War and peace
http://lists.repec.org/mailman/listinfo/nep-war
War and peace
2019-03-04
Intergenerational Mobility in Africa
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13497&r=war
We examine intergenerational mobility (IM) in educational attainment in Africa since independence, using census data from 26 countries. First, we map and characterize the geography of IM. There is substantial variation both across and within countries with differences in literacy of the old generation being the strongest correlate of IM. Inertia is stronger for rural, as compared to urban, households and present for both boys and girls. Second, we explore the correlates of mobility across more than 2,800 regions. Colonial investments in the transportation network and missionary activity are associated with upward mobility. IM is also higher in regions close to the coast and national capitals as well as in rugged areas without malaria. Upward mobility is higher and downward mobility is lower in regions that were more developed at independence, with higher urbanization and employment in services and manufacturing. Third, we identify the effects of regions on educational mobility by exploiting within-family variation from children whose families moved during primary school age. While sorting is sizable, there are considerable regional exposure effects.
Alesina, Alberto F
Hohmann, Sebastian
Michalopoulos, Stelios
Papaioannou, Elias
Development; education; inequality; intergenerational mobility
2019-01
Should Bangladesh exports to countries with better institutional or comparatively similar institutional form?
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:91976&r=war
Using panel data for the years 2006 to 2015, this study empirically investigates the effect of rule of law as an institution on Bangladesh’s exports to twenty-eight European Union countries (EU28) based on gravity model analysis. Two-step econometric results suggest that institutional rule of law is strongly associated with Bangladesh’s exports, and institutional quality provides evidence of this significant effect. Furthermore, exports of Bangladesh are driven by economic size, market size, and the real exchange rate as well as rule of law. These results are suggestive of an important joint role for both trade and institutions in the long run.
Pavel, Md Sadik
Burhan, Seikh Ruksana
Papiya, Tanim
Bangladesh, Gravity model, Institution, Panel data, Rule of law.
2018-02-05
Labor market Integration of Refugees in Scandinavia after 2015
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ratioi:0319&r=war
Sweden, Denmark and Norway have long been refugee destinations. All three countries received record numbers of asylum seekers between 2015 and 2016. This paper gives an overview and comparison on integration policies and labor market outcomes for refugees in the three countries after 2015. The paper also provides lessons from Scandinavia on fostering successful labor market integration for refugees.
Joyce , Patrick
Patrick Joyce; Labor market; Integration; Education; Social welfare.
2019-02-19
Does revolution change risk attitudes? Evidence from Burkina Faso
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2019_002&r=war
A popular uprising in 2014, led to a revolution overthrowing the sitting president of Burkina Faso. We investigate if individuals’ risk attitudes changed due to this revolution. Specifically, we investigate the impact of the revolution on risk attitudes, by gender, age and level of education. The analysis is based on a unique nationally representative panel Household Budget Survey, which allows us to track the changes in the risk attitudes of the same individuals before, during and after the revolution. Our results suggest that the impact of the revolution is short-term. Individuals become risk averse during the revolution but converge back to the pre-revolution risk attitudes, slightly increasing their risk taking, after the revolution is over. Women are more risk taking than the men after the revolution but are more risk averse during the revolution. In general, older individuals tend to have higher risk aversion than the younger individuals. During the revolution, however, the individuals with higher level of education are less willing to take risk.
Sepahvand, Mohammad H
Shahbazian, Roujman
Bali Swain, Ranjula
Risk attitudes; exogenous shock; revolution; gender; Burkina Faso
2018-09-01
How Enhancing Information and Communication Technology has affected Inequality in Africa for Sustainable Development: An Empirical Investigation
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92345&r=war
This study examines if enhancing ICT reduces inequality in 48 countries in Africa for the period 2004-2014. Three inequality indictors are used, namely, the: Gini coefficient, Atkinson index and Palma ratio. The adopted ICT indicators include: mobile phone penetration, internet penetration and fixed broadband subscriptions. The empirical evidence is based on the Generalised Method of Moments. Enhancing internet penetration and fixed broadband subscriptions have a net effect on reducing the Gini coefficient and the Atkinson index, whereas increasing mobile phone penetration and internet penetration reduces the Palma ratio. Policy implications are discussed in the light of challenges to Sustainable Development Goals.
Asongu, Simplice
Odhiambo, Nicholas
ICT; Inclusive development; Africa; Sustainable development
2018-09
The Comparative African Economics of Governance in Fighting Terrorism
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92346&r=war
This study assesses the comparative economics of governance in fighting terrorism in 53 African countries for period 1996-2012. Four terrorism variables are used, namely: domestic, transnational, unclear and total terrorism dynamics. Nine bundled and unbundled governance variables are employed, notably: political stability/no violence, voice & accountability, political governance, government effectiveness, regulation quality, economic governance, corruption-control, the rule of law and institutional governance. The empirical evidence is based on Fixed Effects regressions. In the analytical procedure, we first bundle governance indicators by means of principal component analysis before engaging the empirical exercise with the full sample. In the final step, specifications are based on a decomposed full sample in order to articulate the fundamental characteristics for comparative purposes. The following broad findings are established. First, good governance is an appealing tool in fighting terrorism. Second, the relevance of the good governance dynamics is as follows in order of increasing relevance: economic governance, institutional governance and political governance. The findings are presented in increasing order of magnitude to emphasise fundamental features in which governance dynamics have the highest effect in mitigating terrorism.
Asongu, Simplice
Tchamyou, Vanessa
Asongu, Ndemaze
Tchamyou, Nina
Terrorism; Governance; Africa
2018-01
Let’s Stick Together: Labor Market Effects from Immigrant Neighborhood Clustering
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cesisp:0475&r=war
We investigate if there are positive economic effects for individuals residing in ethnic neighborhoods, in particular if the likelihood of labor market participation among foreign born is affected by residentially aggregating with other people from the same region. We also examine to what extent the income level among foreign born who has a job is affected by the extent to which they congregate in ethnic enclaves. We use Swedish micro-level data for the time period 2007 to 2015 and run a Heckman estimation for the population overall, for immigrants, but also for four distinct immigration groups: those from poor and middle-income countries in Africa or Asia, from Former Yugoslavia, and from the Middle East. We control for personal and neighborhood characteristics, as well as work place characteristics. The results suggest that there may be positive effects from ethnic concentration, but only if the group makes up a significant share of the population in that neighborhood.
Lobo, José
Mellander, Charlotta
Labor market participation; foreign born; immigration; clustering effects; income levels
2019-02-18
What stunts economic growth and causes the poverty trap?
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92238&r=war
In spite of an identical initial condition, why are some parts of the world so rich and others so poor? To address this question, this paper constructs a simple theoretical model that incorporates human infrastructure and child labor The first part of the paper shows that the condition of bifurcation from an identical initial condition depends on the technology level. We also show that current dynamic trends highly depend on initial endowments and productivity. The second part of the paper examines the effect of development assistance in recipient countries. By analyzing two types of programs; the elimination of child labor and support to strengthen human infrastructure, we show that the former (latter) program is effective for middle- (low-) income countries.
Mizushima, Atsue
Child labor, human infrastructure, human capital, divergence, poverty trap, development aid
2019-02-18
How Term Limits Constrain the Emergence of Agency and Resilience
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2019_004&r=war
This paper investigates how timing norms affect the emergence of agency in regional resilience. It forwards three arguments: timing norms establish the boundary for action and generates corollary timing norms that schedule adaptive strategies, term limits shape incentives for institutional work, and the interplay of term limits, institutional work, and agency, shape the path of regions for adaptation or adaptability. Findings show that incentives for policy action arises at the beginning of terms, term limits generate incentives for types of institutional work. Layering is not effective in maintaining resource allocation to agendas, affecting regional tendencies for adaptation and adaptability.
