Development http://lists.repec.org/mailman/listinfo/nep-dev Development 2026-04-06 The Long Shadow: Childhood Poverty and the Returns to Education https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1731&r=&r=dev This study documents substantial heterogeneity in returns to education by childhood poverty status among Indonesian wage workers aged 15-35. Individuals who grew up poor earn only 1.5 percent per additional year of schooling-less than onefourth of the 6.8 percent earned by those who were never poor. We estimate these returns using a control-function approach that exploits conditional heteroskedasticity for identification in the absence of exclusion restrictions. The control-function coefficient is three times larger among the poor, indicating markedly stronger positive selection into schooling in this group: only individuals with exceptionally favorable unobserved characteristics attain higher levels of education. We also present descriptive evidence of lower skill accumulation per year of schooling and more limited access to high-paying jobs among disadvantaged individuals, patterns consistent with lower marginal returns. These findings highlight the limited equalizing role of education, measured here by years of schooling. Febriady, Ade Postepska, Agnieszka Angelini, Viola Returns to Education, Childhood Poverty, Control-Function Approach 2026 Powerful Forests: The Welfare Implications of Deforestation for the Power Sector https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5cukh_v1&r=&r=dev The energy transition depends not only on building renewable capacity but also on protecting the natural resources on which renewables rely. This paper shows that conservation and renewable policies are complements. We quantify how Amazon deforestation affects Brazil's electricity market by reducing rainfall and hydropower generation. We model the transmission chain from deforestation to atmospheric moisture, to downwind rainfall, to river discharge and hydro output, and embed the resulting supply shift within a market-equilibrium framework. Counterfactual simulations indicate that reversing all deforestation since 1985 would increase annual hydroelectric output by 13 TWh, lower electricity prices, and generate welfare gains of USD 1.1 billion per year. These gains are unevenly distributed: consumers benefit from lower prices and Amazon-basin hydropower producers benefit from higher output, while thermal generators and hydropower producers elsewhere lose. Finally, we identify small, high-leverage regions that account for a disproportionate share of hydropower value, informing targeted conservation and restoration. Araujo, Rafael Costa, Francisco J M Hector, Vinícius Sant'Anna, Marcelo 2026-03-24 Cash Transfers and Productive Inclusion: Evidence from Bolsa Familia https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35006&r=&r=dev We study how cash transfers affect work and health. Exploiting an increase in the generosity of the world's largest cash-transfer program for the extremely poor, we show that the reform raised employment by 5 percent while sharply improving health: hospitalization fell 8 percent and mortality 14 percent, saving roughly 1, 000 lives. These findings challenge the view that transfers reduce work. Instead, transfers can relax binding subsistence and health constraints, raise productivity, and expand labor supply. We formalize this mechanism in a model of productive inclusion and use it to evaluate welfare, yielding lessons for antipoverty policy design in low-income settings. Michael C. Best Felipe Lobel Valdemar Pinho Neto 2026-03 Roads to the Market or the Town Hall? New Evidence from India’s PMGSY https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18468&r=&r=dev We examine the impact of rural road connectivity on economic and novel governance outcomes in the context of the world’s largest rural road program, India’s PMGSY. Using a novel village-level survey designed around PMGSY’s rollout, we exploit quasi-random variation in road placement to estimate causal effects of connectivity on agricultural and labor markets as well as governance and political connectivity. We find evidence that roads support market access, as local producer prices increase by 1.3 SD and agricultural outputs diversify. Despite the improved agricultural output prices and options, labor shifts away from agriculture to casual work, suggesting improved non-agricultural market access. Interestingly, increases in casual labor are almost exclusively local to the connected village, and we find a decrease of short- and medium-term migration by 0.8 SD. Additionally, road connectivity increases local state presence, with a 1.1 SD increase in an index of official government visits and a 0.9 SD increase in an index of political connectivity, and leads to higher wages on government construction projects and lower prices in government shops. Our findings show that road leads to more vibrant and diverse rural economies. Kumar Gautam, Santosh Shandal, Monica Zucker, Ariel infrastructure, governance, PMGSY, labor markets, migration, India 2026-03 A Tale of Two Choices: Son Preference and Reproductive Outcomes in Uzbekistan https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1730&r=&r=dev In this study, we use data from the recent round of the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) to estimate the effect of son preference on reproductive behaviour in Uzbekistan. We find strong evidence of differential stopping and spacing behaviour among Uzbek women. Women are significantly less likely to have a subsequent birth if they have at least one son at a given birth order. The effect is particularly strong among rural women at higher birth orders. The likelihood of discontinuation of childbearing increases as the number of sons increases. However, the sex of the firstborn child, whether male or female, plays no role in women's decisions about having additional children. We find that the probability of a subsequent short or risky birth interval is lower among women with at least one son. In addition, women with at least one son are more likely to use contraceptives. These patterns persist regardless of women's age. The findings have important implications for policymakers and practitioners in helping to design targeted interventions and programs in the country to improve reproductive health outcomes, promote gender equality, increase access