Energy Economics http://lists.repec.org/mailman/listinfo/nep-ene Energy Economics 2026-03-30 On the predictability of the effects of data centers electricity demand shocks https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:131588&r=&r=ene The paper shows that the entry of data centers in the electricity market leads to price and consumption effects observed in the real world that were quite predictable from a simple conceptual modelling exercise. The size of the associated welfare losses is sensitive to specific electricity market characteristics, explaining why they are often not comparable across regions or countries. In general, the historical users are likely to be worse off in the short run. They will recover their losses in the longer run, but only if the entrant finances its own capacity needs and if the data centers do not have excessive bargaining power. The differences in possible outcomes according to context suggests that one-size-fits-all policies to manage the shock across countries or regions will fail to mitigate undesirable effects in some contexts. Crampes, Claude Estache, Antonio Data centers; Electricity; Pricing; Regulation; Incidence 2026-03-16 "Partisan Climate Action, Utility Interests, and Policy Choice in the U.S. Power Sector" https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202524&r=&r=ene This paper investigates how U.S. gubernatorial partisanship and electric utility interests jointly shape the adoption and stringency of three widely used electricity-sector climate policies: greenhouse gas cap-and-trade, emissions standards, and renewable portfolio standards. Using panel data for 48 states over 29 years, this study applies difference-indifferences and regression discontinuity designs that exploit within-state partisan alternation and quasi-random variation from close gubernatorial elections. The results indicate that Democratic governorships associate with higher probabilities of policy adoption and greater stringency than Republican ones. However, these partisan effects attenuate in states with fossil-intensive utility capacity and strengthen in renewable-rich states, particularly for discretionary and mandatory renewable portfolio standards. This work extends the empirical political economy literature by comparing instrument choice and stringency across three major electricity-sector climate policies and by evaluating how utility sector composition and reelection incentives moderate or amplify partisan influence. The findings highlight that electricity-sector decarbonization strategies need to account for both environmental externalities and the local political-economic conditions that shape feasible policy options. Witson Peña Tello Climate Policies; Political Parties; Electric Utility Interests. JEL classification: D72; L94; Q42; Q48; Q54. 2025-12 Evaluating India's Energy Ambitions: Evidence from Electricity Generation Project-Level Data https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bjd:wpaper:18&r=&r=ene This paper uses data on electricity projects from the CapEx database maintained by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) and estimates that India is likely to fall short of the optimal capacity requirement identified by the Central Electricity Authority for 2030. The shortfall stems from delays in the implementation and completion of projects. The paper finds that 30% of conventional and 39% of renewable energy projects ever announced have been completed, accounting for 15% and 9% of the total announced capacity, respectively, highlighting the difficulty in completing large-scale projects. Completion timelines are shorter for privately developed renewable and conventional projects, with the top 50 renewable energy developers outperforming others. Completion outcomes also differ by energy type, with solar and wind projects having the lowest completion timelines and the highest completion rates. These findings highlight the need for more targeted policy designs that account for the impact of these factors on project timelines, to ensure that the planned capacity translates into actual electricity supply needed to meet India's future demands. Upasa Borah Akshay Jaitly Renuka Sane 2026-03 Market Power and Platform Design in Decentralized Electricity Trading https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.19988&r=&r=ene This paper studies how platform design shapes strategic behavior in decentralized electricity trading. We develop a finite-horizon dynamic game in which photovoltaic- and battery-equipped players ("prosumers") trade on a platform that maps aggregate imports and exports into internal buy and sell prices. We establish existence of a perfect conditional epsilon-equilibrium and characterize a Cournot-like market-power mechanism in an observable-types benchmark of the game: because the producer price is decreasing in aggregate exports, strategic prosumers withhold supply and underutilize storage relative to the price-taking benchmark. To quantify these effects, we use a multi-agent computational framework that exploits the differentiable structure of the platform's clearing rule to compare planner, price-taking, and strategic outcomes under alternative pricing mechanisms. In our baseline calibration, strategic play raises grid settlement cost by about 6 percent relative to price-taking. The magnitude of the distortion depends strongly on platform design: some designs can largely eliminate strategic incentives, while increased competition in storage ownership sharply reduces withholding, with most of the distortion disappearing once storage is split across more than three owners. We also find that information disclosure can improve competitive coordination but also increase the market power effects. Despite these distortions, the platform remains highly valuable overall, reducing a passive consumer's annual electricity bill by roughly 40 percent relative to exclusive grid settlement, with strategic behavior clawing back only about 8 percent of that saving. The results show that pricing rules, information disclosure, and ownership structure determine how much of the gains from decentralized electricity trading are realized. Nicolas Eschenbaum Nicolas Greber 2026-03 The gravity of electromobility. An early investigation of structural change in automotive industry https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2026122&r=&r=ene In this paper we examine the role of the electromobility transformation for exports of the automotive sector. To do so, we propose a novel mapping of granular codes of automotive products into three categories: (i) combustion-specific, (ii) neutral, and (iii) electric-specific. We estimate a standard gravity model of the trade flows of automotive products, comparing the three categories with each other. We demonstrate that key drivers of export of the electric-specific products are similar to the combustion-specific ones. However, exports related to electric vehicles are more technologically intensive and supported by either a domestic R&D potential or international knowledge spillovers through FDI. In particular, export-oriented production of electric-specific intermediates proves to be to a large extent R&D intensive. Our results also suggest that the ongoing structural change in the automotive industry leads rather to intra-industry reorganization than to more fundamental restructuring of existing Global Value Chains. Jan Baran Patryk Czechowski Jakub Mućk automotive industry, international trade, gravity model of trade, structural change, electric vehicles, electromobility, Global Value Chains 2026-03 "Municipal tax incentives and solar PV adoption: Causal evidence from Catalonia" https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202605&r=&r=ene This paper estimates the causal impact of municipal property tax exemptions on the adoption of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in Catalonia. Using a balanced monthly panel of municipalities from 2015 to 2022, we employ a difference-in-differences (DiD) framework with staggered policy implementation. The exemption increased installed PV capacity by 36% and led to roughly one additional installation per treated municipality per month. Focusing on residential installations, we find that 80% of the tax exempt installations would have occurred even without the policy, implying an implicit abatement cost of €142 per tonne of CO2. Heterogeneity analysis shows limited variation across structural and socioeconomic contexts. Overall, the policy was moderately effective but only partially efficient, suggesting that more targeted design could enhance its cost-effectiveness. Lynn van Raalte Jordi J. Teixidó Solar PV Adoption; Property Tax Exemption; Causal Inference; Staggered Difference-in-Differences; Municipal Climate policy; Catalonia. JEL classification: Q42; H23; Q48; C21. 