David, Lucinda
agency; regional resilience; institutions; institutional work
2019-02-19
The fiscal lifetime cost of receiving refugees
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0751&r=war
This study estimates the fiscal consequences of receiving refugees, over the refugees’ lifetime. It uses data from Sweden in 2015, and the calculations account for refugees’ age, years since immigration, and country of origin. The estimated average annual fiscal net contribution over the lifetime of the average refugee (58 years) ranges from –12 per cent of GDP per capita for refugees from the countries of origin for which labor market performance has historically been the strongest, to –22 per cent for those for which it has been the weakest. The estimates imply that if the European Union received all refugees currently in Asia and Africa, the implied average annual fiscal cost over the same time span would be at most 0.6 per cent of GDP.
Ruist, Joakim
refugees; immigration; public finances
2019-02
Declared Support and Clientelism
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13460&r=war
Recent studies of clientelism predominantly focus on how elites use rewards to influence vote choices and turnout. This article shifts attention towards citizens and their choices beyond the ballot box. Under what conditions does clientelism influence citizens' decisions to express political preferences publicly? When voters can obtain future benefits by declaring support for victorious candidates, their choices to display political paraphernalia on their homes or bodies may reflect more than just political preferences. We argue that various factors, such as political competition and candidates' monitoring ability, heighten citizens' propensity to declare support in response to clientelist inducements. Building on insights from fieldwork, formal analyses reveal how and why such factors can distort patterns of political expression observed during electoral campaigns. We conduct an experiment in Brazil, which predominantly corroborates predictions about declared support and clientelism.
Nichter, Simeon
Nunnari, Salvatore
2019-01
Severe housing deprivation: Addressing the social sustainability challenge in the EU
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucd:wpaper:201903&r=war
Severe housing deprivation is an important element of social sustainability. Social sustainability has been described as a concept in ‘chaos’ and of limited utility. This paper argues that meeting basic human needs is central to social sustainability and housing is a key dimension of need. It examines severe housing deprivation by analysing the extent to which households living in extreme poverty experience problems such as overcrowding, sub-standard dwelling quality and housing-related risks such as unaffordable housing and rent/mortgage arrears. The paper draws on data from the EU Survey on Income and Living Conditions for this purpose. However, household surveys are somewhat limited in the extent to which they capture some groups living in ‘extreme poverty’. Therefore, we supplement these data with a case study of a particularly vulnerable group who experience housing exclusion in several relatively wealthy European countries - Roma in Ireland. The paper concludes with a discussion of strategies to address severe housing deprivation in the EU.
Nessa Winston
Patricia Kennedy
Housing quality; housing affordability; Roma; social sustainability; poverty; deprivation; UN SDGs
2019-02-13
Parental ethnic identity and child development
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2019003&r=war
We examine the relationship between parental ethnic identity and cognitive developmentin ethnic minority children. This aspect of parental identity may shape children’s cognitive outcomes through a direct influence on parenting behaviour, or by mediating parental access to social resources. Drawing an ethnic minority sample from a detailed UK cohort study, we find a negative association between maternal majority identity and children’s cognitive test scores. This result is driven by poor households, by those who lack local family support networks, and by those who mostly speak a foreign language at home. We suggest that differential access to social resources is the most persuasive explanation of this result. Differences in parenting behaviour do not seem to play an important role.
Stuart Campbell
Ana Nuevo-Chiquero
Gurleen Popli
Anita Ratcliffe
ethnic identity; national identity; child development
2019-02
Charitable Behaviour and Political Ideology: Evidence for the UK
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2019002&r=war
Using data from the most recent large scale UK household longitudinal survey (UKHLS), we explore the effects of political ideology on charitable behaviour, specifically monetary donations and time volunteered. The UKHLS contains detailed information on political preferences, in terms of: political affiliation; the strength of support for political parties; the level of interest in politics and the party an individual would vote for tomorrow. We employ a number of modelling frameworks including static and dynamic models and double hurdle models, which allow political influences to have differing effects across the decision to donate and the amount of money or time donated. The consistent finding across the different estimators is that being aligned to a stated political party is positively associated with donating time and money. In addition, we find that political liberalism has a larger effect on both types of philanthropic behaviour than political conservatism. The largest effects across specifications are generally for alignment with the Green Party. However, further analysis reveals that, during the period of the UK Coalition Government and after its collapse when the Conservative Party gained power, the effect of political affiliation to the Green Party on monetary donations is substantially reduced, whereas the opposite effect is found for the amount of time volunteered.
Sarah Brown
Karl Taylor
Monetary donations; Political affiliation; Volunteering
2019-02
Tax Evasion on a Social Network
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2019005&r=war
We relate tax evasion behavior to a substantial literature on social comparison in judgements. Taxpayers engage in tax evasion as a means to boost their expected consumption relative to others in their social network. The unique Nash equilibrium of the model relates optimal evasion to a (Bonacich) measure of network centrality: more central taxpayers evade more. Given that tax authorities are now investing heavily in big-data tools that aim to construct social networks, we investigate the value of acquiring network information. We do this using networks that allow for celebrity taxpayers, whose consumption is widely seen, and who are systematically of higher wealth. We show that there are pronounced returns to the initial acquisition of network information, albeit targeting audits with highly incomplete knowledge of social networks may be counterproductive.
Duccio Gamannossi degl’Innocenti
Matthew D. Rablen
Tax Evasion; Social Networks; Network centrality; Optimal Auditing; Social Comparison; Relative Consumption
2019-02
Local Economic Hardship and Its Role in Life Expectancy Trends
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrr:papers:wp389&r=war
Recent research has found, in some groups of Americans, dramatic increases in deaths due to drug overdose and suicide and an overall stagnation of trends toward increased longevity. This study examines the link between mortality of older working age (45 to 64) adults and local economic downturns in the U.S. to evaluate the role of economic shifts in various causes of death and their related mortality trends. Specifically, we estimate regression models to test the hypotheses that the longevity effects of poor economic prospects are reflected through (1) increased suicide, drug overdose, and other “deaths of despair” and (2) other causes of death linked to exposure to economic and social stress such as heart and cerebrovascular disease. To avoid the problem of endogeneity of local economic conditions to mortality conditions, we measure the local economic shock of lost employment with predicted employment based on baseline industrial composition and national trends in employment by industry. We find evidence consistent with prior research that among non-Hispanic white adults, midlife mortality has increased since 1990, particularly among those with low educational attainment. We also find that “deaths of despair” are important contributors to that trend. However, we find that while distress in local, area economies does predict increased mortality for chronic disease, it predicts decreased mortality from suicides, opioids, and other substance abuse. This finding suggests caution in the application of the construct of despair in explaining recent mortality patterns.
John Bound
Arline T. Geronimus
Timothy A. Waidmann
Javier M. Rodriguez
2018-10
Migration by Necessity and by Force to Mountain Areas: An Opportunity for Social Innovation
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01992189&r=war
This article discusses current European migration flows, their impacts on the European Alps, and future options for addressing issues of migration. It explores these issues from the perspective of regional development, taking into account the currently prevailing goals of economic competitiveness and local self-interest. It focuses on the Alps, a region in which rural areas are losing economic, demographic, and decision-making power due to outmigration. An end to outmigration in the Alps is currently unlikely, but there may be other ways to stem the resulting losses. Based on a review of migration literature and 3 case studies, the article explores ways in which programs for hosting and integrating migrants can also benefit long-time residents by contributing in many different ways to the development of mountain areas. From this perspective, efforts to integrate migrants can be seen as a form of social innovation that can contribute to the future of the entire Alpine economic space. Rather than focusing on drivers of migration or its humanitarian or constitutional aspects, the paper explores the potential benefits to all parties of a better integration of migrants into the host regions, and the possibility that this could become a model of social innovation. It suggests an agenda for research on how to reach this potential and agenda points for policy regarding measures to fulfill the potential.
