http://lists.repec.org/mailman/listinfo/nep-ene Energy Economics 2009-11-14 Roger Fouquet http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:18446&r=ene This paper uses panel data from 88 countries to examine the relationship between per capita GDP and per capita energy consumption. The results show that per capita GDP and per capita energy consumption are cointegrated. Also, there is a two-way short-run, long-run and strong causality between the growth of GDP and growth of energy consumption. These results are in contrast to almost all other existing studies. Sinha, Dipendra 2009-11-07 panel data; energy consumption; economic growth http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sur:seedps:123&r=ene This paper attempts to quantify the impact of exogenous non-economic factors on UK transport oil demand (in addition to income, price, and fuel efficiency) by estimating the demand relationship for oil transport for 1960-2007 using the Structural Time Series Model. From this, the relative impact on UK transport oil demand from income, price, and efficiency are quantified. Moreover, the impact of the non-economic factors is also quantified, based on the premise that the estimated stochastic trend represents behavioural responses to changes in socio-economic factors and changes in lifestyles and attitudes. The estimated elasticities for income, price and efficiency are 0.6, -0.1, and -0.3 respectively and it is shown that for efficiency and price the overall contribution is relatively small, whereas the contribution from income and non-economic factors is relatively large. This has important implications for policy makers keen to reduce transport oil consumption and associated emissions, but not willing to reduce the trend rate of economic growth. Taxes and improved efficiency only have a limited impact; hence, a major thrust of policy should perhaps be on educating and informing consumers to persuade them to change their lifestyle and attitudes and thus reduce their consumption through the non-economic instruments route. David C Broadstock, Lester C Hunt 2009-05 Transport oil demand; Structural Time Series Model, STSM; Underlying Energy Demand Trend, UEDT; Exogenous Non-Economic Factors, ExNEF. http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:wpaper:1220&r=ene We set out a model of a two-good, small open economy exporting a traditional exportable in order to …finance capital goods rental payments. We observe that the traditional export sector declines with an exogenous increase in the country's oil export earnings, while the local goods sector expands. For input price effects to emerge, land is needed as a third input. For the "large land" case, we can have imports of capital steadily decline as oil earnings expand. Earnings from oil sales are stationary under our annuitization construction. John Hartwick, Kirk Hamilton 2009-11 Dutch disease, resource discovery, invariant earnings http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp4537&r=ene This paper develops a long run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts with the standard literature on the "Dutch disease" and the "resource curse", which primarily focus on short run implications of a temporary resource discovery. Under certain regularity conditions and assuming a Cobb Douglas production function, it is shown that (log) oil exports enter the long run output equation with a coefficient equal to the share of capital. The long run theory is tested using a new quarterly data set on the Iranian economy over the period 1979Q1-2006Q4. Building an error correction specification in real output, real money balances, inflation, real exchange rate, oil exports, and foreign real output, the paper finds clear evidence for two long run relations: an output equation as predicted by the theory and a standard real money demand equation with inflation acting as a proxy for the (missing) market interest rate. Real output in the long run is shaped by oil exports through their impact on capital accumulation, and the foreign output as the main channel of technological transfer. The results also show a significant negative long run association between inflation and real GDP, which is suggestive of economic inefficiencies. Once the effects of oil exports are taken into account, the estimates support output growth convergence between Iran and the rest of the world. We also find that the Iranian economy adjusts quite quickly to the shocks in foreign output and oil exports, which could be partly due to the relatively underdeveloped nature of Iran's financial markets. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi, Mohaddes, Kamiar, Pesaran, Hashem 2009-10 growth models, long run relations, Iranian economy, oil price, foreign output shocks, error correcting relations http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gig:wpaper:111&r=ene The present article aims to analyze the effects of high oil prices since 2003 on Iran. The theoretical basis of the analysis is the rentier state approach, the basic element of which is that rents are at the free disposal of the rentier. Empirically, the paper examines the issue areas of foreign policy, domestic policy and economic policy. After proving that the oil price—despite fluctuations—has constantly been at a high level in the first decade of the twenty-first century, the discussion demonstrates that Iran has used the increased rent in-come to support a populist policy. In terms of economic policy, the regime has pursued a redistributive strategy. The country’s foreign policy, particularly the ostentatiously pursued atomic program, has been very expensive since it provoked sanctions whose costs were initially balanced only by high rent income. Yet, in his first term, Ahmadinejad