MENA - Middle East and North Africa http://lists.repec.org/mailman/listinfo/nep-ara MENA - Middle East and North Africa 2026-03-09 Economic, Social, and Institutional approaches to Retirement: A State of Knowledge https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05434457&r=&r=ara This article provides an integrative narrative review of the economic, social, and institutional approaches mobilized to analyze the functioning, performance, and inequalities of the Moroccan pension system. Drawing on a structured examination of both international literature and Moroccan studies, the paper explores how challenges related to financial sustainability, institutional fragmentation, and unequal coverage have gradually emerged and intensified over time.The methodology is based on a critical and comparative review of key theoretical contributions, academic analyses, and national institutional reports. This approach makes it possible to identify points of analytical convergence, persistent limitations in the reform process, and dimensions that remain insufficiently explored in the Moroccan context. In doing so, the article highlights how economic models, social theories, and institutional frameworks contribute to a better understanding of the specific features of the Moroccan pension system, particularly those linked to labor market duality and the widespread presence of informality.The findings of the review point to four major observations. First, successive parametric reforms display structural limitations in restoring the long term financial balance of pension schemes. Second, significant inequalities persist between public and private regimes, both in terms of accrued rights and pension benefit levels. Third, the integration of self-employed and informal workers remains particularly challenging, despite recent efforts to generalize social protection. Finally, the absence of a unified institutional framework continues to constrain transparency, portability of rights, and overall equity within the system.The research makes an original contribution by proposing a coherent analytical framework that explicitly links theoretical models to Moroccan specificities. It also opens avenues for future empirical research, notably on replacement rates, actuarial returns, and the internal performance of the pension scheme managed by the CMR. Zineb Taleb Tarek Zari réforme des retraites, système de retraite, soutenabilité financière. Classification JEL : J26, H55, E02 Type du papier : Recherche théorique Social protection, Morocco, pension reform, pension system, financial sustainability. JEL Classification: J26 Paper type: Theoretical Research, Maroc, sociales et institutionnelles Couverture sociale, Approches économiques, Approches économiques sociales et institutionnelles Couverture sociale Maroc réforme des retraites système de retraite soutenabilité financière. Classification JEL : J26 H55 E02 Type du papier : Recherche théorique Social protection Morocco pension reform pension system financial sustainability. JEL Classification: J26 Paper type: Theoretical Research 2025 The influence of oil price fluctuations on Morocco's economic performance: Empirical analysis using the VECM model https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05462810&r=&r=ara This study analyses the impact of oil prices on Morocco's GDP. It uses an empirical approach based on a vector error correction model (VECM) incorporating five variables: GDP, oil prices, consumer prices, balance of payments, exports and imports, over a 32-year period from 1991 to 2022.The results show that oil price fluctuations have a significant influence on Morocco's long-term economic performance. In particular, an increase in oil prices has a negative effect on GDP, highlighting the Moroccan economy's heavy dependence on energy imports. Abdelillah Moustahfid Safae Abouali Abdellah Echaoui Ismail El Balghity Energy, Morocco, Oil prices, GDP, VECM model, Maroc, Energie, Prix de pétrole, PIB, Modèle VECM 2026-01-15 Fintech as a key tool for financial inclusion in Morocco https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05413579&r=&r=ara Financial inclusion has emerged as a key driver of both economic and social development, insofar as it conditions the integration of populations into dynamics of growth and inequality reduction. In Morocco, despite progress achieved in terms of banking penetration, a significant proportion of the population (particularly women, rural inhabitants, and micro-entrepreneurs) remains excluded from the formal financial system. In this context, financial technologies are emerging as a transformative lever by offering innovative and accessible solutions capable of addressing the structural limitations of traditional banking institutions. Their contribution, however, depends on several factors: bridging the digital divide, strengthening financial and digital literacy, improving infrastructure, and consolidating an inclusive regulatory framework. The effectiveness of FinTech in promoting sustainable financial inclusion will ultimately hinge on the articulation of these conditions. This article seeks to explore how FinTech can establish itself as a key tool for financial inclusion in Morocco. It will analyze current trends in the Moroccan FinTech market, the most promising innovations, as well as the challenges that must be addressed to fully harness the potential of these two technologies in advancing financial inclusion. Drawing on recent data and comparing the experiences of different countries, it will