Manfred Perlik
Andrea Membretti
social innovation,peripheral regions,exclusion,mountain immigration,European Alps.,Forced migration,social integration,displacement
2018
Explaining the evolution of ethnicity differentials in academic achievements: The role of time investments
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ozl:bcecwp:wp1901&r=war
Children of Asian immigrants in most English-speaking destinations have better academic outcomes, yet the underlying causes of their advantages are under-studied. We employ panel time-use diaries by two cohorts of children observed over a decade to present new evidence that children of Asian immigrants begin spending more time than their peers on educational activities from school entry; and, that the ethnicity gap in the time allocated to educational activities increases over time. By specifying an augmented value-added model and invoking a quantile decomposition method, we find that the academic advantage of children of Asian immigrants is attributable mainly to their allocating more time to educational activities or their favorable initial cognitive abilities and not to socio-demographics or parenting styles. Furthermore, our results show substantial heterogeneity in the contributions of initial cognitive abilities and time allocations by test subjects, test ages and points of the test score distribution.
Ha Trong Nguyen
Luke B Connelly
Huong Thu Le
Francis Mitrou
Catherine L Taylor
Stephen R Zubrick
Migration, Education, Test Score Gap, Time Diary, Quantile Regression, Second generation Immigrants, Australia
2019-02
An Empirical Analysis of the Time Pattern of Remittances and Tongan Migrants in New Zealand
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mas:dpaper:1801&r=war
Altruistic motivation of sending remittances is a decentralised decision of the migrants. A phenomenon known in the literature as remittances decay hypothesis suggests that the pattern of remittances follows an inverted U shape. We examine whether remittances have declined based on the length of absence of Tongan migrants in New Zealand (NZ). Results from a survey analysis for 309 households indicate that at the early stages of migration remittances increase and it declines over the length of stay in NZ. The time period at which remittances reach the maximum point after which it starts to decline is about 17 years.
Rukmani Gounder
Microeconomic Behaviour, Remittances, Decay Hypothesis, Migration, Tonga
2018
Optimal Selling Mechanisms with Endogenous Proposal Rights
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13542&r=war
We study a model of optimal pricing where the right to propose a mechanism is determined endogenously: a privately informed buyer covertly invests to increase the probability of offering a mechanism. We establish the existence of equilibrium and show that higher types get to propose a mechanism more often than lower types allowing the seller to learn from the trading process. In any equilibrium, the seller either offers the price he would have offered if he was always the one to make an offer or randomises over prices. Pure strategy equilibria may fail to exist, even when types are continuously distributed. A full characterization of equilibria is provided in the model with two types, where notably the seller's profit is shown to be non-monotonic in the share of high-value buyers.
Auster, Sarah
Kos, Nenad
Piccolo, Salvatore
bargaining power; mechanism design; Optimal Pricing
2019-02
Food Insecurity in Pakistan: A RegionWise Analysis of Trends
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2018:157&r=war
Per capita dietary energy supply exceeds per capital dietary energy consumption in Pakistan. Almost half of its population is reported food insecure in various studies. Whether this high incidence of food insecurity persists in the country or not is understudied particularly when food security is measured from access (physical and economic) to food. This study bridges this literature gap. Using household expenditure survey based method to measure dietary energy consumption at household level as a measure of food security, it finds out region wise and quintile-wise trends in incidence of food insecurity in Pakistan during 2004-16. Seven rounds of HIES conducted during 2004-16 are used for analysis. Results show food insecurity trends are fluctuating at national and sub-national levels in Pakistan. It is increasing during 2004-08 and 2011-14 while decreasing during 2009-10 and 2014-16. Increasing trend is found in food insecurity at points in time where natural (earthquake and floods) or manmade (food price crisis, conflict) affected different areas of the country. Households’ expenditure quintile-wise trends of food insecurity show that bottom quintile has stable and high incidence of food insecurity. Second and third quintiles also have high level food insecurity. Additionally, these quintiles show high vulnerability to various shocks affecting their purchasing power. Lower but stable incidence of food insecurity in top quintile shows that apart economic aspects, food security has non-economic aspects as well like nutrition awareness/education. Provincial analysis show incidence of food insecurity is highest in Sindh and Balochistan while lowest in KPK. From our analysis it is implied that social safety nets and emergency relief efforts by government though protect food insecure population against shocks; they are not sustainable solutions. It is implied from trends analysis that sustainable solutions to protect both physical and economic access to food are required in Pakistan to cut hunger to lower levels and reduce people vulnerability to various shocks.
Adeeba Ishaq
Mahmood Khalid
Eatzaz Ahmad
Food Insecurity, Minimum Dietary Energy Consumption and Requirement, Calories, Pakistan, Urban, Rural, Punjab Sindh, Balochistan, KPK
2018
International Relocation of Production and Growth
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13422&r=war
The relocation of production and exports from the North to the South has been a central feature of economic globalization. Using data on approximately 5,000 products, this paper describes this process over the 1996-2014 period and assesses its impact on cross-country growth. Although increased competition from lower income countries tended to have a significant negative effect on the previous exporting countries of the relocated products, most rich countries were able to upgrade their export baskets and avoid a negative aggregate impact. A one-standard negative deviation in a country's export relocation index tended to reduce the country's annual growth by 0.3 percentage points at the median country income but had zero impact at the top of the country income distribution. Medium and low income countries were the most negatively affected by the increased competition from their pair countries.
Alcalá, Francisco
Solaz, Marta
Globalization; growth; offshoring; product shocks; Trade
2018-12
Risk and Rationality:The Relative Importance of Probability Weighting and Choice Set Dependence
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lau:crdeep:19.02&r=war
Does international trade help or hinder the economic development of border regions relative to interior regions? Theory tends to suggest that trade helps, but it can also predict the reverse. The question is policy relevant as regions near land borders are generally poorer, and sometimes more prone to civil conflict, than interior regions. We therefore estimate how changes in bilateral trade volumes affect economic activity along roads running inland from international borders, using satellite night-light measurements for 2,186 border-crossing roads in 138 countries. We observe a significant ‘border shadow’: on average, lights are 37 percent dimmer at the border than 200 kilometers inland. We find this difference to be reduced by trade expansion as measured by exports and instrumented with tariffs on the opposite side of the border. At the mean, a doubling of exports to a particular neighbor country reduces the gradient of light from the border by some 23 percent. This qualitative finding applies to developed and developing countries, and to rural and urban border regions. Proximity to cities on either side of the border amplifies the effects of trade. We provide evidence that local export-oriented production is a significant mechanism behind the observed effects.
Marius Brulhart
Olivier cadot
Alexander Himbert
Trade liberalization, border regions, economic geography, night lights data
2019-02
Arms Races and Conflict: Experimental Evidence
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notcdx:2019-01&r=war
We study escalation and aggression in an experimental first-strike game in which two participants play multiple rounds of a money-earning task. In each round, both players can spend money to accumulate weapons. The player with more weapons can spend money to strike against the other player, which almost totally eliminates the victim’s earnings potential and removes their capacity to strike. Weapons can serve as a means of deterrence. In four treatments, we find that deterrence is strengthened if weapon stocking cannot be observed, that a balance of power is effective in maintaining peace, and that mutually beneficial trade decreases the risk of confrontation, but not necessarily the likelihood of costly arms races.
Klaus Abbink
Lu Dong
Lingbo Huang
Mutually assured destruction, balance of power, arms races, deterrence, trade, laboratory experiment
2019-01
Permanent-Income Inequality
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13540&r=war
We characterize the distribution of permanent-income and quantify the value of assets and human capital in lifetime wealth portfolios. We estimate the distribution of human wealth using nonparametric identification results that allow for state-dependent stochastic discounting and unobserved heterogeneity. The approach imposes no restrictions on income processes or utility. Accounting for the value of human capital delivers a different view of inequality: (i) in 2016 the top 10% share of permanent-income was 1/3 lower than the corresponding share of assets; (ii) however, since 1989, the top 10% share of permanent-income has grown much faster than the corresponding share of assets. Human wealth has a mitigating influence on inequality, but this effect has waned over time due to the growing importance of assets in lifetime wealth portfolios. We find that consumption expenditures are tightly linked to permanent-income; however, liquidity constraints can lead to substantial deviations below permanent-income.
