price subsidies , Gabon , income distribution , |
| Date: | 2006–10–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/243&r=afr |
| By: | Daniel Leigh; Jan-Peter Olters |
| Abstract: | While models based on Friedman's (1957) permanent-income hypothesis can provide oilproducing countries with long-run fiscal targets, they usually abstract from short-run costs associated with consolidation. This paper proposes a model that takes such adjustment costs (or "habits") into account. Further operational realism is added by permitting differential interest rates on sovereign debt and financial assets. The approach is applied to Gabon, where oil reserves are expected to be exhausted in 30 years. The results suggest that Gabon's current fiscal-policy stance cannot be maintained, while the presence of habits justifies smoothing the bulk of the adjustment toward the sustainable level over three to five years. |
| Keywords: | Sustainable fiscal policy , habit formation , permanent-income hypothesis , Gabon , Fiscal policy , Gabon , Income , Investment , Economic models , |
| Date: | 2006–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/193&r=afr |