Economics of Human Migration http://lists.repec.org/mailman/listinfo/nep-mig Economics of Human Migration 2026-03-02 The Selection of Recent High-Skilled Immigrants to Canada https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsi:cjpcha:06&r=&r=mig We study economic integration, intentions, and selection using a new survey of recent high-skilled immigrants to Canada (arrivals 2015–2025), linked to native-conditional earnings percentile ranks. We document five main results. First, high-skilled immigrants experience large earnings gains from migration, with average earnings roughly doubling within one year of arrival. Second, entry status strongly predicts early outcomes: immigrants on closed work permits outperform direct permanent residents, while students and open-permit entrants start lower, with students catching up faster. Third, nonpermanent residents do not, on average, integrate faster than permanent residents relative to natives, except for former students. Fourth, intentions to stay are more closely related to earnings growth than to income levels. Fifth, reweighting current selection criteria to predict earnings improves expected outcomes and shifts selection toward high-performing non-permanent residents, particularly those on closed permits. Xavier Dufour-Simard Jean-François Gauthier Pierre-Carl Michaud immigration, temporary immigrants, selection, integration. 2026 Brain drain or brain gain? Evidence from a developing country https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-05-25&r=&r=mig We contribute to the economic literature by addressing a historical concern regarding the international migration of highly skilled workers, specifically, researchers holding a doctorate degree. We analyze whether a developing country such as Uruguay experiences brain gain or brain drain by exploring a theoretical channel through which a country can benefit from emigration: return migration. By exploiting a novel database, we build on previous literature and account for endogeneity issues due to selectivity biases that are likely to arise due to individuals’ multiple migration’ and occupational choices. Our findings stress that the largest gains from migration are accrued to the migrants themselves. Uruguayan emigrants obtain higher labor income, increases in their productivity, and have a more heterogeneous network in terms of co-authorships, relatively more from foreign institutions and relatively less from Uruguayan ones. Therefore, the country could benefit from emigration if policies fostering international collaboration between Uruguayan researchers are implemented. Luciana Méndez Errico Mariana Rodríguez Vivas brain drain, brain gain, developing country, migration, human capital, occupational choice 2025-02 From Moderates to Extremes: How Immigration Polarizes American Politics https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12377&r=&r=mig We provide causal evidence that immigration has contributed to the polarization of American politics. Using an ancestry-based shift-share instrument, we study immigration flows into U.S. counties between 1992 and 2016. Counties exposed to larger immigrant inflows become more polarized both in campaign contributions and in political representation: donors increasingly support ideologically extreme candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives, and the candidates who win office are themselves further from the ideological center. These effects are most pronounced in primary elections, where moderate Democrats are more likely to lose and conservative Republicans more likely to win in counties with higher immigration inflows. The rightward shift is strongest in occupations with high immigrant shares but limited interpersonal contact, suggesting that exposure without interaction amplifies perceived threat. We complement these results with original survey evidence that sheds light on the underlying mechanisms. Liberals and conservatives differ less in their economic assessments of immigration than in their cultural interpretations: liberals stress diversity and opportunity, whereas conservatives emphasize risk and social cohesion. Together, these findings indicate that immigration reshapes American politics through the joint forces of salience and contact – heightening polarization where immigrants are visible but unfamiliar, and attenuating it where interaction is routine. Johannes Matzat Axel Dreher Sarah Langlotz Christopher Parsons migration, polarization, political ideology, United States 2026 Beyond occupational sorting: How skills shape task allocation and immigrant disadvantage https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:271&r=&r=mig Immigrants across Europe earn less and work in lower-quality jobs than natives, but the mechanisms underlying these disparities remain poorly understood. This paper asks whether immigrant disadvantage reflects barriers to accessing good jobs or skill deficits that persist even within similar positions. Using PIAAC Cycle 2 data (2018-2023) for eight European countries, we compare immigrants and natives working in the same occupation-industry cells and performing the same types of tasks. We find that immigrants score 35 to 40 points lower in literacy and numeracy than natives overall, with 70 to 75 percent of this gap persisting within jobs. Immigrants also perform fewer cognitively demanding tasks than natives in similar jobs. However, these task differences disappear entirely once we account for within-job skill gaps, while manual task use shows no immigrant-native differences at all. The evidence points to a skill-mediated mechanism immigrants perform fewer complex tasks because they have lower cognitive proficiency, not because employers restrict their access to such work. This finding redirects policy attention from workplace discrimination toward skill development and credential recognition as the key margins for improving immigrant labour market integration. Marina Tverdostup Dora Walter