Abbott, Brant
Gallipoli, Giovanni
Consumption; Human Capital; inequality; permanent income; Wealth
2019-02
India's social policies: Recent changes for the better and their causes
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gigawp:314&r=war
Despite being a consolidated democracy with free and fair elections and having a political system with intense party competition, a relatively vibrant civil society, and a functioning federal set-up, India still ranks poorly in terms of the coverage, generosity, efficiency, and quality of its social protection. This is difficult to explain based on the factors usually advanced for the implementation of generous social policies. A second puzzle is the predominantly protective nature of welfare policies in India in the current era of globalisation, which should necessitate policies enabling workers to participate successfully in a more demanding economic environment. These puzzles may be explained partly by (a) the long-term insulation of the Indian economy from international competition, (b) the low share of industry and modern services in GDP until recently, (c) the precedence of identity policies, (d) the fragmentation of the political sphere, and (e) the meagre empowerment of women in India. We should, however, acknowledge that change is underway and that the picture is not bleak across India as a whole - being supported by economic reforms and growth, a greater degree of decentralisation and party competition within the country, increasingly discerning voters, and progress on female education and employment opportunities.
Betz, Joachim
India,social policies,productive and protective social policies,party competition,clientelism,women's education and formal employment
2019
Markets are a function of language: Notes on a narrative economics
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201918&r=war
Narratives are under-theorised and until recently under-recognised as core variables influencing the speed and direction of changes in expectations and, therefore, as core macroeconomic variables that shape the policy processes of central banks. The author examines below how the thousands of micro-level narratives garnered on a regular basis by the Bank of England's staff of regional agents can inform what Ricardo Reis and Alan Blinder (Understanding the Greenspan standard, 2005) term the "macroeconomic allegories" that influence monetary policy decision-making. The contacts that make up the "network" perform descriptive, explanatory, and interpretive labor in situ putting words both to the ephemera of local expectations across the UK and to the rapidly changing competitive pressures unfolding in global markets. Internal studies have demonstrated that the micro-level narratives collected and scored by the agents provide the most reliable information on the future course of the British economy of any of the projections or forecasts available to the Bank.
Holmes, Douglas R.
central banks and their policies,role and effects of psychological,emotional,social,and cognitive factors on the macro economy
2019
Water user associations: a review of approaches and alternative management options for Sub-Saharan Africa
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iwmirp:284166&r=war
Building on existing literature and the analysis of a portfolio of development projects (past and under implementation), this paper reviews the evolution of water user associations (WUAs) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), reflecting on the conceptualization of how they operate, and the promised outcomes related to irrigation development, and the efficient and effective delivery of irrigation services. It also moves one step further from existing studies on WUAs, postulating that additional reflection is needed to understand the limitations of WUAs and proposes alternative, viable and context-based adapted models. This need is particularly strong in SSA where irrigation is incipient, and governments and donors are still consolidating their development approaches. Whereas a growing body of international literature takes into account the sociopolitical context of decentralized irrigation management, practical indication on what remains to be done to address the various limitations found in SSA stays meagre and scattered. The objective of this paper is not to challenge the myth of WUAs but to learn how to better deliver on the promised outcomes. The underlying message is that, if the SSA region is to be made water and food secure while respecting resource sustainability, community development, livelihoods and equality of resource access, the recurrent templates for WUA management and governance need to be revisited and adapted to local needs.
Aarnoudse, E.
Closas, Alvar
Lefore, Nicole
Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Financial Economics, Food Security and Poverty, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
2018-06-13
Materialism and Economic Progress
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qld:uq2004:604&r=war
Most empirical studies on the impact of materialism have focused on its effects at the micro-level, such as on individual wellbeing. This paper explores one of the macroeconomic impacts of materialism: its relationship with economic progress. A new conceptualization of materialism based on self-identity construction is offered and used to hypothesize that materialism drives economic progress by encouraging consumption and innovation. This analysis is tested using a survey item from the World Values Survey as an index for materialism. The empirical results, based on a short panel of data covering 74 nations and two periods, provide sufficient support to the conclusion that materialism can be a positive force for economic progress.
Lingguo Xu
Peter E. Earl
D. S. Prasada Rao
Materialism; consumption; innovation; economic growth; economic progress; World Values Survey
2019-02-26
Promoting socially desirable behaviors: experimental comparison of the procedures of persuasion and commitment.
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2019-05&r=war
In a series of experiments, we test the relative efficiency of persuasion and commitment schemes to increase and sustain contribution levels in a Voluntary Contribution Game. The design allows to compare a baseline consisting of a repeated public good game to, respectively, four manipulation treatments relying on: an information strategy, a low commitment strategy, a high commitment strategy and a promise strategy. We confirm the advantages of psychologically orientated policies as they increase the overall level of contribution and for some, that is commitment and promises, question the decreasing trend traditionally observed in long term contributions to public goods.
Cécile Bazart
Mathieu Lefebvre
Julie Rosaz
Experiment, Persuasion, Commitment, Voluntary Contribution Mechanism.
2019
Tracking the Sustainable Development Goals: Emerging Measurement Challenges and Further Reflections
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:327&r=war
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) recently adopted by the United Nations represent an important step to identify shared global goals for development over the next two decades. Yet, the stated goals are not as straightforward and easy to interpret as they appear on the surface. Review of the SDG indicators suggests that some further refinements can be made to their wordings, and their underlying objectives can be further clarified. We bring attention to potential pitfalls with interpretation, where different evaluation methods can lead to different conclusions about country performance. Review of the United Nations’ SDG database highlights the overwhelming challenge with missing data: data are available for just over half of all indicators and for just 19 percent of what is needed to comprehensively track progress across countries and over time. We offer further reflections and propose some simple but cost-effective solutions to these challenges.
Dang, Hai-Anh H.
Fu, Haishan
Serajuddin, Umar
SDGs,monitoring,data challenges,survey data,international organization
2019
Beyond the Average: Ethnic Capital Heterogeneity and Intergenerational Transmission of Education
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:322&r=war
Estimating the effect of ethnic capital on human capital investment decisions is complicated by the endogeneity of immigrants’ location choice, unobserved local correlates and the reflection problem. We exploit the institutional setting of a rare immigrant settlement policy in Germany, that generates quasi-random assignment across regions, and identify the causal impact of heterogeneous ethnic capital on educational outcomes of children. Correcting for endogenous location choice and correlated unobservables, we find that children of low-educated parents benefit significantly from the presence of high-educated parental peers of the same ethnicity. High educated parental peers from other ethnicities do not influence children’s learning achievements. Our estimates are unlikely to be confounded by the reflection problem since we study the effects of parental peers’ human capital which is pre-determined with respect to children’s outcomes. Our findings further suggest an increase in parental aspirations as a possible mechanism driving the heterogeneous ethnic capital effects, implying that profiling peers or ethnic role models could be important for migrant integration policies.
Chakrabortya, Tanika
Schüller, Simone
Zimmermann, Klaus F.