also assess public policies and private initiatives that could foster the development of FinTech as a driver of more equitable and sustainable financial inclusion. This study is based on a rigorous documentary review drawing on high-quality scientific articles selected following the methodological framework proposed by Tranfield et al. (2003), the analysis proceeds through five key stages: planning, source identification, study selection, data extraction, and synthesis of findings. Omaima Kassim Mustapha Chami planification identification des sources sélection des études extraction des Inclusion financière fintech (technologie financière) Classification JEL : G23 Type du papier : Recherche théorique Financial inclusion Fintech ( Financial technology) JEL Classification : G23 Paper type : Theoretical Research, Technologie financière, Inclusion financière, extraction des Inclusion financière, fintech (technologie financière) Classification JEL : G23 Type du papier : Recherche théorique Financial inclusion, Fintech ( Financial technology) JEL Classification : G23 Paper type : Theoretical Research 2025 Sports Governance in Morocco: Legal Framework, Budgetary Challenges, and Preparation for the 2030 FIFA World Cup https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05429412&r=&r=ara Abstract:This paper analyzes the structural challenges of sports governance in Morocco within the context of co-hosting the 2030 FIFA World Cup. Through a cross-analysis of the legislative framework (Law 30-09) and budgetary data (Finance Acts 2020-2025), the study highlights the dichotomy between the State's infrastructural ambitions and the fragile economic model of sports federations. Key findings include: Public Investment: The massive infrastructure upgrade, including the Grand Stade Hassan II (115, 000 seats), occurring alongside a contraction in the sectoral budget (-24% between 2020 and 2025). Funding Model: The systemic reliance of federations on state subsidies (>60%), in sharp contrast to the CAF model (63% commercial revenue) and European standards. Legal Framework: The implementation gaps of Law 30-09 regarding physical education and sports. The article provides strategic recommendations to transition sports clubs into viable corporate entities and diversify national sports revenues beyond public funding. Keywords: Sports Governance, Morocco, FIFA World Cup 2030, Public Policy, Sports Finance, Law 30-09, Sports Economics. Samir Abaakil O55 Paper type: Recherche théorique Sports governance, O55, Sports infrastructure JEL Classification: Z28, Sports budget, Public policy, Legacy strategy, FIFA World Cup 2030, Morocco, Sports law, K23, H54, Z21, Infrastructures sportives JEL Classification: Z28, Budget sportif, Politique publique, Stratégie d'héritage, Coupe du Monde FIFA 2030, Maroc, Droit du sport, Gouvernance sportive, Gouvernance sportive Droit du sport Maroc Coupe du Monde FIFA 2030 Stratégie d'héritage Politique publique Budget sportif Infrastructures sportives JEL Classification: Z28 Z21 H54 K23 O55 Paper type: Recherche théorique Sports governance Sports law Morocco FIFA World Cup 2030 Legacy strategy Public policy Sports budget Sports infrastructure JEL Classification: Z28 Z21 H54 K23 O55 2025 Continuing vocational training in Moroccan formal sector companies: often limited practices and ambitious but hampered public policies https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05530088&r=&r=ara The use of the survey among a representative sample of companies in the Moroccan formal sector shows that the use of continuing training for their staff is on average very limited and poorly equipped. Strong inequalities are emerging, to the benefit of large companies and the most qualified jobs. The companies which follow an internal labour market and a dynamic economic strategy are also the most committed in continuing training. These results attest to the structural weaknesses of an institutional system intended to promote more intensive, more qualifying and more egalitarian development of continuing vocational training. François Aventur Saad-Ellah Berhili Amine Chamkhi Eric Verdier CVT policy, Morocco, inequalities, access to CVT, CVT in companies, politique de la formation professionnelle, Maroc, inégalités, formation professionnelle en entreprise, accès à la formation professionnelle 2026 The role of digitalization in tax governance in Morocco https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05452908&r=&r=ara Cet article propose une analyse documentaire de la transformation digitale opérée par la Direction Générale des Impôts (DGI) et de ses effets sur la gouvernance fiscale au Maroc. À partir d'une lecture comparative des rapports d'activité publiés entre 2000 et 2023, il examine les mutations induites par la digitalisation en matière de recouvrement fiscal, de contrôle, de transparence et de relation avec les contribuables. Trois séquences temporelles ont été distinguées afin de rendre compte des évolutions progressives du système : une phase prédigitale marquée par des contraintes structurelles, une période de transition numérique, puis une phase de consolidation des dispositifs. L'analyse met en évidence une amélioration progressive de la performance et de la fiabilité de l'administration fiscale, soulignant ainsi le rôle structurant de la digitalisation dans la modernisation de la gouvernance fiscale au Maroc. Karimi Dounia Amedjar Assem gouvernance fiscale, digitalisation, Maroc, Administration fiscale 2026-01-09 Effectiveness analysis of monetary policy measures on