Immigration; cognitive skills; job tasks; skill mismatch; labour market integration; PIAAC 2026-02 Labour market integration of Ukrainian refugees in Italy https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp77&r=&r=mig The full-scale invasion of Ukraine has induced a large influx of refugees from Ukraine to the European Union (EU), becoming the largest humanitarian crisis in Europe since the World War II. Despite a growing interest in the topic, little is known about Ukrainian refugees’ skills and their economic integration in the hosting countries. This paper provides novel evidence on this topic by analysing employment patterns and skills of displaced Ukrainians in Italy. Using primary data, our results show that previous employment and proficiency in Italian are essential for refugees’ current employment status. Despite their high educational attainment, professional downgrading seems to be widespread as refugees with tertiary education perceive themselves as overqualified for their jobs. Moreover, regional context, namely the presence of Ukrainian immigrant community, also plays a role in refugees’ employment outcomes and job-related perceptions. Our findings underscore the importance of skill recognition and language training in facilitating economic integration of refugees. Alessandra Faggian Alessandra Michelangeli Kateryna Tkach forced migration; labour market inclusion; skill profiles; human capital; displaced persons 2026-02 Political Ideologies, Redistribution and Local (Mis-)Perceptions of Migrant Stocks and Flows https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12390&r=&r=mig Do factual immigration updates shift societal concerns across political ideologies? Conducting an online experiment in the lead-up to the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, respondents provided local immigrant stock and flow estimates before being randomized to receive realistic information on stocks or flows, framed as constant or rising. Most respondents overestimate stocks and flows, with asymmetries emerging across ideologies. Information treatments lower redistribution and tax concerns by 5.4 percentage points on average. Immigration attitudes remain unchanged. Liberals overestimate stocks most, responding to stock treatments. Conservatives overstate flows more, responding to flow information. This pattern is consistent with motivated reasoning: identity-linked immigration views are resistant to correction, while redistribution concerns are elastic to facts when information targets the migration dimension most salient to each ideology. Sarah Langlotz Johannes Matzat Axel Dreher Christopher Parsons migrant stocks, migrant flows, information, political ideology, United States 2026 Entrepreneurial Coaching and Migration Intentions: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial in Senegal https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12486&r=&r=mig This paper investigates the impact of a one-week entrepreneurial coaching program on overall and irregular migration intentions among young adults in the Dakar metropolitan area, Senegal. Using a randomized controlled trial implemented in partnership with an entrepreneurship training center in Dakar, we estimate treatment effects by comparing baseline and follow-up outcomes and address partial compliance using instrumental-variable methods. We find that participation in entrepreneurial coaching reduces emigration intentions by 12–20%, with effects concentrated among individuals connected to the labor market. The program indirectly reduces intended irregular migration by encouraging some individuals to remain in Senegal. We do not find that participation affected the migration mode of those who still intend to migrate. Overall, our findings provide experimental evidence from Senegal that entrepreneurship-based active labor market policies can shape migration aspirations by strengthening local economic attachment among working youth. Michel Beine Arnaud Bourgain Elisabeth Kempter Melissa Tornari migration intention, migration deterrence, randomized experiment, entrepreneurship, irregular migration, Sub-saharan Africa 2026 Bad neighbors?: How massive migration reshapes political attitudes https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:022250&r=&r=mig How does a sudden, large-scale inflow of migrants reshape the political attitudes of locals? This paper uses a shift-share design that exploits exogenous variation in arrivals to estimate the effects of Venezuelan migration on political attitudes in Colombia between 2013 and 2019. The results suggest that exposure to the migration shock reduces locals’ support for redistribution, shifts their political ideology to the right, and weakens their support for elections by popular vote. A mediation analysis suggests that negative stereotypes about migrants and other migration-related concerns, including perceived labor market competition, security concerns, and concerns about migrants’ overuse of welfare programs, contribute to explain the decrease in the support for redistribution by increasing in-group identification sentiments among locals. The decrease in the support for elections by popular vote appears to be consistent with locals having less confidence on elections due to doubts about whether elected rulers can ensure an adequate provision of welfare services and maintain public order after the massive migration shock. Finally, the propensity of locals to adhere to anti-left narratives is a key driver of these shifts in political attitudes, including the rightward shift in ideology, which highlights the importance of the associations between the left-wing ideology and the Venezuelan regime in this setting. Juan Diego Valencia Migration, Colombia, Political Attitudes, Sequential G-Estimation 2026-02 Lessons Learned from Projects Linking Green-Skilled Training and Migration https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:378&r=&r=mig This paper examines six projects that link green-skilled