Education,Ethnic Capital,Germany,Peer Effects,Policy Experiment
2019
Efficient Incentives in Social Networks: "Gamification" and the Coase Theorem
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:193148&r=war
This study explores mechanism design for networks of interpersonal relationships. Agents' social (i.e., altruistic or spiteful) preferences and private payoffs are all subject to asymmetric information; utility is (quasi-)linear, types are independent. I show that any network of at least three agents can resolve any allocation problem with a mechanism that is Bayesian incentive-compatible, ex-interim individually rational, and ex-post Pareto-efficient (also ex-post budget-balanced). By contrast, a generalized Myerson-Satterthwaite theorem is established for two agents. The central tool to exploit the asymmetry of information about agents' social preferences is "gamification": Resolve the agents' allocation problem with an efficient social-preference robust mechanism; ensure agents' participation with the help of a mediator, some network member, who complements that mechanism with an unrelated hawk-dove like game between the others, a game that effectively rewards (sanctions) strong (poor) cooperation at the expense (to the benefit) of the mediator. Ex interim, agents (and the mediator) desire this game to be played, for it provides them with a platform to live out their propensities to cooperate or compete. - A figurative example is a fund-raiser, hosted by the "mediator", complemented with awarding the best-dressed guest.
Daske, Thomas
networks,social preferences,mechanisms,gamification,Coase theorem
2019
The Impact of Trade Conflict on Developing Asia
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0566&r=war
This paper analyzes the effects of the current trade conflict on developing Asia using the Asian Development Bank’s Multiregional Input–Output Table (MRIOT), allowing us to calculate the impact on individual countries and on sectors within countries. The analysis estimates the direct impact on all tariff-affected goods; uses input–output analysis to estimate indirect effects on gross domestic product (GDP), exports, and employment; and allows for redirection of trade toward other producers using the approach of Feenstra and Sasahara (2017). A full escalation of the bilateral United States (US)–People’s Republic of China (PRC) trade conflict would shave 1% off PRC GDP and 0.2% off US GDP. The rest of developing Asia could see small net gains thanks to trade redirection, particularly in the electronics sector. A trade war in autos and parts would hurt the European Union and Japan. The conflict has substantial negative effects on PRC and US employment, but only minor impacts on current account balances.
Abiad, Abdul
Baris, Kristina
Bertulfo, Donald Jay
Camingue-Romance, Shiela
Feliciano, Paul Neilmer
Mariasingham, Joseph
Mercer-Blackman , Valerie
Bernabe, John Arvin
exports; input–output; international trade; tariffs; trade conflict; trade redirection
2018-12-14
Does Regional Integration Matter for Inclusive Growth? Evidence from the Multidimensional Regional Integration Index
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0559&r=war
This paper employs a multidimensional approach to gauge the degree of regional integration and analyze impact on growth, inequality, and poverty. It constructs a multidimensional regional integration index (MDRII) series that embodies six key facets of regional integration: (i) trade and investment, (ii) money and finance, (iii) regional value chains, (iv) infrastructure and connectivity, (v) movement of people, and (vi) institutional and social integration. The MDRII confirms that regional integration is most advanced in the European Union which scores high in all six dimensions; Asia comes second with the largest contribution from infrastructure and connectivity. Empirical analysis suggests significant and positive development impact of regional integration even when trade and financial openness is controlled. The regional value chain, movement of people, and institutional and social integration dimensions have been significant drivers of economic growth. Infrastructure and connectivity improve income distribution. Overall integration alongside the dimensions of trade and investment, money and finance, and institutional and social integration appear to significantly and robustly reduce poverty.
Park, Cyn-Young
Claveria, Racquel
composite index; economic growth; inequality; poverty; regional integration
2018-10-19
Ten years of the G20: unconditional achievements, sustainable challenges, new risks, future priorities
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:021912&r=war
Informal nature often provokes G20 accusations of lack of legitimacy and effectiveness. Our analysis shows that such criticism is not entirely fair. Over the past decade, member countries have accepted 2,230 commitments and demonstrated a high level of their implementation (about 75%). Improving the financial regulatory system, especially in countries where regulatory gaps have led to a global crisis; strengthening oversight of national financial institutions and regulators; providing global liquidity to overcome the crisis; coordination and implementation of reforms of the international tax system are the indisputable achievements of the G20. The current geopolitical situation forms a new reality in the system of international relations. The ability of the G-20, created in very different conditions, to cope with sustainable and new risks is being questioned. However, the results of the G20’s work over the past decade and the significant potential for the development and implementation of collective decisions suggest that the G20 could take responsibility for the formation of new rules in the system of international economic relations.
Larionova, Marina (Ларионова, Марина)
Ignatov, Alexander (Игнатов, Александр)
Popova, Irina (Попова, Ирина)
Sakharov, Andrey (Сахаров, Андрей)
Shelepov, Andrey (Шелепов, Андрей)
2019-01
Toward an Understanding of the Development of Time Preferences: Evidence from Field Experiments
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25590&r=war
Time preferences have been correlated with a range of life outcomes, yet little is known about their early development. We conduct a field experiment to elicit time preferences of over 1,200 children ages 3-12, who make several intertemporal decisions. To shed light on how such primitives form, we explore various channels that might affect time preferences, from background characteristics to the causal impact of an early schooling program that we developed and operated. Our results suggest that time preferences evolve substantially during this period, with younger children displaying more impatience than older children. We also find a strong association with race: black children, relative to white or Hispanic children, are more impatient. Finally, assignment to different schooling opportunities is not significantly associated with child time preferences.
James Andreoni
Michael A. Kuhn
John A. List
Anya Samek
Kevin Sokal
Charles Sprenger
2019-02
Farmer choice of strategies alleviating food insecurity due to changing weather patterns
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea19:284275&r=war
Sonko, Ebrima
Florkowski, Wojciech
Agodzo, Sampson
Antiwe-Agyei, Phillip
Environmental Economics and Policy
2019-02
Development-Induced Displacement: The Case of Dam Construction in Slovakia and the Czech Republic
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92464&r=war
The paper deals with the topic of development-induced displacement based on Slovak and Czech historical experience with dam construction projects. Favourable natural conditions in the Central European area, such as hydropower potential and relief, have enabled many hydroelectric plants to be constructed, whereby no negligible number of cases have been accompanied by resettlement of the affected population. Such processes had significant social and economic consequences. In the present study we predominantly focus on the ways of compensation and treatment of the displaced, whereby comparative approach is applied. Besides, results of key informant interviews are debated in detail. The paper is concluded by policy recommendations regarding potential future development-induced displacement.
Zagoršeková, Natália
Čiefová, Michaela
development-induced displacement, dams, compensation
2019-01
The economic cost of terrorism and natural disasters: A deeper analysis of the financial market markets of Pakistan
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92278&r=war
Do natural disasters and terrorism affect the financial markets of Pakistan? We aimed to answer this question by studying a large dataset of stock returns of financial markets of Pakistan with respect to natural disasters and terrorist activities. The dataset consists of a total of 289 terrorist events and 45 natural disasters; taken from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and Emergency Database (EM-DAT), covering events from the year 2003 to 2017. The event study methodology used to analyze daily, weekly and monthly stock returns of concerned sectors. Calculated the Abnormal returns with the help of market adjusted return model. The findings show that terrorist events have a statistically significant negative impact on the banking sector returns as well as insurance sector returns. Furthermore, the impact on the Pakistan Stock Market is insignificant. The impact of natural disasters on stock markets was not significant however when studied separately the floods have a negative significant impact on bank returns while insignificant for insurance and stock market returns. On the other hand, earthquakes are negatively affecting the stock market but no impact has been reported significant neither for insurance nor for banks returns.
Najam, Najam Ul Sabeeh
Mehmood, Arshad Mehmood
Terrorism, Natural Disasters, Stock Market, Financial Sectors, Event Study Methodology, Market Adjusted Returns Model
2019-01-18
Birds of a feather stick together: How overlapping group affiliations shape altruistic behavior
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92374&r=war
In the current paper, I deploy a novel laboratory experiment to answer the following questions: Does people’s other-regarding behavior change with the number of group memberships they have in common with others? Can uncertainty about others’ group memberships weaken in-group favoritism and lead to more selfish behavior? There are two main findings. First, on average pro-social concerns increase monotonically with the number of joint group affiliations. On the individual level, however, I document a considerable heterogeneity. Second, in situations where participants have only in- complete information on others’ group affiliations, they do not behave more selfishly. It seems as if the awareness of one joint group affiliation in combination with ignorance about the nature of other group memberships is sufficient to elicit maximum other-regarding concerns. My results highlight the importance of carefully navigating workers perceptions on complex and overlapping group affiliations as a task of diversity management within organizations where a high degree of social diversity characterizes the workforce.
