Environmental Economics http://lists.repec.org/mailman/listinfo/nep-env Environmental Economics 2026-06-22 Are carbon tariffs climate policy? https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35307&r=&r=env Carbon import tariffs, traditionally considered a complement to domestic climate policy, are increasingly proposed as standalone policies. We build a quantitative trade model to compare U.S. carbon tariffs with and without a domestic carbon tax, each applied to a set of carbon-intensive, trade-exposed sectors. We find three main results. First, a U.S. carbon tariff increases U.S. emissions, lowers foreign emissions, and on net achieves half the global emissions reductions of the combined policy, which lowers both U.S. and foreign emissions. Second, both approaches increase U.S. GDP and welfare, but the combined policy has a larger effect due to terms of trade improvements. Third, global emissions reductions from multilateral tariff-only agreements are modest and do not increase monotonically with greater membership, whereas under combined policies they scale considerably with membership. Gregory Casey Kyle C. Meng Ivan Rudik 2026-06 A Climate Neutrality Strategy for Cyprus https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hel:greese:208&r=&r=env This paper presents the findings of our model-based study on the transition of Cyprus to a net-zero economy. A climate-neutral Cyprus will be characterised by almost complete replacement of fossil fuels by electricity and renewable sources, full utilisation of waste and use of renewable hydrogen in transport and heavy industry. This will require serious public and private investments, which however can be beneficial for the economy and society. Still, important challenges lie ahead that call for swift policy action. Apart from long-term planning that must start today, effective implementation of green policies is key. In this context, the paper also provides a background on behavioural barriers that should be overcome, as the lack in understanding human behaviour is at the heart of the sustainability challenge. Drawing from our recent work for Cypriot authorities, we highlight directions in which policy-making in Cyprus can be enhanced, with special attention to energy poverty. Theodoros Zachariadis Constantinos Taliotis Melina Moleskis Pantelis Solomou behavioural insights; carbon neutrality; climate policy; energy poverty; net-zero economy 2025-06 The EU ETS Stimulated Innovation Without Productivity Losses https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:181&r=&r=env Abstract TThe EU ETS is the main climate policy instrument in the European Union. By putting a price on carbon emissions, it aims to reduce GHG emissions while encouraging firms to adopt cleaner technologies. This policy brief summarizes the results from the recent paper examining the effects of the EU ETS on productivity, innovation activity, and environmental performance among Finnish energy-intensive firms. The analysis is based on various firm-level datasets covering the period 2000–2020. The data include financial statements, emissions, energy use, innovation activity, and R&D expenditure. Causal effects are identified by exploiting the staggered difference-in-difference method. The results show that the EU ETS did not reduce firms’ productivity or R&D expenditure. At the same time, regulated firms became significantly more likely to introduce both process and product innovations. In addition, energy intensity declined by approximately ten percent following regulation. These findings suggest that carbon pricing can stimulate technological adaptation and innovation without generating measurable costs on firm competitiveness. The innovation effects appear to arise primarily through technology adoption and process improvements rather than increased R&D inputs. Overall, the results support the use of climate policies as an effective tool for promoting the green transition while maintaining economic performance. Maczulskij, Terhi EU ETS, Innovation, Productivity 2026-06-08 Public Sector Sustainability Accounting and Reporting: An All-Ireland Perspective https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qmsrps:202606&r=&r=env Failure to act in response to climate change is the most critical worldwide risk and governments around the world are grappling with significant climate-related challenges. Given the financial impact climate-related risks and opportunities may have, integrating accounting information systems with environmental data can facilitate making transparent the consequences of climate change and enable governments to make climate-informed decisions (Task Force on Climaterelated Financial Disclosures, 2020). For example, with the urgent need to address climate, social and governance challenges, the European Commission (2018) has proposed an ambitious agenda to develop integrated reforms including non-financial reporting and the identification and disclosure of environmental, social and governance risks. With regards to sustainability, policy makers, at multi-lateral and national levels, have focused on the corporate sector, despite public sector organisations being significant contributors to most nations' economies and having a substantial environmental effect. Moreover, research into public sector sustainability accounting and reporting (SAR) is scarce. This research addresses this gap by exploring the current state of SAR in the Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland public sectors, together with the challenges and opportunities for such reporting. It also identifies gaps in SAR and, drawing on global best practice, makes recommendations for improvements. Connolly, Ciaran Lawless, Paul Reeves, Eoin Stewart, Elaine 2026 Corporate Governance and Sustainability Disclosure: An Empirical Analysis of Environmental Reporting Practices https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129204&r=&r=env The rising worldwide concerns about climate change, environmental degradation, and sustainability issues have made environmental reporting more vital for corporate reporting systems. The study investigates how firm size and profitability, and corporate governance practices, impact the sustainability accounting and environmental reporting of listed companies. Panel data has been collected from 40 listed PSX companies from 2018 to 2025. The study applies panel regression to estimate the impact of independent variables on the dependent variable. The results show that organizational size hurts environmental reporting, because organizational size does not significantly determine sustainability disclosure practices. Environmental reporting shows a positive relationship with profitability, which remains statistically unproven because financial performance does not account for all differences in environmental disclosure. Environmental reporting shows a positive relationship with corporate governance, which holds statistical significance because governance structures play a vital role in promoting transparency and accountability, as well as sustainability disclosure. The study found that corporate governance stands as the primary element that determines environmental reporting for all companies in the selected sample. The findings show that strong governance mechanisms serve as a foundation that enables organizations to achieve higher levels of environmental transparency while maintaining their corporate accountability standards. The study expands the existing literature on sustainability accounting by delivering empirical results that explain the factors that determine environmental reporting while giving policymakers, regulators, and corporate executives valuable information about how to enhance sustainability disclosure practices. Javed, Harris Audi, Marc Ali, Amjad Environmental Reporting, Corporate Governance, Sustainability Accounting, Firm Performance 2026 Creating a taro yield emulator and using it to study climate change impact on taro in Papua New Guinea https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pngfwp:182470&r=&r=env This paper develops a taro yield emulator to assess climate change impacts on taro production in Papua New Guinea (PNG). The emulator uses a fixed-effects polynomial regression trained on DSSAT simulations to capture non-linear, stage-specific responses of taro yields to rainfall and temperature. Historical MSWX weather and future climates from CMIP6/ISIMIP3b and a large MIT-IGSM/AgERA5 sample are used to drive the emulator and assess changes in average yields, yield variability, and the frequency of low-yield years across PNG. Our analysis shows that taro appears to be sensitive to both low- and high-rainfall levels during particular phases of growth and is sensitive to heat during particular phases, as well. Our visit to farmers fields in the Markham Valley along with discussions with experts at GrowPNG in Lae, NARI, and PNG University of Technology in Lae alerted us to the fact that drought was a serious problem for taro, but the model revealed the additional issues with high rainfall and high temperature, along with the additional information about the months that were particularly important for determining the degree of damage that adverse weather might do to yields. National-average yield changes by mid-century under high-emissions scenarios are projected to be small based on the median projections across climate models, however one of the climate models projects a much larger temperature increase relative to the other models, and for that climate model, the yield reduction is around 9% on average. Braide, Tamunotonye M. Thomas, Timothy S. Robertson, Richard D. taro; crop yield; climate change; impact; climate change impacts; crop modelling; fixed costs; regression analysis; Papua New Guinea; Oceania 2026-04-13 Regional Economic Impacts and Emission Responses under Solar Radiation Modification https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35304&r=&r=env Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) has been proposed as a potential tool to limit increases in global or regional temperatures caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. While previous research has extensively examined the climate system’s response to various SRM strategies, as well as their aggregate economic consequences, the regional distribution of economic impacts has received less attention. In this study, we use NorESM2–DIAM—an Earth System Model coupled to a high-resolution integrated assessment model—to assess the economic impacts, measured in GDP per capita, in an idealised SRM scenario where incoming solar radiation is reduced by 1%. Our results suggest that, relative to a baseline without SRM, most countries experience economic gains under SRM, with only a few countries facing negative impacts. Low-income countries tend to see the largest benefits, reducing global economic inequality relative to the baseline. However, reduced damages and lower inequality are accompanied by higher emissions under SRM, potentially leading to additional adverse effects not captured here. These findings highlight potential trade-offs between economic benefits, reduced inequality, and increased emissions relevant for SRM governance. Jenny Bjordal Evelien van Dijk Henri Cornec Anthony A. Smith Jr. Trude Storelvmo 2026-06 From forecasts to action: Helping before disasters strike https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwiimp:341183&r=&r=env Recent impact evaluation shows that anticipatory humanitarian action based on meteorological forecasts helps vulnerable rural households cope with weather disasters. As climate change increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, humanitarian needs are rising. Anticipatory humanitarian action uses risk forecasts to provide assistance before disasters fully unfold. RWI researchers examined the impact of such anticipatory action in Mongolia, where extreme winter conditions lead to high livestock mortality and threaten the livelihoods of affected households. The study shows that poorer households benefit from the transfers in terms of livestock assets and food consumption. It also highlights the challenges of rigorously evaluating anticipatory action. Mogge, Lukas Roeckert, Julian Krähnert, Kati 2026 Does the uptake of multiple climate smart agriculture practices enhance household savings, food security and household vulnerability to climate change? Insights from Zimbabwe https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:ersawp:44&r=&r=env Climate change and variability poses a significant hindrance on agricultural productivity. The adverse effects are particularly concerning in many African countries that rely more on rainfed subsistence agriculture for livelihood. The promotion of climate smart agriculture technologies as a pathway to enhancing food security, farmer’s welfare, and providing climate adaptation and mitigation benefits is one of the several interventions aimed at improving agricultural productivity. However, there has been a dearth of evidence on the determinants of adoption of climate smart agriculture practices as well as the impact of climate smart agriculture practices on food security and household welfare. This paper contributes to this knowledge gap by using the probit model to explore the drivers of uptake of climate smart agriculture practices and the inverse probability weighting regression model and the instrumental variable approach to assess the impact on food security and household savings and household vulnerability. We find that the adoption of climate smart agriculture practices among smallholder farmers is influenced by land ownership, climatic variables, land terrain, and household sociodemographic characteristics. The study further revealed that adoption of climate smart agriculture practices leads to reduction in household savings and household vulnerability but leads to improved food security. The findings suggest the need to promote climate smart agriculture practices aimed at livestock management, enhanced agricultural extension work and reduced resource constraints that inhibit farmer’s capacity to adopt complementary practices among others. Boscow Okumu Herbert Ntuli Edwin Muchapondwa Gibson Mudiriza Alfred Mukong Climate smart, food security, Savings, Vulnerability 2024-09 Embracing carbon uncertainty in portfolio construction https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1362&r=&r=env We propose a framework for constructing fixed-income portfolios of sovereign bonds that integrates financial and environmental considerations. Central to our approach is the introduction of carbon returns, a concept analogous to financial returns, modeled as random variables to capture the inherent uncertainty of future carbon emissions. Based on the financial and carbon return profiles of individual countries' sovereign bonds, we employ an algorithm inspired by Hierarchical Risk Parity (HRP) to construct portfolios that balance each country's contribution to the portfolio's tail risk, as measured by expected shortfall, of financial and carbon returns. Focusing on developed market sovereign bonds, our results demonstrate that it is possible to design portfolios that effectively align decarbonization objectives with financial performance, both in-sample and out-of-sample, while accommodating diverse investor preferences. Dora Xia Omar Zulaica carbon footprints, sovereign debt, portfolio optimization, risk parity 2026-06 Climate Change and the Decline of Labor Share https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26143&r=&r=env We study the impact of climate change on the labor share. Combining newly constructed US county-industry-level labor shares with climate variables, we find that extreme temperatures reduce the labor share, with stronger effects in industries with higher climate exposure and automation potential. Extreme temperatures also accelerate robot adoption. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the within-county-industry response to climate change accounts for 15% of the decline in labor share since 2000. Over the 20th century, however, the opposing effects of decreased cold days and increased hot days offset each other, consistent with the historical stability of labor share. Xincheng Qiu Masahiro Yoshida climate change, labor share, automation 2026-05 Natural resources co-management, green transition and divided societies - Zones of agreement in the Cyprus case using a conjoint survey experiment https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hel:greese:213&r=&r=env The paper presents key findings from a public opinion survey and conjoint experiment with a representative sample of 800 Greek Cypriots, examining public attitudes toward natural resources co-management in the Eastern Mediterranean and the green transition in the context of the Cyprus Problem. It examines views on climate change, joint energy projects, political arrangements, and possible confidence building measures (CBMs) that could build trust between the two communities. The major finding of this research is that it identified potential peace packages accepted by a majority of the Greek Cypriot voters that include Cyprus-Turkey co-operation as part of a comprehensive settlement and wider regional co-operation on energy in the Eastern Mediterranean. Charis Psaltis Neophytos Loizides Andreas Michael Nikandros Ioannidis Edward Morgan Jones Laura Sudulich Cyprus, Cyprus Issue, Energy Cooperation, Eastern Mediterranean, Conjoint Experiment, Bizonal Bicommunal Federation 2025-11 Climate and Prehistoric Migration https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26144&r=&r=env What factors drove human migration before modern states, markets, and borders? We develop a framework of ecological sorting in which climate-specific subsistence knowledge depreciates with ecological distance. To test this, we use ancient DNA identity-by-descent segments to construct bilateral migration flows across Western Eurasia over the last 10, 000 years. We document four main findings. First, migration flows decline with differences in growing degree days, precipitation, and soil characteristics between origins and destinations. Second, the dimensions of climate that bind vary across subsistence systems: farmers exhibit strong thermal and soil matching, while pastoralists match most strongly on precipitation-consistent with differential ecological constraints and limiting factors. Third, periods of warming increase farmer expansion while cooling increases pastoral expansion in patterns that recover known archaeological migration episodes. Migration also acts as a margin of climate adaptation: populations exposed to temperature change move to destinations that partly offset the shift. Fourth, genetic flow predicts subsequent convergence in destination vegetation toward migrants' ecological profiles, consistent with migration shaping landscape change and the demic diffusion of subsistence practices. Peter Huybers Marco Tabellini Charles A. Taylor Francesco Toti migration, ancient DNA, prehistory, climate, ecology 2026-05 Carbon Emissions and Cost Efficiency in Manufacturing Firms: Evidence from Digital Transformation, Energy Efficiency, and Green Innovation Perspectives https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129216&r=&r=env This study reviews the relationship between carbon emissions and cost efficiency in manufacturing firms within the broader context of sustainable industrial transformation and increasing environmental pressures. The review synthesises contemporary theoretical and empirical literature published between 2020 and 2026, with particular emphasis on Scopus-indexed and Q1-ranked journal articles. The study examines the interaction between carbon emissions, operational efficiency, digital transformation, energy efficiency, and green innovation within manufacturing systems. The findings suggest that improvements in energy efficiency, technological innovation, and digital transformation can significantly reduce carbon emissions while simultaneously enhancing cost efficiency, productivity, and overall firm performance. Nevertheless, the empirical evidence remains mixed and highly context-dependent. Whereas several studies report substantial efficiency gains associated with low-carbon manufacturing practices and digital integration, others identify weak, conditional, or heterogeneous effects influenced by institutional quality, industrial structure, technological readiness, regulatory environments, and firm-specific capabilities. The review further reveals a strong geographical concentration within the literature, particularly the dominance of China-based manufacturing studies, with comparatively limited empirical evidence from African economies and other emerging industrial contexts. Moreover, most existing studies employ indirect indicators such as total factor productivity, ESG performance, or innovation output rather than direct measures of cost efficiency derived from frontier-based techniques such as Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA). The originality of this study lies in its integrated synthesis of carbon emissions and cost efficiency within a unified manufacturing framework, an area that remains fragmented in the existing literature. The study advances an innovative perspective by conceptualising environmental sustainability, digital transformation, and operational cost efficiency as interconnected dimensions of industrial competitiveness rather than isolated constructs. Its contribution to knowledge derives from identifying major theoretical inconsistencies, methodological limitations, and contextual gaps that constrain current understanding, particularly the limited evidence from emerging economies and the inadequate application of direct cost efficiency measurement approaches in manufacturing research. yeboah, samuel Manufacturing Firms; Digital Transformation; Energy Efficiency; Sustainable Manufacturing; Green Innovation; Industrial Productivity 2026-04-07 Catalysing climate resilience: an analysis of the UK’s strengths in the innovation of adaptation technologies and services https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138261&r=&r=env The UK is experiencing increasing impacts from climate change, including more frequent and severe floods, heatwaves and storms. It needs to prepare more for these impacts. It also needs to honour its pledge to support climate adaptation efforts in developing countries. The UK should maximise the opportunity from an increase in the demand for adaptation goods and services, including flood defences, climate-resilient building materials and crops, innovative insurance products and treatments for vector-borne diseases, both at home and globally. There is an economic, social and environmental imperative to scale up and innovate in adaptation-related goods and services, especially in those areas where the UK has an existing and potential comparative advantage Jameson, Daisy Croce, Raffaele Della Valero, Anna Read, Maxwell Serin, Esin 2026-05-14 Catastrophic weather events and (subsidised) crop insurance markets. Evidence from Italy https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129322&r=&r=env Catastrophic (CAT) weather events are rare and impactful, yet still poorly considered in ex-ante risk management policy interventions. Subsidised crop insurance schemes are not an exception, although the systemic nature of those risks has cascading effects that are reflected on the entire food systems and along the value chains. The Italian subsidised crop insurance market, and its dynamics vis-à-vis CAT events, including flood, drought, and frost, is an interesting case study. Insurance uptake and coverage increase after CAT shocks, signalling their value in strengthening farmers resilience to climate changes. The responsiveness is higher when coverage is predominant, with markedly heterogeneous patterns calling for deeper understanding of the trade-offs that are put in place by these policy instruments, central in the EU risk management strategy. Lamonaca, Emilia Maccarone, Irene Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano Agriculture; Climatic risk; Extreme event; Risk management; Subsidised insurance. 2026-05-29 The Effect of EU ETS on Firm Productivity and Innovation-related Activity https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:wpaper:139&r=&r=env Abstract This study examines the impact of the EU Emission Trading System on firms’ productivity and innovation behavior in the Finnish energy-intensive sector. Using unique administrative data on emissions and firm characteristics from 2000 onwards, the effect of the ETS is analyzed using staggered difference-in-difference design. The results show that while firms do not increase productivity or innovation inputs, those regulated are significantly more likely to introduce both process and product innovations. Additional findings suggest that the ETS effectively reduced energy intensity. Together the findings suggest that carbon pricing may stimulate technological adaptation and environmental improvements without generating measurable losses in productivity. Maczulskij, Terhi EU ETS, Innovation, Productivity 2026-06-08 Safeguarding macro-financial stability under carbon pricing and rapid energy transition https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138724&r=&r=env Although the case for a swift climate transition is clear, its macro-financial viability remains uncertain. To shed light on the macroeconomic and financial response to deep mitigation trajectories controlled by carbon pricing, we soft-link a process-based integrated assessment model (the World Induced Technical Change Hybrid, WITCH) to a macro-financial agent-based model (the Dystopian Schumpeter Meeting Keynes, DSK). The hybrid framework allows us to translate energy systems transformations into macro-financial outcomes at business cycle frequency. We find that rapid transitions induced by fast-growing carbon prices significantly impact unemployment, inflation, and income distribution. Stabilization policies reduce these economic fluctuations, though not completely so in Paris-compatible scenarios. Our paper emphasizes the need for coordinated climate and macroeconomic policy during decarbonization. Additionally, it showcases how model integration can lead to a better understanding of the economic implications of low-carbon futures. Fierro, Luca E. Reissl, Severin Lamperti, Francesco Campiglio, Emanuele Drouet, Laurent Emmerling, Johannes Kremer, Elise Tavoni, Massimo 2026-04-07 Industrial decarbonization in a fragmented world: carbon pricing with border adjustments using standardized values https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138672&r=&r=env The European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has the dual objective of preventing carbon leakage and encouraging adoption of low-carbon technologies abroad. Yet, pursuing both objectives with the same mechanism results in incomplete carbon leakage protection unless global carbon prices converge. As the current geopolitical situation makes rapid convergence seem unlikely, an extension of free allowance allocation is being discussed for affected sectors. This would, however, mute most carbon pricing incentives and reduce carbon pricing revenues. This paper argues that until progress on global carbon pricing is reached, the CBAM should be reformed to use standardized values rather than production-specific emission intensities for materials with complex value chains. With the reform, emission trading with free allowances at benchmark level continues to provide the carbon price and incentives for conventional producers. To close the carbon pricing gap, a standardized liability per ton of material is included, independent of production process or location. It can be subject to established border adjustments along the full value chain, including export relief. Such a reform would not create direct incentives for climate-friendly material production and carbon pricing in third countries but would ensure carbon pricing incentives along the domestic value chain and carbon pricing revenue to fund climate action. This would enhance investment stability, support industrial transformation, and address carbon leakage risks in a fragmented global policy landscape. Neuhoff, Karsten Sato, Misato Ballesteros, Fernanda Böhringer, Christoph Borghesi, Simone Cosbey, Aaron Deletombe, Thibault Felsmann, Balázs Ismer, Roland Johnston, Angus Linares, Pedro Matikainen, Sini Pauliuk, Stefan Pirlot, Alice Quirion, Philippe Rosendahl, Knut Einar Sniegocki, Aleksander van Asselt, Harro Zetterberg, Lars 2026-09-30 The Strait of Hormuz Crisis and Energy Subsidization https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:26-3&r=&r=env This study evaluates the impact of rising fossil fuel prices resulting from the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis (a war among the United States, Israel, and Iran) on the Japanese economy. It quantifies the effectiveness of government energy subsidy policies by considering the consistency between economic and environmental policies. Using a computable general equilibrium model to simulate a scenario where fossil fuel prices double, the consumer price index (CPI) increases by 3.5%, and households suffer a welfare loss of 11 trillion yen, while greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decrease by 5.8% (66 million t-CO2). Conversely, if providing a 20% energy subsidy reduces the CPI increase to 1.5%, the household welfare would appear to improve by 116 billion yen. However, the subsidies would worsen environmental outcomes by stimulating fossil fuel consumption, which would otherwise be reduced by price hikes, thereby increasing GHG emissions. This would lead to a deterioration in welfare, accounting for the environmental costs of GHG emissions. Subsidies for electricity and gas, whose markets are less distorted by indirect taxes than fossil fuel markets, are found to be counterproductive, worsening welfare even without considering environmental value. Nobuhiro Hosoe Oil crisis; fuel subsidy; greenhouse gas; computable general equilibrium model 2026-06 Cross-Cultural Differences in Perceptions of the Environmental Impact of Generative AI https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05630387&r=&r=env This study addresses a critical gap in the literature on sustainable information systems by empirically investigating how national culture shapes perceptions of the environmental impact of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI). Based on a survey of 434 university students from France, Portugal, the United States, and China, the research employs statistical analyses to test for significant cross-national differences. The results reveal pronounced disparities. For instance, while 70% of French respondents express a desire to know the carbon footprint of their AI queries, only 45% of Chinese respondents share this concern. Conversely, Portuguese (72%) and American (62%) students show significantly greater acceptance of environmental usage quotas than their French (41%) and Chinese (40%) counterparts. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) confirms that country of residence is a statistically significant predictor of environmental concern and attitudes toward regulatory measures. These findings challenge universalist "one-size-fits-all" approaches to digital sustainability policy. The study concludes that promoting sustainable AI on a global scale requires context-sensitive strategies aligned with local cultural values, institutional frameworks, and technological ecosystems. We contribute to the Green IS discourse by integrating cross-cultural theory with the emerging debate on "frugal AI." Jean-Éric Pelet Basma Taieb Said Aboubaker Ettis Yihan Wang Álvaro Rocha Digital Sobriety, Frugal Innovation, Environmental Awareness, Green Information Systems (Green IS), Cross-Cultural Studies, Generative AI, Sustainable AI 2026-03-31 The Equity-Efficiency Paradox: Environmental and Social Impacts of Fourth Agricultural Revolution Technologies https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/408009&r=&r=env The Fourth Agricultural Revolution promises to reconcile productivity with environmental sustainability through nine transformative technologies: artificial intelligence, IoT sensors, robotics, biotechnology, drones, precision irrigation, vertical farming, blockchain, and digital twins. This critical review examines both environmental impacts and socioeconomic implications through an analysis of peer-reviewed research.This review documents substantial environmental benefits such as water conservation, pesticide reductions and disease detection accuracies. However, the analysis reveals an equity-efficiency paradox: technologies delivering the greatest environmental benefits often impose the most severe social costs. Capital-intensive systems create barriers for 500 million smallholder farmers. Agricultural robotics threatens vulnerable migrant workers with displacement. Digital platforms risk reducing farmers from independent producers to dependent data subjects. Additional concerns include psychological stress from information overload, erosion of farmer-land connections, and technological lock-in restricting repair autonomy. The analysis suggests an agricultural sustainability trilemma where agriculture 4.0 technologies achieve environmental and economic goals while undermining equity, raising questions about whether all three can coexist. Corporate mega-mergers have concentrated control—the "Big Four" now control over 60% of global seed sales and agrochemicals. Large operations in wealthy nations capture benefits while smallholders, workers, and communities bear costs of exclusion, displacement, and lost autonomy. A critical finding is systematic absence of quantitative social impact data across all dimensions. I propose a research agenda emphasizing inclusive development, just transition programs, data governance reforms, and food sovereignty protections to navigate between environmental promise and social perils. Arvind Ashta Fourth Agricultural Revolution; Precision agriculture; Agricultural sustainability; Equity and access; Food sovereignty; Corporate consolidation; Digital agriculture; Trilemma 2026-06-05 Transitioning to electric mobility: stakeholder insights on benefits and barriers for the motorcycle taxi sector in Kenya https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:e9jhc_v1&r=&r=env Electric vehicles are starting to enter the market in Kenya in the context of micro-mobility and could be an effective solution for decarbonising the growing motorcycle taxi sector and reducing its wider transport and environmental impacts. As the policy development in Kenya is in its early stages, this paper explores policy gaps supporting the transition to electric mobility in the motorcycle taxi sector. From stakeholders’ focus groups and workshops, socio-economic and environmental benefits and barriers have been identified. Main benefits comprise operational cost savings, operators’ well-being and tackling air pollution, while barriers include upfront costs of both operators and start-ups, awareness among operators, charging infrastructure, battery standards and e-waste processes. The paper provides a set of policy recommendations, stressing the need for inclusive processes that consider motorcycle taxi operators as major stakeholders of policy development and mechanisms to understand how this transition accommodates the sector’s needs over time. Luiu, Carlo Barake, Bosibori Wandera, Amos Ohler, Sabrina Pope, Francis D. Radcliffe, Jonathan 2026-05-25 Urban Forestry in Selected Nepali and US Cities: Assessment, Analysis, and Recommendations https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:52nbg_v1&r=&r=env Urban forests provide numerous benefits to urban residents, including shade, dust control, noise mitigation, stormwater retention, ecological services, pedestrian comfort, aesthetic enhancement, and economic value, including food production. Nepali urban areas face a range of environmental and infrastructure-related challenges, such as air and noise pollution, frequent street flooding, and poorly maintained roads and sidewalks. In addition, many pedestrians in cities experience uncomfortable, unpleasant, unhygienic, and unsafe walking conditions. Urban forests can help alleviate many of these problems at relatively low cost by providing shade, absorbing dust and noise, and reducing surface water runoff. Urban trees also enhance urban aesthetics, increase property values, and provide psychological and therapeutic benefits to residents. Despite these benefits, urban forestry remains an underappreciated aspect of urban planning and development in Nepal. In recent years, some municipalities have begun to recognize the importance of urban forests and are exploring ways to improve urban greenery and tree cover. However, substantial work remains to develop effective urban forestry plans and implement them to address the challenges described above. In contrast, urban forestry practices in many US cities are relatively advanced. Most major US cities now maintain urban forestry master plans aimed at improving shade, aesthetics, biodiversity, and environmental performance. This paper summarizes the benefits of urban forests, reviews urban forestry practices in selected US cities, and examines the current state of urban forestry in Nepal, particularly in the Kathmandu and Pokhara Valleys; the metropolitan cities of Bharatpur, Birgunj, and Biratnagar; and the sub-metropolitan cities of Dharan, Hetauda, and Nepalgunj. The paper proposes policy recommendations and practical steps for developing urban forestry master plans for Nepali cities. It also reviews selected examples of urban forestry practices in both the United States and Nepal. Urban planners and policymakers may benefit from the recommendations and planning approaches outlined in this paper. Adhikari, Ambika P. Bhattarai, Keshav 2026-01-15 From Trade War to Green Transition: Optimal Electric Vehicle Tariffs with Revenue-Funded Subsidies https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35334&r=&r=env We study the optimal design of trade and industrial policy when governments pursue environmental objectives alongside traditional national welfare. Motivated by the global transition to electric vehicles (EVs) and growing concerns about competitiveness, resilience, and the environment, we develop a framework in which policymakers choose tariffs and domestic production subsidies to maximize national welfare, defined as the sum of consumer surplus, domestic profits, environmental benefits, and tariff revenue net of subsidies. We combine a theoretical model of differentiated-product oligopoly with a structural demand model estimated using vehicle-level data from 13 countries during 2004-2023 that together account for the vast majority of global EV sales. Our central finding is that the optimal policy combines a moderate tariff on imported EVs with a subsidy to domestic EV production financed through tariff revenue. This policy substantially outperforms both outright protectionism and laissez-faire. Relative to current policies, it preserves consumer access to affordable EVs, accelerates fleet electrification, supports domestic producers, and remains budget-neutral. For the United States, the optimal policy more than doubles EV market share, generates over $45 billion in annual welfare gains, and avoids approximately 95 million tons of lifetime CO2 emissions. A key mechanism underlying these results is the pass-through of tariffs and subsidies to prices, which depends critically on demand curvature, product substitution, and market structure. More broadly, our results suggest that effective industrial policy requires careful attention to market structure and country-specific conditions, balancing consumer, producer, fiscal, and environmental objectives rather than adhering to ideological prescriptions. Panle Jia Barwick Jack Collison Pinelopi K. Goldberg Shanjun Li Yucheng Wang 2026-06 Extending the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism to Indirect Emissions: Implications for Finland https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:report:178&r=&r=env Abstract This report examines the planned extension of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to indirect emissions and its coordination with the existing indirect cost compensation under the EU Emissions Trading System. The study provides an overview of Finland’s CBAM sectors, estimates tariff elasticities using a gravity model for the years 2010–2023, and simulates three scenarios in which the inclusion of indirect emissions in the CBAM extension is combined with different changes to indirect cost compensation. The results indicate that import responses to the CBAM extension are most pronounced in the aluminium sector, while the effects on iron and steel are more moderate. The scenario analysis suggests that extending CBAM to indirect emissions would reduce imports by a few percentage points, whereas the simultaneous phase-out of indirect cost compensation would have only a limited additional impact. Consequently, the extension would help reduce the risk of carbon leakage, although it would also increase the cost of imports in Finland. Wang, Maria Kuusi, Tero Carbon leakage, Carbon border adjustment mechanism, Gravity model, Tariff elasticity 2026-06-10 Criticality of Critical Minerals for India's Quest for Net Zero Goals: An Analysis of Supply Chain Risks https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2026-01&r=&r=env India’s energy transition and net zero ambitions are expected to generate substantial demand for critical minerals, particularly to support its target of 500 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030. However, India continues to face major challenges in domestic sourcing, processing, and refining, while external procurement is increasingly shaped by geopolitical dynamics. This paper analyses the policies and regulations governing critical minerals in India and assesses key supply chain-related risks within the policy landscape. The findings show that India’s approach combines domestic production measures with international partnerships, while resource concentration and geopolitical risks remain key challenges to achieving resilient and secure critical mineral supply chains. Gopal K. Sarangi Han Phoumin Rabindra Nepal - 2026-06-04 Sustainable Investment Decisions: Heterogeneous Beliefs and Preferences https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsi:irersi:24&r=&r=env We analyze whether households’ investment decisions in ESG assets can be explained by their preferences for sustainability or by their beliefs about future returns. To address this question, we develop a structural discrete-choice model with heterogeneous beliefs and preferences. Using a large-scale survey with randomized mutual fund allocation scenarios and elicited return expectations, we recover individual-level willingness to pay for sustainability (and financial risk). Our specification does not restrict investors’ willingness to pay for sustainability to be positive, allowing the data to determine both the magnitude and direction of sustainability preferences at the individual level. The results show that beliefs about expected returns are the driving factor for investing in sustainable assets and non-pecuniary preferences for sustainability play only a secondary role. Moreover, respondents’ return beliefs exceed the beliefs implied by the model’s equilibrium predictions. Philippe d’Astous Iwan Meier Pierre-Carl Michaud Sustainable investing, beliefs and preferences, ESG. 2026 Impact of Flight Emissions Information on Consumer Demand: Evidence from the US Airline Industry https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-26-08&r=&r=env Flight-booking websites, such as Google Flights and Skyscanner, increasingly display estimated CO2 emissions for flight itineraries, but little is known about whether this information affects booking decisions. We study how emissions disclosure affects consumers’ flight choices using US domestic flight data from 2018 to 2022 and a discrete-choice model and find that it increases consumers’ sensitivity to flight emissions. In our preferred specification, the absolute value of the emissions elasticity of demand increases from 0.23 in the predisclosure period to 0.28 in the period following the first disclosure. Expressed in willingness-to-pay (WTP) terms, the implied WTP for emissions reductions is $33 per ton higher in the postdisclosure period. Counterfactual simulations suggest that mandating emissions disclosure across all flight-booking platforms would further strengthen consumers’ responsiveness to emissions information.Keywords: Willingness to pay, Carbon emissions disclosure, Discrete-choice model, AviationJEL codes: D12, D83, L93, Q58 Lohawala, Nafisa Teng, Xuan 2026-06-11 Decarbonization or Carbon Outsourcing? The Effect of Commodity Price Movements Across Industries https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exe:wpaper:2606&r=&r=env Using a panel of nine manufacturing industries in 43 economies over the period 1990-2015, we examine how international commodity price movements affect carbon emissions across industries. We find that commodity price movements are associated with larger reductions in emissions intensity in physical-capital-intensive industries, whereas the emissions response does not vary systematically with human capital intensity. The results are economically meaningful and robust. The evidence points to cross-industry reallocation as the dominant adjustment channel, with commodity price movements associated with lower value-added growth in physical-capital-intensive industries, whereas the evidence for within-industry emissions-efficiency improvements is weaker. We further show that industries experiencing larger declines in domestic emissions intensity also exhibit larger increases in emissions embodied in imports, suggesting some relocation of emissions-intensive production across borders. Overall, commodity price movements appear to support domestic decarbonization while raising concerns about carbon outsourcing. Olayinka Oyekola Mingyuan Chen Diego Morris commodity prices, carbon emissions, physical capital intensity, industrial reallocation, decarbonization, carbon outsourcing 2026-06-08 Prominent numbers in DCE cost vectors: A review and an application to wind energy https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05626914&r=&r=env Nearly all discrete choice experiments in environmental valuation have a cost attribute to estimate willingness to pay for the goods and services in question. The composition of the cost vector, however, has received little attention in the literature so far. This paper focuses on whether or not the cost vector should include "prominent amounts" (e.g., €1, €2, €5, €10, €20, €50). On the one hand, these amounts are familiar to participants as they are used in everyday life (e.g., coins or banknotes). On the other hand, respondents may not consider the amounts to reflect the cost of environmental programs, affecting credibility. In a review of published discrete choice experiment articles on wind energy, we find little information on how the levels of the cost attribute vectors were chosen and why prominent amounts are (not) included, reflecting the lack of guidance in the literature. In a split-sample survey on renewable energy, we find that the composition of the cost vector does not affect choice frequencies or the perceived difficulty of the task. However, we observe that the cost vector impacts credibility, suggesting that it may impact the validity of the welfare estimates. Pierre-Alexandre Mahieu Klaus Glenk Jürgen Meyerhoff Prominent numbers, Discrete choice experiment, Cost vector, Payment consequentiality, Renewable energy 2026-02 Sustainable Investment Decisions: Heterogeneous Beliefs and Preferences https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2026s-11&r=&r=env We analyze whether households’ investment decisions in ESG assets can be explained by their preferences for sustainability or by their beliefs about future returns. To address this question, we develop a structural discrete-choice model with heterogeneous beliefs and preferences. Using a large-scale survey with randomized mutual fund allocation scenarios and elicited return expectations, we recover individual-level willingness to pay for sustainability (and financial risk). Our specification does not restrict investors’ willingness to pay for sustainability to be positive, allowing the data to determine both the magnitude and direction of sustainability preferences at the individual level. The results show that beliefs about expected returns are the driving factor for investing in sustainable