2026-01 Oil Laundering: How did Russian oil circumvent the European Union’s embargo? https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:26024&r=&r=ene This paper examines whether the EU’s 2022 embargo on Russian crude and refined oil unintentionally encouraged “oil laundering” through third‑country refiners. After the ban, Russian crude prices fell, creating strong incentives for countries such as China, India, Turkey, Singapore, and the UAE to purchase discounted Russian oil, refine it, and legally re‑export the resulting petroleum products to the EU. Using a gravity‑model framework and event‑study analysis, we show sharp and synchronized shifts in trade flows: Russian crude exports to laundromat countries surged dramatically after 2022, while EU imports of refined products from these same countries rose significantly in 2023 and 2024. These patterns suggest that Russian oil entered the EU indirectly through third‑country refining. China and India appear to be the primary intermediaries. In contrast, other sanctioning countries such as the U.S., Canada, Australia, and Japan show no similar increase, and EU members exempt from the embargo also display no laundering‑related import changes. Tadashi ITO Kiyoyasu TANAKA 2026-03 The Rich, The Poor, and The Carbon Tax https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2026006&r=&r=ene Recent empirical evidence reveals an income gradient in support for climate action: individuals in wealthier countries are less willing to pay than those in poorer ones. What explains this gradient, and what does it imply for international cooperation to protect the Earth’s climate? We answer these questions using a heterogeneous-country integrated assessment model formulated as a mean field game and calibrated to historical economic and climate data. Poorer countries, facing higher marginal utility of consumption, cut consumption less to cushion the decline in capital accumulation caused by climate damages. As a result, they suffer larger relative losses from climate change and gain more from mitigation, making them more inclined to accept a global carbon tax. This gradient has stark implications for cooperation: even when a carbon tax large enough to contain temperature increases benefits most countries, the richest might oppose. Redistributing global carbon tax proceeds uniformly across countries or recycling them as green investment subsidies need not overcome this reluctance. Pablo Garcia Sanchez Olivier Pierrard Neoclassical Growth Model; Mean Field Game; Climate Policy 2026-02-27 Fighting over Environmental Salience https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bav:wpaper:247_eitel_schmitt.rdf&r=&r=ene When consumers prefer to buy goods with high environmental quality and firms differ in their environmental qualities, firms have incentives to fight over environ mental salience and thereby influence consumers’ attention to the environmental dimension of the goods. A green firm prefers environmental quality to be salient, while a brown firm prefers environmental quality to remain shrouded. We model the firms’ fight over salience as an advertising contest. We show that the firm with the competitive advantage invests more into the salience contest. Whether such a contest increases social welfare depends on the level of environmental differentiation and the marginal damage of emissions. In addition, we show that the contest is an (imperfect) substitute for emission taxes and subsidies and that minimum standards may increase emissions and decrease welfare. Stephan Eitel Stefanie Y. Schmitt contest, emissions, environmental quality, environmental policies, salience. 2026-03 Port emissions and abatement investments in an international oligopoly: a tale of three policies https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pie:dsedps:2026/329&r=&r=ene This paper investigates three different port air emissions abatement measures– i) emission taxes, ii) subsidies on abatement technology investments and iii) emission standard–in a reciprocal trade model, where two firms (one firm located in each country) compete choosing the quantity to export and the quantity of domestic market. To export, firms need two ports, one located in each country, and each country’s government chooses a policy to regulate pollution produced by its port. We aim at investigating how shipping costs and the port ownership shape the incentives towards exports and abatement of both the port and government in each country. The analysis points out the relative effectiveness of alternative policies in achieving environmental sustainability and society’s welfare objectives. Specifically, the environmental damage is minimized under emission standard regardless of any degree of port privatization. However, emission standards turn out to never dominate the other policies in the perspective of consumer surplus and overall domestic welfare. Depending on the degree of port privatization, either environmental taxes or abatement subsidies result as the domesticwelfare-maximizing policy, but only environmental taxes emerge as endogenous choice by governments. Giulia Rossello Domenico Buccella Nicola Meccheri Marcella Scrimitore international oligopoly, port privatization, emission tax, abatement subsidy, environmental standard, welfare 2026-03-01 Natural Resource and Local Communities: Evidence from Ghana’s offshore oil and gas https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2026-02&r=&r=ene In 2007, Kosmos Energy and Tullow Oil found Ghana’s most significant column of high-grade offshore oil and gas. In this paper, I use geocoded household data to examine the socio-economic effects of this oil and gas discovery on the local communities. I conduct two quasi-experimental analysis and find that oil and gas discovery increased real income for households close to the fields, with the benefits being larger for households in districts with a high proportion of skilled workers and limited to non-poor districts. However, there is no apparent effect on employment, total consumption expenditure and poverty. Patricia Agyapong natural resources; oil and gas; local economic impacts; household welfare; spatial difference-in-differences; Ghana 2026 AI Token Futures Market: Commoditization of Compute and Derivatives Contract Design https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.21690&r=&r=ene As large language models (LLMs) and vision-language-action models (VLAs) become widely deployed, the tokens consumed by AI inference are evolving into a new type of commodity. This paper systematically analyzes the commodity attributes of tokens, arguing for their transition from intelligent service outputs to compute infrastructure raw materials, and draws comparisons with established commodities such as electricity, carbon emission allowances, and bandwidth. Building on the historical experience of electricity futures markets and the theory of commodity financialization, we propose a complete design for standardized token futures contracts, including the definition of a Standard Inference Token (SIT), contract specifications, settlement mechanisms, margin systems, and market-maker regimes. By constructing a mean-reverting jump-diffusion stochastic process model and conducting Monte Carlo simulations, we evaluate the hedging efficiency of the proposed futures contracts for application-layer enterprises. Simulation results show that, under an application-layer demand explosion scenario, token futures can reduce enterprise compute cost volatility by 62%-78%. We also explore the feasibility of GPU compute futures and discuss the regulatory framework for token futures markets, providing a theoretical foundation and practical roadmap for the financialization of compute resources. Yicai Xing 2026-03 Cross-border impacts of nuclear phase-out policies on the European power system: Economic and