the local investment projects financing: Moroccan subnational governments case. https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05442849&r=&r=ara The aim of this research is to analyse the relationship between monetary policy and the choice of investment projects at Moroccan Subnational governments. It sets out to explain how these authorities react to adjustments in monetary decisions. More precisely, our study seeks to understand the impact of changes in the key rate, made by Bank Al-Maghrib, on the use of credit and investment spending by local authorities during the period 2015-2024. The results of our analysis reveal a complex and non-linear relationship between these variables. According to economic theory, a cut in the key rate should encourage credit and stimulate investment, but the case of Morocco reveals a partial transmission of this logic. Indeed, some years have shown that favourable monetary conditions do not necessarily translate into an increase in credit or investment. Es-Sellami Ayoub Kehel Mohammed Monetary policy, Key interest rate, Local investments, Subnational governments, Collectivités territoriales, Investissements locaux, Taux directeur, Politique monétaire 2026-01-04 Economic valuation of local cultural festivals and their contribution to territorial development in Morocco https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05440649&r=&r=ara This article offers an economic analysis of local cultural festivals and their contribution to territorial development in Morocco. This research highlights three major pillars: Firstly, the direct and indirect impacts of cultural festivals, resulting from the cooperation of various agents, take on economic, social, and cultural dimensions. Secondly, the enhancement of intangible and cultural heritage within the framework of a strategy to preserve our traditions through festivals. Thirdly, the social and community dimension of these events which translates into pride and local and territorial representation. All while identifying the limitations of these festivals, such as the geographical concentration in large cities, the environmental impact, and sometimes restricted access to culture for a category of people in precarious situations Elias Gharbaoui Taoufik Daghri Cultural economics, Territorial development, Intangible cultural heritage, Morocco, Développement territorial, Patrimoine immatériel, Économie de la culture, Festivals culturels, Festivals culturels Économie de la culture Développement territorial Patrimoine immatériel Maroc Classification JEL : R11 Z11 Z10 Cultural festivals Cultural economics Territorial development Intangible cultural heritage Morocco Classification JEL : R11 Z11 Z10 2026 Littératie financière et accès aux services financiers au Maroc : une analyse en composantes principales des déterminants de l’inclusion financière https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05442572&r=&r=ara The article examines the relationship between financial literacy and access to financial services in Morocco, within a context marked by the rapid digitalization of banking services and the progressive implementation of the National Financial Inclusion Strategy (SNIF). Grounded in a positivist paradigm and a quantitative, hypothesis-driven approach, the study draws on a questionnaire survey administered to a sample of Moroccan individuals. The collected data was processed through Principal Component Analysis (PCA) using SPSS, enabling the identification of latent dimensions that structure access and usage behaviors related to formal financial services. The PCA results reveal two main components. The first corresponds to an "effective inclusion" dimension, accounting for 21.18% of the total variance, and relates to the ownership and regular use of financial services such as bank accounts, electronic payment tools, credit products, and insurance. This dimension reflects the transition from simple bank account ownership to an active and sustained engagement with financial services. The second component, explaining 10.81% of the variance, captures factors associated with financial literacy and institutional trust, influenced by exposure to financial education programs, perceived levels of information, and residential characteristics (urban vs. rural). This axis highlights the importance of cognitive competencies and perceived institutional reliability in shaping individuals' financial decisions. The findings demonstrate that financial literacy is a key determinant of individuals' understanding, appropriation, and informed use of financial services, thereby fostering economic empowerment and integration into the formal financial system. The study further underscores the need to strengthen public policies focused on financial education, institutional transparency, and inclusive digitalization of financial services. Finally, the conclusions suggest that improving both financial literacy and institutional trust is essential to reducing access inequalities and supporting sustainable financial inclusion in Morocco. Mouzoun Zakarya Ammi Anouar Maroc., Analyse en Composantes Principales, Confiance institutionnelle, Accès aux services financiers, Littératie financière, Inclusion financière 2026-01-01 YOUTH ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND TAX DIGITALIZATION IN MOROCCO: ISSUES, CONSTRAINTS AND FORMALIZATION PROSPECTS. https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05450839&r=&r=ara Face aux mutations économiques et technologiques contemporaines, l'entrepreneuriat