http://lists.repec.org/mailman/listinfo/nep-cmp Computational Economics 2012-02-01 Stan Miles http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2011-04&r=cmp In the aftermath of the devastating nuclear fallout in Japan, there has been a harsh debate surrounding the role of nuclear energy in electricity generation. A changing role will have economic consequences on production, consumption, and international trade. To quantity these effects, we implemented simulations with a global CGE model and database. The simulation results show that reductions in the use of nuclear for electric power generation may have profound negative impacts on the Japanese economy. A nuclear accident at the Fukushima power plant changed the future direction of Japanese energy policy as well as Asian energy policy. These policies are integrated via technological, financial, and nuclear energy knowledge sharing activities within the region. The main objective of this policy brief is to shed some light on the following question: what would be the economic consequences of altering the source of power generation from nuclear to fossil fuels? This Japanese case study offers policy implications for both Japan and the region as a whole. Ken Itakura 2011-12-01 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2011.93&r=cmp Carbon-based border tax adjustments (BTAs) have recently been proposed by some OECD countries to level the carbon playing field and target major emerging economies. This paper applies a multi-sector dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the impacts of the BTAs implemented by US and EU on China’s sectoral carbon emissions. The results indicate that BTAs will cut down export prices and transmit the effects to the whole economy, reducing sectoral output-demands from both supply side and demand side. On the supply side, sectors might substitute away from exporting toward domestic market, increasing sectoral supply; while on the demand side, the domestic income may be strikingly cut down due to the decrease in export price, decreasing sectoral demand. Furthermore, such shrinkage of demand may similarly reduce energy prices, which leads to energy substitution effect and somewhat stimulates carbon emissions. Depending on the relative strength of the output-demand effect and energy substitution effect, sectoral carbon emissions and energy demands will vary across sectors, with increasing, decreasing or moving in a different direction. These results suggest that an incentive mechanism to encourage the widespread use of environment-friendly fuels and technologies will be more effective. Qin Bao, Ling Tang, ZhongXiang Zhang, Han Qiao, Shouyang Wang 2011-12 Border Carbon Tax Adjustments, Computable General Equilibrium Model, Carbon Emissions http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2011.83&r=cmp This paper applies real options theory to establish an overseas oil investment evaluation model that is based on Monte Carlo simulation and is solved by the Least Squares Monte-Carlo method. To better reflect the reality of overseas oil investment, our model has incorporated not only the uncertainties of oil price and investment cost but also the uncertainties of exchange rate and investment environment. These unique features have enabled our model to be best equipped to evaluate the value of oil overseas investment projects of three oil field sizes (large, medium, small) and under different resource tax systems (royalty tax and production sharing contracts). In our empirical setting, we have selected China as an investor country and Indonesia as an investee country as a case study. Our results show that the investment risks and project values of small sized oil fields are more sensitive to changes in the uncertainty factors than the large and medium sized oil fields. Furthermore, among the uncertainty factors considered in the model, the investment risk of overseas oil investment may be underestimated if no consideration is given of the impacts of exchange rate and investment environment. Finally, as there is an important trade-off between oil resource investee country and overseas oil investor, in medium and small sized oil investment negotiation the oil company should try to increase the cost oil limit in production sharing contract and avoid the term of a windfall profits tax to reduce the investment risk of overseas oil fields. Lei Zhu, ZhongXiang Zhang, Ying Fan 2011-11 Overseas Oil Investment, Project Value, Real Options, Least Squares Monte-Carlo http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trn:utwpas:1205&r=cmp We study the interactions of banks and ?rms within a leverage cycle to understand how capacity utilisation and capital investment interact with funding costs, leverage by banks and ?rms, and liquidity. We show in a simulation study that when ?rms can grow and die by becoming insolvent, and when banks can grow and die as their bad debts increase to unsustainable levels, the real economy cycles around a leverage cycle. Antoine Godin, Stephen Kinsella 2012 Leverage, capital investment, capacity utilization, simulation modeling. http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36062&r=cmp The bi-objective winner determination problem (2WDP-SC) of a combinatorial procurement auction for transport contracts comes up to a multi-criteria set covering problem. We are given a set B of bundle bids. A bundle bid b in B consists of a bidding carrier c_b, a bid price p_b, and a set tau_b of transport contracts which is a subset of the set T of tendered transport contracts. Additionally, the transport quality q_t,c_b is given which is expected to be realized when a transport contract t is executed by a carrier c_b. The task of the auctioneer is to find a set X of winning bids (X is subset of B), such that each transport contract is part of at least one winning bid, the total procurement costs are minimized, and the total transport quality is maximized. This article presents a metaheuristic approach for the 2WDP-SC which integrates the greedy randomized adaptive search procedure, large neighborhood search, and self-adaptive parameter setting in order to find a competitive set of non-dominated solutions. The procedure outperforms existing heuristics. Computational experiments performed on a set of benchmark instances show that, for small instances, the presented procedure is the sole approach that succeeds to find all Pareto-optimal solutions. For each of the large benchmark instances, according to common multi-criteria quality indicators of the literature, it attains new best-known solution sets. Buer, Tobias, Kopfer, Herbert 2012-01-19 Pareto optimization; multi-criteria winner determination; combinatorial auction; GRASP; LNS