training with international labour migration, looking at lessons learned in terms of design, implementation, and scale. Drawing on a literature review, stakeholder interviews, and a roundtable of experts, it identifies five factors crucial to success: political and financial buy-in; strong multi-stakeholder collaboration embedded in the project structure; private-sector engagement; effective skills mapping and training; and support for migrant workers. Public-funded pilot projects dominated the landscape, with emerging private-sector innovations offering scalable models. Projects enhanced institutional capacity; built trust foundational for working relationships between countries and institutions; and demonstrated the potential for how linking training and migration can effectively expand the global stock of green-skilled workers while supporting equitable development. However, complex governance, financing challenges, subsequent size-limited project structures, and fluctuating employer demand continue to constrain scale. The paper concludes with practical recommendations for designing sustainable partnerships that balance labour needs, development objectives, and green transition goals across countries of origin and destination. Shona Warren Nicole Pagan Helen Dempster 2026-02-19 A quarter century of subnational working-age population change in New Zealand: Contributions of migration and cohort turnover 1998-2023 https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:26/02&r=&r=mig This paper quantifies the demographic drivers of change in New Zealand's working-age population (ages 15-6)) across 66 territorial authorities and 21 Auckland local boards over 1998-2023. Using Stats NZ population estimates and subnational mortality data, we implement a demographic accounting decomposition in five-year intervals that separates working-age population change into cohort turnover (entries aged 15-19 minus exits aged 60-64), working-age deaths, and residual net migration. Nationally, the working-age population expanded in every period, but the dominant component shifted. Positive cohort turnover accounted for most growth through 2013, whereas residual net migration contributed over 90% of growth after 2013. Subnationally, negative cohort turnover spread from being experienced by no areas in 1998-2003, to a substantial minority of areas by 2018-2023. The number of areas with declining working-age populations fluctuated substantially from one period to the next. A four-category typology and analysis of residual migration offset ratios for areas with negative cohort turnover shows that positive migration offsets negative cohort turnover in some places but not consistently, leaving local labour-supply trajectories increasingly contingent on volatile and spatially uneven migration. Michael P. Cameron Courtenay Baker Working-age population; Cohort turnover; Migration; Population ageing; New Zealand 2026-02-18 Migration Reform and Fertility: Evidence from Rural China https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1718&r=&r=mig How do institutional barriers to migration shape fertility in developing economies? We analyze the staggered removal of institutional barriers to rural-to-urban migration across 283 Chinese cities. We find that reducing these frictions led to a significant and persistent increase in fertility in sending rural communities. The average treatment effect is 0.011 newborns per household per year, representing approximately one-third of the sample mean. To interpret this result, we develop a unified household model endogenizing fertility and partial migration. The model identifies a positive income effect (higher expected lifetime earnings) that dominates the substitution effect (opportunity cost of time). Empirically, we show that the fertility response is concentrated in households with available grandparents and prior migration experience. This suggests that informal childcare provision is critical in neutralizing the time costs of migration, allowing rural households to realize the fertility gains from improved economic opportunities. These findings challenge the view that urbanization necessarily reduces fertility, highlighting instead how mobility restrictions acted to suppress fertility. Jin, Wenchao Jin, Zhangfeng migration barriers, fertility, China 2026 Linking Labor Mobility and Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:380&r=&r=mig This paper explores how linking international labor mobility and technical and vocational education and training (TVET) can enhance the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and developmental impact of donor and government investments in skills development. In the context of shrinking global aid budgets and persistent skills shortages in low-, middle-, and high-income countries, we argue that linking labor mobility and TVET (particularly in skills relevant to the green transition) can deliver a “triple win”: improving employment outcomes for trainees; filling critical labor gaps in countries of destination; and strengthening TVET institutions in countries of origin. Drawing on evidence from existing initiatives, this paper identifies two broad, non-mutually exclusive, approaches for linking labor mobility and TVET: (1) aligning training content and quality with employer needs; and (2) recognizing qualifications or certifications, through mechanisms such as mutual recognition processes and international accreditation. Complementary measures—including language training, cultural orientation, and sustainable financing models—are also examined. This paper discusses how this linkage can increase TVET placement rates, improve institutional quality, attract investment, and expand opportunities for disadvantaged groups, including refugees. It also outlines how best to leverage these impacts by working with existing high-performing TVET providers to build successful, sustainable talent pipelines as a pathway to scale. Helen Dempster Marcel Ricou 2026-02-24