failed to prepare Iran for the situation that has occurred as a result of the global financial crisis: the redistributive policy of the regime has meant that an oil price below US$70 or US$75 now constitutes a severe challenge for the Iranian state budget. Martin Beck 2009-10 Iran, oil, rentier-state approach, domestic policy, economic policy, foreign policy  http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gig:wpaper:112&r=ene This paper studies the causal factors that make the oil-state Venezuela, which is generally characterized by a low level of violence, an outlier among the oil countries as a whole. It applies a newly elaborated “context approach” that systematically considers domestic and international contextual factors. To test the results of the systematic analysis, two periods with a moderate increase in internal violence in Venezuela are subsequently analyzed, in the second part of the paper, from a comparative-historical perspective. The findings demonstrate that oil, in interaction with fluctuating non-resource-specific contextual conditions, has had ambiguous effects: On the one hand, oil has explicitly served as a conflict-reducing and partly democracy-promoting factor, principally through large-scale socioeconomic redistribution, widespread clientelistic structures, and corruption. On the other hand, oil has triggered violence—primarily through socioeconomic causal mechanisms (central keywords: decline of oil abundance and resource management) and secondarily through the long-term degradation of political institutions. While clientelism and corruption initially had a stabilizing effect, in the long run they exacerbated the delegitimization of the traditional political elite. Another crucial finding is that the impact and relative importance of oil with respect to the increase in violence seems to vary significantly depending on the specific subtype of violence. Annegret Mähler 2009-10 Venezuela, natural resources, oil, political economy, violence, contextual sensitivity http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:por:fepwps:343&r=ene Given a panel of oil producing countries, we show that a higher oil concentration is associated with an increase in economic growth through capital efficiency in: (i) countries with medium and low income per head from East Asia & Pacific and Latin America & the Caribbean, classified as followers in terms of technology-convergence clubs; (ii) countries with high income inequality. In our view, the overall results reflect the broader scope for factor efficiency increases in less developed countries arising from the oil industry, which is characterised by a highly globalised know-how. Nuno Torres, Óscar Afonso, Isabel Soares 2009-11 Energy; Economic growth; Panel data http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2009_12.rdf&r=ene The growing presence of financial operators in the oil markets has modified oil price dynamics. The diffusion of techniques based on extrapolative expectations – such as feedback trading – leads to departures of prices from their fundamental values and increases their variability. Oil price changes are here associated with changes in stocks, bonds and effective USD exchange rate. The feedback trading mechanism is combined with an ICAPM and provides a model which is then estimated in a CCC GARCH-M framework, both the risk premium and the feedback trading components of the conditional means being nonlinear functions of the system’s conditional variances and covariances. The empirical analysis identifies a structural change in the year 2000. From then on oil returns tend to become more reactive to the remaining assets of the model and feedback trading more pervasive. A comparison is drawn between three and four asset minimum variance portfolios in the two sub-periods, 1992-1999 and 2000-2008. Oil acquires in the second period, besides its standard properties as a physical commodity, the characteristics of a financial asset. Indeed, the trade-off between risk and returns – measured here by the average return per unit of risk index – indicates that in the last decade oil diversifies away the empirical risk of our portfolio. Giulio Cifarelli, Giovanna Paladino 2009 oil price dynamics; oil price dynamics; feedback trading; multivariate GARCH-M; portfolio allocation. http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sda:rerepo:200902&r=ene The goal of public policies is to connect desired ends with practical means toward their achievement. How the desired ends are determined, and whose goals and objectives they incorporate, depends upon the culture and political system of the country in question. With few exceptions, policies change over time to reflect changed perspectives and understanding of the world around us. This is true regardless of the policy area in question. Thus, how societies view and manage their mineral resources has evolved in response to public attitudes, societal needs, economic circumstances, cultural perspectives, political orientations, technological advancements, and geological knowledge. In this paper we examine how the scope of concern has changed for mineral policy. We then review the overarching issues that have in recent years been considered essential components of mineral policies. We point out how neoclassical microeconomics has influenced recent policy design. We then use a market flow diagram to illustrate how policies can be focused at specific market issues. We next discuss mineral resources in the context of sustainable development. We identify issues that become relevant when the frame of reference is enlarged beyond ensuring supply and capturing economic rent. We show that policy based solely on neoclassical economics may not be able to effectively incorporate these