http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2011.96&r=cmp Vehicle taxation based on CO2 emissions is increasingly being adopted worldwide in order to shift consumer purchases to low-carbon cars, yet little is known about the effectiveness and overall economic impact of these schemes. We focus on feebate schemes, which impose a fee on high-carbon vehicles and give a rebate to purchasers of low-carbon automobiles. e estimate a discrete choice model of demand for automobiles in Germany and simulate the impact of alternative feebate schemes on emissions, consumer welfare, public revenues and firm profits. The analysis shows that a well-designed scheme can lead to emission reductions without reducing overall welfare. Adamos Adamou, Sofronis Clerides, Theodoros Zachariadis 2011-12 CO2 emissions, German Automobile Market, Feebates, Carbon Taxation http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00661012&r=cmp We consider a prototypical representative-agent forward-looking model, and study the low frequency variability of the data when the agent's beliefs about the model are updated through linear learning algorithms. We nd that learning in this context can generate strong persistence. The degree of persistence depends on the weights agents place on past observations when they update their beliefs, and on the magnitude of the feedback from expectations to the endogenous variable. When the learning algorithm is recursive least squares, long memory arises when the coe cient on expectations is su ciently large. In algorithms with discounting, long memory provides a very good approximation to the low-frequency variability of the data. Hence long memory arises endogenously, due to the self-referential nature of the model, without any persistence in the exogenous shocks. This is distinctly di erent from the case of rational expectations, where the memory of the endogenous variable is determined exogenously. Finally, this property of learning is used to shed light on some well-known empirical puzzles. Guillaume Chevillon, Sophocles Mavroeidis 2011-11-24 Learning ; Long Memory ; Persistence ; Present-Value Models http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2011.74&r=cmp Uncertainty about long-term climate policy is a major driving force in the evolution of the carbon market price. Since this price enters the investment decision process of regulated firms, this uncertainty increases the cost of capital for investors and might deter invest-ments into new technologies at the company level. We apply a real options-based approach to assess the impact of climate change policy in the form of a constant or growing price floor on investment decisions of a single firm in a competitive environment. This firm has the opportunity to switch from a high-carbon “dirty” technology to a low-carbon “clean” technology. Using Monte Carlo simulation and dynamic programming techniques for real market data, we determine the optimal CO2 price floor level and growth rate in order to induce investments into the low-carbon technology. We show these findings to be robust to a large variety of input parameter settings. Alexander Brauneis, Michael Loretz, Roland Mestel, Stefan Palan 2011-10 Carbon price, price floor, technological change, investment decision, real option approach http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpc:wpaper:3212&r=cmp World food prices have experienced dramatic increases in recent years. These ?shocks? affect food importers and exporters alike. Vietnam is a major exporter of rice, and rice is also a key item in domestic production, employment and consumption. Accordingly, rice price shocks from the world market have general equilibrium impacts and as such, their implications for household welfare are not known ex ante. In this paper we present a framework for understanding the direct and indirect welfare effects of a global market shock of this kind. We quantify transmission of the shock from global indicator prices to domestic markets. Then we use an applied general equilibrium model to simulate the economic effects of the price changes. A recursive mapping to a nationally representative household living standards survey permits us to identify in detail the ceteris paribus effects of the shock on household incomes and welfare. In this analysis, interregional and intersectoral labor market adjustments emerge as key channels transmitting the effects of global price shocks across sectors and among households. Ian Coxhead, Vu Hoang Linh, Le Dong Tam 2012 Vietnam, rice, poverty, labor mobility, general equilibrium, microsimulation. http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecu:wpaper:2011-02&r=cmp We apply a novel Quantile Monte Carlo (QMC) model to measure extreme risk of various European industrial sectors both prior to and during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The QMC model involves an application of Monte Carlo Simulation and Quantile Regression techniques to the Merton structural credit model. Two research questions are addressed in this study. The first question is whether there is a significant difference in distance to default (DD) between the 50% and 95% quantiles as measured by the QMC model. A substantial difference in DD between the two quantiles was found. The second research question is whether relative industry risk changes between the pre-GFC and GFC periods at the extreme quantile. Changes were found with the worst deterioration experienced by Energy, Utilities, Consumer Discretionary and Financials; and the strongest improvement shown by Telecommunication, IT and Consumer goods. Overall, we find a significant increase in credit risk for all sectors using this model as compared to the traditional Merton approach. These findings could be important to banks and regulators in measuring and providing for credit risk in extreme circumstances. David E Allen, R.R Boffey, R. J. Powell 2011-02 Asset Selection, Factor Model, DEA, Quantile Regression http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1847&r=cmp This paper studies discounted stochastic games perfect or imperfect public monitoring and the opportunity to conduct voluntary monetary transfers. We show that for all discount factors every public perfect equilibrium payoff can be implemented with a simple class of equilibria that have a stationary structure on the equilibrium path and optimal penal codes with a stick and carrot structure. We develop algorithms that exactly compute or approximate the set of equilibrium payoffs and find simple equilibria that implement these payoffs. Sebastian Kranz 2012-01 Stochastic games, Monetary transfers, Computation, Imperfect public monitoring, Public perfect equilibria