des jeunes s'impose comme un axe stratégique majeur des politiques publiques de développement au Maroc. Toutefois, malgré la multiplication des programmes d'appui et d'incitation à la création d'entreprises, la persistance d'un secteur informel important révèle des dysfonctionnements structurels, parmi lesquels figurent la complexité du système fiscal et la faiblesse de la culture de conformité. Dans ce contexte, la digitalisation fiscale apparaît comme un levier déterminant susceptible de favoriser l'intégration des jeunes entrepreneurs dans l'économie formelle.Cette recherche adopte une approche qualitative fondée sur une revue approfondie de la littérature académique et institutionnelle relative à l'entrepreneuriat des jeunes, à la gouvernance fiscale et à la transformation numérique des administrations publiques. L'analyse mobilise des travaux nationaux et internationaux ainsi que des rapports émanant d'organismes publics marocains, notamment la Direction Générale des Impôts (DGI), le Haut-Commissariat au Plan (HCP) et l'Agence Nationale de Promotion de l'Emploi et des Compétences (ANAPEC).Les résultats montrent que la digitalisation des procédures fiscales contribue à la réduction des coûts administratifs, à l'amélioration de la transparence et à la simplification de la relation entre l'administration fiscale et les jeunes entrepreneurs. Elle permet notamment de diminuer les délais de traitement des déclarations, de réduire les risques d'erreurs et de faciliter l'accès à l'information fiscale. Toutefois, son impact demeure limité par des facteurs tels que l'insuffisance des compétences numériques, la faible sensibilisation aux obligations fiscales, la persistance de la méfiance institutionnelle et les inégalités territoriales d'accès aux infrastructures numériques.L'étude conclut que la digitalisation fiscale, bien qu'essentielle, ne saurait à elle seule stimuler durablement l'entrepreneuriat des jeunes sans un dispositif d'accompagnement global incluant formation fiscale et numérique, simplification réglementaire, gouvernance inclusive et mécanismes incitatifs adaptés aux spécificités des jeunes entrepreneurs. Une approche systémique impliquant l'ensemble des parties prenantes (administration fiscale, établissements de formation, structures d'accompagnement, secteur privé) s'avère indispensable pour maximiser les retombées de la transformation numérique sur l'écosystème entrepreneurial. Mselmi Chaimae Tax digitalization, Business formalization, Public governance, Tax compliance, Digital transformation, Morocco, Youth entrepreneurship, Youth entrepreneurship Tax digitalization Business formalization Public governance Tax compliance Digital transformation Morocco 2025-12-31 Introduction - Le Maroc : un développement économique et humain entravé par diverses segmentations sociétales ? https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05530085&r=&r=ara Le chemin vers le développement économique et social qu'emprunte le Maroc l'inscrit dans une « économie de marché segmentée », comme l'a avancé Hertog (2022), en adaptant au monde arabe l'approche en termes de « variétés du capitalisme » élaborée par Hall et Soskice (2001). Telle est l'hypothèse qui fonde la problématique commune aux deux dossiers, dans ce numéro et le précédent, que la revue Formation Emploi consacre au Maroc. Au regard de cet idéal-type, diverses segmentations sociétales se... Saïd Hanchane Eric Verdier labour market segmentation, relationship between training and employment, inequalities, labour market situation, employment, Morocco, economic development, développement économique, emploi, inégalités, Maroc, relation formation-emploi, segmentation du marché du travail, situation du marché du travail 2026 Do Employment Subsidies Affect Skill Intensity and Capital Formation? Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1808&r=&r=ara This study investigates the impact of employment subsidies on the dynamics of labor markets and production technologies in Turkey's manufacturing sector, with a focus on a 2016 subsidy reform that extended a 6-percentage-point reduction in employer-side social security contributions to previously ineligible micro firms. Leveraging a difference-in-differences approach, we examine the effects of the policy on employment, capital investment, capital intensity and skill upgrading across firms of varying sizes. Our findings reveal that micro firms responded with significant employment gains, while small firms increased capital investment and capital–labor intensity in the form of tangible assets. However, the policy had no measurable effect on skill upgrading, highlighting its limits in fostering structural labor market transformation. By extending the evaluation of employment subsidies beyond job creation, this study contributes to the broader discourse on active labor market policies and their role in promoting sustainable growth and technological development in emerging economies. GüneÅŸ AÅŸık Çağlar Yüncüler 2025-12-20 The Influence of Behavioral Biases on IPO Intentions: A Study of Moroccan SMEs https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05440332&r=&r=ara Abstract : The introduction on the stock market constitutes a considerable strategic opportunity for Moroccan SMEs, offering them access to new financing and the opportunity to increase their reputation. However, the use of the stock exchange remains restricted in this sector. This article aims to study the factors influencing the IPO decision of Moroccan SME managers, by adopting a global approach that