environmental insights for strategic energy planning https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05548319&r=&r=ene The European power system plays a strategic role in reducing dependence on fossil fuels while contributing to reaching Europe's CO2 emissions targets. The energy crisis triggered by Russia's war against Ukraine has revived interest in the role of nuclear energy in the European power system. We examine how postponing nuclear phaseout affects optimal dispatch and environmental performance of the interconnected European power system. We use ESMOD, a unit commitment model of the European electric system at the 2030 horizon, built with Antares Simulator, to assess the impact of nuclear phase-out policies in Germany and Belgium. The model accounts for 36 European countries and focuses on cross-border effects and country-level impacts. The model shows that not decommissioning 4 GW of nuclear capacity in these two countries would have reduced European CO2 emissions by 16 million tons in 2030. Strikingly, about 45% of such reductions would have occurred in other European countries and keeping nuclear power plants in operation would have increased the total European surplus by 3 billion euros heterogeneously affecting across countries. To interpret these heterogeneous effects, we analysed the load size, power mix, trader status and interconnections to explain cross-border sensitivities. Finally, we assessed the countries' sensitivity to weather variation across 34 climate years by classifying them using the Kmeans clustering method. The results underscore the central role of European energy policy coordination in shaping future energy strategies that prioritize climate goals and efficient system integration while challenging the economic efficiency and environmental effectiveness of solely national plans. Sergio Leo Vargas Aranda Erica Ramirez Bertrand Charmaison Maxence Cordiez Emma Moulan European coordination, Cross-border effects, Energy Policy, Power system modelling, Nuclear energy 2026-03 Financial Conditions and Capital Investment Choices https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:102910&r=&r=ene We show, both theoretically and empirically, that tight financial conditions shift investment toward cheaper but less energy-efficient capital. In a small open-economy model with vintage capital, higher financing costs reduce the present value of future energy savings, tilting firms’ choices along a cost efficiency frontier. Using 150 years of macroeconomic and energy data from 17 advanced economies, we find that tighter financial conditions reduce output, capital, and total energy consumption, but raise the amount of energy per unit of capital (energy intensity), a composition effect that persists for 6 to 8 years. Tight financial conditions lower energy use in the short run by depressing activity, but increase energy use in the medium run through worse energy efficiency. Òscar Jordà Fernanda Nechio Toan Phan Felipe Schwartzman energy efficiency; capital vintages; monetary policy; interest rates; local projections; small open economy 2026-02-26 "Environmental degradation, income and economic complexity: Evidence from European countries" https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202519&r=&r=ene Recent energy tensions caused by conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have added to the pressure that global warming exerts for an energy transition towards low-carbon energy sources. This study combines two time series approaches with the aim of delving deeper into the relationship between environmental degradation and economic growth and to test the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis, using information from 20 European countries between 2007 and 2021. Overall, the obtained results suggest the existence of a N-shaped nexus between emissions and income per capita. Additionally, we evaluated stability of this nexus and the potential existence of an asymmetric adjustment. In most countries we find asymmetries in the adjustment of emissions to positive and negative changes in income, but not so much in economic complexity. However, notable differences are observed between countries, which could be indicating their differentiated phase in the EKC curve. Oscar Claveria Petar Soric Economic Growth; Economic Complexity; Environmental Degradation; Greenhouse Gas Emissions; Europe. JEL classification: C38; C55; O44; Q20; Q50. 2025-11 House Price Effects of Commercial Entry: Event Study Evidence from London https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.03260&r=&r=ene Restaurants, cafes, and other commercial amenities are among the most visible markers of neighborhood change, yet whether their arrival drives house price appreciation or merely follows rising demand remains an open empirical question. This study investigates the causal effect of commercial entry on residential property values in Greater London. Exploiting the staggered timing of 21, 189 restaurant and cafe openings across 4, 835 Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LSOAs)--identified through Energy Performance Certificate records--we implement an event study design with LSOA-specific linear trends that passes the parallel trends test (F = 1.04, p = 0.384). We find that house prices rise monotonically after commercial entry, reaching +4.1% at four years post-treatment (p Wanqi Liu Rong Zhao 2026-03 "The Geography of the Green Transition: Performance, Vulnerabilities and Opportunities" https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202602&r=&r=ene As the EU races to meet its 2030 emissions reduction target, regional disparities in transition progress threaten to leave some territories behind. We introduce the Regional Green Transition Performance Index (RGTP), a novel composite measure capturing progress across seven pillars (environmental; energy; circular economy and waste; sustainable development; just transition; innovation and policy; and transport and mobility) for 232 European NUTS2 regions over 14 years. Drawing on 31 indicators, we map spatial patterns and dynamic processes. Furthermore, we argue that the green transition acts as a structural force whose potential effects on regional development can be expressed along two axes: vulnerability and opportunity. We propose an alternative measure of Regional Green Transition Opportunity index (RGTO) which we combine with the existent Regional Green Transition Vulnerability index (RGTV) of Rodríguez-Pose & Bartalucci (2024) to construct a simple 2×2 typology of regions. We translate this evidence into a policy playbook: pair risk-mitigation with opportunity-creation and embed diffusion mechanisms so gains propagate beyond individual regions. The paper contributes an open dataset, a transparent methodology to separate performance, opportunities, and vulnerabilities which responds to the EU’s performance-based policy agenda by offering a region-level monitoring tool that complements cohesion instruments (ERDF/CF/JTF/ESF+) and flags where to reduce vulnerabilities while mobilizing opportunities in the green transition. Sebastian Ritter Vicente Royuela Green Transition; European Union; Regional Inequality; Green Transition Index. JEL classification: C43; Q56; R11; R12. 