issues. Slavko V. Šolar, Deborah J. Shields, Michael D. Miller 2009-07 mineral policy, sustainable development, environmental economics, neoclassical economics, policy, sustainability, ecological economics http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fup:wpaper:0096&r=ene This paper discusses the new possibilities that exploration of oil from the Pré-sal reserves open to the Brazilian economy, which could become one of the largest oil producer and exporter. Three key aspects are discussed in the paper. First, the role played by Petrobras and its ambiguous position as a firm that seeks profits but which is at the same time an instrument of the energy policy of the Brazilian government. The second is the emergence of a debate on the legislation and rules that would be in place to organize oil exploration and distribute its benefits to the whole society. Thirdly, it addresses the forms and viability of oil exploration in these conditions. The paper thus aims to discuss whether the Pré-sal could effectively produce benefits to the Brazilian society. Armando Dalla Costa, Elson Rodrigo de Souza-Santos 2009 Pré-sal; regulatory mark; exploration model; Petrobras http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eth:wpswif:09-120&r=ene We analyze an economy in which sectors are heterogeneous with respect to the intensity of natural resource use. Long-term dynamics are driven by resource prices, sectoral composition, and directed technical change. We study the balanced growth path and determine stability conditions. Technical change is found to be biased towards the resource-intensive sector. Resource taxes have no impact on dynamics except when the tax rate varies over time. Constant research subsidies raise the growth rate while increasing subsidies have the opposite effect. We also find that supporting sectors by providing them with productivity enhancing public goods can raise the growth rate of the economy and additionally provide an effective tool for structural policy. Karen Pittel, Lucas Bretschger 2009-10 sustainable development, sectoral heterogeneity, directed technical change http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp931&r=ene In this paper, we discuss potential developments of the world natural gas industry at the horizon of 2030. We use the World Gas Model (WGM), a dynamic, strategic representation of world natural gas production, trade, and consumption between 2005 and 2030. We specify a "base case" which defines the business-as-usual assumptions based on forecasts of the world energy markets. We then analyze the sensitivity of the world natural gas system with scenarios: i) the emergence of large volumes of unconventional North American natural gas reserves, such as shale gas; ii) on the contrary, tightly constrained reserves of conventional natural gas reserves in the world; and iii) the impact of CO2-constraints and the emergence of a competing environmental friendly "backstop technology". Regional scenarios that have a global impact are: iv) the full halt of Russian and Caspian natural gas exports to Western Europe; v) sharply constrained production and export activities in the Arab Gulf; vi) heavily increasing demand for natural gas in China and India; and finally vii) constraints on liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure development on the US Pacific Coast. Our results show considerable changes in production, consumption, traded volumes, and prices between the scenarios. Investments in pipelines, LNG terminals and storage are also affected. However, overall the world natural gas industry is resilient to local disturbances and can compensate local supply disruptions with natural gas from other sources. Long-term supply security does not seem to be at risk. Daniel Huppmann, Ruud Egging, Franziska Holz, Sophia Ruester, Christian von Hirschhausen, Steven A. Gabriel 2009 Natural gas, investments, reserves, climate policy http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2009.84&r=ene In a continuous-time framework we study the technology and investment choice problem of a continuous co-digestion biogas plant dealing with randomly fluctuating relative convenience of input factor costs. Input factors enter into the productive process together mixed according to a given initial rule. Being inputs relative convenience stochastically evolving, a successive revision of the initial rule may be desirable. Hence, when the venture starts the manager may or may not install a flexible technology allowing for such option. Investment is irreversible and flexibility is costly. The problem is solved determining in the light of future prospects the optimal revision and then playing backward fixing the investment timing rule. Michele Moretto, Luca Di Corato 2009-10 Factor Proportions, Technological Choice, Flexibility, Real Options, Alternative Energy Source http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tac:wpaper:6&r=ene Biofuels in the world markets: A Computable General Equilibrium assessment of environmental costs related to land use changes Antoine BOUET, Betina DIMARANAN, Hugo VALIN 2009-11 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp939&r=ene The aim of this work is to evaluate the impact of domestic and global biofuel policies on Germany's agricultural sector. The central part of our study is divided into four sections. Section 2 presents in detail the issues that make biofuels a debated topic in today's economic policies. Fundamental aspects of our energy consumption patterns and the geographic location of our natural resources are highlighted together with a quantitative analysis of the recent surge in biofuels output capacity and estimates of their near-future deployment. An introduction to current and future biofuels