assets and non-pecuniary preferences for sustainability play only a secondary role. Moreover, respondents’ return beliefs exceed the beliefs implied by the model’s equilibrium predictions. Nous analysons si les décisions d’investissement des ménages dans des actifs ESG peuvent s’expliquer par leurs préférences pour la durabilité ou par leurs croyances quant aux rendements futurs. Pour répondre à cette question, nous développons un modèle structurel de choix discret intégrant des croyances et des préférences hétérogènes. À l’aide d’une enquête à grande échelle comprenant des scénarios aléatoires de répartition dans des fonds communs de placement et des anticipations de rendement déclarées, nous estimons la disposition à payer individuelle pour la durabilité, ainsi que pour le risque financier. Notre spécification n’impose pas que la disposition des investisseuses et investisseurs à payer pour la durabilité soit positive, ce qui permet aux données de déterminer à la fois l’ampleur et le sens des préférences en matière de durabilité au niveau individuel. Les résultats montrent que les croyances concernant les rendements attendus constituent le principal facteur expliquant l’investissement dans des actifs durables, tandis que les préférences non pécuniaires pour la durabilité ne jouent qu’un rôle secondaire. De plus, les croyances des répondantes et répondants au sujet des rendements dépassent celles qui sont implicites dans les prédictions d’équilibre du modèle. Philippe d’Astous Iwan Meier Pierre-Carl Michaud Sustainable investing, beliefs and preferences, ESG, Investissement durable, Croyances et préférences, ESG 2026-06-17 Facing prolonged uncertainty: how is forest planning evolving? Insights from the French state forests https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05642036&r=&r=env This study shows how climate change profoundly reshapes forest planning routines. Based on a French state forest case study, it demonstrates a shift from rigid, long-term planning toward adaptive planning built on shorter cycles, continuous monitoring through remote sensing, and renewed governance that strengthens coordination within forest administrations and with external stakeholders. Context: Climate change fundamentally challenges the foundations of traditional forest planning, which has long relied on stable ecological baselines, long-term predictability, and deterministic planning cycles. Increasing disturbances such as droughts, pests, and large-scale dieback undermine these assumptions and create conditions of prolonged uncertainty, rendering conventional planning increasingly ineffective. Aims: We explored how forest planners adapt their practices to cope with this prolonged uncertainty and provide emerging alternatives, through the theoretical framework of organizational routines to analyze both stability and change. Methods: We conducted an in-depth single-case study of a French state forest, combining interviews, field observations, and analysis of management documents. Using an abductive and processual approach, we traced the sequencing of actions, actors, and artifacts to understand how forest planning routines evolve in practice. Results: We identify three major shifts: the shortening of planning cycles to reduce long-term obsolescence; the integration of continuous monitoring enabled by remote sensing technologies; and the redesign of governance arrangements to enhance internal coordination and stakeholder engagement. Conclusion: Forest planning is transitioning from a fixed long-term roadmap toward an adaptive, continuously updated process designed to cope with persistent uncertainty. Frédéric Bonin Meriem Fournier Benoît Grasser Myriam Legay Prolonged uncertainty, Forest planning, Monitoring, Organizational routine, Pattern 2026-06-03 An Ethical Pollution Tax https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35278&r=&r=env Through theory and numerical simulations, I explore how a pollution tax can be designed to accommodate ethical objections. I consider four types of objections that have been raised by ethicists – based on equity concerns, incommensurability, civic responsibility, and commodification. In each case, I theoretically derive a tax designed to respond to the objection, and quantitatively, using a general equilibrium model calibrated to the U.S. economy and carbon dioxide pollution, I show how these accommodations affect the magnitude of the tax and the resulting emissions level. Some accommodations likely have small effects on the carbon tax rate, while others can cause the tax rate to increase fivefold. Garth Heutel 2026-05 Which agroecology in vegetable production systems? Typology analysis of French West Indies farms https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05645706&r=&r=env Faced with current agricultural challenges, vegetable production systems in Martinique and Guadeloupe are being called to transition towards more environmentally-friendly practices. These territories hold significant potential to address these challenges in terms of food security, sustainability and resilience to climate change. In this context, having a better understanding of the diversity of vegetable farms is an essential step in shedding light on the dynamics of agroecological practices and chemicals use. The study is based on a typological analysis of 409 farms. We first categorize farms according to their structure, their economic performance, the individual characteristics of their farmers and their additional activities. Three clusters of farms emerged: (1) the survivors which are poorly diversified, generate low incomes and operate on small surfaces; (2) the diversified which are similar to the first group but are differentiated by their high diversity in terms of crops and para-agricultural activities and by a greater use of direct sales; and (3) the big farms which are cultivated on large surfaces, need more workforce and generate a higher income. Based on this typology, we characterize their agroecological profile according to their degree of agroecological practices, pesticides and chemical fertilizers use. The results show that diversified farms are the most engaged in agroecology with less reliance on chemicals and a greater adoption of agroecological practices compared to the survivors and the big farms. This study thus allows to characterize the vegetable production systems in the French West Indies and highlights the facilitating role of diversification and small farm size in the development of agroecology. Camille Luis Magali Aubert Laurent Parrot zones insulaires, typologie des exploitations maraîchères, pratique agricole, agroécologie, intrants de synthèse, agroecology, agricultural practices, chemicals, vegetable farms typology, insular areas, zones insulaires agroecology, agroécologie pratique agricole intrants de synthèse typologie des exploitations maraîchères zones insulaires agroecology agricultural practices chemicals vegetable farms typology insular areas 2026-06-04 Delivering adaptation and water security: behavioural determinants sustaining community volunteer champions in sub-Saharan Africa https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138704&r=&r=env Attempts to strengthen adaptive capacity and water security across sub-Saharan Africa include widespread use of a local volunteer champion mode of delivery by NGOs and governments. Problems with sustained engagement of volunteer champions exist but have received limited attention. We employ a behavioural lens, rarely applied in this context, to examine factors shaping champion sustained engagement. Qualitative data were gathered from 158 champions across seven active champion-based water security and climate adaptation projects in Tanzania, Burkina Faso, Malawi, South Africa, Mozambique, and Zambia, and analysed using the COM-B behavioural model. The sample showed convergence of behavioural determinants across diverse case studies. Champions’ physical and psychological capability to stay engaged was typically evident, and reflective and automatic motivation was high, driven by prosocial commitment, interest, and satisfaction and reinforced by emotional responses including joy from helping and pride. Conversely, physical and social opportunity are frequently constrained, particularly by inadequate tools, materials, transport, or ongoing support from external project implementers. Contrary to assumptions that low sustained engagement stems from insufficient champion motivation, this instead shows that external support and structural factors are critical to leverage otherwise high motivation. The findings offer practical guidance for organisations seeking to enhance adaptation and water security through champion-based programme design, orienting focus towards reducing structural barriers to support sustained engagement. Such strategies avoid relinquishing responsibility and overburdening champions with unfair motivational appeals, with important climate justice implications. The study demonstrates the value of a behavioural lens for investigating the delivery of community-based adaptation and water security. Ingram, Will Vincent, Katharine Lalika, Christossy Barry, Djibril Gungalund, Vitus Tondelo Gannon, Kate Mikolajczak, Katarzyna Kanyumba, Gloria Truelove, Julie climate change adaptation; volunteer; behaviour change; motivation; COM-B; champtions; Tanzania; Malawi; Burkina Faso; Zambia; Mozambique; South Africa 2026-06-05 Beat the heat, the role of heat waves and droughts in regional EU economies https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263248&r=&r=env Europe is increasingly exposed to heat waves and droughts, but their short-term economic effects across sectors remain hard to predict. This study develops climate-augmented models to predict real growth in per capita value added across 1, 117 EU regions (2002–2022), by combining economic indicators with high-frequency climate data. When using machine learning (ML, Random Forest and XGBoost), climate variables improve predictions in agriculture, while gains for other sectors are limited and do not outperform economic models. Heat wave indicators consistently enhance predictive performance, whereas drought effects vary by sector. Simulations of extreme combined heat and drought scenarios suggest that agricultural annual growth could fall by 1.9 to 7.6 percentage points in most regions, whereas industry, and manufacturing in particular, is less affected, although impacts are more pronounced in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states. Overall, ML models better reflect complex climate–economic interactions, supporting their use for early warning, policy planning, and targeted adaptation. JEL Classification: C53, E37, Q54, R15 Delgado-Téllez, Mar Ceglar, Andrej Spiteri, Sarah Lebouteiller, Léonore Vorderobermeier, Nicole climate extremes, machine learning, production, regional predictions 2026-06 DETERMINANTS FOR THE VITICULTURAL SYSTEMS SUSTAINABILITY https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128911&r=&r=env The adoption of a sustainable approach has been recognized as a competitive and resilience factor for the vine and wine sector. This research aimed to address the variables that explain the sustainability of the viticultural systems practiced in the Douro Demarcated Region, in a dimensional and global perspective of sustainability. In total 110 vineyard farms were randomly selected and a matrix of sustainability indicators grouped by economic, environmental and social dimension was used. In order to analyse the main determinants of the different dimensions of sustainability, an econometric analysis was carried out considering different typologies or groups of determinants: efficiency; training system; vineyard landscaping; geographical determinants; destination of the grapes; type of work used; other determinants. Based on the estimations of eight models, an important divergence in the results was found, especially between the estimates of the models developed through the global sustainability index than the estimates of the indices disaggregated by dimension. This disparity in results indicates that the analysis of the determinants of sustainability should be carried out in a disaggregated manner (at the level of sustainability dimensions). Divergent results were also deduced depending on the dimension of sustainability. For instance, the model with the highest explanatory power concerned the economic dimension, while the efficiency determinant was not significant in the social and environmental dimensions. In light of these findings, policy measures are proposed. Marta-Costa, Ana Rodríguez, Xosé A. Santos, Micael Viticultural; Sustainability; Econometric Anlysis 2024-05-21 From Stacks to Circuits: A Regenerative Socio-Technical Roadmap for AI Infrastructure within Planetary Boundaries https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.10544&r=&r=env Current scaling trajectories for Generative AI, typified by linear supply-side "stacks, " prioritize performance density while externalizing significant thermodynamic and material costs. As the "Twin Transition" of green and digital transformation accelerates, the industry faces technology gaps - including Scope 3 emissions and e-waste recycling - that impede sustainable scaling and lead to social tensions. This study proposes a Regenerative Socio-Technical roadmap that repurposes the Sustainable Production and Consumption system map to reframe artificial intelligence infrastructure as a system-of-systems governed ultimately by planetary limits. By integrating the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers International Roadmap for Devices and Systems (IEEE IRDS) sustainability considerations for semiconductor facilities, the study proposes a metabolic circuit framework that centers "Values and Needs" within production and consumption relationship loops. This study identifies critical gaps in current Nvidia-centric roadmaps and proposes a competing reference architecture. It demonstrates how a spontaneous order of resource parsimony and planetary accountability can provide an actionable pathway for regulatory compliance and industrial resilience in the digital circular economy. Han-Teng Liao Karen Ang 2026-06 Perception of (multi)risk in forest: a review of the literature https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2026-16&r=&r=env Forests provide a wide range of goods and services that are threatened by natural disturbances, which represent one of thegreatest threats to forests worldwide. Climate change increases their frequency and intensity, creating a multirisk context in which different hazards act in combination. How forest owners perceive these interconnected risks is crucial for the implementation of adaptation strategies and the development of relevant public policy. In this article, we conduct a literature review examining how existing articles address risk perception in forests, particularly in relation to multirisk. Our review focuses exclusively on research articles written in english, with at least one keyword for risk perception, forests, and risk. More specifically, we examine whether the methodologies used to study isolated risks remain relevant when considering multirisk. Our main conclusion is that no study directly addresses the perception of multirisk in forests, as almost all the articles consider risks in isolation. Methodologically, most studies rely on surveys conducted among professionals, forest owners, or local residents. Very few articles are theoretically grounded or based on economic models. In addition, the literature reveals a lack of diversity in both the risks and countries studied, with the majority of papers focusing on wildfires in the United States. Therefore, understanding the perception of multirisk in forests remains a broad field for future research, both theoretically- particularly in economics- and empirically, through further exploration of underrepresented countries. Clémence Barrey Marielle Brunette David Shanafelt Forest; Risk; Perception; Multirisk; Review; Cognitive 2026 Simplifying crop models into statistical emulators of varying complexity https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:182490&r=&r=env Process based crop simulation models can be used to anticipate how crop yields behave under