Bauer, Kevin
Social groups, Behavioral Heterogeneity, Moral Wiggle Room
2019-01-09
CSR and Local Development in Oil Industry in Nigeria
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02005068&r=war
The institutional theory of corporate social responsibility (CSR) argues that content and practice of CSR adapt to the institutional environment. In the oil industry in Nigeria, and more widely in developing countries where institutions work on a personalized mode, with a dominant coalition made of powerful elites manipulating rents and privileges to ensure stability, CSR also adapts. Using the crypto-morality concept, we demonstrate that in such institutional environments, CSR evolves according to both the detectability of corporate practices, and penalties that stakeholders impose to corporations. Therefore, the corporate contribution to local development as part of CSR aims mainly to meet legitimate and illegitimate expectations of the most influential stakeholders in order to protect company's operations.
Hervé Lado
2019-02-03
Social Divisiveness and Conflicts: Grievances Matter!
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02044350&r=war
Somehow paradoxically, it is common for research on the determinants of civil wars to conclude that social factors matter much less, if at all, than economic factors. We contribute to this debate by conducting an original empirical analysis in which we investigate whether the deliberate unequal treatment of groups of people by a government can give rise to movements opposing the current political system. In doing so, we significantly innovate on the existing literature exploring the links between grievances and civil war. We look at all forms of social conflict, violent and non-violent, high and low intensity. Our index of social divisiveness captures multiple dimensions of observed unequal group treatments and is not restricted to latent ethnic divisions. We control for time-invariant factors in a large sample of countries over a long period of time. We take into account measurement uncertainty, dynamics, cross-region heterogeneity, localised spatial effects, non-linearity of effects, and a potential endogeneity bias. Our results show that social divisiveness has a large, positive, and statistically significant robust effect on anti-system opposition. It also appears to be the main channel through which long-lasting ethnic polarisation influences the onset of civil wars.
Raouf Boucekkine
Rodolphe Desbordes
Paolo Melindi-Ghidi
civil resistance,civil war,grievances,social conflict,social divisiveness
2019-02
Biofuels and food security: Evidence from Indonesia and Mexico
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02019497&r=war
We analyze food security effects of biofuel production by using the synthetic control method. This retrospective and graphical analysis focuses on Indonesia and Mexico from 2000 to 2013. Indonesia is a major biodiesel producer while Mexico is specialized in maize and ethanol. Our findings show that biodiesel production positively affects food security through the increase in daily per capita energy consumption and food production index, but we observe the reverse effect for bioethanol. After the adoption of biofuels, the gap between Indonesia and its counter-factual allows us to conclude that biodiesel production does not harm food security. This could be explained by the fact that biodiesel production uses some feedstocks which do not directly compete with food crops; moreover, biodiesel exports generate revenues which are allocated to food imports. However, the gap between Mexico and its counter-factual suggests that bioethanol production leads to a reduction in food security, this because it uses maize which is the staple food of many Mexicans. Furthermore, Mexican ethanol exports compete with that of the U.S. Our results are robust to several falsification tests.
Mohamed Boly
Aïcha Sanou
Food security,Biofuels,Impact assessment
2019-02-14
Stalled Racial Progress and Japanese Trade in the 1970s and 1980s
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12133&r=war
Many of the positive economic trends coming out of the Civil Rights Era for black men stagnated or reversed during the late 1970s and early 1980s. These changes were concurrent with a rapid rise in import competition from Japan. We assess the impact of this trade shock on racial disparities using commuting zone level variation in exposure. We find it decreased black manufacturing employment, labor force participation, and median earnings, and increased public assistance recipiency. However these manufacturing losses for blacks were offset by increased white manufacturing employment. This compositional shift appears to have been caused by skill upgrading in the manufacturing sector. Losses were concentrated among black high school dropouts and gains among college educated whites. We also see a shifting of manufacturing employment towards professionals, engineers, and college educated production workers. We find no evidence the heterogeneous effects of import competition can be explained by unionization, prejudice, or changes in spatial mismatch. Our results can explain 66-86% of the relative decrease in black manufacturing employment, 17-23% of the relative rise in black non-labor force participation, and 34-44% of the relative decline in black median male earnings from 1970-1990.
Batistich, Mary Kate
Bond, Timothy N.
race, trade, import competition, black-white wage gap, Japan
2019-02
Natural resources, economic growth and geography
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92396&r=war
Worldwide materials extraction increased by a factor of 8.4 over the course of the 20th century. In the meantime, global GDP and population increased by factors of about 22 and 4, respectively. This reveals that one of the key factors driving the increase in the exploitation of the resources was the growth in world population, although mitigated by the reduction in the intensity in the use of the resources in production. In this paper, we present a model that combines the theory of endogenous growth and the economy of natural resources, but taking into account the geographical distribution of economic activity. Indeed, the New Economic Geography provides insights about two elements that, although speeding up GDP growth, can curb the pressure on natural resources, namely the reduction in transports costs and a boost to pace of innovation.
González-Val, Rafael
Pueyo, Fernando
industrial location, endogenous growth, renewable resource, geography
2019-02
When stealing, go for millions? Quantitative analysis of white-collar crime sentencing in Poland.
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92340&r=war
The aim of this article is to analyse the length of custodial sentences for white-collar crimes in the context of Polish criminal policy. The analyses, based on the new and original data set obtained from case files, showed the non-linear dependency between the custodial sentence and the damage caused by a given fraud. From the perspective of the criminal law and economics, such a non-linearity may generate incentives for committing frauds on a bigger scale, because as the scale increases the relative severity of punishment decreases. Moreover, the gender bias in sentencing for the white-collar crimes in Poland was proven and in such cases women not only did receive lower custodial sentences, but also those ruled by female judges were lower.
Czarnocki, Kazimierz
Janulek, Dawid
Olejnik, Łukasz
court decisions; white-collar crime; bias in sentencing
2019-02-23
Natural resources volatility and economic growth: evidence from the resource-rich region
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92293&r=war
This research paper investigates the impact of natural resources’ volatility on economic growth. The paper focused on three resources rich economies namely; UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Oman. Using data from 1970 to 2016 and employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration approach developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001), we found that both natural resources and their volatility matters from the growth perspective. The study found strong evidence in favor of a positive and statistically significant relationship between the natural resource and economic growth for the economy of UAE and Saudi Arabia. Similarly, for the economy of Oman, a positive but insignificant relationship is observed between natural resources and economic growth. However, we found that the volatility of natural resources has a statistically significant negative impact on the economic growth of all three economies. This study contradicts the traditional concept of resources curse and provides evidence of resources curse in the form of a negative impact of volatility on economic growth.
Hayat, Arshad
Tahir, Muhammad
Natural Resources, Volatility, Economic Growth, ARDL Modeling, GCC
2019
An account of Nepal disasters and economic fallout
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01995386&r=war
Nepal has remained a disaster-prone country with major disasters occurring at various intervals. There has not been sufficient research on Nepal disasters regarding the degree of loss, effects on the economy and post-disaster responses and its effects on economic revival. This paper was primarily set to analyze economic effect of natural disasters from 1971 to 2017 but for the lack of complete data on loss value for all the events an attempt was made to make a proper estimate for all the events; and the economic loss ensuing from the disasters has been assessed as a proportion of gross domestic product, and further to its impact on the year to year growth of the economy. The paper adds to the finding of other studies that disaster lends negative effect and that too is more prominent in the event of major disasters and more pronounced when coupled with political disruptions.