production technologies is coupled with an overview of recent studies that assess their net contribution to harmful gaseous emissions and energy efficiency. The concerns associated with rising food prices and their likely causes are then briefly examined. Section 3 provides a thorough description of the subsidy, taxation and protection measures granted to biofuels across the world. Current governmental policies in the EU and its member states are given special attention. Section 4 presents the current literature on economic modelling and focuses on partial equilibrium (AGLINK-COSIMO, Impact, Esim, etc.) and general equilibrium frameworks (EPPA, GTAP, etc.). Section 5 simulates the impact of domestic and global biofuel policies in Germany within a Computable General Equilibrium framework. The LEITAP model is introduced. A description of the analysed scenarios is given on the basis of the envisaged biofuel blending mandates described in section 3. The simulation results are then evaluated with respect to production, prices, international trade and land use of the relevant commodities. The outcome clearly indicates that current biofuels policies significantly affect food markets as well as land allocation. The conclusion summarizes the main findings of our study and draws a comparison with results of other publications. Giovanni Sorda, Martin Banse, Claudia Kemfert 2009 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ude:wpaper:1109&r=ene The paper studies the present situation of the biofuels industry in Uruguay and its possible perspectives. The development of this type of industry is a feasible option for the long run, in order to decrease the deep concentration of the energetic matrix and the high dependency from imported energetic sources. Nowadays, these activities are in the initial stages in the fields of production, regulation and promotion. Therefore, the medium and long run perspectives show certain degree of uncertainty, with positive factors but also limitations. Among the good aspects are the existence of natural comparative advantages and the legal framework. The more noticeable limitations are the problems in the availability of raw materials and the lack of development of the technological and logistic activities related with the production and trading processes. Besides this, other important issues are the institutional organization of the market and its operation, the configuration of precise and permanent rules of the game, and the deep exploration of possible regional complementarities, specially with Brazil. The idea is to benefit from the improvements in the scale and technology of these agroindustrial chains. Gustavo Bittencourt, Nicolás Reig Lorenzi 2009-07 biofuels, energy matrix, biodiesel, ethanol, biomass, MERCOSUR. http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uma:perirb:response_to_heritage_foundation_august4&r=ene <span class="desc">The Heritage Foundation recently released a response to “The Economic Benefits of Investing in Clean Energy" by Robert Pollin, James Heintz & Heidi Garrett-Peltier, which, surprisingly, finds consensus on the central point of that study: that investments in clean energy will generate roughly three times more jobs than spending the same amount of money within our fossil fuel energy infrastructure. Where the PERI authors and Janet Campbell of Heritage differ, however, is over the question of whether this job creation is inherently a good thing for the U.S. economy. In this brief response paper, Pollin, Heintz & Garrett-Peltier lay out their case that the U.S. economy will benefit greatly from creating an abundance of new job opportunities for people at all levels of income and credentials, and that it is a double benefit that these new job opportunities will mean mobilizing the U.S. workforce to the project of building a clean-energy economy and thereby defeating global warming. </span> James Heintz, Heidi Garrett-Peltier, Robert Pollin 2009 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uma:perips:economic_benefits&r=ene This study, commissioned by the Center for American Progress, examines  broader economic considerations—jobs, incomes, and economic growth—through the lens of two government initiatives this year by the Obama administration and Congress. The first is the set of clean-energy provisions incorporated within the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. The second is the proposed American Clean Energy and Security Act  which is now before Congress. <p></p><p>Our analysis in this paper shows that these measures operating together can generate roughly $150 billion per year in new clean-energy investments in the United States over the next decade. This estimated $150 billion in new spending annually includes government funding but is notably dominated by private-sector investments. We estimate this sustained expansion in clean-energy investments can generate a net increase of about 1.7 million jobs. This expansion in job opportunities can continue as long as the economy maintains a commitment to clean-energy investments in the $150 billion per year range. If clean-energy investments expand still faster, overall job creation will increase correspondingly. These investment could, therefore, not only guide us out of our fossil-fuel dependent crisis, but serve as a powerful engine of economic recovery and long-term economic vigor in the U.S. </p><p>>> <a title="Opens internal link in current window" class="internal-link" href="http://www.peri.umass.edu/?id=475">Read more about "The Economic Benefits of Investing in Clean Energy" and download state fact sheets</a><br />>> <a title="Initiates file download" class="download" href="http://www.peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/other_publication_types/green_economics/economic_benefits/economic_benefits.PDF">Download "The Economic Benefits of Investing in Clean Energy"<br /></a></p><p></p> Robert Pollin, James Heintz, Heidi Garrett-Peltier 2009 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uma:perips:green_prosperity&r=ene <p><span class="desc">This study, co-commissioned by Natural Resources Defense Council and Green For All, considers the employment and other policy effects of a $150 billion annual investment in clean-energy specifically in terms of its ability to raise living standards for lower-income workers and families. This report shows that investments in clean energy can benefit lower-income families first by expanding job opportunities, and also by lowering household utility bills through energy efficiency investments and transportation costs by making public transportation more accessible. </span></p><p>>> <a title="Opens internal link in current window" class="internal-link" href="http://www.peri.umass.edu/?id=473">Read more about the study and download state and regional fact sheets here</a></p> Robert Pollin, Jeannette Wicks-Lim, Heidi Garrett-Peltier 2009 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2257&r=ene This paper presents some such case studies for co-and tri-generating various cold and hot utilities using innovative designs of Matrix and Tube-Tube Heat Exchangers and Multi-Utility Heat Pumps developed at Heat Pump Laboratory in IIT Bombay (HPL_IITB). Techno-economic benefits of some of these installations deployed in domestic, industrial and commercial applications are discussed. Rane M V 2009 case studies, cold, hot utilies, Matrix, tube, heat exchangers, domestic, industrial, commercial, laboratory, IIT, bombay, designs, technologies, industrial http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:unumer:2009043&r=ene Using the reaction of hydrogen with oxygen to water in order to produce electricity and heat, promises a high electrical efficiency even in small devices which can be installed close to the consumer. This approach seems to be an impressive idea to contribute to a viable future energy supply under the restrictions of climate change policy. Major reasons currently hampering the diffusion of such technologies for house energy supply in Germany are analysed in this paper. The barriers revealed, include high production costs as well as economic and legal obstacles for installing the devices so that they can be operated in competition to central power plants, beside others in tenancies. Droste-Franke, Bert, Kruger, Jorg, Lingner, Stephan, Ziesemer, Thomas H.W. 2009 fuel cell, diffusion processes, valuation of environmental effects, technological innovation http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00429034_v1&r=ene This paper examines how transmission coordinates with generation to the long term in a liberalized power system. We rely on a modular analysis to separate the mechanisms of coordination between generation and transmission of electricity into distinct modules. The governance structure of transmission completes this analysis framework. We then show that in a logic of complementarity, this governance structure influences the options that TSO implements to manage effectively power flows. Although locational signals are necessary to guide the installation of new power plants, the governance structure explains that investment in network may be the only effective method of longterm coordination between generation and transmission. Vincent Rious, Jean-Michel Glachant, Yannick Perez, Philippe Dessante 2009-06-20 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rep:wpaper:2009-05&r=ene Power interruptions are a typical characteristic of national grids in developing countries.Manufacturing, processing, refrigeration and other facilities that require a dependable supply of power, and might be considered a small grid within the larger national grid,employ diesel generators for backup. In this study, we develop a stochastic simulation model of a very small grid connected to an unreliable national grid to show that the introduction of wind generated power can, despite its intermittency, reduce costs significantly. For a small grid with a peak load of 2.85 MW and diesel generating capacity of 3.75 MW provided by two diesel generators, the savings from using wind energy (based on wind data for Mekelle, Ethiopia) can amount to over a million dollars per month. While the savings from deployment of wind turbines are enormous, the variability of wind prevents elimination of the smaller diesel unit, although this unit operates less frequently than in the absence of wind power. G. Cornelis van Kooten, Linda Wong 2009-09 wind energy and development; stochastic simulation of electricity grids;economic savings from wind power http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:unumer:2009047&r=ene Environmental innovation is an essential part of a knowledge based economy, as environmental innovation makes economies more efficient by encouraging and facilitating the use of fewer material or energy inputs per unit of output. In this respect, environmental innovation replaces material inputs with knowledge. Environmental innovation should also result in fewer externalities, or negative environmental impacts, which affect our health and well-being, also in terms of global climate change. Technology shifts caused by technological breakthroughs, rapid changes in demand for resources, or environmental imperatives could also impel societies to invest more heavily in research on how to use energy and other resources more efficiently. The main goal of this paper is to explore and identify relevant indicators for environmental innovation that could be used to develop innovation policy for