Economic Geography http://lists.repec.org/mailman/listinfo/nep-geo Economic Geography 2026-05-11 Population–employment dynamics in the European Union: Does innovation lead or follow? https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2026/08&r=&r=geo This article examines the interaction between innovation and employment and population dynamics through the development of a system of simultaneous equations. The model is applied to a panel dataset of 271 European NUTS-2 regions. The results reveal strong bidirectional feedbacks between innovation and employment, while population dynamics operate indirectly through employment rather than exerting a direct effect on innovation. Innovation is found to follow jobs rather than people, indicating that the concentration of economic activity and labor interactions, not demographic size per se, constitute the primary drivers of regional innovative capacity. These mutually reinforcing dynamics give rise to virtuous and vicious cycles that contribute to persistent regional disparities. By opening the black box of employment–population–innovation interactions, the paper provides a structural foundation for designing more effective population, innovation, and employment policies. In particular, the analysis demonstrates that policies targeting a single dimension, whether business climate, quality of life, or innovation support, are unlikely to succeed in isolation. Luisa Alamá-Sabater Joan Crespo Miguel Ángel Márquez Emili Tortosa-Ausina innovation, population-employment dynamics, European Union, NUTS2, spatial effects, territorial development 2026 Uneven Resilience and Recovery During War: Municipality-Level Evidence from Ukraine https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mib:wpaper:572&r=&r=geo The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caused an unprecedented economic shock, yet reliable measures of economic activity during wartime are scarce, particularly at the subnational level. Official GDP statistics are available only at the national level and with substantial delays, while no systematic estimates exist on how the war affected economic activity across regions. This paper provides the first subnational assessment of the economic impact of the war in Ukraine by exploiting satellite-based nighttime light data as a proxy for local economic activity. Using annual VIIRS Day/Night Band data for the period 2014–2024, we analyze changes in nighttime light intensity across Ukrainian urban areas and relate them to geographic exposure to armed conflict events recorded by ACLED. We estimate two-way fixed effects models that exploit within-urban area variation over time and spatial variation in distance to conflict locations following the escalation of the war in 2022. At the national level, we document a strong correlation between official GDP and nighttime lights, supporting the validity of the proxy in the Ukrainian context. Our results reveal a pronounced spatial gradient in wartime economic disruption. Urban areas located closer to conflict events experienced significantly larger declines in nighttime light intensity after 2022, while economic losses attenuate sharply with distance and largely dissipate beyond approximately 50 kilometers. These findings highlight the highly localized nature of wartime economic damage and underscore the value of satellite data for measuring economic activity in settings characterized by data gaps, conflict, and institutional disruption. Alessandra Michelangeli Umut Türk Nighttime lights; Armed conflict; Economic activity; Ukraine; War 2026-03 Total Fertility Rates and Urban Agglomeration in Asia https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2026-14&r=&r=geo This study examines the relationship between total fertility rates and urban agglomeration in Asia through a comparative descriptive analysis of subnational data from Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand. Against the backdrop of a nationwide decline in fertility, the study asks whether low fertility is systematically associated with population density within Asian countries and region, rather than constituting a national-level demographic outcome solely. The empirical analysis is based on explanatory spatial data analysis, combining maps of population density and total fertility rates. The empirical analysis finds that, within each country examined, fertility tends to be lower in denser and more urbanized areas, particularly in major metropolitan areas such as Tokyo, Seoul, Taipei, Ho Chi Minh City, Jakarta, and Bangkok. Although the strength and dispersion of the relationship vary across national contexts, a broadly similar negative density–fertility gradient is observed throughout Asia. These findings suggest that low fertility in Asia should be understood not only as a demographic transition, but also as a spatial phenomenon closely associated with urban concentration. Keisuke Kondo Total fertility rate; Population density; Urban agglomeration; Population decline 2026-03 Urban densification to support climate adaptation: Balancing costs and agglomeration