to family planning services, and support women's reproductive autonomy. Dushamova, Khilola Javed, Rashid Suyunov, Gayrat Zakirova, Munira Son Preference, Birth Spacing, Fertility, Uzbekistan 2026 Structure and organization of coffee value chains in Ethiopia https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:jhtiwp:339578&r=&r=dev Motivation The high level of regulation has a strong influence on the development of Ethiopia's export- and domestic- oriented coffee value chains, as well as on their ability to participate in Global Value Chains and in domestic value chain development. The fact that Ethiopia's coffee value chains are further differentiated along various dimensions is widely overlooked in the scientific literature. Approach and methods Drawing on expert interviews and other data sources, we identify, describe, and discuss the structure and organisation of the Ethiopian coffee value chains, taking into account institutional conditions and policy frameworks. We also identify relevant institutions and policies involved in these value chains across primary, secondary, and tertiary markets, along with their respective interventions. Findings Our analysis identified four major coffee value chains: formal, informal, domestic, and international chains. Stakeholders' competing goals and conflicts have created a complex structure, as exemplified by the strict market regulations in place. Reforms, such as Ethiopia's monetary policy, have caused foreign exchange and FDI deficits, impacting the coffee sector, which remains the primary source of foreign currency but limits domestic coffee development. This also spurred informal trade for local and cross-border markets. An overvalued currency and cheap imports attract informal traders, as exporters seek foreign currency through coffee, thereby hindering the sector's development. Poor quality control further restricts the competitiveness of domestic chains, favouring small, inefficient, and informal traders. Institutions failed to regulate reforms, such as the 2018 coffee reform, which reduced transparency and undermined trust. Furthermore, the failure of institutions to monitor and regulate policy reform meant that farmers, primary cooperatives, and traders working on quality considered it a less rewarding activity. The Ethiopian coffee market does not function effectively in terms of differentiating and remunerating different product and process qualities. Policy implications The results highlight the need to implement quality control measures at farm level, particularly within the farmer-supplier-exporter chain, in order to utilize the country's potential to produce high-quality coffee for export and develop the domestic value chain. This also calls for designing a system that rewards quality production at all stages of the value chain. Acknowledging the distinct coffee value chains in the country and creating a strategy that considers their variations is crucial. Abayneh Ayele, Hiwot Margarian, Anne Weible, Daniela Coffee, value chain analysis, coffee market, institutional environment, Ethiopia 2026 What Will It Mean for Development Agencies to Be Effective in the Years Ahead? https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:388&r=&r=dev Development agencies are being asked to deliver against a widening set of objectives with tighter budgets and more contested mandates. This paper uses an organizational, forward-looking lens to examine effectiveness, treating it as a question not only of what agencies aim to do but of what they are able to do under constraint and uncertainty. Drawing on semi-structured interviews with officials across four bilateral development agencies from OECD-DAC bilateral agencies, we show how external realities lead to contested mandates and tighter budgets, which increasingly set the terms of action, and how, downstream of these pressures, internal bottlenecks – capacity and skills gaps, siloed coordination, slow processes, and weak learning and results systems – frequently determine whether agencies can respond coherently at all. We synthesize the implications through four strategic questions that shape reform choices, asking how to clarify agency role and purpose, improve and scale impact under constrained budgets, strengthen responsiveness to partner needs as contexts shift (including faster, more locally informed decision pathways), and evidence and communicate value to sustain legitimacy with both domestic and partner audiences. We offer several recommendations for agencies based on our findings, and conclude that the next phase of the effectiveness agenda may hinge less on restating principles than on building organizational coherence and adaptive capacity that can translate contested mandates into credible action. Rachael Calleja Beata Cichocka Sara Casadevall Bellés 2026-03-31 Reforming Fossil Fuel Subsidies with Citizens' Approval: The Case of Colombia https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12583&r=&r=dev Subsidizing fossil fuel consumption is at odds with climate change mitigation and a heavy burden on public budgets. Yet, efforts to reform such subsidies often face strong public opposition. We examine whether informing citizens about the effects of fossil fuel subsidy reform (FFSR) and complementary policy measures can increase public acceptance. We study this question using a novel survey experiment in Colombia, a country currently aiming at reforming existing fossil fuel subsidies. Building on Hoy et al (2026), our experiment exposes respondents to different information treatments, including from an innovative calculation of personal costs, and options for complementary policy measures. Leveraging a representative sample with more than 3, 600 respondents, we find that information provision alone has limited effects on public support, as citizens rarely update their - at times - incorrect beliefs. In contrast, policy design is crucial. Complementing FFSR with additional measures shifts public opinion from majority opposition to majority support. Informing about the environmental effects of FFSR is most effective and strongly increases support for environmentally oriented complementary policies. Opposition to FFSR without complementary measures remains primarily driven by concerns about impacts on poorer households. Charlotte Sophia Bez Jorge A. Bonilla Brigitte Castañeda Rodríguez Jorge H. García Leonard Missbach Farah Mohammadzadeh