2026-01 Overcoming Barriers to Transit-Oriented Development: Considering State, Regional, and Local Roles https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0qb0k3hr&r=&r=ene Transit-oriented development (TOD) is a strategy that promotes building housing, shops, offices, and other destinations near public transit stations. TOD is compact and walkable, supports public transit use, reduces car dependency, and can help lower greenhouse gas emissions by decreasing the number of miles people drive. California has adopted many policies in recent years– at the state, regional, and local levels– to encourage TOD as part of its broader climate and housing goals. At the same time, the state faces a housing affordability crisis. In the past seven years, state lawmakers have passed more than 100 bills aimed at increasing housing production, particularly in areas near public transit. Barbour, Elisa PhD Gordon-Feierabend, Lev Kaeppelin, Francois Social and Behavioral Sciences 2026-03-01 From Liquor to LPG: Spillover effects of alcohol prohibition on clean fuel adoption https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1724&r=&r=ene This paper examines whether Bihar's 2016 alcohol prohibition generated spillover effects on household adoption of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) as a primary cooking fuel. Although clean cooking lies outside the policy's intended scope, prohibition may affect fuel choice by altering household expenditure patterns and intra-household dynamics. Using repeated cross-sectional data from the Household Consumption Expenditure Surveys (HCES) of 2011-12 and 2023-24, we implement a propensity score matching difference-in-differences design, comparing Bihar with Jharkhand. We estimate that the prohibition increased primary LPG adoption by 12.8 percentage points. The effect is concentrated in rural areas and is robust to alternative estimators, sample restrictions, and falsification tests. We further discuss that this spillover operates through reduced alcohol spending that relaxes the budget constraint for recurring LPG use and improved women's intra-household agency following prohibition. The results highlight that policies aimed at curbing socially costly consumption can generate broader welfare gains in unexpected domains, including clean energy adoption. Dhamija, Gaurav Gupta, Sagnik Kumar Ojha, Manini Clean cooking, LPG adoption, Alcohol prohibition, Expenditure reallocation, India 2026 Climate Fairness and Growth: Allocating the Remaining Carbon Budget https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34978&r=&r=ene Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees requires that cumulative carbon dioxide emissions remain within a finite remaining carbon budget. How this budget is allocated across countries raises questions of fairness and development. This paper evaluates whether equity-based carbon allocations are compatible with sustained economic growth in emerging and developing economies. We compute country-level fair shares of the remaining carbon budget under the equal-cumulative-per-capita (ECPC) principle. Using data for 162 countries between 1950 and 2023, we then estimate the historical relationship between income and per-capita CO2 emissions across income groups and use these elasticities to simulate cumulative emissions until 2050. Our results show that ECPC implies strongly negative remaining carbon budgets for most advanced economies, while lower-income countries retain positive but constrained allocations. Under historically observed income–emissions elasticities, many developing countries would exceed their fair shares when converging toward advanced-economy income levels. At the aggregate level, unused allocations offset only 17% of the combined carbon budget shortfall implied by countries exceeding their allocation and the negative fair shares arising from historical responsibilities. In a scenario in which we assume that the technology of advanced economies is transferred to all countries, the carbon budget coverage increases to 38%. Galina Hale Michael Halling Nora Alice. Paulus Han H.G. Pham 2026-03 Analysis of the macroeconomic and financial stability impact of the transition to net zero emissions in Poland using DSGE modelling https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127741&r=&r=ene A ten-equation Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model is designed to capture household optimization, firm production decisions, environmental dynamics, and banking sector vulnerabilities during Net Zero Emission transition periods. It is calibrated to Polish macroeconomic data from 2000 to 2019 to evaluate various policy scenarios, including gradual versus rapid carbon tax implementation and different emission reduction targets. Results highlight critical trade-offs among environmental goals, economic stability, and financial system resilience. The analysis shows that Poland can reach its net-zero emissions target while maintaining macroeconomic stability through coordinated policy measures, with productivity gains generating positive spillovers across the economy. This study addresses significant gaps in environmental macroeconomic modelling for Central and Eastern European contexts, providing new insights for Poland's EU-mandated decarbonization policy while preserving economic and financial stability. Anienwe, Prince Bhattarai, Keshab DSGE Modelling; Net-Zero Transition; Carbon Taxation; Environmental Policy; Macroeconomic Stability; Financial Stability 2026-01-13 The Green Transition and Households’ Macroeconomic Expectations: A Survey Experiment https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svk:wpaper:1138&r=&r=ene We provide causal evidence that the economic framing of a structural policy changes households’ macroeconomic expectations. In a randomized survey experiment in the Bundesbank Online Panel of Households, all participants first read an identical neutral primer about climate policy measures and are then randomly assigned to receive no further text or an additional narrative interpreting the policy primarily as a negative demand or supply shock. Both narratives reduce expected growth. However, only the supply-shock framing raises inflation expectations, while the demand-shock framing does not reduce them—contrary to a simple demand-channel benchmark. These findings suggest that communication that makes different macro channels salient can materially shape expectations, with implications for economic policy communication during structural transitions. Tjantana Barro Michal Marencak Giang Nghiem 2026-03 The power of carbon pricing – A comment on Döbbeling-Hildebrandt et al. (2024) and its press release https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:283&r=&r=ene Döbbeling-Hildebrandt et al. (2024, DH2024) conduct a meta-analysis of the effectiveness of carbon pricing. DH2024's abstract concludes that 17 of 21 schemes evaluated in the literature produced substantial emissions reductions. A subsequent press release was headed: "Carbon pricing works". This comment revisits the meta-analysis and examines whether its empirical evidence supports the claims made in DH2024's abstract and, notably, the press release. We use DH2024's own approach of accounting for statistical power and potentially biased causal inference in the underlying studies. We show that when these criteria are applied simultaneously and conservatively - which we argue they should be - only nine effective schemes remain, eight in China and one regional US scheme. We emphasize that statistical power is a major issue in most carbon pricing evaluations, because most carbon prices are very low, leading to weak signal-to-noise ratios. We conclude that DH2024's policy implications and its press release therefore cannot be squared with its evidence base. Piseddu, Elisa Brodeur, Abel Rose, Julian Sievert, Maximiliane Ankel-Peters, Jörg 2026 Approximate Dynamic Programming for Degradation-aware Market Participation of Battery Energy Storage Systems: Bridging Market and Degradation Timescales https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.21089&r=&r=ene We present an approximate dynamic programming framework for designing degradation-aware market participation policies for battery energy storage systems. The approach employs a tailored value function approximation that reduces the state space to state of charge and battery health, while performing dynamic programming along a pseudo-time axis encoded by state of health. This formulation enables an offline/online computation split that separates long-term degradation dynamics (months to years) from short-term market dynamics (seconds to minutes) -- a timescale mismatch that renders conventional predictive control and dynamic programming approaches computationally intractable. The main computational effort occurs offline, where the value function is approximated via coarse-grained backward induction along the health dimension. Online decisions then reduce to a real-time tractable one-step predictive control problem guided by the precomputed value function. This decoupling allows the integration of high-fidelity physics-informed degradation models without sacrificing real-time feasibility. Backtests on historical market data show that the resulting policy outperforms several benchmark strategies with optimized hyperparameters. Flemming Holtorf Sungho Shin 2026-03 From Taxes to Transition: The Impact of the Swiss Co2 Levy on