benefits in the Netherlands https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250073&r=&r=geo Where should we build new housing under growing climate hazards? This paper develops a framework that balances the economic benefits of density against the geographically varying costs of climate adaptation. We apply it to the Netherlands, where demand for new housing is high, but much of the land lies in floodplains or subsidence-prone areas. Agglomeration benefits are proxied by land values, while adaptation costs are derived from engineering estimates of flood protection and soil subsidence. Combining these data allows us to map spatial trade-offs and identify where development remains welfare-enhancing. Our findings show that dense cities continue to generate strong net welfare gains, even in places with high costs, while low-density settlements generate a welfare loss for new housing. We identify density thresholds above which housing development becomes feasible. Many medium-sized Dutch cities already exceed these thresholds, making densification more beneficial than peripheral expansion. Climate adaptation thus strengthens—rather than weakens—the case for urban densification. Yashvant Premchand Peter Mulder Housing development, Climate adaptation, Agglomeration effects, Land values, Urban density 2025-12-18 Marshall meets Bartik: Revisiting the mysteries of the trade https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.26457&r=&r=geo We identify a causal effect of top inventor inflows on the patent productivity of local inventors by combining the idea-generating process described by Marshall (1890) with the Bartik (1991) instruments involving the state taxes and commuting zone characteristics of the United States. We find that local productivity gains go beyond organizational boundaries and co-inventor relationships, which implies the partially nonexcludable good nature of knowledge in a spatial economy and pertains to the mysteries of the trade in the air. Our counterfactual experiment suggests that the spatial distribution of inventive activity is substantially distorted by the presence of state tax differences. Yasusada Murata Ryo Nakajima 2026-04 Gridded-labour market data in Ghana using remote sensing and random forest https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:995694369302676&r=&r=geo This study presents the first high-resolution (0.005°) gridded labor market data, generated by downscaling district-level census data for Ghana using random forest algorithms and remote sensing. It addresses the lack of spatially disaggregated labor market data by mapping 17 employment categories—including age, gender, skills, status, sectors, unemployment, and NEET. Auxiliary data (64 variables) such as land cover, nighttime lights, infrastructure, and points of interest are integrated to capture demographic, economic, and participation factors. The model achieves high accuracy (R2 > 90% for most categories) and reveals significant spatial heterogeneity, with employment rates ranging from 10% to 98% across pixels. Results highlight urban-rural and North-South divides, as well as sectoral concentrations. Variable importance analysis underscores the role of built-up areas, nighttime light, road density, and vegetation health in predicting employment patterns, with specificity across different employment categories. The methodology advances beyond traditional GDP or population gridding by incorporating labor market complexity. Findings demonstrate the potential of machine learning and geospatial data to enhance socio-economic mapping in data-scarce contexts. Jin, Yan, Charpe, Matthieu, Mei, Yang, Li, Zeshuo, labour market analysis, mapping, human geography, information technology. 2026 Private Hochschulcampi stärken die lokale Wirtschaft: Insbesondere in weniger städtischen Regionen https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewpbs:340876&r=&r=geo Die regionale Wirtschaftsentwicklung bleibt in Deutschland eine zentrale politische Herausforderung. Hochschulen werden häufig als mögliche Treiber lokaler Entwicklung angesehen. Für private Hochschulcampi war die empirische Evidenz bislang jedoch begrenzt. Neue Erkenntnisse für Deutschland zeigen, dass private Hochschulcampi die lokale wirtschaftliche Aktivität steigern können. Der geschätzte Effekt entspricht einem Anstieg des lokalen Bruttoinlandsprodukts um rund 1, 5 bis 2, 1 Prozent. Gleichzeitig sind die Effekte regional nicht einheitlich. Sie fallen insbesondere in intermediären und ländlicheren Regionen deutlich aus, während die Evidenz für stärker städtisch geprägte Regionen begrenzt ist. Die Effekte bauen sich zudem nur allmählich über die Zeit auf und werden erst nach mehr als zehn Jahren statistisch signifikant. Darüber hinaus gibt es keine Hinweise auf messbare Effekte in benachbarten Regionen. Insgesamt legen die Ergebnisse nahe, dass private Hochschulcampi zur Regionalentwicklung beitragen können - insbesondere außerhalb der am stärksten städtisch geprägten Teile des Landes und über längere Zeithorizonte hinweg. Krieger, Bastian Schubert, Torben 2026