combines Ajzen's planned behavior model and the contributions of behavioral finance. We used bibliometric analysis and systematic review to examine the patterns and trends of subject area , with the main focus on citations as the primary measurement unit . Leveraging tools such as Scopus and VOSviewer, the analysis involves 28 papers to unveil evolving trends and scholarly contributions spanning from 2020-2025 . This analysis is important to filling a gap in the researched field because no other bibliometric study has been done on the same topic before .It will also serve to provide a scientific foundation for following research .The results showed that the behavioral biases in particular Overconfidence, optimism, Loss aversion, Herding, risk perception significantly influence the decision of SME managers to resort to an IPO. Overconfidence, optimism, Herding, risk perception has a positive impact, motivating executives to regard the IPO as a profitable option. As a result, the combination of behavioral biases and Theory of Planned Behavior makes it possible to better explain the intention of SMEs to go public than economic or financial factors alone . Keywords: Behavioral finance, IPO, Moroccan SMEs, TPB, Behavioral Biases , Overconfidence Sanae El-Amraoui El Aaroubi Overconfidence, Behavioral Biases, TPB, Moroccan SMEs, IPO, Behavioral finance 2025-12-18 Auf dem Weg zu einem gerechteren marokkanischen grünen Steuersystem: Vorschlag für ein progressives Besteuerungsmodell auf der Grundlage sektoraler CO₂-Fußabdrücke. https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05458513&r=&r=ara The growing intensity of climate change and environmental constraints has challenged the sustainability of traditional growth models, particularly in emerging economies characterized by strong sectoral heterogeneity. In this context, green taxation has gained prominence as a key policy instrument for internalizing environmental externalities while supporting sustainable development. However, the effectiveness and equity of environmental taxation critically depend on its design, sectoral alignment, and institutional context. This article examines whether a green taxation model based on progressive sectoral carbon footprintscan enable Morocco to reconcile environmental effectiveness, fiscal equity, and economic sustainability.The study adopts a systematic literature reviewmethodology in accordance with the PRISMA guidelines, drawing on peer-reviewed articles indexed in Scopus and Web of Science over the period 2007–2025. A total of 22 studies were included, encompassing econometric analyses (ARDL and CS-ARDL), computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, sectoral impact assessments, and institutional studies related to environmental taxation in Morocco and comparable economies.The results indicate that green and carbon taxation can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the long run, particularly when combined with complementary policies such as energy capacity expansion, technological upgrading, and digital transformation. However, the findings also reveal substantial sectoral disparitiesin carbon intensity and adjustment capacity, which limit the effectiveness of uniform tax schemes. Progressive, sector-based taxation frameworks emerge as more suitable for enhancing environmental efficiency while mitigating adverse economic and social effects. Moreover, institutional quality, fiscal governance, and revenue recycling mechanisms are identified as decisive factors shaping policy outcomes and social acceptability.Overall, the article demonstrates that a progressive green taxation model grounded in sectoral carbon footprints constitutes a promising governance tool for aligning environmental objectives with fiscal equity and economic sustainability in Morocco.Keywords:Green taxation; Carbon tax; Sectoral carbon footprint; Fiscal equity; Environmental sustainability; Morocco; Progressive taxation Omar Hniche Pr Sara Kayouh Green taxation Carbon tax Sectoral carbon footprint Fiscal equity Environmental sustainability Morocco Progressive taxation, Green taxation, Carbon tax, Sectoral carbon footprint, Fiscal equity, Environmental sustainability, Morocco, Progressive taxation 2025-12-31 The Nationwide Camp Closure Policy in Iraq and the Welfare of Displaced Populations https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1807&r=&r=ara After the end of their conflict with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), the Iraqi government initiated a policy to close all camps across Iraq housing individuals affected by conflict and facilitate their return to their areas of origin. At these areas of origin, millions of internally displaced people (IDPs) were also displaced by the ISIL conflict and already living outside of the camps, meaning both groups now co-exist outside of the camps. Using a novel dataset on movements of camp residents from closed camps, I leverage district-level variation in the population shares of inflows from the closed camps to estimate their effects on the welfare of IDP households already living outside the camps. Fearing ISIL-related stigma and targeting, inflows from the camps may not disclose their movements, while others faced barriers to returning to their areas of origin and moved to other districts. To overcome the resulting endogeneity in the inflows from camps, I use an instrumental variables strategy which leverages policy-driven inflows from closed camps while being orthogonal to local district conditions. Contrary to the debate