Residential Heating Energy Demand https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tch:wpaper:cep067&r=&r=ene This paper assesses the impact of the Swiss CO2 levy on residential heating energy demand and the associated CO2 emissions. Using the synthetic control method, the results show that the levy led to an average annual reduction in CO2 emissions of 6.5% during the post•treatment period (2008•2021), corresponding to a decrease of 0.1 metric tons of CO2 per capita per year. Furthermore, the empirically estimated price elasticities for heating oil indicate that the short•run elasticity for the retail price is •0.055, while the elasticity for the CO2 levy is •1.264, demonstrating that consumers respond more strongly to policy•induced price changes than to market•driven price changes. In the long run, these elasticities increase to •0.064 (retail price) and •1.471 (levy), highlighting that over time, households adjust their demand more significantly in response to sustained price changes. A similar pattern is observed for natural gas, with short•run elasticities of •0.261 (retail) and •0.623 (levy), increasing to •0.521 and •1.241, respectively, in the long run. These findings provide robust evidence that the Swiss CO2 levy is an effective instrument for reducing emissions in the residential heating sector. The results underline the importance of policy•induced price instruments and highlight the necessity of high levy rates to ensure a measurable impact on consumption behavior. Teresa Schäfer Carbon tax, Tax elasticity, Synthetic control method 2026-03 Energy Markets at War: The Effect of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine on Refinery Margins https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12553&r=&r=ene This paper evaluates the effect of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 on refinery margins, i.e. the difference between wholesale prices for road fuels (gasoline and diesel) and oil prices in Europe and Germany in particular. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wholesale road fuel prices net of taxes rose by more than 50 cents per liter, whereas crude oil prices increased by only about 30 cents per liter. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we compare refinery margins in Germany with those on the Amsterdam–Rotterdam–Antwerp (ARA) spot market, which serves as a European benchmark price. The results indicate that refinery margins in Germany increased by approximately 5–6 cents per liter relative to the ARA region after the invasion. We attribute this differential primarily to Germany’s strong dependence on Russian Ural crude oil imports and to the presence of regional market power among German refineries. We further document substantial heterogeneity in treatment effects across both time and regions. In addition, the invasion was associated with a significant decline in fuel demand, with gasoline consumption falling by about 13% and diesel consumption by approximately 9%. Leonard Gregor Justus Haucap event study, Ukraine crisis, fuel prices, wholesale markets 2026 To Cap or Not to Cap? Energy Crises in a Currency Union https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:102901&r=&r=ene During the energy crisis in 2022 some Euro Area countries introduced price caps on energy, while others did not, leading to about 30 percentage points higher energy inflation in uncapped countries. This paper investigates the trade-offs policymakers face with energy price caps in a two-country currency union model with shared energy supply. The cooperative, optimal outcome is for neither country to impose a price cap, since the cap is a costly market distortion. However, capping allows a country to avoid a crisis at the cost of negative spillovers on the uncapped country, characterized by high inflation and lower output. The quantitative model with non-homothetic preferences and substitutability of energy sources shows that the cost of the price cap exceeds the cost of such spillovers, explaining why some countries capped prices while others did not. Moreover, I show that the spillovers from price caps contributed to about 10 (0.5) percentage points of energy (headline) inflation in the uncapped Euro Area countries in 2022. Targeted transfers, an alternative policy to the price cap, is a cheaper and more effective way to boost consumption of the poor without creating divergence within the union. Momo Komatsu energy crisis; energy price cap; inflation; international spillovers 2025-12-12 Carbon taxes and Macroeconomic dynamics in Norway https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127742&r=&r=ene This study investigates the long-term equilibrium relationships between Norway's carbon tax policy and key macroeconomic indicators using Johansen cointegration analysis and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The findings show that Norway's carbon tax raises inflation and lowers investment over time, but does not impact GDP. These findings, based on cointegration and VECM analysis of carbon tax, GDP, investment, and inflation from 1995 to 2023, enhance understanding of how carbon taxes affect Norway's macroeconomy. Anienwe, Prince Bhattarai, Keshab Carbon Tax, Cointegration, Vector Error Correction Model, GDP, Inflation, Investment. 2026-01-12 Machine Learning techniques for synthetic data generation in Energy and Financial Markets https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2026:11&r=&r=ene The availability of sufficiently large, reliable, and high-quality datasets represents a fundamental prerequisite for quantitative analysis and data-driven decision-making in economics and finance. In practice, however, financial data are often limited, noisy, or subject to restricted access, creating significant empirical constraints for both researchers and practitioners. Recent advances in Generative Machine Learning (GenML) provide promising tools to overcome these limitations by enabling the generation of synthetic data capable of preserving the main statistical features of original data. Despite the rapid diffusion of these techniques, most existing studies focus on replicating stylized facts of financial time series or producing forward-looking simulations, while less attention has been devoted to a systematic assessment of the generative fidelity and generalization capacity of alternative models across different distributional environments. Motivated by this gap, this study provides a comparative evaluation of several Deep Generative Machine Learning (Deep-GenML) families by assessing their ability to reproduce both theoretical statistical distributions and empirical financial and commodity market data. The analysis spans multiple Deep-GenML architectures, distributional settings and market regimes, while also examining model performance under alternative training configurations that reflect varying degrees of data availability. The empirical evidence indicates that deep generative models are capable of accurately reproducing complex distributional features—including heavy tails, asymmetry, and multimodality—across a wide range of scenarios. Overall, the results highlight the potential of deep generative approaches as flexible tools for synthetic data generation and distributional modeling in financial and energy market applications. Oleksandr Castello Marco Corazza Deep Generative Machine Learning, Synthetic data generation, GAN, VAE, EBM, Financial and Energy market data 2026 Growth dynamics and environmental pressure in Greece: Investigating the validity of EKC hypothesis https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128430&r=&r=ene This study investigates the dynamic, long-run relationships between environmental degradation, measured by carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and a comprehensive set of macroeconomic determinants, including economic growth (GDP), energy consumption, trade openness and urbanization in Greece. Utilizing annual time-series data spanning the period 1970–2014, determines the direction of causality among variables. The empirical results provide strong evidence for the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables. Specifically, the findings do not validate the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis for the Greek economy, identifying a statistically significant N-shaped relationship where environmental degradation initially rises with economic expansion before reaching a structural turning point (local maximun), subsequently declining reaching a second turning point (local minimum), followed by an additional rise. The causal analysis reveals a unidirectional linkage flowing from economic growth and energy consumption to CO2 in the long run, suggesting that Greece’s historical growth model has been energy-intensive. From a policy perspective, the study concludes that for Greece to sustain its downward environmental trajectory, it must shift toward a high-efficiency energy mix and decouple its GDP growth from carbon-intensive industrial activities, aligning with broader European Union climate mandates and the global transition toward a low-carbon economy. Halkos, George Zisiadou, Argyro Environmental Kuznets Curve; Economic growth; environmental degradation; Greece; sustainability; CO₂ emissions. 