Sujan Adhikari
Dileep Adhikary
Typology/category of disasters,Hazards and vulnerability,Economic growth and loss
2019-01-25
Poverty and unemployment in Spain during the 2008's financial crises
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92145&r=war
The main objective of this paper is to examine the contribution of the high unemployment rate for the increase in the level of poverty and income inequality during and after the 2008 global financial crisis in Spain. Secondary household survey data from the European Union database (EU_SLIC) for 2008 and 2014 was used for the descriptive and inferential statistics. The two years are chosen purposely since 2008 was the year that the global financial crisis began, and 2014 was the year that unemployment rate was very high and Spain's economy was starting to revive from the crisis. Binary Logistic regression is used for inferential statistics since the dependent variable (being poor) is a binary variable and basic activity status(with four categorical variables), citizenship (with three categorical variables) and a number of workers in the household (as a ratio of the total number of individuals in the household) are used as explanatory variables. Based on the descriptive and inferential statistics results, the contribution of the high unemployment rate for the increase in poverty rate and income inequality was high in Spain during and after the 2008 global financial crisis. The probability of being poor for unemployed increases from 0.18 in 2008 to 0.255 in 2014. Being unemployed, being inactive households, and being from other citizens are more likely to poor compared with workers, and local citizens respectively.
Workneh, Migbaru Alamirew
Poverty, Inequality, Unemployment, Financial crisis, Bi- nary Logit model
2018-08-31
Conflict, growth and human development. An empirical analysis of Pakistan
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02018948&r=war
In this paper, we use the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bound Testing cointegration approach to study the long-term relationship between internal conflict, economic growth, and human development in Pakistan. We show that, by offering better opportunities and reducing radicalization, education could help reduce conflict in Pakistan. The government's spending on its defense budget, however, is high, and results in low social spending. We also show a positive contribution to conflict reduction by public order which justifies the government's anti-terrorist policy. It also appears that economic reforms and wealth do not help to reduce internal conflicts in Pakistan. This result is an illustration of a situation in which globalization is perceived as a threat, and economic growth fuels political and social unrest. Political rights and civil liberties do not seem to reduce conflict either, because periods of democracy have experienced a resurgence of violence. This finding suggests that, in a fragile country like Pakistan, respect for public order is a priority before restoring democracy. Pakistan seems to be caught in a low development trap in which conflict is the main variable to consider before seeing the benefits of reforming the economy.
Syed Muhammad Rizvi
Marie-Ange Veganzones-Varoudakis
Conflict,Economic growth,Human development,Pakistan.
2019-02-14
Complexity Theory, Democratic Transition and Public Policy Choices in Iraq
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92382&r=war
This article adopts Complexity Theory to improve understanding of Iraq's future patterns ofdemocratic stabilization and consolidation. It emphasizes the importance of soft technologies, aswell as hard technologies for making better public policy choices. The article also sheds light onIraq's institutional evolution, on its processes and mechanisms of variation and replication. Itemphasizes the importance of new culturally-sensitive public policies and political economies. Thefirst part of the article briefly describes the main political, economic, social and cultural changes inIraq since the fall of the Saddam regime. The second part discusses the system of social security inIraq and in formerly ISIS controlled territories. The final section deals with important challenges ofde-radicalization necessary that are necessary for the democratization, liberalization,institutionalization and consolidation of new institutions. A new spatial politics of public policymaking in formerly ISIS-occupied territories is also discussed in the concluding section.
Cerami, Alfio
Iraq, ISIS, Complexity Theory, Soft Technologies, Hard Technologies, Political Economy
2018-08-02
Assessing the effects of combating illicit financial flows on domestic tax revenue mobilization in developing countries
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02019073&r=war
Using propensity score matching, this paper assesses the effects of tackling illicit financial flows (IFFs) on domestic tax revenue mobilization in developing countries. It uses data on countries' compliance with Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Recommendations as treatment variable and involves 67 developing countries around the world. We find that countries which comply with FATF Recommendations (Cooperatives countries) record higher values of domestic tax revenue in comparison with those which do not comply with those Recommendations (Non-cooperatives countries). Otherwise, Cooperatives countries outperform Non-cooperatives countries in terms of domestic tax revenue mobilization. More interestingly, the extent of this adverse impact depends on tax structure: goods and services taxes are more affected, followed by VAT and excise taxes. Our results suggest that developing countries could mobilize more domestic tax revenue by implementing policies to curtail IFFs. Moreover, they should establish sound institutions.
Jean-Louis Combes
Alexandru Minea
Pegdéwendé Nestor Sawadogo
Propensity score matching,Illicit financial flows,Tax revenue,Institutions
2019-02-14
What can we learn on Chinese aid allocation motivations from new available data? A sectorial analysis of Chinese aid to African countries
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01777484&r=war
Marlène Guillon
Jacky Mathonnat
Official development assistance,sectorial analysis,Africa,China
2018-04-24
Local Norms Describing the Role of the State and the Private Provision of Training
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12159&r=war
Apprenticeship systems are essentially based on the voluntary participation of firms that provide (and usually also finance) training positions, often incurring considerable net training costs. One potential, yet under-researched explanation for this behavior is that firms act in accordance with the norms and expectations they face with in the local labor market in which they operate. In this paper, we focus on the Swiss apprenticeship system and ask whether local norms towards the private, rather than the public, provision of training influence firms' decisions to offer apprenticeship positions. In line with this hypothesis, we find that the training incidence is higher in communities characterized by a stronger norm towards the private provision of training, which we measure using local results from two national-level plebiscites that explicitly dealt with the role of the state in the context of the apprenticeship system. This finding turns out to be robust to a series of alternative specifications and robustness checks, as well as to an instrumental-variable strategy that tackles the issue of potential endogeneity of normative attitudes.
Kuhn, Andreas
Schweri, Jürg
Wolter, Stefan C.
public goods, private provision of training, social norms, normative attitudes towards the role of the state, vocational education and training, apprenticeship training
2019-02
Why has the Philippines’ Growth Performance Improved? From Disappointment to Promising Success
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0542&r=war
This paper analyzes why the Philippines’ growth performance has improved significantly in recent years. As in the medium to long term actual growth adjusts to potential, we posit that the reason behind this improvement is that the country’s potential growth is increasing. We derive an estimate of the potential growth rate, defined as the growth consistent with a constant unemployment rate, through the notion of Harrod’s natural growth rate and Okun’s Law. Kalman filter estimation allows us to obtain a time series of potential growth rate for 1957-2017. Results corroborate that potential growth is increasing. It reached 6.3% in 2017, the highest value during the last 60 years. We find that in recent years, labor productivity growth (technical progress) accounts for most of the country’s potential growth rate, as the trend labor force growth displays a downward trend. A decomposition of labor productivity growth shows that the within effect accounts for 70% of it, and that most of it is due to manufacturing productivity growth. As actual growth in 2017 reached 6.7% and to maintain the growth momentum, Philippine authorities ought to focus on increasing potential growth to enable more room for growth in a stable macroeconomic environment. Finally, two key results emerge from our analysis of output and productivity growth, and employment. First, estimates of Okun’s Law indicate that the response of Philippine unemployment and visible underemployment to output growth is very small. However, the response of total underemployment is positive and significant. Second, productivity growth does not destroy employment.
Felipe, Jesus
Estrada, Gemma
Harrod’s natural growth rate; Kalman filter; Okun’s Law; Philippines; potential growth; underemployment; unemployment
2018-04-11
Hazard Analysis on Public–Private Partnership Projects in Developing Asia
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0548&r=war
Developing Asia’s infrastructure gap results from both inadequate public resources and a lack of effective channel to mobilize private resources toward desired outcomes. The public–private partnership (PPP) mechanism has evolved to fill the infrastructure gap. However, PPP projects are often at risk of becoming distressed or worst being terminated because of the long-term nature of contracts and the many different stakeholders involved. This paper applies survival time hazard analysis to estimate how project-related, macroeconomic, and institutional factors affect the hazard rate of the projects. Empirical results show that government’s provision of guarantees, involvement of multilateral development banks, and existence of a dedicated PPP unit are important for a project’s success. Privately initiated proposals should be regulated and undergo a competitive bidding to reduce the hazard rate of the project and the corresponding burden to government. Economic growth leads to successful project outcomes. Improved legal and institutional environment can ensure PPP success.