different weather conditions which makes them useful for assessing the implications for yields of weather variability, uncertainty, and climate change. However, they can be cumbersome to use or embed in other models. Hence, developing statistical models that emulate the full models can provide a lighter-weight means of harnessing their power for rapid or high-volume assessments. We develop emulators for several major crops. Climate and fertilizer rates are matched to the yields simulated by a full crop model to provide a dataset covering the entire land surface of the globe. We use neural network specifications to be able to easily try out different levels of complexity. The final selection of the emulator models is a balance between complexity and performance. The large amount of data meant that the emulators could support complicated specifications. We ultimately settled on models with approximately 200 parameters. Neither rainfed nor irrigated conditions were consistently better performing. In general, the r-squared values of the estimated emulators ranged from 0.85 to 0.95. No crops appeared significantly easier or more difficult to model than the others. The emulators we developed provide a simple substitute for more complicated crop models when a high level of detail is not needed. The approach can be easily updated with new data or be applied to more specific circumstances if necessary by creating custom datasets that emphasize the particular conditions anticipated to be most important. Robertson, Richard D. crop modelling; models; crop yield; climate change impacts; climate change 2026-04-14 Energy-Augmenting Productivity and Carbon Pricing: Evidence from Production Microdata https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:was:dpaper:2603&r=&r=env How does directed technological change toward energy efficiency shape the effects and design of carbon pricing? We estimate a structural production function that separates energy-augmenting productivity from Hicks-neutral productivity using Indonesian manufacturing microdata. Exploiting energy-price variation from fossil-fuel subsidy reforms, we find that higher energy prices induce energy-augmenting productivity growth. Counterfactual simulations show that heterogeneity in energy-augmenting productivity, rather than Hicks-neutral productivity, drives the welfare advantage of carbon pricing over uniform regulation. When carbon pricing induces energy-augmenting innovation, aggregate emissions fall further, although a rebound effect partially offsets this additional abatement. Effective carbon-pricing design should account for productivity heterogeneity, induced innovation, and rebound effects. Tatsuya Abe Arlan Brucal Yuta Toyama Energy-augmenting productivity, production function, rebound effect, induced innovation, structural estimation, carbon pricing, production microdata 2026-06 Strategic Approaches to Critical Minerals and Korea-Africa Cooperation https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:022493&r=&r=env The global green transition has intensified competition for critical minerals essential to renewable energy and electric vehicles, which require significantly more minerals than traditional technologies. The demand for critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, and rare earth elements has surged, leading to supply chain vulnerabilities due to the concentration of production and processing in a few countries.<p> Africa, with its abundant mineral reserves, is emerging as a key player in global supply chains of critical minerals, possessing about 20% of the world’s reserves needed for green transition. Many African governments are reforming mining laws to enhance state control while offering incentives to attract investment. In response, major global players such as the US., the EU, China, Japan, and Canada are increasing cooperation with Africa, each adopting distinctive strategies to secure supply chains.<p> In its partnership with Africa, Korea should pursue a comprehensive strategy across the critical mineral value chains, ensuring ESG compliance, and promoting industrial cooperation aimed at upgrading local processing capabilities. Three key strategies are recommended: (1) tailoring cooperation to Africa’s evolving policy context and infrastructure needs; (2) strengthening resource diplomacy and enhancing multilateral and bilateral cooperation through platforms such as the Korea-Africa Critical Minerals Dialogue; and (3) expanding financial and non-financial support to promote greater private sector engagement. Seoni Han critical minerals; Africa 2025-07-28 When Risk Information Changes the Trip: Evidence from a Randomized Panel Combining Discrete Choice and Travel Cost Methods https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2026-22&r=&r=env Coastal bathing delivers large welfare benefits but exposes recreationists to low-probability, high-salience microbial risks that are likely to become more frequent under climate change. Because these risks are largely invisible, behaviour and welfare depend on beliefs and the effectiveness of risk communication. We provide causal evidence on how pathogen-risk information affects preferences and recreation demand using a three-wave panel survey of users of the Gulf of Gdańsk and the Vistula Lagoon (Poland). A stratified national sample identified 3, 312 active coastal users in Wave 1 (spring 2024); 2, 588 respondents returned in Wave 2 (summer 2024), where they were randomly assigned to receive either minimal information or increasingly detailed pathogen-risk scripts, and then completed a repeated beach-site discrete choice experiment. Approximately one year later (spring 2025), 1, 507 users completed a policy-referendum discrete choice experiment on programs combining water-quality improvements, monitoring frequency, and household costs, alongside a repeated travel-cost module capturing multi-day trips and beach outings. Information treatments significantly increased objective and self-assessed knowledge and selectively raised willingness to travel/pay for risk-relevant attributes – especially frequent water-quality monitoring and water-quality improvements – while leaving unrelated attributes largely unchanged. Travel-cost models indicate that information affects trip-taking behaviour, yet the marginal travel-cost sensitivity remains stable, consistent with a demand shift rather than a change in the “price” slope. The results imply that welfare estimates are information-dependent and that credible risk communication can function as a scalable, low-cost complement to traditional coastal health-risk management. Mikołaj Czajkowski Wojciech Zawadzki Katarzyna Skrzypek Wiktor Budziński Milan Scasny Bathing water quality, Pathogens, Microbial contamination, Risk communication, Information treatments, Discrete choice experiment (DCE), Travel cost method (TCM), Recreation demand, Welfare measurement, Consumer surplus, Climate adaptation, Coastal health risks, Baltic Sea, Poland 2026 Generalized Tools for Evaluating Active Transportation Projects Show Promise—But Project Level Estimates Need Other Support https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3jq2z22s&r=&r=env Cities and regions are increasingly investing in walking and bicycling infrastructure, driven by well-documented health, social, and environmental benefits of active transportation. However, most agencies lack practical tools to accurately assess whether these investments are achieving their intended outcomes. Accurately measuring change in walking and bicycling attributable to investments like new bike lanes or sidewalks is difficult and involves resources and expertise that is generally not feasible or financially sustainable for mode agencies. Linehan, Caitlyn Fitch-Polse, Dillon T. PhD Nelson, Trisalyn PhD Social and Behavioral Sciences 2026-06-01 A Comparative Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of the US High-Voltage Transmission Network https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.23053&r=&r=env Modern economies depend critically on high-voltage power transmission networks. Yet this infrastructure is routinely disrupted by natural hazards ranging from earthquakes and floods to tornadoes and geomagnetic storms. Risk assessments have historically addressed hazards in isolation, leaving no common basis for comparing economic impacts across the full hazard portfolio. This study addresses this gap by developing an integrated framework linking hazard characterization, fragility modeling, and macroeconomic impact propagation. The framework is applied consistently across nine primary hazards and one compound freezing rain and wind gust hazard. Using national hazard datasets and a US high-voltage transmission network of over 13, 000 line segments and 10, 000 substations, we derive failure probabilities, expected damage, affected population, and downstream economic output losses. Among individual hazards, tropical cyclone wind produces the largest expected daily damage at $137 M/day, followed by lightning at $87 M/day, earthquake at $47 M/day, flood at $46 M/day, tornado at $42 M/day, and landslide at $34 M/day. Downstream economic output losses are largest for tornado at $4.93 B/day, followed by flood at $3.59 B/day and earthquake at $3.02 B/day. A 250-year geomagnetic storm produces $2.07 B/day, placing space weather within the range of major terrestrial hazards. The compound freezing rain and wind gust scenario produces the largest stress-test disruption, affecting 237.4 M people and yielding a modeled downstream output loss of $85.16 B/day. These results should be interpreted as first-order bounding estimates, with the compound scenario representing an upper-bound stress test. Overall, the framework establishes a consistent baseline for prioritizing investments in transmission network resilience. D. Bor E. J. Oughton R. S. Weigel R. Yang T. Clower A. Newman A. R. Valle 2026-05 Slow but Tangible Progress: The Economic Dividends of Decarbonisation in Cyprus https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hel:greese:218&r=&r=env Instability in global energy supply and fluctuating international oil and gas prices push European countries to reduce fuel import dependency through energy saving measures and faster deployment of renewable energy. Calculating the fuel import bill, as usually done to illustrate the impact of the continent’s energy dependency, offers only a partial picture of the challenge. This paper applies an economy-wide assessment for Cyprus, a country which greatly relies on imported fossil fuels but has made some progress towards decarbonisation. We combine energy, economic and trade statistics with technical calculations and find that renewables deployed in the last decade have already today contributed to very substantial net benefits of 469 million Euros at 2023 prices, leading to a benefit-cost ratio ranging between 11 and 19. Input-output modelling shows that economy-wide benefits have led to a cumulative additional value added of the order of 1.4 billion Euros’2023 during the decade 2015-2024, with a 0.5-1% GDP increase per year thanks to renewables investments and avoided fossil fuel imports. The approach presented here minimises the uncertainties and assumptions that are necessary to run more sophisticated economic models and can offer credible insights on the economic dividends of decarbonisation policies in any country, contributing also to improved energy security. Theodoros Zachariadis Elias Giannakis decarbonisation, energy policy, energy security, input-output analysis, renewable energy, trade balance 2026-04 Tax progressivity of carbon and gasoline taxes: the role of income inequality https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138449&r=&r=env We present a simple model showing how income inequality and the income elasticity of demand jointly shape the tax progressivity of indirect taxes, with rising inequality increasing the regressivity of taxes on necessities. We test the model’s predictions by analyzing the Swedish carbon tax on transport fuel. We find that the tax becomes increasingly regressive over time, closely tracking rising income inequality. We also show that the relative incidence shifts from regressive to progressive when using annual expenditure rather than annual income as the welfare measure, as expenditure is more evenly distributed. A cross-country analysis of gasoline taxes in high-income nations further supports our findings, establishing a strong correlation between higher inequality and greater regressivity. Our model helps policymakers identify when complementary redistributive measures such as lump-sum transfers may become necessary. Andersson, Julius J. Atkinson, Giles tax progressivity; income inequality; gasoline taxation; carbon taxation 2026-06-30 Frequency-Specific Coupling in Cenozoic Climate Variability https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-749&r=&r=env Long paleoclimate time series combine strong persistence, multiple orbital-scale periodicities, and structural changes across climate states. These features complicate the statistical analysis of deep-time proxy records, since common spectral peaks do not necessarily imply stable relationships between variables. We analyze Cenozoic climate variability using the Cenozoic Global Reference benthic isotope record over the last 67.1 million years. The cleaned and interpolated d18O and d13C series are studied in a regime-based setting, with segments defined by major Cenozoic climate-state transitions to investigate if a stable coupling occurs between the isotope proxies and Earth's astronomical variables. The analysis combines long-memory estimation, sequential frequency identification, frequency-adapted unit-root and stationarity testing at zero and harmonic frequencies, and cyclical fractional cointegration. This allows us to distinguish zero-frequency persistence from persistent cyclical behaviour and to test whether shared cyclical frequencies correspond to stable frequency-specific relationships between the proxies and orbital reference variables. The results show that the proxy series are not well described by a simple stationary versus unit-root dichotomy. Instead, they exhibit persistent long-memory dynamics with pronounced cyclical structure. Shared spectral peaks occur across several climate-state segments, yet only selected frequencies support stable fractional cointegration. Thus, isotope proxies and orbital reference variables may overlap spectrally without necessarily forming a stable long memory relationship. A key finding is that the additional split at the Eocene-Oligocene transition reveals a change in the frequency-specific relationship between d18O and d13C. Before the transition, stable fractional cointegration is associated with an orbital-scale band, whereas after the transition it shifts toward multi-million-year variability. This points to a substantial reorganisation of the frequency-specific coupling between the oxygen- and carbon-isotope records after the transition. del Barrio Castro, Tomás Escribano, Álvaro Özer, Yeliz Sibbertsen Philipp CENOGRID, Cyclical Fractional Cointegration, Deep-Time Paleoclimate 2026-06 Financial conditions and green R&D https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1946&r=&r=env This paper studies how financial conditions affect research and development (R&D) by firms specialized in green innovation. Using U.S. patent data matched with Compustat, we identify “green innovators” as firms with a high cumulative share of green patents. Although they account for a small share of total green patenting, these firms occupy central positions in the green-innovation ecosystem. Estimating firm-level impulse responses to exogenous changes in broad financial conditions, we find that tightening has a disproportionately large and persistent negative effect on the R&D of specialized green innovators. In contrast, R&D by diversified innovators and non-innovators responds only weakly. Green innovators are younger, smaller, and more dependent on external finance, suggesting that financial tightening introduces a systematic bias against upstream green technological development. Luca Fornaro Veronica Guerrieri Will Hotten Lucrezia Reichlin 2026-06 Scoping Review of AI, Metrology, and ESG in the Semiconductor Sector: Implications for Safe and Sustainable by Design (SSbD) https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:yknwt_v1&r=&r=env The semiconductor sector faces a dual transition: scaling manufacturing execution through Artificial Intelligence (AI) while satisfying stringent sustainability mandates, such as the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). This paper presents a scoping review of 1, 465 documents indexed in Web of Science and Scopus, spanning AI-integrated metrology, supply chain ESG, and federated industrial data spaces. Network analysis reveals a highly fragmented "core-periphery" knowledge structure, emphasizing a critical structural hole between AI-driven process optimization and downstream sustainability governance. To close these gaps, this study proposes a 6-layer Safe and Sustainable by Design (SSbD) architecture grounded in a System of Systems (SoS) paradigm. By establishing distinct "grid-to-core" and "standards-through-supply-chain" integration pathways, the proposed framework demonstrates how virtual metrology (VM), localized federated learning, and defensive RegTech mechanisms can build provenance-aware data fabrics. Ultimately, this architecture positions regulatory compliance as a driver for innovation, enabling secure, climate-neutral, and circular value chains in semiconductor manufacturing. Liao, Han-Teng Ang, Karen 2026-06-02 Price Pass-Through of Austria’s Single-Use Plastics Producer Charges: Evidence from Retail Offer Spells https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129303&r=&r=env Single-use plastics (SUPs) impose substantial environmental costs. Following Directive (EU) 2019/904, Austria introduced producer charges and mandatory participation in collection and recycling systems. This paper exploits a monthly aggregated and disaggregated panel of retail offer spells drawn from a price-comparison platform to estimate the extent to which compliance costs pass through to posted online prices in Austria. The treated sample comprises keyword-matched SUP products—balloons, to-go cups, wet wipes, plastic bags, food containers, tobacco-filter items, beverage bottles, and plastic wraps—observed alongside a control group of non-SUP listings over 2020–2024. A two-way fixed-effects (TWFE) specification places the average post-treatment price increase at approximately 4.1 percent. A sequential TWFE model that disaggregates the administrative reporting phase (from March 2023) from the payment-due phase (from March 2024) reveals that the larger adjustment occurs during the earlier reporting stage, with a reporting-only effect of approximately 8.1 percent and an incremental payment-phase effect of 5.6 percent. For balloons—a category subject to pronounced regulatory fee exposure—event-study estimates exceed 50 percent in the months immediately following the initial payment date and remain elevated throughout most of the post-treatment window. Taken together, these findings indicate that Austrian online retailers began adjusting prices in advance of fee-payment deadlines, a pattern consistent with anticipatory pass-through of expected compliance costs rather than a discrete response to realized payments. As the data contain price observations but not quantity data, the analysis speaks to price incidence and does not extend to consumption or environmental outcomes. Reichel, Felix single-use plastics; environmental policy; extended producer responsibility; price pass-through; event study; difference in differences; retail prices; Austria 2026-05-28 The effects of treating co-products as waste in input-output impact modelling https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129333&r=&r=env Constrained-optimisation techniques are frequently used in input-output impact modelling, usually applied to single-production data. When using joint-production data, one may observe even for a closed economy that more commodities are supplied than used. This begs the question of what should happen with such a commodity surplus as it does not evaporate into thin air. This is particularly interesting from an environmental perspective, since the surplus is an indication of the economy being inefficient. Here, we outline the difficulties of modelling excess commodities as waste, draw links from our proposed model to well-known models found in the literature, and describe what the influence of accounting for secondary products differently would be in terms of modelling outcomes. Koslowski, Maximilian Hertwich, Edgar G. circular economy, waste input-output analysis, joint-production, free disposal, technology substitution 2026-05-30 From assessment to action: Linking biodiversity assessments and place-based conservation to support transformative change. https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:t3yn4_v1&r=&r=env Scientific biodiversity assessments are challenged by the need to examine systemic drivers of change while maintaining support in a polarized political climate. Recent US national policy shifts that have reduced federal support for scientific assessments underscore the necessity of a broad-based, resilient, and scalable assessment framework with sustained engagement of conservation practitioners from academia, non-governmental organizations, and subnational governments. Such an information ecosystem would integrate spatial data relevant to practitioners from national to regional extents with case studies of place-based strategies and mechanisms for framing local successes within national objectives. The recent response by US climate scientists defending scientific integrity in the face of political polarization provides a relevant model for enhancing collaboration across national science academies, scientific societies, and ad hoc groups of experts. Subnational initiatives such as the Florida Wildlife Corridor and Southeast Conservation Adaptation Strategy provide examples of ambitious, science-informed conservation assessments developed and implemented with both governmental and public support. Engaging a diversity of participants and ensuring greater salience across scales are complementary elements of an integrated approach to strengthening the effectiveness of assessments. Sustaining non-governmental capacity for engagement with the assessment process requires improved models of collaboration, altered academic reward structures, and diverse sources of funding. Improved integration of national-scale data in subnational assessments can strengthen existing models, including state and provincial biodiversity strategies, and support the synthesis of currently fragmented spatial data on biodiversity distribution, threats, and conservation priorities. Stronger linkages between narrative assessments and spatial data, between spatial data and place-based action, and between public engagement with the assessment process and local conservation initiatives can ensure a diverse, resilient support system for biodiversity data development, synthesis, and application that produces actionable and scalable knowledge to support place-based conservation. Carroll, Carlos Goren, Asena Hoctor, Thomas Noss, Reed O'Brien, Michael G. Dreiss, Lindsay Rohlf, Daniel J 2026-05-30 Spatial challenges of Greater North Sea fisheries. Greater North Sea Basin Initiative (GNSBI). Work-Track: Long-Term Perspective of Fisheries (LTPF) https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:jhtire:341414&r=&r=env The economic challenge for five European fisheries fleets from the potential loss of fishing grounds was evaluated by combining commercial fisheries data with spatial information on future fisheries management in marine protected areas and offshore wind farms in the greater North Sea basin. By employing the concept of Stress Level (SL, revenues and catch) the impact of area losses on ten gear-groups and 16 species-groups was estimated for single national fleets and also for the aggregated fleets of Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark and Sweden. Further, the Individual Stress Level (ISL) for revenues was calculated for single vessels and aggregated to ISL-profiles of gear-groups, national and aggregated fleets, single and national ports combined. The results show that whereas a specific fishery might show only a medium SL value, single vessels are at risk to encounter a much higher economic challenge. Further, the found SL values and ISL-profiles indicate that the spatial losses are likely to have different impact on the investigated gear-groups between the national fleets. The results also indicate that the potential economic constraints are not uniformly distributed throughout all ports where landings occur. Also, there is considerable variation of ISL profiles of ports within each of the studied countries. This study breaks down the ISL to the level of single ports and thus makes it possible to pinpoint mitigation measures to those coastal regions where the associated offshore fishing activities encounter higher spatial challenges. It is important to understand that this study is merely a snapshot in time since fisheries data of the years 2018- 2022 are used and the assumptions on fisheries management in 2030 were based on the knowledge of 2023. Therefore, this study will need to be regularly repeated. Schulze, Torsten Kraan, Casper Hamon, Katell van de Pol, Lennert Olsen, Jeppe Jonsson, Patrik Sys, Klaas Lasner, Tobias commercial fisheries, spatial conflicts, specific management, nature protection, off-shore wind farms, OWF, renewable energy, VMS, revenues, catch, Greater Norths Sea Basin Initiative, GNSBI, Individual StressLevel, stress level profiles, ports, coastal areas, gewerbliche Fischerei, räumliche Konflikte, spezifisches Management, Naturschutz, Offshore-Windparks, erneuerbare Energien, Erlöse, Fangmengen, individuelles Stresslevel, Stresslevel-Profile, Häfen, Küstengebiete 2026 Biodiversity, Governance, and Municipal Bonds https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iuj:wpaper:ems_2026_09&r=&r=env The paper shows that biodiversity-related regulatory changes significantly impact municipal bond yields. The paper also finds that certain local factors exacerbate this eect. The analysis exploits a series of statewide regulatory changes that alter the management of unowned cats, an invasive species widely associated with biodiversity loss. The study employs a state-border discontinuity approach, comparing municipal bond yields issued by counties aected by these statewide laws to those issued by nearby counties not subject to such laws. This paper provides one of the first empirical analyses of biodiversity-related regulatory shocks in financial markets. In doing so, it underscores the economic significance of biodiversity-related legislative measures and advances finance research that incorporates biodiversity. Yanghua Shi Biodiversity, Invasive Species, Municipal Bonds, Regulatory Shocks 2026-06 The Kids’ Environment and Health Cohort: a novel administrative data resource for research on the environmental determinants of child health in England https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138668&r=&r=env Objective and Approach The environment in and around children’s homes and schools can influence their health and educational outcomes. Better understanding of how these potentially modifiable environmental risk factors can affect children is crucial in enabling the creation of healthier and more equitable places. We aim to establish the Kids’ Environment and Health Cohort, a research-ready, de-identified, national longitudinal birth cohort of approximately 11 million children born in England from 2006 to 2023, updated annually. The cohort will link vital statistics, census, health, education, and environmental data, via unique property identifiers from longitudinal health service address records for children and their mothers during pregnancy. Data on environmental exposures around schools will be linked to the cohort via education records. The cohort will be held and accessed in a secure research environment at the Office for National Statistics (ONS). All geographical identifiers will be encrypted and stored separately from the main cohort by the ONS to ensure privacy and security. Results We have received ethics approval and have agreed the legal bases for establishing the cohort. We are now setting up data sharing agreements with each data provider. Delivery of the cohort is scheduled for late 2025. Conclusion The Kid’s Environment and Health Cohort will support policy-relevant research in exploring associations between environmental factors and children's health and educational outcomes, and assessing the effectiveness of policy interventions. It will also support interdisciplinary collaboration, guiding evidence-based decision-making for environmental, planning, and public health policies aimed at promoting children’s health and well-being. Akaraci, Selin Macfarlane, Alison Rammah, Amal Courtin, Emilie Miller, Faith Mitchell, Jessica Cruz, Joana Lilliman, Matthew Shoari, Niloofar Hajna, Samantha Cummins, Steven Nafilyan, Vahe Hardelid, Pia 2024-09-10 Moose browsing on Scots pine: impacts on growth, timber production, management and economics https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:bza2k_v1&r=&r=env Modern forestry practice with clearcuts and subsequent regeneration of trees provides ample food for deer and is a key driver for maintaining a dense and highly reproductive moose population in the Nordic countries. However, moose browsing causes heavy damage to growth and wood quality of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), economically one of the most important tree species in this region. The consequences of moose browsing on pine for timber production and economics remain poorly quantified. We address this by studying potential impacts of browsing damage on growth, management, timber production and economic returns in a simulation-optimization framework. Browsing damage functions based on forty-year field observations were implemented in an individual-tree growth and yield simulator to project stand development under alternative forest management alternatives. By including economic parameters, we assessed how management would be shifted over the next 200 years to mitigate impacts of browsing over a range of productivity classes, regeneration densities, browsing levels and discount rates. The most pronounced management adaptation was prolonging rotation age up to twenty years. Still, browsing caused timber production to be reduced by up to 1.5 m3 ha-1 yr-1 and up to 25 percent. Land expectation values were likewise heavily impacted, for a discount rate of 2% p.a., browsing turned forest management on medium-productive land unprofitable. The results may guide policymakers and forestry and wildlife practitioners in balancing moose population with timber production and economic objectives. Sjølie, Hanne K. Lopez, Lucas Franklin, Oskar Kalen, Christer 2026-05-31 Exposition aux aléas climatiques des ménages et de leur patrimoine immobilier : une évaluation de la situation française https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05627212&r=&r=env Avec le changement climatique, les al´eas climatiques seront plus fr´equents et plus intenses, augmentant les risques pour les populations et leur logement. Cette ´etude pro- pose une cartographie des risques climatiques en France, `a climat actuel et en projection jusqu'`a la fin du si`ecle sous deux sc´enarios climatiques. Elle s'appuie sur des donn´ees exhaustives d´ecrivant les caract´eristiques des m´enages, qu'ils soient occupants ou pro- pri´etaires, le patrimoine immobilier et sa valeur, ainsi que les conditions climatiques, pour caract´eriser finement les populations expos´ees. Quatre al´eas sont ´etudi´es : retrait-gonflement des argiles (RGA), feux de forˆet, inon- dations par d´ebordement et submersion marine. Actuellement, 47 % des logements sont expos´es `a au moins un al´ea climatique. Le RGA est l'al´ea le plus r´epandu avec 34 % des logements expos´es suivi des feux de forˆet (13 %). Ces deux al´eas touchent surtout les zones rurales, tandis que les inondations et la submersion marine apparaissent comme des menaces plus urbaines. Le profil des populations expos´ees d´epend du type de risque et de sa localisation. Mathias André Inès Moutachaker Sacha Nass Julie Sixou patrimoine, immobilier, Risques climatiques 2025-11-25 Rice productivity and profitability in Myanmar: Assessment of the 2025 monsoon season https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:183098&r=&r=env We analyzed rice productivity and profitability data for the 2025 monsoon season from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS), conducted at the beginning of 2026. The survey covered plots managed by 2, 734 rice producers across all states and regions of the country. As no MAPS survey was conducted during the 2024 monsoon season, we compare performance changes with those observed in 2023. Our findings reveal the following: 1. National rice productivity, measured on farmers’ largest plots, declined by an average of 8 percent during the 2025 monsoon compared to 2023. This lower productivity was primarily driven by reduced incentives for production as shown by reduced labor inputs, with more farmers adopting broadcasting methods, as well as an increased incidence of natural shocks, notably floods and heavy rains. 