all economic sectors, as well as for the field of environmental technologies. This is done firstly with the help of a qualitative model presenting the eco-innovation chain. Based on both literature and our data analysis, our chosen key indicators include measures on: environmental regulations and venture capital for the eco-industry; environmental publications, patents and business R&D; eco-industry exports and FDI; sales from environmentally beneficial innovation across sectors; and environmental impacts related to energy intensity and resource productivity of economies. Finding key eco-innovation indicators related to such factors is important for policy makers, as environmental innovation policy is required to counter the two market failures associated with environmental pollution and the innovation and diffusion of new technologies. Kanerva, Minna, Arundel, Anthony, Kemp, Rene 2009 Environmental innovation, environmental goods and services, innovation indicators, CIS, environmental impacts, European Union http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaac:2009/10-en&r=ene This article recommends approaches to take in designing sustainable educational environments. The authors present recent examples of UK school buildings that reduce carbon emissions and capitalise on renewable energy sources, and predict how schools will respond to energy needs in the future.<P>Durabilité et innovation dans les écoles du Royaume-Uni<BR>Cet article émet des recommandations sur les approches à adopter en vue de la conception d’environnements pédagogiques durables. Les auteurs présentent des exemples récents de bâtiments scolaires britanniques qui réduisent leurs émissions de carbone et capitalisent sur les sources d’énergie renouvelables, et prédisent la manière dont les écoles répondront à leurs besoins énergétiques dans le futur. Wayne Head, Richard Buckingham 2009-11 sustainable development, United Kingdom, learning environment, educational buildings, school infrastructure http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uma:periwp:wp198&r=ene In this working paper, Robert Pollin responds to critics who purport to debunk “myths” about recent studies on the employment effects of investments in the clean energy economy. These papers are written as a response to what they term the “rapidly gaining popularity” of four studies that attempt to show the employment gains that can emerge from investments in building a clean energy economy in the United States, including <i>Green Recovery</i>, co-published by the Center for American Progress and PERI. Overall, these papers offer no challenge to the central explanations as to how investing in the green economy will provide significant benefits throughout the U.S. economy. Robert Pollin 2009 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:rb2009/2/2&r=ene Fitz Gerald, John, Keeney, Mary, Scott, Susan 2009-06 qec http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2009.82&r=ene Accelerating the development of less GHG intensive technologies and promoting their global diffusion - in particular in fast-growing emerging economies - is imperative in achieving the transition to a low-carbon economy. Consequently, technology is at the core of current discussions about the post-Kyoto regime. The purpose of this study is to fuel this discussion by providing an in-depth analysis of the geographic distribution of climate mitigation inventions since 1978 and their international diffusion on a global scale. We use the EPO/OECD World Patent Statistical Database (PATSTAT) which includes patents from 81 national and international patent offices. Note that the Least Developed Countries patent a negligible number of inventions, meaning that the geographical scope of the study is limited to industrialized countries and emerging economies. In this study, patent counts are used to measure the output of innovation but also the transfer of inventions across borders on the ground that an innovator patents his/her invention in a foreign country because he/she plans to exploit it commercially there. They are the only indicator available today that provides a comprehensive view on innovation and technology diffusion on a global scale. Patent data also present drawbacks. First, patents are not the only tool available to inventors to protect their inventions. Second, successful technology transfers also involve the transfer of know-how. Still one can reasonably assume that patent counts are positively correlated to the quantity of non-patented innovations and transfers. We consider 13 different classes of technologies with significant global GHG emission abatement potentials, and analyze inventive activities and international technology transfer between 1978 and 2003. The technologies considered are seven renewable energy technologies (wind, solar, geothermal, ocean energy, biomass, waste-to-energy, and hydropower), methane destruction, climate-friendly cement, energy conservation in buildings, motor vehicle fuel injection, energy-efficient lighting and Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS). Matthieu Glachant, Antoine Dechezleprêtre, Ivan Hascic, Nick Johnstone, Empirical Policy Analysis Unit, OECD Environment Directorate 2009-10 Climate Change, Mitigation Technologies, Patent Data http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:2009-10-02&r=ene This paper discusses some of the impacts attributed to climate change that are likely to hit Southern Africa as a result of increasing global greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. As South Africa is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions and currently ranked first in Africa, the paper assesses the country.s greenhouse gas emissions profile and possible future projections