Lee, Minsoo
Han, Xuehui
Quising, Pilipinas
Villaruel, Mai Lin
infrastructures; investment policy; public–private partnership; survival analysis
2018-07-23
Asia’s Middle-Income Challenge: An Overview
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0525&r=war
Developing Asia has undergone a dramatic shift over the past 5 decades from a region of mainly low-income economies toward one that is largely middle income. Compared with world aggregate data, developing Asia now has a much greater proportion of middle-income economies. The region faces the challenge of sustaining rapid growth after graduating from low to middle income, and moving further to high income. Evidence shows that it takes longer for economies to move from upper-middle to high income than shifting from lower-middle to upper-middle income. Still, developing Asian economies were able to shift more quickly than the rest of the world, whether the transition is from lower-middle to upper-middle income or from upper-middle to high income. The experience of newly industrializing economies shows that innovation, human capital, and infrastructure all played a vital role in their quicker transformation from middle to high income.
Estrada, Gemma
Han, Xuehui
Park, Donghyun
Tian, Shu
Asia; economic growth; middle income
2017-11-20
Flexibility of Adjustment to Shocks: Economic Growth and Volatility of Middle-Income Countries before and after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0526&r=war
The pronounced and persistent impact of the global financial crisis of 2008 motivates our empirical analysis of the role of institutions and macroeconomic fundamentals on countries’ adjustment to shocks. Our empirical analysis shows that the associations of growth level, growth volatility, shocks, institutions, and macroeconomic fundamentals have changed in important ways after the crisis. Gross domestic product growth across countries has become more dependent on external factors, including global growth, global oil prices, and global financial volatility. After accounting for the effects global shocks, we find that several factors facilitate adjustment to shocks in middle-income countries. Educational attainment, share of manufacturing output in gross domestic product, and exchange rate stability increase the level of economic growth, while exchange rate flexibility, education attainment, and lack of political polarization reduce the volatility of economic growth. Countries cope with shocks better in the short to medium term by using appropriate policy tools and having good long-term fundamentals.
Aizenman, Joshua
Jinjarak, Yothin
Estrada, Gemma
Tian , Shu
growth; institutions; middle income; shocks; volatility
2017-11-21
Back in Business: Industrial Policy for Emerging Economies in the New Globalization
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0537&r=war
We explore the potential roles of industrial policy in the transition from middle-income to high-income status, and the actual experience of industrial policy in emerging economies. Guided by the conceptual framework of the neo-Schumpeterian approach, we look at industrial policy in the context of structural transformation, i.e., in transforming economic structures as well as the institutions supporting these structures. Today’s emerging economies face a dual structural transformation challenge: (i) to move closer to the current world technology frontier (traditional catch-up), and (ii) to adjust to technological change in advanced economies and increasingly binding environmental and social constraints. The feasible set of industrial policy is constrained by state capacity. The paradox of industrial policy is that it is most straightforward when state capacity is the most constrained. We suggest that emerging economies still should explore what we denote as sector-based horizontal policies addressing market and state failures in individual industries.
Berglof, Erik
Cable , Vince
emerging economies; industrial policy; innovation; state capacity; structural transformation
2018-02-20
Constructing the Asia-Pacific Regional Cooperation and Integration Index: A Panel Approach
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0544&r=war
In this paper, we propose a panel approach in the construction of the Asia-Pacific Regional Cooperation and Integration Index (ARCII) to strengthen the index’s ability to track the progress of economic integration in the region over time. Panel-based procedures are employed in imputing missing values, normalizing raw data, and deriving dimensional and subdimensional weights via principal components analysis. Findings suggest the pace of integration in Asia was broadly steady over the 11-year sample period (2006–2016). However, modest gains have been made as a majority of economies in the sample have moved up in their levels of regional integration from 2006 to 2016. Of the six dimensions featured in the ARCII, trade and investment and movement of people are the main drivers of regional integration, while the money and finance dimension was the weakest link. Based on global normalization, Asia comes second to the European Union (EU) in progress on regional integration, but in recent years a few Asian economies have broken through to the top tier dominated by the EU economies.
Park, Cyn-Young
Claveria, Racquel
Asia; composite index; regional integration
2018-05-10
Place-Based Preferential Preferential Tax Policy and Its Spatial Effects: Evidence from India’s Program on Industrially Backward Districts
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0524&r=war
The Government of India initiated a program in 1994 to promote manufacturing in districts designated as backward. The way the backward districts were identified enables us to employ a regression discontinuity design to evaluate the impacts of the program. We find that the program’s 5-year tax exemption to manufacturers led to a significant increase in firm entry and employment in relatively better-off backward districts, particularly in light manufacturing industries. However, the program also resulted in negative spillover effects in districts which were neighboring these backward districts and relatively weaker in economic activity. The findings emphasize that the spatial effects of place-based policies deserve greater attention from policy makers.
Hasan, Rana
Jiang, Yi
Rafols , Radine Michelle
backward districts; place-based policy; preferential tax; sharp regression discontinuity; spatial spillovers
2017-11-16
Did the Arab Spring Reduce MENA Countries' Growth?
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12161&r=war
This paper examines the economic ramifications of the recent political reconfigurations that the MENA region witnessed, commonly known as the Arab Spring, utilizing MENA countries data during period 2005-2016. Using the Arellano-Bond dynamic panel estimation, the paper estimates a growth model using the difference in the log of GDPC between periods t and t+1. Buttressed by sufficient empirical evidence, the paper's findings corroborate that the Arab Spring had been negatively associated with growth.
Arayssi, Mahmoud
Fakih, Ali
Haimoun, Nathir
Arab Spring, growth, MENA countries, panel data
2019-02
Does Child Labor Lead to Vulnerable Employment in Adulthood? Evidence for Tanzania
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12162&r=war
This paper investigates the relationship between child labor and status in employment in adulthood. We aim to contribute to the literature that focuses on the obstacles to the formation early in life of the skills that allow people to avoid vulnerability. Using the panel data survey for the Kagera region of Tanzania, we select children who were 7 to 15 years old in the 1990s and follow up with them in the first decade of the 2000s to study the consequences of child labor on adult employment. We estimate fixed effects linear probability models. We find that child labor is associated with vulnerable employment in adulthood. Negative adult employment effects arise when children who are younger than 11-12 work more than ten to twenty hours per week. This result is driven by girls. As for types of child labor, work on the household farm shows the largest negative effects.
Burrone, Sara
Giannelli, Gianna Claudia
child labor, vulnerable employment, unpaid work, women's employment in developing countries, Kagera region of Tanzania, Africa
2019-02
Employment Discrimination against Indigenous Peoples in the United States: Evidence from a Field Experiment
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12131&r=war
We conducted a resume correspondence experiment to measure discrimination in hiring faced by Indigenous Peoples in the United States (Native Americans, Alaska Natives, and Native Hawaiians). We sent employers realistic resumes for common jobs (retail sales, kitchen staff, server, janitor, and security) in 11 cities and compared interview offer rates. We signaled Indigenous status in one of four different ways. Based on 13,516 applications, we do not find hiring discrimination in any context. These findings hold after numerous robustness checks, although our checks and discussions raise multiple concerns that are relevant to audit studies generally.
Button, Patrick
Walker, Brigham
indigenous peoples, employment discrimination, Native American, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, Indian reservations, correspondence experiment, resume study, Oaxaca-Blinder Decomposition
2019-02