2. The Delta agro-ecological zone, the country’s principal rice-producing area, experienced a 7 percent decline in rice productivity in 2025 compared to 2023, while the Coastal agro-ecological zone recorded the largest decline among all zones, with yields falling by 22 percent. This sharp reduction was partly driven by poor performance in Rakhine State, which was largely cut off from commercial input and output markets in 2025, considerably reducing the use of modern inputs in rice production. 3. Thirty-six percent of paddy farmers reported being affected by climatic or other production shocks during the 2025 monsoon season. Floods, reported by 10 percent of farmers, and heavy rains, reported by 15 percent, had significant adverse effects on yields. Among affected farmers, paddy yields declined by 34 percent and 15 percent, respectively. 4. Significant changes in rice cultivation input costs were observed between the 2023 and 2025 monsoon seasons. Prices of urea, the most important chemical fertilizer used by rice farmers, increased by 23 percent, while mechanization costs, measured through plowing costs, increased by 55 percent. Wages recorded the sharpest increases, likely reflecting escalating rural labor scarcity. Wages increased by 88 percent for men and 83 percent for women. Overall input expenditures per acre of rice cultivated increased by 63 percent. 5. Farmgate paddy prices declined by 6 percent, reflecting changes in international rice prices between the 2023 and 2025 monsoon seasons. 6. Given rising input costs and declining paddy prices, paddy farming profits declined substantially and reached their lowest level in the last six years. Nominal profits per acre fell by 40 percent between 2023 and 2025. 7. Commercially obtained inputs are significantly associated with higher rice yields. A doubling of commercial input expenditures is associated with a 34 percent increase in yields, while a doubling of chemical fertilizer use is associated with a 9 percent increase in yields, ceteris paribus. The use of organic fertilizer is also positively and significantly associated with higher yields, with users obtaining yields that are 4 percent higher on average. The outlook for paddy production in 2026 appears highly uncertain due to several factors: 1. The Iran war: High fuel prices, as well as constrained fuel availability resulting from the Iran war, are likely to complicate transportation, irrigation, and agricultural mechanization, thereby affecting preparation for the next monsoon season. Fertilizer prices have also risen sharply and are expected to remain elevated for the foreseeable future (Arita et al. 2026), with likely negative consequences for use rates and profitability for paddy production during the 2026 monsoon (USDA 2026). 2. Weather conditions: Adverse weather conditions, as observed during the 2025 monsoon, can significantly affect yields. Most climate models predict El Niño conditions during the second half of 2026. These conditions are typically associated with drier-than-average rainfall, which could lead to lower rice yields. 3. Evolution of insecurity: Insecurity is associated with reduced access to agricultural inputs and higher input costs where inputs remain available, thereby reducing profitability for farmers in these areas. 4. Labor scarcity: Labor availability is expected to remain constrained during the next monsoon season due to significant out-migration (linked to the Military Service Law). These findings point to three key implications for Myanmar’s rice sector: 1. Ensuring access to agricultural inputs: Myanmar’s rice sector is highly commercialized, and access to commercial inputs is crucial for its performance. Risks associated with the Iran war, particularly regarding fuel and chemical fertilizer availability and prices, pose serious challenges for the functioning of the sector. While some commercial inputs could potentially be partially substituted with local production factors, such as agricultural labor replacing mechanized operations or organic fertilizers substituting for chemical fertilizers, a lack of access to these commercial inputs would nevertheless have major implications for rice production and national food security. Where feasible, encouraging such substitution may help mitigate some of these impacts. 2. Expanding access to climate-resilient seeds and other climate-smart agricultural technologies: As farmers are increasingly relying on self-preserved paddy seeds, there is an urgent need for them to have access to and to promote improved, high-yielding, and stress-tolerant rice varieties. Our findings show that farmers affected by floods and droughts experience substantially lower yields than unaffected farmers. Given the expected increase in weather-related shocks associated with climate change, as well as anticipated El Niño conditions, wider adoption of adapted seed varieties as well as other climate-smart agricultural technologies will be critical. 3. Ensuring profitability in rice farming: Rice farming profitability was severely stressed in 2025. This raises concerns about production incentives for the upcoming monsoon season, particularly as input costs continue to rise while rice prices – at least internationally – remain stagnant. Adjustment of the dual exchange rate system that currently depresses output prices would be beneficial. Ensuring adequate rice availability in the country may also require expanded access to credit schemes, or targeted input voucher programs for poorer smallholders, to sustain production and national food security. Aung, Zin Wai Minten, Bart rice; agricultural productivity; profitability; monsoon climate; wet season; farm inputs; Myanmar; Asia; South-eastern Asia 2026-05-27 PSAE-Brief n° 17 - The CREST-PSAE Workshop on Food Labels and Score-conomics: Main Results and Open Questions https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05639981&r=&r=env Stephan Marette Molina Hugo Hollard Guillaume Allais Olivier Charbonnieras Lucie Dora El Ghewa Kiesel Kristin Laporte Marie-Eve Nabec Lydiane Paroissien Emmanuel Pivard Jérôme Saint-Eve Anne Vargas Andrea 2026-05-28 A Carrot without a Stick? The impact of a voluntary cap-and-trade system on economic performance inside manufacturing plants: Evidence from the Japanese ETS https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:26048&r=&r=env Characterized by higher political acceptability, voluntary environmental policies are becoming increasingly popular, but their effect on economic activity is unclear. In this research, we evaluated the impact of a voluntary cap-and-trade system on the economic performance of manufacturing plants, analyzing the case of the Japanese Saitama ETS (SETS), implemented in 2011. This policy was implemented more than a decade ago, but little is known about its economic impact. We utilize a rich dataset containing data from Japanese plants from 2004 to 2019 and estimate the average treatment effect of the policy using DiD and PSM methods. Our results showed that SETS had a positive effect on value added, estimated between 6.07% to 27.92%, compared with non-targeted plants. This policy also had a positive impact on employment, as wages are shown to increase by 3.66%, along with increased labor productivity (5.26%) of similar magnitude. The positive effects of the policy are mostly experienced by plants in non-energy-intensive sectors, as well as plants belonging to SMEs. The policy also did not affect the plants’ competitiveness, as increases in total costs are compensated by higher revenue. Aline MORTHA Toshi H. ARIMURA 2026-06 Enclosed by Walls, Embraced by Trees: Effects of Indoor Residential Crowding and Outdoor Green Space on Mental Health https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8nkp5_v1&r=&r=env Despite growing interest in how the urban built environment influences mental health, few studies have examined them across indoor-outdoor domains and subgroups. Using survey data from Beijing, we find that both residential crowding (indoor) and neighborhood green space (outdoor) are linked to depression risk. Specifically, residential crowding mainly affects local residents, while green space mainly affects migrants, with these effects varying by gender and family structure. The findings highlight that built environment inequality leads to health disparities, and planning strategies promoting mental health should address both indoor and outdoor factors and be tailored to the needs of specific vulnerable groups. Wang, Xuelu Liu, Tao Wang, Xize 2026-05-29 A dual-level framework for promoting lesser-known Points of Interest in mountain regions https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05638231&r=&r=env Overtourism increasingly threatens mountain regions, damaging ecosystems and compromising residents' quality of life. This phenomenon concentrates visitors at a few overcrowded Points of Interest (POIs) while leaving other sites, referred to as lesser-known POIs, undervalued. To address this, our study proposes a dual-level framework structured across: a macro-level analysis of the broader territory, and a micro-level view of specific POIs. This enables the development of indicators (e.g., carrying capacity and lesser-known scores) aiming to balance the promotion of undervalued sites with the preservation of their sustainability. The integration of these metrics supports a more responsible redistribution of tourist flows, fostering a sustainable spatial distribution of visitors throughout the territory. Adriana Pompejano Sébastien Laborie Bianca Tescașiu Christian Sallaberry Maxime Masson Philippe Roose Points of Interest, Sustainable Tourism, Recommender systems, Multi-scale analysis, Heterogeneous Data Integration, Lesser-known POIs, Overtourism 2026-05-26 From global biodiversity commitments to local action: revenue potential and allocation dynamics of the Cali Fund https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138657&r=&r=env Established at CBD COP16 in 2024, the Cali Fund is the first global mechanism requiring private companies benefiting from genetic data to share 1% of their profits or 0.1% of revenues, with biodiversity-rich countries and local communities. I provide the first global firm-level estimates of the fund’s revenue potential and a systematic analysis of its distributional properties on both the contribution and allocation sides under alternative design choices, using firm-level data for 21, 690 eligible companies across 100 countries. Under realistic voluntary uptake, annual contributions would reach approximately $0.9 billion, rising to $3.6 billion under full participation. The revenue base is narrow: two sectors account for 51% of contributions under full compliance and the top 100 contributors for 27.6%. Under realistic voluntary uptake, sectoral composition shifts further, with pharmaceuticals alone accounting for nearly 50% of expected revenues under the central scenario. For most sectors the payment rule ties contributions directly to profitability, making fund revenues sensitive to economic conditions: firms clustered near the zero-profit threshold can move in and out of contribution obligations as profits fluctuate. Pharmaceuticals is the exception: most eligible firms in this sector pay on revenue regardless of profit swings, providing a stable base but making overall fund revenues heavily dependent on pharmaceutical participation. On the recipient side, the distribution of who receives how much is largely determined by the way the allocation formula is designed. Prioritising the geographic origin of genetic data channels nearly half of all resources to wealthy research economies while African States receive 6.4%. The mathematical form of the formula also matters: the formula and normalisation method together can shift allocations by up to 13 percentage points away from Western countries without changing any stated weight. With both contribution rules and allocation criteria still open for revision at COP17 in October 2026, the paper shows these choices are not distributionally neutral. ications in which parameters are interpreted cautiously as reduced-form components rather than direct measures of underlying behavioural channels. The dissertation first revisits Lotka’s systems perspective and uses it to organise DEMs relevant to demography within a common formulation that separates population state variables from time-varying characteristics or environmental conditions. DEMs are grouped into basic growth, dynamic heterogeneity, and structural heterogeneity families, and a practical workflow is outlined: initial conditions, analytic versus numerical solutions, and parameter estimation by non-linear least squares supported by global optimisation. It also discusses why DEMs have seen limited development in demography and summarises their strengths, limitations, and potential applications. The empirical chapters develop and apply two fertility models using cohort schedules from the Human Fertility Database. Chapter 4 models cohort first-birth timing by extending Bass diffusion model and introducing a simplified two-type representation of latent heterogeneity under outcome observability. Chapter 5 extends the framework to birth-order dynamics by jointly modelling multiple-birth schedules. The specification embeds parity progression, uses neighbouring cohorts to construct reference-set indices, and includes a joint exposure term. Overall, the dissertation shows how DEMs can be implemented with standard cohort schedules to provide compact summaries of fertility timing and sequencing, while highlighting directions for future work on measurement and social interaction structure. Makowska-Curran, Agata digital sequence information; benefit-sharing; biodiversity finance; Cali Fund; multilateral mechanisms; allocation formula; firm-level data 2026-06-03 Financing Nature:Investment Funds and Biodiversity Risks https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2026-41&r=&r=env How do international investors adjust portfolios in response to biodiversity risk? Using monthly data on investment fund portfolios, we show that the 2021 Kunming Declaration led fund managers to reallocate portfolios from high-biodiversity risk countries to less risky ones, while ultimate fund investors remained unresponsive. Fund managers reduced exposures to extremely high biodiversity risk without seizing low biodiversity risk as an opportunity for profit, characterizing biodiversity as downside risk factor. Investment funds drive cross-country spillovers as the reallocation triggers significant capital flows beneï¬ ting countries in the same geographic region, but outside of a fund's hitherto established portfolio. Using a novel measure of legal action to protect nature, we demonstrate that countries adopting more legal acts are partially shielded from funds reducing their exposure to high-biodiversity risk countries. Daniel Marcel te Kaat Alexander Raabe biodiversity, risk, portfolio reallocation, cross-border capital flows, spillovers, investment fund, Kunming Declaration 2026-06 Perception des vins issus de variétés hybrides par les acteurs de la filière québécoise https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05628775&r=&r=env Perception des vins issus de variétés hybrides par les acteurs de la filièreQuébécoise Caroline Paire Karine Pedneault Paméla Nicolle Québec, Vin, Perception des consommateurs, Variété hybride 2026-04-10 Evaluating the Regulatory Impacts of Chemicals Laws on South Korean Manufacturing https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:022847&r=&r=env In South Korea, there are two major laws designed to improve safety management in the chemicals industry: The Act on the Registration and Evaluation of Chemical Substances (K-REACH) and the Chemical Substances Control Act. This study employs a Difference-in-Differences model to empirically analyze the effects of these important pieces of legislation on the domestic chemicals industry.