of emissions and their implications. It then discusses the strategic interventions proposed by South Africa in reducing the gap in emissions between what is required by science and what would happen if development continues at current rates without abating greenhouse gas emissions. Given that the majority of emissions are a result of energy consumption, the paper provides practical solutions to themes such as energy efficiency mostly for the industrial and commercial sectors. With international treaties on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (e.g. Kyoto protocol), there are business opportunities in the area of climate change mitigation. Thus, the paper finally discusses the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) scenario in South Africa and how the country can benefit from other emission trading schemes being practiced in different regions of the world. Jongikhaya Witi; Vaibhav Chaturvedi 2009-10-27 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:461&r=ene Carbon leakage is a major concern for policymakers involved with environmental initiatives such as the European Union’s emissions trading scheme and similar cap-and-trade proposals in the United States, Australia, and elsewhere. This paper provides a framework for understanding the drives underlying carbon leakage at the level of an individual sector in which only a subset of firms is covered by such regulation. It provides simple formulae to estimate leakage rates using information on industry characteristics that is typically available to the analyst. Illustrative estimates for the steel industry in the EU ETS suggest carbon leakage of 25-30% or (much) higher - unless environmental-efficiency improvements by regulated firms are substantial. Robert A. Ritz 2009 Abatement, Cap-and-trade, carbon tax, Cost pass-through, Emissions trading, Free allocation, Market structure http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:ceswps:ces09.12&r=ene We investigate how moral concerns about permit trading affect an endogenous pollution permit trading equilibrium, where governments choose non-cooperatively the amount of permits they allocate to domestic industries. Politicians may feel reluctant to allow permit trading and/or may prefer that abatement is undertaken domestically due to moral concerns. This will have an effect on the initial permit allocations, and, therefore, on global emissions. The impact on global emissions depends on the precise formulation of the moral concerns, but under reasonable assumptions, we show that global emissions may increase. Thus, doing what is perceived as good does not always yield the desired outcome. However, this can be offset by restrictions on permit trading when governments have moral concerns about this trade. Johan EYCKMANS, Snorre KVERNDOKK 2009-06 Tradable emission permits, international environmental agreements, non-cooperative game theory, moral motivation, identity. http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00200894_v3&r=ene An awareness and opinion survey on Carbon Capture and Storage was conducted on a representative sample of French aged 15 years and above. About 6\% of respondents were able to provide a satisfying definition of the technology. The key question about `approval of or opposition to' the use of CCS in France was asked twice, first after presenting the technology, then after exposing the potential adverse consequences. Approval rates, 59\% and 38\%, show that there is no a priori rejection of the technology. The sample was split in two to test for a semantic effect: questioning one half about `Stockage' (English: storage), the other about `Sequestration'. Manipulating the vocabulary had no statistically significant effect on approval rates. Stockage is more meaningful, but does not convey the idea of permanent monitoring. Minh Ha-Duong, Ana Sofia Campos, Alain Nadai 2009 Carbon capture and storage; public opinion http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uma:periwp:wp207&r=ene <p> The risks of extreme weather events are typically being estimated, by federal agencies and others, with historical frequency data assumed to reflect future probabilities. These estimates may not yet have adequately factored in the effects of past and future climate change, despite strong evidence of a changing climate. They have relied on historical data stretching back as far as fifty or a hundred years that may be increasingly unrepresentative of future conditions. </p><p>Government and private organizations that use these risk assessments in designing programs and projects with long expected lifetimes may therefore be investing too little to make existing and newly constructed infrastructure resistant to the effects of changing climate. New investments designed to these historical risk standards may suffer excess damages and poor returns. This paper illustrates the issue with an economic analysis of the risks of relatively intense hurricanes striking the New York City region. </p> Robert Repetto, Robert Easton 2009 climate; global warming; natural disasters; risk; adaptation http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00430051_v1&r=ene Many small island states have developed economies that are strongly dependent on tuna fisheries. Consequently, they are vulnerable to the socio-economic effects of climate change and variability, processes that are known to impact upon tuna fisheries distribution and productivity. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of climate oscillations on the tuna-dependent economy of Seychelles. Using a multiplier approach, the direct, indirect and induced economic effects of the tuna industry declined by 58%, 34% and 60%, respectively, in 1998, the year of a strong warming event in the western Indian Ocean. Patterns in tuna purse seine vessel expenditures in port were substantially modified by strong climate oscillations. A cointegration time-series model predicted that a 40% decline in tuna landings and transhipment in Port Victoria, a value commensurate with that observed in 1998, would result in a 34% loss for the local economy. Of several indices tested, the Indian Oscillation Index was the best at predicting the probability of entering a regime of low landings and transhipment. In 2007, a moderate climate anomaly was compounded by prior overfishing to produce a stronger that expected impact on the fishery and economy of Seychelles. The effects of fishing and climate variability on tuna stocks are complex and pose significant challenges for fisheries management and the economic development of countries in the Indian Ocean. Jan Robinson, Patrice Guillotreau, Ramòn Jiménez-Toribio, Frédéric Lantz, Lesya Nadzon, Juliette Dorizo, Calvin Gerry, Francis Marsac 2009 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2009.80&r=ene The aim of this paper is to present a search model in the field of environmental economics, where so-called clean and dirty producers enter the trading market, both looking for a partner with whom to exchange the goods they are endowed with. The model derived in this paper is rather simple. Nevertheless, it is able to produce a series of interesting results and useful insights, and is conveniently used here as a framework to explain the functioning of Joint Implementation programmes for polluting emissions’ reduction. Giovanni Bella 2009-10 Environmental economics, Search theory, Market failures http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2009.81&r=ene The climate-trade nexus gains increasing attention as governments are taking great efforts to forge a post-2012 climate change regime to succeed the Kyoto Protocol. This raises the issues of the scope of trade-related measures and of when and how they could be used. This paper discusses how far trade-related measures should be incorporated in that context. Drawing on an analogy to the Montreal Protocol and comparing developing country’s climate mitigation and adaptation needs with the funding available, the paper argues that such measures should initially be applied only among Annex I or II countries. To discipline the use of unilateral trade measures at the international level, the paper emphasizes a need to define comparable climate efforts. Moreover, the Lieberman-Warner bill in the U.S. Senate - taken as a proxy for future U.S. climate legislation - is assessed, and found to be neither effective nor likely to be WTO-consistent. The paper is concluded by arguing that, in order to encourage developing countries to do more to combat climate change, developed countries should focus on carrots. Sticks can be incorporated, but only if they are credible and realistic and serve as a useful supplement to push developing countries to take actions or adopt policies and measures earlier than would otherwise have been the case. ZhongXiang Zhang 2009-10 Post-2012 climate negotiations, Trade-related measures, Lieberman-Warner bill, WTO, Montreal Protocol, Developing countries, United States http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ucdeco:09-4&r=ene Let there be a positive (exogenous) probability that, at each date, the human species will disappear. We postulate an Ethical Observer (EO) who maximizes intertemporal welfare under this uncertainty, with expected-utility preferences. Various social welfare criteria entail alternative von Neumann- Morgenstern utility functions for the EO: utilitarianism, Rawlsianism, and an extension of the latter that corrects for the size of population. Our analysis covers, first, a cake-eating economy, where the utilitarian and Rawlsian recommend the same allocation. Second, a productive economy with education and capital. There, however, the recommendations of the two Ethical Observers are in general different. But when the utilitarian program diverges, then it is optimal for the extended Rawlsian to ignore the uncertainty concerning the possible disappearance of the human species in the future. We conclude discussing the implications for intergenerational welfare maximization in the presence of global warming. Llavador, Humberto, Roemer, John E., Silvestre, Joaquim 2009-03 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ucdeco:09-5&r=ene Climate science indicates that climate stabilization requires low GHG emissions. Is this consistent with nondecreasing human welfare? Our welfare index, called quality of life (QuoL), emphasizes education, knowledge, and the environment. We construct and calibrate a multigenerational model with intertemporal links provided by education, physical capital, knowledge and the environment. We reject discounted utilitarianism and adopt, first, the Intergenerational Maximin criterion, and, second, Human Development Optimization, that maximizes the QuoL of the first generation subject to a given future rate of growth. We apply these criteria to our calibrated model via a novel algorithm inspired by the turnpike property. The computed paths yield levels of QuoL higher than the year 2000 level for all generations. They require the doubling of the fraction of labor resources devoted to the creation of knowledge relative to the reference level, whereas the fractions of labor allocated to consumption and leisure are similar to the reference ones. On the other hand, higher growth rates require substantial increases in the fraction of labor devoted to education, together with moderate increases in the fractions of labor devoted to knowledge and the investment in physical capital. Llavador, Humberto, Roemer, John E., Silvestre, Joaquim 2009-03