2026-03-23 "Power to the People: The Local Economic Effects of Renewable Energy Communities in the UK" https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202604&r=&r=ene Local responses to renewable energy projects range from opposition that delays or blocks deployment to active support and participation. A common narrative underlying these behaviors emphasizes economic considerations: projects that impose local externalities without delivering local benefits tend to face resistance, whereas renewable energy communities (RECs) that are formed by citizens are argued to generate more local economic value than corporate plants. This paper examines these two related claims by comparing the local economic effects of community-owned and corporate-owned renewable energy plants. Using heterogeneity-robust difference-indifferences estimators and panel data for UK local authority districts, we estimate the income and employment impacts of community and corporate solar and wind projects. We find evidence of local economic benefits for some ownership–technology combinations, with substantial heterogeneity across ownership structures and technologies. Overall, the results point to a nuanced relationship between renewable energy deployment, ownership models, and local economic outcomes. Gökhan Dilek Joël Bühler The United Kingdom; Renewable Energy Communities; Energy Transition; Renewable Energy; Green Growth. JEL classification: C33; E24; J21; L94; O13; Q52; R23. 2026-01 Crude Oil, 45Z Uncertainty, and Rising U.S. Soybean Oil Prices https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:arpcbr:396376&r=&r=ene This ARPC Brief examines the recent divergence in soybean oil Free on Board (FOB) prices across major export origins, focusing on the growing premium of U.S. Gulf prices relative to those of Brazil and Argentina from early 2025 through March 2026. From January through May 2025, prices across all three origins moved closely together. A first period of divergence emerged between June and September 2025, when U.S. soybean oil prices rose sharply following the EPA’s proposed Renewable Fuel Standard volumes and new incentives favoring domestically sourced biofuel feedstocks. Prices later reconverged toward the end of 2025 as uncertainty surrounding final Renewable Volume Obligations and implementation of the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit weighed on the market. A second, more pronounced divergence emerged in late February and early March 2026, when rising crude oil prices and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East strengthened expectations of biofuel demand and lifted U.S. soybean oil prices more sharply than South American values. The findings suggest that future U.S. soybean oil price movements will depend on policy clarity surrounding biofuel incentives, developments in crude oil markets, domestic production and stocks, and the pace of South American harvest, crushing, and export demand. Wang, Ming Olson, Frayne Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy 2026-03-26 ENERGY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS AND GREEN SUPPLY CHAINS:A BIBLIOMETRIC PERSPECTIVE ON THE CONTRIBUTION OF ISO 50001 https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05488073&r=&r=ene Objective: The objective of this study is to examine the role of ISO 50001 as a structured energy management system within the field of green supply chain management (GSCM). More specifically, it aims to map the intellectual structure, thematic evolution, and research trends related to ISO 50001 and its contribution to sustainable supply chain practices. Theoretical Framework: This research is grounded in the theoretical foundations of green supply chain management, energy management systems, and sustainability-oriented organizational strategies. Core concepts related to energy efficiency, sustainable development, renewable energy integration, and organizational performance provide the conceptual basis for analyzing the literature on ISO 50001 and GSCM. Method: The study employs a bibliometric research design, utilizing a dataset of 422 peer-reviewed journal articles published between 2013 and 2024, indexed in the Scopus and Web of Science databases. Bibliometric performance indicators and science mapping techniques were applied to identify influential journals, authors, institutions, and countries, as well as to explore keyword co-occurrence patterns and thematic clusters shaping this research domain. Results and Discussion: The findings reveal a sustained growth in academic interest at the intersection of ISO 50001 and GSCM, reflecting the increasing strategic relevance of energy management within supply chain sustainability research. Dominant research themes primarily relate to energy efficiency, sustainable development, renewable energy adoption, and organizational performance. However, the analysis also highlights underexplored areas, particularly those associated with digital technologies, data-driven energy management, and the strategic integration of ISO 50001 into supply chain decision-making processes. Research Implications: The results provide both theoretical and managerial implications by clarifying how ISO 50001-based energy management systems support sustainability-oriented supply chain strategies and by offering insights for organizations seeking to improve environmental and competitive performance. Originality/Value: This study offers one of the first comprehensive bibliometric syntheses focusing specifically on the contribution of ISO 50001 to green supply chain management, positioning the standard as a strategic lever for embedding energy management into sustainable supply chain governance. Abouzaid Badr Koross Mohsine Renewable Energy., Environmental Performance, Sustainability, Energy Efficiency, ISO 50001, Green Supply Chain 2026-01-29 Bayesian Indicator-Saturated Regression for Climate Policy Evaluation https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.04997&r=&r=ene Structural break identification methods are an important tool for evaluating the effectiveness of climate change mitigation policies. In this paper, we introduce a unified probabilistic framework for detecting structural breaks with unknown timing and arbitrary sequence in longitudinal data. The proposed Bayesian setup uses indicator-saturated regression and a spike-and-slab prior with an inverse-moment density as the slab component to ensure model selection consistency. Simulation results show that the method outperforms comparable frequentist approaches, particularly in environments with a high probability of structural breaks. We apply the framework to identify and evaluate the effects of climate policies in the European road transport sector. Lucas D. Konrad Lukas Vashold Jesus Crespo Cuaresma 2026-03 ASCOR framework: methodology note version 1.1 https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137700&r=&r=ene Assessing Sovereign Climate-related Opportunities and Risks (ASCOR) is an investor-led project to develop a free, publicly available, independent tool that assesses countries on climate change. The ASCOR framework is composed of indicators for the transparent assessment of the progress made by countries in managing the low-carbon transition and the impacts of climate change. ASCOR aims to inform, support and facilitate investors’ decision-making on sovereign bonds and enable a more explicit consideration of climate change. The project