<p> The analysis shows that while the overall industrial shock of these laws was limited, some regional economies experienced significant declines in manufacturing value added. The analysis also found a short-term rise in R&D spending following the implementation of the new laws’ provisions, highlighting their potential to catalyze technological innovation. The conclusion describes the implications the analysis carries for policy, proposing that a tailored policy framework that provides targeted support for vulnerable regions and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) is essential to facilitate environmental safety while ensuring long-term industrial resilience. Sangwon Lee chemicals; chemicals industry; petrochemicals; industrial policy; regulatory reform; regulation; K-REACH; Chemical Substances Control Act; CBCA; regional economics; policy evaluation 2026 Repensar la regulación de los mercados agrícolas para lograr la transición agroecológica en Europa https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/408393&r=&r=env Laurence Roudart Lou Plateau 2026-02-01 A Note on Pollution Cleanup Investments, Signaling, Ganges River Resilience, and Lessons for Europe https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129356&r=&r=env We study pollution cleanup investments, signaling, and the resilience of the Ganges river when investors differ in capability and cleanup projects differ in their ability to enhance resilience. First, we derive the minimal level of signaling necessary to sustain a separating equilibrium in which the government agency can distinguish between more and less capable investors. Larger cleanup efforts require greater signaling, although the marginal increase in signaling declines as the scale of cleanup expands. Second, we analyze the benchmark case in which signaling is impossible. Here, more and less capable investors choose the more resilience enhancing cleanup projects because the expected payment from these projects is larger than the payment from less resilience enhancing projects. Hence, eliminating signaling raises investor welfare and encourages projects that are more beneficial for the resilience of the Ganges. Batabyal, Amitrajeet Ganges River, Investment, Pollution Cleanup, Resilience, Signaling 2026-04-03 Mechanism Design over Magnitude: A Multi-Jurisdiction Evaluation of Carrot-Policy Effectiveness in Clean-Hydrogen Implementation https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129309&r=&r=env We evaluate six major clean-hydrogen policy interventions across four jurisdictions (US 45Q, US 45V three-pillars NPRM, EU Innovation Fund, EU CBAM, UK Track-1, China 14th Five-Year Plan) using a project-level panel of 1, 354 announced hydrogen developments from the S&P Global Hydrogen Project Database (2010-2026). Treatment effects on cumulative cancellation probability are estimated using modern difference-in-differences estimators (Sun-Abraham IW, Borusyak-Jaravel-Spiess imputation, IPWRA matching, Synthetic DiD, Causal Forests, and Deaner-Ku hazard DiD) and accompanied by Rambachan-Roth honest-sensitivity bounds. Three substantive findings emerge. First, the magnitude ranking of policy effects (China 14th FYP > US 45Q > UK Track-1 > EU Innovation Fund) systematically follows the number of economic frictions each instrument addresses, not the per-unit monetary value of the subsidy. The China FYP estimate of -4.5 percentage points (honest-DiD breakdown M* = 1.5) exceeds the US 45Q estimate of -3.4 percentage points (M* = 0.2) despite comparable per-unit subsidy value, consistent with multi-friction mechanism dominance. Second, two informative nulls are identified: the EU Innovation Fund produces a precise null across six convergent estimators, and the EU CBAM produces a precise null across eight convergent estimators. The substantive interpretation is that the financing-constraint friction is not binding in the contemporary capital-abundant hydrogen environment, and that border-adjustment transmission to project-level investment decisions is weak in the early-implementation phase. Third, the US 45V three-pillars NPRM triple-difference estimate of +0.285 on US-Green cancellation hazard identifies friction amplification by policy design - the cleanest empirical test of perverse-direction sigma-channel effects in the sample. The methodological contribution is a pre-registered mechanism-falsifiability framework that disciplines mechanism interpretation against post-hoc rationalisation, combined with multi-method triangulation that strengthens both confirmatory and informative-null inferences. The policy implication is that reform of capex-grant instruments such as the EU Innovation Fund should incorporate offtake-commitment eligibility requirements, jointly addressing both financing and counterparty-risk frictions. Saakstra, Sake difference-in-differences, honest sensitivity, clean hydrogen, carbon pricing, policy evaluation, mechanism design, carbon border adjustment 2026-05-28 Collective security in a fragmented world: avoiding the scramble for critical minerals through coordinated stockpiling https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138718&r=&r=env Miller, Hugh Morandi, Pau 2026-06 Cross-Scale Fractal Coherence: Hierarchical Multifractal Analysis of Urban Form and Environmental Stress in Four U.S. Megacities https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:85zr7_v1&r=&r=env Urban morphology has traditionally been studied through single-layer Euclidean descriptors, yet the cross-scale architecture of cities — how parcels, buildings, and blocks cohere hierarchically — remains poorly quantified. This paper develops a hierarchical fractal framework that simultaneously characterizes self-similarity, multifractality, and cross-scale coherence at three nested morphological scales. Using a 2020 geodatabase of 134, 863 census blocks across four U.S. megacities (New York, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles) containing 7.3 million parcel polygons and 4.4 million building footprints, we compute box-counting fractal dimensions, gliding-box lacunarity, and the multifractal spectrum f(α) at block, parcel, and building scales. We introduce three novel indices — the Multifractal Heterogeneity Score (MHS), the Fractal Harmony Index (FHI), and Cross-Scale Consistency (CSC) — to operationalize hierarchical coherence. Pooled and city-stratified models reveal that hierarchical-fractal descriptors explain up to 78% of crash risk variance and 70% of PM2.5 variance, with threshold non-linearities consistent with the Edge-of-Chaos hypothesis. City-specific analyses expose a Simpson’s paradox masked in pooled correlations and demonstrate that effective morphological interventions must be city-tailored. The findings argue for a shift from single-layer Euclidean planning to complexity-informed design anchored in cross-scale fractal balance. Mansourihanis, Omid Wang, Xuantong 2026-05-31 Energy Crisis Relief as Implicit Insurance: Fossil Import Dependence and Policy Design https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:econpb:_84&r=&r=env Key MessagesEuropean economies rely heavily on fossil fuel imports and are exposed to global price shocksRelief measures face a trilemma: targeting, incentives, and feasibility rarely alignRelief measures can function as taxpayerfinanced implicit insurance against energy crisesBased on recent crisis responses, relief implies EU-wide permanent subsidies of around EUR18/tCO₂ (gas) and EUR 10/tCO₂ (oil)Such implicit subsidies weaken incentives to reduce fossil dependence and increase vulnerability to future crises Timothé Beaufils Ulrich Eydam Maik Heinemann Matthias Kalkuhl Nikolaj Moretti Andreas Peichl Philipp M. Richter Joschka Wanner 2026 De-risking renewable energy investments: Assessing contract design and project finance using operational wind park data https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.23400&r=&r=env Investment in renewable electricity generation is highly capital intensive and therefore strongly dependent on financing conditions. In Europe, much of this investment has occurred under public support schemes that resemble long-term public contracts such as feed-in tariffs (FiTs) and contracts-for-differences (CfDs). These contracts not only subsidize renewable generation but also stabilize project cash flows by reducing exposure to electricity price volatility, thereby improving debt capacity and lowering financing costs. At the same time, they may distort operational and investment incentives by weakening exposure to wholesale market price signals. This paper studies how alternative public contract designs reduce revenue risk and how this translates into financing outcomes. Using a novel dataset of hourly turbine-level generation covering 63 German onshore wind parks over the period 2013-2024, we simulate project cash flows under two-sided CfDs, one-sided CfDs, and financial CfDs. We then evaluate their implications for cash-flow volatility, debt capacity, and the levelized cost of electricity using a project finance model based on a conservative debt-service coverage ratio (DSCR) constraint. We find that financial CfDs provide hedging performance comparable to conventional two-sided CfDs. The results suggest that the commonly assumed trade-off between revenue stabilization and efficient market integration is not inherent but depends on contract design. More broadly, public contracts can substitute missing long-term hedging markets. These results have direct policy implications for the design of renewable energy support schemes. Jorge S\'anchez Canales Lion Hirth 2026-05 The Economic Impact of Tennessee Forest Product Exports in 2024 https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:utaeer:404148&r=&r=env This report examines the economic impact of Tennessee’s forest product exports, and analyzes export changes in 2024, while considering destination countries (e.g., China, European Union) and product categories (e.g., oak lumber, hardwood logs, barrels). Additionally, it evaluates the overall economic impact of export sales on income and employment at the state level. In brief, here are the main highlights from 2024. Muhammad, Andrew Menard, R. Jamey Taylor, Adam Resource/Energy Economics and Policy 2026-05-11 On the Nature of Things: Designing Macroeconomic Scenarios of Nature-related risks for France https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:1046&r=&r=env This paper explores the macroeconomic implications of nature-related risks for France through a forward-looking scenario analysis. We first identify and prioritize key nature-related shocks with potential macroeconomic relevance. Using a multi-country semi-structural model, we then design two illustrative scenarios: one focused on water-related shocks - combining chronic scarcity, declining quality, and acute disruptions - and another on agricultural shocks, including domestic yield losses and a multiple breadbasket failure. The simulations suggest that both scenarios generate material impacts on economic activity and inflation in France. Water-related shocks lead to a stagflationary episode marked by a sharp and persistent decline in output and rising prices, while agricultural shocks result in deeper output losses due to global spillovers and food price surges. These findings highlight the macro-economic relevance of nature-related risks and call for further work on their implications for financial stability. Lauriane Benoist Stéphane Dees Elise Kremer Clément Payerols Oriane Wegner Nature-related risks, Ecosystem services, Macro-economic modeling, Scenario analysis 2026 The business climate indicator: an updated tool for assessing the state of the economy https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:econot:453&r=&r=env Monitoring the state of the economy in real time is a key challenge in the analysis of economic conditions. Drawing on its monthly surveys, the Banque de France has updated its business climate indicators, which provide a quick and directly interpretable overview of business activity Over the recent period, the aggregate indicator points to positive – but below trend rate – growth. <p> Suivre l’état de l’économie en temps réel constitue un enjeu central pour l’analyse conjoncturelle. À partir de ses enquêtes mensuelles, la Banque de France a rénové ses indicateurs du climat des affaires, qui offrent une lecture rapide et directement interprétable de l’activité. Sur la période récente, l’indicateur agrégé indique une croissance positive, mais inférieure à son rythme tendanciel. Véronique Genre Stéphanie Himpens Léo Parpais 2026-06-09 Strengthening Project Vault: The US plan to stockpile critical minerals https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb26-8&r=&r=env The United States depends heavily on imported critical minerals, including rare earth elements, needed for semiconductors, renewable energy, AI expansion, and defense systems. Because supply disruptions could seriously harm the economy and national security, the US government has launched Project Vault, a $12 billion public-private program to stockpile emergency supplies of critical minerals. Funded by a $10 billion EXIM Bank loan and $2 billion in private capital, the project is aimed at reducing reliance on foreign suppliers, particularly China, and protecting American--and eventually allied-country--manufacturers from shortages. Project Vault's design, however, raises important questions about its durability and day-to-day operations. Key Takeaways - Unlike the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Project Vault is designed as insurance against systemwide supply shocks, relying on private firms that pay subscription fees for access to reserves during disruptions, which makes it a hybrid of a futures market and a strategic reserve. - Voluntary participation would exclude both large self-insuring firms and small enterprises unaware of their exposure, hollowing out the risk pool in ways that could cause the program to fail when it is needed most. - Storing 60 highly differentiated minerals and processed derivatives is far more complex than stockpiling oil because supplies can degrade over time and often need to be processed to be usable during a crisis. - To be effective, Project Vault should require mandatory participation with fees scaled to firm size, fund against worst-case collective supply shocks, and prioritize processed materials over raw ore. - In the near term, building reserves of processed materials would likely depend on Chinese suppliers, making long-term investment in US and allied processing capacity critical. Cullen S. Hendrix 2026-05 Explaining the atomistic versus ecological fallacies in SES-health gradients https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138666&r=&r=env A large literature in economics and public health studies the relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) and health, often relying on area-based measures when individual data are unavailable. Using comprehensive Dutch administrative data, we examine how data aggregation shapes estimated income-health gradients through ecological and atomistic biases. Individual and area income capture distinct but correlated channels, such as personal resources and local conditions. Spatial aggregation reduces variation and attenuates nonlinearities, leading area-level estimates to overstate gradients and reduce robustness to controls. Interaction analyses reveal unequal exposure: Health of low-income households appears substantially more sensitive to neighborhood conditions than that of high-income households. Parker, William Spinnewijn, Johannes 2026-05-01