Valencia Jan Christoph Steckel political economy, public finance, subsidies, climate change, fossil fuels, energy policy, survey experiment, distributional impacts 2026 Beyond Appearance: The Socioeconomic and Historical Roots of Racial Identity in Brazil https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usf:wpaper:2026-01&r=&r=dev Racial identity is not solely a matter of physical appearance but is also shaped by social and historical context. Using data on over 500, 000 candidates for local office in Brazil’s 2020 elections, we study how self-reported race - specifically, identification as white - relates to phenotypic appearance, socioeconomic characteristics, and local social perceptions. We use machine learning to extract appearance-based probabilities of racial classification from candidate photographs and show that these probabilities explain a significant share of variation in self-reported race. Socioeconomic factors such as education, gender, and wealth also influence racial identification, though their effects diminish among individuals whose appearance more clearly aligns with the white category. Municipality fixed effects, which we interpret as capturing local social perception bias, vary systematically across regions and are strongly associated with historical slave population shares. We further show that areas with state-sponsored European settlements - often associated with more inclusive institutions - exhibit lower rates of white self-identification, contrasting with the positive association between slavery intensity and white identification. Our findings highlight the enduring role of social and historical forces in shaping racial classification and suggest that racial inequality cannot be fully understood without accounting for the social construction of race. Diogo Baerlocher Renata Caldas Francisco Cavalcanti Racial Classification, Social Identity, Phenotypic Appearance, Historical Legacy 2026-01 Religious Polarisation, Economic Vulnerability, and Electoral Realignment: Evidence from West Bengal, India https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18475&r=&r=dev This paper contributes to the debate on identity politics by examining whether the religious composition of voters predicts electoral outcomes. Using assembly constituency-level data from six elections in West Bengal, India, between 2011 and 2024, we study how the Muslim population share relates to party performance. We show that religious composition becomes a much stronger correlate of electoral outcomes in the later period (from 2016 onwards): constituencies with higher Muslim shares increasingly align with the incumbent Trinamool Congress (TMC), while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) consolidates support in constituencies with lower Muslim shares. We also document heterogeneity within predominantly Hindu constituencies. Economically vulnerable areas – proxied by higher shares of marginal agricultural labourers – remain relatively more supportive of the TMC, while better-off agricultural constituencies shift towards the BJP. Together, the results suggest that West Bengal’s recent electoral realignment reflects both strengthening religious polarisation and an interaction between identity-based mobilisation and material considerations, with implications for political competition and accountability in democracies. Dey, Subhasish Natarajan, Vidhyarth Sahoo, Soham religion, electoral-outcome, TMC, BJP, West Bengal, India 2026-03 Factor Endowments and Agricultural Productivity in Latin America on the Eve of World War I https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-26-25&r=&r=dev This paper quantifies agricultural performance in Latin America in the early 20th century, complementing previous qualitative studies with a comparative and historical perspective. The analysis covers ten countries –Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Cuba, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela– during the years preceding World War I. We identify three broad agrarian paths. Argentina and Uruguay featured extensive, high-productivity, export-oriented systems that promoted broader economic development. Chile, Cuba, and Nicaragua exhibited more intensive but labour-demanding systems, with moderate productivity and uneven technological progress. Venezuela, Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, and Peru maintained low-productivity, traditional agriculture with limited potential for economic growth. These contrasting structures highlight the diversity of Latin American agrarian capitalism and help explain the uneven capacity of national economies to initiate structural transformation. Overall, differences in factor endowments played a decisive role in shaping productivity patterns, with land-abundant regions favouring labour-saving technologies. Pablo Castro Henry Willebald agriculture, land productivity, labor productivity, Latin America 2025-12 Charity hazard in climate adaptation: The effect of anticipatory cash transfers on demand for weather insurance https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:339615&r=&r=dev This study examines whether receiving anticipatory cash transfers during an extreme winter affects households' demand for index-based livestock insurance. We exploit a randomized field experiment conducted during the 2020/21 winter disaster in western Mongolia and combine household panel survey data with administrative insurance records. We do not find evidence of charity hazard: the estimated effect of anticipatory cash transfers on insurance uptake is small and statistically indistinguishable from zero. The 95% confidence interval rules out large crowding-out effects but remains consistent with small negative effects of up to 2 percentage points. Treatment effects are heterogeneous: among households with prior insurance experience, estimated effects are positive and statistically significant, while effects among previously uninsured households are statistically indistinguishable from zero. These findings suggest that, in contexts where assistance is incomplete and index insurance is well-established, anticipatory assistance does not need to undermine insurance demand. Roeckert, Julian Mogge, Lukas Fluhrer, Svenja Krähnert, Kati Anticipatory humanitarian assistance, extreme weather events, impact evaluation, index-based insurance, randomized controlled trial, Mongolia 2026