hopes to facilitate engagement and dialogue between issuers and investors and drive financing for climate change mitigation and adaptation. ASCOR will also enable countries to showcase their improvements on the transition to a low-carbon and resilient future by providing independent and open-source assessments of their targets and policies. Scheer, Antonina Honneth, Johannes Hizliok, Setenay Dietz, Simon Nuzzo, Carmen 2024-11-05 The Geoeconomics of Contract Enforcement https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1569&r=&r=ene Historically, contract enforcement between multinationals and host governments relied on military power. In the late 1960s, Western Great Powers (WGP) – U.S., U.K., France – sharply reduced military interventions, increasing expropriation risk in weak-institution countries. We study the effect of this unanticipated global shift using microdata from the petroleum industry. Firms headquartered in WGP responded by delaying ("backloading") production by 2-4 years, converging to the delays already exhibited by other multinationals. Backloading resulted in annual revenue losses of one quarter billion US$ per country, largely offset by higher government rent-shares. These patterns are consistent with the formation of self-enforcing agreements. Gerhard Toews Elena Paltseva Marta Troya-Martínez dynamic incentives, institutions, oil, political economy 2026-03 Hydrogen in financial markets: A hybrid asset at the crossroads of technology and clean energy https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2026-7&r=&r=ene Hydrogen is increasingly presented as a key solution for decarbonization in the context of the energy transition. This paper investigates how financial markets perceive hydrogen-related companies and whether these assets display distinct financial behaviors compared to other clean energy sectors—namely solar, wind, and renewable energy producers. Using daily data and a multi-faceted econometric approach, accounting for non-linearities, long-run dynamics, and time-varying correlations, we analyze both returns and dynamic correlations of hydrogen stocks relative to other energy segments. Our results show that hydrogen indices behave more like speculative technological assets than mature renewable energy sources. Their returns are more sensitive to financial stress indicators (e.g., the VIX) and to the performance of technology stocks. Dynamic correlations with other energy sectors are shaped by macroeconomic conditions: oil prices act as a synchronizing factor, while gold increases returns but reduces correlations. In contrast, geopolitical and financial uncertainty tends to increase comovements, reflecting flight-to-safety behavior. These findings highlight hydrogen’s hybrid identity in financial markets—volatile, innovation-driven, and not yet integrated into the traditional renewable asset class, raising implications for both investors and policymakers regarding the financial interconnectedness and strategic support of the hydrogen sector within the broader clean energy transition. Emilie Couture Hydrogen, Renewable energy, Asset pricing, Stock returns, Cross-market correlations 2026 TRANSITION ÉNERGÉTIQUE ET INDUSTRIALISATION DURABLE : DÉFIS ET OPPORTUNITÉS https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05490566&r=&r=ene TRANSITION ÉNERGÉTIQUE ET INDUSTRIALISATION DURABLE : DÉFIS ET OPPORTUNITÉS Lancine Doumbouya Efficacité énergétique., Sécurité énergétique, Développement économique, Énergies renouvelables, Industrialisation durable, Transition énergétique 2025-11-25 Green Foreign Direct Investment is flowing far beyond renewables: a taxonomy-guided LLM analysis https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137671&r=&r=ene Foreign direct investment (FDI) finances and diffuses the capital, skills and know-how needed for the low-carbon transition, yet ‘green FDI’ remains systematically under-measured. Sector proxies – typically renewable energy and waste remediation – miss green activities embedded within other industries, yielding a partial and geographically-biased picture. Here we combine Large Language Models with the EU Taxonomy for Sustainable Activities to classify investment projects against sector-specific green criteria. Applying this taxonomy-guided framework to 109, 084 inward greenfield FDI projects into the European Union and the United Kingdom (2013– 2024), we identify 15.7% of FDI value as green – around twice the share captured by traditional measures. We show that sector metrics miss large volumes in manufacturing and services, and that beyond-energy green FDI is more strongly linked to extra-European investors, implying distinct geopolitical dependencies. Blinded human coding and robustness tests confirm high accuracy and reproducibility. Together, these results enable scalable monitoring of investment alignment with climate objectives. Alvarez Vilanova, Juan Crescenzi, Riccardo Mager, Lee green FDI; EU taxonomy; large language models; greenfield investment; decarbonisation; green transition 2026-03 Effectiveness of carbon tax on emission reduction in Sweden and Norway. A cross-country VAR analysis https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127740&r=&r=ene This paper examines the comparative effectiveness of carbon taxation policies in Sweden and Norway using the Vector Autoregression (VAR) methodology, spanning the period from 1995 to 2023. Employing impulse responses in VAR analysis, this study confirms the effectiveness of the carbon tax in Sweden, with significant lagged effects, but finds weaker policy transmission mechanisms in Norway, identifying systematic relationships between policy changes and environmental outcomes. This study contributes to the literature on climate policy design by comparing empirical evidence on optimal carbon pricing mechanisms across these two economies. In addition, the study shows how carbon tax design and implementation contexts critically determine policy effectiveness in temporal response patterns of emissions to carbon tax policies. Anienwe, Prince Bhattarai, Keshab Carbon tax; Emission reduction; VAR analysis; Climate policy; Cross-country comparison. 2026-01-13 Where Geopolitical Risk Binds: Stockpiling and AI as Complementary Strategies for Mitigating Supply Chain Risk in Critical Minerals https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tas:wpaper:62814634&r=&r=ene We develop novel, stage-specific, geopolitical risk indicators to examine how geopolitical risk is distributed across the supply-chain for lithium and copper, two minerals which are vital for low-carbon technologies. We find that refining is the geopolitical bottleneck for both minerals, reflecting that refining capacity is highly concentrated in China. We examine refining diversification, strategic stockpiling, and AI-driven productivity gains as complementary policy instruments for mitigating exposure to geopolitical risk at the refining stage. We show that reducing China’s refining share substantially lowers refining-stage geopolitical risk, with larger gains for lithium than for copper. We find that stockpiling plays a critical role in buffering near-term geopolitical shocks, but significantly increases the projected shortfall in copper and lithium which is needed to realize the clean energy transition under alternative Net Zero pathways. We demonstrate that AI-driven productivity gains will be needed to narrow the projected supply gaps for both minerals. Our results suggest that ensuring effective security of critical minerals requires a coordinated policy mix, combining refining diversification, strategic stockpiling, and productivity-enhancing technological change Vespignani, Joaquin Smyth, Russell Saadaoui, Jamel Wang, Yitian Critical Minerals; Copper; Lithium; Geopolitical Risk; Refining bottlenecks; 2026 Policy Lessons from International Commodity Agreements : Failure of Non-Oil Pacts and the Endurance of OPEC https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11340&r=&r=ene Commodity price volatility—along with energy and food security concerns—has renewed interest in supply- and demand-management schemes. This paper revisits experiences of international commodity agreements. Historically, agreements covering non-oil commodities involved both producers and consumers and employed various policy tools such as inventory and trade flow management. While