on the camp closures policy, I do not find evidence that overall, inflows from camps affect the welfare of IDP households already living outside of camps. The difference in characteristics between inflows from the camps and IDP households receiving them outside of the camps appears to primarily mitigate the effects of the policy. However, compared to maleheaded IDP households outside of camps, female-headed IDP households are more vulnerable to the inflows, highlighting the necessity of tailored policy interventions to address their specific welfare needs, especially their access to healthcare. Dahab Aglan 2025-12-20 Conflict Intensity and Entrepreneurial Intentions: Evidence from Iraqi Regions https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12507&r=&r=ara This study examines the relationship between conflict events, conflict-related fatalities, and entrepreneurial intentions in Iraq, one of the most war-affected countries over the past four decades and a context largely overlooked in the entrepreneurship literature. By combining regional-level data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) with individual-level data from the World Values Survey (WVS), we find that, controlling for other factors, entrepreneurial intentions are significantly lower in regions experiencing higher levels of conflicts and fatalities. This finding is robust across multiple estimation methods and model specifications. Furthermore, our results indicate that financially stable individuals show a sharper decline in entrepreneurial intentions in response to conflicts compared to financially vulnerable individuals. Hassan F. Gholipour Georges Harb Mohammad Reza Farzanegan business formation, conflicts, entrepreneurial intentions, Iraq, WVS 2026 Kuwait: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2026/052&r=&r=ara Kuwait has started the transition from an oil dependent welfare state towards a dynamic and diversified economy. Reform momentum has been building, starting with enactment of the Financing and Liquidity Law. Alongside a public investment scale-up, the authorities are working on wide-ranging fiscal and structural reforms, including to energy subsidies and mortgage lending. International Monetary Fund 2026-02-24 A New Method for Measuring Underlying Inflation in Türkiye https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2605&r=&r=ara In this study, we propose a trend inflation indicator by using the Multivariate Unobserved-Components Stochastic Volatility Outlier-Adjusted (MUCSVO) model to better capture the underlying inflation dynamics in Türkiye. Our measure effectively filters out temporary shocks and exhibits superior forecasting performance at horizons beyond three months. Moreover, results imply that the permanent component of inflation declined from 3.9 in October 2023 to 2.2 in June 2025. Services emerge as the dominant driver of trend inflation, contributing about 55% despite having only 31% of the consumption basket weight. These results highlight the importance of sectoral decomposition in understanding inflation persistence and improving monetary policy design. As an addition to the underlying trend inflation indicators currently monitored by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT), the MUCSVO model enhances the CBRT’s capacity to monitor underlying price dynamics. Merve Capan Ahmet Gulveren Tuba Ozsevinc Unobserved component models, Trend inflation, Inflation forecasting, Monetary policy design 2026 The Politics of War Commemoration in Iran https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:698va_v1&r=&r=ara Scholarship on collective memory shows that war commemoration shapes political legitimacy, national identity, and moral authority. Yet most research analyzes commemorative narratives while paying limited attention to the events through which memory is enacted. We shift the focus to public war commemoration as an event-based practice that overlaps with contentious politics and social movements: commemorative gatherings are organized, recurrent, symbolically charged, and can function as state-led movements when used to advance government agendas. We ask: Why do autocratic states hold war commemoration events at higher rates in some localities than others? Drawing on scholarship on state-led movements and research on the political consequences of war, we develop two mechanisms. First, similar to other state-mobilized activities, commemorations depend on a regime’s social bases and organizational infrastructures and should be more frequent where such networks are stronger. Second, war studies show that war-affected communities—including veterans, martyrs’ families, and districts with high fatalities—remain politically consequential long after conflict, creating incentives for concentrated commemorative activity. We analyze Iran’s postwar mobilization following the Iran–Iraq War (1980–1988), a paradigmatic case of prolonged conflict and sustained state-led activism. Using original subnational data on commemoration events, mosque membership, wartime fatalities, and measures of veterans' and martyrs’ families, we test these mechanisms. Negative binomial models show that commemoration is significantly more frequent in districts with stronger conservative support, denser mosque networks, larger student populations, and higher concentrations of war-affected constituencies. These findings show how postwar states transform the residues of war into patterned, state-led mobilization across space. Kadivar, Mohammad Ali Khani, Saber 2026-02-15