some initially stabilized prices, all eventually failed or disbanded, often amplifying price volatility. In contrast, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, a producer-only arrangement, has endured longer but faces challenges from the energy transition, alternative sources of oil, and consumer responses including energy diversification, efficiency gains, policy coordination, and strategic reserves under the auspices of the International Energy Agency. These experiences offer cautionary lessons for current proposals advocating industrial commodity cartels or global food inventory management. Nonetheless, international coordination, particularly in energy conservation, food aid, and information sharing, remains relevant. During periods of severe market disruption, collaboration on inventory management and trade flow regulations may still offer benefits. Baffes, John Nagle, Peter Streifel, Shane S. 2026-03-20 Cleaner energy microgrids under market power and limited regulation in developing countries https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.16893&r=&r=ene In many low-income countries, neighborhood diesel generators are widely used to compensate for unreliable or unavailable national electricity grids. These diesel-based microgrids are typically characterized by market power, significant pollution, and weak regulatory oversight. In parallel, households increasingly deploy off-grid solar photovoltaic (PV) systems to gain control over electricity supply. However, these systems suffer from curtailed excess generation during peak solar hours and unreliable access at other times. While prior studies have optimized microgrids in developing contexts from a techno-economic perspective, they largely neglect the market power exerted by monopolistic private generators. This paper addresses this gap by developing a bi-level game-theoretic model that enables household-generated electricity to be fed into the microgrid while explicitly accounting for the market power of a neighborhood diesel generator company (DGC). The regulator sets price and feed-in-tariff caps to maximize household economic surplus (HES), while the DGC acts as a profit-maximizing agent controlling access and supply. The model is applied to a Lebanese case study using high-resolution empirical data collected via logging devices. Results show that: (i) price and feed-in-tariff caps substantially increase HES and consistently induce significant household PV feed-in to the microgrid; (ii) higher DGC budgets or greater PV-owner penetration lead to pronounced gains in HES; and (iii) the renewable energy share reaches 60% under base conditions and approaches 100% at sufficiently high budgets or PV-owner penetration levels, compared to 0% under the status quo. Elsa Bou Gebrael Majd Olleik Sebastian Zwickl-Bernhard 2026-03 "Integrating Road Safety and Environmental Impact via Telematics: Modeling Traffic Accident Risk Using Vehicle Emissions" https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202522&r=&r=ene Private vehicles harm public health by contributing to air pollution and traffic accidents, the leading cause of death among young adults. Despite these risks, drivers often ignore speed limits, while society increasingly prioritizes environmental protection. This tension between personal habits and collective responsibility highlights the urgent need for strategies to promote safer driving practices. Therefore, this paper introduces a novel approach to evaluating road crash risk using air pollutants as exposure measures, so drivers are simultaneously encouraged to reduce their environmental footprint and mitigate their road crash risk. We use a rich dataset of over 1, 500 at-fault crash-related claims recorded over two years provided by an insurance company, merged with detailed telematics driving data for individual vehicles. We show that available emission factor models enable the integration of emission-based exposure measures to model road crash risk. Then, we provide empirical evidence that incorporating behavioral telematics data makes pollutant-driven models as efficient as traditional distance-driven ones. Our proposition has the potential to enhance road safety and reduce air pollution by directly linking environmentally conscious driving practices with reducing road crash risks. Juan Sebastian Yanez Montserrat Guillen Paulina Roszkowsk Jens Perch Nielsen Air Pollution; Crash Risk; Public Health; Road Accident; Telematics; Transportation. JEL classification: G22; G52. 2025-12 How Indonesia’s ban on raw nickel exports provides lessons for fiscal and economic policy in the low-carbon transition https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137796&r=&r=ene Indonesia is abundant in the transition-critical mineral nickel. In 2020 the government banned exports of raw nickel to capitalise on its value at home and in global supply chains as it transitions to a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy. But the country also faces environmental and social trade-offs in the exploitation of this mineral. Lessons can be drawn from the Indonesian example in other countries facing similar resource and sustainable growth dilemmas. Utamawati, Herlina Yusuf, Alia 2026-03 Labor market risk shapes individuals’ environmental attitudes and policy preference https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137327&r=&r=ene In an era of increasing economic precarity and labour market polarization, meaningful efforts to mitigate climate challenges face a fundamental political challenge. We examine how indviduals’ long-term labour market risk shapes their environmental attitudes and support for green policies. We argue that longterm labour market risk is expected to reduce environmental concern amongst those affected due to a deprioritization of problems with high levels of uncertainty and that require deep reforms to be addressed. Therefore, we expect labour market risk to subsequently reduce support of environmental policy that imposes immediate direct costs, such as carbon taxation. Using European Social Survey data from 2002 to 2018 and several waves of the International Social Survey Programme across European countries, our analysis reveals that individuals’ facing long-term labour market risks are less likely to hold environmental concerns and less supportive of carbon taxes that impose immediate visible costs. Our findings have important implications for understanding how structural transformations in the economy shape individuals’ preferences for tackling long-term societal problems like climate change. González-Rostani, Valentina Beiser-McGrath, Liam Aklin, Michaël automation; environmental attitudes; environmental policy; public opinion 2026-03-17 Trump Tariffs and Persistence in Crude Oil Prices: A Long-Memory Approach https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12562&r=&r=ene This paper examines the impact on crude oil prices of the trade tariffs announced by the Trump administration on 2 April 2025 (“Liberation Day”). More specifically, it uses fractional integration methods to analyse daily data on WTI, Brent and Murban oil prices spanning the period from 3 June 2024 to 14 January 2026 for the former two and from 8 October 2024 to 15 January 2026 for the latter. Their long-memory and persistence properties are investigated initially over the full sample, and then the effects of the Trump tariff announcement are assessed by means of subsample analysis for the pre- and post-announcement period as well as recursive estimation of the fractional differencing parameter d measuring persistence. The results indicate that the unit root null cannot be rejected in any case, whether one considers the full sample or the subsamples, which implies that shocks have permanent effects. Further, the recursive estimation shows a significant impact of tariffs on the degree of persistence of oil prices only at the time of the announcement, when the wide confidence bands suggest a high degree of uncertainty - in the subsequent period no significant changes can be detected in the stochastic behaviour of the series following the downward shift in their level caused by the announcement. Guglielmo Maria Caporale Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana Oluwadare O. Ojo Trump tariffs, crude oil prices, fractional integration, long memory, persistence 2026